\uc5f0\ubc29\uc900\ube44\uc81c\ub3c4(Fed\u00b7\uc5f0\uc900)\ub294 \uae30\uc900\uae08\ub9ac(Fed Funds Rate\u00b7\uc5f0\ubc29\uae30\uae08\uae08\ub9ac)\ub97c 3.50~3.75%\ub85c \ub3d9\uacb0\ud560 \uac83\uc73c\ub85c \uc608\uc0c1\ub41c\ub2e4. \uc81c\ub86c \ud30c\uc6d4 \uc758\uc7a5\uc740 \uc758\uc7a5(Chair)\uc73c\ub85c\uc11c \ub9c8\uc9c0\ub9c9 \uae30\uc790\ud68c\uacac\uc744 \uc9c4\ud589\ud560 \uc804\ub9dd\uc774\ub2e4. \uc2dc\uc7a5\uc758 \ub17c\uc758\ub294 \ucf00\ube48 \uc6cc\uc2dc\uc758 \ud1b5\ud654\uc815\ucc45 \uc811\uadfc\uc5d0 \uc3e0\ub824 \uc788\uc73c\uba70, \uadf8\ub294 \ud2b8\ub9bc\ub4dc-\ud3c9\uade0 \ubb3c\uac00(trimmed-mean inflation\u00b7\uadf9\ub2e8\uac12\uc744 \uc81c\uc678\ud574 \uc65c\uace1\uc744 \uc904\uc778 \ud3c9\uade0 \ubb3c\uac00)\uc640 \uc778\uacf5\uc9c0\ub2a5(AI)\ub85c \uc778\ud55c \uc0dd\uc0b0\uc131 \uac1c\uc120\uc744 \ud575\uc2ec \ubcc0\uc218\ub85c \ubcf8\ub2e4.<\/p>\n
4\uc6d4 24\uc77c \ubc95\ubb34\ubd80(Department of Justice)\ub294 \uc5f0\uc900 \uccad\uc0ac \ub9ac\ubaa8\ub378\ub9c1 \uad00\ub828 \uc870\uc0ac(probe\u00b7\uc218\uc0ac\/\uc870\uc0ac)\ub97c \uc885\ub8cc\ud588\ub2e4. \uc774\uc5b4 4\uc6d4 26\uc77c \uacf5\ud654\ub2f9 \uc0c1\uc6d0\uc758\uc6d0 \ud1b0 \ud2f8\ub9ac\uc2a4\uac00 \uc6cc\uc2dc \uc9c0\uba85\uc744 \ub9c9\ub294 \uc785\uc7a5\uc5d0\uc11c \uc9c0\uc9c0\ub85c \ub3cc\uc544\uc11c\uba74\uc11c, \ud30c\uc6d4\uc774 2028\ub144 1\uc6d4\uae4c\uc9c0 \uc774\uc0ac(Governor\u00b7\uc5f0\uc900 \uc774\uc0ac\ud68c \uad6c\uc131\uc6d0)\ub85c \ub0a8\uc744\uc9c0 \uc5ec\ubd80\uc5d0 \uc601\ud5a5\uc744 \uc904 \uc218 \uc788\ub2e4\ub294 \uad00\uce21\uc774 \ub098\uc628\ub2e4.<\/p>\n
\uc6cc\uc2dc\ub294 \uadfc\uc6d0 PCE \ubb3c\uac00(core PCE inflation\u00b7\ubcc0\ub3d9\uc131\uc774 \ud070 \uc2dd\ud488\u00b7\uc5d0\ub108\uc9c0\ub97c \uc81c\uc678\ud55c \uac1c\uc778\uc18c\ube44\uc9c0\ucd9c \ubb3c\uac00)\ubcf4\ub2e4 \ud2b8\ub9bc\ub4dc-\ud3c9\uade0 \ubb3c\uac00\ub97c \ub354 \uc911\uc2dc\ud558\uc790\ub294 \uc785\uc7a5\uc744 \uc81c\uc2dc\ud588\ub2e4. \ub3d9\uc2dc\uc5d0 AI \uc0dd\uc0b0\uc131 \uac1c\uc120\uc744 \uadfc\uac70\ub85c, \uae08\ub9ac\ub294 \ub0ae\ucd94\ub418(barbell approach\u00b7\ud55c\ucabd\uc740 \uae08\ub9ac \uc778\ud558, \ub2e4\ub978 \ud55c\ucabd\uc740 \ub300\ucc28\ub300\uc870\ud45c \ucd95\uc18c \uac19\uc740 \uc0c1\ubc18\ub41c \uc815\ucc45\uc744 \ud568\uaed8 \ucd94\uc9c4\ud558\ub294 \ubc29\uc2dd) \uc5f0\uc900\uc758 \uc790\uc0b0\uaddc\ubaa8\ub97c \uc904\uc774\ub294(balance-sheet reduction\u00b7\uc591\uc801\uae34\ucd95, \ubcf4\uc720\ucc44\uad8c \ucd95\uc18c) \uc870\ud569\uc744 \uac15\uc870\ud55c\ub2e4. \uc804\uc7c1\uc5d0 \ub530\ub978 \uc5d0\ub108\uc9c0 \uac00\uaca9 \ub9ac\uc2a4\ud06c\ub294 \uc815\ucc45 \ud310\ub2e8\uc5d0\uc11c \ube44\uc911\uc774 \uc904\uc5b4\ub4e4 \uc218 \uc788\ub2e4\ub294 \ub17c\ub9ac\ub2e4.<\/p>\n
\uc774\ub294 1990\ub144\ub300 \uc568\ub7f0 \uadf8\ub9b0\uc2a4\ud380 \uc2dc\uc808, CPI(\uc18c\ube44\uc790\ubb3c\uac00\uc9c0\uc218)\ubcf4\ub2e4 \ub0ae\uac8c \uc6c0\uc9c1\uc774\ub358 \uadfc\uc6d0 PCE \ub514\ud50c\ub808\uc774\ud130(\ubb3c\uac00\uc0c1\uc2b9\ub960 \uc9c0\ud45c)\ub97c \ud65c\uc6a9\ud574 \uc0dd\uc0b0\uc131 \uc0c1\uc2b9 \uad6d\uba74\uc5d0\uc11c \uc644\ud654\uc801 \ud1b5\ud654\uc815\ucc45\uc744 \ub4b7\ubc1b\uce68\ud588\ub358 \ud750\ub984\uacfc \ube44\uad50\ub41c\ub2e4. \ub610\ud55c \uc6d0\uc720 \uacf5\uae09 \uacfc\uc789(oil supply glut\u00b7\uacf5\uae09\uc774 \uc218\uc694\ub97c \ud06c\uac8c \uc6c3\ub3c4\ub294 \uc0c1\ud669) \uac00\ub2a5\uc131\uc774 \ucee4\uc838 \uc720\uac00\uac00 \uc548\uc815\ub418\uba74, \ub2ec\ub7ec(USD)\uac00 \uc548\uc804\uc790\uc0b0 \ud504\ub9ac\ubbf8\uc5c4(haven premium\u00b7\uc704\ud5d8\ud68c\ud53c \uad6d\uba74\uc5d0\uc11c \ub2ec\ub7ec\uac00 \ucd94\uac00\ub85c \uac15\ud574\uc9c0\ub294 \ud6a8\uacfc)\uc744 \uc783\uace0 \ucc28\uae30 \uc758\uc7a5\uc758 \uc815\ucc45 \uc804\ud658\uc744 \ub4b7\ubc1b\uce68\ud560 \uc218 \uc788\ub2e4\ub294 \uc8fc\uc7a5\ub3c4 \uc81c\uae30\ub41c\ub2e4.<\/p>\n
\uc5f0\uc900\uc774 \uae08\ub9ac\ub97c 3.50~3.75%\ub85c \uc720\uc9c0\ud558\ub294 \uac00\uc6b4\ub370, \uc2dc\uc7a5\uc758 \uc989\uac01\uc801\uc778 \ucd08\uc810\uc740 \ub9ac\ub354\uc2ed \uad50\uccb4\uc5d0 \ub9de\ucdb0\uc9c0\uace0 \uc788\ub2e4. \ud30c\uc6d4\uc740 \ud1f4\uc784 \uc218\uc21c\uc73c\ub85c, \uc6cc\uc2dc\uac00 \ud6c4\uc784\uc73c\ub85c \ubd80\uc0c1\ud558\uba70 2025\ub144\uae4c\uc9c0\uc758 \uae30\uc870\uc640\ub294 \ub2e4\ub978 \uc815\ucc45 \uc804\ud658 \uac00\ub2a5\uc131\uc774 \uac70\ub860\ub41c\ub2e4. \uc774 \ubcc0\ud654\ub294 \ud5a5\ud6c4 \uc218\uc8fc\uac04 \ud3ec\uc9c0\uc154\ub2dd\uc5d0\uc11c \uac00\uc7a5 \ud070 \ubcc0\uc218\ub85c \ud3c9\uac00\ub41c\ub2e4.<\/p>\n
