{"id":42070,"date":"2026-03-20T22:41:50","date_gmt":"2026-03-20T22:41:50","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr\/uncategorized\/%eb%85%b8%eb%a5%b4%eb%8d%b0%ec%95%84%ec%9d%98-%ec%82%ac%eb%9d%bc-%eb%af%b8%ed%8a%b8%ea%b0%80%eb%a5%b4%eb%93%9c-%ec%97%b0%ec%a4%80-%ea%b8%88%eb%a6%ac-%eb%8f%99%ea%b2%b0%ed%96%a5\/"},"modified":"2026-03-20T22:41:50","modified_gmt":"2026-03-20T22:41:50","slug":"%eb%85%b8%eb%a5%b4%eb%8d%b0%ec%95%84%ec%9d%98-%ec%82%ac%eb%9d%bc-%eb%af%b8%ed%8a%b8%ea%b0%80%eb%a5%b4%eb%93%9c-%ec%97%b0%ec%a4%80-%ea%b8%88%eb%a6%ac-%eb%8f%99%ea%b2%b0%ed%96%a5","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/live-updates\/%eb%85%b8%eb%a5%b4%eb%8d%b0%ec%95%84%ec%9d%98-%ec%82%ac%eb%9d%bc-%eb%af%b8%ed%8a%b8%ea%b0%80%eb%a5%b4%eb%93%9c-%ec%97%b0%ec%a4%80-%ea%b8%88%eb%a6%ac-%eb%8f%99%ea%b2%b0%ed%96%a5\/","title":{"rendered":"\ub178\ub974\ub370\uc544\uc758 \uc0ac\ub77c \ubbf8\ud2b8\uac00\ub974\ub4dc \u201c\uc5f0\uc900, \uae08\ub9ac \ub3d9\uacb0\u2026\ud5a5\ud6c4 25bp\uc529 \uc810\uc9c4\uc801 \uc778\ud558 \uc2dc\uc0ac\u201d"},"content":{"rendered":"\ubbf8 \uc5f0\ubc29\uc900\ube44\uc81c\ub3c4(Fed\u00b7\uc5f0\uc900)\ub294 \uc815\ucc45\uae08\ub9ac\ub97c 3.5~3.75%\ub85c \ub3d9\uacb0\ud588\ub2e4. \uc774\ubc88 \uacb0\uc815\uc740 \uc2dc\uc7a5 \uc608\uc0c1\uacfc \ubd80\ud569\ud588\ub2e4.\n\n\uc5f0\uc900\uc758 \ucd5c\uc2e0 \uc804\ub9dd(\uc810\ub3c4\ud45c \ub4f1)\uc740 \ud5a5\ud6c4 \uae08\ub9ac \uc778\ud558\uac00 \ub9e4\uc6b0 \ub290\ub9ac\uac8c \uc9c4\ud589\ub420 \uac00\ub2a5\uc131\uc744 \uc2dc\uc0ac\ud588\ub2e4. \uc911\uc559\uac12 \uae30\uc900 2026\ub144 0.25%\ud3ec\uc778\ud2b8(bp\u00b7\ubca0\uc774\uc2dc\uc2a4\ud3ec\uc778\ud2b8, 1bp=0.01%\ud3ec\uc778\ud2b8) 1\ud68c \uc778\ud558, 2027\ub144 0.25%\ud3ec\uc778\ud2b8 1\ud68c \uc778\ud558\ub85c, 12\uc6d4 \uc804\ub9dd\uacfc \ub3d9\uc77c\ud558\ub2e4.\n\n<h3>\uc778\ud50c\ub808\uc774\uc158 \uc9c4\uc804\uacfc \uc815\ucc45 \uc870\uac74<\/h3>\n\uc5f0\uc900\uc740 \uae08\ub9ac \uc778\ud558\uac00 \ubb3c\uac00 \ubaa9\ud45c(\uc778\ud50c\ub808\uc774\uc158 \ubaa9\ud45c) \ub2ec\uc131\uc744 \ud5a5\ud55c \u2018\uba85\ud655\ud55c \uc9c4\uc804\u2019\uc5d0 \ub2ec\ub824 \uc788\ub2e4\uace0 \ubc1d\ud614\ub2e4. \ub610\ud55c \uc911\ub3d9 \uc9c0\uc5ed\uc758 \uc9c0\uc815\ud559\uc801 \uae34\uc7a5\uc744 \uc778\ud50c\ub808\uc774\uc158\uacfc \uacbd\uc81c \ud65c\ub3d9\uc758 \ubd88\ud655\uc2e4\uc131 \uc694\uc778\uc73c\ub85c \uc9c0\ubaa9\ud588\ub2e4.