MAS(\uc2f1\uac00\ud3ec\ub974\ud1b5\ud654\uccad)\ub294 4\uc6d4 \uc2f1\uac00\ud3ec\ub974\ub2ec\ub7ec \uba85\ubaa9\uc2e4\ud6a8\ud658\uc728(S$NEER, \uc8fc\uc694 \uad50\uc5ed\uc0c1\ub300\uad6d \ud1b5\ud654 \ub300\ube44 \uc2f1\uac00\ud3ec\ub974\ub2ec\ub7ec\uc758 \uc885\ud569\uac00\uce58) \uc815\ucc45 \ubc34\ub4dc\uc758 \u2018\uae30\uc6b8\uae30(slope, \uc2dc\uac04\uc774 \uc9c0\ub0a0\uc218\ub85d \ud658\uc728 \uacbd\ub85c\uac00 \uc5b4\ub290 \ubc29\ud5a5\u00b7\uc18d\ub3c4\ub85c \uc6c0\uc9c1\uc774\ub3c4\ub85d \uc720\ub3c4\ud558\ub294 \uc870\uc815 \uc18d\ub3c4)\u2019\ub97c \uc18c\ud3ed \ub192\uc774\uba70 \ud658\uc728\uc815\ucc45\uc744 \uae34\ucd95\ud588\ub2e4. \ubc34\ub4dc\uc758 \ud3ed(\ud5c8\uc6a9 \ubcc0\ub3d9 \ubc94\uc704)\uacfc \uc911\uc2ec \uc218\uc900(\ubc34\ub4dc\uac00 \uae30\uc900\uc73c\ub85c \uc0bc\ub294 \uc911\uac04\uac12)\uc740 \uc720\uc9c0\ub410\ub2e4.<\/p>\n
MAS\ub294 \uc774\ub780 \ubd84\uc7c1 \uc774\ud6c4 \uc77c\ubcf8\uc744 \uc81c\uc678\ud55c \uc544\uc2dc\uc544 \uc9c0\uc5ed\uc5d0\uc11c \ucc98\uc74c\uc73c\ub85c \uc815\ucc45\uc744 \uae34\ucd95\ud55c \uc911\uc559\uc740\ud589\uc774 \ub410\ub2e4. \ucd1d\ubb3c\uac00(\ud5e4\ub4dc\ub77c\uc778 \uc778\ud50c\ub808\uc774\uc158, \uc804\uccb4 \uc18c\ube44\uc790\ubb3c\uac00)\uc640 MAS \uadfc\uc6d0\ubb3c\uac00(MAS core inflation, \uc8fc\ub85c \uc2dd\ub8cc\ud488\u00b7\uc5d0\ub108\uc9c0 \ub4f1 \ubcc0\ub3d9\uc131\uc774 \ud070 \ud56d\ubaa9\uc744 \uc81c\uc678\ud574 \ucd94\uc138\ub97c \ubcf4\ub294 \ubb3c\uac00)\ub97c \ubaa8\ub450 1.5~2.5%\ub85c \uc0c1\ud5a5 \uc870\uc815\ud588\uc73c\uba70, \uae30\uc874 \uc804\ub9dd\uce58\ub294 1~2%\uc600\ub2e4.<\/p>\n
MAS\ub294 2026\ub144 \uc131\uc7a5 \ud3c9\uac00\ub97c \ub0ae\ucdc4\ub2e4. 2026\ub144 GDP \uc131\uc7a5\ub960\uc740 2025\ub144\uc5d0 \uae30\ub85d\ud55c \ucd94\uc138\ub97c \uc6c3\ub3c4\ub294 \uc131\uc7a5 \uc18d\ub3c4\uc5d0\uc11c \ub454\ud654\ud560 \uac00\ub2a5\uc131\uc774 \ub192\ub2e4\uace0 \ubc1d\ud614\ub2e4.<\/p>\n
MAS\ub294 \ud50c\ub7ec\uc2a4 \uc0b0\ucd9c\uac2d(\uc7a0\uc7ac\uc131\uc7a5\ub960 \ub300\ube44 \uc2e4\uc81c \uc131\uc7a5\ub960\uc774 \ub354 \ub192\uc544 \ubb3c\uac00 \uc555\ub825\uc774 \ucee4\uc9c0\uae30 \uc26c\uc6b4 \uc0c1\ud0dc)\uc774 0% \uc548\ud30e\uc73c\ub85c \uc881\ud600\uc9c8 \uac83\uc774\ub77c\uace0 \ubc1d\ud614\ub2e4. \uc131\uc7a5\uacfc \ubb3c\uac00 \ubaa8\ub450\uc5d0 \ub300\ud574 \uc911\ub3d9 \ubd84\uc7c1\uc5d0 \ub530\ub978 \ubd88\ud655\uc2e4\uc131\uc744 \uc5b8\uae09\ud588\ub2e4.<\/p>\n
