{"id":45834,"date":"2026-04-30T02:21:53","date_gmt":"2026-04-30T02:21:53","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr\/uncategorized\/%ed%8c%8c%ec%9b%94-3%ec%9b%94-%ed%9a%8c%ec%9d%98-%ec%9d%b4%ed%9b%84-%ea%b8%b0%ec%a4%80%ea%b8%88%eb%a6%ac-%eb%8f%99%ea%b2%b0%ec%97%b0%ec%a4%80-%ec%96%b4%eb%8a%90-%eb%b0%a9%ed%96%a5\/"},"modified":"2026-04-30T02:21:53","modified_gmt":"2026-04-30T02:21:53","slug":"%ed%8c%8c%ec%9b%94-3%ec%9b%94-%ed%9a%8c%ec%9d%98-%ec%9d%b4%ed%9b%84-%ea%b8%b0%ec%a4%80%ea%b8%88%eb%a6%ac-%eb%8f%99%ea%b2%b0%ec%97%b0%ec%a4%80-%ec%96%b4%eb%8a%90-%eb%b0%a9%ed%96%a5","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/live-updates\/%ed%8c%8c%ec%9b%94-3%ec%9b%94-%ed%9a%8c%ec%9d%98-%ec%9d%b4%ed%9b%84-%ea%b8%b0%ec%a4%80%ea%b8%88%eb%a6%ac-%eb%8f%99%ea%b2%b0%ec%97%b0%ec%a4%80-%ec%96%b4%eb%8a%90-%eb%b0%a9%ed%96%a5\/","title":{"rendered":"\ud30c\uc6d4 \u201c3\uc6d4 \ud68c\uc758 \uc774\ud6c4 \uae30\uc900\uae08\ub9ac \ub3d9\uacb0\u2026\uc5f0\uc900, \uc5b4\ub290 \ubc29\ud5a5\uc73c\ub85c\ub4e0 \uc815\ucc45 \uc870\uc815\ud560 \uc5ec\uc9c0 \ucda9\ubd84\u201d"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>\uc5f0\ubc29\uc900\ube44\uc81c\ub3c4(Fed\u00b7\ubbf8\uad6d \uc911\uc559\uc740\ud589)\ub294 4\uc6d4 \ud68c\uc758\uc5d0\uc11c \uae30\uc900\uae08\ub9ac(\uc5f0\ubc29\uae30\uae08\uae08\ub9ac \ubaa9\ud45c\ubc94\uc704)\ub97c \uc608\uc0c1\ub300\ub85c 3.50%~3.75%\ub85c \ub3d9\uacb0\ud588\ub2e4. \ud45c\uacb0\uc740 8\ub300 4\ub85c \ud1b5\uacfc\ub410\ub2e4. 1\uba85\uc740 \uae08\ub9ac \uc778\ud558\uc5d0 \ucc2c\uc131\ud588\uace0, 3\uba85\uc740 \u201c\uc644\ud654 \ud3b8\ud5a5(easing bias\u00b7\ud5a5\ud6c4 \uae08\ub9ac \uc778\ud558 \uac00\ub2a5\uc131\uc744 \uc5f4\uc5b4\ub450\ub294 \uc2e0\ud638)\u201d\uc744 \uc131\uba85\uc5d0 \ub123\ub294 \ub370 \ubc18\ub300\ud588\ub2e4.<\/p>\n<p>\uc5f0\ubc29\uacf5\uac1c\uc2dc\uc7a5\uc704\uc6d0\ud68c(FOMC\u00b7\ubbf8 \uc5f0\uc900\uc758 \ud1b5\ud654\uc815\ucc45 \uacb0\uc815 \uae30\uad6c)\ub294 \uacbd\uc81c\ud65c\ub3d9\uc774 \uacac\uc870\ud55c \uc18d\ub3c4\ub85c \ud655\ub300\ub418\uace0 \uc788\uc9c0\ub9cc, \uc77c\uc790\ub9ac \uc99d\uac00 \ud3ed\uc740 \ud3c9\uade0\uc801\uc73c\ub85c \ub0ae\uc558\uace0 \uc2e4\uc5c5\ub960\uc740 \ud070 \ubcc0\ud654\uac00 \uc5c6\uc5c8\ub2e4\uace0 \ubc1d\ud614\ub2e4. \ubb3c\uac00\uc0c1\uc2b9\ub960(\uc778\ud50c\ub808\uc774\uc158)\uc740 \uc5ec\uc804\ud788 \ub192\uc740 \uc218\uc900\uc774\uba70, \uae00\ub85c\ubc8c \uc5d0\ub108\uc9c0 \uac00\uaca9\uacfc \uc911\ub3d9 \uc815\uc138\uac00 \ubd88\ud655\uc2e4\uc131\uc744 \ud0a4\uc6b0\uace0 \uc788\ub2e4\uace0 \ud588\ub2e4.