\n\n\uc544\uc6b8\ub7ec \ud5a5\ud6c4 2\ub144\uac04 \uae08\ub9ac\ub97c \ub3d9\uacb0\ud558\ub294 \uae30\ubcf8 \uc2dc\ub098\ub9ac\uc624\ub3c4 \uc81c\uc2dc\ud588\uc73c\uba70, \ub2e8\uae30\uac04 \ub0b4 \uae08\ub9ac \uc778\ud558\ub294 \uc608\uc0c1\ud558\uc9c0 \uc54a\ub294\ub2e4\uace0 \ub367\ubd99\uc600\ub2e4.\n\n\uc774\ubc88 \uacb0\uc815\uc740 \u2018\uace0\uae08\ub9ac \uc7a5\uae30\ud654(higher-for-longer\u00b7\uae08\ub9ac\ub97c \ub192\uc740 \uc218\uc900\uc5d0\uc11c \uc624\ub798 \uc720\uc9c0)\u2019 \uc2e0\ud638\ub85c \ud574\uc11d\ub41c\ub2e4. \uc62c\ud574 \uae08\ub9ac \uc778\ud558\uac00 \ud55c \ucc28\ub840\uc758 \uc18c\ud3ed \uc778\ud558\uc5d0 \uadf8\uce5c\ub2e4\ub294 \uc804\ub9dd\uc740, \uc2dc\uc7a5 \ucc38\uc5ec\uc790\ub4e4\uc774 \ub2e8\uae30\uac04 \ub0b4 \uc644\ud654(\uae08\ub9ac \uc778\ud558) \uac00\ub2a5\uc131\uc5d0 \ubca0\ud305\ud558\uae30 \uc5b4\ub835\ub2e4\ub294 \uc758\ubbf8\ub2e4. \uc774 \uac19\uc740 \uc815\ucc45 \uae30\uc870\ub294 \ub2f9\ubd84\uac04 \ub2e8\uae30 \uae08\ub9ac\ub97c \uc77c\uc815 \ubc94\uc704\uc5d0 \ubb36\uc5b4\ub450\ub294 \uc694\uc778\uc73c\ub85c \uc791\uc6a9\ud560 \uc218 \uc788\ub2e4.\n\n<h3>\ub9e4\ub9e4 \uc2dc\uc0ac\uc810\uacfc \uc704\ud5d8 \ud5e4\uc9c0<\/h3>\n\uc5f0\uc900\uc758 \uc2e0\uc911\ud55c \uc811\uadfc\uc740 \ucd5c\uadfc \uc9c0\ud45c\ub85c \ub4b7\ubc1b\uce68\ub418\uace0 \uc788\ub2e4. 2\uc6d4 \uc18c\ube44\uc790\ubb3c\uac00\uc9c0\uc218(CPI\u00b7\uac00\uacc4\uac00 \uad6c\ub9e4\ud558\ub294 \uc0c1\ud488\u00b7\uc11c\ube44\uc2a4 \uac00\uaca9 \ubcc0\ud654\ub97c \uce21\uc815)\uc5d0\uc11c \uadfc\uc6d0\ubb3c\uac00(core inflation\u00b7\ubcc0\ub3d9\uc131\uc774 \ud070 \uc5d0\ub108\uc9c0\u00b7\uc2dd\ud488\uc744 \uc81c\uc678\ud55c \ubb3c\uac00)\uac00 3.3%\ub85c \uc720\uc9c0\ub3fc 2% \ubaa9\ud45c\ub97c \uc5ec\uc804\ud788 \ud06c\uac8c \uc6c3\ub3cc\uc558\ub2e4. \uc5ec\uae30\uc5d0 \ub178\ub3d9\uc2dc\uc7a5\uc774 \uacac\uc870\ud574 \uc9c0\ub09c\ub2ec \uc77c\uc790\ub9ac\uac00 21\ub9cc \uac1c \ub298\uc5b4, \uc5f0\uc900\uc774 \uc11c\ub458\ub7ec \uae08\ub9ac\ub97c \ub0b4\ub9b4 \uc720\uc778\uc774 \ud06c\uc9c0 \uc54a\ub2e4\ub294 \ubd84\uc11d\uc774 \ub098\uc628\ub2e4.