{"id":44951,"date":"2026-04-17T20:55:31","date_gmt":"2026-04-17T20:55:31","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr\/uncategorized\/bnp%ed%8c%8c%eb%a6%ac%eb%b0%94-%ec%9d%b4%ec%bd%94%eb%85%b8%eb%af%b8%ec%8a%a4%ed%8a%b8-%ec%97%98%eb%a0%8c-%eb%b3%b4%eb%93%9c%ec%88%91-%ec%9d%b4%eb%9e%80-%ec%a0%84%ec%9f%81%eb%b0%9c-%ec%9c%a0\/"},"modified":"2026-04-17T20:55:31","modified_gmt":"2026-04-17T20:55:31","slug":"bnp%ed%8c%8c%eb%a6%ac%eb%b0%94-%ec%9d%b4%ec%bd%94%eb%85%b8%eb%af%b8%ec%8a%a4%ed%8a%b8-%ec%97%98%eb%a0%8c-%eb%b3%b4%eb%93%9c%ec%88%91-%ec%9d%b4%eb%9e%80-%ec%a0%84%ec%9f%81%eb%b0%9c-%ec%9c%a0","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/live-updates\/bnp%ed%8c%8c%eb%a6%ac%eb%b0%94-%ec%9d%b4%ec%bd%94%eb%85%b8%eb%af%b8%ec%8a%a4%ed%8a%b8-%ec%97%98%eb%a0%8c-%eb%b3%b4%eb%93%9c%ec%88%91-%ec%9d%b4%eb%9e%80-%ec%a0%84%ec%9f%81%eb%b0%9c-%ec%9c%a0\/","title":{"rendered":"BNP\ud30c\ub9ac\ubc14 \uc774\ucf54\ub178\ubbf8\uc2a4\ud2b8 \uc5d8\ub80c \ubcf4\ub4dc\uc211 \u201c\uc774\ub780 \uc804\uc7c1\ubc1c \uc720\uac00 \uae09\ub4f1, 2022\ub144\ubcf4\ub2e4 \uc778\ud50c\ub808\uc774\uc158 \uc555\ub825\uc740 \uc644\ud654\ub420 \uac83\u201d"},"content":{"rendered":"

BNP\ud30c\ub9ac\ubc14\uc758 \ud55c \uc774\ucf54\ub178\ubbf8\uc2a4\ud2b8\ub294 \uc774\ub780 \uc804\uc7c1\uacfc \uc5f0\uacc4\ub41c \uc720\uac00\u00b7\uac00\uc2a4 \uac00\uaca9 \uae09\ub4f1\uc744, \uc6b0\ud06c\ub77c\uc774\ub098 \uc804\uc7c1 \uc774\ud6c4\uc778 2022\ub144\uc5d0 \ub098\ud0c0\ub0ac\ub358 \uc5d0\ub108\uc9c0 \ucda9\uaca9\uacfc \ube44\uad50\ud588\ub2e4. \uae30\uc0ac\uc5d0\uc11c\ub294 \ube44\uc2b7\ud55c \uc694\uc778\uc774 \uc791\uc6a9\ud55c\ub2e4\uba74 \uc778\ud50c\ub808\uc774\uc158\uacfc \uc131\uc7a5\ub3c4 \ube44\uc2b7\ud55c \uacb0\uacfc\ub85c \uc774\uc5b4\uc9c8\uc9c0 \uc810\uac80\ud55c\ub2e4.<\/p>\n

\uae30\uc0ac\uc5d0 \ub530\ub974\uba74 \uc778\ud50c\ub808\uc774\uc158 \uc555\ub825\uc740 2022\ub144\ubcf4\ub2e4 \uc57d\ud560 \uc218 \uc788\ub2e4. \uc218\uc694\uac00 \uc608\uc804\ub9cc\ud07c \uac15\ud558\uc9c0 \uc54a\uace0(\uacbd\uae30\uc5d0\uc11c \uc0c1\ud488\u00b7\uc11c\ube44\uc2a4\ub97c \uc0ac\ub824\ub294 \ud798\uc774 \uc57d\ud568), \uacf5\uae09\ub3c4 \ub2f9\uc2dc\ucc98\ub7fc \ub9c9\ud788\uc9c0 \uc54a\uc544(\uc0dd\uc0b0\u00b7\uc6b4\uc1a1 \uc81c\uc57d\uc774 \uc644\ud654) \uc5d0\ub108\uc9c0 \uac00\uaca9 \uc0c1\uc2b9\uc774 \uc804\ubc18\uc801\uc778 \ubb3c\uac00\ub85c \ubc88\uc9c0\ub294 \uc815\ub3c4\uac00 \uc81c\ud55c\ub420 \uc218 \uc788\ub2e4\ub294 \uc124\uba85\uc774\ub2e4.<\/p>\n

