{"id":44402,"date":"2026-04-10T20:22:50","date_gmt":"2026-04-10T20:22:50","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr\/uncategorized\/td%ec%a6%9d%ea%b6%8c%ec%9d%80-%ea%b7%bc%ec%9b%90-cpi-%eb%91%94%ed%99%94%ec%97%90%eb%8f%84-fed%ea%b0%80-%ec%9d%b8%eb%82%b4-%ea%b8%b0%ec%a1%b0%eb%a5%bc-%ec%9c%a0%ec%a7%80%ed%95%98%eb%a9%b0-%ec%97%b0\/"},"modified":"2026-04-10T20:22:50","modified_gmt":"2026-04-10T20:22:50","slug":"td%ec%a6%9d%ea%b6%8c%ec%9d%80-%ea%b7%bc%ec%9b%90-cpi-%eb%91%94%ed%99%94%ec%97%90%eb%8f%84-fed%ea%b0%80-%ec%9d%b8%eb%82%b4-%ea%b8%b0%ec%a1%b0%eb%a5%bc-%ec%9c%a0%ec%a7%80%ed%95%98%eb%a9%b0-%ec%97%b0","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/live-updates\/td%ec%a6%9d%ea%b6%8c%ec%9d%80-%ea%b7%bc%ec%9b%90-cpi-%eb%91%94%ed%99%94%ec%97%90%eb%8f%84-fed%ea%b0%80-%ec%9d%b8%eb%82%b4-%ea%b8%b0%ec%a1%b0%eb%a5%bc-%ec%9c%a0%ec%a7%80%ed%95%98%eb%a9%b0-%ec%97%b0\/","title":{"rendered":"TD\uc99d\uad8c\uc740 \uadfc\uc6d0 CPI \ub454\ud654\uc5d0\ub3c4 Fed\uac00 \uc778\ub0b4 \uae30\uc870\ub97c \uc720\uc9c0\ud558\uba70 \uc5f0\ub0b4 2\ucc28\ub840 \uae08\ub9ac \uc778\ud558\ub97c \uc608\uc0c1\ud55c\ub2e4\uace0 \uc9c4\ub2e8\ud588\ub2e4"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>TD\uc99d\uad8c(TD Securities)\uc740 3\uc6d4 \uadfc\uc6d0 \uc18c\ube44\uc790\ubb3c\uac00\uc9c0\uc218(Core CPI)\uac00 \uc608\uc0c1\ubcf4\ub2e4 \ub0ae\uac8c \ub098\uc654\uace0, 1~2\uc6d4\ubcf4\ub2e4 \uad00\uc138 \uc778\uc0c1\ubd84\uc774 \uac00\uaca9\uc5d0 \ubc18\uc601\ub418\ub294 \uc18d\ub3c4(\uad00\uc138 \uc804\uac00, \uae30\uc5c5\uc774 \uad00\uc138 \ubd80\ub2f4\uc744 \uc18c\ube44\uc790 \uac00\uaca9\uc5d0 \ub5a0\ub118\uae30\ub294 \ud604\uc0c1)\uac00 \ub454\ud654\ub410\ub2e4\uace0 \ubc1d\ud614\ub2e4. CPI\uc5d0\uc11c \uc774\ub978\ubc14 \u2018\uc288\ud37c\ucf54\uc5b4(supercore, \ubcc0\ub3d9\uc131\uc774 \ud070 \uc5d0\ub108\uc9c0\u00b7\uc2dd\ud488\uc744 \ube80 \uadfc\uc6d0 \ubb3c\uac00 \uc911\uc5d0\uc11c\ub3c4 \uc8fc\uac70\ube44 \ub4f1\uc744 \ucd94\uac00\ub85c \uc81c\uc678\ud574 \uc11c\ube44\uc2a4 \ubb3c\uac00\uc758 \ud750\ub984\uc744 \ub354 \uc9c1\uc811 \ubcf4\ub824\ub294 \uc9c0\ud45c)\u2019\ub294 \uc804\uc6d4 \ub300\ube44 0.18%\ub85c 4\uac1c\uc6d4 \ub9cc\uc758 \ucd5c\uc800\uce58\ub85c \ub0ae\uc544\uc84c\ub2e4.