\ubbf8\uad6d \uc5f0\ubc29\uc900\ube44\uc81c\ub3c4(Fed\u00b7\uc5f0\uc900)\uac00 \uae30\uc900\uae08\ub9ac\ub97c \ub3d9\uacb0\ud558\uace0, \uc81c\ub86c \ud30c\uc6d4 \uc758\uc7a5\uc774 \u201c\ud615\uc0ac \uc218\uc0ac\uac00 \uc885\uacb0\ub420 \ub54c\uae4c\uc9c0 \uc774\uc0ac\ud68c(Board\u00b7\uc5f0\uc900 \uc774\uc0ac\ud68c)\uc5d0\uc11c \ubb3c\ub7ec\ub098\uc9c0 \uc54a\uaca0\ub2e4\u201d\uace0 \ub9d0\ud55c \ub4a4 \uae08\uac12\uc774 1% \ub118\uac8c \ud558\ub77d\ud588\ub2e4. \uae08 \ud604\ubb3c(XAU\/USD)\uc740 \uc7a5\uc911 \uace0\uc810 4,610\ub2ec\ub7ec\ub97c \ucc0d\uc740 \ub4a4 4,546\ub2ec\ub7ec\uc5d0 \uac70\ub798\ub410\ub2e4.<\/p>\n
\uc5f0\ubc29\uacf5\uac1c\uc2dc\uc7a5\uc704\uc6d0\ud68c(FOMC\u00b7\uc5f0\uc900\uc758 \uae08\ub9ac \uacb0\uc815 \ud68c\uc758)\ub294 \uae08\ub9ac\ub97c 3.50%~3.75%\ub85c \uc720\uc9c0\ud588\uc73c\uba70 \ud45c\uacb0\uc740 8\ub300 4\ub85c \uac08\ub838\ub2e4. 1992\ub144 \uc774\ud6c4 \uac00\uc7a5 \ud070 \uc758\uacac \ubd84\uc5f4\uc774\ub2e4. \uc2a4\ud2f0\ube10 \ubbf8\ub780\uc740 \uae08\ub9ac \uc778\ud558\ub97c \uc9c0\uc9c0\ud588\uc9c0\ub9cc, \ubca0\uc2a4 \ud574\ub9e5\u00b7\ub2d0 \uce74\uc2dc\uce74\ub9ac\u00b7\ub85c\ub9ac \ub85c\uac74\uc740 \u2018\uc644\ud654 \uc131\ud5a5(easing bias\u00b7\ud5a5\ud6c4 \uae08\ub9ac \uc778\ud558 \uac00\ub2a5\uc131\uc744 \uc2dc\uc0ac\ud558\ub294 \uae30\uc870)\u2019\uc744 \ubb38\uad6c\uc5d0 \ub123\ub294 \ub370 \ubc18\ub300\ud588\ub2e4.<\/p>\n
\ubbf8 \ub2ec\ub7ec\uc9c0\uc218(US Dollar Index\u00b7\uc8fc\uc694 \ud1b5\ud654 \ub300\ube44 \ub2ec\ub7ec \uac00\uce58\ub97c \ub098\ud0c0\ub0b4\ub294 \uc9c0\uc218)\ub294 0.37% \uc624\ub978 98.96\uc744 \uae30\ub85d\ud588\uace0, 10\ub144 \ub9cc\uae30 \ubbf8 \uad6d\ucc44\uae08\ub9ac(10-year Treasury yield\u00b7\ubbf8\uad6d \uad6d\ucc44 10\ub144\ubb3c \uc218\uc775\ub960)\ub294 8bp(\ubca0\uc774\uc2dc\uc2a4\ud3ec\uc778\ud2b8\u00b7\uae08\ub9ac 0.01%\ud3ec\uc778\ud2b8) \uc0c1\uc2b9\ud55c 4.43%\uc600\ub2e4. \uba38\ub2c8\ub9c8\ucf13(\ub2e8\uae30 \uae08\ub9ac \uc2dc\uc7a5)\uc740 \ud504\ub77c\uc784 \ud130\ubbf8\ub110 \ub370\uc774\ud130 \uae30\uc900\uc73c\ub85c 2027\ub144 4\uc6d4 \ud68c\uc758\uc5d0\uc11c \uae08\ub9ac \uc778\uc0c1 \uac00\ub2a5\uc131\uc744 29%\ub85c \ubc18\uc601\ud588\ub2e4(\uc2dc\uc7a5 \uac00\uaca9\uc5d0 \ub0b4\uc7ac\ub41c \ud655\ub960).<\/p>\n
\ubbf8\uad6d \uadfc\uc6d0 \ub0b4\uad6c\uc7ac \uc8fc\ubb38(Core Durable Goods Orders\u00b7\ubcc0\ub3d9\uc774 \ud070 \uc6b4\uc1a1\uc7a5\ube44 \ub4f1\uc744 \uc81c\uc678\ud55c \ub0b4\uad6c\uc7ac \uc8fc\ubb38)\uc740 2\uc6d4 1.6%\uc5d0 \uc774\uc5b4 3.3% \uc99d\uac00\ud574 \uc608\uc0c1\uce58 0.6%\ub97c \uc6c3\ub3cc\uc558\ub2e4. \uc804\uccb4 \ub0b4\uad6c\uc7ac \uc8fc\ubb38(Total orders)\uc740 \uc804\ub144 \ub300\ube44 -1.2%\uc5d0\uc11c +0.8%\ub85c \ub3cc\uc544\uc130\uace0, \uc608\uc0c1\uce58(+0.5%)\ub97c \uc0c1\ud68c\ud588\ub2e4.<\/p>\n
