\ubbf8 \ub2ec\ub7ec \uc778\ub371\uc2a4(DXY)\ub294 \ubbf8\uad6d \uac1c\uc778\uc18c\ube44\uc9c0\ucd9c(PCE\u00b7Personal Consumption Expenditures, \uac1c\uc778\uc774 \uc2e4\uc81c\ub85c \uc9c0\ucd9c\ud55c \uc18c\ube44\ub97c \ubc14\ud0d5\uc73c\ub85c \ub9cc\ub4e0 \ubb3c\uac00 \uc9c0\ud45c) \ubcf4\uace0\uc11c\uc5d0\uc11c \ubb3c\uac00\uac00 \uc5ec\uc804\ud788 \uc27d\uac8c \ub0b4\ub824\uac00\uc9c0 \uc54a\ub294 \ubaa8\uc2b5\uc774 \ud655\uc778\ub418\uba74\uc11c \uc5f0\ubc29\uc900\ube44\uc81c\ub3c4(Fed\u00b7\ubbf8 \uc911\uc559\uc740\ud589)\uac00 \uc2e0\uc911\ud55c \ud0dc\ub3c4\ub97c \uc720\uc9c0, 98.80\uc120\uc73c\ub85c \ud558\ub77d\ud588\ub2e4. \uc2e0\uaddc \uc2e4\uc5c5\uc218\ub2f9 \uccad\uad6c\uac74\uc218(Initial Jobless Claims\u00b7\uc2e4\uc5c5\uc218\ub2f9\uc744 \ucc98\uc74c \uc2e0\uccad\ud55c \uac74\uc218)\uac00 \uc608\uc0c1\uc744 \uc6c3\ub3cc\uace0, \ubbf8 \uad6d\ucc44\uae08\ub9ac(US Treasury yields)\uac00 \ub0b4\ub824\uac04 \uc810\ub3c4 \ub2ec\ub7ec\uc5d0 \ubd80\ub2f4\uc73c\ub85c \uc791\uc6a9\ud588\ub2e4.<\/p>\n
\uc9c0\uc815\ud559 \ub274\uc2a4\ub294 \uc774\uc2a4\ub77c\uc5d8 \uce21 \uc778\uc0ac\uac00 \u201c\ubbf8\uad6d\uc758 \uc555\ubc15\uc73c\ub85c \ub808\ubc14\ub17c \ub0b4 \uc791\uc804\uc774 \uace7 \uc644\ud654\ub420 \uc218 \uc788\ub2e4\u201d\uace0 \uc5b8\uae09\ud558\uace0, \uc774\uc2a4\ub77c\uc5d8\uc774 \ub808\ubc14\ub17c\uacfc \ud5e4\uc988\ubcfc\ub77c(\ub808\ubc14\ub17c \ubb34\uc7a5\ub2e8\uccb4) \ubb34\uc7a5\ud574\uc81c\uc5d0 \ub300\ud55c \uc9c1\uc811 \ub300\ud654\ub97c \uc2dc\uc0ac\ud558\uba74\uc11c \ub2e4\uc18c \uc9c4\uc815\ub418\ub294 \ubd84\uc704\uae30\uc600\ub2e4. \ub2e4\ub9cc \uad70\uc0ac \ud65c\ub3d9\uc740 \uacc4\uc18d\ub410\uace0, \uc5ed\ub0b4 \uc704\ud5d8\uc740 \uc5ec\uc804\ud788 \ub192\uc558\ub2e4.<\/p>\n EUR\/USD\ub294 \ubbf8 \uad6d\ucc44\uae08\ub9ac \ud558\ub77d\uacfc \uc704\ud5d8\uc120\ud638 \uc2ec\ub9ac(\ub9ac\uc2a4\ud06c\ub97c \ub354 \uac10\uc218\ud558\ub824\ub294 \ud22c\uc790 \uc2ec\ub9ac)\uac00 \uc18c\ud3ed \uac1c\uc120\ub418\uba70 1.1700\uc120\uc73c\ub85c \uc0c1\uc2b9\ud588\ub2e4. GBP\/USD\ub294 \ub2ec\ub7ec \uc57d\uc138\ub85c 1.3430\uc120 \ubd80\uadfc\uae4c\uc9c0 \ub418\ub3cc\ub9bc\uc774 \ub098\ud0c0\ub0ac\ub2e4. USD\/JPY\ub294 \uae08\ub9ac \ud558\ub77d\uc73c\ub85c \uce90\ub9ac(\uae08\ub9ac\uac00 \ub192\uc740 \ud1b5\ud654\ub97c \uc0ac\uc11c \uc774\uc790\ucc28\ub97c \ub178\ub9ac\ub294 \uac70\ub798) \ub9e4\ub825\uc774 \uc904\uba70 159.00\uc120 \ubd80\uadfc\uc5d0\uc11c \uc6c0\uc9c1\uc600\ub2e4. AUD\/USD\ub294 0.7080\uc120\uc73c\ub85c \uc18c\ud3ed \uc0c1\uc2b9\ud588\ub2e4.