S&P500 \uc9c0\uc218\ub294 3\uc6d4 30\uc77c \uae30\ub85d\ud55c 8\uac1c\uc6d4 \uc800\uc810 6,343.7\uc5d0\uc11c 11\uac70\ub798\uc77c \ub9cc\uc5d0 10% \ub118\uac8c \ubc18\ub4f1\ud574 7,000\uc120\uc744 \uc6c3\ub3cc\uba70 \ub9c8\uac10\ud588\ub2e4. \uc885\uac00\ub294 0.80% \uc624\ub978 7,023\uc73c\ub85c, \uc0ac\uc0c1 \ucd5c\uace0\uce58\ub97c \ub2e4\uc2dc \uc37c\ub2e4.<\/p>\n
\uacfc\uac70 \ube44\uc2b7\ud55c \uc0ac\ub840\uc5d0\uc11c \ud3c9\uade0\uc801\uc778 \ud558\ub77d \ucda9\uaca9\uc740 15\uc77c\uac00\ub7c9 \uc774\uc5b4\uc9c0\uace0, \uc644\uc804\ud55c \ud68c\ubcf5\uc5d0\ub294 \ucd94\uac00\ub85c 15~20\uc77c\uc774 \ub354 \uac78\ub9ac\ub294 \uacbd\uc6b0\uac00 \ub9ce\ub2e4. \uc774\ubc88\uc5d0\ub294 \ud558\ub77d \ud3ed\uc774 \uc5ed\uc0ac\uc801 \ube44\uad50\uc5d0\uc11c 75\ud37c\uc13c\ud0c0\uc77c(\uacfc\uac70 \uc0ac\ub840\ub97c \ud06c\uae30 \uc21c\uc73c\ub85c \ub193\uc558\uc744 \ub54c \uc0c1\uc704 25% \uc218\uc900)\ubcf4\ub2e4 \uc57d\uac04 \ub354 \ucef8\uace0, \uc800\uc810\uc740 \ud3c9\uade0\ubcf4\ub2e4 \uc57d \uc77c\uc8fc\uc77c \ub2a6\uac8c \ud615\uc131\ub410\uc73c\uba70, \ud68c\ubcf5\uc740 \ud3c9\uade0\ubcf4\ub2e4 \uc57d \uc77c\uc8fc\uc77c \ube60\ub974\uac8c \uc9c4\ud589\ub410\ub2e4.<\/p>\n
\ub098\uc2a4\ub2e5 \uc9c0\uc218\ub294 1.59% \uc0c1\uc2b9\ud574 \uc0ac\uc0c1 \ucd5c\uace0\uce58\ub97c \uacbd\uc2e0\ud588\uace0, \u2018\ub9e4\uadf8\ub2c8\ud53c\uc13c\ud2b8 7(Mag 7, \ubbf8\uad6d \ub300\ud615 \uae30\uc220\uc8fc 7\uac1c \uc885\ubaa9)\u2019\uc740 2.48% \uc62c\ub790\ub2e4. \uc5c5\uc885\ubcc4\ub85c\ub294 \uc790\ub3d9\ucc28 6.59%, \uc18c\ud504\ud2b8\uc6e8\uc5b4 4.29%, \uae30\uc220 \ud558\ub4dc\uc6e8\uc5b4 1.57%, \uc18c\ube44\uc790 \uc11c\ube44\uc2a4 1.42% \uc0c1\uc2b9\ud588\ub2e4.<\/p>\n
\uacbd\uae30\ubbfc\uac10\uc8fc(\uacbd\uae30 \ud750\ub984\uc5d0 \ub530\ub77c \uc2e4\uc801\uc774 \ud06c\uac8c \ud754\ub4e4\ub9ac\ub294 \uc5c5\uc885) \uc911\uc5d0\uc11c\ub3c4 \uae30\uc5c5 \uc124\ube44\ud22c\uc790\uc640 \uc5f0\uad00\ub41c \uc885\ubaa9\ub4e4\uc774 \ubd80\uc9c4\ud588\ub2e4. \uc790\ubcf8\uc7ac(\uae30\uacc4\u00b7\uc124\ube44 \ub4f1 \uc0b0\uc5c5\uc6a9 \uc81c\ud488) -1.73%, \uc18c\uc7ac(\uae08\uc18d\u00b7\ud654\ud559 \ub4f1 \uc6d0\uc790\uc7ac \uad00\ub828) -1.29%\uc600\ub2e4. \uc740\ud589 \uc2e4\uc801\uc774 \uc8fc\uac00\ub97c \ub5a0\ubc1b\uce58\uae30\ub3c4 \ud588\ub2e4. \ubaa8\uac74\uc2a4\ud0e0\ub9ac\ub294 4.52%, \ubc45\ud06c\uc624\ube0c\uc544\uba54\ub9ac\uce74\ub294 0.97% \uc0c1\uc2b9\ud588\uc73c\uba70, \ucd5c\uadfc \uc5d0\ub108\uc9c0 \uac00\uaca9 \uc0c1\uc2b9\ub3c4 \ud568\uaed8 \uac70\ub860\ub410\ub2e4.<\/p>\n
