{"id":44518,"date":"2026-04-13T16:23:19","date_gmt":"2026-04-13T16:23:19","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr\/uncategorized\/%eb%8f%84%ec%9d%b4%ec%b2%b4%eb%b0%a9%ed%81%ac-%ec%97%b0%ec%a4%80-%ea%b8%88%eb%a6%ac-%eb%8f%99%ea%b2%b09%ec%9b%94-%ec%9d%b8%ed%95%98-%ec%98%88%ec%83%81-%ed%98%b8%eb%a5%b4\/"},"modified":"2026-04-13T16:23:19","modified_gmt":"2026-04-13T16:23:19","slug":"%eb%8f%84%ec%9d%b4%ec%b2%b4%eb%b0%a9%ed%81%ac-%ec%97%b0%ec%a4%80-%ea%b8%88%eb%a6%ac-%eb%8f%99%ea%b2%b09%ec%9b%94-%ec%9d%b8%ed%95%98-%ec%98%88%ec%83%81-%ed%98%b8%eb%a5%b4","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/live-updates\/%eb%8f%84%ec%9d%b4%ec%b2%b4%eb%b0%a9%ed%81%ac-%ec%97%b0%ec%a4%80-%ea%b8%88%eb%a6%ac-%eb%8f%99%ea%b2%b09%ec%9b%94-%ec%9d%b8%ed%95%98-%ec%98%88%ec%83%81-%ed%98%b8%eb%a5%b4\/","title":{"rendered":"\ub3c4\uc774\uccb4\ubc29\ud06c \u201c\uc5f0\uc900, \uae08\ub9ac \ub3d9\uacb0\u20269\uc6d4 \uc778\ud558 \uc608\uc0c1\u201d; \ud638\ub974\ubb34\uc988 \ud574\ud611 \ubd09\uc1c4 \uc2dc \uc720\uac00(\ube0c\ub80c\ud2b8) 120\ub2ec\ub7ec \uc704\ud5d8\uc5d0 \uc2dc\uc7a5 \u2018\uc2e0\uc911\u2019"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>\ub3c4\uc774\uccb4\ubc29\ud06c \uc774\ucf54\ub178\ubbf8\uc2a4\ud2b8\ub4e4\uc740 \uc5f0\ubc29\uc900\ube44\uc81c\ub3c4(Fed)\uac00 3\uc6d4 \uae30\uc900\uae08\ub9ac\ub97c \ub3d9\uacb0\ud574 \ubaa9\ud45c \ubc94\uc704\ub97c 3.50%~3.75%\ub85c \uc720\uc9c0\ud588\ub2e4\uace0 \ubc1d\ud614\ub2e4. \uc774\ub4e4\uc740 9\uc6d4\uc5d0 25bp(\ubca0\uc774\uc2dc\uc2a4\ud3ec\uc778\ud2b8\u00b70.01%\ud3ec\uc778\ud2b8) \uc778\ud558\ub97c \uc5ec\uc804\ud788 \uc608\uc0c1\ud588\ub2e4.<\/p>\n<p>\uc774\ub4e4\uc740 \uc2dc\uc7a5\uc774 \uc81c\ud55c\uc801\uc778 \uc644\ud654\ub9cc \uae30\ub300\ud558\uace0 \uc788\uc73c\uba70, \uc5f0\ub9d0\uae4c\uc9c0 \uae08\ub9ac \uc778\ud558 \uae30\ub300\uac00 \uc57d 6bp\ub9cc \ubc18\uc601\ub3fc \uc788\ub2e4\uace0 \uc124\uba85\ud588\ub2e4. \uc774\ub294 \uae08\ub9ac \uc778\ud558 \ud655\ub960\uc774 24% \uc218\uc900\uc784\uc744 \ub73b\ud55c\ub2e4.