{"id":44528,"date":"2026-04-13T19:23:04","date_gmt":"2026-04-13T19:23:04","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr\/uncategorized\/td%ec%a6%9d%ea%b6%8c-%ec%a0%84%eb%9e%b5%ea%b0%80%eb%93%a4-%ec%9d%b4%eb%9e%80-%ea%b4%80%eb%a0%a8-%ec%a0%84%ea%b0%9c-%ec%9d%b8%ed%94%8c%eb%a0%88%ec%9d%b4%ec%85%98-%ec%a7%80%ed%91%9c%c2%b7\/"},"modified":"2026-04-13T19:23:04","modified_gmt":"2026-04-13T19:23:04","slug":"td%ec%a6%9d%ea%b6%8c-%ec%a0%84%eb%9e%b5%ea%b0%80%eb%93%a4-%ec%9d%b4%eb%9e%80-%ea%b4%80%eb%a0%a8-%ec%a0%84%ea%b0%9c-%ec%9d%b8%ed%94%8c%eb%a0%88%ec%9d%b4%ec%85%98-%ec%a7%80%ed%91%9c%c2%b7","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/live-updates\/td%ec%a6%9d%ea%b6%8c-%ec%a0%84%eb%9e%b5%ea%b0%80%eb%93%a4-%ec%9d%b4%eb%9e%80-%ea%b4%80%eb%a0%a8-%ec%a0%84%ea%b0%9c-%ec%9d%b8%ed%94%8c%eb%a0%88%ec%9d%b4%ec%85%98-%ec%a7%80%ed%91%9c%c2%b7\/","title":{"rendered":"TD\uc99d\uad8c \uc804\ub7b5\uac00\ub4e4 \u201c\uc774\ub780 \uad00\ub828 \uc804\uac1c, \uc778\ud50c\ub808\uc774\uc158 \uc9c0\ud45c\u00b7\uacbd\uae30 \uc9c0\ud45c\uac00 \uc5f0\uc900 \uc815\ucc45 \uae30\ub300\uc640 \ubbf8\uad6d \uac70\uc2dc \ud750\ub984 \uc88c\uc6b0\u201d"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>TD\uc99d\uad8c\uc758 \uc804\ub7b5\uac00 \uc624\uc2a4\uce74\ub974 \ubb34\ub1e8\uc2a4\uc640 \uc5d8\ub9ac \ub2c8\ub974\ub294 \ubbf8\uad6d \uac70\uc2dc(\uacbd\uc81c \uc804\ubc18) \uc5ec\uac74\uacfc \uc5f0\ubc29\uc900\ube44\uc81c\ub3c4(Fed\u00b7\ubbf8 \uc911\uc559\uc740\ud589)\uc758 \ud1b5\ud654\uc815\ucc45(\uae30\uc900\uae08\ub9ac \ub4f1\uc744 \uc870\uc808\ud558\ub294 \uc815\ucc45) \uc804\ub9dd\uc744 \uc774\ub780 \uad00\ub828 \uc804\uac1c, \ucd5c\uadfc \ubb3c\uac00(\uc778\ud50c\ub808\uc774\uc158) \uc9c0\ud45c, \uadf8\ub9ac\uace0 \uace7 \ubc1c\ud45c\ub420 \uacbd\uae30(\ud65c\ub3d9) \uc9c0\ud45c\uc640 \uc5f0\uacb0\ud574 \ud574\uc11d\ud588\ub2e4. \uc774\ub4e4\uc740 \uc720\uac00 \uc0c1\uc2b9\uacfc \uc9c0\uc815\ud559\uc801 \ubd88\ud655\uc2e4\uc131\uc774 **\uc2a4\ud0dc\uadf8\ud50c\ub808\uc774\uc158(\uacbd\uae30 \ub454\ud654\uc640 \ubb3c\uac00 \uc0c1\uc2b9\uc774 \ub3d9\uc2dc\uc5d0 \ub098\ud0c0\ub098\ub294 \uc0c1\ud669)** \uc704\ud5d8\uc744 \ud0a4\uc6cc, \ud1b5\ud654\uc815\ucc45\uc774 \ub2f9\ubd84\uac04 **\uae34\ucd95\uc801(\uae08\ub9ac\ub97c \ub192\uac8c \uc720\uc9c0\ud574 \uc218\uc694\ub97c \uc5b5\uc81c\ud558\ub294)** \uc0c1\ud0dc\ub85c \uc720\uc9c0\ub420 \uac00\ub2a5\uc131\uc774 \ud06c\ub2e4\uace0 \ubd24\ub2e4.