{"id":43471,"date":"2026-03-27T06:40:46","date_gmt":"2026-03-27T06:40:46","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr\/uncategorized\/%ec%9b%90%ec%9c%a0-%ec%8b%9c%ec%9e%a5-%ed%98%bc%eb%9e%80-%ec%86%8d-%eb%8b%ac%eb%9f%ac-%ec%97%94-3%ec%a3%bc%ea%b0%84-152-10%e2%86%92159-70-%ea%b8%89%eb%93%b1160%ec%97%94-%eb%aa%a9%ec%a0%84\/"},"modified":"2026-03-27T06:40:46","modified_gmt":"2026-03-27T06:40:46","slug":"%ec%9b%90%ec%9c%a0-%ec%8b%9c%ec%9e%a5-%ed%98%bc%eb%9e%80-%ec%86%8d-%eb%8b%ac%eb%9f%ac-%ec%97%94-3%ec%a3%bc%ea%b0%84-152-10%e2%86%92159-70-%ea%b8%89%eb%93%b1160%ec%97%94-%eb%aa%a9%ec%a0%84","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/live-updates\/%ec%9b%90%ec%9c%a0-%ec%8b%9c%ec%9e%a5-%ed%98%bc%eb%9e%80-%ec%86%8d-%eb%8b%ac%eb%9f%ac-%ec%97%94-3%ec%a3%bc%ea%b0%84-152-10%e2%86%92159-70-%ea%b8%89%eb%93%b1160%ec%97%94-%eb%aa%a9%ec%a0%84\/","title":{"rendered":"\uc6d0\uc720 \uc2dc\uc7a5 \ud63c\ub780 \uc18d \ub2ec\ub7ec\/\uc5d4, 3\uc8fc\uac04 152.10\u2192159.70 \uae09\ub4f1\u2026160\uc5d4 \ubaa9\uc804"},"content":{"rendered":"USD\/JPY\ub294 \ubaa9\uc694\uc77c \uc57d 0.1% \uc0c1\uc2b9\ud574 159.70\uc120\uc73c\ub85c \uc62c\ub77c\uc130\uace0, \uc7a5\uc911 \ud55c\ub54c 159.85\uc120 \ubd80\uadfc\uae4c\uc9c0 \uc62c\ub790\ub2e4. 3\uc6d4 \ucd08 \uc57d 152.10\uc5d0\uc11c \ucd9c\ubc1c\ud574 3\uc8fc\ub3c4 \uc548 \ub3fc \uc57d 770\ud54d(pip\u00b7\uc678\ud658\uc5d0\uc11c \uc4f0\ub294 \ucd5c\uc18c \ubcc0\ub3d9 \ub2e8\uc704) \uae09\ub4f1\ud55c \uc148\uc774\ub2e4.\n\n\ubbf8\uad6d-\uc774\uc2a4\ub77c\uc5d8\uacfc \uc774\ub780 \uac04 \ubb34\ub825 \ucda9\ub3cc, \ud638\ub974\ubb34\uc988 \ud574\ud611\uc758 \uc6b4\ud56d \ucc28\uc9c8\uc774 \uc5d0\ub108\uc9c0 \uac00\uaca9\uc744 \ub04c\uc5b4\uc62c\ub9ac\uace0 \uc788\ub2e4. \ube0c\ub80c\ud2b8\uc720(\ubd81\ud574\uc0b0 \uc6d0\uc720 \uac00\uaca9 \uc9c0\ud45c)\ub294 3\uc6d4 \ud3c9\uade0 \ubc30\ub7f4\ub2f9 \uc57d 97\ub2ec\ub7ec\ub85c, 2\uc6d4 \ub300\ube44 33% \uc0c1\uc2b9\ud588\ub2e4. \ud638\ub974\ubb34\uc988 \ud574\ud611 \ucc28\uc9c8\uc740 \uc804 \uc138\uacc4 \uc6d0\uc720 \uacf5\uae09\uc758 \uc57d 20%\uc5d0 \uc601\ud5a5\uc744 \uc900\ub2e4.