\ubbf8\uad6d \uc99d\uc2dc \uc8fc\uc694 \uc9c0\uc218\ub294 \uc911\ub3d9 \ubd84\uc7c1\uc5d0\ub3c4 \ubd88\uad6c\ud558\uace0 \uc0ac\uc0c1 \ucd5c\uace0\uce58 \ubd80\uadfc\uc5d0 \uc788\ub2e4. \uc774 \uae00\uc740 \uacbd\uae30\uce68\uccb4 \uc704\ud5d8, \ubb3c\uac00(\uc778\ud50c\ub808\uc774\uc158) \uc0c1\uc2b9\uacfc \ucd94\uac00 \uae08\ub9ac \uc778\uc0c1 \uac00\ub2a5\uc131\uc5d0 \ub300\ud55c \uc6b0\ub824\ub97c \ub2e4\ub8e8\uba70, \ubbf8\uad6d \uc8fc\uc2dd\uc774 \uace0\ud3c9\uac00(\uc2e4\uc801\u00b7\uacbd\uae30 \ub300\ube44 \uc8fc\uac00\uac00 \uacfc\ub3c4\ud558\uac8c \ub192\uc740 \uc0c1\ud0dc)\ub410\ub294\uc9c0 \ud310\ub2e8\ud558\ub294 \uc9c0\ud45c\ub4e4\uc744 \uc18c\uac1c\ud55c\ub2e4.<\/p>\n
\uae00\uc740 \u2018\ubc84\ud54f \uc9c0\ud45c(Buffett indicator)\u2019\ub97c \uc124\uba85\ud55c\ub2e4. \ubc84\ud54f \uc9c0\ud45c\ub294 **\ubbf8\uad6d \uc804\uccb4 \uc8fc\uc2dd\uc2dc\uc7a5\uc758 \uc2dc\uac00\ucd1d\uc561(\uc0c1\uc7a5\uae30\uc5c5\uc758 \uc8fc\uac00\u00d7\uc8fc\uc2dd \uc218\ub97c \ud569\uc0b0\ud55c \uac12)**\uc744 **\ubbf8\uad6d \uad6d\ub0b4\ucd1d\uc0dd\uc0b0(GDP\u00b7\ud55c \ub098\ub77c\uc758 \uc5f0\uac04 \uc0dd\uc0b0 \uaddc\ubaa8)**\uc73c\ub85c \ub098\ub208 \uac12\uc774\ub2e4. \uc77c\ubc18\uc801\uc73c\ub85c 100% \uc548\ud30e \ub610\ub294 \uadf8 \uc774\ud558\ub294 \ud754\ud55c \uc218\uc900\uc774\uba70, 70~80%\ub294 \ub9e4\ub825\uc801\uc778 \uad6c\uac04\uc73c\ub85c \ubd84\ub958\ub41c\ub2e4. 200%\uc5d0 \uac00\uae5d\uac70\ub098 \uc774\ub97c \ub118\uc73c\uba74 \uace0\ud3c9\uac00 \uc2e0\ud638\ub85c \ud574\uc11d\ub418\uba70 \uc704\ud5d8\uc774 \ucee4\uc9c4\ub2e4\uace0 \uc124\uba85\ud55c\ub2e4.<\/p>\n
\uae00\uc740 \ubc84\ud54f \uc9c0\ud45c\uac00 \ud604\uc7ac 220%\ub97c \uc6c3\ub3c8\ub2e4\uace0 \ubc1d\ud78c\ub2e4. \ub610\ud55c \ub2f7\ucef4 \ubc84\ube14 \ub2f9\uc2dc(2000\ub144 \uc804\ud6c4)\uc5d0\ub294 \uc57d 150%\uae4c\uc9c0 \uc62c\ub790\ub294\ub370, \uc774\ub294 \ud604\uc7ac \uc218\uc900\ubcf4\ub2e4 \ub0ae\uc558\ub2e4\uace0 \ub367\ubd99\uc778\ub2e4.<\/p>\n