<\/p>\n<p>\uc774\ub4e4\uc740 \uc5f0\uc900\uc774 \uc774\ub780 \uc0ac\ud0dc\uc640 \uadf8 \uacbd\uc81c\uc801 \ud30c\uae09\uc744 \ud3c9\uac00\ud558\ub294 \ub3d9\uc548 **2026\ub144 9\uc6d4\uae4c\uc9c0 \uae08\ub9ac\ub97c \ub3d9\uacb0(\ud604 \uc218\uc900 \uc720\uc9c0)**\ud560 \uac83\uc73c\ub85c \uc608\uc0c1\ud588\ub2e4. \ub610\ud55c \uadf8 \uc2dc\uc810\uc5d0\ub294 \ubb3c\uac00 \ub454\ud654 \ud750\ub984\uc774 \uc7ac\uac1c\ub3fc, \uc5f0\uc900\uc774 **\uc911\ub9bd\uae08\ub9ac(\uacbd\uae30\ub97c \uacfc\uc5f4\uc2dc\ud0a4\uc9c0\ub3c4 \uce68\uccb4\uc2dc\ud0a4\uc9c0\ub3c4 \uc54a\ub294 \uae08\ub9ac \uc218\uc900)** \ucabd\uc73c\ub85c \ucc9c\ucc9c\ud788 \uc774\ub3d9\ud560 \uc5ec\uac74\uc774 \ub9c8\ub828\ub420 \uac83\uc73c\ub85c \ubd24\ub2e4.<\/p>\n<h3>Higher Oil Prices Raise Stagflation Risks<\/h3>\n<p>\uc774\ub4e4\uc740 2026\ub144\uc5d0 \ucd1d **50bp(\ubca0\uc774\uc2dc\uc2a4\ud3ec\uc778\ud2b8\u00b70.01%\ud3ec\uc778\ud2b8\uac00 1bp, 50bp=0.50%\ud3ec\uc778\ud2b8)** \uc778\ud558\uac00 \uc788\uc744 \uac83\uc73c\ub85c \uc804\ub9dd\ud588\uc73c\uba70, \uc774\ub97c 9\uc6d4\uacfc 12\uc6d4\uc5d0 \ub098\ub220 \ub2e8\ud589\ud560 \uac83\uc73c\ub85c \ub0b4\ub2e4\ubd24\ub2e4. \uc774\uc5b4 2027\ub144 3\uc6d4\uc5d0 **25bp(0.25%\ud3ec\uc778\ud2b8)** \ucd94\uac00 \uc778\ud558\uac00 \uc774\ub904\uc838, \uc5f0\ubc29\uae30\uae08\uae08\ub9ac(\uc5f0\uc900\uc758 \uc815\ucc45\uae08\ub9ac)\uac00 **3.00%**\uac00 \ub420 \uac83\uc73c\ub85c \uc608\uc0c1\ud588\ub2e4.<\/p>\n<p>\ucd5c\uadfc \ud638\ub974\ubb34\uc988 \ud574\ud611 \uc778\uadfc\uc758 \uae34\uc7a5 \uace0\uc870\uc640 \uc9c0\ub09c\uc8fc \ubc1c\ud45c\ub41c 3\uc6d4 CPI(\uc18c\ube44\uc790\ubb3c\uac00\uc9c0\uc218\u00b7\uac00\uacc4\uac00 \uccb4\uac10\ud558\ub294 \ubb3c\uac00\ub97c \ubcf4\uc5ec\uc8fc\ub294 \uc9c0\ud45c)\uac00 \uc2dc\uc7a5 \uc608\uc0c1\ubcf4\ub2e4 \ub192\uc740 **\uc804\ub144 \ub300\ube44 3.1%**\ub85c \ub098\uc628 \uc810\uc744 \uace0\ub824\ud558\uba74, \uc5f0\uc900\uc740 \uc11c\ub450\ub974\uc9c0 \uc54a\uace0 **\uc778\ub0b4\uc2ec\uc744 \uc720\uc9c0**\ud560 \uac00\ub2a5\uc131\uc774 \ud06c\ub2e4. \uc911\uc559\uc740\ud589\uc740 \uc774\ub7ec\ud55c \ubcc0\ud654\uac00 \uacbd\uc81c\uc5d0 \ubbf8\uce58\ub294 \uc601\ud5a5\uc744 \uac00\ub2a0\ud558\uae30 \uc704\ud574 9\uc6d4 \ud68c\uc758\uae4c\uc9c0 \uae08\ub9ac\ub97c **\ub3d9\uacb0**\ud560 \uac00\ub2a5\uc131\uc774 \ub192\ub2e4. \ub2e4\ub9cc \ud5a5\ud6c4 \uacbd\ub85c\ub294 \uc0c8\ub85c \ub098\uc624\ub294 \uc9c0\ud45c\uc5d0 \ub530\ub77c \ub2ec\ub77c\uc9c8 \uc218 \uc788\ub2e4.