\ucc28\uae30 \uc758\uc7a5\uc758 \uc815\ucc45 \ud2c0\uc740 \uadfc\uc6d0 PCE\ub97c \ub4a4\ub85c\ud558\uace0 \ud2b8\ub9bc\ub4dc-\ud3c9\uade0 \ubb3c\uac00\uc640 AI \uae30\ubc18 \uc0dd\uc0b0\uc131 \uac1c\uc120\uc744 \uc804\uba74\uc5d0 \ub193\ub294\ub2e4\ub294 \uc810\uc5d0\uc11c \ud070 \ubcc0\ud654\ub85c \ud574\uc11d\ub41c\ub2e4. \ucd5c\uadfc \uc9c0\ud45c\ub3c4 \uc774\ub97c \ub4b7\ubc1b\uce68\ud55c\ub2e4. \ub308\ub7ec\uc2a4 \uc5f0\uc740\uc758 \ud2b8\ub9bc\ub4dc-\ud3c9\uade0 PCE\ub294 2026\ub144 3\uc6d4 2.4%\ub85c, \uc804\uccb4 PCE(\ud5e4\ub4dc\ub77c\uc778 PCE\u00b7\uc2dd\ud488\u00b7\uc5d0\ub108\uc9c0 \ud3ec\ud568) 2.9%\ub97c \ud06c\uac8c \ubc11\ub3cc\uc558\ub2e4. \uc774\ub294 \ub2e4\ub978 \ubb3c\uac00 \uc9c0\ud45c\uac00 \ub192\uac8c \ub098\uc640\ub3c4 \uae08\ub9ac \uc778\ud558\ub97c \uc8fc\uc7a5\ud560 \uba85\ubd84\uc774 \ub420 \uc218 \uc788\ub2e4\ub294 \ud3c9\uac00\ub2e4.<\/p>\n
\uae08\ub9ac\ub97c \ub0b4\ub9ac\uba74\uc11c\ub3c4 \ub300\ucc28\ub300\uc870\ud45c\ub97c \uc904\uc778\ub2e4\ub294 \uc804\ub7b5\uc740 \uc774\ubbf8 \uc2dc\uc7a5 \uac00\uaca9\uc5d0 \ubd80\ubd84 \ubc18\uc601\ub418\uace0 \uc788\ub2e4. \uc5f0\ubc29\uae30\uae08\uae08\ub9ac \uc120\ubb3c(Fed funds futures\u00b7\ud5a5\ud6c4 \uc815\ucc45\uae08\ub9ac \uae30\ub300\ub97c \ubc18\uc601\ud558\ub294 \uc120\ubb3c)\uc740 7\uc6d4 \ud68c\uc758\uc5d0\uc11c 25bp(bp\u00b7\ubca0\uc774\uc2dc\uc2a4\ud3ec\uc778\ud2b8, 0.01%\ud3ec\uc778\ud2b8) \uc778\ud558 \ud655\ub960\uc774 75%\ub97c \ub118\ub294 \uac83\uc73c\ub85c \ub098\ud0c0\ub09c\ub2e4. \uc774\uc5d0 \ub530\ub77c \ub2e8\uae30\uae08\ub9ac \ud558\ub77d\uc5d0 \uc218\uc775\uc774 \ub098\ub294 \uae08\ub9ac \ud30c\uc0dd\uc0c1\ud488(interest rate derivatives\u00b7\uae08\ub9ac \ubcc0\ub3d9\uc5d0 \uc5f0\ub3d9\ub418\ub294 \uc120\ubb3c\u00b7\uc635\uc158), \uc608\ub97c \ub4e4\uc5b4 SOFR \uc120\ubb3c\/\uc635\uc158(SOFR\u00b7\ubbf8\uad6d \ub2ec\ub7ec \ucd08\ub2e8\uae30 \ubb34\uc704\ud5d8 \uae08\ub9ac \uc9c0\ud45c)\uc5d0 \ub300\ud55c \ub300\uc751\uc774 \uac70\ub860\ub41c\ub2e4.<\/p>\n
