{"id":46122,"date":"2026-05-04T19:24:31","date_gmt":"2026-05-04T19:24:31","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr\/uncategorized\/bny%ec%9d%98-%eb%b0%a5-%ec%83%88%eb%b9%84%ec%a7%80-rbnz-%ed%94%84%eb%9d%bc%ec%82%b0%eb%82%98-%ea%b0%80%ec%9d%b4-%ed%98%b8%eb%a5%b4%eb%ac%b4%ec%a6%88-%ed%95%b4%ed%98%91-%ec%b6%a9%ea%b2%a9\/"},"modified":"2026-05-04T19:24:31","modified_gmt":"2026-05-04T19:24:31","slug":"bny%ec%9d%98-%eb%b0%a5-%ec%83%88%eb%b9%84%ec%a7%80-rbnz-%ed%94%84%eb%9d%bc%ec%82%b0%eb%82%98-%ea%b0%80%ec%9d%b4-%ed%98%b8%eb%a5%b4%eb%ac%b4%ec%a6%88-%ed%95%b4%ed%98%91-%ec%b6%a9%ea%b2%a9","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/live-updates\/bny%ec%9d%98-%eb%b0%a5-%ec%83%88%eb%b9%84%ec%a7%80-rbnz-%ed%94%84%eb%9d%bc%ec%82%b0%eb%82%98-%ea%b0%80%ec%9d%b4-%ed%98%b8%eb%a5%b4%eb%ac%b4%ec%a6%88-%ed%95%b4%ed%98%91-%ec%b6%a9%ea%b2%a9\/","title":{"rendered":"BNY\uc758 \ubc25 \uc0c8\ube44\uc9c0 \u201cRBNZ \ud504\ub77c\uc0b0\ub098 \uac00\uc774, \ud638\ub974\ubb34\uc988 \ud574\ud611 \ucda9\uaca9 \uc774\ud6c4 \uae30\uc900\uae08\ub9ac \uc790\ub3d9 \uc778\uc0c1 \ubc30\uc81c\u201d"},"content":{"rendered":"

RBNZ(\ub274\uc9c8\ub79c\ub4dc \uc911\uc559\uc740\ud589) \uc815\ucc45\uc704\uc6d0 \ud504\ub77c\uc0b0\ub098 \uac00\uc774\ub294 \ud638\ub974\ubb34\uc988 \ud574\ud611 \uacf5\uae09 \ucda9\uaca9(\uc608: \uc6d0\uc720\u00b7\uac00\uc2a4 \uc6b4\uc1a1 \ucc28\uc9c8\ub85c \uacf5\uae09\uc774 \uc904\uc5b4 \uac00\uaca9\uc774 \uc624\ub974\ub294 \uc0c1\ud669)\uc774 \uc790\ub3d9\uc801\uc778 \uae08\ub9ac \uc778\uc0c1\uc758 \uadfc\uac70\uac00 \ub418\uc9c0 \uc54a\ub294\ub2e4\uace0 \ub9d0\ud588\ub2e4. \uadf8\ub294 \uacf5\uae09 \ucda9\uaca9\uc5d0 \ub300\ud574\uc11c\ub294 \ud1b5\uc0c1 \u201c\uc77c\uc2dc\uc801 \uc601\ud5a5\uc740 \ud06c\uac8c \ubc18\uc751\ud558\uc9c0 \uc54a\uace0 \uc9c0\ucf1c\ubcf4\ub294(\ub8e9\uc2a4\ub8e8\u00b7look-through)\u201d \uc811\uadfc\uc774 \ubc14\ub78c\uc9c1\ud558\ub2e4\uace0 \ubc1d\ud614\ub2e4.<\/p>\n

