\ubbf8\uad6d \ub2ec\ub7ec \uc778\ub371\uc2a4(DXY\u00b7\uc8fc\uc694 6\uac1c \ud1b5\ud654 \ub300\ube44 \ub2ec\ub7ec \uac00\uce58\ub97c \ub098\ud0c0\ub0b4\ub294 \uc9c0\uc218)\ub294 98.00\uc744 \uc18c\ud3ed \uc6c3\ub3c4\ub294 \uc218\uc900\uc5d0\uc11c \uac70\ub798\ub410\ub2e4. \uc774\ub294 2\uc6d4 28\uc77c \uc911\ub3d9 \uc804\uc7c1\uc774 \uc2dc\uc791\ub41c \uc774\ud6c4 \ucd5c\uc800 \uc218\uc900\uc774\ub2e4. \uc774\ubc88 \uc8fc \ub2ec\ub7ec\ub294 G8(\uc8fc\uc694 8\uac1c\uad6d) \ud1b5\ud654 \uac00\uc6b4\ub370 \uc131\uacfc\uac00 \uac00\uc7a5 \ubd80\uc9c4\ud588\ub2e4.<\/p>\n
DXY\ub294 \uc774\ubc88 \uc8fc\uc5d0\ub9cc \uc57d 1% \ud558\ub77d\ud588\uace0, \uc9c0\ub09c\uc8fc \ud734\uc804 \ubc1c\ud45c \uc774\ud6c4\ub85c\ub294 2% \uc774\uc0c1 \ub5a8\uc5b4\uc84c\ub2e4. \uc2dc\uc7a5\uc740 \ubbf8\uad6d\uacfc \uc774\ub780\uc758 \ud3c9\ud654 \ud611\uc0c1\uc774 \uc870\ub9cc\uac04 \uc7ac\uac1c\ub420 \uac00\ub2a5\uc131\uc5d0 \uc8fc\ubaa9\ud588\ub2e4.<\/p>\n
\ud654\uc694\uc77c \ub3c4\ub110\ub4dc \ud2b8\ub7fc\ud504 \ubbf8\uad6d \ub300\ud1b5\ub839\uc740 \ub274\uc695\ud3ec\uc2a4\ud2b8 \uc778\ud130\ubdf0\uc5d0\uc11c \uc774\ub780\uacfc\uc758 \ud611\uc0c1\uc774 \uace7 \uc7ac\uac1c\ub420 \uc218 \uc788\ub2e4\uace0 \ub9d0\ud588\ub2e4. \uc774\ub780\uc740 \ubcc4\ub2e4\ub978 \uc5b8\uae09\uc744 \ud558\uc9c0 \uc54a\uc558\uace0, \uc548\ud1a0\ub2c8\uc6b0 \uad6c\ud14c\ud750\uc2a4 \uc720\uc5d4 \uc0ac\ubb34\ucd1d\uc7a5\uc740 \ud611\uc0c1\uc774 \uc774\ubc88 \uc8fc \uc7ac\uac1c\ub420 \uac00\ub2a5\uc131\uc774 \ud06c\ub2e4\uace0 \ubc1d\ud614\ub2e4.<\/p>\n
3\uc6d4 \ubbf8\uad6d \uc0dd\uc0b0\uc790\ubb3c\uac00\uc9c0\uc218(PPI\u00b7\uae30\uc5c5\ub4e4\uc774 \ud310\ub9e4\ud558\ub294 \uc7ac\ud654\u00b7\uc11c\ube44\uc2a4\uc758 \ucd9c\uace0 \ub2e8\uacc4 \uac00\uaca9 \ubcc0\ud654\ub97c \ubcf4\uc5ec\uc8fc\ub294 \ubb3c\uac00 \uc9c0\ud45c)\uc5d0\uc11c \uacf5\uc7a5 \ucd9c\uace0 \ub2e8\uacc4\uc758 \uc5f0\uac04 \ubb3c\uac00\uc0c1\uc2b9\ub960\uc740 2\uc6d4 3.4%\uc5d0\uc11c 4.0%\ub85c \uc62c\ub790\ub2e4. \ub2e4\ub9cc \uc2dc\uc7a5 \uc608\uc0c1\uce58(4.6%)\ub294 \ubc11\ub3cc\uc558\ub2e4.<\/p>\n