<\/p>\n<p>TD\uc99d\uad8c\uc740 \uc774\ub7f0 \ud750\ub984\uc774 3\uc6d4 \uadfc\uc6d0 \uac1c\uc778\uc18c\ube44\uc9c0\ucd9c\ubb3c\uac00\uc9c0\uc218(Core PCE, \ubbf8\uad6d \uc5f0\uc900\uc774 \ubb3c\uac00 \ud310\ub2e8\uc5d0 \ub354 \uc911\uc2dc\ud558\ub294 \uc9c0\ud45c)\uc758 \uc804\uc6d4 \ub300\ube44 \uc0c1\uc2b9\ub960\uc744 0.23% \uc218\uc900\uc73c\ub85c \ub0ae\ucd94\ub294 \ub370 \uc601\ud5a5\uc744 \uc904 \uac83\uc73c\ub85c \uc804\ub9dd\ud588\ub2e4. \ub2e4\ub9cc \uc62c\ud574 \ucd08 \uc18c\ube44\uc790\ubb3c\uac00\uac00 \uac15\ud558\uac8c \ucd9c\ubc1c\ud55c \ub9cc\ud07c, \uc2dc\uc7a5\uc774 3\uc6d4 CPI \ud558\ub098\ub9cc\uc73c\ub85c \ud1b5\ud654\uc815\ucc45\uc774 \ub354 \uc644\ud654(\uae08\ub9ac \uc778\ud558 \ucabd)\ub85c \ub69c\ub837\uc774 \uc804\ud658\ub410\ub2e4\uace0 \ub2e8\uc815\ud574\uc120 \uc548 \ub41c\ub2e4\uace0 \ud588\ub2e4.<\/p>\n<h3>March Cpi Read Through<\/h3>\n<p>TD\uc99d\uad8c\uc740 4\uc6d4\uc5d0\ub294 \uadfc\uc6d0 \ubb3c\uac00\uac00 \ub2e4\uc2dc \ubc18\ub4f1\ud560 \uac83\uc73c\ub85c \ubd24\ub2e4. \ud56d\uacf5\uad8c \uac00\uaca9 \uc0c1\uc2b9\uc138\uac00 \uac15\ud654\ub418\uace0, \uc9c0\ub09c\ud574 10\uc6d4 \uc8fc\uac70\ube44(\uc784\ub300\ub8cc \ub4f1)\uac00 \uc774\ub840\uc801\uc73c\ub85c \uc57d\ud558\uac8c \ub098\uc628 \ub4a4 \ub098\ud0c0\ub098\ub294 \uc9c0\uc5f0 \ubc18\ub4f1\uc774 \uc601\ud5a5\uc744 \uc904 \uc218 \uc788\ub2e4\uace0 \uc124\uba85\ud588\ub2e4.<\/p>\n<p>TD\uc99d\uad8c\uc740 2026\ub144 \ud558\ubc18\uae30\uc5d0 \uc5f0\uc900\uc774 25bp(\ubca0\uc774\uc2dc\uc2a4\ud3ec\uc778\ud2b8, \uae08\ub9ac 0.01%\ud3ec\uc778\ud2b8)\uc529 \ub450 \ucc28\ub840 \uae08\ub9ac\ub97c \uc778\ud558\ud55c\ub2e4\ub294 \uae30\uc874 \uc804\ub9dd\uc744 \uc720\uc9c0\ud588\ub2e4. \uc778\ud50c\ub808\uc774\uc158\uc774 \ub2e4\uc2dc \u2018\uc815\uc0c1\uc801\uc778\u2019 \uc18d\ub3c4\ub85c \ub3cc\uc544\uac04\ub2e4\ub294 \uc804\uc81c\uc5d0 \uae30\ubc18\ud55c \ud310\ub2e8\uc774\ub77c\uace0 \ub367\ubd99\uc600\ub2e4.