{"id":44947,"date":"2026-04-17T19:50:28","date_gmt":"2026-04-17T19:50:28","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr\/uncategorized\/%eb%85%b8%eb%a5%b4%eb%8d%b0%ec%95%84-%ec%95%a0%eb%84%90%eb%a6%ac%ec%8a%a4%ed%8a%b8%eb%93%a4-ecb-%ec%9d%b8%ed%94%8c%eb%a0%88%ec%9d%b4%ec%85%98-%ec%a7%80%ec%86%8d%ec%97%90-6%ec%9b%94%eb%b6%80\/"},"modified":"2026-04-17T19:50:28","modified_gmt":"2026-04-17T19:50:28","slug":"%eb%85%b8%eb%a5%b4%eb%8d%b0%ec%95%84-%ec%95%a0%eb%84%90%eb%a6%ac%ec%8a%a4%ed%8a%b8%eb%93%a4-ecb-%ec%9d%b8%ed%94%8c%eb%a0%88%ec%9d%b4%ec%85%98-%ec%a7%80%ec%86%8d%ec%97%90-6%ec%9b%94%eb%b6%80","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/live-updates\/%eb%85%b8%eb%a5%b4%eb%8d%b0%ec%95%84-%ec%95%a0%eb%84%90%eb%a6%ac%ec%8a%a4%ed%8a%b8%eb%93%a4-ecb-%ec%9d%b8%ed%94%8c%eb%a0%88%ec%9d%b4%ec%85%98-%ec%a7%80%ec%86%8d%ec%97%90-6%ec%9b%94%eb%b6%80\/","title":{"rendered":"\ub178\ub974\ub370\uc544 \uc560\ub110\ub9ac\uc2a4\ud2b8\ub4e4 \u201cECB, \uc778\ud50c\ub808\uc774\uc158 \uc9c0\uc18d\uc5d0 6\uc6d4\ubd80\ud130 \ub124 \ucc28\ub840 25bp\uc529 \uae08\ub9ac \uc778\uc0c1 \uc804\ub9dd\u201d"},"content":{"rendered":"

\uc911\ub3d9 \ud734\uc804 \uc18c\uc2dd\uc5d0\ub3c4 \ubd88\uad6c\ud558\uace0 \ub178\ub974\ub370\uc544(Nordea)\ub294 \uc720\ub7fd\uc911\uc559\uc740\ud589(ECB)\uc774 6\uc6d4\ubd80\ud130 25bp(\ubca0\uc774\uc2dc\uc2a4\ud3ec\uc778\ud2b8\u00b70.25%\ud3ec\uc778\ud2b8)\uc529 4\ud68c \uc5f0\uc18d \uae08\ub9ac \uc778\uc0c1\uc744 \ub2e8\ud589\ud560 \uac83\uc73c\ub85c \uc804\ub9dd\ud588\ub2e4. \uc774\ubc88 \uc804\ub9dd\uc740 \ud734\uc804 \ubc1c\ud45c \uc9c1\uc804\uc5d0 \uc5c5\ub370\uc774\ud2b8\ub410\ub2e4.<\/p>\n

\ud734\uc804\uc740 \uc774 \uacbd\ub85c\uc5d0 \ub300\ud55c \u2018\ud558\ubc29 \uc704\ud5d8(\uc804\ub9dd\uc774 \uc57d\ud574\uc9c8 \uc218 \uc788\ub294 \uc694\uc778)\u2019\uc73c\ub85c \uc5b8\uae09\ub410\uc9c0\ub9cc, \uc804\uccb4 \uc2dc\ub098\ub9ac\uc624\ub294 \uc5ec\uc804\ud788 \uac00\ub2a5\ud558\ub2e4\ub294 \ud3c9\uac00\ub2e4. \uc774 \uacac\ud574\ub294 \uc911\ub3d9\uc5d0\uc11c\uc758 \ucd94\uac00 \ucda9\ub3cc \ud655\ub300\ub97c \uc804\uc81c\ub85c \ud558\uc9c0 \uc54a\ub294\ub2e4.<\/p>\n

