{"id":43759,"date":"2026-03-31T20:37:50","date_gmt":"2026-03-31T20:37:50","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr\/uncategorized\/%ec%98%a5%ec%8b%9c%eb%8d%b4%ed%84%b8-%ed%8e%98%ed%8a%b8%eb%a1%a4%eb%a6%ac%ec%97%84-%ec%a3%bc%ea%b0%80-%ea%b8%80%eb%a1%9c%eb%b2%8c-%ec%9d%b4%eb%b2%a4%ed%8a%b8-%ec%86%8d-%ea%b0%95%ec%84%b8\/"},"modified":"2026-03-31T20:37:50","modified_gmt":"2026-03-31T20:37:50","slug":"%ec%98%a5%ec%8b%9c%eb%8d%b4%ed%84%b8-%ed%8e%98%ed%8a%b8%eb%a1%a4%eb%a6%ac%ec%97%84-%ec%a3%bc%ea%b0%80-%ea%b8%80%eb%a1%9c%eb%b2%8c-%ec%9d%b4%eb%b2%a4%ed%8a%b8-%ec%86%8d-%ea%b0%95%ec%84%b8","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/live-updates\/%ec%98%a5%ec%8b%9c%eb%8d%b4%ed%84%b8-%ed%8e%98%ed%8a%b8%eb%a1%a4%eb%a6%ac%ec%97%84-%ec%a3%bc%ea%b0%80-%ea%b8%80%eb%a1%9c%eb%b2%8c-%ec%9d%b4%eb%b2%a4%ed%8a%b8-%ec%86%8d-%ea%b0%95%ec%84%b8\/","title":{"rendered":"\uc625\uc2dc\ub374\ud138 \ud398\ud2b8\ub864\ub9ac\uc5c4 \uc8fc\uac00, \uae00\ub85c\ubc8c \uc774\ubca4\ud2b8 \uc18d \uac15\uc138\u2026\uc5d8\ub9ac\uc5c7 \ud30c\ub3d9 \ubd84\uc11d, 100\ub2ec\ub7ec\uae4c\uc9c0 \ucd94\uac00 \uc0c1\uc2b9 \uac00\ub2a5\uc131 \uc2dc\uc0ac"},"content":{"rendered":"\uc625\uc2dc\ub374\ud138 \ud398\ud2b8\ub864\ub9ac\uc5c4(Occidental Petroleum, NYSE: OXY)\uc740 2022\ub144 \uace0\uc810 \ub300\ube44 54% \ud558\ub77d\ud588\uc73c\uba70, 3\ub2e8\uacc4\ub85c \ub0b4\ub824\uac00\ub294 \u2018\uc9c0\uadf8\uc7ac\uadf8(zigzag\u00b7A-B-C\ub85c \uad6c\uc131\ub418\ub294 \uc870\uc815 \ud30c\ub3d9)\u2019 \ud615\ud0dc\ub85c \uc6c0\uc9c1\uc600\ub2e4. \uc774 \ud558\ub77d\uc740 (II)\ud30c(\uc5d8\ub9ac\uc5c7 \ud30c\ub3d9\uc5d0\uc11c \ud070 \uc0c1\uc2b9 \ud750\ub984 \uc911\uac04\uc5d0 \ub098\ud0c0\ub098\ub294 \uc870\uc815 \uad6c\uac04)\ub97c \ub9cc\ub4e4\uc5c8\uace0, 2025\ub144 4\uc6d4 34.78\ub2ec\ub7ec\uc5d0\uc11c \uc800\uc810\uc744 \uae30\ub85d\ud588\ub2e4.\n\n\uc774 \uc800\uc810 \uc774\ud6c4 \uc8fc\uac00\ub294 \uc0c8\ub85c\uc6b4 \u2018\ucda9\uaca9\ud30c(impulse\u00b75\uac1c\uc758 \uc791\uc740 \ud30c\ub3d9\uc73c\ub85c \uad6c\uc131\ub418\ub294 \uac15\ud55c \ucd94\uc138 \uad6c\uac04)\u2019 \ud328\ud134\uc73c\ub85c \ubc18\ub4f1\uc744 \uc2dc\uc791\ud588\ub2e4. \ud604\uc7ac\ub294 I\ud30c \uc548\uc5d0\uc11c \uccab \ubc88\uc9f8 5\ud30c \uc0c1\uc2b9(5\uac1c\uc758 \uc18c\ud30c\ub3d9\uc73c\ub85c \uc774\ub8e8\uc5b4\uc9c4 \ucd08\uae30 \uc0c1\uc2b9) \ub9c8\ubb34\ub9ac \uad6c\uac04\uc5d0 \uadfc\uc811\ud574 \uc788\ub2e4.\n\n