\uc2dd\ud488\uacfc \uc5d0\ub108\uc9c0\ub97c \uc81c\uc678\ud55c \uadfc\uc6d0 PPI(\uac00\uaca9 \ubcc0\ub3d9\uc774 \ud070 \ud488\ubaa9\uc744 \ube7c \ubb3c\uac00 \ud750\ub984\uc744 \ub354 \uc798 \ubcf4\uc5ec\uc8fc\ub294 \uc9c0\ud45c)\ub294 \uc804\ub144 \ub300\ube44 3.8%\ub85c 2\uc6d4\uacfc \uac19\uc558\ub2e4. \uc2dc\uc7a5 \uc804\ub9dd\uce58(4.2%)\ubcf4\ub2e4 \ub0ae\uc558\ub2e4.<\/p>\n
\uc9c0\ub09c\ud574 \uac19\uc740 \uc2dc\uae30\uc778 2025\ub144 4\uc6d4 DXY\uac00 98.00\uae4c\uc9c0 \ubc00\ub838\ub358 \ud750\ub984\uc740 \ucd5c\uadfc \uc7a5\uc138\ub97c \uc774\ud574\ud558\ub294 \ub370 \ucc38\uace0\uac00 \ub41c\ub2e4. \ub2f9\uc2dc\uc5d0\ub294 \ud3c9\ud654 \uae30\ub300\uc5d0 \ub530\ub978 \uc704\ud5d8\uc790\uc0b0 \uc120\ud638(\u2018\ub9ac\uc2a4\ud06c\uc628\u2019\u00b7\uc548\uc804\uc790\uc0b0\ubcf4\ub2e4 \uc8fc\uc2dd \ub4f1 \uc704\ud5d8\uc790\uc0b0\uc744 \uc120\ud638\ud558\ub294 \ubd84\uc704\uae30)\uc640 \ub454\ud654\ub41c \ubb3c\uac00 \uc9c0\ud45c\uac00 \ub9de\ubb3c\ub838\uace0, \uc9c0\uae08\ub3c4 \ube44\uc2b7\ud55c \ubaa8\uc2b5\uc774\ub2e4. \ub2ec\ub7ec \uc778\ub371\uc2a4\ub294 \uc9c0\ub09c\uc8fc \ub0a8\uc911\uad6d\ud574 \ud574\uad70 \uae34\uc7a5\uc774 \uc644\ud654\ub41c \ub4a4 101.50 \uc544\ub798\uc5d0\uc11c \uc6c0\uc9c1\uc774\uace0 \uc788\uc5b4, \ube44\uc2b7\ud55c \ud558\ubc29 \uc555\ub825\uc774 \uc774\uc5b4\uc9c8 \uc218 \uc788\ub2e4.<\/p>\n
2025\ub144\uc5d0\ub294 \uc608\uc0c1\ubcf4\ub2e4 \uc57d\ud55c PPI\uac00 \uc5f0\uc900(Fed\u00b7\ubbf8\uad6d \uc911\uc559\uc740\ud589)\uc758 \uae34\ucd95 \ubd80\ub2f4\uc744 \ub35c\uc5b4 \ub2ec\ub7ec \uc57d\uc138\ub97c \ud0a4\uc6e0\ub2e4. \ucd5c\uadfc 2026\ub144 3\uc6d4 \uc18c\ube44\uc790\ubb3c\uac00\uc9c0\uc218(CPI\u00b7\uac00\uacc4\uac00 \uad6c\uc785\ud558\ub294 \uc0c1\ud488\u00b7\uc11c\ube44\uc2a4 \uac00\uaca9 \ubcc0\ud654\ub97c \ubcf4\uc5ec\uc8fc\ub294 \ub300\ud45c \ubb3c\uac00 \uc9c0\ud45c)\ub294 2.9%\ub85c, \uc608\uc0c1\uce58 3.0%\ub97c \uc18c\ud3ed \ubc11\ub3cc\uba70 \ub450 \ub2ec \uc5f0\uc18d \ubb3c\uac00 \ub454\ud654\ub97c \ubcf4\uc600\ub2e4. \uc774\uc5d0 \ub530\ub77c \uc5f0\ubc29\uae30\uae08\uae08\ub9ac \uc120\ubb3c(Fed funds futures\u00b7\uc2dc\uc7a5 \ucc38\uac00\uc790\ub4e4\uc774 \ud5a5\ud6c4 \uae30\uc900\uae08\ub9ac \uc218\uc900\uc744 \uac70\ub798\ub85c \ubc18\uc601\ud558\ub294 \uc0c1\ud488)\uc740 \uc5ec\ub984 \uae08\ub9ac \uc778\uc0c1 \uac00\ub2a5\uc131\uc744 20% \uc815\ub3c4\ub85c\ub9cc \ubc18\uc601\ud558\uace0 \uc788\ub2e4. \uc9c0\ub09c\ub2ec 50%\ub97c \uc6c3\ub3cc\ub358 \uc218\uc900\uc5d0\uc11c \ub0ae\uc544\uc9c4 \uac83\uc774\ub2e4.<\/p>\n
