{"id":45482,"date":"2026-04-24T19:51:58","date_gmt":"2026-04-24T19:51:58","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr\/uncategorized\/td%ec%a6%9d%ea%b6%8c-%ec%9d%b4%ec%bd%94%eb%85%b8%eb%af%b8%ec%8a%a4%ed%8a%b8%eb%93%a4%ec%9d%80-%ec%98%81%ea%b5%ad-%ea%b2%bd%ec%a0%9c%ec%a7%80%ed%91%9c%ea%b0%80-%ea%b2%ac%ec%a1%b0%ed%95%9c-%ed%9d%90\/"},"modified":"2026-04-24T19:51:58","modified_gmt":"2026-04-24T19:51:58","slug":"td%ec%a6%9d%ea%b6%8c-%ec%9d%b4%ec%bd%94%eb%85%b8%eb%af%b8%ec%8a%a4%ed%8a%b8%eb%93%a4%ec%9d%80-%ec%98%81%ea%b5%ad-%ea%b2%bd%ec%a0%9c%ec%a7%80%ed%91%9c%ea%b0%80-%ea%b2%ac%ec%a1%b0%ed%95%9c-%ed%9d%90","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/live-updates\/td%ec%a6%9d%ea%b6%8c-%ec%9d%b4%ec%bd%94%eb%85%b8%eb%af%b8%ec%8a%a4%ed%8a%b8%eb%93%a4%ec%9d%80-%ec%98%81%ea%b5%ad-%ea%b2%bd%ec%a0%9c%ec%a7%80%ed%91%9c%ea%b0%80-%ea%b2%ac%ec%a1%b0%ed%95%9c-%ed%9d%90\/","title":{"rendered":"TD\uc99d\uad8c \uc774\ucf54\ub178\ubbf8\uc2a4\ud2b8\ub4e4\uc740 \uc601\uad6d \uacbd\uc81c\uc9c0\ud45c\uac00 \uacac\uc870\ud55c \ud750\ub984\uc744 \uc774\uc5b4\uac00\ub294 \uac00\uc6b4\ub370 \uc601\ub780\uc740\ud589\uc774 \uae30\uc900\uae08\ub9ac\ub97c 3.75%\ub85c \ub9cc\uc7a5\uc77c\uce58 \ub3d9\uacb0\ud560 \uac83\uc73c\ub85c \uc804\ub9dd\ud588\ub2e4"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>TD\uc99d\uad8c(TD Securities) \uc774\ucf54\ub178\ubbf8\uc2a4\ud2b8\ub4e4\uc740 \uc601\ub780\uc740\ud589(BoE)\uc774 \uae30\uc900\uae08\ub9ac(Bank Rate)\ub97c 3.75%\ub85c \ub3d9\uacb0\ud558\uace0, \uc704\uc6d0\ub4e4\uc774 \ub9cc\uc7a5\uc77c\uce58\ub85c \uacb0\uc815\ud560 \uac83\uc73c\ub85c \uc608\uc0c1\ud588\ub2e4. \uc774\ub4e4\uc740 \uc5d0\ub108\uc9c0 \uac00\uaca9\uc744 \ub118\uc5b4 \uc804\uc7c1(\uac08\ub4f1)\uc774 \uad6d\ub0b4 \ubb3c\uac00\uc5d0 \uc5b4\ub5a4 \uc601\ud5a5\uc744 \ubbf8\uce58\ub294\uc9c0 \ud655\uc778\ud558\uae30 \uc704\ud574 \u2018\uad00\ub9dd(wait-and-see, \uc0c1\ud669\uc744 \uc9c0\ucf1c\ubcf8 \ub4a4 \ub300\uc751)\u2019 \uae30\uc870\uac00 \uc774\uc5b4\uc9c8 \uac83\uc73c\ub85c \ub0b4\ub2e4\ubd24\ub2e4.<\/p>\n<p>\uc815\ucc45 \uc131\uba85(\ud1b5\ud654\uc815\ucc45 \uacb0\uc815\ubb38) \ubcc0\uacbd\uc740 \uc81c\ud55c\uc801\uc77c \uc804\ub9dd\uc774\ub2e4. \ub2e4\ub9cc \ub2e8\uae30\uc801\uc73c\ub85c \uc18c\ube44\uc790\ubb3c\uac00\uc9c0\uc218(CPI, \uac00\uacc4\uac00 \uad6c\uc785\ud558\ub294 \uc0c1\ud488\u00b7\uc11c\ube44\uc2a4 \uac00\uaca9 \ubcc0\ud654\ub97c \ub098\ud0c0\ub0b4\ub294 \ubb3c\uac00 \uc9c0\ud45c) \uc0c1\uc2b9\ub960\uc774 \ub354 \ub192\uc544\uc9c8 \uc218 \uc788\ub2e4\ub294 \ubb38\uad6c\uac00 \ud3ec\ud568\ub420 \uc218 \uc788\ub2e4\uace0 \ubd24\ub2e4. \ud1b5\ud654\uc815\ucc45\uc704\uc6d0\ud68c(MPC, \uae30\uc900\uae08\ub9ac\ub97c \uacb0\uc815\ud558\ub294 \uc704\uc6d0\ud68c)\ub294 \ubb3c\uac00\uac00 \uc784\uae08\u00b7\uc11c\ube44\uc2a4 \uac00\uaca9 \ub4f1\uc73c\ub85c \uc7ac\ucc28 \ubc88\uc9c0\ub294 \u20182\ucc28 \ud30c\uae09\ud6a8\uacfc(second-round effects, \ucd08\uae30 \ucda9\uaca9\uc774 \ub2e4\ub978 \uac00\uaca9\u00b7\uc784\uae08\uc73c\ub85c \ud655\uc0b0\ub418\ub294 \ud604\uc0c1)\u2019 \uc704\ud5d8\uc774 \ucee4\uc84c\ub2e4\uace0 \uc5b8\uae09\ud560 \uc218 \uc788\ub2e4\ub294 \uc608\uc0c1\ub3c4 \uc81c\uc2dc\ud588\ub2e4.<\/p>\n<h3>Policy Outlook And Projections<\/h3>\n<p>\uc774\ucf54\ub178\ubbf8\uc2a4\ud2b8\ub4e4\uc740 \uc601\ub780\uc740\ud589\uc758 \uc804\ub9dd\uce58\uac00 \ud5a5\ud6c4 1~2\ub144(Year 1, Year 2) \ubb3c\uac00\ub97c \ub354 \ub192\uac8c \uc81c\uc2dc\ud560 \uac83\uc73c\ub85c \uc608\uc0c1\ud588\ub2e4. \uad6d\ub0b4\ucd1d\uc0dd\uc0b0(GDP, \ud55c \ub098\ub77c\uac00 \uc77c\uc815 \uae30\uac04 \uc0dd\uc0b0\ud55c \uc7ac\ud654\u00b7\uc11c\ube44\uc2a4\uc758 \ucd1d\ud569) \uc131\uc7a5\ub960\uc740 \ucd08\ubc18\uc5d0\ub294 \uc18c\ud3ed \ub354 \uac15\ud558\uac8c \ub098\uc624\uc9c0\ub9cc, \uc774\ud6c4\uc5d0\ub294 \ub354 \uc57d\ud574\uc9c8 \uac83\uc73c\ub85c \ubd24\ub2e4.<\/p>\n<p>\uc774\ub4e4\uc740 2\ub144\ucc28 \ubb3c\uac00 \uc0c1\uc2b9\ub960\uc774 \uc774\uc804 \uc804\ub9dd\uce58 1.8%\ubcf4\ub2e4 \ub192\uc740 2%\ub97c \uc18c\ud3ed \uc6c3\ub3cc \uac83\uc73c\ub85c \uc608\uc0c1\ud588\ub2e4. \ub610\ud55c 3\ub144\ucc28 \ubb3c\uac00\uac00 2\uc6d4 \uc804\ub9dd(2.0%)\uc744 \uc0c1\ud68c\ud560 \uc704\ud5d8\ub3c4 \uc788\ub2e4\uace0 \ud3c9\uac00\ud588\ub2e4.<\/p>\n<p>\uc774\ub4e4\uc740 MPC\uac00 \uc804\ub9dd\uc5d0\uc11c \uc2dc\ub098\ub9ac\uc624 \ubd84\uc11d(scenario analysis, \uc5ec\ub7ec \uac00\uc815\uc744 \ub193\uace0 \uacb0\uacfc\ub97c \ube44\uad50\ud558\ub294 \ubd84\uc11d)\uc744 \ub354 \uac15\uc870\ud560 \uac83\uc73c\ub85c \ub0b4\ub2e4\ubd24\ub2e4. \uac00\ub2a5\ud55c \uc2dc\ub098\ub9ac\uc624 \uc911 \ud558\ub098\ub294 \uc5d0\ub108\uc9c0 \uac00\uaca9 \uc555\ub825\uc774 \ub354 \uc2ec\ud574\uc9c0\ub294 \uacbd\uc6b0\ub85c, \ubb3c\uac00 \uc0c1\uc2b9\ub960\uc740 \ub354 \ub192\uc544\uc9c0\uace0 GDP \uc131\uc7a5\ub960\uc740 \ub354 \uc57d\ud574\uc9c0\ub294 \uadf8\ub9bc\uc774\ub2e4.