\uc774\uc5b4 \u2018\uc2e4\ub7ec PER(Shiller PE ratio)\u2019\uc744 \ub2e4\ub8ec\ub2e4. \uc774\ub294 **S&P500 \uc9c0\uc218\uc758 \ud3c9\uade0 \uc8fc\uac00 \uc218\uc900**\uc744 **\ucd5c\uadfc 10\ub144 \ud3c9\uade0\uc758 \ubb3c\uac00 \ubc18\uc601(\uc778\ud50c\ub808\uc774\uc158 \uc870\uc815) \uc774\uc775**\uacfc \ube44\uad50\ud55c \uc7a5\uae30 \ubc38\ub958\uc5d0\uc774\uc158 \uc9c0\ud45c\ub85c, 100\ub144\uce58 \ud750\ub984\uc774 \uc81c\uc2dc\ub41c\ub2e4\uace0 \ud55c\ub2e4. \uae00\uc740 \ud574\ub2f9 \ube44\uc728\uc774 \ud604\uc7ac 40\uc5d0 \uadfc\uc811\ud574 2000\ub144\ub300 \ucd08 \ub2f7\ucef4 \uc2dc\uae30\uc640 \ube44\uc2b7\ud558\uba70, \u2018\uad11\ub780\uc758 1920\ub144\ub300\u2019 \ub54c\ubcf4\ub2e4\ub3c4 \ub192\ub2e4\uace0 \ub9d0\ud55c\ub2e4.<\/p>\n
\ub2e4\uc74c\uc73c\ub85c \uac00\uacc4\uc758 \uc8fc\uc2dd \ub178\ucd9c\ub3c4(\uac00\uacc4\uac00 \uc8fc\uc2dd\uc5d0 \uc5bc\ub9c8\ub098 \ud06c\uac8c \ud22c\uc790\ub3fc \uc788\ub294\uc9c0)\ub97c \uc124\uba85\ud55c\ub2e4. **\uc8fc\uc2dd\uc758 \uc2dc\uc7a5\uac00\uce58(\ubcf4\uc720 \uc8fc\uc2dd \ud3c9\uac00\uc561)**\ub97c **\ubbf8\uad6d \uac00\uacc4 \uc21c\uc790\uc0b0(\uc790\uc0b0\uc5d0\uc11c \ubd80\ucc44\ub97c \ube80 \uac12)**\uc73c\ub85c \ub098\ub208 \ube44\uc728\uc778\ub370, \uc0ac\uc0c1 \ucd5c\uace0\uce58 \ub610\ub294 \uadf8\uc5d0 \uadfc\uc811\ud55c \uc218\uc900\uc774\ub77c\uace0 \ud55c\ub2e4. \ub610\ud55c \uc778\uacf5\uc9c0\ub2a5(AI\u00b7\uc0ac\ub78c\uc758 \uc778\uc9c0\u00b7\ud310\ub2e8\uc744 \ud749\ub0b4 \ub0b4\ub3c4\ub85d \ub9cc\ub4e0 \uc18c\ud504\ud2b8\uc6e8\uc5b4\u00b7\ubaa8\ub378) \ub4f1 \uc77c\ubd80 \uc601\uc5ed\uc5d0\uc11c \ub192\uc740 \ubc38\ub958\uc5d0\uc774\uc158\uc774 \ub098\ud0c0\ub098\uba70, \ud604\uc7ac \uc774\uc775\uc744 \ub0b4\uc9c0 \ubabb\ud558\ub294 \uae30\uc5c5\ub4e4\uae4c\uc9c0 \ud3ec\ud568\ub41c\ub2e4\uace0 \uc5b8\uae09\ud55c\ub2e4.<\/p>\n
\uc2dc\uc7a5\uc758 \uace0\ud3c9\uac00\ub294 \ubc84\ud54f \uc9c0\ud45c\uc5d0\uc11c\ub3c4 \ud655\uc778\ub41c\ub2e4. \ubc84\ud54f \uc9c0\ud45c\ub294 \ud55c \ub098\ub77c\uc758 GDP \ub300\ube44 \uc8fc\uc2dd\uc2dc\uc7a5 \uc804\uccb4\uc758 \uc2dc\uac00\ucd1d\uc561 \ube44\uc911\uc744 \ubcf4\uc5ec\uc900\ub2e4. 2025\ub144\uc5d0 220%\ub97c \ub118\uc5c8\ub358 \uace0\uc810\uc5d0\uc11c \ub0ae\uc544\uc9c0\uae34 \ud588\uc9c0\ub9cc, 2026\ub144 4\uc6d4 \uae30\uc900 \uc57d 185%\ub85c \ucd94\uc815\ub41c\ub2e4. \uc774\ub294 \uacfc\uac70 \ud3c9\uade0\uc744 \ud06c\uac8c \uc0c1\ud68c\ud558\uace0 \ub2f7\ucef4 \ubc84\ube14 \uc815\uc810\ubcf4\ub2e4\ub3c4 \ub192\uc544, \uc2dc\uc7a5\uc774 \uc5ec\uc804\ud788 \ubd88\uc548\uc815\ud558\ub2e4\ub294 \uc2e0\ud638\ub85c \ud574\uc11d\ub41c\ub2e4.<\/p>\n