\uae08\uc740 4\uc8fc \uc800\uc810 \ubd80\uadfc\uc778 4,510\ub2ec\ub7ec \uc548\ud30e\uc5d0\uc11c \uc6c0\uc9c1\uc600\ub2e4. 4,500\ub2ec\ub7ec \uc544\ub798\ub85c \ub0b4\ub824\uac00\uba74 \uc9c0\uc9c0\uc120\uc740 4,482\ub2ec\ub7ec, 4,351\ub2ec\ub7ec, 200\uc77c \ub2e8\uc21c\uc774\ub3d9\ud3c9\uade0\uc120(200-day SMA\u00b7\ucd5c\uadfc 200\uac70\ub798\uc77c\uc758 \ud3c9\uade0 \uac00\uaca9) 4,269\ub2ec\ub7ec\ub2e4. \uc800\ud56d\uc120\uc740 4,600\ub2ec\ub7ec, 100\uc77c \ub2e8\uc21c\uc774\ub3d9\ud3c9\uade0\uc120(100-day SMA) 4,753\ub2ec\ub7ec, 50\uc77c \ub2e8\uc21c\uc774\ub3d9\ud3c9\uade0\uc120(50-day SMA) 4,848\ub2ec\ub7ec\ub85c \uc81c\uc2dc\ub410\ub2e4.<\/p>\n
\uae08\uc774 \ud575\uc2ec \uc9c0\uc9c0\uc120\uc744 \ubc11\ub3cc\uba74\uc11c \ub2e8\uae30\uc801\uc73c\ub85c\ub294 \ud558\ub77d(\uc57d\uc138) \ud3ec\uc9c0\uc158\uc774 \uc720\ub9ac\ud574 \ubcf4\uc778\ub2e4. \uae08 \uc120\ubb3c \ub610\ub294 \uad00\ub828 ETF(\uc0c1\uc7a5\uc9c0\uc218\ud380\ub4dc\u00b7\uc9c0\uc218\ub97c \ucd94\uc885\ud574 \uac70\ub798\uc18c\uc5d0\uc11c \uc8fc\uc2dd\ucc98\ub7fc \uac70\ub798\ub418\ub294 \ud380\ub4dc)\uc5d0 \ub300\ud574 \ud48b\uc635\uc158(put option\u00b7\uc815\ud574\uc9c4 \uac00\uaca9\uc5d0 \ud314 \uc218 \uc788\ub294 \uad8c\ub9ac)\uc744 \ub9e4\uc218\ud558\uba74 \uc190\uc2e4 \ubc94\uc704\ub97c \uc81c\ud55c(defined-risk\u00b7\ucd5c\ub300 \uc190\uc2e4\uc774 \uc635\uc158 \ud504\ub9ac\ubbf8\uc5c4\uc73c\ub85c \uc81c\ud55c)\ud558\uba74\uc11c 4,482\ub2ec\ub7ec\uc640 4,351\ub2ec\ub7ec \uc9c0\uc9c0 \uad6c\uac04\uc744 \ub178\ub9b4 \uc218 \uc788\ub2e4. \ub2e4\ub9cc \ud30c\uc6d4\uc744 \ub458\ub7ec\uc2fc \uc815\uce58 \uc774\uc288\uac00 \ucee4\uc9c8 \uacbd\uc6b0 \uc548\uc804\uc790\uc0b0 \uc120\ud638(flight-to-safety\u00b7\uc704\ud5d8 \uc790\uc0b0\uc5d0\uc11c \uc548\uc804 \uc790\uc0b0\uc73c\ub85c \uc790\uae08\uc774 \uc774\ub3d9)\ub85c \uae08\uac12\uc774 \uae09\ubc18\ub4f1\ud560 \uc218 \uc788\uc5b4 \uacbd\uacc4\uac00 \ud544\uc694\ud558\ub2e4.<\/p>\n
\ub2ec\ub7ec\ub294 \ub2e4\ub978 \uc8fc\uc694 \ud1b5\ud654 \ub300\ube44 \uac15\uc138\ub97c \uc774\uc5b4\uac08 \uac00\ub2a5\uc131\uc774 \uc788\uc5b4 \ub2ec\ub7ec\uc9c0\uc218(DXY\u00b7\ub2ec\ub7ec\uc9c0\uc218\uc758 \uc57d\uce6d)\uc5d0 \ub300\ud55c \ucf5c\uc635\uc158(call option\u00b7\uc815\ud574\uc9c4 \uac00\uaca9\uc5d0 \uc0b4 \uc218 \uc788\ub294 \uad8c\ub9ac)\uc774 \ub9e4\ub825\uc801\uc774\ub77c\ub294 \uc2dc\uac01\uc774 \ub098\uc628\ub2e4. \ub610\ud55c \uae08\ub9ac \uc0c1\uc2b9 \uc555\ub825\uc774 \uc774\uc5b4\uc9c4\ub2e4\ub294 \uc810\uc5d0\uc11c \uc7a5\uae30\ubb3c \uad6d\ucc44 ETF(\uc7a5\uae30 \ub9cc\uae30\uc758 \uad6d\ucc44\uc5d0 \ud22c\uc790\ud558\ub294 ETF)\uc5d0 \ub300\ud574 \ud48b\uc635\uc158\uc744 \ub9e4\uc218\ud558\ub294 \uc804\ub7b5\uc774 \uac70\ub860\ub41c\ub2e4. \uc2dc\uc7a5\uc740 \ub0b4\ub144 \uae08\ub9ac \uc778\uc0c1 \uac00\ub2a5\uc131\uc744 \u20180\uc774 \uc544\ub2cc \uc218\uc900\u2019\uc73c\ub85c \ubc18\uc601\ud558\uace0 \uc788\ub294\ub370, \uc774\ub294 \ubd88\uacfc \uba87 \ub2ec \uc804\uacfc \ube44\uad50\ud558\uba74 \ud070 \ubcc0\ud654\ub2e4.<\/p>\n
\uc5f0\uc900 \ub0b4\ubd80\uc758 \uc774\uacac\uc774 \ud070 \ub9cc\ud07c VIX \uc9c0\uc218(\ubcc0\ub3d9\uc131\uc9c0\uc218\u00b7S&P500 \uc635\uc158 \uac00\uaca9\uc744 \ubc14\ud0d5\uc73c\ub85c \uacc4\uc0b0\ud55c \uc2dc\uc7a5\uc758 \uacf5\ud3ec\/\ubcc0\ub3d9\uc131 \uc9c0\ud45c)\uc5d0 \ub300\ud55c \ucf5c\uc635\uc158 \ub9e4\uc218\ub294 \uc2dc\uc7a5 \ubd88\uc548 \ud655\ub300\uc5d0 \ub300\ud55c \uc9c1\uc811\uc801\uc778 \ud5e4\uc9c0(hedge\u00b7\uac00\uaca9 \ubcc0\ub3d9 \uc704\ud5d8\uc744 \uc904\uc774\uae30 \uc704\ud55c \ubc29\uc5b4) \uc218\ub2e8\uc774 \ub420 \uc218 \uc788\ub2e4. 1990\ub144\ub300 \ucd08\ubc18 \uc774\ud6c4 \ubcf4\uae30 \uc5b4\ub824\uc6e0\ub358 \uc218\uc900\uc758 \uc758\uacac \ubd84\uc5f4\uc774\uc5b4\uc11c, \uc6cc\uc2f1\ud134\ubc1c(\uc815\uce58) \ub3cc\ubc1c \ub274\uc2a4\ub098 \uc608\uc0c1 \ubc16 \uacbd\uc81c\uc9c0\ud45c\uac00 \uc790\uc0b0 \uac00\uaca9\uc5d0 \ubbf8\uce58\ub294 \uc601\ud5a5\uc774 \ub354 \ucee4\uc9c8 \uc218 \uc788\ub2e4.<\/p>\n
VT Markets \uc2e4\uacc4\uc88c \ub9cc\ub4e4\uae30<\/a>\u00a0\ubc0f\u00a0\uc9c0\uae08 \uac70\ub798 \uc2dc\uc791\ud558\uae30<\/a>. <\/b><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" \uc5f0\uc900 \uae08\ub9ac \ub3d9\uacb0\uc5d0\ub3c4 8\ub3004 \u2018\ube45\uc2a4\ud50c\ub9bf\u2019\u2026\ud30c\uc6d4 \uac70\ucde8 \ubc1c\uc5b8 \ub4a4 \ub2ec\ub7ec\u00b7\uad6d\ucc44\uae08\ub9ac \uae09\ub4f1\uc5d0 \uae08\uac12 1%\u2193. \uac15\ud55c \ub0b4\uad6c\uc7ac \uc9c0\ud45c\uae4c\uc9c0 \uacb9\uccd0 \uc57d\uc138 \uc6b0\uc704, \ud575\uc2ec \uc9c0\uc9c0\uc120 4500\ub2ec\ub7ec \uc2dc\ud5d8.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-45838","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/45838","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=45838"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/45838\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=45838"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=45838"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=45838"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}