<\/p>\n<h3>Trading Implications And Positioning<\/h3>\n<p>\uc774\ub7f0 \uacac\ud574\ub294 4\uc6d4 \ubb3c\uac00\uac00 \ub418\uc0b4\uc544\ub0a0 \uc218 \uc788\uc74c\uc744 \uc2dc\uc0ac\ud558\ub294 \uc120\ud589(\uc55e\uc744 \ubcf4\uc5ec\uc8fc\ub294) \uc9c0\ud45c\ub85c \ub4b7\ubc1b\uce68\ub41c\ub2e4\uace0 \ud588\ub2e4. \uc8fc\uc694 \ud56d\uacf5\uc0ac\ub4e4\uc774 \ucd5c\uadfc \uacf5\uac1c\ud55c \uc790\ub8cc\uc5d0 \ub530\ub974\uba74 4\uc6d4 \ucd08\uc5d0 \uc608\uc57d\ub41c 5\uc6d4 \uc5ec\ud589\uc758 \ubbf8\uad6d \uad6d\ub0b4\uc120 \ud3c9\uade0 \ud56d\uacf5\uad8c \uac00\uaca9\uc774 \uc804\uc6d4 \ub300\ube44 \uc774\ubbf8 6% \uc0c1\uc2b9\ud588\ub2e4. \uc5ec\uae30\uc5d0 \uc9c0\ub09c\ud574 10\uc6d4 \uc8fc\uac70\ube44\uac00 \uc774\ub840\uc801\uc73c\ub85c \ub0ae\uc558\ub358 \ub370 \ub530\ub978 \ub418\ub3cc\ub9bc(\uc77c\uc2dc\uc801\uc73c\ub85c \ub0ae\uc558\ub358 \uc218\uce58\uac00 \ub2e4\uc2dc \uc6d0\ub798 \uc218\uc900\ub300\ub85c \uc62c\ub77c\uac00\ub294 \ud604\uc0c1)\uae4c\uc9c0 \uacb9\uce58\uba74 \ub2e4\uc74c \uadfc\uc6d0 CPI\ub97c \ub04c\uc5b4\uc62c\ub9b4 \uc218 \uc788\ub2e4\ub294 \uc8fc\uc7a5\uc774\ub2e4.<\/p>\n<p>\ud2b8\ub808\uc774\ub354 \uad00\uc810\uc5d0\uc11c\ub294 \ub2e8\uae30\ubb3c \uae08\ub9ac(\uc55e\ub2e8 \uae08\ub9ac)\uc5d0 \uc5f0\ub3d9\ub418\ub294 \uc218\uc775\ub960 \ud558\ub77d\uc774 \uc774\uc5b4\uc9c4 \ud604 \uad6c\uac04\uc774 \u2018\ub418\ub3cc\ub9bc \ubca0\ud305(\ud558\ub77d\ubd84\uc744 \ub418\ub3cc\ub9b4 \uac00\ub2a5\uc131\uc5d0 \uac78\uae30)\u2019 \uae30\ud68c\uac00 \ub420 \uc218 \uc788\ub2e4\uace0 \ubd24\ub2e4. 2026\ub144 6\uc6d4\u00b79\uc6d4 SOFR \uc120\ubb3c(\ub2f4\ubcf4\ubd80 \uc775\uc77c\uae08\ub9ac SOFR\uc744 \uae30\ucd08\ub85c \ud55c \uae08\ub9ac \uc120\ubb3c; \ubbf8\uad6d \ub2e8\uae30\uae08\ub9ac \uae30\ub300\ub97c \ubc18\uc601)\uc744 \ub9e4\ub3c4\ud558\ub294 \uc804\ub7b5\uc774 \uc720\ud6a8\ud560 \uc218 \uc788\uc73c\uba70, 4\uc6d4 \uc778\ud50c\ub808\uc774\uc158 \uc9c0\ud45c\uac00 \ubc1c\ud45c\ub418\uba74 \uc2dc\uc7a5\uc774 \u2018\ub354 \uc774\ub978 \uae08\ub9ac \uc778\ud558\u2019 \uac00\ub2a5\uc131\uc744 \ub0ae\ucdb0 \uac00\uaca9\uc5d0 \ub2e4\uc2dc \ubc18\uc601\ud560 \uc218 \uc788\ub2e4\uace0 \ud588\ub2e4. \ubcc0\ub3d9\uc131\uc9c0\uc218 VIX(\uc99d\uc2dc \ubcc0\ub3d9\uc131 \uae30\ub300\ub97c \ub098\ud0c0\ub0b4\ub294 \uc9c0\ud45c)\uac00 \uc774\ub0a0 13.5\uae4c\uc9c0 \ub5a8\uc5b4\uc9c4 \uac83\ub3c4 \ub370\uc774\ud130\uc758 \uc5c7\uac08\ub9bc\uc744 \uace0\ub824\ud558\uba74 \uc548\uc774\ud558\ub2e4\ub294 \ud3c9\uac00\ub2e4.