<\/p>\n<p>\uae08\ub9ac \ud2b8\ub808\uc774\ub354(\uae08\ub9ac \ubcc0\ub3d9\uc5d0 \ubca0\ud305\ud558\ub294 \ud22c\uc790\uc790) \uad00\uc810\uc5d0\uc11c\ub294, \uc2dc\uc7a5\uc774 **\uae08\ub9ac \uc778\ud558 \uc2dc\uc810\uc744 \ub108\ubb34 \uc55e\ub2f9\uaca8 \ubc18\uc601**\ud558\uace0 \uc788\uc744 \uc218 \uc788\ub2e4\ub294 \ub73b\uc774\ub2e4. \ud604\uc7ac \uc5f0\ubc29\uae30\uae08\uae08\ub9ac \uc120\ubb3c(\ubbf8\ub798 \uc815\ucc45\uae08\ub9ac\ub97c \uc608\uc0c1\ud574 \uac70\ub798\ud558\ub294 \ud30c\uc0dd\uc0c1\ud488)\uc740 7\uc6d4 \uc778\ud558 \uac00\ub2a5\uc131\uc744 \uc57d 40%\ub85c \ubc18\uc601\ud558\uc9c0\ub9cc, \ud604 \ud658\uacbd\uc5d0\uc11c\ub294 \ub099\uad00\uc801\uc774\ub77c\ub294 \ud3c9\uac00\ub2e4. \ub530\ub77c\uc11c \uae08\ub9ac\ub97c \uc624\ub798 \uc720\uc9c0\ud55c\ub2e4\ub294 \ucabd\uc5d0 \ubca0\ud305\ud558\ub294 \ud3ec\uc9c0\uc158\uc774 \uc720\ub9ac\ud560 \uc218 \uc788\ub2e4. \uc608\ub97c \ub4e4\uc5b4 **\uadfc\uc6d4\ubb3c SOFR \uc120\ubb3c(\ubbf8\uad6d \ub2e8\uae30 \ubb34\uc704\ud5d8 \uae08\ub9ac\uc778 SOFR\uc744 \uae30\ucd08\ub85c \ud55c \uae08\ub9ac \uc120\ubb3c)**\uc744 \ub9e4\ub3c4\ud558\uac70\ub098, \ud574\ub2f9 \uc120\ubb3c\uc5d0 \ub300\ud55c **\ud48b\uc635\uc158(\uac00\uaca9 \ud558\ub77d \uc2dc \uc774\uc775\uc774 \ub098\ub294 \uc635\uc158)**\uc744 \ub9e4\uc218\ud558\ub294 \ubc29\uc2dd\uc774\ub2e4.<\/p>\n<h3>Positioning For Volatility And Defensive Trades<\/h3>\n<p>\uc9c0\uc815\ud559\uc801 \uc704\ud5d8\uacfc \ub048\uc801\ud55c \uc778\ud50c\ub808\uc774\uc158(\uc27d\uac8c \ub0b4\ub824\uc624\uc9c0 \uc54a\ub294 \ubb3c\uac00)\uc740 \uc2dc\uc7a5 \ubcc0\ub3d9\uc131 \ud655\ub300\ub97c \uc2dc\uc0ac\ud55c\ub2e4. VIX \uc9c0\uc218(\uc8fc\uac00 \ubcc0\ub3d9\uc131 \uae30\ub300\ub97c \ub098\ud0c0\ub0b4 \u2018\uacf5\ud3ec\uc9c0\uc218\u2019\ub85c \ubd88\ub9bc)\uac00 19\uc120\uc73c\ub85c \ub2e4\uc2dc \uc62c\ub77c\uac00\ub294 \uc0c1\ud669\uc5d0\uc11c\ub294, \uac11\uc791\uc2a4\ub7f0 \ucda9\uaca9\uc5d0 \ub300\ube44\ud55c \ubc29\uc5b4 \uc218\ub2e8\uc744 \ubcf4\uc720\ud558\ub294 \uac83\uc774 \ud569\ub9ac\uc801\uc774\ub2e4. VIX \ucf5c\uc635\uc158(\uc9c0\uc218 \uc0c1\uc2b9 \uc2dc \uc774\uc775)\uc774\ub098 \uad00\ub828 ETF(\uc0c1\uc7a5\uc9c0\uc218\ud380\ub4dc\u00b7\uc9c0\uc218\ub97c \ub530\ub77c\uac00\ub3c4\ub85d \uc124\uacc4\ub41c \uc0c1\ud488) \uc635\uc158\uc744 \ub9e4\uc218\ud558\uba74 \ud5a5\ud6c4 \uc218\uc8fc\uac04 \ubd88\ud655\uc2e4\uc131 \ud655\ub300\uc5d0 \ub300\ube44\ud558\ub294 \uc9c1\uc811\uc801\uc778 \ud5e4\uc9c0(\uc704\ud5d8\ud68c\ud53c) \uc218\ub2e8\uc774 \ub41c\ub2e4.