\uc2e4\ub7ec PER\ub3c4 \uacbd\uacc4\ub860\uc744 \ub4b7\ubc1b\uce68\ud55c\ub2e4. \uc2e4\ub7ec PER\uc740 \uc8fc\uac00\ub97c 10\ub144 \ud3c9\uade0(\ubb3c\uac00 \ubc18\uc601) \uc774\uc775\uacfc \ube44\uad50\ud55c\ub2e4. \ud604\uc7ac \uc57d 35 \uc218\uc900\uc73c\ub85c, \uacfc\uac70 1929\ub144 \ub300\ud3ed\ub77d\uacfc 2000\ub144 IT \uac70\ud488 \ubd95\uad34\ucc98\ub7fc \ud070 \ud558\ub77d\uc774 \ub098\ud0c0\ub098\uae30 \uc804\uc5d0\ub3c4 \uad00\uce21\ub410\ub358 \uad6c\uac04\uc774\ub77c\ub294 \uc124\uba85\uc774\ub2e4. \uc774\ub7f0 \ubc38\ub958\uc5d0\uc774\uc158\uc740 \uc55e\uc73c\ub85c\uc758 \uae30\ub300\uc218\uc775\ub960(\ud22c\uc790\uc790\uac00 \uc7a5\uae30\uac04\uc5d0 \uac78\uccd0 \uae30\ub300\ud560 \uc218 \uc788\ub294 \ud3c9\uade0 \uc131\uacfc)\uc774 \uacfc\uac70\ubcf4\ub2e4 \ub0ae\uc744 \uac00\ub2a5\uc131\uc744 \uc2dc\uc0ac\ud55c\ub2e4.<\/p>\n
\ucd5c\uadfc \uacbd\uc81c\uc9c0\ud45c\ub294 \uae34\uc7a5\uc744 \ub354 \ud0a4\uc6b0\uba70 \uc815\ucc45 \ud310\ub2e8 \uc2e4\uc218 \uac00\ub2a5\uc131\uc744 \ub192\uc600\ub2e4\ub294 \ud3c9\uac00\ub2e4. 2026\ub144 3\uc6d4 \uc18c\ube44\uc790\ubb3c\uac00\uc9c0\uc218(CPI\u00b7\uac00\uacc4\uac00 \uad6c\ub9e4\ud558\ub294 \uc0c1\ud488\u00b7\uc11c\ube44\uc2a4 \uac00\uaca9 \ubcc0\ub3d9\uc744 \ubcf4\uc5ec\uc8fc\ub294 \ubb3c\uac00 \uc9c0\ud45c)\ub294 \uc778\ud50c\ub808\uc774\uc158\uc774 3.1%\ub85c \uc608\uc0c1\ubcf4\ub2e4 \uc27d\uac8c \uaebe\uc774\uc9c0 \uc54a\uc558\uc74c\uc744 \ubcf4\uc5ec\uc92c\uace0, \uc5f0\ubc29\uc900\ube44\uc81c\ub3c4(Fed\u00b7\ubbf8\uad6d \uc911\uc559\uc740\ud589)\uac00 \uc62c\uc5ec\ub984 \uae08\ub9ac \uc778\ud558\ub97c \uc2dc\uc791\ud560 \uac83\uc774\ub780 \uae30\ub300\uc5d0 \uc81c\ub3d9\uc744 \uac78\uc5c8\ub2e4. \uc2dc\uc7a5\uc740 \u2018\uace0\uae08\ub9ac \uc7a5\uae30\ud654(higher for longer\u00b7\uae08\ub9ac\uac00 \ub192\uc740 \uc218\uc900\uc5d0\uc11c \uc624\ub798 \uc720\uc9c0\ub418\ub294 \ud658\uacbd)\u2019\ub97c \ubc18\uc601\ud558\uace0 \uc788\uc73c\uba70, \uc774\ub294 \ud1b5\uc0c1 \uc8fc\uc2dd\uc758 \uc801\uc815\uac00\uce58(\ubc38\ub958\uc5d0\uc774\uc158)\ub97c \ub0ae\ucd94\ub294 \uc555\ub825\uc73c\ub85c \uc791\uc6a9\ud55c\ub2e4.<\/p>\n
