{"id":45926,"date":"2026-04-30T22:56:11","date_gmt":"2026-04-30T22:56:11","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr\/uncategorized\/%eb%af%b8%ea%b5%ad-4%ec%a3%bc%eb%ac%bc-%ea%b5%ad%ec%b1%84-%ec%9e%85%ec%b0%b0-%ec%88%98%ec%9d%b5%eb%a5%a0-3-6%eb%a1%9c-%ec%86%8c%ed%8f%ad-%ec%83%81%ec%8a%b9%ec%a7%81%ec%a0%84-3-595-%ec%83%81\/"},"modified":"2026-04-30T22:56:11","modified_gmt":"2026-04-30T22:56:11","slug":"%eb%af%b8%ea%b5%ad-4%ec%a3%bc%eb%ac%bc-%ea%b5%ad%ec%b1%84-%ec%9e%85%ec%b0%b0-%ec%88%98%ec%9d%b5%eb%a5%a0-3-6%eb%a1%9c-%ec%86%8c%ed%8f%ad-%ec%83%81%ec%8a%b9%ec%a7%81%ec%a0%84-3-595-%ec%83%81","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/live-updates\/%eb%af%b8%ea%b5%ad-4%ec%a3%bc%eb%ac%bc-%ea%b5%ad%ec%b1%84-%ec%9e%85%ec%b0%b0-%ec%88%98%ec%9d%b5%eb%a5%a0-3-6%eb%a1%9c-%ec%86%8c%ed%8f%ad-%ec%83%81%ec%8a%b9%ec%a7%81%ec%a0%84-3-595-%ec%83%81\/","title":{"rendered":"\ubbf8\uad6d 4\uc8fc\ubb3c \uad6d\ucc44 \uc785\ucc30 \uc218\uc775\ub960 3.6%\ub85c \uc18c\ud3ed \uc0c1\uc2b9\u2026\uc9c1\uc804 3.595% \uc0c1\ud68c"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>\ubbf8\uad6d 4\uc8fc\ubb3c(\ub9cc\uae30 4\uc8fc) \uc7ac\ubb34\ubd80 \ub2e8\uae30\uad6d\ucc44(T-bill) \uc785\ucc30 \uc218\uc775\ub960\uc774 3.6%\ub85c \uc0c1\uc2b9\ud588\ub2e4. \uc9c1\uc804 \uc785\ucc30 \uc218\uc775\ub960\uc740 3.595%\uc600\ub2e4.<\/p>\n<p>\uc2dc\uc7a5\uc740 \ub2e8\uae30 \uc5f0\ubc29\uc900\ube44\uc81c\ub3c4(Fed\u00b7\ubbf8 \uc911\uc559\uc740\ud589) \ud1b5\ud654\uc815\ucc45 \uc804\ub9dd\uc744 \ub2e4\uc2dc \uc870\uc815\ud558\ub294 \ubaa8\uc2b5\uc774\ub2e4. 4\uc8fc\ubb3c \uc785\ucc30 \uae08\ub9ac\uac00 3.6%\ub85c \uc18c\ud3ed \uc62c\ub77c, 2025\ub144 \ub0b4\ub0b4 \uc2dc\uc7a5\uc744 \uc9c0\ubc30\ud588\ub358 \u2018\uae08\ub9ac \uc778\ud558\uac00 \uacc4\uc18d\ub420 \uac83\u2019\uc774\ub77c\ub294 \uc804\uc81c\uac00 \ud754\ub4e4\ub9ac\uace0 \uc788\uc74c\uc744 \uc2dc\uc0ac\ud55c\ub2e4. \ud2b8\ub808\uc774\ub354 \uc785\uc7a5\uc5d0\uc11c\ub294 \uc5f0\uc900\uc758 \uc644\ud654(\uae08\ub9ac \uc778\ud558) \uc0ac\uc774\ud074\uc774 \uc7a0\uc2dc \uba48\ucd9c \uc218 \uc788\ub2e4\ub294 \uc2e0\ud638\ub85c, \uadf8\uc5d0 \ub9de\ucdb0 \ud3ec\uc9c0\uc158(\ud22c\uc790 \ubc29\ud5a5\uacfc \uaddc\ubaa8)\uc744 \uc870\uc815\ud560 \ud544\uc694\uac00 \uc788\ub2e4.<\/p>\n<h3>Fed Expectations Shift<\/h3>\n<p>\uc774\ubc88 \ubcc0\ud654\ub294 2026\ub144 3\uc6d4 \ucd5c\uc2e0 \ubb3c\uac00\ubcf4\uace0\uc11c\uc5d0\uc11c \uc18c\ube44\uc790\ubb3c\uac00\uac00 \uc608\uc0c1\ubcf4\ub2e4 \ub354 \uacac\uc870\ud558\uac8c \ub098\ud0c0\ub09c \uc601\ud5a5\uacfc \ub9de\ubb3c\ub9b0\ub2e4. \ubcc0\ub3d9\uc131\uc774 \ud070 \ud56d\ubaa9\uc744 \uc81c\uc678\ud574 \uae30\uc870 \ubb3c\uac00\ub97c \ubcf4\uc5ec\uc8fc\ub294 \u2018\uadfc\uc6d0 \ubb3c\uac00(core inflation)\u2019\ub294 3.1%\uc600\ub2e4. \uace0\uc6a9\uc2dc\uc7a5\ub3c4 \ud0c4\ud0c4\ud558\ub2e4. 