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\uc218\uc900(\uace0\uae08\ub9ac)\uc774 \uc774\uc5b4\uc9c8 \uac00\ub2a5\uc131\ub3c4 \ud604\uc2e4\uc801\uc73c\ub85c \uac70\ub860\ub41c\ub2e4.<\/p>\n<h3>\uc27d\uac8c \uaebe\uc774\uc9c0 \uc54a\ub294 \ubb3c\uac00\uc640 \uace0\uae08\ub9ac<\/h3>\n<p>\uc774\ubc88 \uace0\uc6a9\uc9c0\ud45c\uc640 \ud568\uaed8, 3\uc6d4 \uc18c\ube44\uc790\ubb3c\uac00\uc9c0\uc218(CPI\u00b7\uac00\uacc4\uac00 \uc0ac\ub294 \uc0c1\ud488\u00b7\uc11c\ube44\uc2a4 \uac00\uaca9\uc758 \ud3c9\uade0 \ubcc0\ub3d9\uc744 \ubcf4\uc5ec\uc8fc\ub294 \ub300\ud45c \ubb3c\uac00 \uc9c0\ud45c)\uac00 3.6%\ub85c \ub0b4\ub824\uc624\uc9c0 \uc54a\uc740 \uc810\uc740 2025\ub144 \ub0b4\ub0b4 \uc774\uc5b4\uc84c\ub358 \uacbd\uae30 \uac15\uc138\uc640 \ube44\uc2b7\ud55c \ud750\ub984\uc744 \ubcf4\uc5ec\uc900\ub2e4. \ub2f9\uc2dc\uc5d0\ub3c4 \ubb3c\uac00\uac00 \ucda9\ubd84\ud788 \uc2dd\uc9c0 \uc54a\uc73c\uba74\uc11c \uc2dc\uc7a5\uc740 \uae08\ub9ac \uc778\ud558(\uae30\uc900\uae08\ub9ac\ub97c \ub0b4\ub9ac\ub294 \uac83) \uae30\ub300\ub97c \uc5ec\ub7ec \ucc28\ub840 \ubbf8\ub904\uc57c \ud588\ub2e4. \ud604\uc7ac \uc5f0\ubc29\uae30\uae08\uae08\ub9ac \uc120\ubb3c(Fed funds futures\u00b7\ubbf8\uad6d \uae30\uc900\uae08\ub9ac \uacbd\ub85c\uc5d0 \ub300\ud55c \uc2dc\uc7a5 \uae30\ub300\ub97c \ub2f4\uc740 \ud30c\uc0dd\uc0c1\ud488)\uc740 \uc774\ub7f0 \ubcc0\ud654\ub97c \ubc18\uc601\ud574 2026\ub144 \uae08\ub9ac \uc778\ud558\ub97c 1\ud68c\ub9cc \ubc18\uc601\ud558\uace0 \uc788\ub2e4. \ubd88\uacfc \uc9c0\ub09c\ub2ec\uc5d0\ub294 3\ud68c \uc778\ud558\ub97c \uae30\ub300\ud588\ub2e4.<\/p>\n<p>\uc8fc\uac00\uc9c0\uc218 \ud30c\uc0dd\uc0c1\ud488(\uc8fc\uac00\uc9c0\uc218\uc758 \uc6c0\uc9c1\uc784\uc5d0 \uc5f0\ub3d9\ub418\ub294 \uc120\ubb3c\u00b7\uc635\uc158 \ub4f1) \uac70\ub798\uc790 \uc785\uc7a5\uc5d0\uc11c\ub294 \ubcc0\ub3d9\uc131\uc774 \ucee4\uc9c0\uace0 \ud558\ub77d \uc555\ub825\uc774 \ucee4\uc9c8 \uc218 \uc788\ub294 \uad6c\uac04\uc744 \uc2dc\uc0ac\ud55c\ub2e4. \uc2dc\uc7a5\uc774 \u2018\uace0\uae08\ub9ac\uc758 \uc7a5\uae30\ud654(higher for longer\u00b7\uae08\ub9ac\uac00 \uc624\ub798 \ub192\uc740 \uc218\uc900\uc744 \uc720\uc9c0\ud558\ub294 \ud750\ub984)\u2019\ub97c \ubc1b\uc544\ub4e4\uc774\ub294 \uacfc\uc815\uc5d0\uc11c VIX(\uc2dc\uce74\uace0\uc635\uc158\uac70\ub798\uc18c \ubcc0\ub3d9\uc131\uc9c0\uc218\u00b7S&#038;P500 \uc635\uc158 \uac00\uaca9\uc73c\ub85c \uacc4\uc0b0\ud55c \uc2dc\uc7a5 \ubd88\uc548 \uc9c0\ud45c)\uac00 \ud604\uc7ac 15 \ubd80\uadfc\uc5d0\uc11c \ub354 \ub192\uc740 \uc218\uc900\uc744 \uc2dc\ud5d8\ud560 \uac00\ub2a5\uc131\uc744 \uc5fc\ub450\uc5d0 \ub458 \ud544\uc694\uac00 \uc788\ub2e4. \uc2e4\ubb34\uc801\uc73c\ub85c\ub294 S&#038;P500 \ub610\ub294 \ub098\uc2a4\ub2e5100\uc5d0 \ub300\ud55c \ubcf4\ud638\uc6a9 \ud48b\uc635\uc158(put option\u00b7\uc815\ud574\uc9c4 \uac00\uaca9\uc5d0 \ud314 \uad8c\ub9ac)\uc744 \ub9e4\uc218\ud574 \uae30\uc874 \ub9e4\uc218(\ub871) \ud3ec\uc9c0\uc158(\uac00\uaca9 \uc0c1\uc2b9\uc5d0 \ubca0\ud305\ud55c \ubcf4\uc720)\uc744 \ubc29\uc5b4(\ud5e4\uc9c0\u00b7\uac00\uaca9 \ubcc0\ub3d9 \uc704\ud5d8\uc744 \uc904\uc774\ub294 \uac70\ub798)\ud558\ub294 \ubc29\ubc95\uc774 \uc788\ub2e4.<\/p>\n<p>\uae08\ub9ac \ud30c\uc0dd\uc0c1\ud488(\uae08\ub9ac \uc218\uc900\uc774\ub098 \uae08\ub9ac \ubcc0\ud654\ub97c \uae30\ucd08\ub85c \ud558\ub294 \uc120\ubb3c\u00b7\uc2a4\uc651\u00b7\uc635\uc158 \ub4f1)\uc5d0\uc11c\ub294 \uae08\ub9ac \uc778\ud558\uac00 \ub354 \uc801\uac8c, \ub354 \ub2a6\uac8c \uc774\ub904\uc9c4\ub2e4\ub294 \ucabd\uc5d0 \ubca0\ud305\ud558\ub294 \uc804\ub7b5\uc774 \uc720\ud6a8\ud558\ub2e4. \uc774\ub97c \uc704\ud574 2026\ub144 12\uc6d4 \ub9cc\uae30 SOFR \uc120\ubb3c(\ub2f4\ubcf4\ubd80 \uc775\uc77c\ubb3c \uc870\ub2ec\uae08\ub9ac\u00b7\ubbf8\uad6d \ub2e8\uae30 \uae30\uc900\uae08\ub9ac \uc5ed\ud560\uc744 \ud558\ub294 SOFR\uc5d0 \uc5f0\ub3d9\ub41c \uc120\ubb3c)\uc744 \ub9e4\ub3c4(\uac00\uaca9 \ud558\ub77d\uc5d0 \uc218\uc775)\ud560 \uc218 \uc788\ub2e4. \uc2dc\uc7a5\uc774 \uc5f0\ub9d0\uae4c\uc9c0 \ud070 \ud3ed\uc758 \ud1b5\ud654\uc644\ud654(\uae08\ub9ac 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\uacbd\uae30\uc5d0\uc11c \uc0c1\ub300\uc801\uc73c\ub85c \uc720\ub9ac\ud55c \uc5c5\uc885\uc5d0\uc11c\ub294 \ucf5c\uc635\uc158(call option\u00b7\uc815\ud574\uc9c4 \uac00\uaca9\uc5d0 \uc0b4 \uad8c\ub9ac) \ub9e4\uc218 \uae30\ud68c\ub97c \uac80\ud1a0\ud560 \uc218 \uc788\ub2e4.<\/p>\n<h3>\uc5c5\uc885 \ud3ec\uc9c0\uc154\ub2dd \ubc0f \uc635\uc158 \uc544\uc774\ub514\uc5b4<\/h3>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>\uc2e4\uc5c5\uc218\ub2f9 20.7\ub9cc\uac74, \uc608\uc0c1 \ud558\ud68c\u2026\uace0\uc6a9 \uacac\uc870\u00b7CPI 3.6%\ub85c \u2018\uace0\uae08\ub9ac \uc7a5\uae30\ud654\u2019 \uc6b0\ub824 \uc7ac\uc810\ud654. \uae08\ub9ac\uc778\ud558 \uae30\ub300\ub294 2026\ub144 1\ud68c\ub85c \ucd95\uc18c, VIX \uc0c1\uc2b9\u00b7\uc99d\uc2dc \ubcc0\ub3d9\uc131 \ud655\uc0b0 \uacbd\uacc4. \uc635\uc158\u00b7SOFR \uc804\ub7b5 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