\ud2b8\ub808\uc774\ub354 \uc785\uc7a5\uc5d0\uc11c\ub294 \ubcc0\ub3d9\uc131\uc774 \uc800\ud3c9\uac00\ub410\uc744 \uac00\ub2a5\uc131\uc774 \uc788\ub2e4\uace0 \ubcf8\ub2e4. VIX \uc9c0\uc218(\ubcc0\ub3d9\uc131 \uc9c0\uc218\u00b7S&P500 \uc635\uc158 \uac00\uaca9\uc5d0 \ubc18\uc601\ub41c \ud5a5\ud6c4 \ubcc0\ub3d9\uc131 \uae30\ub300\uce58)\ub294 \ube44\uad50\uc801 \ub0ae\uc740 \uc218\uc900\uc774\uc5b4\uc11c, VIX \ucf5c\uc635\uc158(\ud2b9\uc815 \uac00\uaca9\uc5d0 \uc0b4 \uad8c\ub9ac)\uc774\ub098 \uc120\ubb3c(\ubbf8\ub798 \uc2dc\uc810\uc5d0 \uc815\ud574\uc9c4 \uac00\uaca9\uc73c\ub85c \uac70\ub798\ud558\ub294 \uacc4\uc57d)\uc744 \ud569\ub9ac\uc801 \ube44\uc6a9\uc73c\ub85c \ub9e4\uc218\ud560 \uae30\ud68c\uac00 \ub420 \uc218 \uc788\ub2e4\ub294 \uc8fc\uc7a5\uc774\ub2e4. \uc774\ub7f0 \ud3ec\uc9c0\uc158\uc740 \uc2dc\uc7a5 \uacf5\ud3ec\uac00 \uae09\uaca9\ud788 \ucee4\uc9c0\uac70\ub098 \uae09\ub77d(\ub300\uaddc\ubaa8 \ub9e4\ub3c4)\uc774 \ubc1c\uc0dd\ud560 \ub54c \uc774\uc775\uc744 \ubcfc \uc218 \uc788\ub2e4.<\/p>\n
\ub610\ud55c 2026\ub144 1\ubd84\uae30 \uc5f0\uc900 \uc790\ub8cc\ub294 \uac00\uacc4\uc758 \uc8fc\uc2dd \ube44\uc911\uc774 \uc21c\uc790\uc0b0\uc758 40%\ub97c \ub118\ub294 \uc5ed\uc0ac\uc801 \uace0\uc810 \uc218\uc900 \uadfc\ucc98\uc5d0 \uc788\uc74c\uc744 \ud655\uc778\ud588\ub2e4\uace0 \ud55c\ub2e4. \uc774\ub294 \uac1c\uc778\ud22c\uc790\uc790 \ub2e4\uc218\uac00 \uc774\ubbf8 \u2018\ud480\uc778(full invested\u00b7\ud604\uae08 \uc5ec\ub825\uc774 \uac70\uc758 \uc5c6\uc774 \ub300\ubd80\ubd84\uc744 \ud22c\uc790\ud55c \uc0c1\ud0dc)\u2019\uc5d0 \uac00\uae4c\uc6cc, \ud558\ub77d\uc7a5\uc5d0\uc11c\ub294 \ub9e4\ub3c4 \uc555\ub825\uc774 \uc5f0\uc1c4\uc801\uc73c\ub85c \ucee4\uc9c8 \uc218 \uc788\ub2e4\ub294 \uc758\ubbf8\ub85c \ud574\uc11d\ub41c\ub2e4. \uc774\uc5d0 \ub530\ub77c S&P500(SPX)\uc774\ub098 \ub098\uc2a4\ub2e5100(QQQ) \uac19\uc740 \uad11\ubc94\uc704\ud55c \uc9c0\uc218\uc5d0 \ub300\ud574 \ub9cc\uae30\uac00 \uae34 \ud48b\uc635\uc158(\ud2b9\uc815 \uac00\uaca9\uc5d0 \ud314 \uad8c\ub9ac)\uc744 \ub9e4\uc218\ud558\ub294 \uc804\ub7b5\uc774 \ud3ec\ud2b8\ud3f4\ub9ac\uc624 \ubcf4\ud5d8(\ud558\ub77d \uc704\ud5d8\uc744 \uc904\uc774\uae30 \uc704\ud55c \ud5e4\uc9c0) \ub610\ub294 \uc9c1\uc811\uc801\uc778 \ud558\ub77d \ubca0\ud305\uc774 \ub420 \uc218 \uc788\ub2e4\uace0 \uc81c\uc2dc\ud55c\ub2e4.<\/p>\n
