{"id":45187,"date":"2026-04-21T23:20:35","date_gmt":"2026-04-21T23:20:35","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr\/uncategorized\/%ed%8a%b8%eb%9f%bc%ed%94%84%ec%9d%98-%ec%97%b0%ec%a4%80-%ec%9d%98%ec%9e%a5-%ec%a7%80%eb%aa%85%ec%9e%90-%ec%bc%80%eb%b9%88-%ec%9b%8c%ec%8b%9c-%ea%b0%9c%ed%98%81-%ed%95%84%ec%9a%94\/"},"modified":"2026-04-21T23:20:35","modified_gmt":"2026-04-21T23:20:35","slug":"%ed%8a%b8%eb%9f%bc%ed%94%84%ec%9d%98-%ec%97%b0%ec%a4%80-%ec%9d%98%ec%9e%a5-%ec%a7%80%eb%aa%85%ec%9e%90-%ec%bc%80%eb%b9%88-%ec%9b%8c%ec%8b%9c-%ea%b0%9c%ed%98%81-%ed%95%84%ec%9a%94","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/live-updates\/%ed%8a%b8%eb%9f%bc%ed%94%84%ec%9d%98-%ec%97%b0%ec%a4%80-%ec%9d%98%ec%9e%a5-%ec%a7%80%eb%aa%85%ec%9e%90-%ec%bc%80%eb%b9%88-%ec%9b%8c%ec%8b%9c-%ea%b0%9c%ed%98%81-%ed%95%84%ec%9a%94\/","title":{"rendered":"\ud2b8\ub7fc\ud504\uc758 \uc5f0\uc900 \uc758\uc7a5 \uc9c0\uba85\uc790 \ucf00\ube48 \uc6cc\uc2dc \u201c\uac1c\ud601 \ud544\uc694\u201d\u2026\ub300\ucc28\ub300\uc870\ud45c \ucd95\uc18c \uc2dc \uae08\ub9ac \uc778\ud558 \uac00\ub2a5"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>\ucf00\ube48 \uc6cc\uc2dc(Kevin Warsh) \uc804 \uc5f0\uc900 \uc774\uc0ac(\ub3c4\ub110\ub4dc \ud2b8\ub7fc\ud504 \ub300\ud1b5\ub839\uc774 \uc81c\ub86c \ud30c\uc6d4 \uc758\uc7a5 \ud6c4\uc784\uc73c\ub85c \uc9c0\uba85)\uac00 \uc0c1\uc6d0 \uc740\ud589\uc704\uc6d0\ud68c\uc5d0\uc11c **\uadfc\ubcf8\uc801\uc778 \uc815\ucc45 \uac1c\ud601**\uc744 \ucd94\uc9c4\ud558\uaca0\ub2e4\uace0 \ubc1d\ud614\ub2e4. \uadf8\ub294 \uac1c\ud601 \ud544\uc694\uc131\uc744 **\ubb3c\uac00 \ubd80\ub2f4(\uc0dd\ud65c\ube44 \uc0c1\uc2b9)**\uacfc \uc5f0\uacb0\ud558\uba70, \uc5f0\uc900\uc740 **\ubb3c\uac00 \uc548\uc815(\uc778\ud50c\ub808\uc774\uc158\uc744 \ub0ae\uace0 \uc548\uc815\uc801\uc73c\ub85c \uc720\uc9c0)**\uc5d0 \uc9d1\uc911\ud558\uace0 **\ubc95\uc801\uc73c\ub85c \ud5c8\uc6a9\ub41c \uad8c\ud55c \ubc94\uc704(\ucc45\ubb34)** \uc548\uc5d0\uc11c \ud589\ub3d9\ud574\uc57c \ud55c\ub2e4\uace0 \ub9d0\ud588\ub2e4.