{"id":45922,"date":"2026-04-30T21:53:03","date_gmt":"2026-04-30T21:53:03","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr\/uncategorized\/abn-%ec%95%94%eb%a1%9c-%ec%9d%b4%ec%bd%94%eb%85%b8%eb%af%b8%ec%8a%a4%ed%8a%b8-%eb%a1%9c%ed%9e%88%ec%96%b4-%ec%bd%b0%eb%93%9c%eb%b8%94%eb%a6%ac%ed%9d%90-%ec%97%b0%ec%a4%80-%ea%b8%88%eb%a6%ac\/"},"modified":"2026-04-30T21:53:03","modified_gmt":"2026-04-30T21:53:03","slug":"abn-%ec%95%94%eb%a1%9c-%ec%9d%b4%ec%bd%94%eb%85%b8%eb%af%b8%ec%8a%a4%ed%8a%b8-%eb%a1%9c%ed%9e%88%ec%96%b4-%ec%bd%b0%eb%93%9c%eb%b8%94%eb%a6%ac%ed%9d%90-%ec%97%b0%ec%a4%80-%ea%b8%88%eb%a6%ac","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/live-updates\/abn-%ec%95%94%eb%a1%9c-%ec%9d%b4%ec%bd%94%eb%85%b8%eb%af%b8%ec%8a%a4%ed%8a%b8-%eb%a1%9c%ed%9e%88%ec%96%b4-%ec%bd%b0%eb%93%9c%eb%b8%94%eb%a6%ac%ed%9d%90-%ec%97%b0%ec%a4%80-%ea%b8%88%eb%a6%ac\/","title":{"rendered":"ABN \uc554\ub85c \uc774\ucf54\ub178\ubbf8\uc2a4\ud2b8 \ub85c\ud788\uc5b4 \ucf70\ub4dc\ube14\ub9ac\ud750 \u201c\uc5f0\uc900, \uae08\ub9ac \ub3d9\uacb0\u2026\uc644\ud654\uc801(\ub3c4\ube44\uc2dc) \uc778\ud558 \uae30\uc870 \uc720\uc9c0\u201d"},"content":{"rendered":"

\uc5f0\ubc29\uacf5\uac1c\uc2dc\uc7a5\uc704\uc6d0\ud68c(FOMC)\ub294 \uae30\uc900\uae08\ub9ac\ub97c \ub3d9\uacb0\ud588\uace0, \uc131\uba85\uc11c\uc5d0\uc11c \uae30\uc874\uc758 \u2018\uc644\ud654(\uae08\ub9ac \uc778\ud558) \ucabd\uc73c\ub85c \uae30\uc6b8\uc5b4 \uc788\ub294 \uc785\uc7a5(\uc644\ud654 \ud3b8\ud5a5)\u2019\ub3c4 \uc720\uc9c0\ud588\ub2e4. \ubc18\ub300\ud45c\ub294 4\uba85\uc73c\ub85c, 1990\ub144\ub300 \ucd08\ubc18 \uc774\ud6c4 \uac00\uc7a5 \ub9ce\uc558\ub2e4.<\/p>\n

\uc131\uba85\uc11c \ubb38\uad6c\ub294 \ubc14\ub00c\uc9c0 \uc54a\uc558\uace0, \uc77c\ubd80 \uc704\uc6d0\uc740 \ud5a5\ud6c4 \uae08\ub9ac \uacb0\uc815\uc5d0 \ub300\ud574 \u2018\uc778\uc0c1\u00b7\uc778\ud558 \uc591\ucabd \uac00\ub2a5\uc131\u2019\uc744 \ub354 \ubd84\uba85\ud788 \ub4dc\ub7ec\ub0b4\ub294 \uc9c0\uce68(\uc591\ubc29\ud5a5 \uac00\uc774\ub358\uc2a4)\uc744 \uc6d0\ud588\ub2e4. \uadf8\ub7ec\ub098 \ub2e4\uc218\ub294 \uae30\uc874 \ubb38\uad6c\ub97c \uc720\uc9c0\ud574 \uc644\ud654 \ud3b8\ud5a5\uc774 \ub0a8\uc558\ub2e4.<\/p>\n