\uac00\uc774\ub294 \uacbd\uc81c\uc758 \ub3d9\uc870\ud654(\uc5ec\ub7ec \ub098\ub77c \uacbd\uae30\uac00 \uac19\uc740 \ubc29\ud5a5\uc73c\ub85c \uc6c0\uc9c1\uc774\ub294 \uc815\ub3c4)\uac00 \ub192\uace0 \uc815\ucc45 \uacf5\uc870(\uac01\uad6d\uc774 \ud568\uaed8 \ub300\uc751\ud558\ub294 \uccb4\uacc4)\uac00 \uc791\ub3d9\ud560 \ub54c\uc5d0\ub9cc \uc120\uc81c\uc801 \uae34\ucd95(\ubb3c\uac00\ub97c \ub9c9\uae30 \uc704\ud574 \ubbf8\ub9ac \uae08\ub9ac\ub97c \uc62c\ub9ac\ub294 \uac83)\uc774 \uc815\ub2f9\ud654\ub41c\ub2e4\uace0 \ub9d0\ud588\ub2e4. \uadf8\ub294 \ud604\uc7ac\ub294 \uadf8\ub7f0 \uc870\uac74\uc774 \ucda9\uc871\ub418\uc9c0 \uc54a\uc558\ub2e4\uace0 \ud3c9\uac00\ud588\ub2e4.<\/p>\n

Neutral Rate Implications<\/h3>\n

\uadf8\ub294 \uc774\ubc88 \ucda9\uaca9\uc73c\ub85c \uc911\ub9bd\uae08\ub9ac(\uacbd\uae30\ub97c \uacfc\uc5f4\uc2dc\ud0a4\uc9c0\ub3c4, \uc704\ucd95\uc2dc\ud0a4\uc9c0\ub3c4 \uc54a\ub294 \uae30\uc900 \uae08\ub9ac \uc218\uc900)\uac00 \uc62c\ub77c\uac14\ub2e4\uace0\ub3c4 \ub9d0\ud588\ub2e4. \uc774\ub294 \ud5a5\ud6c4 \uc815\ucc45 \uc815\uc0c1\ud654(\uc644\ud654\uc801\uc73c\ub85c \ub0b4\ub9b0 \uae08\ub9ac\ub97c \ub2e4\uc2dc \ud3c9\uc2dc \uc218\uc900\uc73c\ub85c \ub418\ub3cc\ub9ac\ub294 \uacfc\uc815)\uc758 \uae30\uc900\uc120\uc774 \ub354 \ub192\uc544\uc9c8 \uc218 \uc788\uc74c\uc744 \ub73b\ud55c\ub2e4. \uc774\ub7f0 \ubc1c\uc5b8\uc740 \ub274\uc9c8\ub79c\ub4dc\uc758 \ucde8\uc57d\ud55c \uacbd\uae30\uc640 2025\ub144 \ub0b4\ub0b4 \ub2e8\ud589\ub41c \ud070 \ud3ed\uc758 \uae08\ub9ac \uc778\ud558\ub97c \ubc30\uacbd\uc73c\ub85c \ub098\uc654\ub2e4.<\/p>\n

RBNZ\uc758 \ucd5c\uadfc \ubc1c\uc5b8\uc744 \ubcf4\uba74, \ud638\ub974\ubb34\uc988 \ud574\ud611\ubc1c \uc778\ud50c\ub808\uc774\uc158 \ucda9\uaca9(\uacf5\uae09 \ucc28\uc9c8\ub85c \ubb3c\uac00\uac00 \uc624\ub974\ub294 \ud604\uc0c1)\uc740 \uc77c\ub2e8 \uc9c0\ucf1c\ubcf4\uaca0\ub2e4\ub294 \ucabd\uc5d0 \uac00\uae5d\ub2e4. \uc774\ub294 \ub2e8\uae30\uac04 \ub0b4 \uae08\ub9ac \uc778\uc0c1 \uac00\ub2a5\uc131\uc774 \ub0ae\ub2e4\ub294 \uc2e0\ud638\ub85c, \ub2e8\uae30 \ub274\uc9c8\ub79c\ub4dc \uae08\ub9ac \uc2a4\uc640\ud504(\uace0\uc815\uae08\ub9ac\uc640 \ubcc0\ub3d9\uae08\ub9ac\ub97c \uad50\ud658\ud558\ub294 \ud30c\uc0dd\uc0c1\ud488)\uc5d0\uc11c \uace0\uc815\uae08\ub9ac \uc218\ucde8(\uace0\uc815\uae08\ub9ac\ub97c \ubc1b\ub294 \ud3ec\uc9c0\uc158\uc744 \ucde8\ud574 \ud5a5\ud6c4 \uae08\ub9ac \ud558\ub77d \ub610\ub294 \ub3d9\uacb0\uc5d0 \ubca0\ud305\ud558\ub294 \uc804\ub7b5)\uac00 \uc720\ub9ac\ud574\uc9c8 \uc218 \uc788\ub2e4. \ub2f9\uc0ac\ub294 \uae30\uc900\uae08\ub9ac(OCR\u00b7Official Cash Rate, RBNZ\uc758 \uc815\ucc45\uae08\ub9ac)\uac00 \ucd5c\uc18c 2026\ub144 3\ubd84\uae30\uae4c\uc9c0 \ub3d9\uacb0\ub420 \uac00\ub2a5\uc131\uc774 \ud06c\ub2e4\uace0 \ubcf8\ub2e4.<\/p>\n

