{"id":41983,"date":"2026-03-20T12:42:40","date_gmt":"2026-03-20T12:42:40","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr\/uncategorized\/2026%eb%85%84-%ea%b3%a0%ec%a0%90-%ec%9d%b4%ed%9b%84-sp-500%ec%a7%80%ec%88%98spx%eb%8a%94-%ec%b2%b4%ea%b3%84%ec%a0%81%ec%9c%bc%eb%a1%9c-%ed%95%98%eb%9d%bd%ed%95%98%eb%a9%b0-%ec%95%9e%ec%84%9c\/"},"modified":"2026-03-20T12:42:40","modified_gmt":"2026-03-20T12:42:40","slug":"2026%eb%85%84-%ea%b3%a0%ec%a0%90-%ec%9d%b4%ed%9b%84-sp-500%ec%a7%80%ec%88%98spx%eb%8a%94-%ec%b2%b4%ea%b3%84%ec%a0%81%ec%9c%bc%eb%a1%9c-%ed%95%98%eb%9d%bd%ed%95%98%eb%a9%b0-%ec%95%9e%ec%84%9c","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/live-updates\/2026%eb%85%84-%ea%b3%a0%ec%a0%90-%ec%9d%b4%ed%9b%84-sp-500%ec%a7%80%ec%88%98spx%eb%8a%94-%ec%b2%b4%ea%b3%84%ec%a0%81%ec%9c%bc%eb%a1%9c-%ed%95%98%eb%9d%bd%ed%95%98%eb%a9%b0-%ec%95%9e%ec%84%9c\/","title":{"rendered":"2026\ub144 \uace0\uc810 \uc774\ud6c4 S&#038;P 500\uc9c0\uc218(SPX)\ub294 \uccb4\uacc4\uc801\uc73c\ub85c \ud558\ub77d\ud558\uba70, \uc55e\uc11c \uc81c\uc2dc\ub41c \ubaa9\ud45c\uce58 6,521\uc120\uc5d0 \uac70\uc758 \ub3c4\ub2ec\ud588\ub2e4"},"content":{"rendered":"SPX\ub294 11\uc6d4 21\uc77c 6,521\uc5d0\uc11c \uc2dc\uc791\ud574 1\uc6d4 28\uc77c 7,002\uc5d0\uc11c \ub05d\ub09c \u2018\uc5d8\ub9ac\uc5c7 \ud30c\ub3d9(Elliott Wave, \uac00\uaca9\uc774 \ubc18\ubcf5\uc801\uc778 \ud30c\ub3d9 \ud615\ud0dc\ub85c \uc6c0\uc9c1\uc778\ub2e4\ub294 \uae30\uc220\uc801 \ubd84\uc11d)\u2019\uc758 **\uc5d4\ub529 \ub2e4\uc774\uc560\uace0\ub110(ending diagonal, \uc0c1\uc2b9 \ub9d0\uae30\uc5d0 \ub098\ud0c0\ub098\ub294 \uc410\uae30\ud615 \ud30c\ub3d9)** \uc774\ud6c4 \uace0\uc810\uc744 \ucc0d\uc5c8\uc744 \uac00\ub2a5\uc131\uc774 \uc788\ub2e4. \ud574\ub2f9 \uc5d4\ub529 \ub2e4\uc774\uc560\uace0\ub110\uc740 **\ud2b8\ub801\ucf00\uc774\uc158(truncation, \ub9c8\uc9c0\ub9c9 \ud30c\ub3d9\uc774 \ubaa9\ud45c\uce58\uc5d0 \ubabb \ubbf8\uce58\uace0 \uc870\uae30 \uc885\ub8cc\ub418\ub294 \ud604\uc0c1)** \uc73c\ub85c \ub9c8\ubb34\ub9ac\ub41c \uac83\uc73c\ub85c \ud574\uc11d\ub41c\ub2e4. \uc55e\uc11c 2\uc6d4 18\uc77c\uacbd 6,521\uae4c\uc9c0\uc758 \ud558\ub77d\uc774 \uc81c\uc2dc\ub410\uace0, \ud604\uc7ac \uac00\uaca9\uc740 \uadf8 \uc218\uc900\uc5d0 \uac70\uc758 \ub3c4\ub2ec\ud588\ub2e4.