Fed Rate Path Outlook<\/h3>\n

ABN\uc554\ub85c\ub294 \uc5f0\uc900\uc774 \uc62c\ud574 \ub9d0\uae4c\uc9c0 \uc5f0\ubc29\uae30\uae08\uae08\ub9ac(\ubbf8\uad6d \uc740\ud589\ub4e4\uc774 \ud558\ub8e8\uc9dc\ub9ac\ub85c \uc11c\ub85c \ube4c\ub824\uc8fc\ub294 \ucd08\ub2e8\uae30 \uae08\ub9ac\ub85c, \ubbf8 \uc5f0\uc900\uc758 \uc815\ucc45\uae08\ub9ac \ubaa9\ud45c)\ub97c \ub3d9\uacb0\ud560 \uac83\uc73c\ub85c \uc608\uc0c1\ud588\ub2e4. \uc774\ud6c4 12\uc6d4\uc5d0 25bp(\ubca0\uc774\uc2dc\uc2a4\ud3ec\uc778\ud2b8, 0.01%\ud3ec\uc778\ud2b8) \uc778\ud558\ub97c \uc2dc\uc791\uc73c\ub85c \uc644\ub9cc\ud55c \uc644\ud654\ub97c \uc804\ub9dd\ud588\ub2e4.<\/p>\n

ABN\uc554\ub85c\ub294 \uadf8 \ub2e4\uc74c\ubd80\ud130\ub294 \ubd84\uae30\ub9c8\ub2e4 25bp\uc529 \ucd94\uac00 \uc778\ud558\ub97c \uc608\uc0c1\ud588\ub2e4. \uc815\ucc45\uae08\ub9ac\ub294 6\uc6d4\uc5d0 2.75~3.00% \ubc94\uc704\uc5d0 \ub3c4\ub2ec\ud560 \uac83\uc73c\ub85c \ubd24\ub294\ub370, \uc774\ub294 \u2018\uc911\ub9bd\uae08\ub9ac\u2019(\uacbd\uae30\ub97c \uacfc\uc5f4\uc2dc\ud0a4\uc9c0\ub3c4, \uc704\ucd95\uc2dc\ud0a4\uc9c0\ub3c4 \uc54a\ub294 \uc218\uc900\uc758 \uae08\ub9ac) \ud558\ub2e8\uc73c\ub85c \uc124\uba85\ud588\ub2e4.<\/p>\n

\uc81c\ub86c \ud30c\uc6d4 \uc5f0\uc900 \uc758\uc7a5\uc740 6\uc6d4 \ud68c\uc758 \ub54c\ub294 \uc5ec\uac74\uc774 \ud06c\uac8c \ub2ec\ub77c\uc9c8 \uc218 \uc788\ub2e4\uace0 \ub9d0\ud588\ub2e4.<\/p>\n

\uc5f0\uc900\uc774 \uae08\ub9ac\ub97c \ub3d9\uacb0\ud55c \uac83\uc740, 1990\ub144\ub300 \ucd08\ubc18 \uc774\ud6c4 \ubcf4\uae30 \ud798\ub4e0 \uc218\uc900\uc758 \ubc18\ub300\ud45c\uc5d0\ub3c4 \ubd88\uad6c\ud558\uace0 \ud5a5\ud6c4 \uba87 \uc8fc\uac04 \u2018\uad00\ub9dd \uc18d \uc815\ub9ac \uad6d\uba74\u2019\uc774 \uc774\uc5b4\uc9c8 \uac00\ub2a5\uc131\uc744 \uc2dc\uc0ac\ud55c\ub2e4. \uc774\ub294 \uae08\ub9ac\uac00 \uc77c\uc815 \ubc94\uc704\uc5d0\uc11c \uc6c0\uc9c1\uc77c \ub54c \uc218\uc775\uc744 \ub178\ub9ac\ub294 \uc804\ub7b5\uc5d0 \uc720\ub9ac\ud558\ub2e4\uace0 \ubcf8\ub2e4. \uc608\ub97c \ub4e4\uc5b4 SOFR \uc120\ubb3c(\ub2f4\ubcf4\ubd80 \uc775\uc77c\uae08\ub9ac\uc778 SOFR\ub97c \uae30\uc900\uc73c\ub85c \ud55c \uae08\ub9ac \uc120\ubb3c)\uc5d0 \ub300\ud574 \ub2e8\uae30 \uc2a4\ud2b8\ub7ad\uae00 \ub9e4\ub3c4(\ucf5c\uc635\uc158\uacfc \ud48b\uc635\uc158\uc744 \ub3d9\uc2dc\uc5d0 \ub9e4\ub3c4\ud574 \ud504\ub9ac\ubbf8\uc5c4\uc744 \ubc1b\ub294 \uc804\ub7b5)\ub97c \ud65c\uc6a9\ud558\uba74, \uc704\uc6d0\ud68c\uac00 6\uc6d4\uc758 \ud575\uc2ec \ud68c\uc758\ub97c \uc55e\ub450\uace0 \u2018\uc9c0\ucf1c\ubcf4\uc790\u2019 \ubaa8\ub4dc\uc5d0 \uc788\ub294 \ub3d9\uc548 \uc635\uc158 \ud504\ub9ac\ubbf8\uc5c4(\uc635\uc158 \uac70\ub798\uc758 \ub300\uac00\ub85c \ubc1b\ub294 \ub3c8)\uc744 \ud655\ubcf4\ud560 \uc218 \uc788\ub2e4.<\/p>\n