\uc774\ucc98\ub7fc \uc644\ud654\uc801(\ube44\ub458\uae30\ud30c\u00b7dovish: \uae08\ub9ac \uc778\uc0c1\uc5d0 \uc2e0\uc911\ud558\uace0 \uacbd\uae30 \ubd80\uc591\uc744 \uc911\uc2dc\ud558\ub294) \ud0dc\ub3c4\ub294 2026\ub144 1\ubd84\uae30 GDP \uc131\uc7a5\ub960\uc774 0.2%\uc5d0 \uadf8\uce60 \uc815\ub3c4\ub85c \uacbd\uae30\uac00 \uc57d\ud55c \uc810\uc744 \uace0\ub824\ud558\uba74 \uc790\uc5f0\uc2a4\ub7fd\ub2e4. \uac19\uc740 \ubd84\uae30 \uc18c\ube44\uc790\ubb3c\uac00(\ud5e4\ub4dc\ub77c\uc778 \uc778\ud50c\ub808\uc774\uc158: \uc804\uccb4 \ubb3c\uac00\uc0c1\uc2b9\ub960)\ub294 4.0%\ub85c \ub192\uac8c \uc720\uc9c0\ub410\uc9c0\ub9cc, \uc815\ucc45\ub2f9\uad6d\uc740 \ubb3c\uac00\ubcf4\ub2e4 \uc131\uc7a5 \uc57d\ud654\ub97c \ub354 \uc6b0\ub824\ud558\uace0 \uc788\uc74c\uc744 \ubd84\uba85\ud788 \ud558\uace0 \uc788\ub2e4. \uacbd\uae30 \ucd94\uac00 \ud6fc\uc190\uc744 \ud53c\ud558\uae30 \uc704\ud574 \uc77c\uc2dc\uc801\uc778 \ubb3c\uac00 \uc555\ub825\uc744 \uc77c\uc815 \ubd80\ubd84 \uac10\ub0b4\ud558\uaca0\ub2e4\ub294 \ub73b\uc73c\ub85c \ud574\uc11d\ub41c\ub2e4.<\/p>\n