<\/p>\n<h3>\uc815\ucc45 \uacbd\ub85c, \ubd88\ud655\uc2e4\uc131 \ud655\ub300<\/h3>\n<p>\uc81c\ub86c \ud30c\uc6d4 \uc758\uc7a5\uc740 \uc815\ucc45\uc774 \ubbf8\ub9ac \uc815\ud574\uc9c4 \uacbd\ub85c(preset course)\uac00 \uc544\ub2c8\uba70 \ud604\uc7ac \uc218\uc900\uc774 \uc801\uc808\ud558\ub2e4\uace0 \ubc1d\ud614\ub2e4. \uc774\uc5b4 \uc5f0\uc900\uc758 \u2018\uc774\uc911 \ucc45\ubb34(dual mandate\u00b7\ubb3c\uac00 \uc548\uc815\uacfc \ucd5c\ub300 \uace0\uc6a9)\u2019\ub97c \ub193\uace0 \uc0c1\u00b7\ud558\ubc29 \uc704\ud5d8\uc774 \ubaa8\ub450 \uc874\uc7ac\ud55c\ub2e4\uace0 \ub9d0\ud588\ub2e4. \uadf8\ub294 3\uc6d4 PCE \ubb3c\uac00\uc0c1\uc2b9\ub960\uc774 3.5%, \uadfc\uc6d0 PCE(\uc2dd\ud488\u00b7\uc5d0\ub108\uc9c0\ub97c \uc81c\uc678\ud55c \ubb3c\uac00) \uc0c1\uc2b9\ub960\uc774 3.2%\ub77c\uace0 \uc5b8\uae09\ud588\ub2e4. \ub2e8\uae30 \uae30\ub300\uc778\ud50c\ub808\uc774\uc158\uc740 \ub192\uc544\uc84c\uc9c0\ub9cc, \uc7a5\uae30 \uae30\ub300\uc778\ud50c\ub808\uc774\uc158\uc740 2% \ubaa9\ud45c\uc640 \ub300\uccb4\ub85c \uc77c\uce58\ud55c\ub2e4\uace0 \ud588\ub2e4.<\/p>\n<p>\ud30c\uc6d4 \uc758\uc7a5\uc740 \uc815\ucc45\uae08\ub9ac\uac00 \u2018\uc911\ub9bd\uae08\ub9ac(neutral rate\u00b7\uacbd\uae30\ub97c \uc790\uadf9\ud558\uc9c0\ub3c4 \uc704\ucd95\uc2dc\ud0a4\uc9c0\ub3c4 \uc54a\ub294 \uae08\ub9ac)\u2019\uc758 \uc0c1\ub2e8\uc5d0 \uc788\uace0 \uc57d\uac04 \uae34\ucd95\uc801\uc774\ub77c\uace0 \ub9d0\ud588\ub2e4. \ub610\ud55c \uc5f0\uc900\uc740 \uc5b4\ub290 \ubc29\ud5a5\uc73c\ub85c\ub4e0 \uc6c0\uc9c1\uc77c \uc218 \uc788\ub294 \uc704\uce58\uc5d0 \uc788\ub2e4\uace0 \uc124\uba85\ud588\ub2e4. \uc9c0\uae08\uc740 \uc5b4\ub290 \ub204\uad6c\ub3c4 \uae08\ub9ac \uc778\uc0c1\uc744 \uc694\uad6c\ud558\uc9c0 \uc54a\uc9c0\ub9cc, \uc778\uc0c1\uc774\ub098 \uc778\ud558\ub97c \ud558\uae30 \uc804\uc5d0\ub294 \uc2e0\ud638\ub97c \uc8fc\uaca0\ub2e4\uace0 \ub367\ubd99\uc600\ub2e4.