\n\n1\uc6d4 28\uc77c \uc774\ud6c4 \ud558\ub77d\uc740 \uacb9\uce58\uace0(\uc11c\ub85c \uce68\ubc94\ud558\ub294 \uc6c0\uc9c1\uc784) \uace0\ub974\uc9c0 \uc54a\uc544, \ub354 \ud070 \ud558\ub77d \ucd94\uc138\uc758 \ucd9c\ubc1c\uc810\uc774 \ub420 \uc218 \uc788\ub294 **\ub9ac\ub529 \ub2e4\uc774\uc560\uace0\ub110(leading diagonal, \ud558\ub77d\/\uc0c1\uc2b9 \ucd08\uae30\uc5d0 \ub098\ud0c0\ub098\ub294 \uc410\uae30\ud615 \ud30c\ub3d9)** \uac00\ub2a5\uc131\uacfc \ub9de\ub294\ub2e4. \uc774 \uc6c0\uc9c1\uc784\uc740 **\ud558\ub77d \uc410\uae30\ud615(\uac10\uc18c \uc6e8\uc9c0, declining wedge: \uace0\uc810\uacfc \uc800\uc810\uc774 \ubaa8\ub450 \ub0ae\uc544\uc9c0\uba70 \ubcc0\ub3d9 \ud3ed\uc774 \uc904\uc5b4\ub4dc\ub294 \ud328\ud134)** \uc73c\ub85c \uc124\uba85\ub418\uba70, 2026\ub144 3\uc6d4\uc758 (i) \ub610\ub294 (a) \ud30c\ub3d9(\ud558\ub77d\uc758 \uccab \uad6c\uac04)\uc774 \ub9c8\ubb34\ub9ac \ub2e8\uacc4\uc5d0 \ub4e4\uc5b4\uc130\uc744 \uc218 \uc788\ub2e4.\n\n<h3>Near Term Wave Structure<\/h3>\n\ud574\uc11d\uc774 \ub9de\ub2e4\uba74, \ud5a5\ud6c4 \uc218\uc77c \ub0b4 (ii) \ud30c\ub3d9(\uccab \ud558\ub77d \ub4a4 \ub098\ud0c0\ub098\ub294 \ubc18\ub4f1 \uad6c\uac04)\uc5d0\uc11c \uc81c\ud55c\uc801 \ubc18\ub4f1\uc774 \ub098\uc62c \uc218 \uc788\ub2e4. SPX\ub294 \ub610\ud55c 2025\ub144 5\uc6d4 9\uc77c \uc774\ud6c4 \ucc98\uc74c\uc73c\ub85c **200\uc77c \ub2e8\uc21c\uc774\ub3d9\ud3c9\uade0(200-day simple moving average, \ucd5c\uadfc 200\uc77c \uc885\uac00\uc758 \ud3c9\uade0\uc73c\ub85c \uc7a5\uae30 \ucd94\uc138\ub97c \ubcf4\ub294 \ub300\ud45c \uc9c0\ud45c)** \uc544\ub798\ub85c \ub0b4\ub824\uc654\ub2e4.\n\n\ub2e4\uc74c \ubaa9\ud45c \uad6c\uac04\uc740 6,079 \ubd80\uadfc\uc774\ub2e4. \uc774\ub294 2025~26 \ub7a0\ub9ac\uc758 **\ud53c\ubcf4\ub098\uce58 \ub418\ub3cc\ub9bc(Fibonacci retracement, \ud2b9\uc815 \uc0c1\uc2b9\/\ud558\ub77d \ud3ed\uc744 38.2%\u00b750%\u00b761.8% \ub4f1 \ube44\uc728\ub85c \ub418\ub3cc\ub9ac\ub294 \uc9c0\uc810)** 38.2%\uc5d0 \ud574\ub2f9\ud558\uba70, \ubcf8\ubb38\uc5d0\uc11c\ub294 6,078\ub3c4 \ud568\uaed8 \uc5b8\uae09\ub410\ub2e4. SPX\uac00 7,002 \uc544\ub798\uc5d0 \uc788\ub294 \ud55c \uc774 \uc804\ub9dd\uc740 \uc720\ud6a8\ud558\uba70, 7,002\ub97c \uc6c3\ub3cc\uba74 \uc7ac\ud3c9\uac00\uac00 \ud544\uc694\ud558\ub2e4.\n\nS&#038;P 500\uc740 1\uc6d4 28\uc77c 7,002\uc5d0\uc11c \uc758\ubbf8 \uc788\ub294 \uace0\uc810\uc744 \ud615\uc131\ud55c \ub4a4 \uc0c8\ub85c\uc6b4 \ud558\ub77d \ucd94\uc138 \ucd08\uae30 \uad6d\uba74\uc5d0 \ub4e4\uc5b4\uc120 \uac83\uc73c\ub85c \ubcf4\uc778\ub2e4. \ud558\ub77d\uc774 \ubcf5\uc7a1\ud558\uace0 \uacb9\uce58\ub294 \ud615\ud0dc\uc778 \uc810\uc740 \u2018\ub9ac\ub529 \ub2e4\uc774\uc560\uace0\ub110\u2019 \ud328\ud134\uc744 \uc2dc\uc0ac\ud55c\ub2e4. \uc774\ub294 \ud558\ub77d \uacbd\ub85c\uac00 \ub9e4\ub044\ub7fd\uc9c0 \uc54a\ub354\ub77c\ub3c4, \ud070 \ubc29\ud5a5\uc774 \uc57d\uc138\ub85c \ubc14\ub00c\uc5c8\uc744 \uac00\ub2a5\uc131\uc744 \ub73b\ud55c\ub2e4.\n\n\uc774\ub7ec\ud55c \uc804\ub9dd\uc744 \uc804\uc81c\ub85c **\ud30c\uc0dd\uc0c1\ud488(derivatives, \uc9c0\uc218\u00b7\uc8fc\uc2dd \ub4f1 \uae30\ucd08\uc790\uc0b0 \uac00\uaca9\uc744 \ubc14\ud0d5\uc73c\ub85c \uac00\uce58\uac00 \uc815\ud574\uc9c0\ub294 \uc0c1\ud488)** \ud22c\uc790\uc790\ub294 \ucd94\uac00 \ud558\ub77d\uc5d0 \ub300\ube44\ud55c \ud3ec\uc9c0\uc158\uc744 \uace0\ub824\ud560 \uc218 \uc788\ub2e4. **\ud48b\uc635\uc158(put option, \uc815\ud574\uc9c4 \uac00\uaca9\uc5d0 \ud314 \uc218 \uc788\ub294 \uad8c\ub9ac)** \ub9e4\uc218\ub098 **\ubca0\uc5b4 \ucf5c \uc2a4\ud504\ub808\ub4dc(bear call spread, \ub192\uc740 \ud589\uc0ac\uac00 \ucf5c \ub9e4\ub3c4+\ub354 \ub192\uc740 \ud589\uc0ac\uac00 \ucf5c \ub9e4\uc218\ub85c \ud504\ub9ac\ubbf8\uc5c4\uc744 \ubc1b\uc73c\uba70 \uc81c\ud55c\uc801 \ud558\ub77d\/\ud6a1\ubcf4\uc5d0 \ubca0\ud305\ud558\ub294 \uc804\ub7b5)** \ub294 6,079 \ubaa9\ud45c\ub97c \uc804\uc81c\ub85c \ud55c \ud558\ub77d \uc2dc\ub098\ub9ac\uc624\uc5d0 \ubd80\ud569\ud55c\ub2e4. \uc774 \uad6c\uac04\uc740 2025\ub144 \ub0b4\ub0b4 \uc774\uc5b4\uc838 \uc62c\ud574 \ucd08\uae4c\uc9c0 \uc774\uc5b4\uc9c4 \ud070 \uc0c1\uc2b9\uc758 \ud575\uc2ec \ub418\ub3cc\ub9bc \uc9c0\uc810\uc774\ub2e4.