Trading Implications For Kiwi<\/h3>\n

\ubbf8 \uc5f0\uc900(Fed)\ucc98\ub7fc \ub354 \ub9e4\ud30c\uc801(\ud638\ud0a4\uc2dc\u00b7hawkish: \ubb3c\uac00 \uc5b5\uc81c\ub97c \uc704\ud574 \uae08\ub9ac \uc778\uc0c1 \ub610\ub294 \uace0\uae08\ub9ac \uc720\uc9c0\uc5d0 \uc801\uadf9\uc801\uc778)\uc778 \uc911\uc559\uc740\ud589\uacfc\uc758 \uc815\ucc45 \ucc28\ubcc4\ud654\ub294 \ub274\uc9c8\ub79c\ub4dc \ub2ec\ub7ec(\ud0a4\uc704, NZD)\uc5d0 \ubd80\ub2f4\uc774 \ub420 \uac00\ub2a5\uc131\uc774 \ud06c\ub2e4. NZD\/USD \ud658\uc728\uc740 3\uc6d4 \uc774\ud6c4 \uc774\ubbf8 3% \uc774\uc0c1 \ud558\ub77d\ud588\uc73c\uba70, \ucd94\uac00 \uc57d\uc138 \uc555\ub825\uc774 \uc774\uc5b4\uc9c8 \uc218 \uc788\ub2e4. \ud48b\uc635\uc158 \ub9e4\uc218(\uc815\ud574\uc9c4 \uac00\uaca9\uc5d0 \ud314 \uad8c\ub9ac\ub85c \ud558\ub77d\uc5d0 \ubca0\ud305) \ub610\ub294 \uc57d\uc138 \ud48b \uc2a4\ud504\ub808\ub4dc(\uc11c\ub85c \ub2e4\ub978 \ud589\uc0ac\uac00\uc758 \ud48b\uc635\uc158\uc744 \uc870\ud569\ud574 \ube44\uc6a9\uacfc \uc218\uc775\uc744 \uc870\uc808\ud558\ub294 \uc804\ub7b5) \uac19\uc740 \ubc29\uc2dd\uc740 \ud5a5\ud6c4 \uc218\uc8fc \ub3d9\uc548 \uc218\uc775 \uae30\ud68c\uac00 \ub420 \uc218 \uc788\ub2e4.<\/p>\n

2026\ub144 5\uc6d4 \ud604\uc7ac \uad00\uc810\uc5d0\uc11c \ubcf4\uba74, RBNZ\ub294 \ubd88\uacfc \uc9c0\ub09c\ud574 \uac15\ud55c \uc644\ud654 \uc0ac\uc774\ud074(\uae08\ub9ac\ub97c \ube60\ub974\uac8c \ub0b4\ub9ac\ub294 \ud750\ub984)\uc744 \uc9c4\ud589\ud588\ub2e4. \uc911\uc559\uc740\ud589\uc740 \uacbd\uae30 \ub454\ud654\uc5d0 \ub300\uc751\ud574 2025\ub144 \ub3d9\uc548 \ucd1d 125bp(bp\u00b7\ubca0\uc774\uc2dc\uc2a4\ud3ec\uc778\ud2b8: 0.01%\ud3ec\uc778\ud2b8) \uae08\ub9ac \uc778\ud558\ub97c \ub2e8\ud589\ud588\uae30 \ub54c\ubb38\uc5d0, \uc9c0\uae08 \ube60\ub974\uac8c \ubc29\ud5a5\uc744 \ud2c0\uc5b4 \uae08\ub9ac\ub97c \uc62c\ub9ac\ub294 \uac83\uc740 \ucd5c\uadfc \ud589\ubcf4\uc640 \ub9de\uc9c0 \uc54a\ub294\ub2e4. \uc774\ub7f0 \uc774\ub825\uc740 RBNZ\uc758 \uc2e0\uc911\ud558\uace0 \uc644\ud654\uc801\uc778 \uba54\uc2dc\uc9c0\ub97c \ub4b7\ubc1b\uce68\ud55c\ub2e4.<\/p>\n