<\/p>\n<p>\ubc1c\ud45c \uc9c1\ud6c4 \ubbf8 \ub2ec\ub7ec\uc778\ub371\uc2a4(\uc8fc\uc694 6\uac1c \ud1b5\ud654 \ub300\ube44 \ub2ec\ub7ec \uac00\uce58 \uc9c0\uc218)\ub294 \ubbf8 \uad6d\ucc44\uae08\ub9ac \uc0c1\uc2b9\uacfc \ud568\uaed8 99.00\uc120\uc73c\ub85c \uc62c\ub790\ub2e4. CME\uc758 FedWatch Tool(\uc5f0\ubc29\uae30\uae08\uae08\ub9ac \uc120\ubb3c \uac00\uaca9\uc744 \ubc14\ud0d5\uc73c\ub85c \ud5a5\ud6c4 \uae08\ub9ac \ud655\ub960\uc744 \ucd94\uc815\ud558\ub294 \uc9c0\ud45c)\uc740 2026\ub144 \ub9d0\uae4c\uc9c0 \uae08\ub9ac\uac00 \ud604 \uc218\uc900\uc5d0 \uba38\ubb3c \ud655\ub960\uc774 \uc57d 80%\ub77c\uace0 \uac00\ub9ac\ucf30\ub2e4. \ucd5c\uc18c 9\uc6d4\uae4c\uc9c0\ub294 \uae08\ub9ac \uc778\ud558 \uac00\ub2a5\uc131\uc774 \uac70\uc758 \uc5c6\ub2e4\ub294 \uc2e0\ud638\ub2e4.<\/p>\n<h3>\uc2dc\uc7a5 \ud3ec\uc9c0\uc154\ub2dd\uacfc \ubcc0\ub3d9\uc131<\/h3>\n<p>PCE \ubb3c\uac00\uc0c1\uc2b9\ub960\uc774 3.5%\uc774\uace0 WTI(\uc11c\ubd80\ud14d\uc0ac\uc2a4\uc0b0\uc6d0\uc720) \uac00\uaca9\uc774 \ubc30\ub7f4\ub2f9 90\ub2ec\ub7ec \uc704\uc5d0\uc11c \uc720\uc9c0\ub418\uba74\uc11c \uc2dc\uc7a5\uc758 \uc2dc\uc120\uc774 \ubc14\ub00c\uc5c8\ub2e4. 1970\ub144\ub300 \uc5d0\ub108\uc9c0 \ucda9\uaca9(\uc720\uac00 \uae09\ub4f1) \ub2f9\uc2dc\ucc98\ub7fc, \uace0\uc720\uac00\uac00 \uc7a5\uae30\uac04 \uc774\uc5b4\uc9c0\uba74 \uc911\uc559\uc740\ud589\uc774 \ub354 \uac15\uacbd\ud55c \ub300\uc751\uc744 \ud560 \uc218\ubc16\uc5d0 \uc5c6\ub2e4\ub294 \uc810\uc774 \ub2e4\uc2dc \ubd80\uac01\ub410\ub2e4. \ud30c\uc0dd\uc0c1\ud488 \uc2dc\uc7a5(\uc120\ubb3c\u00b7\uc635\uc158 \ub4f1)\uc740 \uc5f0\ub0b4 \uae08\ub9ac \uc778\ud558 \uc804\ub9dd\uc744 \uac70\uc758 \uc9c0\uc6b0\uace0 \uc788\uc73c\uba70, \ubb3c\uac00\uac00 \ub192\uc740 \uc218\uc900\uc5d0 \uace0\ucc29\ub420 \uc704\ud5d8\uc744 \ubc18\uc601\ud558\uace0 \uc788\ub2e4.<\/p>\n<p>\ub2ec\ub7ec\uc778\ub371\uc2a4(DXY)\uac00 99.00\uc120\uc73c\ub85c \uc62c\ub77c\uac00\ub294 \ud750\ub984\uc740 \uac15\ub2ec\ub7ec\uc5d0 \ubca0\ud305\ud558\ub294 \uac70\ub798\uac00 \ub298\uace0 \uc788\uc74c\uc744 \ubcf4\uc5ec\uc900\ub2e4. \ubbf8 \uad6d\ucc44\uae08\ub9ac \uc0c1\uc2b9\uc740 \ub2ec\ub7ec \ud45c\uc2dc \uc790\uc0b0(\ubbf8\uad6d \uc790\uc0b0)\uc744 \ubcf4\uc720\ud558\ub294 \ub9e4\ub825\uc744 \ub192\uc778\ub2e4. \uc55e\uc73c\ub85c \uba87 \uc8fc \ub3d9\uc548\uc740 \uac15\ub2ec\ub7ec\uc5d0 \uc720\ub9ac\ud558\uac70\ub098 \ub2ec\ub7ec \uc57d\uc138 \uc704\ud5d8\uc744 \uc904\uc774\ub294 \uc635\uc158 \uc804\ub7b5(\uc635\uc158\uc744 \ud65c\uc6a9\ud55c \ud5e4\uc9c0\u00b7\ubc29\uc5b4 \uc804\ub7b5)\uc744 \uac80\ud1a0\ud560 \ud544\uc694\uac00 \uc788\ub2e4.