<\/p>\n<p>\uc6cc\uc2dc\ub294 **\uc0c8\ub85c\uc6b4 \uc778\ud50c\ub808\uc774\uc158 \uc6b4\uc601\uccb4\uacc4(\uc5b4\ub5a4 \uc9c0\ud45c\uc640 \uae30\uc900\uc73c\ub85c \ubb3c\uac00 \ubaa9\ud45c\ub97c \ub2ec\uc131\ud560\uc9c0 \uc815\ud558\ub294 \ubc29\uc2dd)**, **\uc815\ucc45 \uc218\ub2e8 \uc6b4\uc6a9 \ubc29\uc2dd\uc758 \ubcc0\uacbd**, **\ub354 \uba85\ud655\ud55c \uc18c\ud1b5**\uc744 \uc694\uad6c\ud588\ub2e4. \uadf8\ub294 **\uae08\ub9ac \uc870\uc815**\uc774 **\uad6d\ucc44 \ub9e4\uc785(\uc591\uc801\uc644\ud654\u00b7QE: \uc911\uc559\uc740\ud589\uc774 \ub3c8\uc744 \ud480\uc5b4 \ucc44\uad8c\uc744 \uc0ac\uc11c \uc2dc\uc7a5\uae08\ub9ac\ub97c \ub0ae\ucd94\ub294 \uc815\ucc45)**\ubcf4\ub2e4 \uacf5\uc815\ud558\ub2e4\uace0 \uc8fc\uc7a5\ud588\uace0, \uc5f0\uc900\uc740 \u201c**\uc7ac\uc815\uc758 \uc601\uc5ed(\uc815\ubd80 \uc9c0\ucd9c\u00b7\uc138\uae08 \ub4f1)**\u201d\uc5d0\uc11c \uc190\uc744 \ub5bc\uc57c \ud55c\ub2e4\uace0 \uac15\uc870\ud588\ub2e4.<\/p>\n<h3>Message Discipline And Policy Reset<\/h3>\n<p>\uc6cc\uc2dc\ub294 \uc5f0\uc900\uc774 \uc785\uc7a5\uc744 \ubc14\uafb8\uace0 \uc624\ub958\ub97c \ube68\ub9ac \ubc14\ub85c\uc7a1\uc744 \uc218 \uc788\uc5b4\uc57c \ud55c\ub2e4\uba70, **\ud3ec\uc6cc\ub4dc \uac00\uc774\ub358\uc2a4(\ubbf8\ub9ac \uae08\ub9ac \uacbd\ub85c\ub97c \u2018\uc608\uace0\u2019\ud574 \uc2dc\uc7a5 \uae30\ub300\ub97c \uc720\ub3c4\ud558\ub294 \ubc29\uc2dd)**\uc5d0 \ud68c\uc758\uc801 \uacac\ud574\ub97c \ubc1d\ud614\ub2e4. \ub610 \uc5f0\uc900 \uc778\uc0ac\ub4e4\uc774 \ud5a5\ud6c4 \uae08\ub9ac \uacbd\ub85c\uc5d0 \ub300\ud574 \uc0ac\uc804\uc5d0 \ub108\ubb34 \ub9ce\uc740 \ubc1c\uc5b8\uc744 \ud55c\ub2e4\uace0 \uc9c0\uc801\ud588\ub2e4.<\/p>\n<p>\uadf8\ub294 \uc778\ud50c\ub808\uc774\uc158 \uc704\ud5d8\uc774 \ub2e4\uc18c \uac1c\uc120\ub410\uc9c0\ub9cc, \ubb3c\uac00 \uc9c0\ud45c\ub294 \uc644\ubcbd\ud558\uc9c0 \uc54a\uace0 \uc815\ucc45 \ud6a8\uacfc\ub294 **\uc2dc\ucc28(\uacb0\uc815 \ud6c4 \uc2e4\uc81c \uacbd\uae30\u00b7\ubb3c\uac00\uc5d0 \ub098\ud0c0\ub0a0 \ub54c\uae4c\uc9c0 \uac78\ub9ac\ub294 \uc2dc\uac04)**\ub97c \ub450\uace0 \ub098\ud0c0\ub09c\ub2e4\uace0 \ub9d0\ud588\ub2e4. \uad00\uc138 \uc815\ucc45\uc774 \uc778\ud50c\ub808\uc774\uc158 \uc0c1\ubc29 \uc774\ud0c8(\uc608\uc0c1\ubcf4\ub2e4 \ub192\uac8c \uc624\ub974\ub294 \ud604\uc0c1)\uc744 \uc124\uba85\ud55c\ub2e4\ub294 \uc8fc\uc7a5\uc5d0\ub294 \ub3d9\uc758\ud558\uc9c0 \uc54a\uc558\uace0, **AI(\uc778\uacf5\uc9c0\ub2a5)** \ud655\uc0b0 \ud6a8\uacfc\ub97c \ubc18\uc601\ud574 \uc5f0\uc900\uc774 **\uacbd\uc81c \ubaa8\ub378(\uacbd\uc81c\ub97c \uc608\uce21\u00b7\uc124\uba85\ud558\ub294 \uacc4\uc0b0 \ud2c0)**\uc744 \uc7ac\uc810\uac80\ud574\uc57c \ud55c\ub2e4\uace0 \ud588\ub2e4.