Transmission And Timing Effects<\/h3>\n

\uae30\uc0ac\uc5d0\uc11c\ub294 \u2018\uc804\uc774 \uc9c0\uc5f0(Transmission delays)\u2019\uc73c\ub85c \uc778\ud574 \uc601\ud5a5\uc774 \ub098\ud0c0\ub098\ub294 \ub370\ub3c4, \uc0ac\ub77c\uc9c0\ub294 \ub370\ub3c4 \uc2dc\uac04\uc774 \uac78\ub9b4 \uc218 \uc788\ub2e4\uace0 \uc9c0\uc801\ud55c\ub2e4. \uc804\uc774 \uc9c0\uc5f0\uc774\ub780 \uc5d0\ub108\uc9c0 \uac00\uaca9 \ubcc0\ud654\uac00 \uae30\uc5c5 \ube44\uc6a9\uacfc \uc18c\ube44\uc790 \ubb3c\uac00\ub85c \uc804\ub2ec\ub418\ub294 \uacfc\uc815\uc774 \uc989\uc2dc \uc77c\uc5b4\ub098\uc9c0 \uc54a\ub294 \ud604\uc0c1\uc774\ub2e4. \uacbd\uc81c\uac00 \uc870\uc815\ub418\ub294 \ub3d9\uc548 \uc0c1\ud669\uc744 \uba74\ubc00\ud788 \uad00\ucc30\ud574\uc57c \ud55c\ub2e4\uace0 \ub367\ubd99\uc600\ub2e4.<\/p>\n

\ub610 \uc911\uc559\uc740\ud589\ub4e4\uc774 2021~2023\ub144 \uc778\ud50c\ub808\uc774\uc158 \uad6d\uba74\uc5d0\uc11c \uacbd\ud5d8\uc744 \uc313\uc558\ub2e4\uace0 \ud3c9\uac00\ud588\ub2e4. \uc774\uc5d0 \ub530\ub77c \ud30c\uae09\ud6a8\uacfc(\ub2e4\ub978 \ud488\ubaa9\u00b7\uc11c\ube44\uc2a4\ub85c \ubc88\uc9d0), 2\ucc28 \ud6a8\uacfc(\uc784\uae08\u00b7\uac00\uaca9\uc774 \uc5f0\uc1c4\uc801\uc73c\ub85c \ub2e4\uc2dc \uc624\ub974\ub294 \ud604\uc0c1), \uadf8\ub9ac\uace0 \uac00\uaca9 \uc0c1\uc2b9-\uc778\ud50c\ub808\uc774\uc158 \uae30\ub300-\uc784\uae08\uc774 \uc11c\ub85c \uc790\uadf9\ud558\ub294 \uc545\uc21c\ud658(\uc784\uae08-\ubb3c\uac00 \uc545\uc21c\ud658)\uc744 \uc904\uc774\uae30 \uc704\ud574 \ub354 \ube60\ub974\uac8c \ub300\uc751\ud560 \uc218 \uc788\ub2e4\uace0 \ubd24\ub2e4.<\/p>\n

\uc720\ub85c\uc874, \ubbf8\uad6d, \uc6d0\uc720\u00b7\uac00\uc2a4 \uc2dc\uc7a5, \uc2e0\ud765\uad6d\uc758 \uacbd\uae30\u00b7\ubb3c\uac00 \uc601\ud5a5\uc744 \ucd94\uc801\ud558\uae30 \uc704\ud55c \uc9c0\ud45c\ub4e4\uc744 \uc120\uc815\ud588\uc73c\uba70, \ud604\uc7ac \uc5ec\uac74\uc774 2022\ub144\uacfc \uc5bc\ub9c8\ub098 \uc720\uc0ac\ud55c\uc9c0 \ud3c9\uac00\ud558\ub824\ub294 \ubaa9\uc801\uc774\ub77c\uace0 \uc124\uba85\ud588\ub2e4.<\/p>\n