\ud53c\ubcf4\ub098\uce58 \ud655\uc7a5 \ubaa9\ud45c \uad6c\uac04<\/h3>\n\u2018\ud53c\ubcf4\ub098\uce58 \ud655\uc7a5(Fibonacci extension\u00b7\uc774\uc804 \uac00\uaca9 \uc6c0\uc9c1\uc784\uc758 \ube44\uc728\uc744 \uc774\uc6a9\ud574 \ub2e4\uc74c \ubaa9\ud45c\uac00\ub97c \ucd94\uc815\ud558\ub294 \ubc29\ubc95)\u2019 61.8%\ub97c \uc801\uc6a9\ud558\uba74 \ubaa9\ud45c \uad6c\uac04\uc740 77~87\ub2ec\ub7ec\ub2e4. (I)\ud30c \uace0\uc810\uc744 \ub3cc\ud30c\ud558\uba74 \uc8fc\uac04 \uae30\uc900\uc758 \uc0c8\ub85c\uc6b4 \uc0c1\uc2b9 \ud750\ub984\uc774 \ud655\uc778\ub41c\ub2e4.\n\n\ud655\uc778\uc774 \uc774\ub904\uc9c8 \uacbd\uc6b0 \ubaa9\ud45c\uac00\ub294 103~119\ub2ec\ub7ec\uc758 \u2018\ub3d9\uc77c \uae38\uc774 \uad6c\uac04(equal-legs zone\u00b7\uc55e\uc120 \uc0c1\uc2b9 \uad6c\uac04\uacfc \ube44\uc2b7\ud55c \ud3ed\ub9cc\ud07c \ucd94\uac00 \uc0c1\uc2b9\uc744 \uac00\uc815\ud55c \ubaa9\ud45c \uc601\uc5ed)\u2019\uc73c\ub85c \uc774\ub3d9\ud55c\ub2e4. \ubd84\uc11d\uc0c1\uc73c\ub85c\ub294 \uc0ac\uc0c1 \ucd5c\uace0\uac00(\uc62c\ud0c0\uc784\ud558\uc774) \uc7ac\ub3c4\uc804 \uac00\ub2a5\uc131\ub3c4 \uc5f4\ub824 \uc788\ub2e4.\n\n\ucd94\uac00 \uac00\uc18d\uc740 (III) \ub0b4 III\ud30c \uc2dc\uc791\uacfc \uc5f0\uacb0\ub41c\ub2e4. \ud574\ub2f9 \ud30c\ub3d9\uc774 \uc2dc\uc791\ub418\uba74 \uc0c1\uc2b9 \ud0c4\ub825\uc774 \ub354 \uac15\ud574\uc9c8 \uac00\ub2a5\uc131\uc774 \ud06c\ub2e4.\n\n2025\ub144 4\uc6d4 34.78\ub2ec\ub7ec \uc800\uc810 \uc774\ud6c4 \uc625\uc2dc\ub374\ud138\uc740 \ub69c\ub837\ud55c \uc0c1\uc2b9 \ucd94\uc138\ub97c \uc774\uc5b4\uc654\ub2e4. \ud604\uc7ac \uc8fc\uac00\ub294 1\ucc28 \ubaa9\ud45c \uad6c\uac04\uc778 77~87\ub2ec\ub7ec \uc0c1\ub2e8\uc5d0 \uadfc\uc811\ud574 \uc788\uc73c\uba70, \uc774\ubc88 \uccab \ub7a0\ub9ac\uc758 \ud575\uc2ec \uc774\uc815\ud45c\ub85c \ud3c9\uac00\ub41c\ub2e4. \uc774 \ud750\ub984\uc740 WTI \uc6d0\uc720(WTI crude\u00b7\ubbf8\uad6d \uc11c\ubd80\ud14d\uc0ac\uc2a4\uc0b0 \uc6d0\uc720\ub85c \uad6d\uc81c \uc720\uac00\uc758 \ub300\ud45c \uae30\uc900) \uac00\uaca9\uc774 \ucd5c\uadfc \ubc30\ub7f4\ub2f9 95\ub2ec\ub7ec \uc704\uc5d0\uc11c \uc548\uc815\ub41c \uc810\uc774 \ubc30\uacbd\uc774\ub2e4. \uc774\ub294 \uae00\ub85c\ubc8c \uacf5\uae09 \uc6b0\ub824\uac00 \uc9c0\uc18d\ub41c \uc601\ud5a5\uc774\ub2e4.\n\n