<\/p>\n<h3>Trading Implications For Rates Markets<\/h3>\n<p>\uc9c0\ub09c\ud574 \uc81c\uae30\ub410\ub358 \u2018\ubb3c\uac00\uac00 \ubaa9\ud45c\ub97c \uc6c3\ub3cc \uc218 \uc788\ub2e4\u2019\ub294 \uc6b0\ub824\ub294 \uc774\ud6c4\uc758 \uacf5\uaca9\uc801\uc778 \uae34\ucd95(\uae08\ub9ac \uc778\uc0c1 \ub4f1\uc73c\ub85c \uc218\uc694\ub97c \ub20c\ub7ec \ubb3c\uac00\ub97c \uc548\uc815\uc2dc\ud0a4\ub294 \uc815\ucc45)\uc5d0\ub3c4 \ubd88\uad6c\ud558\uace0 \uc0c1\ub2f9 \ubd80\ubd84 \ud604\uc2e4\ud654\ub410\ub2e4. \uc601\uad6d \ud1b5\uacc4\uccad(ONS) \ucd5c\uc2e0 \uc790\ub8cc\uc5d0 \ub530\ub974\uba74 \uc601\uad6d CPI\ub294 2.4%\ub85c, \ubaa9\ud45c\uce58 2%\ub97c \uc5ec\uc804\ud788 \uc0c1\ud68c\ud55c\ub2e4. \uc774\ub7ec\ud55c \ubb3c\uac00\uc758 \u2018\ub048\uc801\ud568(sticky inflation, \uc27d\uac8c \ub0b4\ub824\uc624\uc9c0 \uc54a\ub294 \ubb3c\uac00)\u2019\uc740 \uc804\ub9dd\ubcf4\ub2e4 \ud6e8\uc52c \uc57d\ud55c \uc131\uc7a5 \ud658\uacbd\uacfc \ud568\uaed8 \ud3c9\uac00\ub418\uace0 \uc788\ub2e4. \uc601\uad6d \uacbd\uc81c\ub294 \ucd5c\uadfc 2\uac1c \ubd84\uae30 \ub3d9\uc548 \uac70\uc758 \uc131\uc7a5\ud558\uc9c0 \ubabb\ud588\ub2e4.<\/p>\n<p>\uc774\ub7f0 \ud658\uacbd\uc5d0\uc11c\ub294 \ud30c\uc0dd\uc0c1\ud488(\uae30\ucd08\uc790\uc0b0 \uac00\uaca9\uc5d0 \ub530\ub77c \uac00\uce58\uac00 \ubcc0\ud558\ub294 \uae08\uc735\uc0c1\ud488) \ud2b8\ub808\uc774\ub354\ub4e4\uc774 \ud1b5\ud654 \uc644\ud654(\uae08\ub9ac \uc778\ud558 \ub4f1\uc73c\ub85c \uacbd\uae30\ub97c \ubd80\uc591\ud558\ub294 \uc815\ucc45)\uc758 \uc2dc\uc810\uacfc \uc18d\ub3c4\uc5d0 \uc8fc\ubaa9\ud560 \ud544\uc694\uac00 \uc788\ub2e4. \uc9c0\ub09c\ud574\uc5d0\ub294 \uae08\ub9ac \ub3d9\uacb0 \uc7a5\uae30\ud654 \ub610\ub294 \ucd94\uac00 \uc778\uc0c1\uc744 \uc2dc\uc7a5 \uac00\uaca9\uc5d0 \ubc18\uc601\ud558\ub294 \uac83\uc774 \ud575\uc2ec\uc774\uc5c8\uc9c0\ub9cc, \ud604\uc7ac SONIA \uc120\ubb3c \uc2dc\uc7a5\uc740(SONIA\ub294 \uc601\uad6d \ubb34\ub2f4\ubcf4 \uc775\uc77c \uae08\ub9ac\ub85c, \uae08\ub9ac \uc120\ubb3c\uc740 \ud5a5\ud6c4 \uae08\ub9ac \uc218\uc900\uc5d0 \ub300\ud55c \uc2dc\uc7a5 \uae30\ub300\ub97c \ubc18\uc601) \ud5a5\ud6c4 6\uac1c\uc6d4 \ub0b4 \uae08\ub9ac \uc778\ud558\uac00 \uc2dc\uc791\ub420 \uac00\ub2a5\uc131\uc744 \uc2dc\uc0ac\ud55c\ub2e4. \uc8fc\uc694 \uc804\ub7b5\uc740 \uc774\ub7ec\ud55c \u2018\uc815\ucc45 \uc804\ud658(pivot, \uae34\ucd95\uc5d0\uc11c \uc644\ud654\ub85c \ubc29\ud5a5 \uc804\ud658)\u2019\uc5d0 \ub300\ube44\ud558\ub294 \ud3ec\uc9c0\uc154\ub2dd\uc774\uba70, \uc2a4\uc651(\uae08\ub9ac \uc9c0\uae09 \ubc29\uc2dd \ub4f1\uc744 \uad50\ud658\ud558\ub294 \uac70\ub798)\uacfc \uc635\uc158(\uc815\ud574\uc9c4 \uac00\uaca9\uc5d0 \uc0b4 \uad8c\ub9ac\u00b7\ud314 \uad8c\ub9ac)\ub3c4 \uc62c\ud574 \ud558\ubc18\uae30 \uc8fc\uc694 MPC \ud68c\uc758 \uc77c\uc815\uc5d0 \ub9de\ucdb0 \uc124\uacc4\ub418\uace0 \uc788\ub2e4.<\/p>\n<p>\uc2dc\ub098\ub9ac\uc624 \ubd84\uc11d\uc758 \uc911\uc694\uc131\uc740 \uc5ec\uc804\ud788 \ud06c\uba70, \uc774\ub294 \ubcc0\ub3d9\uc131(volatility, \uac00\uaca9\uc774 \uc5bc\ub9c8\ub098 \ud06c\uac8c \ud754\ub4e4\ub9ac\ub294\uc9c0\uc758 \uc815\ub3c4) \uac70\ub798 \uae30\ud68c\ub97c \ub9cc\ub4e0\ub2e4. \ubb3c\uac00\ub294 \uc798 \ub0b4\ub824\uc624\uc9c0 \uc54a\ub294\ub370 GDP \uc131\uc7a5\uc740 \uac70\uc758 0%\uc5d0 \uac00\uae4c\uc6b4 \uc0c1\ubc18\ub41c \ub370\uc774\ud130\uac00 \uacf5\uc874\ud558\uba74\uc11c \ub2e8\uae30 \uae08\ub9ac \uc635\uc158\uc758 \ub0b4\uc7ac\ubcc0\ub3d9\uc131(implied volatility, \uc635\uc158 \uac00\uaca9\uc5d0 \ubc18\uc601\ub41c \uc2dc\uc7a5\uc758 \uc608\uc0c1 \ubcc0\ub3d9\uc131)\uc774 \ub192\uc740 \uc218\uc900\uc744 \uc720\uc9c0\ud558\uace0 \uc788\ub2e4. \uc774\ub294 \ud2b9\uc815 \ubc29\ud5a5\uc5d0 \ubca0\ud305\ud558\uae30\ubcf4\ub2e4, \uc5b4\ub290 \ucabd\uc774\ub4e0 \ud070 \ubcc0\ub3d9\uc774 \ub098\uc62c \ub54c \uc218\uc775\uc744 \ub178\ub9ac\ub294 \uc804\ub7b5\uc774 \ud5a5\ud6c4 \uba87 \uc8fc\uac04 \uc720\ub9ac\ud560 \uc218 \uc788\uc74c\uc744 \uc2dc\uc0ac\ud55c\ub2e4.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>\u201c\ub3d9\uacb0 \uc18d \uad00\ub9dd\u201d \uc601\ub780\uc740\ud589, \uae30\uc900\uae08\ub9ac 3.75% \ub9cc\uc7a5\uc77c\uce58 \uc720\uc9c0 \uc804\ub9dd. \uc804\uc7c1\ubc1c \ubb3c\uac00 2\ucc28 \ud30c\uae09 \uacbd\uacc4\ud558\uba70 \uc804\ub9dd\uce58 \uc0c1\ud5a5 \uac00\ub2a5. \uc2dc\uc7a5\uc740 6\uac1c\uc6d4 \ub0b4 \uc778\ud558\u00b7\ubcc0\ub3d9\uc131 \uac70\ub798 \uc8fc\ubaa9.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-45482","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/45482","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=45482"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/45482\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=45482"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=45482"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=45482"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}