<\/p>\n WTI \uc720\uac00\ub294 \ub192\uc740 \uc218\uc900\uc744 \uc720\uc9c0\ud588\uc9c0\ub9cc, \ub2f9\uc7a5 \uacf5\uae09 \ucc28\uc9c8 \uc6b0\ub824\uac00 \uc644\ud654\ub418\uba70 \ub2e4\uc18c \uc548\uc815\ub410\ub2e4. \ub2e4\ub9cc \uc911\ub3d9 \uac08\ub4f1\uc774 \uc774\uc5b4\uc9c0\uba74\uc11c \uc720\uac00\ub97c \uc9c0\uc9c0\ud588\ub2e4. \uae08\uc740 \ub2ec\ub7ec \uc57d\uc138\uc640 \uae08\ub9ac \ud558\ub77d, \uc9c0\uc815\ud559 \uc704\ud5d8\uc73c\ub85c \uc628\uc2a4\ub2f9 4,771\ub2ec\ub7ec \ubd80\uadfc\uc744 \uc720\uc9c0\ud588\ub2e4.<\/p>\n 4\uc6d4 10\uc77c(\uae08) \uc8fc\uc694 \uc9c0\ud45c\ub85c\ub294 \ub3c5\uc77c HICP(\uc870\ud654 \uc18c\ube44\uc790\ubb3c\uac00\uc9c0\uc218\u00b7\uc720\ub7fd \uae30\uc900\uc5d0 \ub9de\ucd98 \ubb3c\uac00 \uc9c0\ud45c), \uce90\ub098\ub2e4 \uace0\uc6a9, \ubbf8\uad6d CPI(\uc18c\ube44\uc790\ubb3c\uac00\uc9c0\uc218\u00b7\uac00\uacc4\uac00 \uccb4\uac10\ud558\ub294 \ubb3c\uac00), \ubbf8\uad6d \uacf5\uc7a5\uc8fc\ubb38, \ubbf8\uc2dc\uac04\ub300 \uc18c\ube44\uc790\uc2ec\ub9ac\uc9c0\uc218, \ubbf8\uc2dc\uac04\ub300 1\ub144\u00b75\ub144 \uae30\ub300\uc778\ud50c\ub808\uc774\uc158(\ud5a5\ud6c4 \ubb3c\uac00 \uc804\ub9dd), \ubbf8\uad6d \uc6d4\uac04 \uc7ac\uc815\uc218\uc9c0(\uc815\ubd80\uc758 \uc6d4\uac04 \uc218\uc785\u00b7\uc9c0\ucd9c \ucc28\uc774)\uac00 \uc788\ub2e4.<\/p>\n WTI\ub294 \ubbf8\uad6d\uc0b0 \uacbd\uc9c8\uc720(\uac00\ubccd\uace0 \ud669 \ud568\ub7c9\uc774 \ub0ae\uc544 \uc815\uc81c\uc5d0 \uc720\ub9ac\ud55c \uc6d0\uc720)\ub85c, \ucfe0\uc2f1(Cushing) \ud5c8\ube0c(\ubbf8\uad6d \uc624\ud074\ub77c\ud638\ub9c8\uc8fc\uc758 \uc6d0\uc720 \uc778\ub3c4\u00b7\uc800\uc7a5 \uc911\uc2ec\uc9c0) \uac00\uaca9\uc744 \uae30\uc900\uc73c\ub85c \uac70\ub798\ub41c\ub2e4. \ube0c\ub80c\ud2b8(\ubd81\ud574\uc0b0)\uc640 \ub450\ubc14\uc774(\uc911\ub3d9\uc0b0)\uc640 \ud568\uaed8 \ud575\uc2ec \ubca4\uce58\ub9c8\ud06c(\ub300\ud45c \uac00\uaca9 \uae30\uc900) \uc911 \ud558\ub098\ub2e4. \uac00\uaca9\uc740 \uc218\uae09, \uc9c0\uc815\ud559, \uc81c\uc7ac, OPEC(\uc11d\uc720\uc218\ucd9c\uad6d\uae30\uad6c) \uacb0\uc815, \ub2ec\ub7ec, \uadf8\ub9ac\uace0 API\u00b7EIA\uc758 \ubbf8\uad6d \uc6d0\uc720 \uc7ac\uace0 \ud1b5\uacc4(API=\ubbf8 \uc11d\uc720\ud611\ud68c, EIA=\ubbf8 \uc5d0\ub108\uc9c0\uc815\ubcf4\uccad)\uc5d0 \uc601\ud5a5\uc744 \ubc1b\ub294\ub2e4. \ub450 \uc7ac\uace0 \ud1b5\uacc4\ub294 75%\uc758 \uacbd\uc6b0 1% \uc774\ub0b4\ub85c \ube44\uc2b7\ud558\uac8c \ub098\uc628\ub2e4.