\ud2b9\uc815 AI \uc885\ubaa9\uc5d0 \ub300\ud55c \uacfc\uc5f4\ub3c4 \ub354 \uad6c\uccb4\uc801\uc778 \uc804\ub7b5 \ub300\uc0c1\uc73c\ub85c \uac70\ub860\ub41c\ub2e4. \uc77c\ubd80 AI \uc120\ub3c4 \uae30\uc5c5\uc740 \uc2e4\uc801\uc774 \uacac\uc870\ud558\uc9c0\ub9cc, \uc774\uc775\uc774 \uc5c6\ub294 \uc18c\ud615 \uae30\uc5c5\ub4e4 \uc0c1\ub2f9\uc218\ub294 \uc21c\uc218\ud55c \uae30\ub300\uac10(\ud22c\uae30\uc801 \uae30\ub300)\ub9cc\uc73c\ub85c \uae30\uc5c5\uac00\uce58\uac00 \uae09\ub4f1\ud588\uc73c\uba70 2025\ub144 \ub9d0\uacfc \ube44\uc2b7\ud55c \uc591\uc0c1\uc774 \ub098\ud0c0\ub0ac\ub2e4\ub294 \uc8fc\uc7a5\uc774\ub2e4. \uc774 \uc139\ud130\uc5d0\uc11c \uac00\uc7a5 \uace0\ud3c9\uac00\ub41c \uc885\ubaa9\uc5d0 \ub300\ud574 \ud48b \ub9e4\uc218 \ub610\ub294 \ud48b \uc2a4\ud504\ub808\ub4dc(\ud48b\uc635\uc158\uc744 \ub3d9\uc2dc\uc5d0 \uc0ac\uace0\ud314\uc544 \ube44\uc6a9\uacfc \uc190\uc775\uad6c\uc870\ub97c \uc870\uc815\ud558\ub294 \uc804\ub7b5) \uac19\uc740 \ud558\ub77d \ud3ec\uc9c0\uc158\uc744 \uad6c\ucd95\ud558\ub294 \uac83\uc774 \uc870\uc815\uc7a5(\uac00\uaca9\uc774 \uacfc\uc5f4 \ud6c4 \ub418\ub3cc\ub9ac\ub294 \uad6c\uac04)\uc5d0\uc11c \uae30\ud68c\ub97c \uc7a1\ub294 \ubc29\ubc95\uc774 \ub420 \uc218 \uc788\ub2e4\uace0 \uc124\uba85\ud55c\ub2e4.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
\uc0ac\uc0c1 \ucd5c\uace0\uce58 \uadfc\ucc98 \ubbf8 \uc99d\uc2dc, \uc911\ub3d9 \ub9ac\uc2a4\ud06c\uc5d0\ub3c4 \u2018\uacfc\uc5f4 \uacbd\uace0\ub4f1\u2019. \ubc84\ud54f\uc9c0\ud45c 185%\u00b7\uc2e4\ub7ecPER 35\ub85c \ub2f7\ucef4\uae09 \uace0\ud3c9\uac00 \uc2e0\ud638, CPI 3.1%\ub85c \uae08\ub9ac \uc7a5\uae30\ud654\u2026VIX\u00b7\ud48b\uc635\uc158 \ud5e4\uc9c0 \ubd80\uac01.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-45524","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/45524","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=45524"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/45524\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=45524"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=45524"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=45524"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}