\uc9c0\ub09c\ud574 3\uc6d4 \uc9c0\uc815\ud559 \ub9ac\uc2a4\ud06c\ub85c \uae09\ub77d\ud588\ub358 \uad6d\uba74\uc744 \ub3cc\uc544\ubcf4\uba74, \ube60\ub978 \ubc18\ub4f1\uc758 \uc804\ud615\uc774 \ud655\uc778\ub41c\ub2e4. S&P500\uc774 8\uac1c\uc6d4 \uc800\uc810\uc5d0\uc11c 10% \uae09\ubc18\ub4f1\ud574 7,000\uc120\uc744 \uc7ac\ub3cc\ud30c\ud55c \ud750\ub984\uc740 \u2018\ud070 \ud3ed\uc758 \ud558\ub77d(\ub525\u00b7dip, \ub2e8\uae30 \uae09\ub77d \uad6c\uac04)\u2019\uc5d0\uc11c \ub9e4\uc218\ud558\ub294 \uc804\ub7b5\uc758 \ucc38\uace0 \uc0ac\ub840\uac00 \ub410\ub2e4. \ucda9\uaca9\uc774 \ud3c9\uade0\ubcf4\ub2e4 \uae4a\ub354\ub77c\ub3c4 \uc5ed\uc0ac\uc801 \ud3c9\uade0\ubcf4\ub2e4 \ud6e8\uc52c \ube60\ub978 \ud68c\ubcf5\uc774 \ub4a4\ub530\ub97c \uc218 \uc788\ub2e4\ub294 \uc758\ubbf8\ub2e4.<\/p>\n
\ud604\uc7ac \ubcc0\ub3d9\uc131\uc774 \ub0ae\uc740 \uac00\uc6b4\ub370(VIX\uac00 14 \ubd80\uadfc\uc5d0\uc11c \uc6c0\uc9c1\uc784. VIX\ub294 S&P500 \uc635\uc158 \uac00\uaca9\uc73c\ub85c \uacc4\uc0b0\ud558\ub294 \u2018\uacf5\ud3ec\uc9c0\uc218\u2019\ub85c, \uc2dc\uc7a5\uc774 \uc608\uc0c1\ud558\ub294 \ubcc0\ub3d9\uc131 \uc218\uc900\uc744 \ub73b\ud568) \uc9c0\uc815\ud559\uc801 \ucda9\ub3cc\uc774 \uac11\uc790\uae30 \ucee4\uc9c8 \uacbd\uc6b0 \uc774\ub97c \uae30\ud68c\ub85c \ubcfc \uc218 \uc788\ub2e4\ub294 \uc2dc\uac01\uc774 \ub098\uc628\ub2e4. \uc774\uc5d0 \ub530\ub77c SPX(=S&P500 \uc9c0\uc218 \uc635\uc158), QQQ(\ub098\uc2a4\ub2e5100 \ucd94\uc885 ETF)\uc5d0\uc11c \uc678\uac00\uaca9(out-of-the-money, \ud604\uc7ac \uc9c0\uc218\/\uac00\uaca9\ubcf4\ub2e4 \uba40\ub9ac \ub5a8\uc5b4\uc9c4 \ud589\uc0ac\uac00\uc758 \uc635\uc158) \ud48b \uc2a4\ud504\ub808\ub4dc(\ud48b\uc635\uc158 2\uac1c\ub97c \uc11c\ub85c \ub2e4\ub978 \ud589\uc0ac\uac00\ub85c \ud568\uaed8 \ub9e4\ub9e4\ud574 \uc190\uc775 \ubc94\uc704\ub97c \uc81c\ud55c\ud558\ub294 \uc804\ub7b5)\ub97c \ub9e4\ub3c4\ud574 \ubcc0\ub3d9\uc131 \ub9e4\ub3c4 \uc804\ub7b5\uc744 \ucde8\ud558\uc790\ub294 \uc81c\uc548\uc774\ub2e4. 