MAS\ub294 \uc5ec\ub7ec \uc2dc\ub098\ub9ac\uc624\uc5d0\uc11c \uc5d0\ub108\uc9c0 \uacf5\uae09 \ucda9\uaca9(\uc6d0\uc720\u00b7\uac00\uc2a4 \uacf5\uae09 \ucc28\uc9c8\ub85c \uac00\uaca9\uc774 \uae09\ub4f1\ud558\ub294 \ud604\uc0c1)\uc774 \uc9c0\uc18d\ub420 \uc218 \uc788\ub2e4\uace0 \ubd24\ub2e4. \uc774\ub294 \ud5a5\ud6c4 \uc218\uac1c\uc6d4~\uc218\ubd84\uae30 \ub3d9\uc548 \ud22c\uc785\ube44\uc6a9(\uae30\uc5c5\uc758 \uc6d0\uc790\uc7ac\u00b7\uc5d0\ub108\uc9c0\u00b7\uc6b4\uc1a1 \ub4f1 \uc0dd\uc0b0\ube44)\uc744 \uacc4\uc18d \ubc00\uc5b4\uc62c\ub9b4 \uc218 \uc788\ub2e4\uace0 \ud588\ub2e4.<\/p>\n
\ud5a5\ud6c4 \uc815\ucc45 \ubcc0\ud654\ub294 MAS\uc758 \ud3c9\uac00 \ub300\ube44 \ubb3c\uac00\uc640 \uc0b0\ucd9c\uac2d \uacb0\uacfc\uac00 \uc5b4\ub5bb\uac8c \u2018\uc608\uc0c1\uc5d0\uc11c \ubc97\uc5b4\ub098\ub294\uc9c0(\uc11c\ud504\ub77c\uc774\uc988)\u2019\uc5d0 \ub2ec\ub824 \uc788\ub2e4\ub294 \uc2e0\ud638\ub85c \ud574\uc11d\ub41c\ub2e4.<\/p>\n
MAS\uac00 S$NEER \uc815\ucc45 \ubc34\ub4dc \uae30\uc6b8\uae30\ub97c \ub192\uc778 \ucd5c\uadfc \uacb0\uc815\uc758 \ud575\uc2ec \uc2e0\ud638\ub294 \uc2f1\uac00\ud3ec\ub974\ub2ec\ub7ec \uac15\uc138 \uc9c0\uc18d\uc774\ub2e4. \uc774\ub294 \uc778\ud50c\ub808\uc774\uc158(\ubb3c\uac00\uc0c1\uc2b9)\uc744 \uc5b5\uc81c\ud558\uae30 \uc704\ud55c \uc870\uce58\ub85c, \uc120\ubb3c\ud658(forward, \ubbf8\ub798 \ud2b9\uc815 \uc2dc\uc810\uc5d0 \uc815\ud55c \ud658\uc728\ub85c \ud1b5\ud654\ub97c \uad50\ud658\ud558\ub294 \uacc4\uc57d)\uc774\ub098 \ucf5c\uc635\uc158(call option, \uc815\ud574\uc9c4 \uac00\uaca9\uc5d0 \uc0b4 \uc218 \uc788\ub294 \uad8c\ub9ac) \uac19\uc740 \ud30c\uc0dd\uc0c1\ud488(\uae30\ucd08\uc790\uc0b0 \uac00\uaca9\uc5d0 \uc5f0\ub3d9\ub418\ub294 \uae08\uc735\uacc4\uc57d)\uc744 \ud65c\uc6a9\ud574 \uc2f1\uac00\ud3ec\ub974\ub2ec\ub7ec \ub9e4\uc218(\ub871) \ud3ec\uc9c0\uc158\uc744 \ucde8\ud558\ub294 \ubc29\uc2dd\uc774 \uc9c1\uc811\uc801\uc778 \ub300\uc751\uc774 \ub420 \uc218 \uc788\ub2e4. \uc2dc\uc7a5\uc740 \ud1b5\ud654\uac00 \uae30\uc874 \uc608\uc0c1\ubcf4\ub2e4 \uc870\uae08 \ub354 \ube60\ub978 \uc18d\ub3c4\ub85c \uc808\uc0c1(\uac00\uce58 \uc0c1\uc2b9)\ud560 \uac00\ub2a5\uc131\uc744 \ubc18\uc601\ud560 \uc218 \uc788\ub2e4.<\/p>\n
