{"id":45492,"date":"2026-04-24T21:55:00","date_gmt":"2026-04-24T21:55:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr\/uncategorized\/%eb%85%b8%eb%ac%b4%eb%9d%bc-%ec%98%81%eb%9e%80%ec%9d%80%ed%96%89-%ec%97%90%eb%84%88%ec%a7%80-%ec%9a%b0%eb%a0%a4%ec%97%90%eb%8f%84-%ea%b8%88%eb%a6%ac-3-75-%eb%8f%99%ea%b2%b0-%ec%a0%84\/"},"modified":"2026-04-24T21:55:00","modified_gmt":"2026-04-24T21:55:00","slug":"%eb%85%b8%eb%ac%b4%eb%9d%bc-%ec%98%81%eb%9e%80%ec%9d%80%ed%96%89-%ec%97%90%eb%84%88%ec%a7%80-%ec%9a%b0%eb%a0%a4%ec%97%90%eb%8f%84-%ea%b8%88%eb%a6%ac-3-75-%eb%8f%99%ea%b2%b0-%ec%a0%84","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/live-updates\/%eb%85%b8%eb%ac%b4%eb%9d%bc-%ec%98%81%eb%9e%80%ec%9d%80%ed%96%89-%ec%97%90%eb%84%88%ec%a7%80-%ec%9a%b0%eb%a0%a4%ec%97%90%eb%8f%84-%ea%b8%88%eb%a6%ac-3-75-%eb%8f%99%ea%b2%b0-%ec%a0%84\/","title":{"rendered":"\ub178\ubb34\ub77c \u201c\uc601\ub780\uc740\ud589, \uc5d0\ub108\uc9c0 \uc6b0\ub824\uc5d0\ub3c4 \uae08\ub9ac 3.75% \ub3d9\uacb0 \uc804\ub9dd\u201d\u2026\ud544 \ub2e8\ub3c5 \ubc18\ub300 8\ub3001"},"content":{"rendered":"

\ub178\ubb34\ub77c\ub294 \ub2e4\uc74c \uc8fc \ud1b5\ud654\uc815\ucc45\uc704\uc6d0\ud68c(MPC) \ud68c\uc758\uc5d0\uc11c \uc601\ub780\uc740\ud589(BoE)\uc774 \uae30\uc900\uae08\ub9ac(Bank Rate)\ub97c 3.75%\ub85c \ub3d9\uacb0\ud560 \uac83\uc73c\ub85c \uc804\ub9dd\ud588\ub2e4. \ud45c\uacb0\uc740 \ub3d9\uacb0 8\uba85, \uc778\uc0c1 1\uba85(\ud734 \ud544 \uc704\uc6d0 \uc778\uc0c1\ud45c)\uc73c\ub85c \uc608\uc0c1\ud588\ub2e4.<\/p>\n

\uae08\ub9ac \uacb0\uc815\uacfc \uc0c8 \uacbd\uc81c\uc804\ub9dd\uc740 \ub2e4\uc74c \uc8fc \ubaa9\uc694\uc77c \uc815\uc624\uc5d0 \ubc1c\ud45c\ub41c\ub2e4. \ub178\ubb34\ub77c\ub294 \ubb3c\uac00(\uc778\ud50c\ub808\uc774\uc158) \uc804\ub9dd\uc740 \ub354 \ub192\uc544\uc9c0\uace0, \uc131\uc7a5 \uc804\ub9dd\uc740 \uc18c\ud3ed \uc57d\ud574\uc9c0\ub294 \ub3d9\uc2dc\uc5d0 \uc804\ub9dd\uacfc \ud568\uaed8 \ubcf4\ub2e4 \uad6c\uccb4\uc801\uc778 \ud5a5\ud6c4 \uc815\ucc45 \uc2e0\ud638(\uac00\uc774\ub358\uc2a4)\uac00 \uc81c\uc2dc\ub420 \uac83\uc73c\ub85c \ub0b4\ub2e4\ubd24\ub2e4.<\/p>\n