Positioning For June Volatility<\/h3>\n

\uc774 \uac19\uc740 \uc2e0\uc911\ud55c \ud0dc\ub3c4\ub294 \ucd5c\uadfc \uacbd\uc81c\uc9c0\ud45c\ub85c\ub3c4 \ub4b7\ubc1b\uce68\ub41c\ub2e4. 2026\ub144 3\uc6d4 CPI(\uc18c\ube44\uc790\ubb3c\uac00\uc9c0\uc218)\uc5d0\uc11c \uadfc\uc6d0 \uc778\ud50c\ub808\uc774\uc158(\ubcc0\ub3d9\uc774 \ud070 \uc2dd\ub8cc\ud488\u00b7\uc5d0\ub108\uc9c0 \uac00\uaca9\uc744 \ube80 \ubb3c\uac00)\uc774 3.1%\ub85c \u2018\ub048\uc801\ud558\uac8c\u2019 \ub192\uc740 \uc218\uc900\uc744 \uc774\uc5b4\uac00\uba70(\uc27d\uac8c \ub0b4\ub824\uc624\uc9c0 \uc54a\uc73c\uba70) \uae08\ub9ac \uc778\ud558\ub97c \uc11c\ub450\ub974\uae30 \uc5b4\ub835\ub2e4\ub294 \uc2e0\ud638\ub97c \uc900\ub2e4. \ud55c\ud3b8 \ucd5c\uadfc \uace0\uc6a9\ubcf4\uace0\uc11c\ub294 \uace0\uc6a9\uc2dc\uc7a5\uc774 \ub454\ud654 \uc870\uc9d0\uc744 \ubcf4\uc774\uc9c0\ub9cc \uc5ec\uc804\ud788 \ubc84\ud2f0\ub294 \ubaa8\uc2b5(\uacac\uc870\ud568)\uc744 \ubcf4\uc5ec, \uc5f0\uc900\uc774 \uae08\ub9ac\ub97c \ub3d9\uacb0\ud560 \uba85\ubd84\uc744 \uc81c\uacf5\ud55c\ub2e4. \uc774\ub7f0 \uc5c7\uac08\ub9b0 \uc2e0\ud638\ub294 \ub2e8\uae30\uc801\uc73c\ub85c \uae08\ub9ac\uac00 \uadf8\ub300\ub85c\uc77c \uac00\ub2a5\uc131\uc744 \ub192\uc778\ub2e4.<\/p>\n

\uc2dc\uc7a5\uc740 \uc774\uc81c 6\uc6d4 \ud68c\uc758\uc5d0 \uc9d1\uc911\ud558\uace0 \uc788\ub2e4. 6\uc6d4\uc740 \uc804\ub9dd\uc774 \ud06c\uac8c \ubc14\ub014 \uc218 \uc788\ub294 \uc2dc\uc810\uc73c\ub85c \uba85\ud655\ud788 \uc9c0\ubaa9\ub410\ub2e4. \uc774\ub294 \ud070 \u2018\uc774\ubca4\ud2b8 \uc704\ud5d8\u2019(\ud2b9\uc815 \uc774\ubca4\ud2b8\ub85c \uc2dc\uc7a5\uc774 \ud06c\uac8c \ud754\ub4e4\ub9b4 \uc704\ud5d8)\uc774\ubbc0\ub85c, 7\uc6d4 \ub9cc\uae30 \uc635\uc158\uc744 \ud65c\uc6a9\ud574 \ub354 \uae34 \uae30\uac04\uc758 \ubcc0\ub3d9\uc131(\uac00\uaca9 \ubcc0\ub3d9\ud3ed)\uc744 \ub9e4\uc218\ud558\ub294 \ubc29\uc548\uc744 \uace0\ub824\ud560 \ub9cc\ud558\ub2e4. \ud604\uc7ac 6\uc6d4 \uc774\ud6c4 \uad6c\uac04\uc744 \ubc18\uc601\ud55c \uacc4\uc57d\uc758 \ub0b4\uc7ac\ubcc0\ub3d9\uc131(\uc635\uc158 \uac00\uaca9\uc5d0 \ubc18\uc601\ub41c \uc2dc\uc7a5\uc758 \uc608\uc0c1 \ubcc0\ub3d9\uc131)\uc740 \uc815\ucc45 \uba54\uc2dc\uc9c0\uac00 \ub69c\ub837\ud558\uac8c \ubc14\ub014 \uac00\ub2a5\uc131\uc744 \uacfc\uc18c\ud3c9\uac00\ud558\ub294 \ub4ef\ud558\ub2e4.<\/p>\n

