\ucf54\uba54\ub974\uce20\ubc29\ud06c(Commerzbank) \uc560\ub110\ub9ac\uc2a4\ud2b8 \ud5e8\ub9ac \ud558\uc624(Henry Hao) \ubc15\uc0ac\ub294 \uc911\ub3d9 \uae34\uc7a5\uacfc \ud638\ub974\ubb34\uc988 \ud574\ud611(Strait of Hormuz) \uad00\ub828 \uc704\ud5d8\uc73c\ub85c \uc5d0\ub108\uc9c0 \uacf5\uae09\uc774 \ud754\ub4e4\ub9b4 \uacbd\uc6b0, \uc911\uad6d\uc774 \uc544\uc2dc\uc544 \uc5ec\ub7ec \uacbd\uc81c\uad8c\ubcf4\ub2e4 \ucda9\uaca9\uc744 \ub354 \uc798 \ud761\uc218\ud560 \uc218 \uc788\ub2e4\uace0 \ubd84\uc11d\ud588\ub2e4. \ubcf4\uace0\uc11c\ub294 \uc6d0\uc720 \uc218\uc785\uc120 \ub2e4\ubcc0\ud654, \ub300\uaddc\ubaa8 \uc804\ub7b5\ube44\ucd95\uc720(strategic petroleum reserves: \uad6d\uac00\uac00 \ube44\uc0c1\uc2dc\uc5d0 \uc4f0\uae30 \uc704\ud574 \uc800\uc7a5\ud574 \ub454 \uc6d0\uc720), GDP(\uad6d\ub0b4\ucd1d\uc0dd\uc0b0) \ub300\ube44 \ud654\uc11d\uc5f0\ub8cc \uc0ac\uc6a9\ub7c9 \uac10\uc18c\ub97c \uadfc\uac70\ub85c \ub4e4\uc5c8\ub2e4.<\/p>\n
\uc544\uc2dc\uc544 \uac01\uad6d\uc740 \uc804\ub7b5\ube44\ucd95\uc720\ub97c \ud65c\uc6a9\ud558\uace0 \uc788\uc73c\ub098 \ud6a8\uacfc\ub294 \uc5c7\uac08\ub9b0\ub2e4. \uc77c\ubcf8\u00b7\ud55c\uad6d\u00b7\ub300\ub9cc\uc740 \uad6d\uac00 \ube44\ucd95 \uaddc\ubaa8\uac00 \ud070 \ud3b8\uc778 \ubc18\uba74, \uc778\ub3c4\u00b7\ud0dc\uad6d\u00b7\ud544\ub9ac\ud540\uc740 \uc7ac\uace0\uac00 \uc81c\ud55c\uc801\uc774\uc5b4\uc11c \uacf5\uae09 \ucc28\uc9c8\uc774 \uc7a5\uae30\ud654\ub420 \ub54c \ub354 \ucde8\uc57d\ud558\ub2e4.<\/p>\n
\uc911\uad6d\uc740 \ube44\ucd95\uc720\uc640 \uc815\ucc45 \uc218\ub2e8\uc744 \ud1b5\ud574 \ub2e8\uae30 \uac00\uaca9 \uae09\ub4f1\uacfc \uacf5\uae09 \ucda9\uaca9\uc744 \uc644\ud654\ud558\ub294 \uac83\uc73c\ub85c \ud3c9\uac00\ub410\ub2e4. \ub2e4\ub9cc \uc9c0\uc815\ud559\uc801 \ubcc0\ub3d9\uc131\uc774 \uc774\uc5b4\uc9c0\uba74\uc11c \uc774\ub7f0 \ub2e8\uae30 \uc644\ucda9 \ub2a5\ub825\uc5d0\ub3c4 \uc9c0\uc18d\uc801\uc778 \uc555\ub825\uc774 \uac00\ud574\uc9c8 \uc218 \uc788\ub2e4\uace0 \ubd24\ub2e4.<\/p>\n
\uc911\uad6d\uc740 \uc218\uc785\uc120 \ub2e4\ubcc0\ud654\ub85c \uc911\ub3d9\uc0b0 \uc6d0\uc720 \uc758\uc874\ub3c4\ub97c \ub0ae\ucdc4\uc73c\uba70, \uc8fc\uc694 \uc544\uc2dc\uc544 \uacbd\uc81c\uad8c \uac00\uc6b4\ub370 \uc911\ub3d9 \ube44\uc911\uc774 \uac00\uc7a5 \ub0ae\uc740 \uc218\uc900\uc774\ub77c\uace0 \uc124\uba85\ud588\ub2e4. \ubcf4\uace0\uc11c\ub294 \uc911\uad6d\uc758 \uc6d0\uc720 \uc870\ub2ec\uc5d0\uc11c \uc911\ub3d9 \ube44\uc911\uc774 2022\ub144 \uc774\ud6c4 \uac10\uc18c \ucd94\uc138\ub77c\uace0 \ubc1d\ud614\ub2e4.<\/p>\n