<\/p>\n<h3>Hormuz Blockade Risk<\/h3>\n<p>\uc774\ub4e4\uc740 \ud638\ub974\ubb34\uc988 \ud574\ud611(\uc911\ub3d9 \uc0b0\uc720\uad6d \uc6d0\uc720 \uc218\uc1a1\uc758 \ud575\uc2ec \ud1b5\ub85c) \ubd09\uc1c4\uac00 \uc7a5\uae30\ud654\ud560 \uacbd\uc6b0 \ube0c\ub80c\ud2b8\uc720\uac00 \ubc30\ub7f4\ub2f9 120\ub2ec\ub7ec \uc218\uc900\uc73c\ub85c \uc624\ub97c \uc218 \uc788\ub2e4\uace0 \uacbd\uace0\ud588\ub2e4. \uc774\ub7f0 \uc5d0\ub108\uc9c0 \ucda9\uaca9(\uc5d0\ub108\uc9c0 \uac00\uaca9 \uae09\ub4f1\uc73c\ub85c \ubb3c\uac00\uc640 \uacbd\uae30 \uc804\ubc18\uc5d0 \ud30c\uae09\ub418\ub294 \uc0c1\ud669)\uc740 \uc778\ud50c\ub808\uc774\uc158(\ubb3c\uac00 \uc0c1\uc2b9\ub960)\uc5d0 \uc601\ud5a5\uc744 \uc904 \uc218 \uc788\ub2e4\uace0 \ub367\ubd99\uc600\ub2e4.<\/p>\n<p>\ubbf8\uad6d \uc778\ud50c\ub808\uc774\uc158\uc740 3.3%\ub85c \uc0c1\uc2b9\ud588\ub2e4. \uc774\ub4e4\uc758 \uc804\ub9dd\uc5d0 \ub530\ub974\uba74 2026\ub144 \uc131\uc7a5\ub960\uc740 2.5%, 2026\ub144 \uc778\ud50c\ub808\uc774\uc158\uc740 3.4%\ub2e4.<\/p>\n<p>\uc774\ub4e4\uc740 \ub178\ub3d9\uc2dc\uc7a5(\uace0\uc6a9\u00b7\uc784\uae08 \ub4f1 \uc804\ubc18) \uc5ec\uac74\uc774 \uc57d\ud574\uc9c0\uba74 \uae08\ub9ac \uc778\ud558\ub97c \ub4b7\ubc1b\uce68\ud560 \uac83\uc774\ub77c\uace0 \ub9d0\ud588\ub2e4. \ubc18\uba74 \uc5d0\ub108\uc9c0 \uac00\uaca9 \uc0c1\uc2b9\uacfc \uc5f0\uacb0\ub41c \uc778\ud50c\ub808\uc774\uc158 \uc0c1\uc2b9\uc740 \uae08\ub9ac \uc778\uc0c1\uc73c\ub85c \uc774\uc5b4\uc9c8 \uc218 \uc788\ub2e4\uace0\ub3c4 \ud588\ub2e4.<\/p>\n<h3>Trading Implications<\/h3>\n<p>\uc774\ub4e4\uc740 \uc2dc\uc7a5\uc774 9\uc6d4 \uae08\ub9ac \uc778\ud558 \uac00\ub2a5\uc131\uc744 \ucda9\ubd84\ud788 \ubc18\uc601\ud558\uc9c0 \ubabb\ud588\ub2e4\uace0 \ubcf4\uace0, \uae08\ub9ac\uc120\ubb3c(\ubbf8\ub798 \uae08\ub9ac\ub97c \uc0ac\uace0\ud30c\ub294 \ud30c\uc0dd\uc0c1\ud488)\uc5d0\uc11c \uae30\ud68c\ub97c \ubcf8\ub2e4\uace0 \ubc1d\ud614\ub2e4. 4\uc6d4 \ucd08 \ubc1c\ud45c\ub41c \ucd5c\uadfc \uace0\uc6a9\ubcf4\uace0\uc11c\uc5d0\uc11c \ube44\ub18d\uc5c5\ubd80\ubb38 \uace0\uc6a9\uc790 \uc218(\ub18d\uc5c5\uc744 \uc81c\uc678\ud55c \uc2e0\uaddc \ucde8\uc5c5\uc790 \uc99d\uac00\ud3ed)\uac00 14\ub9cc5,000\uba85\uc73c\ub85c \ub454\ud654\ud574 \uc2dc\uc7a5 \uc608\uc0c1\uce58(\ucee8\uc13c\uc11c\uc2a4\u00b7\uc5ec\ub7ec \uc804\ub9dd\uc758 \ud3c9\uade0)\ub97c \ubc11\ub3cc\uc558\uace0, \ub178\ub3d9\uc2dc\uc7a5 \ub454\ud654 \uac00\ub2a5\uc131\uc744 \ub4b7\ubc1b\uce68\ud588\ub2e4\uace0 \ud588\ub2e4. \ud2b8\ub808\uc774\ub354\ub294 \uc62c\ud574 \ud6c4\ubc18 \uae08\ub9ac \ud558\ub77d(\uc778\ud558)\uc5d0 \uc720\ub9ac\ud55c \ud3ec\uc9c0\uc158(\ud22c\uc790 \ubc29\ud5a5\uacfc \uaddc\ubaa8)\uc744 \uace0\ub824\ud560 \ud544\uc694\uac00 \uc788\ub2e4\uace0 \uc81c\uc2dc\ud588\ub2e4.