Core Inflation And The Rate Path<\/h3>\n

\uadfc\uc6d0\ubb3c\uac00(Core inflation\u00b7\uc5d0\ub108\uc9c0\u00b7\uc2dd\ub8cc\ud488\ucc98\ub7fc \uac00\uaca9 \ubcc0\ub3d9\uc774 \ud070 \ud488\ubaa9\uc744 \uc81c\uc678\ud574 \ubb3c\uac00\uc758 \uae30\uc870\uc801 \ud750\ub984\uc744 \ubcf4\uc5ec\uc8fc\ub294 \uc9c0\ud45c)\uac00 4\ub144 \ub118\uac8c \ubaa9\ud45c\uce58\ub97c \uc6c3\ub3cc\uc558\ub2e4\ub294 \uc810\uc774 \uac15\uc870\ub410\ub2e4. \ub178\ub3d9\uc2dc\uc7a5\uc740 \ud0c0\uc774\ud2b8(tight\u00b7\uad6c\uc778 \ub300\ube44 \uad6c\uc9c1\uc790\uac00 \ubd80\uc871\ud55c \uc0c1\ud0dc)\ud558\uace0, \uacbd\uc81c\ub294 \ud68c\ubcf5\ub825\uc774 \uc788\ub294 \uac83\uc73c\ub85c \ud3c9\uac00\ub3fc \uc778\ud50c\ub808\uc774\uc158(\ubb3c\uac00 \uc0c1\uc2b9) \uc6b0\ub824\uac00 \ub192\ub2e4\ub294 \uc124\uba85\uc774\ub2e4.<\/p>\n

ECB \uc815\ucc45\uacb0\uc815\uae30\uad6c(Governing Council\u00b7ECB\uc758 \uae08\ub9ac \ub4f1 \uc8fc\uc694 \uc815\ucc45\uc744 \uacb0\uc815\ud558\ub294 \uc704\uc6d0\ud68c) \uc704\uc6d0\ub4e4\uc758 \ubc1c\uc5b8\uc73c\ub85c\ub294 \uc5ec\uac74\uc744 \ud3c9\uac00\ud560 \uc2dc\uac04\uc774 \uc788\ub2e4\ub294 \uc2e0\ud638\uac00 \ub098\uc628\ub2e4. \ub3d9\uc2dc\uc5d0 4\uc6d4 \uc778\uc0c1\uc5d0\ub294 \uc120\uc744 \uae0b\uace0, 6\uc6d4 \uc778\uc0c1 \uac00\ub2a5\uc131\uc774 \ub192\ub2e4\ub294 \ucde8\uc9c0\ub85c \ud574\uc11d\ub410\ub2e4.<\/p>\n

\uae08\ub9ac\uace1\uc120(yield curve\u00b7\ub9cc\uae30\ubcc4 \ucc44\uad8c\uae08\ub9ac\uc758 \uad6c\uc870)\uc5d0\uc11c \uc7a5\uae30 \uad6c\uac04\uc740 \uc774\ub7f0 ECB \uc2dc\uac01, \uacac\uc870\ud55c \uc131\uc7a5 \uc804\ub9dd, \uae30\uac04\ud504\ub9ac\ubbf8\uc5c4(term premia\u00b7\uc7a5\uae30\ucc44\ub97c \ubcf4\uc720\ud560 \ub54c \uc694\uad6c\ub418\ub294 \ucd94\uac00 \ubcf4\uc0c1) \uc0c1\uc2b9 \uae30\ub300\uc5d0 \uc758\ud574 \uc9c0\uc9c0\ubc1b\ub294 \uac83\uc73c\ub85c \uc124\uba85\ub410\ub2e4. \uc774\ub294 \uc7a5\uae30 \uae08\ub9ac \ucd94\uac00 \uc0c1\uc2b9\uc73c\ub85c \uc774\uc5b4\uc9c8 \uc218 \uc788\ub2e4\ub294 \ubd84\uc11d\uc774\ub2e4.<\/p>\n