\uc6cc\uc2dc\uc758 \ub17c\ub9ac\ub294 1990\ub144\ub300 \ud6c4\ubc18 \uc0dd\uc0b0\uc131 \ud638\ud669\uc73c\ub85c \uc815\ucc45 \uc644\ud654\uac00 \uac00\ub2a5\ud588\ub358 \uadf8\ub9b0\uc2a4\ud380 \uc2dc\uae30\uc640 \uc720\uc0ac\ud558\ub2e4\ub294 \ud3c9\uac00\ub2e4. 2026\ub144 1\ubd84\uae30 \uc0dd\uc0b0\uc131\uc740 \uc5f0\uc728 3.5%\ub85c \uac15\ud558\uac8c \ub098\uc640, AI\uac00 \ubb3c\uac00\ub97c \ub0ae\ucd94\ub294 \uc555\ub825(deflationary pressures\u00b7\uac00\uaca9 \uc0c1\uc2b9\uc744 \ub204\ub974\ub294 \ud798)\uc744 \ub9cc\ub4e4 \uc218 \uc788\ub2e4\ub294 \uc8fc\uc7a5\uc5d0 \ud798\uc744 \uc2e3\ub294\ub2e4. \uc774 \uac19\uc740 \uacfc\uac70 \uc0ac\ub840\ub294 \u2018\uacbd\uae30 \uac15\uc138 \uc18d \uae08\ub9ac \ud558\ub77d\u2019 \uad6d\uba74\uc744 \uc2dc\uc0ac\ud558\uba70, \uc704\ud5d8\uc790\uc0b0(risk assets\u00b7\uc8fc\uc2dd\u00b7\ud68c\uc0ac\ucc44 \ub4f1 \uc704\ud5d8\uc744 \uac10\uc218\ud558\ub294 \uc790\uc0b0)\uc5d0 \uc6b0\ud638\uc801 \ud658\uacbd\uc774 \ub420 \uc218 \uc788\ub2e4\ub294 \ud574\uc11d\uc774\ub2e4.<\/p>\n
\ub610\ud55c \uc9c0\ub09c\ud574 \uc5d0\ub108\uc9c0 \ucda9\uaca9\uc774 \uc644\ud654\ub418\uba74\uc11c \ub2ec\ub7ec\uc758 \uc548\uc804\uc790\uc0b0 \uc9c0\uc704\uac00 \uc57d\ud574\uc9c0\uace0 \uc788\ub2e4\ub294 \uc2dc\uac01\ub3c4 \uc788\ub2e4. WTI(\uc11c\ubd80\ud14d\uc0ac\uc2a4\uc0b0 \uc6d0\uc720) \uac00\uaca9\uc740 \uc5f0\ucd08 90\ub2ec\ub7ec\ub97c \uc6c3\ub3cc\ub358 \uc218\uc900\uc5d0\uc11c \ucd5c\uadfc \ubc30\ub7f4\ub2f9 80\ub2ec\ub7ec \uc544\ub798\ub85c \ub0b4\ub824\uc654\ub2e4. \ube44OPEC(\uc11d\uc720\uc218\ucd9c\uad6d\uae30\uad6c \ube44\ud68c\uc6d0\uad6d) \uc99d\uc0b0\uc73c\ub85c \uacf5\uae09 \uacfc\uc789 \uc6b0\ub824\uac00 \ucee4\uc9c4 \uc601\ud5a5\uc774\ub77c\ub294 \ubd84\uc11d\uc774 \uc81c\uc2dc\ub41c\ub2e4. \uc774\ub294 \ub2ec\ub7ec \uac15\uc138\uc758 \ud55c \ucd95\uc744 \uc57d\ud654\uc2dc\ud0a4\ub294 \uc694\uc778\uc73c\ub85c \uac70\ub860\ub41c\ub2e4.<\/p>\n