<\/p>\n<p>\uc6cc\uc2dc\ub294 **\ub300\ucc28\ub300\uc870\ud45c(\uc5f0\uc900\uc774 \ubcf4\uc720\ud55c \uad6d\ucc44\u00b7MBS \ub4f1 \uc790\uc0b0 \uaddc\ubaa8)**\ub97c \uc904\uc774\uba74 \uae08\ub9ac\ub97c \ub354 \ub0ae\uac8c \uac00\uc838\uac08 \uc5ec\uc9c0\uac00 \uc0dd\uae30\uace0, \ubb3c\uac00 \uc131\uacfc\uc640 \uacbd\uc81c\ub3c4 \uac1c\uc120\ub420 \uc218 \uc788\ub2e4\uace0 \uc8fc\uc7a5\ud588\ub2e4. \uadf8\ub294 \ud654\uc694\uc77c 09:00 GMT\uc5d0 \uc99d\uc5b8\ud560 \uc608\uc815\uc774\ub2e4.<\/p>\n<p>CME \ud398\ub4dc\uc6cc\uce58 \ud234(FedWatch Tool: \uc5f0\ubc29\uae30\uae08\uae08\ub9ac \uc120\ubb3c \uac00\uaca9\uc73c\ub85c \ud5a5\ud6c4 \uae08\ub9ac \ud655\ub960\uc744 \ucd94\uc815\ud558\ub294 \uc9c0\ud45c)\uc740 2026\ub144 \ub9d0 \uae30\uc900 \uc815\ucc45\uae08\ub9ac\uac00 **3.5%~3.75%\ub85c \ub3d9\uacb0**\ub420 \ud655\ub960\uc744 \uc57d 60%\ub85c \ubcf4\uc5ec\uc900\ub2e4. 1\uc6d4\uc5d0\ub294 \uc2dc\uc7a5\uc774 \uc62c\ud574 25bp(0.25%\ud3ec\uc778\ud2b8) \uc778\ud558 3\ud68c\ub97c \uc608\uc0c1\ud588\uc9c0\ub9cc, \ubbf8\uad6d\u00b7\uc774\uc2a4\ub77c\uc5d8\uc758 \uc774\ub780 \uad00\ub828 \uad70\uc0ac \ud589\ub3d9\uc73c\ub85c \uc720\uac00\uac00 \uc624\ub974\uba70 \uc778\ud50c\ub808\uc774\uc158 \uc6b0\ub824\uac00 \ucee4\uc9c0\uc790 \uae30\ub300\uac00 \ubc14\ub00c\uc5c8\ub2e4.<\/p>\n<h3>Geopolitics Oil And Fed Volatility<\/h3>\n<p>2026\ub144 4\uc6d4 21\uc77c \uae30\uc900, \ub2e8\uae30 \ud575\uc2ec \ubcc0\uc218\ub294 \uc774\ub780\ubc1c \uc9c0\uc815\ud559 \ub9ac\uc2a4\ud06c\ub2e4. \uc774\ubc88 \uc218\uc694\uc77c \ud734\uc804\uc774 \ub9cc\ub8cc\ub418\uace0 \uc5f0\uc7a5 \uac00\ub2a5\uc131\uc774 \ub0ae\uc544 \ubcf4\uc774\ub294 \uac00\uc6b4\ub370, \uc720\uac00 \ubcc0\ub3d9\uc131\uc774 \ucd5c\ub300 \uc6b0\ub824\ub85c \ub5a0\uc62c\ub790\ub2e4. \uc11c\ubd80\ud14d\uc0ac\uc2a4\uc0b0\uc6d0\uc720(WTI)\uac00 1\uc6d4 \ubc30\ub7f4\ub2f9 \uc57d 85\ub2ec\ub7ec\uc5d0\uc11c 110\ub2ec\ub7ec\ub97c \ub118\uc5b4\uc11c\uba70 \uc778\ud50c\ub808\uc774\uc158 \uae30\ub300\ub97c \uc790\uadf9\ud588\ub2e4.<\/p>\n<p>\uc6cc\uc2dc\uac00 \uc774\ub044\ub294 \uc0c8\ub85c\uc6b4 \uc5f0\uc900 \uccb4\uc81c\uac00 \ub4e4\uc5b4\uc124 \uac00\ub2a5\uc131\uc740, \ub354 \ub9e4\ud30c\uc801(\ubb3c\uac00 \uc5b5\uc81c\ub97c \uc704\ud574 \uae08\ub9ac \uc778\uc0c1\uc5d0 \uc801\uadf9\uc801\uc778 \uc131\ud5a5)\uc774\uace0 \uc608\uce21\uc774 \uc5b4\ub824\uc6b4 \uc911\uc559\uc740\ud589\uc5d0 \ub300\ube44\ud574\uc57c \ud568\uc744 \ub73b\ud55c\ub2e4. \ud3ec\uc6cc\ub4dc \uac00\uc774\ub358\uc2a4\uc5d0 \ub300\ud55c \ud68c\uc758\ub860\uc740 \ud5a5\ud6c4 \uae08\ub9ac \uacbd\ub85c\uc5d0 \ub300\ud55c \uc0ac\uc804 \uc548\ub0b4\uac00 \uc904\uc5b4\ub4e0\ub2e4\ub294 \uc758\ubbf8\ub2e4. \uc774\uc5d0 \ub530\ub77c \uc5f0\uc900 \ud68c\uc758 \uc804\ud6c4 \ubcc0\ub3d9\uc131\uc774 \ucee4\uc9c8 \uac00\ub2a5\uc131\uc774 \ub192\uace0, \uc774\ub294 \uc635\uc158 \uc804\ub7b5\uc5d0 \ubc18\uc601\ud560 \ud544\uc694\uac00 \uc788\ub2e4.<\/p>\n<p>\ub300\ucc28\ub300\uc870\ud45c \ucd95\uc18c \ubc1c\uc5b8\uc740 \ucc44\uad8c\uc2dc\uc7a5\uc5d0 \uc911\uc694\ud558\ub2e4. \ub300\ucc28\ub300\uc870\ud45c\ub97c \uc904\uc774\uba74 \uc7a5\uae30\uc801\uc73c\ub85c \uae08\ub9ac\ub97c \ub354 \ub0ae\ucd9c \uc218 \uc788\ub2e4\ub294 \uc778\uc2dd\uc740 **\uc591\uc801\uae34\ucd95(QT: \ubcf4\uc720 \ucc44\uad8c\uc744 \ub9cc\uae30\uc0c1\ud658\uc73c\ub85c \uc904\uc774\uac70\ub098 \ub9e4\uac01\ud574 \uc2dc\uc7a5 \uc720\ub3d9\uc131\uc744 \ud68c\uc218\ud558\ub294 \uc815\ucc45)** \uc758\uc9c0\ub97c \uc2dc\uc0ac\ud55c\ub2e4. \uc815\ucc45\uae08\ub9ac\uac00 \ub3d9\uacb0\ub418\ub354\ub77c\ub3c4 QT\ub294 **\uc7a5\uae30\uae08\ub9ac(\ub9cc\uae30\uac00 \uae34 \uad6d\ucc44 \uae08\ub9ac)**\uc5d0 \uc0c1\uc2b9 \uc555\ub825\uc744 \uc904 \uc218 \uc788\ub2e4. 2013\ub144 \u201c\ud14c\uc774\ud37c \ud0e0\ud2b8\ub7fc(taper tantrum: \uc790\uc0b0\ub9e4\uc785 \ucd95\uc18c \uc2e0\ud638\ub9cc\uc73c\ub85c \uae08\ub9ac\uac00 \uae09\ub4f1\ud558\uace0 \uc2dc\uc7a5\uc774 \ud754\ub4e4\ub9b0 \uc0ac\uac74)\u201d \ub2f9\uc2dc\uc758 \ubc18\uc751\uc744 \ub5a0\uc62c\ub9b4 \ub9cc\ud558\ub2e4. \uc5f0\uc900 \ub300\ucc28\ub300\uc870\ud45c\ub294 \uc5ec\uc804\ud788 \uc57d 7\uc870\ub2ec\ub7ec \uc218\uc900\uc73c\ub85c, \uc6cc\uc2dc\ub294 \uc774\ub97c \uc904\uc774\ub824\ub294 \uac83\uc73c\ub85c \ubcf4\uc778\ub2e4.<\/p>\n<p>\uc2dc\uc7a5\uc740 1\uc6d4\uc5d0 \uc608\uc0c1\ud588\ub358 3\ud68c \uae08\ub9ac \uc778\ud558 \uc804\ub9dd\uc744 \uac70\ub46c\ub4e4\uc774\ub294 \ubc29\ud5a5\uc73c\ub85c \uc7ac\ud3c9\uac00\ud588\ub2e4. CME \ud398\ub4dc\uc6cc\uce58 \ud234\uc740 \uc774\uc81c \uc815\ucc45\uae08\ub9ac\uac00 \uc62c\ud574 \ub9d0\uae4c\uc9c0 **3.5%~3.75%\uc5d0\uc11c \uc720\uc9c0\ub420 \ud655\ub960\uc774 60%**\ub77c\uace0 \uc81c\uc2dc\ud55c\ub2e4. \uc55e\uc73c\ub85c \uba87 \uc8fc \ub3d9\uc548 \uc5d0\ub108\uc9c0 \uac00\uaca9\uc774 \ub192\uc740 \uc218\uc900\uc744 \uc720\uc9c0\ud558\uba74 \ub2e4\uc74c \uc870\uce58\uac00 \uc778\uc0c1\uc774 \ub420 \uac00\ub2a5\uc131\ub3c4 \ucee4\uc9c8 \uc218 \uc788\uc5b4, **\ud30c\uc0dd\uc0c1\ud488(\uc120\ubb3c\u00b7\uc635\uc158 \ub4f1 \uae30\ucd08\uc790\uc0b0 \uac00\uaca9\uc5d0 \uc5f0\ub3d9\ub418\ub294 \uae08\uc735\uc0c1\ud488)**\uc744 \ud65c\uc6a9\ud55c \ud5e4\uc9c0(\uc704\ud5d8 \ud68c\ud53c)\ub97c \uac80\ud1a0\ud560 \ud544\uc694\uac00 \uc788\ub2e4.<\/p>\n<p>\uc6cc\uc2dc\uac00 \ub2e4\uc591\ud55c \uacac\ud574\uc640 \u2018\ud63c\ub780\uc2a4\ub7ec\uc6b4 \ud68c\uc758\u2019\ub97c \uc120\ud638\ud55c\ub2e4\uba74, \uacfc\uac70\ucc98\ub7fc \ud569\uc758\uac00 \uc2dc\uc7a5\uc744 \uc774\ub04c\ub358 \ubc29\uc2dd\uc774 \uc57d\ud574\uc9c8 \uc218 \uc788\ub2e4. \uc774\ub294 \ubc29\ud5a5\uc131 \ubca0\ud305\uc758 \uc704\ud5d8\uc744 \ud0a4\uc6b0\uba70, \uc8fc\uac00\uc9c0\uc218\u00b7\ucc44\uad8c\uc5d0\uc11c **\uc2a4\ud2b8\ub798\ub4e4(straddle: \uac19\uc740 \ub9cc\uae30\u00b7\ud589\uc0ac\uac00\uc758 \ucf5c\uc635\uc158\uacfc \ud48b\uc635\uc158\uc744 \ub3d9\uc2dc\uc5d0 \ub9e4\uc218\ud574 \ud070 \ubcc0\ub3d9\uc5d0\uc11c \uc218\uc775\uc744 \ub178\ub9ac\ub294 \uc804\ub7b5)** \ub4f1 \ubcc0\ub3d9\uc131\uc5d0 \ubca0\ud305\ud558\ub294 \uc804\ub7b5\uc758 \ub9e4\ub825\uc774 \ucee4\uc9c8 \uc218 \uc788\uc74c\uc744 \ub73b\ud55c\ub2e4. \uc5f0\uc900\uc774 \uc0ac\uc804 \uacbd\uace0 \uc5c6\uc774 \ube60\ub974\uac8c \uc624\ub958\ub97c \uc218\uc815\ud558\ub294 \ud658\uacbd\uc5d0 \ub9de\ucdb0 \ub300\uc751\ud574\uc57c \ud55c\ub2e4.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>\u201c\uc6cc\uc2dc \uc1fc\ud06c\u201d \ud604\uc2e4\ud654? \ud30c\uc6d4 \ud6c4\uc784 \uc6cc\uc2dc, \uc5f0\uc900\uc758 \ubb3c\uac00\uc548\uc815 \uc911\uc2ec \u2018\uc815\ucc45 \ub9ac\uc14b\u2019 \uc608\uace0\u2026QE\ubcf4\ub2e4 \uae08\ub9ac\u00b7\ub300\ucc28\ub300\uc870\ud45c \ucd95\uc18c \uac15\uc870. \uc774\ub780\ubc1c \uc720\uac00 \uae09\ub4f1\uc5d0 \uc778\ud558 \uae30\ub300 \ud6c4\ud1f4, \ud68c\uc758 \ubcc0\ub3d9\uc131 \ud655\ub300 \uacbd\uace0.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-45187","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t<!-- All in One SEO Pro 5.0.1.1 - aioseo.com -->\n\t<meta name=\"description\" content=\"\u201c\uc6cc\uc2dc \uc1fc\ud06c\u201d \ud604\uc2e4\ud654? \ud30c\uc6d4 \ud6c4\uc784 \uc6cc\uc2dc, \uc5f0\uc900\uc758 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