2025\ub144 \ubd04\uc758 \uad50\ud6c8\uc740 \uacf5\ud3ec\uac00 \ube68\ub9ac \uac00\ub77c\uc549\uace0, \ub0b4\uc7ac\ubcc0\ub3d9\uc131(implied volatility, \uc635\uc158 \uac00\uaca9\uc5d0 \ubc18\uc601\ub41c \u2018\uc2dc\uc7a5 \uc608\uc0c1 \ubcc0\ub3d9\uc131\u2019)\ub3c4 \uc608\uc0c1\ubcf4\ub2e4 \ub354 \ube60\ub974\uac8c \ub0b4\ub824\uac08 \uc218 \uc788\ub2e4\ub294 \uc810\uc774\ub2e4.<\/p>\n
\uc9c0\ub09c\ud574 \ubc18\ub4f1 \uc18d\ub3c4\ub294 \ub2e8\uc21c \ud604\ubb3c(\uc8fc\uc2dd) \ub9e4\uc218\ubcf4\ub2e4 \uc635\uc158\uc744 \ud65c\uc6a9\ud574 \ub808\ubc84\ub9ac\uc9c0(\uc801\uc740 \uc790\uae08\uc73c\ub85c \ub354 \ud070 \uac00\uaca9 \ub178\ucd9c\uc744 \uc5bb\ub294 \ud6a8\uacfc)\ub85c \uc0c1\uc2b9\uc744 \ub178\ub9b4 \ud544\uc694\uac00 \uc788\uc74c\uc744 \ubcf4\uc5ec\uc900\ub2e4. \u2018\ub9e4\uadf8 7\u2019\uc774 \uc8fc\ub3c4\ud55c \uac15\ud55c \ubc18\ub4f1\uc744 \ub530\ub77c\uac00\ub824\uba74 \ub098\uc2a4\ub2e5100\uc5d0\uc11c \ub2e8\uae30 \ucf5c \uc2a4\ud504\ub808\ub4dc(\ucf5c\uc635\uc158 2\uac1c\ub97c \ub2e4\ub978 \ud589\uc0ac\uac00\ub85c \uad6c\uc131\ud574 \ube44\uc6a9\uacfc \uc218\uc775\uc744 \uc81c\ud55c\ud558\ub294 \uc804\ub7b5) \ub9e4\uc218\uac00 \uc120\ud638\ub41c\ub2e4\ub294 \ud310\ub2e8\uc774\ub2e4. 11\uc77c \uae09\ub4f1 \uc0ac\ub840\ub294 \ubc14\ub2e5\uc774 \ud615\uc131\ub41c \ub4ef \ubcf4\uc77c \ub54c \ud655\uc778\uc744 \uae30\ub2e4\ub9b4 \uc2dc\uac04\uc774 \ub9ce\uc9c0 \uc54a\ub2e4\ub294 \uc810\uc744 \uc2dc\uc0ac\ud55c\ub2e4.<\/p>\n
\uc774 \uc804\ub7b5\uc740 2026\ub144 3\uc6d4 CPI(\uc18c\ube44\uc790\ubb3c\uac00\uc9c0\uc218) \uc0c1\uc2b9\ub960\uc774 3.1%\ub85c \ub2e4\uc18c \ub192\uac8c \ub098\uc654\uc74c\uc5d0\ub3c4(\ubb3c\uac00\uac00 \uc608\uc0c1\ubcf4\ub2e4 \ub192\uc544 \uae08\ub9ac \ubd80\ub2f4\uc774 \ucee4\uc9c8 \uc218 \uc788\uc74c\uc744 \uc758\ubbf8) \ud604\uc7ac \uc2dc\uc7a5 \ud658\uacbd\uc5d0\uc11c \uc5ec\uc804\ud788 \ud798\uc744 \uc5bb\ub294\ub2e4. \uae30\uc220 \uc139\ud130\ub294 \uc62c\ud574 1\ubd84\uae30\uc5d0\ub3c4 \uc591\ud638\ud55c \uc2e4\uc801\uc744 \uc774\uc5b4\uac00\uba70 \uc2dc\uc7a5 \uc8fc\ub3c4 \uc5c5\uc885 \uc9c0\uc704\ub97c \uc720\uc9c0\ud558\uace0 \uc788\ub2e4\ub294 \ud574\uc11d\uc774\ub2e4. 