Nomura View On The Upcoming Decision<\/h3>\n

\ub178\ubb34\ub77c\ub294 2027\ub144 \ub9d0\uae4c\uc9c0 \uc815\ucc45\uae08\ub9ac\uac00 \ubcc0\ud558\uc9c0 \uc54a\uc744 \uac83\uc73c\ub85c \ubcf8\ub2e4. \ub2e4\ub9cc \uc704\ud5d8\uc774 \ud55c\ucabd\uc73c\ub85c \uce58\uc6b0\uccd0 \uc788\uc5b4, \ub2e8\uae30\uc801\uc73c\ub85c\ub294 \uae08\ub9ac \uc778\uc0c1 \uac00\ub2a5\uc131\uc774 \uc788\uace0 \uc774\ud6c4\uc5d0\ub294 \uae08\ub9ac \uc778\ud558 \uac00\ub2a5\uc131\uc774 \uc788\ub2e4\uace0 \uc9c0\uc801\ud588\ub2e4.<\/p>\n

\uae08\uc735\uc2dc\uc7a5\uc740 \uc5f0\ub9d0\uae4c\uc9c0 2\ud68c\uac00 \ub118\ub294 \ucd94\uac00 \uae08\ub9ac \uc778\uc0c1\uc744 \ubc18\uc601\ud558\uace0 \uc788\ub2e4. \uadf8\ub7ec\ub098 4\uc6d4 30\uc77c \uc778\uc0c1 \uac00\ub2a5\uc131\uc740 2~3bp \uc218\uc900\uc758 \ub9e4\uc6b0 \ub0ae\uc740 \uc704\ud5d8\uc73c\ub85c\ub9cc \uac00\uaca9\uc5d0 \ubc18\uc601\ub3fc \uc788\ub2e4. (bp\ub294 \u2018\ubca0\uc774\uc2dc\uc2a4 \ud3ec\uc778\ud2b8\u2019\ub85c, \uae08\ub9ac 0.01%\ud3ec\uc778\ud2b8\ub97c \ub73b\ud558\ub294 \ub2e8\uc704\ub2e4.)<\/p>\n

\uc774 \uae00\uc740 \uc778\uacf5\uc9c0\ub2a5(AI, \uc0ac\ub78c\ucc98\ub7fc \uae00\uc744 \uc0dd\uc131\ud558\ub294 \ucef4\ud4e8\ud130 \uae30\uc220) \ub3c4\uad6c\uc758 \ub3c4\uc6c0\uc744 \ubc1b\uc544 \uc791\uc131\ub410\uace0 \ud3b8\uc9d1\uc790\uc758 \uac80\ud1a0\ub97c \uac70\ucce4\ub2e4\uace0 \ubc1d\ud614\ub2e4.<\/p>\n

\uc601\ub780\uc740\ud589\uc758 \ub2e4\uc74c \ud68c\uc758\uac00 \ub2e4\uac00\uc624\ub294 \uac00\uc6b4\ub370, \uc815\ucc45\uae08\ub9ac\ub97c \ud604 \uc218\uc900\uc778 4.25%\ub85c \ub3d9\uacb0\ud560 \uac83\uc73c\ub85c \uc608\uc0c1\ud55c\ub2e4. \uc2dc\uc7a5\uc740 \ub2e4\uc2dc \ucd94\uac00 \uae34\ucd95(\uae08\ub9ac \uc778\uc0c1 \ub4f1\uc73c\ub85c \ub3c8\uc758 \ud750\ub984\uc744 \uc870\uc774\ub294 \uc815\ucc45)\uc744 \ubc18\uc601\ud558\uace0 \uc788\uc9c0\ub9cc, \ub2e8\uae30\uac04\uc5d0 \ud604\uc2e4\ud654\ub420 \uac00\ub2a5\uc131\uc740 \ub0ae\ub2e4\uace0 \ubcf8\ub2e4. \uc774\uc5d0 \ub530\ub77c \uc2dc\uc7a5\uc774 \ubc18\uc601\ud55c \uae08\ub9ac \uacbd\ub85c\uc640 \uc911\uc559\uc740\ud589\uc758 \uc2e4\uc81c \ud589\ub3d9 \uc0ac\uc774\uc5d0 \uad34\ub9ac\uac00 \uc0dd\uae30\uace0 \uc788\ub2e4.<\/p>\n