4\uc6d4 \ucd08 \ubc1c\ud45c\ub41c \ucd5c\uc2e0 \uace0\uc6a9\uc9c0\ud45c\uc5d0\uc11c\ub294 \uc2e0\uaddc \uc77c\uc790\ub9ac 21\ub9cc5,000\uac1c\uac00 \ub298\uc5c8\ub2e4. \uc774 \uc870\ud569\uc740 \uc5f0\uc900\uc774 \uc5ec\ub984\uae4c\uc9c0 \uae30\uc900\uae08\ub9ac\ub97c \ub3d9\uacb0(\ud604 \uc218\uc900 \uc720\uc9c0)\ud574\ub3c4 \ub41c\ub2e4\ub294 \uadfc\uac70\ub97c \uc81c\uacf5\ud558\uba70, \uc2dc\uc7a5\uc774 \uadf8\ub3d9\uc548 \uac00\uaca9\uc5d0 \ubc18\uc601\ud574 \uc654\ub358 \uae30\ub300\uc640\ub294 \ub2e4\ub974\ub2e4.<\/p>\n<p>\uc774\ub7f0 \uc804\ub9dd\uc744 \uac10\uc548\ud558\uba74 2026\ub144 \ud558\ubc18\uae30 \uad6c\uac04\uc5d0\uc11c \ub2e8\uae30\uae08\ub9ac \uc120\ubb3c \ub9e4\ub3c4 \uc804\ub7b5\uc744 \uac80\ud1a0\ud560 \uc218 \uc788\ub2e4. \uc608\ub97c \ub4e4\uc5b4 SOFR(\ub2f4\ubcf4\ubd80 \uc775\uc77c\uae08\ub9ac\ub85c, \ubbf8\uad6d \ub2ec\ub7ec \ub2e8\uae30\uae08\ub9ac\uc758 \ub300\ud45c \uc9c0\ud45c)\uc5d0 \uc5f0\ub3d9\ub41c \uc120\ubb3c\uc774\ub2e4. \uc774\ub294 \uc62c\ud574 \ucd94\uac00 \uae08\ub9ac \uc778\ud558 \uac00\ub2a5\uc131\uc774 \uc2dc\uc7a5\uc5d0\uc11c \ub354 \ub0ae\uc544\uc9c0\ub294(\uc778\ud558 \uae30\ub300\uac00 \uac00\uaca9\uc5d0\uc11c \ube60\uc9c0\ub294) \ud750\ub984\uc5d0 \ubca0\ud305\ud558\ub294 \ubc29\uc2dd\uc774\ub2e4. \uacfc\uac70\uc5d0\ub3c4 \uc5f0\uc900\uc774 \uc5f0\uc18d \uc778\ud558 \ub4a4 \u2018\uc77c\uc2dc \uc911\ub2e8(pause\u00b7\ub3d9\uacb0)\u2019\uc5d0 \ub4e4\uc5b4\uac00\uba74, \uc218\uc775\ub960\uace1\uc120(\ub9cc\uae30\ubcc4 \uae08\ub9ac) \uc55e\ub2e8(\ub2e8\uae30 \uad6c\uac04) \uae08\ub9ac\uac00 \uc218\uac1c\uc6d4 \ub3d9\uc548 \uc7ac\ucc28 \uc62c\ub77c\uac00\ub294 \uc0ac\ub840\uac00 \uc7a6\uc558\ub2e4.<\/p>\n<p>\uc5f0\uc900 \uacbd\ub85c\uc5d0 \ub300\ud55c \ubd88\ud655\uc2e4\uc131\uc774 \ucee4\uc9c0\uba74, \uc62c\ud574 \ucd08\uc758 \ube44\uad50\uc801 \u09b6\u09be\u09a8\u09cd\u09a4\ud55c \uc218\uc900\uc5d0\uc11c \u2018\ub0b4\uc7ac \ubcc0\ub3d9\uc131(implied volatility\u00b7\uc635\uc158 \uac00\uaca9\uc5d0 \ubc18\uc601\ub41c \ud5a5\ud6c4 \ubcc0\ub3d9\uc131 \uae30\ub300)\u2019\uc774 \uc0c1\uc2b9\ud560 \uac00\ub2a5\uc131\ub3c4 \uc788\ub2e4. \uc774\uc5d0 \ub530\ub77c \uae08\ub9ac \ubbfc\uac10 \uc790\uc0b0\uc5d0\uc11c \uac00\uaca9 \ubcc0\ub3d9\ud3ed \ud655\ub300\uc5d0 \uc720\ub9ac\ud55c \uc635\uc158 \ub9e4\uc218 \uc804\ub7b5\uc774 \ub300\uc548\uc774 \ub420 \uc218 \uc788\ub2e4. \uc608\ub97c \ub4e4\uc5b4 iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF(TLT\u00b7\ubbf8\uad6d 20\ub144 \uc774\uc0c1 \uc7a5\uae30\uad6d\ucc44\uc5d0 \ud22c\uc790\ud558\ub294 ETF)\uc5d0 \ub300\ud574 \uc2a4\ud2b8\ub798\ub4e4(straddle\u00b7\uac19\uc740 \ud589\uc0ac\uac00\uc758 \ucf5c\uc635\uc158\uacfc \ud48b\uc635\uc158\uc744 \ub3d9\uc2dc\uc5d0 \ub9e4\uc218\ud574, \ubc29\ud5a5\uacfc \ubb34\uad00\ud558\uac8c \ud070 \ubcc0\ub3d9\uc5d0\uc11c \uc774\uc775\uc744 \ub178\ub9ac\ub294 \uc804\ub7b5)\uc744 \ub9e4\uc218\ud558\uba74 \uc7a5\uae30\uae08\ub9ac \ubc29\ud5a5\uc744 \ub2e8\uc815\ud558\uc9c0 \uc54a\uace0\ub3c4 \ubd88\ud655\uc2e4\uc131\uc744 \uac70\ub798\ud560 \uc218 \uc788\ub2e4.<\/p>\n<p>\uc774 \ud658\uacbd\uc740 \uc9c0\ub09c\ud574 \uae08\ub9ac \ud558\ub77d\uc758 \uc218\ud61c\ub97c \ubcf8 \uc131\uc7a5\uc8fc(\ubbf8\ub798 \uc774\uc775 \uae30\ub300\uac00 \ucee4 \uae08\ub9ac\uc5d0 \ubbfc\uac10\ud55c \uc8fc\uc2dd)\uc5d0\ub294 \ubd80\ub2f4(\uc5ed\ud48d)\uc73c\ub85c \uc791\uc6a9\ud560 \uc218 \uc788\ub2e4. \uc8fc\uc2dd \ub871(\ub9e4\uc218) \uc775\uc2a4\ud3ec\uc800(\ubcf4\uc720 \uaddc\ubaa8)\ub294 \ud5e4\uc9c0(\uc704\ud5d8 \uc904\uc774\uae30)\ub97c \uace0\ub824\ud560 \ub9cc\ud558\ub2e4. \uc8fc\uc694 \uc9c0\uc218 \ud48b\uc635\uc158(\ud558\ub77d \uc2dc \uc774\uc775\uc774 \ub098\ub294 \uc635\uc158)\uc744 \uc0ac\uac70\ub098, \ud2b9\uc815 \uae30\uc220\uc8fc \uc139\ud130\uc5d0\uc11c \ucf5c \uc2a4\ud504\ub808\ub4dc(\ucf5c\uc635\uc158\uc744 \uc0ac\uace0 \ub2e4\ub978 \ucf5c\uc635\uc158\uc744 \ud30c\ub294 \uc870\ud569\uc73c\ub85c \ube44\uc6a9\uacfc \uc218\uc775\uc744 \uc81c\ud55c\ud558\ub294 \uc804\ub7b5)\ub97c \ub9e4\ub3c4\ud558\ub294 \ubc29\uc2dd\uc774 \uc788\ub2e4. \uc774\ub294 \ub2f9\ubd84\uac04 \uc790\uae08\uc870\ub2ec \ube44\uc6a9\uc774 \ud06c\uac8c \ub0b4\ub824\uac00\uc9c0 \uc54a\ub294 \ud604\uc2e4\uc744 \uc2dc\uc7a5\uc774 \ubc18\uc601\ud560 \ub54c \ubcc0\ub3d9\uc131\uc5d0 \ub300\ube44\ud558\ub294 \uc644\ucda9\uc7a5\uce58\uac00 \ub41c\ub2e4.<\/p>\n<h3>Positioning For Higher Volatility<\/h3>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>\ubbf8 4\uc8fc\ubb3c T-bill \uc785\ucc30 \uc218\uc775\ub960 3.6%\ub85c \uc18c\ud3ed \uc0c1\uc2b9\ud558\uba70 \uc5f0\uc900 \uc778\ud558 \uc0ac\uc774\ud074 \u2018\uc77c\uc2dc\uc815\uc9c0\u2019 \uac00\ub2a5\uc131 \ubd80\uac01. \uacac\uc870\ud55c \ubb3c\uac00\u00b7\uace0\uc6a9\uc5d0 \uae08\ub9ac\ub3d9\uacb0 \uc804\ub9dd, \uc120\ubb3c \ub9e4\ub3c4\u00b7\uc635\uc158 \uc804\ub7b5 \uc7ac\ubd80\uc0c1. \uc131\uc7a5\uc8fc\uc5d4 \uc5ed\ud48d.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-45926","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/45926","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=45926"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/45926\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=45926"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=45926"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=45926"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}