\n\n\ud5a5\ud6c4 \uc218\uc8fc\uac04\uc740 \u2018\ubcc0\ub3d9\uc131 \ub9e4\ub3c4(selling volatility\u00b7\uc635\uc158 \ud504\ub9ac\ubbf8\uc5c4\uc744 \ubc1b\uace0 \ubcc0\ub3d9\uc131 \ud558\ub77d\uc5d0 \ubca0\ud305\ud558\ub294 \uc804\ub7b5)\u2019\uac00 \uc720\ub9ac\ud560 \uc218 \uc788\ub2e4. \uc5f0\uc900\uc758 \uacbd\ub85c\uac00 \ube44\uad50\uc801 \uba85\ud655\ud574\uc9c0\uba74, \uc8fc\uc694 \uc9c0\uc218\uc758 \ub0b4\uc7ac\ubcc0\ub3d9\uc131(implied volatility\u00b7\uc635\uc158 \uac00\uaca9\uc5d0 \ubc18\uc601\ub41c \uc608\uc0c1 \ubcc0\ub3d9\uc131)\uc774 \ub0ae\uc544\uc9c8 \uac00\ub2a5\uc131\uc774 \uc788\uc5b4 VIX \ucf5c\uc635\uc158 \ub9e4\ub3c4\ub098 SPX(\uc2a4\ud0e0\ub354\ub4dc\uc564\ub4dc\ud478\uc5b4\uc2a4500 \uc9c0\uc218) \uc544\uc774\uc5b8 \ucf58\ub3c4\ub974(iron condor\u00b7\uc0c1\u00b7\ud558\ub2e8\uc5d0 \ucf5c\/\ud48b \uc2a4\ud504\ub808\ub4dc\ub97c \ud568\uaed8 \uad6c\uc131\ud574 \uc77c\uc815 \ubc94\uc704 \ud6a1\ubcf4\uc5d0 \ubca0\ud305) \uac19\uc740 \uc804\ub7b5\uc774 \ub300\uc548\uc774 \ub420 \uc218 \uc788\ub2e4. 2025\ub144\uc5d0\ub294 \uc5f0\uc900 \u2018\ud53c\ubc97(pivot\u00b7\uae34\ucd95\uc5d0\uc11c \uc644\ud654\ub85c\uc758 \uc815\ucc45 \uc804\ud658) \uae30\ub300\u2019\uac00 \ubd88\ud655\uc2e4\uc131\uc744 \ud0a4\uc6b0\uba70 \ubcc0\ub3d9\uc131\uc774 \uae09\ub4f1\ud588\uc9c0\ub9cc, \ud604\uc7ac\ub294 \uadf8\ub7f0 \ud658\uacbd\uc774 \uc7ac\ud604\ub420 \uac00\ub2a5\uc131\uc774 \ub0ae\ub2e4\ub294 \ud3c9\uac00\ub2e4.\n\n\uae08\ub9ac \uc120\ubb3c(interest rate futures\u00b7\ud5a5\ud6c4 \uae30\uc900\uae08\ub9ac \uc218\uc900\uc744 \ubc18\uc601\ud558\ub294 \uc120\ubb3c)\uc5d0\uc11c\ub3c4 \uae30\ud68c\uac00 \uac70\ub860\ub41c\ub2e4. \uc2dc\uc7a5\uc774 \ub354 \uacf5\uaca9\uc801\uc778 \uc778\ud558\ub97c \uac00\uaca9\uc5d0 \ubc18\uc601\ud574\uc654\ub2e4\uba74, \uadf8 \uae30\ub300\uac00 \ub418\ub3cc\ub824\uc9c0\uba74\uc11c 2026\ub144 \ud558\ubc18\uae30 SOFR \uc120\ubb3c(SOFR futures\u00b7\ubbf8\uad6d \ub2f4\ubcf4\ubd80 \ucd08\ub2e8\uae30 \uae08\ub9ac\uc778 SOFR\uc744 \uae30\ucd08\ub85c \ud558\ub294 \uae08\ub9ac \uc120\ubb3c) \ub9e4\ub3c4 \uc804\ub7b5\uc774 \uc720\ud6a8\ud560 \uc218 \uc788\ub2e4. \uc774\ub294 2\ub144\ubb3c \ubbf8 \uad6d\ucc44\uae08\ub9ac(2-year Treasury yield\u00b7\ud5a5\ud6c4 2\ub144\uc758 \uae08\ub9ac \uc804\ub9dd\uc744 \ubbfc\uac10\ud558\uac8c \ubc18\uc601)\uac00 \ubc1c\ud45c \uc774\ud6c4 3.6% \uc774\uc0c1\uc5d0\uc11c \uacac\uc870\ud558\uac8c \uc720\uc9c0\ub418\ub294 \ud750\ub984\uacfc\ub3c4 \ub9de\ubb3c\ub9b0\ub2e4.