Why This Shock Differs From 2022<\/h3>\n

\ucd5c\uadfc \uc720\uac00 \uae09\ub4f1\uc5d0\ub3c4 \uc774\ubc88 \uc5d0\ub108\uc9c0 \ucda9\uaca9\uc774 2022\ub144\uacfc \uac19\uc740 \u2018\uc778\ud50c\ub808\uc774\uc158 \uc545\uc21c\ud658\u2019\uc744 \uc7ac\ud604\ud558\uc9c0\ub294 \uc54a\uc744 \uac83\uc73c\ub85c \ubcf8\ub2e4\uace0 \ubc1d\ud614\ub2e4. \ube0c\ub80c\ud2b8\uc720(\uad6d\uc81c \uc6d0\uc720 \uac00\uaca9\uc758 \ub300\ud45c \uc9c0\ud45c)\uac00 \uc774\ub780 \ubd84\uc7c1\uc73c\ub85c \uc9c0\ub09c\ub2ec \ubc30\ub7f4\ub2f9 \uc57d 115\ub2ec\ub7ec\uae4c\uc9c0 \ub6f0\uc5c8\uc9c0\ub9cc, \uac70\uc2dc \uc5ec\uac74\uc774 \uadfc\ubcf8\uc801\uc73c\ub85c \ub2e4\ub974\ub2e4\ub294 \uc774\uc720\ub2e4. 2022\ub144\uc5d0\ub294 \ud32c\ub370\ubbf9 \uc774\ud6c4 \uc218\uc694 \uae09\uc99d\uc774 \uc778\ud50c\ub808\uc774\uc158\uc744 \ud0a4\uc6e0\uc9c0\ub9cc, \ud604\uc7ac\ub294 \uadf8\ub807\uc9c0 \uc54a\ub2e4\ub294 \ud310\ub2e8\uc774\ub2e4.<\/p>\n

\ud575\uc2ec \uadfc\uac70\ub294 \uc138\uacc4 \uc218\uc694 \ub454\ud654\ub2e4. \uc218\uc694\uac00 \uc57d\ud558\uba74 \uc5d0\ub108\uc9c0 \ube44\uc6a9 \uc0c1\uc2b9\uc774 \uadfc\uc6d0\ubb3c\uac00\ub85c \uc804\uac00\ub418\ub294 \ud3ed\uc774 \uc81c\ud55c\ub41c\ub2e4. \uadfc\uc6d0\ubb3c\uac00(core prices)\ub780 \uc5d0\ub108\uc9c0\u00b7\uc2dd\ub8cc\ud488\ucc98\ub7fc \uac00\uaca9 \ubcc0\ub3d9\uc774 \ud070 \ud56d\ubaa9\uc744 \uc81c\uc678\ud574 \uae30\uc870\uc801\uc778 \ubb3c\uac00 \ud750\ub984\uc744 \ubcf4\uc5ec\uc8fc\ub294 \uc9c0\ud45c\ub2e4. \uc608\ub85c \uc911\uad6d \uc81c\uc870\uc5c5 PMI(\uad6c\ub9e4\uad00\ub9ac\uc790\uc9c0\uc218: 50\uc744 \uae30\uc900\uc73c\ub85c \uc704\uba74 \ud655\uc7a5, \uc544\ub798\uba74 \uc704\ucd95)\uac00 49.8\ub85c \ub0b4\ub824 \uc18c\ud3ed \uc704\ucd95\uc744 \uc2dc\uc0ac\ud588\uace0, \ubbf8\uad6d \uc18c\ub9e4\ud310\ub9e4\ub294 \uc9c0\ub09c\ub2ec \ubcf4\ud569\uc774\uc5c8\ub2e4. \uc774\ub294 2022\ub144 \ucd08\uc758 \uac15\ud55c \uc218\uc694 \ud658\uacbd\uacfc \ub300\ube44\ub41c\ub2e4\uace0 \ud588\ub2e4.<\/p>\n