2025\ub144\uc5d0\ub294 \uc740\ud589\uc758 \uac15\ud55c \uc2e4\uc801\uc774 \ubc18\ub4f1\uc758 \u2018\ubc84\ud300\ubaa9(backstop, \ud558\ub77d\uc744 \uc644\ucda9\ud558\ub294 \uc9c0\uc9c0 \uc694\uc778)\u2019\uc774 \ub410\ub358 \uac83\ucc98\ub7fc, \uc9c0\uae08\uc740 \uae30\uc220\uc8fc\uc758 \ud380\ub354\uba58\ud138(\uae30\ucd08 \uccb4\ub825: \uc2e4\uc801\u00b7\uc131\uc7a5\uc131\u00b7\uc7ac\ubb34 \uac74\uc804\uc131)\uc774 \ube44\uc2b7\ud55c \uc5ed\ud560\uc744 \ud55c\ub2e4\ub294 \ud3c9\uac00\ub2e4.<\/p>\n
\ub610 2025\ub144 \ub7a0\ub9ac\uc5d0\uc11c\ub294 \uc18c\ube44 \uacbd\uae30\ubbfc\uac10\uc8fc\uac00 \uc0b0\uc5c5 \uc911\uc2ec \uc5c5\uc885\ubcf4\ub2e4 \uac15\ud588\ub358 \u2018\ucc28\ubcc4\ud654(\uc139\ud130\ubcc4 \uc131\uacfc \uaca9\ucc28)\u2019\uac00 \ub69c\ub837\ud588\ub2e4. \ub530\ub77c\uc11c \uc870\uc815 \uad6d\uba74\uc5d0\uc11c\ub294 \ud2b9\uc815 ETF \uc635\uc158\uc744 \ud65c\uc6a9\ud574 \uc18c\uc7ac(XLB)\ubcf4\ub2e4 \uacbd\uae30\uc18c\ube44\uc7ac(XLY)\ub97c \uc120\ud638\ud558\ub294 \uc811\uadfc\uc774 \uc81c\uc2dc\ub41c\ub2e4. \uc774\ub807\uac8c \ud558\uba74 \ud68c\ubcf5 \uad6c\uac04\uc5d0\uc11c \ubca0\ud0c0\uac00 \ub192\uc740(\uc2dc\uc7a5 \ub300\ube44 \uac00\uaca9 \ubcc0\ub3d9\uc774 \ud070) \uc5c5\uc885\uc758 \uc131\uaca9\uc744 \uaca8\ub0e5\ud560 \uc218 \uc788\uc73c\uba70, \ubc18\ub4f1\uc774 \uacbd\uc81c \uc804\ubc18\uc5d0 \uace0\ub974\uac8c \ud37c\uc9c0\uc9c0 \uc54a\ub294 \uacbd\uc6b0\uc5d0\ub3c4 \ub300\uc751\uc774 \uac00\ub2a5\ud558\ub2e4.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
S&P500, 8\uac1c\uc6d4 \uc800\uc810\uc11c 11\uc77c \ub9cc\uc5d0 10% \uae09\ubc18\ub4f1\ud574 7,023 \uc0ac\uc0c1\ucd5c\uace0. \ud68c\ubcf5\uc740 \ud3c9\uade0\ubcf4\ub2e4 \ube68\ub790\uace0, \ub098\uc2a4\ub2e5\u00b7\ub9e4\uadf87 \uc8fc\ub3c4. \uc800\ubcc0\ub3d9\uc131 \uc18d \uc635\uc158 \uc2a4\ud504\ub808\ub4dc\ub85c \ubcc0\ub3d9\uc131 \ub9e4\ub3c4\u00b7\ucf5c \ub808\ubc84\ub9ac\uc9c0 \uc804\ub7b5 \ubd80\uac01.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-44806","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/44806","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=44806"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/44806\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=44806"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=44806"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=44806"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}