Trading Implications For Rates Volatility<\/h3>\n

2025\ub144 \ubd04\uc5d0\ub3c4 \ube44\uc2b7\ud55c \uc0c1\ud669\uc774 \uc788\uc5c8\ub2e4. \ub2f9\uc2dc \uae30\uc900\uae08\ub9ac\ub294 3.75%\uc600\uc9c0\ub9cc \uc2dc\uc7a5\uc740 \uc5f0\ub9d0\uae4c\uc9c0 \uc5ec\ub7ec \ucc28\ub840 \uc778\uc0c1\uc744 \ubc18\uc601\ud588\ub2e4. \uadf8\ub54c MPC\ub294 \ub3d9\uacb0\uc744 \uc720\uc9c0\ud558\uba70 \uacbd\uae30(\uacbd\uc81c\ud65c\ub3d9)\uac00 \uc57d\ud55c \uc0c1\ud669\uc5d0\uc11c \uae08\ub9ac\ub97c \uc62c\ub9ac\ub294 \ub370 \uc18c\uadf9\uc801\uc784\uc744 \ubd84\uba85\ud788 \ud588\ub2e4. \uc774\ub294 \uc601\ub780\uc740\ud589\uc774 \uc2dc\uc7a5\uc758 \uacf5\uaca9\uc801\uc778 \uae30\ub300\uc640 \ub2e4\ub978 \uacb0\uc815\uc744 \ub0b4\ub9ac\ub294 \ub370 \ubd80\ub2f4\uc774 \ud06c\uc9c0 \uc54a\ub2e4\ub294 \uc810\uc744 \ubcf4\uc5ec\uc900\ub2e4.<\/p>\n

\ucd5c\uadfc \uc9c0\ud45c\ub3c4 \ub3d9\uacb0\uc744 \ub4b7\ubc1b\uce68\ud55c\ub2e4. \uc601\uad6d \ud1b5\uacc4\uccad(ONS)\uc758 \ucd5c\uc2e0 \uc218\uce58\uc5d0\uc11c \uc804\uccb4 \ubb3c\uac00\uc0c1\uc2b9\ub960(\ud5e4\ub4dc\ub77c\uc778 \uc778\ud50c\ub808\uc774\uc158: \uc5d0\ub108\uc9c0\u00b7\uc2dd\ub8cc\ud488 \ub4f1\uc744 \ud3ec\ud568\ud55c \uc804\uccb4 \ubb3c\uac00)\uc740 2.8%\ub85c \ub0b4\ub824\uc654\uc9c0\ub9cc, \uadfc\uc6d0 \ubb3c\uac00(\ucf54\uc5b4 \uc778\ud50c\ub808\uc774\uc158: \uac00\uaca9 \ubcc0\ub3d9\uc774 \ud070 \ud56d\ubaa9\uc744 \uc81c\uc678\ud574 \ucd94\uc138\ub97c \ubcf4\ub294 \ubb3c\uac00)\ub294 \ubaa9\ud45c\ub97c \uc6c3\ub3c4\ub294 \uc218\uc900\uc774 \uc774\uc5b4\uc9c0\uace0 \uc788\ub2e4. \ub3d9\uc2dc\uc5d0 1\ubd84\uae30 \uad6d\ub0b4\ucd1d\uc0dd\uc0b0(GDP, \ud55c \ub098\ub77c\uc5d0\uc11c \uc77c\uc815 \uae30\uac04 \uc0dd\uc0b0\ub41c \uc7ac\ud654\u00b7\uc11c\ube44\uc2a4\uc758 \ucd1d\ud569) \uc131\uc7a5\ub960\uc740 0.2%\ub85c \ubd80\uc9c4\ud574, \uacbd\uc81c\uac00 \ub354 \ub192\uc740 \ub300\ucd9c\uae08\ub9ac(\ucc28\uc785 \ube44\uc6a9)\ub97c \uc27d\uac8c \uac10\ub2f9\ud558\uae30 \uc5b4\ub835\ub2e4\ub294 \uc2dc\uac01\uc744 \uac15\ud654\ud55c\ub2e4. \ubb3c\uac00\uac00 \uc798 \ub0b4\ub824\uc624\uc9c0 \uc54a\ub294 \uc0c1\ud669\uacfc \uc131\uc7a5 \uc815\uccb4\uac00 \uacb9\uce58\uba74\uc11c MPC\ub294 \uc5b4\ub824\uc6b4 \uc120\ud0dd\uc744 \uac15\uc694\ubc1b\uace0 \uc788\ub2e4.<\/p>\n