\uc774\ub7f0 \uc810\uc744 \uac10\uc548\ud558\uba74 \uc720\uac00\uac00 2022\ub144 \uace0\uc810\ucc98\ub7fc \ubc30\ub7f4\ub2f9 130\ub2ec\ub7ec \uc774\uc0c1\uc5d0\uc11c \uc9c0\uc18d\ub420 \uac83\uc774\ub77c\ub294 \uc635\uc158 \uac00\uaca9\uc774 \uacfc\ub300\ud3c9\uac00\ub410\uc744 \uc218 \uc788\ub2e4\uace0 \uc8fc\uc7a5\ud588\ub2e4. \uc635\uc158(options)\uc740 \uc815\ud574\uc9c4 \uac00\uaca9\uc5d0 \uc790\uc0b0\uc744 \uc0ac\uace0\ud314 \uad8c\ub9ac\ub97c \uac70\ub798\ud558\ub294 \ud30c\uc0dd\uc0c1\ud488\uc774\uba70, \u2018\uc9c0\uc18d\uc801 \uc720\uac00 \uace0\uc810\u2019\uc744 \ubc18\uc601\ud55c \uc635\uc158 \uac00\uaca9\uc774 \ud604\uc2e4\ubcf4\ub2e4 \ube44\uc300 \uc218 \uc788\ub2e4\ub294 \uc758\ubbf8\ub2e4. \ucd5c\uc2e0 \ubbf8\uad6d CPI(\uc18c\ube44\uc790\ubb3c\uac00\uc9c0\uc218)\ub294 3.1%\ub85c \uc62c\ub790\uc9c0\ub9cc 2022\ub144 7%\ub97c \ub118\uae30\uba70 \uae09\ub4f1\ud588\ub358 \ub2f9\uc2dc \uac19\uc740 \ud3ed\ubc1c\uc801 \ud750\ub984\uc740 \ubcf4\uc774\uc9c0 \uc54a\ub294\ub2e4\uace0 \ub367\ubd99\uc600\ub2e4. \uc774\uc5d0 \ub530\ub77c \uc5d0\ub108\uc9c0 \uac00\uaca9 \uc0c1\ub2e8\uc744 \uc608\uc0c1\ud558\ub294 \uc804\ub7b5\uc73c\ub85c WTI(\uc11c\ubd80\ud14d\uc0ac\uc2a4\uc0b0\uc6d0\uc720)\ub098 \ube0c\ub80c\ud2b8\uc720 \uc120\ubb3c\uc5d0 \ub300\ud574 \uc678\uac00\uaca9 \ucf5c\uc635\uc158(\ud604\uc7ac \uac00\uaca9\ubcf4\ub2e4 \ud6e8\uc52c \ub192\uc740 \ud589\uc0ac\uac00\uc758 \ub9e4\uc218\uad8c)\uc744 \ub9e4\ub3c4\ud558\ub294 \ubc29\uc548\uc744 \uac70\ub860\ud588\ub2e4.<\/p>\n

\ub610 \uc774\ubc88\uc5d0\ub294 \uc911\uc559\uc740\ud589\uc774 \ub4a4\ucc98\uc9c0\uc9c0 \uc54a\uc558\ub2e4\uace0 \ud3c9\uac00\ud588\ub2e4. \ubbf8 \uc5f0\uc900(Federal Reserve)\uacfc ECB(\uc720\ub7fd\uc911\uc559\uc740\ud589)\ub294 \uc778\ud50c\ub808\uc774\uc158 \uae30\ub300\uac00 \u2018\uace0\uc815\ub418\uc9c0 \uc54a\ub294(unanchored)\u2019 \uc870\uc9d0, \uc989 \uc2dc\uc7a5\u00b7\uac00\uacc4\uac00 \u201c\ubb3c\uac00\uac00 \uacc4\uc18d \uc624\ub97c \uac83\u201d\uc774\ub77c\uace0 \ubbff\uae30 \uc2dc\uc791\ud574 \uae30\ub300\uac00 \ud1b5\uc81c \ubc16\uc73c\ub85c \ubc97\uc5b4\ub098\ub294 \uc2e0\ud638\uac00 \ub098\ud0c0\ub098\uba74 \uc2e0\uc18d\ud788 \ub300\uc751\ud558\uaca0\ub2e4\ub294 \uc785\uc7a5\uc744 \ubd84\uba85\ud788 \ud588\ub2e4\ub294 \uc124\uba85\uc774\ub2e4. \uc774\ub294 \uc218\uc775\ub960\uace1\uc120(yield curve: \ub9cc\uae30\ubcc4 \uad6d\ucc44 \uae08\ub9ac\uc758 \ubc30\uc5f4) \uc911 \ub2e8\uae30 \uad6c\uac04(front end: \ub2e8\uae30\ubb3c \uc911\uc2ec)\uc774 \ube60\ub974\uac8c \ubc18\uc751\ud560 \uc218 \uc788\uc74c\uc744 \ub73b\ud558\uba70, \uc911\uc559\uc740\ud589\uc758 \uc7a5\uae30\uac04 \ubb34\ub300\uc751\uc744 \uc804\uc81c\ub85c \ud55c \ubca0\ud305\uc740 \uc704\ud5d8\ud558\ub2e4\uace0 \uc9c0\uc801\ud588\ub2e4.<\/p>\n