\uc774\ub7ec\ud55c \ud658\uacbd\uc5d0\uc11c \ub2ec\ub7ec \uc57d\uc138\uc5d0 \ubca0\ud305\ud558\ub294 \ud1b5\ud654 \uc635\uc158(currency options\u00b7\ud658\uc728 \ubcc0\ub3d9\uc5d0 \ub300\ud55c \uad8c\ub9ac\ub97c \uc0ac\uace0\ud30c\ub294 \uc635\uc158) \uae30\ud68c\uac00 \uc5b8\uae09\ub418\uba70, \ud2b9\ud788 \ub9e4\ud30c\uc801(hawkish\u00b7\ubb3c\uac00 \uc5b5\uc81c\ub97c \uc704\ud574 \uae08\ub9ac\ub97c \ub192\uac8c \uc720\uc9c0\ud558\ub824\ub294 \uc131\ud5a5) \uae30\uc870\ub97c \uc720\uc9c0\ud560 \uac00\ub2a5\uc131\uc774 \ud070 \uc911\uc559\uc740\ud589\uc744 \uac00\uc9c4 \ud1b5\ud654 \ub300\ube44 \uc804\ub7b5\uc774 \uac70\ub860\ub41c\ub2e4. \ub3d9\uc2dc\uc5d0 \uae08\ub9ac \ubcc0\ub3d9\uc131(interest rate volatility\u00b7\uae08\ub9ac\uc758 \ud754\ub4e4\ub9bc)\uc774 \ub0ae\uc544\uc9c0\ub294 \ubc29\ud5a5\uc758 \uac70\ub798\ub3c4 \uc81c\uc2dc\ub41c\ub2e4. \uc0c8 \uc5f0\uc900 \ub9ac\ub354\uc2ed\uc774 \uc644\ud654\ub85c \uac00\ub294 \uacbd\ub85c\ub97c \ube44\uad50\uc801 \ubd84\uba85\ud558\uac8c \uc608\uace0\ud558\uba74, \ubcc0\ub3d9\uc131 \ub9e4\ub3c4 \uc804\ub7b5\uc774 \uc720\ub9ac\ud560 \uc218 \uc788\ub2e4\ub294 \ub17c\ub9ac\ub2e4. \uc608\ub97c \ub4e4\uc5b4 \ubbf8 \uad6d\ucc44 \uc120\ubb3c(Treasury futures)\uc5d0\uc11c \uc2a4\ud2b8\ub798\ub4e4 \ub9e4\ub3c4(selling straddles\u00b7\uac19\uc740 \ub9cc\uae30\u00b7\ud589\uc0ac\uac00\uc758 \ucf5c\uacfc \ud48b\uc744 \ud568\uaed8 \ud314\uc544 \ubcc0\ub3d9\uc131\uc774 \ub0ae\uc744 \ub54c \uc218\uc775\uc744 \ub178\ub9ac\ub294 \uc804\ub7b5)\uac00 \ub300\uc548\uc73c\ub85c \uc5b8\uae09\ub41c\ub2e4.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
\ud30c\uc6d4 \u2018\ub9c8\uc9c0\ub9c9 \ud68c\uacac\u2019 \uc55e\ub450\uace0 \uc5f0\uc900 \uae08\ub9ac 3.50~3.75% \ub3d9\uacb0 \uc804\ub9dd. \uc6cc\uc2dc \ubd80\uc0c1\uc5d0 \ud2b8\ub9bc\ub4dc-\ud3c9\uade0 \ubb3c\uac00\u00b7AI \uc0dd\uc0b0\uc131 \uae30\ubc18 \u2018\uc778\ud558+QT\u2019 \ud504\ub808\uc784 \uc804\ud658, \ub2ec\ub7ec \uc57d\uc138\u00b7\ubcc0\ub3d9\uc131 \ucd95\uc18c \ubca0\ud305 \ud655\uc0b0.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-45799","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/45799","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=45799"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/45799\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=45799"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=45799"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=45799"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}