<\/p>\n<p>\uc774 \uad00\uc810\uc758 \ud575\uc2ec \ub9ac\uc2a4\ud06c(\uc704\ud5d8)\ub294 \ud638\ub974\ubb34\uc988 \ud574\ud611 \ubd09\uc1c4 \uac00\ub2a5\uc131\uc73c\ub85c, \ube0c\ub80c\ud2b8\uc720\ub97c \ubc30\ub7f4\ub2f9 120\ub2ec\ub7ec\ub85c \ubc00\uc5b4\uc62c\ub9b4 \uc218 \uc788\ub2e4\ub294 \uc810\uc774\ub2e4. \ucd5c\uadfc \ud574\uc0c1 \ubcf4\uace0\ub294 \ud574\ub2f9 \uc9c0\uc5ed\uc758 \ud574\uad70 \ud65c\ub3d9\uc774 \ub298\uace0 \uc788\uc74c\uc744 \uc2dc\uc0ac\ud574 \ud604\uc2e4\uc801\uc778 \uc704\ud611\uc774\ub77c\uace0 \ud588\ub2e4. 2025\ub144 \uc911\ubc18 \uae34\uc7a5\uc744 \ub3cc\uc544\ubcf4\uba74, \uc720\uc0ac\ud558\uc9c0\ub9cc \ub35c \uc2ec\uac01\ud55c \uc0c1\ud669\uc5d0\uc11c\ub3c4 \uc720\uac00\uac00 \uc77c\uc2dc\uc801\uc73c\ub85c 18% \uae09\ub4f1\ud55c \ubc14 \uc788\ub2e4\uace0 \uc5b8\uae09\ud588\ub2e4.<\/p>\n<p>\uc720\uac00 \ucda9\uaca9\uc774 \uc9c0\uc18d\ub418\uba74 Fed\uc758 \uc815\ucc45 \uacbd\ub85c\uac00 \ub354 \ubcf5\uc7a1\ud574\uc9c8 \uc218 \uc788\ub2e4. \ubbf8\uad6d \uc778\ud50c\ub808\uc774\uc158\uc774 \uc774\ubbf8 3.3%\uc778 \uc0c1\ud669\uc5d0\uc11c \uc5d0\ub108\uc9c0\ubc1c \ubb3c\uac00 \uae09\ub4f1(\uc5d0\ub108\uc9c0 \uac00\uaca9 \uc0c1\uc2b9\uc774 \uc804\ubc18 \ubb3c\uac00\ub97c \ub04c\uc5b4\uc62c\ub9ac\ub294 \ud604\uc0c1)\uc740 \uc911\uc559\uc740\ud589\uc774 \uae08\ub9ac \uc778\ud558\ub97c \ub2a6\ucd94\uac70\ub098, \ub178\ub3d9\uc2dc\uc7a5\uc774 \uc2dd\ub354\ub77c\ub3c4 \uc778\uc0c1\uc744 \uac80\ud1a0\ud558\uac8c \ub9cc\ub4e4 \uc218 \uc788\ub2e4\ub294 \uc124\uba85\uc774\ub2e4. \uc774\uc5d0 \ub530\ub77c \uc6d0\uc720 \ub610\ub294 \uc5d0\ub108\uc9c0 \uc139\ud130 ETF(\uc0c1\uc7a5\uc9c0\uc218\ud380\ub4dc\u00b7\uc9c0\uc218\ub97c \ub530\ub77c\uac00\ub294 \uc0c1\uc7a5 \ud380\ub4dc)\uc758 \uc7a5\uae30 \ucf5c\uc635\uc158(\uc815\ud574\uc9c4 \uac00\uaca9\uc5d0 \uc0b4 \uc218 \uc788\ub294 \uad8c\ub9ac, \ub9cc\uae30\uac00 \uae34 \uacc4\uc57d)\uc744 \ub9e4\uc218\ud558\ub294 \uc804\ub7b5\uc774 \uc8fc\uc694 \ub9ac\uc2a4\ud06c\uc5d0 \ub300\ud55c \ud5e4\uc9c0(\uac00\uaca9 \ubcc0\ub3d9 \uc704\ud5d8\uc744 \uc904\uc774\ub294 \ubc29\uc5b4 \uac70\ub798)\ub85c \uc720\ud6a8\ud560 \uc218 \uc788\ub2e4\uace0 \ud588\ub2e4.