\ub610\ud55c \uc911\uad6d\uc758 \uc5d0\ub108\uc9c0 \uad6c\uc131(\uc5d0\ub108\uc9c0 \ubbf9\uc2a4)\uc774 \uc7ac\uc0dd\uc5d0\ub108\uc9c0(renewables: \ud0dc\uc591\uad11\u00b7\ud48d\ub825 \ub4f1 \ub2e4\uc2dc \uc0dd\uc0b0 \uac00\ub2a5\ud55c \uc5d0\ub108\uc9c0) \ud655\ub300 \ubc29\ud5a5\uc73c\ub85c \uc774\ub3d9\ud558\uace0, GDP \ub300\ube44 \ud654\uc11d\uc5f0\ub8cc \uc18c\ube44\uac00 \uc904\uace0 \uc788\ub2e4\uace0 \ub367\ubd99\uc600\ub2e4. \ub2e4\ub9cc \uc5c5\uc885\ubcc4 \uc601\ud5a5\uc740 \ub2ec\ub77c\uc9c8 \uc218 \uc788\uc73c\uba70, \ubcc0\ub3d9\uc131\uc774 \uc9c0\uc18d\ub418\uba74 \uc6b4\uc1a1\uacfc \ud654\ud559 \ubd80\ubb38\uc774 \ub354 \ud070 \ubd80\ub2f4\uc744 \ubc1b\uc744 \uc218 \uc788\ub2e4\uace0 \uc9c0\uc801\ud588\ub2e4.<\/p>\n
\ud638\ub974\ubb34\uc988 \ud574\ud611 \uae34\uc7a5\uc744 \uace0\ub824\ud558\uba74, \ucde8\uc57d\ud55c \uc544\uc2dc\uc544 \uc774\uc6c3 \uad6d\uac00\ubcf4\ub2e4 \uc911\uad6d \uc790\uc0b0\uc744 \uc120\ud638\ud558\ub294 \uac70\ub798\ub97c \uac80\ud1a0\ud560 \ud544\uc694\uac00 \uc788\ub2e4. \ud55c \uc804\ub7b5\uc73c\ub85c \u2018\ud398\uc5b4 \ud2b8\ub808\uc774\ub4dc(pairs trade: \uc0c1\uad00\uad00\uacc4\uac00 \uc788\ub294 \ub450 \uc790\uc0b0\uc744 \ub3d9\uc2dc\uc5d0 \ub9e4\uc218\u00b7\ub9e4\ub3c4\ud574 \uc0c1\ub300 \uc131\uacfc\uc5d0 \ubca0\ud305\ud558\ub294 \uac70\ub798)\u2019\ub97c \uad6c\uc131\ud574 \uc704\uc548\ud654(\uc911\uad6d \uc704\uc548)\ub97c \ub9e4\uc218(\ub871)\ud558\uace0, \uc5d4\ud654\uc640 \uc6d0\ud654(\ud55c\uad6d \uc6d0)\ub97c \ubb36\uc740 \ubc14\uc2a4\ucf13\uc744 \ub9e4\ub3c4(\uc20f)\ud558\ub294 \ubc29\uc2dd\uc774 \uc81c\uc2dc\ub410\ub2e4. \uc774 \ud3ec\uc9c0\uc158\uc758 \uadfc\uac70\ub85c\ub294 2026\ub144 3\uc6d4 \uae30\uc900 \uc77c\ubcf8\uc774 \uc6d0\uc720\uc758 88%\ub97c \ud574\ub2f9 \ud574\ud611\uc744 \ud1b5\ud574 \uc218\uc785\ud55c\ub2e4\ub294 \ucd5c\uc2e0 \ub370\uc774\ud130, \uadf8\ub9ac\uace0 2026\ub144 1\ubd84\uae30 \uc911\uad6d\uc758 \uc911\ub3d9 \uc758\uc874\ub3c4\uac00 42%\uae4c\uc9c0 \ub0ae\uc544\uc84c\ub2e4\ub294 \uc218\uce58\uac00 \uc5b8\uae09\ub410\ub2e4.<\/p>\n
\ube0c\ub80c\ud2b8\uc720(Brent: \uad6d\uc81c \uc6d0\uc720 \uac00\uaca9\uc758 \ub300\ud45c \uae30\uc900) \uc120\ubb3c(futures: \ubbf8\ub798 \ud2b9\uc815 \uc2dc\uc810\uc5d0 \uc815\ud574\uc9c4 \uac00\uaca9\uc73c\ub85c \uc0ac\uace0\ud30c\ub294 \uacc4\uc57d)\uc744 \ub9e4\uc218\ud558\uac70\ub098 \ucf5c\uc635\uc158(call options: \uc815\ud574\uc9c4 \uac00\uaca9\uc5d0 \uc0b4 \uc218 \uc788\ub294 \uad8c\ub9ac)\uc744 \ub9e4\uc218\ud558\ub294 \uac83\uc740, \ud574\ud611\ubc1c \uacf5\uae09 \ucda9\uaca9\uc5d0 \ub300\ud55c \uc9c1\uc811\uc801 \ud5e4\uc9c0(hedge: \uc704\ud5d8\uc744 \uc904\uc774\uae30 \uc704\ud55c \ubc29\uc5b4 \uac70\ub798)\ub85c \uc81c\uc2dc\ub410\ub2e4. 