\n\n<h3>\uc77c\ubcf8\uc758 \uc5d0\ub108\uc9c0 \ucde8\uc57d\uc131 \ubc0f \uac1c\uc785 \ub9ac\uc2a4\ud06c<\/h3>\n\uc77c\ubcf8\uc740 \uc6d0\uc720 \uc218\uc785\uc758 \uc57d 95%\ub97c \uc911\ub3d9\uc5d0 \uc758\uc874\ud574 \ucde8\uc57d\ud558\ub2e4. \ub85c\uc774\ud130\ub294 \uc77c\ubcf8 \uc7ac\ubb34\uc131\uc774 \uc5d4\ud654 \uc57d\uc138\ub97c \ub2a6\ucd94\uae30 \uc704\ud574 \uc6d0\uc720 \uc120\ubb3c \uc2dc\uc7a5 \uac1c\uc785\uc744 \uac80\ud1a0\ud558\uace0 \uc788\ub2e4\uace0 \uc804\ud588\ub2e4. \uc120\ubb3c(futures\u00b7\ubbf8\ub9ac \uc815\ud55c \uac00\uaca9\uc73c\ub85c \ub098\uc911\uc5d0 \uc0ac\uace0\ud30c\ub294 \uacc4\uc57d) \uc2dc\uc7a5 \uac1c\uc785\uc740 \uc6d0\uc720 \uac00\uaca9 \uae09\ub4f1\uc744 \uc644\ud654\ud574 \uc218\uc785 \ubb3c\uac00\ub97c \ub0ae\ucd94\uace0, \uacb0\uacfc\uc801\uc73c\ub85c \uc5d4\ud654 \uc57d\uc138 \uc555\ub825\uc744 \uc904\uc774\ub824\ub294 \ubaa9\uc801\uc774\ub2e4.\n\n\uc77c\ubcf8\uc740\ud589(BOJ)\uc740 3\uc6d4 19\uc77c \uae08\ub9ac\ub97c 0.75%\ub85c \uc720\uc9c0\ud588\ub2e4. \ube14\ub8f8\ubc84\uadf8 \uc124\ubb38\uc5d0 \ub530\ub974\uba74 37%\uc758 \uc774\ucf54\ub178\ubbf8\uc2a4\ud2b8\uac00 4\uc6d4 \uae08\ub9ac \uc778\uc0c1\uc744 \uc608\uc0c1\ud588\ub294\ub370, \uc774\ub294 \ub450 \ub2ec \uc804 17%\uc5d0\uc11c \ub192\uc544\uc9c4 \uc218\uce58\ub2e4. \uc77c\ubcf8 2\ub144\ubb3c \uad6d\ucc44\uae08\ub9ac\ub294 1996\ub144 \uc774\ud6c4 \ucd5c\uace0\uce58\ub85c \uc62c\ub790\ub2e4(\uad6d\ucc44\uae08\ub9ac \uc0c1\uc2b9\uc740 \ucc44\uad8c \uac00\uaca9 \ud558\ub77d\uacfc \uae08\ub9ac \uc0c1\uc2b9 \uae30\ub300\ub97c \ubc18\uc601).\n\n\ubbf8 \uc5f0\ubc29\uc900\ube44\uc81c\ub3c4(Fed)\ub294 3\uc6d4 18\uc77c \uae30\uc900\uae08\ub9ac\ub97c 3.50~3.75%\ub85c \uc720\uc9c0\ud588\uace0, \uc810\ub3c4\ud45c(dot plot\u00b7\uc5f0\uc900 \uc704\uc6d0\ub4e4\uc774 \uc608\uc0c1\ud558\ub294 \ud5a5\ud6c4 \uae08\ub9ac \uc218\uc900\uc744 \uc810\uc73c\ub85c \ud45c\uc2dc\ud55c \ud45c)\ub294 \uc62c\ud574 1\ud68c \uc778\ud558\ub97c \uc2dc\uc0ac\ud588\ub2e4. \uc5f0\uc900\uc740 2026\ub144 \uadfc\uc6d0 PCE(\uac1c\uc778\uc18c\ube44\uc9c0\ucd9c \ubb3c\uac00\uc9c0\uc218\uc5d0\uc11c \ubcc0\ub3d9\uc131\uc774 \ud070 \uc2dd\ud488\u00b7\uc5d0\ub108\uc9c0\ub97c \ube80 \ubb3c\uac00 \uc9c0\ud45c) \uc804\ub9dd\uce58\ub97c 2.7%\ub85c \uc0c1\ud5a5\ud588\ub2e4. \uae08\uc694\uc77c\uc5d0\ub294 \ubbf8\uc2dc\uac04\ub300 \uc2ec\ub9ac\uc9c0\uc218(\uac00\uacc4\uc758 \uacbd\uae30 \uccb4\uac10 \uc9c0\ud45c)\uc640 1\ub144 \uae30\ub300\uc778\ud50c\ub808\uc774\uc158(\ud5a5\ud6c4 1\ub144 \ubb3c\uac00 \uc0c1\uc2b9 \uc608\uc0c1\uce58) \ubc1c\ud45c\uac00 \uc608\uc815\ub3fc \uc788\ub2e4.