<\/p>\n<p>\uc774\ub7f0 \uc0c1\ubc18\ub41c \ud798\uc744 \uace0\ub824\ud558\uba74, \uc2dc\uc7a5 \uc804\ubc18\uc758 \ubcc0\ub3d9\uc131\uc774 \ub0ae\uac8c \ud3c9\uac00\ub3fc \uc788\uc744 \uac00\ub2a5\uc131\uc774 \ud06c\ub2e4\uace0 \ubd24\ub2e4. VIX \uc9c0\uc218(\ubbf8 S&#038;P500 \uc635\uc158\uc744 \ubc14\ud0d5\uc73c\ub85c \ud55c \u2018\uacf5\ud3ec\uc9c0\uc218\u2019\ub85c, \uc608\uc0c1 \ubcc0\ub3d9\uc131\uc744 \ub098\ud0c0\ub0c4)\uac00 \ube44\uad50\uc801 \ub0ae\uc740 15 \ubd80\uadfc\uc5d0 \uba38\ubb3c\ub7ec \uc635\uc158 \uac00\uaca9\uc774 \ube44\uc2f8\uc9c0 \uc54a\ub2e4\ub294 \uac83\uc774\ub2e4. \uc8fc\uc694 \uc9c0\uc218\uc5d0\uc11c \uc2a4\ud2b8\ub798\ub4e4(\uac19\uc740 \ud589\uc0ac\uac00\u00b7\ub9cc\uae30\uc758 \ucf5c\uacfc \ud48b\uc744 \ub3d9\uc2dc\uc5d0 \ub9e4\uc218\ud574 \ud070 \ubcc0\ub3d9\uc5d0 \ubca0\ud305\ud558\ub294 \uc804\ub7b5)\ub85c \ub871 \ubcc0\ub3d9\uc131(\ubcc0\ub3d9\uc131 \ud655\ub300\uc5d0 \ubca0\ud305) \ud3ec\uc9c0\uc158\uc744 \uad6c\ucd95\ud558\uba74, Fed\uc758 \ubc29\ud5a5\uc774 \ub354 \uba85\ud655\ud574\uc9c0\ub294 \uacfc\uc815\uc5d0\uc11c \uc2dc\uc7a5\uc774 \ud06c\uac8c \uc6c0\uc9c1\uc77c \ub54c \uc218\uc775 \uae30\ud68c\uac00 \ub420 \uc218 \uc788\ub2e4\uace0 \ub367\ubd99\uc600\ub2e4.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>\ub3c4\uc774\uccb4\ubc29\ud06c \u201c\uc2dc\uc7a5, 9\uc6d4 \uc778\ud558 \uacfc\uc18c\ud3c9\uac00\u201d\u2026Fed 3.50~3.75% \ub3d9\uacb0 \uc18d \uc5f0\ub9d0 \uc778\ud558\ud655\ub960 24%. \ud638\ub974\ubb34\uc988 \ubd09\uc1c4 \ub550 \uc720\uac00 120\ub2ec\ub7ec\u00b7\ubb3c\uac00 \uc7ac\uc0c1\uc2b9 \uc704\ud5d8, \uae08\ub9ac\uc120\ubb3c\u00b7\ub871\ubcc0\ub3d9\uc131 \uc804\ub7b5 \uc81c\uc2dc.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-44518","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/44518","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=44518"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/44518\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=44518"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=44518"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=44518"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}