<\/p>\n \uc5f0\uc900\uc740 \ub192\uc740 \ubb3c\uac00\uc640 \uc57d\ud574\uc9c0\uae30 \uc2dc\uc791\ud55c \uace0\uc6a9 \uc0ac\uc774\uc5d0\uc11c \uc5b4\ub824\uc6b4 \uc120\ud0dd\uc744 \ud558\uace0 \uc788\ub2e4. 2025\ub144 \ud558\ubc18\uae30\ubd80\ud130 \uc774\ub7f0 \ud750\ub984\uc774 \ub69c\ub837\ud574\uc84c\ub2e4. \uadfc\uc6d0\ubb3c\uac00(core inflation\u00b7\ubcc0\ub3d9\uc774 \ud070 \uc2dd\ud488\u00b7\uc5d0\ub108\uc9c0\ub97c \uc81c\uc678\ud55c \ubb3c\uac00)\ub294 \ud3c9\uade0 3.1%\ub85c \uc798 \ub0b4\ub824\uac00\uc9c0 \uc54a\uc558\uace0, \uc8fc\uac04 \uc2e4\uc5c5\uc218\ub2f9 \uccad\uad6c\ub294 \uafb8\uc900\ud788 \ub298\uc5b4 \ucd5c\uadfc 15\uac1c\uc6d4 \ucd5c\uace0\uce58\uc778 24\ub9cc5000\uac74\uae4c\uc9c0 \uc62c\ub77c\uac14\ub2e4. \uc774 \ucda9\ub3cc\ub85c \ud5a5\ud6c4 \uae08\ub9ac(\uae30\uc900\uae08\ub9ac) \ubc29\ud5a5\uc5d0 \ub300\ud55c \ubd88\ud655\uc2e4\uc131\uc774 \ucee4\uc838, \uc55e\uc73c\ub85c \uba87 \uc8fc \ub3d9\uc548 \uc5f0\uc900 \ubc29\ud5a5\uc5d0 \ud655\uc2e0\uc744 \ub450\uace0 \ubca0\ud305\ud558\ub294 \uac70\ub798\ub294 \uc704\ud5d8\uc774 \ud06c\ub2e4.<\/p>\n \uc774\ub7f0 \ubd88\ud655\uc2e4\uc131\uc744 \uac10\uc548\ud558\uba74 \ubcc0\ub3d9\uc131(\uac00\uaca9\uc774 \ud06c\uac8c \ud754\ub4e4\ub9ac\ub294 \uc815\ub3c4) \ud655\ub300\uc5d0 \ub300\ube44\ud574\uc57c \ud55c\ub2e4. \ud2b9\ud788 \uc624\ub298 \uc911\uc694\ud55c \ubbf8\uad6d CPI \ubc1c\ud45c \uc804\ud6c4\uac00 \ud575\uc2ec\uc774\ub2e4. \ud070 \uac00\uaca9 \ubcc0\ub3d9\uc5d0\uc11c \uc774\uc775\uc744 \ub178\ub9ac\ub294 \uc635\uc158 \uc804\ub7b5(\ubbf8\ub9ac \uc815\ud55c \uac00\uaca9\uc5d0 \uc0ac\uace0\ud314 \uc218 \uc788\ub294 \uad8c\ub9ac), \uc608\ub97c \ub4e4\uc5b4 \uc8fc\uac00\uc9c0\uc218 \uc120\ubb3c\uc774\ub098 EUR\/USD \uac19\uc740 \uc8fc\uc694 \ud1b5\ud654\uc30d\uc5d0 \ub300\ud55c \ub871 \uc2a4\ud2b8\ub798\ub4e4(long straddle\u00b7\uac19\uc740 \ub9cc\uae30\u00b7\uac19\uc740 \ud589\uc0ac\uac00\uc758 \ucf5c\uc635\uc158\uacfc \ud48b\uc635\uc158\uc744 \ub3d9\uc2dc\uc5d0 \ub9e4\uc218\ud574 \ubc29\ud5a5\uc774 \uc544\ub2c8\ub77c \u2018\ud070 \ubcc0\ub3d9\u2019\uc5d0 \ubca0\ud305)\uc740 \uace0\ub824\ud560 \ub9cc\ud558\ub2e4. \uc774\ub807\uac8c \ud558\uba74 \ubc29\ud5a5\uc744 \ub9de\ud788\uc9c0 \ubabb\ud574\ub3c4, \uc2dc\uc7a5\uc774 \ud06c\uac8c \uc6c0\uc9c1\uc77c \ub54c \ub300\uc751\ud560 \uc218 \uc788\ub2e4.