\uc774\ub7f0 \u2018\uad00\ub9dd \uad6d\uba74\u2019\uc740 2025\ub144 \uc911\ubc18 \uc2dc\uc7a5\uc774 \uae08\ub9ac \uc778\ud558\ub97c \uc798\ubabb \uc608\uc0c1\ud588\ub2e4\uac00 \uc774\ud6c4 \ud3ec\uc9c0\uc158\uc774 \ud55c\uaebc\ubc88\uc5d0 \ub418\ub3cc\ub824\uc9c0\uba70(\uae09\uaca9\ud55c \ud3ec\uc9c0\uc158 \uccad\uc0b0, \uc5b8\uc640\uc778\ub4dc) \ud070 \ubcc0\ub3d9\uc774 \ub098\ud0c0\ub0ac\ub358 \uc0c1\ud669\uc744 \ub5a0\uc62c\ub9ac\uac8c \ud55c\ub2e4. \ub2f9\uc2dc \uacbd\ud5d8\uacfc \ud604\uc7ac FOMC \ub0b4\ubd80\uc758 \ubd84\uc5f4\uc744 \uac10\uc548\ud558\uba74, \uc2dc\uc7a5 \uc608\uc0c1\ubcf4\ub2e4 \uae08\ub9ac\uac00 \ub354 \uc624\ub798 \ub192\uc740 \uc218\uc900\uc744 \uc720\uc9c0\ud560 \uac83\uc5d0 \ubca0\ud305\ud558\ub294 \uc218\uc775\ub960\uace1\uc120(\ub9cc\uae30\ubcc4 \uae08\ub9ac \ubd84\ud3ec) \uac70\ub798\uc5d0\uc11c \uae30\ud68c\uac00 \uc788\ub2e4\uace0 \ubcf8\ub2e4. \ubbf8 \uad6d\ucc44 \ub178\ud2b8 \uc120\ubb3c\uc744 \ud65c\uc6a9\ud55c \uc218\uc775\ub960\uace1\uc120 \ud50c\ub798\ud2b8\ub108(\uc7a5\ub2e8\uae30 \uae08\ub9ac\ucc28\uac00 \uc904\uc5b4\ub4dc\ub294 \ubc29\ud5a5\uc5d0 \ud22c\uc790\ud558\ub294 \uc804\ub7b5)\ub294, \ud5a5\ud6c4 \uc9c0\ud45c\uac00 \uc5f0\uc900\uc73c\ub85c \ud558\uc5ec\uae08 \uc5ec\ub984\uae4c\uc9c0 \uae34\ucd95\uc801 \ud0dc\ub3c4(\uae08\ub9ac\ub97c \ub192\uac8c \uc720\uc9c0\ud574 \uc218\uc694\ub97c \uc5b5\uc81c\ud558\ub294 \uc815\ucc45)\ub97c \uc720\uc9c0\ud558\uac8c \ub9cc\ub4e4 \uacbd\uc6b0 \uc131\uacfc\uac00 \uc88b\uc744 \uc218 \uc788\ub2e4.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

FOMC \uae08\ub9ac \ub3d9\uacb0\uc5d0\ub3c4 \uc644\ud654 \ud3b8\ud5a5 \uc720\uc9c0, \ubc18\ub300\ud45c 4\uba85 \u2018\uc774\ub840\uc801 \uade0\uc5f4\u2019. \uc5f0\uc900 \uad00\ub9dd \uc18d 6\uc6d4 \uc774\ubca4\ud2b8 \ub9ac\uc2a4\ud06c \ubd80\uac01. \uc5f0\ub9d0 \uc778\ud558 \uc804\ub9dd \uc18d \ub2e8\uae30 \ubcc0\ub3d9\uc131 \ub9e4\ub3c4\u00b77\uc6d4 \uc635\uc158 \ub9e4\uc218, \ucee4\ube0c \ud50c\ub798\ud2b8\ub108 \uae30\ud68c.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-45922","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/45922","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=45922"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/45922\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=45922"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=45922"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=45922"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}