3\ud30c \ub300\ube44 \uc635\uc158 \ud3ec\uc9c0\uc154\ub2dd<\/h3>\n\u2018\ud30c\uc0dd\uc0c1\ud488(derivatives\u00b7\uc635\uc158\u00b7\uc120\ubb3c\ucc98\ub7fc \uae30\ucd08\uc790\uc0b0 \uac00\uaca9\uc5d0 \ub530\ub77c \uac00\uce58\uac00 \ubcc0\ud558\ub294 \uc0c1\ud488)\u2019 \ud22c\uc790\uc790 \uad00\uc810\uc5d0\uc11c\ub294, \ub2e4\uc74c \ud070 \uc0c1\uc2b9 \uc804 \ub2e8\uae30\uc801\uc73c\ub85c \u2018\ud6a1\ubcf4\u00b7\uc870\uc815(consolidation\u00b7\uae09\ub4f1 \ud6c4 \uc228 \uace0\ub974\uae30 \uad6c\uac04)\u2019\uc774 \ub098\ud0c0\ub0a0 \uc218 \uc788\uc74c\uc744 \uc2dc\uc0ac\ud55c\ub2e4. \uc774\uc5d0 \ub530\ub77c \ub2f9\ubd84\uac04\uc740 \ud589\uc0ac\uac00 75\ub2ec\ub7ec \ub610\ub294 80\ub2ec\ub7ec \uc218\uc900\uc758 \u2018\uc678\uac00\uaca9 \ud48b(out-of-the-money put\u00b7\ud604\uc7ac \uc8fc\uac00\ubcf4\ub2e4 \ub0ae\uc740 \ud589\uc0ac\uac00\uc758 \ud48b\uc635\uc158)\u2019\uc744 \ub9e4\ub3c4\ud574 \uc635\uc158 \ud504\ub9ac\ubbf8\uc5c4(\uc635\uc158 \uac00\uaca9)\uc744 \ubc1b\ub294 \uc804\ub7b5\uc744 \uace0\ub824\ud560 \uc218 \uc788\ub2e4. \ud5a5\ud6c4 \uba87 \uc8fc \ub3d9\uc548 \ub2e8\uae30 \uc57d\uc138\uac00 \ub098\uc624\uba74 \ub354 \uc720\ub9ac\ud55c \uac00\uaca9\uc5d0 \u2018\ucf5c\uc635\uc158(call option\u00b7\uc815\ud574\uc9c4 \uac00\uaca9\uc5d0 \uc0b4 \uc218 \uc788\ub294 \uad8c\ub9ac)\u2019\uc744 \ub9e4\uc218\ud560 \uae30\ud68c\uac00 \ub420 \uc218\ub3c4 \uc788\ub2e4.\n\n\ud575\uc2ec \uae30\ud68c\ub294 \uac15\ud55c III\ud30c\uc5d0 \ub300\ube44\ud55c \ud3ec\uc9c0\uc154\ub2dd\uc774\ub2e4. III\ud30c \ubaa9\ud45c\ub294 103~119\ub2ec\ub7ec \uad6c\uac04\uc774\ub2e4. \uc774\ub97c \uac10\uc548\ud558\uba74 3~6\uac1c\uc6d4 \ub9cc\uae30\uc758 \ucf5c\uc635\uc158, \uc608\ub97c \ub4e4\uc5b4 2026\ub144 9\uc6d4 \ub9cc\uae30 95\ub2ec\ub7ec \ub610\ub294 100\ub2ec\ub7ec \ucf5c\uc774 \uc608\uc0c1\ub418\ub294 \uac00\uc18d \uad6c\uac04\uc744 \ub178\ub9ac\ub294 \ub300\uc548\uc774 \ub420 \uc218 \uc788\ub2e4. \ub9cc\uae30\ub97c \uae38\uac8c \uc7a1\uc73c\uba74 \u2018\uc2dc\uac04\uac00\uce58 \uac10\uc18c(time decay\u00b7\ub9cc\uae30\uac00 \uac00\uae4c\uc6cc\uc9c8\uc218\ub85d \uc635\uc158 \uac00\uce58\uac00 \uc904\uc5b4\ub4dc\ub294 \ud604\uc0c1)\u2019 \ubd80\ub2f4\uc744 \uc904\uc774\uba74\uc11c \uc0c1\uc2b9 \ud750\ub984\uc774 \uc804\uac1c\ub420 \uc2dc\uac04\uc744 \ud655\ubcf4\ud560 \uc218 \uc788\ub2e4.\n\n\uc774 \uae30\uc220\uc801 \uad00\uc810\uc740 \uc625\uc2dc\ub374\ud138\uc758 \uc2e4\uc801\uc5d0\uc11c\ub3c4 \ub4b7\ubc1b\uce68\ub41c\ub2e4. \ud68c\uc0ac\ub294 2025\ub144 4\ubd84\uae30 \uc2e4\uc801\uc5d0\uc11c \uc2dc\uc7a5 \uc608\uc0c1\uce58\ub97c \uc6c3\ub3cc\uc558\uace0, \uc789\uc5ec\ud604\uae08\ud750\ub984(FCF\u00b7\uc601\uc5c5\uc73c\ub85c \ubc8c\uc5b4\ub4e4\uc778 \ud604\uae08\uc5d0\uc11c \uc124\ube44\ud22c\uc790 \ub4f1\uc744 \ube80 \uc2e4\uc81c\ub85c \ub0a8\ub294 \ud604\uae08)\uc774 21\uc5b5\ub2ec\ub7ec\ub97c \ub118\uc5c8\ub2e4. \ub610\ud55c \ud604\uc7ac \u2018\ub0b4\uc7ac\ubcc0\ub3d9\uc131(implied volatility\u00b7\uc635\uc158 \uac00\uaca9\uc5d0 \ubc18\uc601\ub41c \ud5a5\ud6c4 \ubcc0\ub3d9\uc131 \uae30\ub300\uce58)\u2019\uc774 \uc57d 35%\ub85c, 2022\ub144 \uc5d0\ub108\uc9c0 \uae09\ub4f1\uae30 \ub2f9\uc2dc 50%\ub97c \uc6c3\ub3cc\ub358 \uc218\uc900\ubcf4\ub2e4 \ub0ae\ub2e4. \uc774\ub294 \ub300\ud3ed \ubcc0\ub3d9 \uac00\ub2a5\uc131 \ub300\ube44 \uc635\uc158 \uac00\uaca9\uc774 \uc544\uc9c1 \uacfc\ub3c4\ud558\uac8c \ube44\uc2f8\uc9c0 \uc54a\uc744 \uc218 \uc788\uc74c\uc744 \uc2dc\uc0ac\ud55c\ub2e4.\n\n\ub2f9\ubd84\uac04 \ud575\uc2ec \uc2e0\ud638\ub294 \ucd5c\uadfc (I)\ud30c \uace0\uc810(\ud604\uc7ac \uc57d 87\ub2ec\ub7ec) \uc704\ub85c \u2018\ud655\uc2e4\ud55c \ub3cc\ud30c \ud6c4 \uc548\ucc29(break and hold\u00b7\ub6ab\uace0 \ub09c \ub4a4 \uadf8 \uc704\uc5d0\uc11c \uc720\uc9c0\ub418\ub294 \uc6c0\uc9c1\uc784)\u2019 \uc5ec\ubd80\ub2e4. \uc774 \ub3cc\ud30c\uac00 \ud655\uc778\ub418\uba74 \uc0c1\uc2b9 \uad6c\uc870\uac00 \ud655\uc778\ub418\uba70 \uc0c8\ub85c\uc6b4 \ub9e4\uc218\uc138\ub97c \ubd80\ub97c \uac00\ub2a5\uc131\uc774 \uc788\ub2e4. \ub530\ub77c\uc11c \uc774 \uac00\uaca9\ub300\uc5d0 \uc54c\ub9bc\uc744 \uc124\uc815\ud558\ub294 \uac83\uc774 \uacf5\uaca9\uc801 \ub9e4\uc218 \ud0c0\uc774\ubc0d\uc744 \uc7a1\ub294 \ub370 \uc911\uc694\ud558\ub2e4.\n

\n\n

\uc9c0\uae08 \ubc14\ub85c \uac70\ub798\ub97c \uc2dc\uc791\ud558\uc138\uc694 – VT Markets \uc2e4\uacc4\uc88c\ub97c \uac1c\uc124\ud558\ub824\uba74 \uc5ec\uae30<\/a>\ub97c \ud074\ub9ad\ud558\uc138\uc694 <\/strong> <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

OXY, 2022\ub144 \uace0\uc810 \ub300\ube44 54% \uae09\ub77d \ud6c4 34.78\ub2ec\ub7ec \ubc14\ub2e5 \ud655\uc778. \ucda9\uaca9\ud30c \ubc18\ub4f1\uc73c\ub85c 77~87\ub2ec\ub7ec \uc0c1\ub2e8 \uc784\ubc15, 87\ub2ec\ub7ec \ub3cc\ud30c\u00b7\uc548\ucc29 \uc2dc 103~119\ub2ec\ub7ec \ud655\uc7a5. \uc635\uc158\uc740 75~80\ud48b \ub9e4\ub3c4\u00b7\uc7a5\uae30 \ucf5c\ub85c III\ud30c \ub300\ube44.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-43759","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/43759","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=43759"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/43759\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=43759"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=43759"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=43759"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}