<\/p>\n \ub2ec\ub7ec \uc57d\uc138\ub294 \ubbf8 \uad6d\ucc44\uae08\ub9ac \ud558\ub77d\uc5d0 \ub300\ud55c \uc9c1\uc811 \ubc18\uc751\uc774\uba70, \uc2dc\uc7a5\uc774 \ub354 \uc774\ub978 \uae08\ub9ac \uc778\ud558 \uac00\ub2a5\uc131\uc744 \ubc18\uc601\ud558\uae30 \uc2dc\uc791\ud588\uae30 \ub54c\ubb38\uc774\ub2e4. \uc774 \ud750\ub984\uc740 2024\ub144 \uc911\ubc18 \uacbd\uae30 \ub454\ud654 \uc2e0\ud638\uac00 \ucc98\uc74c \ub098\ud0c0\ub09c \ub4a4 \ub2ec\ub7ec\uac00 \uba87 \ub2ec\uac04 \uc57d\uc138\ub97c \ubcf4\uc600\ub358 \ub2f9\uc2dc\uc758 \uac00\uaca9 \uc6c0\uc9c1\uc784\uacfc \ube44\uc2b7\ud558\ub2e4. \ub530\ub77c\uc11c \ub354 \ub9e4\ud30c\uc801(\uae08\ub9ac \uc778\uc0c1\u00b7\uae34\ucd95\uc5d0 \ub354 \uc801\uadf9\uc801\uc778) \uc131\ud5a5\uc758 \uc911\uc559\uc740\ud589\uc744 \uac00\uc9c4 \ud1b5\ud654 \ub300\ube44 \ub2ec\ub7ec \ucd94\uac00 \uc57d\uc138\uc5d0 \ub300\ube44\ud55c \ud3ec\uc9c0\uc158(\ub9e4\uc218\u00b7\ub9e4\ub3c4 \ubcf4\uc720 \uc0c1\ud0dc)\uc744 \uac80\ud1a0\ud560 \ud544\uc694\uac00 \uc788\ub2e4.<\/p>\n \uc6d0\uc720\uc758 \uacbd\uc6b0 \uc774\uc2a4\ub77c\uc5d8\uacfc \ub808\ubc14\ub17c \uac04 \uae34\uc7a5 \uc644\ud654 \uac00\ub2a5\uc131\uc740 WTI \uc0c1\uc2b9\uc744 \uc77c\uc2dc\uc801\uc73c\ub85c \uc81c\ud55c\ud588\uc9c0\ub9cc, \uc5ed\ub0b4 \uae34\uc7a5\uc740 \uc720\uac00 \ud558\ub2e8\uc744 \uc9c0\uc9c0\ud55c\ub2e4. OPEC+(OPEC\uacfc \ub7ec\uc2dc\uc544 \ub4f1 \ube44OPEC \uc0b0\uc720\uad6d \ud611\uc758\uccb4)\uac00 \uc9c0\ub09c\ub2ec \uac10\uc0b0(\uc0dd\uc0b0 \ucd95\uc18c)\uc744 \uc720\uc9c0\ud558\uae30\ub85c \ud55c \uacb0\uc815\ub3c4 \uc9c0\uc9c0 \uc694\uc778\uc73c\ub85c, \uc720\uac00\uac00 \uc881\uc740 \ubc94\uc704\uc5d0\uc11c \uc6c0\uc9c1\uc77c \uac00\ub2a5\uc131\uc774 \ud06c\ub2e4. \uc774 \ud658\uacbd\uc5d0\uc11c\ub294 \uc678\uac00\uaca9(out-of-the-money\u00b7\ud604\uc7ac \uac00\uaca9\uc5d0\uc11c \ubc14\ub85c \uc774\uc775\uc774 \ub098\uc9c0 \uc54a\ub294) \ucf5c\uc635\uc158\uc744 \ub9e4\ub3c4\ud574 \ub192\uc740 \ud504\ub9ac\ubbf8\uc5c4(\uc635\uc158 \uac00\uaca9)\uc744 \uc218\ucde8\ud558\ub294 \uc804\ub7b5\uc774 \uc218\uc775\ud615\uc73c\ub85c \uac00\ub2a5\ud558\ub2e4.