\n\n\ub2e4\ub9cc \uc5f0\uc900\uc774 \uc5b8\uae09\ud55c \uc9c0\uc815\ud559\uc801 \ub9ac\uc2a4\ud06c\ub294 \ubcc0\uc218\ub2e4. \uc911\ub3d9 \uc0c1\ud669\uc774 \uae09\uaca9\ud55c \uc720\uac00 \ucda9\uaca9(oil price shock\u00b7\uc720\uac00 \uae09\ub4f1\uc73c\ub85c \ubb3c\uac00\uc640 \uacbd\uae30 \uc804\ub9dd\uc774 \ud754\ub4e4\ub9ac\ub294 \uc0c1\ud669)\uc744 \uc720\ubc1c\ud558\uba74 \uc778\ud50c\ub808\uc774\uc158 \uacbd\ub85c\uac00 \ubcf5\uc7a1\ud574\uc9c8 \uc218 \uc788\ub2e4. \ubc29\uc5b4\uc801 \ud5e4\uc9c0\ub85c\ub294 WTI \uc6d0\uc720(WTI crude oil\u00b7\ubbf8\uad6d\uc0b0 \ub300\ud45c \uc720\uc885)\ub098 VIX\uc5d0 \ub300\ud574 \uc678\uac00\uaca9 \ucf5c\uc635\uc158(out-of-the-money call\u00b7\ud604\uc7ac \uac00\uaca9\ubcf4\ub2e4 \ub192\uc740 \ud589\uc0ac\uac00\uc758 \ucf5c\uc635\uc158)\ucc98\ub7fc \uac00\uaca9\uc774 \uc800\ub834\ud55c \uc635\uc158\uc744 \uc77c\ubd80 \ubcf4\uc720\ud574 \uae09\uaca9\ud55c \uc2dc\uc7a5 \ucda9\uaca9\uc5d0 \ub300\ube44\ud558\ub294 \ubc29\uc548\uc774 \uac70\ub860\ub41c\ub2e4.\n<p>\n\n<p><strong>\uc9c0\uae08 \ubc14\ub85c \uac70\ub798\ub97c \uc2dc\uc791\ud558\uc138\uc694 &#8211; VT Markets \uc2e4\uacc4\uc88c\ub97c \uac1c\uc124\ud558\ub824\uba74 <a href=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr\/trade-now\/\">\uc5ec\uae30<\/a>\ub97c \ud074\ub9ad\ud558\uc138\uc694 <\/strong> <\/p>\n<!-- \/wp:post-content -->","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>\u201c\uace0\uae08\ub9ac \uc7a5\uae30\ud654\u201d \uc7ac\ud655\uc778. \uc5f0\uc900, \uae08\ub9ac 3.5~3.75% \ub3d9\uacb0\u2026\uc778\ud558\ub294 2026\u00b72027\ub144 \uac01 0.25%p 1\ud68c \uc804\ub9dd. \ubcc0\ub3d9\uc131 \ub9e4\ub3c4 \uc720\ub9dd\ud558\ub098 \uc911\ub3d9 \ub9ac\uc2a4\ud06c \ud5e4\uc9c0 \ud544\uc694.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-42070","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/42070","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=42070"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/42070\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=42070"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=42070"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=42070"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}