\ub530\ub77c\uc11c 2022\ub144\ucc98\ub7fc \uad11\ubc94\uc704\ud55c \uc6d0\uc790\uc7ac\ub97c \ub9e4\uc218(\ub871)\ud558\uace0 \ucc44\uad8c\uc744 \ub9e4\ub3c4(\uc20f)\ud558\ub294 \uc804\ub7b5\uc744 \uadf8\ub300\ub85c \ubc18\ubcf5\ud558\ub294 \ub370\ub294 \uc2e0\uc911\ud574\uc57c \ud55c\ub2e4\uace0 \ud588\ub2e4. \uc911\uc559\uc740\ud589\uc758 \uacbd\uacc4 \uac15\ud654\uac00 \uc7a5\uae30 \uc778\ud50c\ub808\uc774\uc158 \uae30\ub300\uc5d0 \uc0c1\ub2e8\uc744 \ub9cc\ub4e4 \uc218 \uc788\uc5b4, \ud604\uc7ac \uc218\uc900\uc758 \uc778\ud50c\ub808\uc774\uc158 \uc2a4\uc651(inflation swaps: \ubbf8\ub798 \uc778\ud50c\ub808\uc774\uc158\uc744 \uace0\uc815\uae08\ub9ac\uc640 \uad50\ud658\ud574 \uc778\ud50c\ub808\uc774\uc158 \uc704\ud5d8\uc744 \uac70\ub798\u00b7\ud5e4\uc9c0\ud558\ub294 \uc0c1\ud488)\uc774 \ube44\uc2f8 \ubcf4\uc77c \uc218 \uc788\ub2e4\ub294 \uc8fc\uc7a5\uc774\ub2e4. \uc774\ubc88\uc758 \ud575\uc2ec \ucc28\uc774\ub294 \uc815\ucc45\ub2f9\uad6d\uc774 \uc784\uae08-\ubb3c\uac00 \uc545\uc21c\ud658\uc774 \uc2dc\uc791\ub418\uae30 \uc804\uc5d0 \ucc28\ub2e8\ud558\uaca0\ub2e4\ub294 \uc120\uc81c\uc801 \ud0dc\ub3c4\ub77c\uace0 \uc815\ub9ac\ud588\ub2e4.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

\u201c\uc81c2\uc758 2022 \uc5d0\ub108\uc9c0 \uc1fc\ud06c\u201d \uc62c\uae4c? BNP\ub294 \uc774\ub780\ubc1c \uc720\uac00 \uae09\ub4f1\uc5d0\ub3c4 \uc218\uc694 \ub454\ud654\u00b7\uacf5\uae09 \uc644\ud654\ub85c \ubb3c\uac00 \uc804\uc774 \uc81c\ud55c, \uc911\uc559\uc740\ud589 \uc120\uc81c \ub300\uc751\uc73c\ub85c \uc545\uc21c\ud658 \uac00\ub2a5\uc131 \ub0ae\ub2e4\uace0 \uc9c4\ub2e8.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-44951","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/44951","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=44951"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/44951\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=44951"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=44951"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=44951"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}