\uc774 \uac19\uc740 \uae34\ucd95 \uc131\ud5a5(\ub9e4\ud30c\uc801, hawkish: \ubb3c\uac00 \uc5b5\uc81c\ub97c \uc704\ud574 \ud1b5\ud654\uac00\uce58 \uac15\uc138\u00b7\uae34\ucd95\uc744 \uc120\ud638\ud558\ub294 \uae30\uc870)\uc740 \ucd5c\uc2e0 \ubb3c\uac00 \uc9c0\ud45c\ub85c\ub3c4 \ub4b7\ubc1b\uce68\ub41c\ub2e4. 3\uc6d4 \uadfc\uc6d0\ubb3c\uac00\ub294 2.3%\ub85c, MAS\uac00 \uc0c8\ub85c \uc81c\uc2dc\ud55c 1.5~2.5% \ubc94\uc704 \uc548\uc5d0\uc11c \ub192\uc740 \uc218\uc900\uc744 \uc720\uc9c0\ud588\ub2e4. \uc774\ub294 \ub2f9\uad6d\uc774 \uc218\uc785\ubb3c\uac00(\ud574\uc678\uc5d0\uc11c \ub4e4\uc5ec\uc624\ub294 \uc0c1\ud488\u00b7\uc6d0\uc790\uc7ac \uac00\uaca9) \ubd80\ub2f4\uc744 \ub0ae\ucd94\uae30 \uc704\ud574 \ud1b5\ud654 \uac15\uc138\ub97c \uc120\ud638\ud560 \uc218 \uc788\uc74c\uc744 \uc2dc\uc0ac\ud55c\ub2e4. \uc774\uc5d0 \ub530\ub77c USD\/SGD(\ubbf8 \ub2ec\ub7ec-\uc2f1\uac00\ud3ec\ub974\ub2ec\ub7ec \ud658\uc728)\uac00 \ubc18\ub4f1\ud560 \ub54c(\uc0c1\uc2b9\ud560 \ub54c) \ub9e4\ub3c4\ud558\ub294 \uc804\ub7b5\uc774 \ud5a5\ud6c4 \uc218\uc8fc\uac04 \uc720\ud6a8\ud560 \uc218 \uc788\ub2e4\ub294 \uad00\uce21\uc774 \ub098\uc628\ub2e4.<\/p>\n
\ub2e4\ub9cc \uc131\uc7a5 \uc804\ub9dd \ud558\ud5a5\ub3c4 \ud568\uaed8 \ubd10\uc57c \ud55c\ub2e4. 1\ubd84\uae30 GDP\ub294 \uc804\ub144 \ub300\ube44 1.8%\ub85c, 2025\ub144\uc758 \ub354 \uac15\ud55c \uc131\uc7a5 \uc18d\ub3c4\uc5d0\uc11c \ub454\ud654\ud588\ub2e4. \ubb3c\uac00 \uc5b5\uc81c\uc640 \uc131\uc7a5 \ub454\ud654\uac00 \ub3d9\uc2dc\uc5d0 \ub098\ud0c0\ub098\ub294 \uc5c7\uac08\ub9bc\uc740 \ubd88\ud655\uc2e4\uc131\uc744 \ud0a4\uc6cc, \uc635\uc158(\ubbf8\ub9ac \uc815\ud55c \uac00\uaca9\uc73c\ub85c \uc0ac\uace0\ud314 \uc218 \uc788\ub294 \uad8c\ub9ac) \uc804\ub7b5\uc774 \uc0c1\ub300\uc801\uc73c\ub85c \ub9e4\ub825\uc801\uc77c \uc218 \uc788\ub2e4. \uc608\ub97c \ub4e4\uc5b4 USD\/SGD \ud48b\uc635\uc158(put option, \uc815\ud574\uc9c4 \uac00\uaca9\uc5d0 \ud314 \uc218 \uc788\ub294 \uad8c\ub9ac)\uc744 \ub9e4\uc218\ud574 \ud658\uc728 \ud558\ub77d(\ub2ec\ub7ec \uc57d\uc138\u00b7\uc2f1\uac00\ud3ec\ub974\ub2ec\ub7ec \uac15\uc138) \ubc29\ud5a5\uc5d0 \ubca0\ud305\ud558\ub418, \uae00\ub85c\ubc8c \uc131\uc7a5 \uc6b0\ub824\ub85c \ub2ec\ub7ec\ub85c \uc790\uae08\uc774 \ubab0\ub9ac\ub294 \u2018\uc548\uc804\uc790\uc0b0 \uc120\ud638(\ub9ac\uc2a4\ud06c \ud68c\ud53c)\u2019\uac00 \ubc1c\uc0dd\ud560 \ub54c\uc758 \uc190\uc2e4\uc744 \uc81c\ud55c\ud558\ub294 \ubc29\uc2dd\uc774 \uac70\ub860\ub41c\ub2e4.<\/p>\n
\uc911\ub3d9 \ubd84\uc7c1\uc740 \uc5d0\ub108\uc9c0 \uac00\uaca9\uc744 \ub192\uc740 \uc218\uc900\uc5d0 \ubb36\uc5b4\ub450\ub294 \ud575\uc2ec \ubcc0\uc218\ub85c, MAS\uc758 \ubb3c\uac00 \uacbd\uacc4 \uae30\uc870\ub97c \uac15\ud654\ud55c\ub2e4. \ube0c\ub80c\ud2b8\uc720(\uad6d\uc81c \uc720\uac00 \uae30\uc900 \uc9c0\ud45c)\uac00 \ubc30\ub7f4\ub2f9 \uc57d 95\ub2ec\ub7ec\ub85c, 2025\ub144 \ud3c9\uade0 85\ub2ec\ub7ec\uc5d0\uc11c \uc0c1\uc2b9\ud55c \uc0c1\ud669\uc774\ub77c \uc218\uc785 \uc778\ud50c\ub808\uc774\uc158(\ud574\uc678 \uac00\uaca9 \uc0c1\uc2b9\uc774 \uad6d\ub0b4 \ubb3c\uac00\ub85c \uc804\uc774\ub418\ub294 \ud604\uc0c1) \uc555\ub825\uc740 \uc27d\uac8c \uaebe\uc774\uc9c0 \uc54a\ub294\ub2e4\ub294 \ud3c9\uac00\ub2e4. \uc774 \uac19\uc740 \ub300\uc678 \uc694\uc778\uc740 MAS\uac00 \uae34\ucd95 \ud3b8\ud5a5(\uae34\ucd95 \ucabd\uc5d0 \ub354 \ubb34\uac8c\ub97c \ub450\ub294 \uae30\uc870)\uc744 \uc720\uc9c0\ud560 \uba85\ubd84\uc774 \ub41c\ub2e4.<\/p>\n
\uc77c\ubcf8\uc744 \uc81c\uc678\ud55c \uc5ed\ub0b4\uc5d0\uc11c \uac00\uc7a5 \uba3c\uc800 \uae34\ucd95\uc5d0 \ub098\uc11c\uba74\uc11c MAS\ub294 \uc815\ucc45 \ucc28\ubcc4\ud654(\uc815\ucc45 \u2018\ub514\ucee4\ud50c\ub9c1\u2019, divergence: \uc77c\ubd80 \uad6d\uac00\ub294 \uae34\ucd95, \ub2e4\ub978 \uad6d\uac00\ub294 \uc644\ud654\ub85c \uc5c7\uac08\ub9ac\ub294 \ud604\uc0c1)\ub97c \ubd84\uba85\ud788 \ud588\ub2e4. \uc774\uc5d0 \ub530\ub77c \uc0c1\ub300\uac00\uce58 \uac70\ub798(relative value trade, \ub450 \uc790\uc0b0\uc758 \uc0c1\ub300\uc801\uc778 \uac15\uc57d\uc744 \ud65c\uc6a9\ud558\ub294 \uac70\ub798) \uae30\ud68c\uac00 \uc0dd\uae38 \uc218 \uc788\ub2e4. \uc608\ucee8\ub300 \uc911\uc559\uc740\ud589\uc774 \ub354 \uc644\ud654\uc801\uc778(\uae08\ub9ac \uc778\ud558\u00b7\ud1b5\ud654\uacf5\uae09 \ud655\ub300\uc5d0 \uac00\uae4c\uc6b4) \uc9c0\uc5ed \ud1b5\ud654 \ub300\ube44 \uc2f1\uac00\ud3ec\ub974\ub2ec\ub7ec\ub97c \ub9e4\uc218\ud558\ub294 \uc804\ub7b5\uc774\ub2e4. SGD\/THB(\uc2f1\uac00\ud3ec\ub974\ub2ec\ub7ec-\ud0dc\uad6d \ubc14\ud2b8) \ub9e4\uc218 \ub610\ub294 SGD\/MYR(\uc2f1\uac00\ud3ec\ub974\ub2ec\ub7ec-\ub9d0\ub808\uc774\uc2dc\uc544 \ub9c1\uae43) \ub9e4\uc218 \ud3ec\uc9c0\uc158\uc774 \uc815\ucc45 \uaca9\ucc28\uac00 \ud655\ub300\ub420 \uacbd\uc6b0 \uc131\uacfc\ub97c \ub0bc \uc218 \uc788\ub2e4\ub294 \uad00\uce21\uc774 \ub098\uc628\ub2e4.<\/p>\n
\ub2e4\ub9cc \uacfc\uac70 \uc0ac\ub840\ub3c4 \uacbd\uacc4\ud560 \ud544\uc694\uac00 \uc788\ub2e4. \uc720\ub7fd\uc911\uc559\uc740\ud589(ECB)\uc774 2011\ub144 \uacbd\uae30 \ud558\uac15 \uad6d\uba74 \uc9c1\uc804\uc5d0 \uae08\ub9ac\ub97c \uc62c\ub838\ub2e4\uac00 \uacb0\uad6d \ub418\ub3cc\ub9b0(\uc7ac\uc644\ud654) \uc804\ub840\ucc98\ub7fc, \uae00\ub85c\ubc8c \uacbd\uae30 \ub454\ud654\uac00 \uc608\uc0c1\ubcf4\ub2e4 \uac00\ud314\ub77c\uc9c0\uba74 MAS\ub3c4 \uae30\uc870\ub97c \uc7ac\uac80\ud1a0\ud560 \uc218 \uc788\ub2e4. \uc774 \uacbd\uc6b0 \ubcc0\ub3d9\uc131(\uac00\uaca9\uc774 \ud06c\uac8c \uc624\ub974\ub0b4\ub9ac\ub294 \uc815\ub3c4)\uc774 \ucee4\uc9c8 \uc218 \uc788\uc5b4, \uc190\uc2e4 \ud55c\ub3c4\uac00 \uba85\ud655\ud55c(\ub9ac\uc2a4\ud06c\uac00 \ud655\uc815\ub41c) \ud30c\uc0dd\uc0c1\ud488 \uad6c\uc870\ub97c \ud65c\uc6a9\ud558\ub294 risk \uad00\ub9ac\uc758 \uc911\uc694\uc131\uc774 \ubd80\uac01\ub41c\ub2e4.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
\u2018\uc544\uc2dc\uc544 \uccab \uae34\ucd95\u2019 MAS, S$NEER \ubc34\ub4dc \uae30\uc6b8\uae30 \uc0c1\ud5a5\u2026\ubb3c\uac00 \uc804\ub9dd 1.5~2.5%\ub85c \uc62c\ub824 SGD \uac15\uc138 \uc720\ub3c4. \uc131\uc7a5 \ub454\ud654\u00b7\uc911\ub3d9\ubc1c \uc5d0\ub108\uc9c0 \uc1fc\ud06c\ub85c \ubcc0\ub3d9\uc131 \ud655\ub300, USD\/SGD \ud558\ub77d \ubca0\ud305\ub3c4.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-44663","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/44663","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=44663"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/44663\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=44663"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=44663"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=44663"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}