<\/p>\n<p>\ub530\ub77c\uc11c \ud5a5\ud6c4 \uba87 \uc8fc\ub294 \uc2e0\uc911\ud55c \ud0dc\ub3c4\uac00 \ud544\uc694\ud558\uba70, \ub2e8\uae30\uc801\uc73c\ub85c\ub294 \u2018\uae08\ub9ac\uac00 \ub354 \uc624\ub798 \ub192\uc740 \uc218\uc900\uc744 \uc720\uc9c0\u2019\ud560 \uac00\ub2a5\uc131\uc5d0 \ub300\ube44\ud55c \ud3ec\uc9c0\uc154\ub2dd(\ud22c\uc790 \ud3ec\uc9c0\uc158 \uad6c\uc131)\uc5d0 \ucd08\uc810\uc744 \ub9de\ucd9c \ud544\uc694\uac00 \uc788\ub2e4\uace0 \ud588\ub2e4. \uc8fc\uc2dd\uc9c0\uc218 \uc635\uc158\uc774\ub098 \uae08\ub9ac\uc120\ubb3c \uc635\uc158\uc744 \ud1b5\ud574 \ub9cc\uae30\uac00 \uc9e7\uace0 \uac00\uaca9\uc774 \ub0ae\uc740 \ubcc0\ub3d9\uc131(\uc635\uc158 \uac00\uaca9\uc5d0 \ubc18\uc601\ub41c \ubcc0\ub3d9\uc131 \uae30\ub300)\uc744 \ub9e4\uc218\ud558\uba74, \ub9e4\ud30c\uc801(\uae08\ub9ac \uc778\uc0c1 \ub610\ub294 \uace0\uae08\ub9ac \uc720\uc9c0 \uc120\ud638) \uc11c\ud504\ub77c\uc774\uc988\uc5d0 \ub300\ud55c \ud5e4\uc9c0(\uc704\ud5d8 \uc644\ud654 \uc218\ub2e8)\uac00 \ub420 \uc218 \uc788\ub2e4\uace0 \ub367\ubd99\uc600\ub2e4. \ub450 \ucc28\ub840 \uae08\ub9ac \uc778\ud558 \uc804\ub9dd \uc790\uccb4\ub294 \uc720\uc9c0\ud558\uc9c0\ub9cc, \uc544\uc9c1 \uc2dc\uc810\uc774 \ub0a8\uc544 \uc788\uc5b4 \uc9c0\uae08\ubd80\ud130 \uadf8 \ubc29\ud5a5\uc5d0 \uacfc\ub3c4\ud558\uac8c \ubca0\ud305\ud558\ub294 \uac83\uc740 \uc774\ub974\ub2e4\ub294 \ucde8\uc9c0\ub2e4.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>\u201c\ubb3c\uac00 \uc548\ub3c4\u201d\ub294 \uc544\uc9c1 \uc774\ub974\ub2e4. 3\uc6d4 \ucf54\uc5b4 CPI\u00b7\uc288\ud37c\ucf54\uc5b4 \ub454\ud654\ub85c \ucf54\uc5b4 PCE 0.23% \uc804\ub9dd. \uadf8\ub7ec\ub098 4\uc6d4 \ud56d\uacf5\uad8c\u00b7\uc8fc\uac70\ube44 \ubc18\ub4f1 \uac00\ub2a5, 2026\ub144 \ub450 \ucc28\ub840 \uc778\ud558 \uc720\uc9c0.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-44402","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/44402","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=44402"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/44402\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=44402"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=44402"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=44402"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}