\ub2e4\ub9cc \uc911\ub9bd\uae08\ub9ac \uc0c1\uc2b9\uc744 \uc778\uc815\ud55c \uc810\uc740 \uc7a5\uae30\uc801\uc73c\ub85c \uc911\uc694\ud55c \uc2e0\ud638\ub2e4. \uc774\ub294 \uc218\uc775\ub960\uace1\uc120(\ub9cc\uae30\ubcc4 \uae08\ub9ac\uc758 \ubc30\uc5f4)\uc758 \ub2e8\uae30 \uad6c\uac04\uc740 \ub0ae\uc740 \uc218\uc900\uc5d0 \ubb36\uc774\ub354\ub77c\ub3c4, \uc7a5\uae30 \uad6d\ucc44\uae08\ub9ac(\ub9cc\uae30\uac00 \uae34 \ucc44\uad8c\uc758 \uae08\ub9ac)\ub294 \uc624\ub974\uba74\uc11c \uace1\uc120\uc774 \ub354 \uac00\ud314\ub77c\uc9c8(\uc2a4\ud2f0\ud504\ub2dd: \uc7a5\uae30\uae08\ub9ac\uac00 \ub2e8\uae30\uae08\ub9ac\ubcf4\ub2e4 \ub354 \uc624\ub974\ub294 \ud604\uc0c1) \uc218 \uc788\uc74c\uc744 \uc2dc\uc0ac\ud55c\ub2e4. \ub530\ub77c\uc11c 5\ub144\u00b710\ub144 \uad6c\uac04\uc5d0\uc11c \ub2e8\uc21c\ud788 \uc644\ud654 \ucabd\uc5d0\ub9cc \ubca0\ud305\ud558\ub294 \uc804\ub7b5\uc740 \uc8fc\uc758\uac00 \ud544\uc694\ud558\ub2e4.<\/p>\n

\uc644\ud654\uc801\uc778 \uc911\uc559\uc740\ud589 \uae30\uc870\uc640 \ub300\uc678 \ubb3c\uac00 \uc555\ub825 \uc0ac\uc774\uc758 \uae34\uc7a5\uc740 \uc2dc\uc7a5 \ubcc0\ub3d9\uc131\uc744 \ud0a4\uc6b8 \uc218 \uc788\ub2e4. NZD 3\uac1c\uc6d4 \ub0b4\uc7ac\ubcc0\ub3d9\uc131(\uc635\uc158 \uac00\uaca9\uc5d0 \ubc18\uc601\ub41c \ud5a5\ud6c4 \ubcc0\ub3d9\uc131 \uae30\ub300\uce58)\uc740 \uc774\ubbf8 9.5%\ub85c \uc62c\ub77c \ubd88\ud655\uc2e4\uc131\uc744 \ubc18\uc601\ud558\uace0 \uc788\ub2e4. \ub2e4\uc74c RBNZ \ud68c\uc758\ub97c \uc55e\ub450\uace0 \ud0a4\uc704\ub2ec\ub7ec \uc2a4\ud2b8\ub798\ub4e4(\uac19\uc740 \ud589\uc0ac\uac00\uc758 \ucf5c\u00b7\ud48b\uc744 \ud568\uaed8 \uc0ac\uc11c \ud070 \ubcc0\ub3d9\uc5d0 \ubca0\ud305\ud558\ub294 \uc635\uc158 \uc804\ub7b5) \ub4f1\uc73c\ub85c \ubcc0\ub3d9\uc131 \ub9e4\uc218\uc5d0 \ub098\uc11c\ub294 \uac83\uc740 \uc774\ub7f0 \ud658\uacbd\uc5d0\uc11c \uace0\ub824\ud560 \ub9cc\ud55c \ub300\uc751\uc774\ub2e4.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

\u201c\ud638\ub974\ubb34\uc988=\uae08\ub9ac\uc778\uc0c1\u201d \uacf5\uc2dd \uae68\uc84c\ub2e4. RBNZ \uac00\uc774, \uacf5\uae09\ucda9\uaca9\uc740 \ub8e9\uc2a4\ub8e8\u2026\uc120\uc81c \uae34\ucd95 \uc870\uac74 \ubbf8\ucda9\uc871. OCR 2026\ub144 3Q \ub3d9\uacb0 \uc2dc\uc0ac, NZD \uc57d\uc138\u00b7\uc2a4\uc651 \uc218\ucde8 \uc720\ub9ac. \uc911\ub9bd\uae08\ub9ac\u2191\ub85c \uc7a5\uae30\uae08\ub9ac \uc2a4\ud2f0\ud504\ub2dd \uacbd\uacc4.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-46122","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/46122","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=46122"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/46122\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=46122"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=46122"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=46122"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}