2024~2025\ub144 \uc9c0\uc5ed \uae34\uc7a5 \uace0\uc870 \ub54c \uac00\uaca9\uc774 \ube60\ub974\uac8c \ubc18\uc751\ud588\ub358 \ub9cc\ud07c, \ud558\ub8e8 \uc57d 2,100\ub9cc \ubc30\ub7f4\uc774 \ud1b5\uacfc\ud558\ub294 \ud638\ub974\ubb34\uc988\uc5d0 \ucc28\uc9c8\uc774 \uc0dd\uae30\uba74 \uae00\ub85c\ubc8c \uc2dc\uc7a5\uc5d0 \uc989\uac01\uc801\uc778 \uc601\ud5a5\uc774 \ubc1c\uc0dd\ud560 \uc218 \uc788\ub2e4\ub294 \uc124\uba85\uc774\ub2e4. \uc9c0\uc5ed \ubd84\uc7c1 \uaca9\ud654\uc5d0 \ub300\ube44\ud558\ub294 \uac00\uc7a5 \ub2e8\uc21c\ud55c \ud3ec\uc9c0\uc154\ub2dd\uc73c\ub85c\ub3c4 \uc5b8\uae09\ub410\ub2e4.<\/p>\n
\uc911\uad6d\uc758 \uad6c\uc870\uc801 \ud68c\ubcf5\ub825\uc740 \uc8fc\ubcc0\uad6d\uc5d0 \uc5c6\ub294 \uc644\ucda9 \uc5ed\ud560\uc744 \ud558\uba70, \uc911\uad6d \uc2dc\uc7a5\uc744 \uc0c1\ub300\uc801 \uc548\uc804\uc9c0\ub300\ub85c \ub9cc\ub4e4 \uc218 \uc788\ub2e4\ub294 \uad00\uc810\ub3c4 \uc81c\uc2dc\ub410\ub2e4. \uc9c0\ub09c\uc8fc \uc911\uad6d \uad6d\uac00\uc2dd\ub7c9\ubb3c\uc790\ube44\ucd95\uad6d(National Food and Strategic Reserves Administration)\uc740 \ube44\ucd95\ubd84\uc774 \uc21c\uc218\uc785 \uae30\uc900 90\uc77c\uc744 \ub118\ub294\ub2e4\uace0 \ud655\uc778\ud574, \ub2e8\uae30 \uac00\uaca9 \ucda9\uaca9\uc744 \ud761\uc218\ud560 \uc5ec\ub825\uc774 \ud06c\ub2e4\uace0 \ud588\ub2e4. \uc5ec\uae30\uc5d0 2026\ub144 2\uc6d4\uae4c\uc9c0 \uc7ac\uc0dd\uc5d0\ub108\uc9c0 \ubc1c\uc804\ub7c9\uc774 \uc804\ub144 \ub300\ube44 25% \uc99d\uac00\ud588\ub2e4\ub294 \ubcf4\ub3c4\ub3c4 \ub354\ud574\uc838, \uc911\uad6d\uc758 \uc0c1\ub300\uc801 \uacbd\uae30 \uc548\uc815\uc131 \ub17c\ub9ac\ub97c \uac15\ud654\ud55c\ub2e4\uace0 \ud3c9\uac00\ud588\ub2e4.<\/p>\n
\ub2e4\ub9cc \uc911\uad6d \uacbd\uc81c \ub0b4\ubd80\uc5d0\uc11c\ub3c4 \ucda9\uaca9\uc774 \uace0\ub974\uac8c \ub098\ud0c0\ub098\uc9c0 \uc54a\uc744 \uc218 \uc788\ub2e4. \ubd84\uc11d\uc740 \uc5d0\ub108\uc9c0 \ud22c\uc785\ube44(\uc5d0\ub108\uc9c0 \ube44\uc6a9)\uc5d0 \ubbfc\uac10\ud55c \uc6b4\uc1a1\u00b7\ud654\ud559 \uc5c5\uc885\uc758 \uc57d\uc138 \uac00\ub2a5\uc131\uc744 \uc9c0\ubaa9\ud588\ub2e4. \uc774\ub97c \ubc18\uc601\ud558\ub294 \ubc29\ubc95\uc73c\ub85c \uc911\uad6d \uc0b0\uc5c5\uc6a9 \ud654\ud559\uc5d0 \uc9d1\uc911\ud55c ETF(\uc0c1\uc7a5\uc9c0\uc218\ud380\ub4dc: \uc8fc\uc2dd\ucc98\ub7fc \uac70\ub798\ub418\ub294 \ud380\ub4dc)\ub97c \ub9e4\ub3c4(\uc20f)\ud558\uac70\ub098, \uc0c1\ud558\uc774\u00b7\ud64d\ucf69 \uc0c1\uc7a5 \uc8fc\uc694 \ud56d\uacf5\u00b7\ud574\uc6b4\uc0ac\uc758 \ud48b\uc635\uc158(put options: \uc815\ud574\uc9c4 \uac00\uaca9\uc5d0 \ud314 \uc218 \uc788\ub294 \uad8c\ub9ac)\uc744 \ub9e4\uc218\ud558\ub294 \ubc29\uc548\uc774 \uc5b8\uae09\ub410\ub2e4.<\/p>\n