\uc774\ub294 \uae08\ub9ac \uc2dc\uc7a5\uc5d0\uc11c \ub2e8\uae30 \ubcc0\ub3d9\uc131(\uac00\uaca9\uc774 \ud754\ub4e4\ub9ac\ub294 \uc815\ub3c4)\uc744 \ud30c\ub294 \uc804\ub7b5\uc774 \uc720\ub9ac\ud560 \uc218 \uc788\uc74c\uc744 \uc2dc\uc0ac\ud55c\ub2e4. \uc601\ub780\uc740\ud589\uc774 \ub3d9\uacb0\ud560 \uac00\ub2a5\uc131\uc774 \ub192\uc740 \ub9cc\ud07c, \ub2e8\uae30 SONIA \uc120\ubb3c \uc635\uc158(SONIA: \uc601\uad6d \ud30c\uc6b4\ub4dc \ubb34\ub2f4\ubcf4 \uc775\uc77c\uae08\ub9ac\uc778 \ub2e8\uae30 \uae30\uc900\uae08\ub9ac, \uc120\ubb3c: \ubbf8\ub798 \uae08\ub9ac\ub97c \ubbf8\ub9ac \uc0ac\uace0\ud30c\ub294 \uacc4\uc57d, \uc635\uc158: \uc815\ud574\uc9c4 \uc870\uac74\uc73c\ub85c \uc0b4 \uad8c\ub9ac\u00b7\ud314 \uad8c\ub9ac\ub97c \uc0ac\uace0\ud30c\ub294 \uc0c1\ud488)\uc758 \uc635\uc158 \uac00\uaca9\uc774 \ube44\uc2f8 \ubcf4\uc778\ub2e4\ub294 \ud310\ub2e8\uc774\ub2e4. \uc815\ucc45\uc774 \uc6c0\uc9c1\uc774\uc9c0 \uc54a\uc744 \ub54c \uc774\uc775\uc744 \ubcf4\ub294 \ud3ec\uc9c0\uc158, \uc608\ub97c \ub4e4\uc5b4 \uc20f \uc2a4\ud2b8\ub798\ub4e4(short straddle: \uac19\uc740 \ub9cc\uae30\u00b7\uac19\uc740 \ud589\uc0ac\uac00\uc758 \ucf5c\uc635\uc158\uacfc \ud48b\uc635\uc158\uc744 \ub3d9\uc2dc\uc5d0 \ub9e4\ub3c4\ud574 \ubcc0\ub3d9\uc131\uc774 \uc791\uc744\uc218\ub85d \uc774\uc775\uc774 \ub098\ub294 \uc804\ub7b5)\uc774 \ud5a5\ud6c4 \uba87 \uc8fc \ub3d9\uc548 \uc720\ud6a8\ud560 \uc218 \uc788\ub2e4.<\/p>\n

\ub2e4\ub9cc \uc704\ud5d8\uc740 \uade0\ud615\uc801\uc774\uc9c0 \uc54a\uace0, \ub2e8\uae30\uc801\uc73c\ub85c\ub294 \u2018\ub9e4\ud30c\uc801\u2019(hawkish: \ubb3c\uac00 \uc5b5\uc81c\ub97c \uc704\ud574 \uae08\ub9ac \uc778\uc0c1\uc5d0 \uc801\uadf9\uc801\uc778 \uc131\ud5a5) \uae5c\uc9dd \uacb0\uc815 \uac00\ub2a5\uc131\uc774, \uc774\ud6c4\uc5d0\ub294 \uae08\ub9ac \uc778\ud558 \uac00\ub2a5\uc131\uc774 \ub354 \ud06c\ub2e4\ub294 \ucabd\uc73c\ub85c \uae30\uc6b8\uc5b4 \uc788\ub2e4. \uc774\ub7f0 \ube44\ub300\uce6d\uc131 \ub54c\ubb38\uc5d0 \uae08\ub9ac \uc120\ubb3c\uc758 \uc678\uac00\uaca9(out-of-the-money: \ud604\uc7ac \uac00\uaca9\uc5d0\uc11c \ubc14\ub85c \uc774\uc775\uc774 \ub098\uc9c0 \uc54a\ub294 \ud589\uc0ac\uac00\uc758 \uc635\uc158) \ucf5c\uc635\uc158(\uae08\ub9ac\uac00 \uc624\ub97c \ub54c \uc720\ub9ac\ud55c \u2018\uc0b4 \uad8c\ub9ac\u2019)\uc744 \ub0ae\uc740 \ube44\uc6a9\uc73c\ub85c \ubcf4\uc720\ud558\ub294 \uac83\uc774 \ud765\ubbf8\ub85c\uc6b4 \ud5e4\uc9c0(hedge: \ubd88\ub9ac\ud55c \uc0c1\ud669\uc5d0 \ub300\ube44\ud574 \uc704\ud5d8\uc744 \uc904\uc774\ub294 \ubc29\ubc95)\uac00 \ub420 \uc218 \uc788\ub2e4. \uc774\ub294 2\ucc28 \ubb3c\uac00 \uc0c1\uc2b9(\uc784\uae08\u00b7\uc11c\ube44\uc2a4 \uac00\uaca9 \ub4f1\uc73c\ub85c \ubb3c\uac00 \uc555\ub825\uc774 \ub2e4\uc2dc \ubc88\uc9c0\ub294 \ud604\uc0c1) \uc704\ud5d8\uc774 \uc9c0\uc18d\ub420 \uacbd\uc6b0\ub97c \ub300\ube44\ud574 \uc601\ub780\uc740\ud589\uc774 \ud55c \ucc28\ub840 \ubcf4\ud5d8\uc131 \uc778\uc0c1\uc744 \ud560 \uac00\ub2a5\uc131\uc5d0 \ub300\ud55c \ubc29\uc5b4\uac00 \ub41c\ub2e4.<\/p>\n