Positioning Along The Yield Curve<\/h3>\n

\ucd5c\uadfc \uc720\ub85c\uc2a4\ud0c0\ud2b8(Eurostat\u00b7EU \ud1b5\uacc4\uae30\uad00) \uc790\ub8cc\ub294 \uc774\ub7ec\ud55c \uad00\uce21\uc5d0 \ud798\uc744 \uc2e4\uc5c8\ub2e4. 2026\ub144 3\uc6d4 \uae30\uc900 \uadfc\uc6d0 \uc778\ud50c\ub808\uc774\uc158\uc774 2.7%\ub85c 2% \ubaa9\ud45c\ub97c \ud06c\uac8c \uc6c3\ub3cc\uc558\ub2e4\ub294 \uac83\uc774\ub2e4. \ub610\ud55c \uc720\ub85c\uc874 \uc2e4\uc5c5\ub960\uc774 \ucd5c\uadfc 6.4%\ub85c \ud558\ub77d\ud574 \uc218\ub144 \ub0b4 \ucd5c\uc800\uce58\ub97c \uae30\ub85d\ud588\ub294\ub370, \uc774\ub294 \ub178\ub3d9\uc2dc\uc7a5 \uae34\ucd95\uc744 \ub73b\ud558\uba70 \uc784\uae08 \uc0c1\uc2b9\uc744 \uc790\uadf9\ud560 \uc218 \uc788\ub2e4\ub294 \ud574\uc11d\uc774\ub2e4. \uc774\ub7f0 \uc218\uce58\ub4e4\uc740 ECB\uac00 \uae34\ucd95(\ud1b5\ud654\uae34\ucd95\u00b7\uae08\ub9ac\ub97c \uc62c\ub9ac\uac70\ub098 \uc720\ub3d9\uc131\uc744 \uc904\uc774\ub294 \uc815\ucc45)\uc744 \ub354 \ubbf8\ub8e8\uae30 \uc5b4\ub835\uac8c \ub9cc\ub4e0\ub2e4\ub294 \ub17c\ub9ac\ub2e4.<\/p>\n

\uc911\ub3d9 \ud734\uc804 \uc18c\uc2dd\uc73c\ub85c \ub2e8\uae30 \ubd88\ud655\uc2e4\uc131\uc740 \uc77c\ubd80 \uc644\ud654\ub410\uc9c0\ub9cc, \ubd84\uc11d\uc758 \ucd08\uc810\uc740 \uae30\uc870\uc801 \ubb3c\uac00 \uc555\ub825\uc5d0 \ub9de\ucdb0\uc838 \uc788\ub2e4. \uc11c\ube44\uc2a4 \ubd80\ubb38 \uac00\uaca9 \uc0c1\uc2b9 \uac19\uc740 \uad6d\ub0b4 \uc694\uc778(\ub0b4\uc0dd\uc801 \ubb3c\uac00 \uc694\uc778)\uc740 \uc9c0\uc815\ud559\uc801 \uae34\uc7a5 \uc774\uc804\ubd80\ud130 \ub204\uc801\ub3fc \uc654\ub2e4\ub294 \ud310\ub2e8\uc774\ub2e4. \ub530\ub77c\uc11c ECB\uc758 \uae08\ub9ac \uc778\uc0c1 \uacbd\ub85c\ub294 \uc678\ubd80 \ubd84\uc7c1\uc5d0 \uc88c\uc6b0\ub418\uc9c0 \uc54a\uc73c\uba70 \uc5ec\uc804\ud788 \uc720\ud6a8\ud558\ub2e4\uace0 \ubd24\ub2e4.<\/p>\n