\ud2b8\ub808\uc774\ub354 \uc785\uc7a5\uc5d0\uc11c\ub294 \ub2ec\ub7ec \uc57d\uc138\uc5d0 \ucd94\uac00\ub85c \ubca0\ud305\ud560 \uc5ec\uc9c0\uac00 \uc0dd\uae34\ub2e4. DXY \ub610\ub294 \uad00\ub828 ETF(\uc0c1\uc7a5\uc9c0\uc218\ud380\ub4dc\u00b7\uc9c0\uc218\ub97c \ucd94\uc885\ud558\ub3c4\ub85d \ub9cc\ub4e0 \uc8fc\uc2dd\ucc98\ub7fc \uac70\ub798\ub418\ub294 \ud380\ub4dc)\uc5d0 \ub300\ud574 \ud48b\uc635\uc158(\ud2b9\uc815 \uac00\uaca9\uc5d0 \ud314 \uc218 \uc788\ub294 \uad8c\ub9ac\ub85c, \uac00\uaca9 \ud558\ub77d\uc5d0 \ubca0\ud305\ud558\ub294 \uc218\ub2e8) \ub9e4\uc218\ub97c \uace0\ub824\ud560 \uc218 \uc788\ub2e4. \ubaa9\ud45c\ub294 \uc218\uc8fc \ub0b4 \uc2ec\ub9ac\uc801 \uc9c0\uc9c0\uc120\uc778 100.00 \uc218\uc900\uc774\ub2e4. \ub610\ud55c \uc704\ud5d8\uc120\ud638\uac00 \uac1c\uc120\ub420\uc218\ub85d \uc6d0\uc790\uc7ac \ud1b5\ud654(\uc6d0\uc720\u00b7\uae08\uc18d \ub4f1 \uc6d0\uc790\uc7ac \uac00\uaca9\uacfc \ub3d9\ud589\ud558\ub294 \uacbd\ud5a5\uc774 \ud070 \ud1b5\ud654, \uc608: \ud638\uc8fc\ub2ec\ub7ec\u00b7\uce90\ub098\ub2e4\ub2ec\ub7ec \ub4f1) \ubc14\uc2a4\ucf13\uc5d0 \ub300\ud574 \ubbf8 \ub2ec\ub7ec \uc120\ubb3c(\ub2ec\ub7ec \uac00\uce58\ub97c \uc120\ubb3c\ub85c \ub9e4\ub9e4\ud558\ub294 \uacc4\uc57d)\uc744 \ub9e4\ub3c4\ud558\ub294 \uc804\ub7b5\ub3c4 \ub9e4\ub825\uc801\uc73c\ub85c \ubcf4\uc778\ub2e4.<\/p>\n
2025\ub144 \uc774\ub780 \ud734\uc804 \uad6d\uba74\uc5d0\uc11c \ud655\uc778\ub41c \ud575\uc2ec \ud3ec\uc778\ud2b8\ub294 \ud1b5\ud654 \ubcc0\ub3d9\uc131(\uac00\uaca9 \ud754\ub4e4\ub9bc\uc758 \ud06c\uae30)\uc774 \ud06c\uac8c \ub0ae\uc544\uc84c\ub2e4\ub294 \uc810\uc774\ub2e4. CME\uc758 CVOL \ub2ec\ub7ec \ubcc0\ub3d9\uc131 \uc9c0\uc218(CME \uac70\ub798\uc18c\uac00 \uc0b0\ucd9c\ud558\ub294 \ub2ec\ub7ec \uad00\ub828 \uc635\uc158\uc758 \ub0b4\uc7ac\ubcc0\ub3d9\uc131 \uc9c0\ud45c)\ub294 2025\ub144 \ud3c9\ud654 \ud611\uc0c1 \ubc1c\ud45c \uc774\ud6c4 \uc77c\uc8fc\uc77c \ub3d9\uc548 \uc57d 15% \ub5a8\uc5b4\uc84c\ub2e4. \ud604\uc7ac\ub3c4 \ube44\uc2b7\ud558\uac8c \ubcc0\ub3d9\uc131\uc774 \uc555\ucd95\ub418\uace0 \uc788\uc5b4, \ud55c \ub2ec \uc804\ubcf4\ub2e4 \uc635\uc158\uc744 \ub9e4\uc218\ud558\ub294 \uc804\ub7b5(\ub871 \uc635\uc158\u00b7\uc635\uc158\uc744 \uc0ac\uc11c \ud5a5\ud6c4 \ud070 \uc6c0\uc9c1\uc784\uc5d0 \ubca0\ud305)\uc774 \uc0c1\ub300\uc801\uc73c\ub85c \ube44\uc6a9 \ubd80\ub2f4\uc774 \uc904\uc5c8\ub2e4.<\/p>\n
\uc9c0\uc815\ud559\uc801 \uc704\uae30 \uc815\uc810 \uc774\ud6c4 \ub2ec\ub7ec\uac00 \ube60\ub974\uac8c \uc57d\ud574\uc9c0\ub294 \ud328\ud134\uc740 \ub0af\uc124\uc9c0 \uc54a\ub2e4. 2022\ub144 \ub9d0 \uc5d0\ub108\uc9c0 \uac00\uaca9 \uae09\ub4f1 \ucda9\uaca9 \uc774\ud6c4\uc5d0\ub3c4 \uc548\uc804\uc790\uc0b0 \uc218\uc694\uac00 \uae09\uaca9\ud788 \ub418\ub3cc\ub824\uc9c0\uba70(\uc5b8\uc640\uc778\ub4dc\u00b7\uc3e0\ub9bc \ud3ec\uc9c0\uc158\uc774 \ube60\ub974\uac8c \ud574\uc18c\ub418\ub294 \ud604\uc0c1) \ube44\uc2b7\ud55c \uc6c0\uc9c1\uc784\uc774 \ub098\ud0c0\ub0ac\ub2e4. \ub2e4\ub9cc \uc5f0\uc900 \uc778\uc0ac\ub4e4\uc758 \ub9e4\ud30c\uc801 \ubc1c\uc5b8(\ud1b5\ud654 \uae34\ucd95\uc744 \uc120\ud638\ud558\ub294 \uc2e0\ud638)\uc774\ub098 \uae34\uc7a5 \uc7ac\ud655\ub300\uac00 \ub098\uc624\uba74 \ud750\ub984\uc774 \ube60\ub974\uac8c \ub4a4\uc9d1\ud790 \uc218 \uc788\uc5b4 \uacbd\uacc4\uac00 \ud544\uc694\ud558\ub2e4.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
\ub2ec\ub7ec\uc778\ub371\uc2a4 DXY 98\uc120 \ubd95\uad34 \ucd08\uc77d\uae30? \uc774\ub780 \ud611\uc0c1 \uc7ac\uac1c \uae30\ub300\uc640 CPI\u00b7PPI \ub454\ud654\ub85c \ub2ec\ub7ec \uc57d\uc138 \uc2ec\ud654. \uc635\uc158 \ubcc0\ub3d9\uc131 \uc555\ucd95 \uc18d \ud48b\u00b7\ub2ec\ub7ec\uc120\ubb3c \ub9e4\ub3c4 \uc804\ub7b5 \ubd80\uac01, \ub9ac\uc2a4\ud06c\uc628 \uc8fc\ubaa9.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-44708","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/44708","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=44708"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/44708\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=44708"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=44708"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=44708"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}