<\/p>\n<p>\uc704\uc6d0\ud68c \ub0b4\ubd80 \ud45c\uacb0\uc774 8\ub300 4\ub85c \uac08\ub9b0 \uac83\uc740 \uc774\uacac\uc774 \ud06c\ub2e4\ub294 \ub73b\uc774\uba70, \uc2dc\uc7a5 \ubcc0\ub3d9\uc131 \ud655\ub300 \uc694\uc778\uc774 \ub420 \uc218 \uc788\ub2e4. \ud5a5\ud6c4 60\uc77c\uc774 \uc911\uc694\ud574\uc9c0\uba74\uc11c \uc18c\ube44\uc790\ubb3c\uac00\uc9c0\uc218(CPI\u00b7\uac00\uacc4\uac00 \uad6c\ub9e4\ud558\ub294 \uc0c1\ud488\u00b7\uc11c\ube44\uc2a4 \uac00\uaca9 \ubcc0\ud654\ub97c \ubcf4\uc5ec\uc8fc\ub294 \uc9c0\ud45c)\uc640 \uace0\uc6a9\uc9c0\ud45c \ubc1c\ud45c \ub54c\ub9c8\ub2e4 \ud070 \ud3ed\uc758 \uac00\uaca9 \ubcc0\ub3d9\uc774 \ub098\ud0c0\ub0a0 \uac00\ub2a5\uc131\uc774 \uc788\ub2e4. \uc774\ub7f0 \ud658\uacbd\uc5d0\uc11c\ub294 \ubcc0\ub3d9\uc131 \uae30\ubc18 \uc804\ub7b5(\uac00\uaca9 \ubcc0\ub3d9 \ud3ed \ud655\ub300\uc5d0 \ubca0\ud305\ud558\ub294 \uc804\ub7b5)\uc778 \uc2a4\ud2b8\ub798\ub4e4(straddle\u00b7\uac19\uc740 \ud589\uc0ac\uac00\ub85c \ucf5c\uc635\uc158\uacfc \ud48b\uc635\uc158\uc744 \ub3d9\uc2dc\uc5d0 \ub9e4\uc218)\uc774\ub098 \uc2a4\ud2b8\ub7ad\uae00(strangle\u00b7\uc11c\ub85c \ub2e4\ub978 \ud589\uc0ac\uac00\ub85c \ucf5c\uc635\uc158\uacfc \ud48b\uc635\uc158\uc744 \ub3d9\uc2dc\uc5d0 \ub9e4\uc218) \uac19\uc740 \uc804\ub7b5\uc774 \uc8fc\ubaa9\ub420 \uc218 \uc788\ub2e4.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>\u2018\uae08\ub9ac \uc778\ud558\u2019 \uae30\ub300 \uaebe\uc600\ub2e4: Fed 3.50~3.75% \ub3d9\uacb0(8\ub3004) \uc18d \uace0\ubb3c\uac00\u00b7\uace0\uc720\uac00 \ubd88\ud655\uc2e4\uc131 \ud655\ub300. \ud30c\uc6d4 \u201c\uacbd\ub85c \uc5c6\ub2e4\u201d. \ub2ec\ub7ec\u00b7\uad6d\ucc44\uae08\ub9ac\u2191, \uc5f0\ub0b4 \uc778\ud558 \ud76c\ubc15, \ubcc0\ub3d9\uc131 \uc804\ub7b5 \ubd80\uc0c1.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-45834","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/45834","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=45834"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/45834\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=45834"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=45834"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=45834"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}