\uae08\ub9ac\uace1\uc120\uc758 \ub2e8\uae30 \uad6c\uac04\uc5d0\uc11c\ub294 \uc720\ub9ac\ubcf4(Euribor\u00b7\uc720\ub85c\uc874 \uc740\ud589 \uac04 \ub2e8\uae30\uc790\uae08 \uac70\ub798\ub97c \ubc18\uc601\ud558\ub294 \uae30\uc900\uae08\ub9ac) \uc120\ubb3c \uac19\uc740 \uc0c1\ud488\uc73c\ub85c \uae08\ub9ac \uc0c1\uc2b9\uc5d0 \ubca0\ud305\ud558\ub294 \ud3ec\uc9c0\uc158\uc744 \uc81c\uc2dc\ud588\ub2e4. 2026\ub144 \ud558\ubc18\uae30\uc640 2027\ub144 \ucd08 \uc120\ubb3c \uacc4\uc57d\uc744 \ub9e4\ub3c4(\uc120\ubb3c \ub9e4\ub3c4\ub294 \uae08\ub9ac \uc0c1\uc2b9\u00b7\ucc44\uad8c\uac00\uaca9 \ud558\ub77d\uc5d0 \uc720\ub9ac)\ud558\ub294 \ubc29\uc2dd\uc774 \uc5b8\uae09\ub410\ub2e4. \ub610\ud55c \uc774\uc790\uc728\uc2a4\uc651(interest rate swaps\u00b7\ubcc0\ub3d9\uae08\ub9ac\uc640 \uace0\uc815\uae08\ub9ac\ub97c \uad50\ud658\ud558\ub294 \ud30c\uc0dd\uc0c1\ud488)\uc5d0\uc11c \uace0\uc815\uae08\ub9ac\ub97c \uc9c0\uae09(pay fixed\u00b7\uae08\ub9ac \uc0c1\uc2b9 \uc2dc \uc720\ub9ac)\ud558\ub294 \uad6c\uc870\ub3c4 \ub300\uc548\uc73c\ub85c \uc81c\uc2dc\ub410\ub2e4.<\/p>\n

\uc7a5\uae30 \uae08\ub9ac\ub3c4 \uc911\uc559\uc740\ud589\uc758 \ub9e4\ud30c\uc801(hawkish\u00b7\ubb3c\uac00 \uc5b5\uc81c\ub97c \uc704\ud574 \uae08\ub9ac \uc778\uc0c1\uc5d0 \uc801\uadf9\uc801\uc778) \uae30\uc870\uc640 \uacac\uc870\ud55c \uacbd\uae30 \uc778\uc2dd\uc774 \ubc18\uc601\ub418\uba74\uc11c \uc0c1\uc2b9\ud560 \uc218 \uc788\ub2e4\uace0 \ubd24\ub2e4. \uc774\uc5d0 \ub530\ub77c \ub3c5\uc77c \uad6d\ucc44 \uc120\ubb3c(\ubd84\ud2b8\u00b7Bund)\ucc98\ub7fc \uc7a5\uae30 \uad6d\ucc44 \uc120\ubb3c\uc5d0\uc11c \uc57d\uc138 \uc804\ub7b5(\uac00\uaca9 \ud558\ub77d\uc5d0 \ubca0\ud305)\uc744 \uace0\ub824\ud560 \uc218 \uc788\ub2e4\ub294 \uc124\uba85\uc774\ub2e4. \uc608\ub97c \ub4e4\uc5b4 \ubd84\ud2b8 \uc120\ubb3c \ud48b\uc635\uc158(put option\u00b7\uc815\ud574\uc9c4 \uac00\uaca9\uc5d0 \ud314 \uad8c\ub9ac)\uc744 \ub9e4\uc218\ud558\uba74 \ud5a5\ud6c4 \uc7a5\uae30\ucc44 \uac00\uaca9 \ud558\ub77d\uc5d0 \ub300\ube44\ud558\ub294 \ud6a8\uacfc\uac00 \uc788\ub2e4.<\/p>\n

VT Markets \uc2e4\uacc4\uc88c \uac1c\uc124<\/a>\u00a0\ubc0f\u00a0\uac70\ub798 \uc2dc\uc791<\/a><\/b><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

\u201c\ud734\uc804\uc5d0\ub3c4 ECB \ub9e4\ud30c \uace0\uc090?\u201d \ub178\ub974\ub370\uc544\ub294 6\uc6d4\ubd80\ud130 25bp\uc529 4\ud68c \uc5f0\uc18d \uc778\uc0c1\uc744 \uc804\ub9dd. \uadfc\uc6d0\ubb3c\uac00\u00b7\uace0\uc6a9 \uac15\uc138\ub85c \uc7a5\ub2e8\uae30 \uae08\ub9ac \uc0c1\uc2b9 \uac00\ub2a5, \uc720\ub9ac\ubcf4\u00b7\ubd84\ud2b8 \uc57d\uc138 \ud3ec\uc9c0\uc158 \uc81c\uc2dc.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-44947","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/44947","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=44947"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/44947\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=44947"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=44947"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=44947"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}