\uc601\ub780\uc740\ud589\uc774 \ucd94\uac00\ub85c \ud55c \ubc88 \ub354 \uc778\uc0c1\ud574\uc57c \ud55c\ub2e4\uace0 \ud310\ub2e8\ud55c\ub2e4\uba74, \uc774\ud6c4 \ub418\ub3cc\ub824\uc57c \ud560 \uac00\ub2a5\uc131\uc774 \ud070 \uc815\ucc45 \uc870\uce58\uac00 \ub420 \uc218 \uc788\ub2e4\uace0 \ubcf8\ub2e4. 2026\ub144 \ud6c4\ubc18 \ub610\ub294 2027\ub144 \ucd08\uc5d0 \uc815\ucc45 \ubc29\ud5a5 \uc804\ud658(\ud53c\ubc97)\uc774 \ub098\ud0c0\ub0a0 \uc218 \uc788\ub2e4\ub294 \uc810\uc740 \uc7a5\uae30 \ubcc0\ub3d9\uc131 \uc0c1\uc2b9\uc5d0 \uc720\ub9ac\ud55c \ud3ec\uc9c0\uc158\uc744 \uc9c0\uc9c0\ud55c\ub2e4. \uc774\ub294 \uc635\uc158 \uc2dc\uc7a5\uc758 \uce98\ub9b0\ub354 \uc2a4\ud504\ub808\ub4dc(calendar spread: \ub9cc\uae30\uac00 \ub2e4\ub978 \uc635\uc158\uc744 \ub3d9\uc2dc\uc5d0 \ub9e4\uc218\u00b7\ub9e4\ub3c4\ud574 \ub9cc\uae30\ubcc4 \uac00\uaca9 \ucc28\uc774\uc5d0 \ubca0\ud305\ud558\ub294 \uc804\ub7b5)\ub85c \uad6c\ud604\ud560 \uc218 \uc788\ub2e4.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

\u201c\ub3d9\uacb0 8\ub3001\u201d\uc5d0 \uc2dc\uc7a5 \uae34\ucd95 \ubca0\ud305\uc740 \uacfc\uc5f4? \ub178\ubb34\ub77c, BoE \uae08\ub9ac 3.75% \uc720\uc9c0\u00b7\ubb3c\uac00 \uc0c1\ud5a5\u00b7\uc131\uc7a5 \ud558\ud5a5 \uc804\ub9dd. \ub2e8\uae30 \ubcc0\ub3d9\uc131 \ub9e4\ub3c4 \uc720\ub9ac, \ub9e4\ud30c \uae5c\uc9dd\u00b7\ud5a5\ud6c4 \uc778\ud558 \ud5e4\uc9c0 \ud544\uc694.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-45492","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/45492","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=45492"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/45492\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=45492"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=45492"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=45492"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}