\n\n<h3>\uc5d4\ud654\uc640 \ubcc0\ub3d9\uc131\uc5d0 \ub300\ud55c \uc804\ub7b5\uc801 \uc2dc\uc0ac\uc810<\/h3>\n\uc9c0\ub09c\ud574 \uc77c\ubcf8 \ub2f9\uad6d\uc774 \uc5d4\ud654 \ubc29\uc5b4\uc5d0 \ub098\uc120 \uc774\ud6c4 \ud658\uacbd\uc774 \ubc14\ub00c\uc5c8\ub2e4. USD\/JPY\ub294 \ud604\uc7ac 153.50\uc120\uc5d0\uc11c \uac70\ub798\ub418\uba70 \uace0\uc810 \ub300\ube44 \ud06c\uac8c \ub0b4\ub824\uc640 \uc788\ub2e4. \uc911\ub3d9 \uae34\uc7a5\uc774 \uc644\ud654\ub418\uace0 \uc5d0\ub108\uc9c0 \uc704\uae30\uac00 \uc9c4\uc815\ub41c \uc601\ud5a5\uc774\ub2e4. \ubbf8\uad6d \uc5d0\ub108\uc9c0\uc815\ubcf4\uccad(EIA) \uc790\ub8cc\uc5d0 \ub530\ub974\uba74 \ube0c\ub80c\ud2b8\uc720\ub294 \uc774\ub2ec \ud3c9\uade0 \ubc30\ub7f4\ub2f9 \uc57d 86\ub2ec\ub7ec\ub85c \uc548\uc815\ub3fc \uc5d4\ud654\uc5d0 \uac00\ud574\uc9c0\ub358 \ud575\uc2ec \uc555\ub825\uc774 \uc904\uc5c8\ub2e4.\n\n\uc815\ucc45 \ud658\uacbd\ub3c4 \ub2ec\ub77c\uc838 \ub2ec\ub7ec \uac15\uc138\ub97c \ud0a4\uc6e0\ub358 \uae08\ub9ac \uaca9\ucc28\uac00 \ucd95\uc18c\ub410\ub2e4. \uc77c\ubcf8\uc740\ud589\uc740 \ud1b5\ud654\uc815\uc0c1\ud654(\ucd08\uc800\uae08\ub9ac\u00b7\ub300\uaddc\ubaa8 \uc644\ud654\uc5d0\uc11c \ubc97\uc5b4\ub098 \uae08\ub9ac\ub97c \uc62c\ub9ac\uace0 \uc644\ud654 \ud3ed\uc744 \uc904\uc774\ub294 \uacfc\uc815)\ub97c \uc774\uc5b4\uac00 \uc815\ucc45\uae08\ub9ac\uac00 1.00% \uc218\uc900\uc774\ub2e4. \ubc18\uba74 \uc5f0\uc900\uc740 \uc9c0\ub09c\ud574 \uc774\ud6c4 0.25%\ud3ec\uc778\ud2b8\uc529 \ub450 \ucc28\ub840 \uae08\ub9ac\ub97c \ub0b4\ub824 \uc5f0\ubc29\uae30\uae08\uae08\ub9ac \ubaa9\ud45c \ubc94\uc704\ub97c 3.00~3.25%\ub85c \ub0ae\ucdc4\ub2e4.\n\n\uc774\ub7f0 \ud658\uacbd\uc5d0\uc11c\ub294 \ud5a5\ud6c4 \uc218\uc8fc \ub3d9\uc548 \ubcc0\ub3d9\uc131 \ub9e4\ub3c4 \uc804\ub7b5\uc774 \uc720\ub9ac\ud558\ub2e4\ub294 \ud310\ub2e8\uc774 \ub098\uc628\ub2e4. \ubcc0\ub3d9\uc131(volatility\u00b7\uac00\uaca9\uc774 \ud06c\uac8c \ucd9c\ub801\uc774\ub294 \uc815\ub3c4)\uc744 \ud310\ub2e4\ub294 \uac83\uc740 \uc635\uc158(option\u00b7\ubbf8\ub9ac \uc815\ud55c \uac00\uaca9\uc5d0 \uc0b4 \uc218 \uc788\ub294 \uad8c\ub9ac\/\ud314 \uc218 \uc788\ub294 \uad8c\ub9ac\ub97c \uac70\ub798) \ud504\ub9ac\ubbf8\uc5c4\uc744 \ubc1b\ub294 \ub300\uc2e0 \ud070 \ubcc0\ub3d9\uc774 \ub098\uc624\uc9c0 \uc54a\ub294 \ucabd\uc5d0 \ubca0\ud305\ud558\ub294 \uc804\ub7b5\uc774\ub2e4. \uac1c\uc785 \uac00\ub2a5\uc131\uc774 \ub0ae\uace0 \uc911\uc559\uc740\ud589 \uacbd\ub85c\uac00 \ube44\uc2b7\ud574\uc9c0\uba74\uc11c 2025\ub144\uc758 \uae09\ub4f1\ub77d \uac00\ub2a5\uc131\uc740 \uc904\uc5c8\ub2e4. \uc774\uc5d0 \ub530\ub77c USD\/JPY \uc2a4\ud2b8\ub7ad\uae00(strangle\u00b7\ud589\uc0ac\uac00\uac00 \ub2e4\ub978 \ucf5c\uc635\uc158\uacfc \ud48b\uc635\uc158\uc744 \ub3d9\uc2dc\uc5d0 \ud30c\ub294 \ubc29\uc2dd) \ub9e4\ub3c4\uac00 \uac70\ub860\ub418\uba70, \ud589\uc0ac\uac00 150.00\uacfc 156.00 \uc218\uc900\uc774 \uc81c\uc2dc\ub41c\ub2e4. 1\uac1c\uc6d4 \ub0b4\uc7ac\ubcc0\ub3d9\uc131(implied volatility\u00b7\uc635\uc158 \uac00\uaca9\uc5d0 \ubc18\uc601\ub41c \uc2dc\uc7a5\uc758 \uc608\uc0c1 \ubcc0\ub3d9\uc131)\uc740 \uc9c0\ub09c\ud574 14%\ub97c \ub118\ub358 \uc218\uc900\uc5d0\uc11c \ud604\uc7ac 9% \uc544\ub798\ub85c \ub0b4\ub824\uc654\ub2e4.\n\n\ubc29\ud5a5\uc131(\ud658\uc728\uc774 \ud55c\ucabd\uc73c\ub85c \uc6c0\uc9c1\uc77c \uac83\uc774\ub77c\ub294 \uc804\ub9dd)\uc744 \uac16\ub294 \ud22c\uc790\uc790\ub77c\uba74, \ub2ec\ub7ec \uce90\ub9ac \ud2b8\ub808\uc774\ub4dc(carry trade\u00b7\uae08\ub9ac\uac00 \ub192\uc740 \ud1b5\ud654\uc5d0 \ud22c\uc790\ud558\uace0 \ub0ae\uc740 \ud1b5\ud654\ub97c \ube4c\ub824 \ucc28\uc775\uc744 \ub178\ub9ac\ub294 \uac70\ub798) \uccad\uc0b0\uc774 \uc774\uc5b4\uc9c0\ub294 \ub9cc\ud07c \uc5d4\ud654 \uac15\uc138\uc5d0 \ub300\ube44\ud558\ub294 \uc804\ub7b5\uc774 \ud569\ub9ac\uc801\uc774\ub2e4. 4\uc6d4 \ub9d0 \ub610\ub294 5\uc6d4 \ub9cc\uae30(expiration\u00b7\uc635\uc158\uc774 \ud6a8\ub825\uc744 \uac16\ub294 \uae30\uac04\uc758 \ub05d)\ub85c USD\/JPY 150.00 \ud589\uc0ac\uac00 \ud48b\uc635\uc158(put\u00b7\uc815\ud574\uc9c4 \uac00\uaca9\uc5d0 \ud314 \uc218 \uc788\ub294 \uad8c\ub9ac)\uc744 \ub9e4\uc218\ud558\uba74 \uc190\uc2e4\uc774 \uc635\uc158 \ud504\ub9ac\ubbf8\uc5c4\uc73c\ub85c \uc81c\ud55c\ub418\ub294 \ubc29\uc2dd\uc73c\ub85c \ucd94\uc138\ub97c \ud65c\uc6a9\ud560 \uc218 \uc788\ub2e4. \uacfc\uac70 160.00\uae4c\uc9c0 \ubc00\uc5b4 \uc62c\ub838\ub358 \uc694\uc778\uc774 \uc57d\ud574\uc84c\ub2e4\ub294 \uc758\ubbf8\ub2e4.