\ub610 \uc2dc\uc7a5 \ubcc0\ub3d9\uc131 \ud655\ub300 \uac00\ub2a5\uc131\uc774 \ub192\ub2e4\ub294 \uc810\uc5d0\uc11c \ubcc0\ub3d9\uc131\uc744 \ub9e4\uc218\ud574\uc57c \ud55c\ub2e4\ub294 \uc8fc\uc7a5\ub3c4 \uc81c\uc2dc\ub410\ub2e4. FTSE \ucc28\uc774\ub098 A50\uc640 \ud56d\uc14d\uc9c0\uc218 \uc635\uc158\uc758 \ub0b4\uc7ac\ubcc0\ub3d9\uc131(implied volatility: \uc635\uc158 \uac00\uaca9\uc5d0 \ubc18\uc601\ub41c \ud5a5\ud6c4 \uac00\uaca9 \ubcc0\ub3d9 \uae30\ub300\uce58)\uc774 \uc7a0\uc7ac \uc704\ud5d8 \ub300\ube44 \uc544\uc9c1 \ub0ae\ub2e4\ub294 \uac83\uc774\ub2e4. \uc2a4\ud2b8\ub798\ub4e4(straddle: \uac19\uc740 \ud589\uc0ac\uac00\uc758 \ucf5c\u00b7\ud48b \ub3d9\uc2dc \ub9e4\uc218) \ub610\ub294 \uc2a4\ud2b8\ub7ad\uae00(strangle: \ub2e4\ub978 \ud589\uc0ac\uac00\uc758 \ucf5c\u00b7\ud48b \ub3d9\uc2dc \ub9e4\uc218)\uc744 \ud1b5\ud574 \u2018\ub871 \ubca0\uac00(long vega: \ubcc0\ub3d9\uc131\uc774 \ucee4\uc9c8\uc218\ub85d \uc774\uc775\uc774 \ub298\uc5b4\ub098\ub294 \uc635\uc158 \ud3ec\uc9c0\uc158)\u2019\ub97c \uad6c\ucd95\ud558\uba74, \ucd5c\uc885 \ubc29\ud5a5\uacfc \ubb34\uad00\ud558\uac8c \uac00\uaca9 \ubcc0\ub3d9\uc5d0\uc11c \uc218\uc775\uc744 \ub178\ub9b4 \uc218 \uc788\ub2e4\uace0 \uc124\uba85\ud588\ub2e4.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
\u201c\ud638\ub974\ubb34\uc988 \ub9ac\uc2a4\ud06c, \u4e2d\uc774 \ub354 \ubc84\ud2f4\ub2e4\u201d \ucf54\uba54\ub974\uce20\ubc29\ud06c\ub294 \uc218\uc785\uc120 \ub2e4\ubcc0\ud654\u00b7\uc804\ub7b5\ube44\ucd95\uc720\u00b7\ud654\uc11d\uc5f0\ub8cc \uc9d1\uc57d\ub3c4 \uac10\uc18c\ub85c \uc911\uad6d \ucda9\uaca9\ud761\uc218\ub825 \uc6b0\uc704 \uc9c4\ub2e8. \uc704\uc548 \ub871\u00b7\uc5d4\/\uc6d0 \uc20f, \ube0c\ub80c\ud2b8 \ud5e4\uc9c0\u00b7\ubcc0\ub3d9\uc131 \ub9e4\uc218 \uc81c\uc2dc.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-45106","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/45106","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=45106"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/45106\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=45106"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=45106"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=45106"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}