<\/p>\n<p>WTI(\uc11c\ubd80\ud14d\uc0ac\uc2a4\uc0b0 \uc6d0\uc720\u00b7\ubbf8\uad6d \uae30\uc900 \uc720\uc885) \uac00\uaca9\uc774 \ubc30\ub7f4\ub2f9 98\ub2ec\ub7ec\ub97c \uacac\uc870\ud558\uac8c \uc6c3\ub3c4\ub294 \uac00\uc6b4\ub370, \uc720\uac00 \uc0c1\uc2b9\uc774 \ub9cc\ub4dc\ub294 \uc2a4\ud0dc\uadf8\ud50c\ub808\uc774\uc158 \uc555\ub825\uc740 \uac00\ubccd\uac8c \ubcfc \uc77c\uc774 \uc544\ub2c8\ub2e4. \uc9c0\uc815\ud559\uc801 \uc704\ud5d8 \ud504\ub9ac\ubbf8\uc5c4(\ubd88\ud655\uc2e4\uc131 \ub54c\ubb38\uc5d0 \uac00\uaca9\uc5d0 \ucd94\uac00\ub85c \uc5b9\ud788\ub294 \ubd80\ubd84)\uc774 \uc9c0\uc18d\ub420 \uac00\ub2a5\uc131\uc774 \ud06c\ub2e4\ub294 \ud310\ub2e8\uc774\uba70, \uc774\uc5d0 \ub530\ub77c \uc5d0\ub108\uc9c0(\uc6d0\uc720) \uc0c1\uc2b9\uc5d0 \ubca0\ud305\ud558\ub294 \ud3ec\uc9c0\uc158\uc774 \ub9e4\ub825\uc801\uc77c \uc218 \uc788\ub2e4. \uc6d0\uc720 \uc120\ubb3c(\ubbf8\ub798 \uc778\ub3c4 \uc870\uac74\uc73c\ub85c \uac70\ub798\ud558\ub294 \uc0c1\ud488)\uc5d0\uc11c \ucf5c \uc2a4\ud504\ub808\ub4dc(\ucf5c\uc635\uc158\uc744 \uc11c\ub85c \ub2e4\ub978 \ud589\uc0ac\uac00\ub85c \ub9e4\uc218\u00b7\ub9e4\ub3c4\ud574 \ube44\uc6a9\uacfc \uc704\ud5d8\uc744 \uc81c\ud55c\ud558\ub294 \uc804\ub7b5) \ub610\ub294 USO ETF(\uc6d0\uc720 \uc120\ubb3c \uae30\ubc18 ETF)\uc5d0\uc11c \uc720\uc0ac \uc804\ub7b5\uc744 \ud65c\uc6a9\ud558\uba74, \uc0c1\uc2b9 \uc5ec\uc9c0\ub97c \ub178\ub9ac\uba74\uc11c\ub3c4 \uc704\ud5d8\uc744 \uba85\ud655\ud788 \uc81c\ud55c\ud560 \uc218 \uc788\ub2e4.<\/p>\n<p>\uacfc\uac70\ub97c \ubcf4\uba74, \uc5f0\uc900\uc740 2025\ub144 \ub9d0 \ubb3c\uac00\uac00 \uc608\uc0c1\ubcf4\ub2e4 \uc624\ub798 \ubc84\ud2f0\uc790 \ubcf4\ub2e4 \uc2e0\uc911\ud55c \ud0dc\ub3c4\ub97c \uc2dc\uc0ac\ud55c \ubc14 \uc788\ub2e4. 2026\ub144 \uc0c1\ubc18\uae30\uc5d0 \uc5ec\ub7ec \ucc28\ub840 \uc778\ud558\uac00 \uc788\uc744 \uac83\uc774\ub77c\ub294 \uc2dc\uc7a5\uc758 \ucd08\uae30 \uae30\ub300\ub294 \ubb3c\uac00 \ub454\ud654 \ud750\ub984\uc5d0 \uae30\ubc18\ud588\uc9c0\ub9cc, \uadf8 \ud750\ub984\uc774 \ucd5c\uadfc \uba48\ucd98 \uc0c1\ud669\uc774\ub2e4. \uc774\ub294 \uc5f0\uc900\uc774 \uae08\ub9ac \uc778\ud558\ub97c \uc2dc\uc791\ud558\uae30 \uc704\ud55c \uc870\uac74(\ud5c8\ub4e4)\uc774 \ud604\uc7ac \ub354 \ub192\uc544\uc84c\ub2e4\ub294 \ud310\ub2e8\uc744 \ub4b7\ubc1b\uce68\ud55c\ub2e4.