\n\n\ub354 \uc815\uad50\ud55c \ubc29\ubc95\uc73c\ub85c\ub294 \uc57d\uc138 \ub9ac\uc2a4\ud06c \ub9ac\ubc84\uc124(bearish risk reversal\u00b7\ud48b\uc635\uc158\uc744 \uc0ac\uace0, \ub354 \ub192\uc740 \ud589\uc0ac\uac00\uc758 \ucf5c\uc635\uc158\uc744 \ud314\uc544 \ube44\uc6a9\uc744 \uc904\uc774\ub294 \uad6c\uc870)\uc774 \uc788\ub2e4. \ub9ac\uc2a4\ud06c \ub9ac\ubc84\uc124(risk reversal\u00b7\ud48b \ub9e4\uc218\uc640 \ucf5c \ub9e4\ub3c4\ub97c \uc870\ud569\ud574 \uc635\uc158 \ube44\uc6a9\uc744 \ub0ae\ucd94\uac70\ub098 0\uc5d0 \uac00\uae5d\uac8c \ub9cc\ub4dc\ub294 \uc804\ub7b5)\uc740 \ud658\uc728\uc774 \uc11c\uc11c\ud788 \ub0b4\ub824\uac08 \uac00\ub2a5\uc131\uc5d0 \ubca0\ud305\ud558\uba74\uc11c \ube44\uc6a9 \ubd80\ub2f4\uc744 \uc904\uc778\ub2e4. \uc774\ub294 \uc2dc\uc7a5 \uc2ec\ub9ac\uac00 2025\ub144 \uace0\uc810 \uc7ac\uc2dc\ub3c4\ubcf4\ub2e4 \ud558\ub77d \uc704\ud5d8\uc744 \ub354 \ud06c\uac8c \ubcf4\ub294 \ucabd\uc73c\ub85c \ubc14\ub010 \uc810\uc744 \ud65c\uc6a9\ud558\ub294 \uad6c\uc870\ub2e4.\n<p>\n\n<p><strong>\uc9c0\uae08 \ubc14\ub85c \uac70\ub798\ub97c \uc2dc\uc791\ud558\uc138\uc694 &#8211; VT Markets \uc2e4\uacc4\uc88c\ub97c \uac1c\uc124\ud558\ub824\uba74 <a href=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr\/trade-now\/\">\uc5ec\uae30<\/a>\ub97c \ud074\ub9ad\ud558\uc138\uc694 <\/strong> <\/p>\n<!-- \/wp:post-content -->","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>\u201c\uc5d4\uc800 160\uc5d4 \uc7ac\ub3cc\ud30c \ub05d?\u201d \uc911\ub3d9\ubc1c \uc720\uac00 \ucda9\uaca9\uc5d0\ub3c4 BOJ \uc815\uc0c1\ud654\u00b7Fed \uc778\ud558\ub85c \uaca9\ucc28 \ucd95\uc18c, \uac1c\uc785 \ub9ac\uc2a4\ud06c \ub0ae\uc544 \ubcc0\ub3d9\uc131 \ub9e4\ub3c4 \uc720\ub9ac. \ubc29\ud5a5\uc131\uc740 \uc5d4\ud654 \uac15\uc138 \ubca0\ud305 \ud655\ub300.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-43471","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/43471","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=43471"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/43471\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=43471"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=43471"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=43471"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}