<\/p>\n \uae08\uc740 \uc9c0\uc815\ud559 \uc704\ud5d8 \ud504\ub9ac\ubbf8\uc5c4(\uc704\ud5d8\uc774 \ucee4\uc9c8 \ub54c \uc548\uc804\uc790\uc0b0\uc5d0 \ubd99\ub294 \ucd94\uac00 \uc218\uc694)\uacfc \ubbf8 \uad6d\ucc44\uae08\ub9ac \ud558\ub77d\uc758 \uc218\ud61c\ub97c \ub3d9\uc2dc\uc5d0 \ubc1b\uace0 \uc788\ub2e4. \uae08\uc740 \uc774\uc790\uac00 \uc5c6\ub294 \uc790\uc0b0\uc774\ub77c, \uae08\ub9ac\uac00 \ub0b4\ub824\uac00\uba74 \ubcf4\uc720 \ubd80\ub2f4(\uae30\ud68c\ube44\uc6a9)\uc774 \uc904\uc5b4\ub4e0\ub2e4. \uc774\ubc88 \uc8fc \ubbf8 10\ub144\ubb3c \uae08\ub9ac\uac00 4.0% \uc544\ub798\ub85c \ub0b4\ub824\uc624\uba74\uc11c \uae08\uc758 \uae30\ubc18 \uc5ec\uac74\uc740 \uc5ec\uc804\ud788 \uacac\uc870\ud558\ub2e4. \uac00\uaca9 \uc870\uc815\uc740 \ub9e4\uc218 \uae30\ud68c\ub85c \ubcfc \uc218 \uc788\uc73c\uba70, \ud2b9\ud788 \uc624\ub298 \ubbf8\uad6d\uacfc \ub3c5\uc77c \ubb3c\uac00 \uc9c0\ud45c\uac00 \uc608\uc0c1\ubcf4\ub2e4 \uac15\ud558\uac8c \ub098\uc624\uba74(\uc0c1\ubc29 \uc11c\ud504\ub77c\uc774\uc988) \uc774\ub7f0 \ud750\ub984\uc774 \uac15\ud654\ub420 \uc218 \uc788\ub2e4.<\/p>\n VT Markets \uc2e4\uacc4\uc88c \ub9cc\ub4e4\uae30<\/a>\u00a0\ubc0f\u00a0\uc9c0\uae08 \uac70\ub798 \uc2dc\uc791\ud558\uae30<\/a>\u00a0<\/b><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" PCE \ub454\ud654 \ub09c\ud56d\uc5d0 \uc5f0\uc900 \uc2e0\uc911\ub860, DXY 98.80 \ud558\ub77d. \uc2e4\uc5c5\uccad\uad6c\u2191\u00b7\uad6d\ucc44\uae08\ub9ac\u2193\ub85c \ub2ec\ub7ec \uc57d\uc138, \uc720\ub85c\u00b7\ud30c\uc6b4\ub4dc \ubc18\ub4f1. \uc911\ub3d9 \uae34\uc7a5 \uc644\ud654 \uae30\ub300 \uc18d \uc720\uac00\u00b7\uae08 \uacac\uc870, CPI \uc55e \ubcc0\ub3d9\uc131 \uacbd\uacc4.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-44325","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/44325","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=44325"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/44325\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=44325"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=44325"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=44325"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}\uc8fc\uc694 \uc678\ud658 \uc6c0\uc9c1\uc784\uacfc \uc2dc\uc7a5 \ubd84\uc704\uae30<\/h3>\n
\uc5f0\uc900\uc758 \ubb3c\uac00\u00b7\uace0\uc6a9 \uade0\ud615<\/h3>\n