<\/p>\n<p>\uc8fc\uc2dd\uc2dc\uc7a5\uc5d0\uc11c\ub294 \ub192\uc740 \ud22c\uc785\ube44\uc6a9(\uc6d0\uc790\uc7ac\u00b7\uc784\uae08 \ub4f1 \ube44\uc6a9)\uacfc \uae34\ucd95\uc801 \uc815\ucc45\uc774 \uae30\uc5c5 \ub9c8\uc9c4(\uc774\uc775\ub960)\uc744 \uc555\ubc15\ud560 \uc218 \uc788\uc5b4 \ubd80\ub2f4\uc774 \ud06c\ub2e4. \ub098\uc2a4\ub2e5100\ucc98\ub7fc \uc131\uc7a5\uc8fc \ubbfc\uac10\ub3c4\uac00 \ub192\uc740 \uc9c0\uc218\uc5d0 \ub300\ud574\uc11c\ub294 \uc635\uc158\uc744 \ud65c\uc6a9\ud574 \ubc29\uc5b4\uc801 \ud3ec\uc9c0\uc158\uc744 \uad6c\ucd95\ud558\ub294 \uc804\ub7b5\uc774 \uad8c\uace0\ub41c\ub2e4. \ud48b \uc2a4\ud504\ub808\ub4dc(\uc11c\ub85c \ub2e4\ub978 \ud589\uc0ac\uac00 \ud48b\uc635\uc158\uc744 \ub9e4\uc218\u00b7\ub9e4\ub3c4\ud574 \uc190\uc2e4\uacfc \ube44\uc6a9\uc744 \uc81c\ud55c) \ub9e4\uc218 \ub610\ub294 \uc678\uac00\uaca9 \ucf5c \uc2a4\ud504\ub808\ub4dc(\ud604\uc7ac \uac00\uaca9\uc5d0\uc11c \uba3c \ud589\uc0ac\uac00\uc758 \ucf5c\uc635\uc158\uc744 \ud65c\uc6a9\ud558\ub294 \uc804\ub7b5) \ub9e4\ub3c4\ub294 \uc5ec\ub984\uae4c\uc9c0 \uc7a0\uc7ac\uc801 \ud558\ub77d \uc704\ud5d8\uc744 \ubc29\uc5b4\ud558\ub294 \ub370 \ub3c4\uc6c0\uc774 \ub420 \uc218 \uc788\ub2e4.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>\uc720\uac00\u00b7\uc774\ub780 \ub9ac\uc2a4\ud06c\uc5d0 \u2018\uc2a4\ud0dc\uadf8\ud50c\ub808\uc774\uc158\u2019 \uacbd\uace0\ub4f1\u2026TD\uc99d\uad8c \u201c\uc5f0\uc900, 2026\ub144 9\uc6d4\uae4c\uc9c0 \ub3d9\uacb0\u201d \uc804\ub9dd. \uc778\ud558 \uae30\ub300 \uacfc\uc5f4\uc5d0 \uae08\ub9ac\u00b7VIX \ubc29\uc5b4, \uc6d0\uc720 \uac15\uc138 \ubca0\ud305 \uc720\ud6a8.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-44528","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/44528","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=44528"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/44528\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=44528"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=44528"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=44528"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}