\n\n\ud5a5\ud6c4 \uc218\uc77c \ub0b4 \ub2e8\uae30 \ubc18\ub4f1(\ud558\ub77d \uc911 (ii) \ud30c\ub3d9)\uc744 \uc608\uc0c1\ud55c\ub2e4. \uc774 \ubc18\ub4f1\uc740 \ub354 \uc720\ub9ac\ud55c \uac00\uaca9\uc5d0\uc11c \uc57d\uc138 \ud3ec\uc9c0\uc158\uc744 \uad6c\ucd95\ud558\ub294 \uae30\ud68c\ub85c \ubcfc \uc218 \uc788\ub2e4. \ubc18\ub4f1\uc740 \uc77c\uc2dc\uc801\uc77c \uac00\ub2a5\uc131\uc774 \ud06c\uba70, \uc911\uc694\ud55c 7,002 \uace0\uc810\uc740 \uba85\ud655\ud788 \ud558\ud68c\ud560 \uac83\uc73c\ub85c \uc608\uc0c1\ub41c\ub2e4.\n\n<h3>Volatility And Macro Backdrop<\/h3>\n\uc2dc\uc7a5 \ubd88\uc548 \uc2ec\ub9ac\ub294 \ubcc0\ub3d9\uc131 \uc9c0\ud45c\uc5d0\uc11c\ub3c4 \ud655\uc778\ub41c\ub2e4. VIX\uac00 \ucd5c\uadfc 24\ub97c \ub118\uc5b4\uc130\ub294\ub370, \uc774\ub294 2025\ub144 4\ubd84\uae30 \uc774\ud6c4 \uc9c0\uc18d\uc801\uc73c\ub85c \ubcf4\uc774\ub358 \uc218\uc900\uc740 \uc544\ub2c8\ub2e4. **\ub0b4\uc7ac\ubcc0\ub3d9\uc131(implied volatility, \uc635\uc158 \uac00\uaca9\uc5d0 \ub0b4\uc7ac\ub41c \u2018\uc608\uc0c1 \ubcc0\ub3d9\uc131\u2019)** \uc0c1\uc2b9\uc740 \uc635\uc158 \uac00\uaca9(\ud504\ub9ac\ubbf8\uc5c4)\uc744 \uc62c\ub824, \uc9c4\uc785 \uc2dc\uc810\uc744 \ub9de\ucd98 \ud22c\uc790\uc790\uc5d0\uac8c \uc720\ub9ac\ud558\uac8c \uc791\uc6a9\ud560 \uc218 \uc788\ub2e4. SPX\uac00 200\uc77c \uc774\ub3d9\ud3c9\uade0 \uc544\ub798\ub85c \ub0b4\ub824\uc628 \ub4a4 \ub098\ud0c0\ub09c \uac70\uce5c \ub4f1\ub77d\uc740 \uc2dc\uc7a5\uc758 \ubd88\ud655\uc2e4\uc131\uc744 \ubcf4\uc5ec\uc900\ub2e4.\n<p>\n\n<p><strong>\uc9c0\uae08 \ubc14\ub85c \uac70\ub798\ub97c \uc2dc\uc791\ud558\uc138\uc694 &#8211; VT Markets \uc2e4\uacc4\uc88c\ub97c \uac1c\uc124\ud558\ub824\uba74 <a href=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr\/trade-now\/\">\uc5ec\uae30<\/a>\ub97c \ud074\ub9ad\ud558\uc138\uc694 <\/strong> <\/p>\n<!-- \/wp:post-content -->","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>SPX, 7,002 \uc5d4\ub529 \ub2e4\uc774\uc560\uace0\ub110 \u2018\uace0\uc810 \uacbd\uace0\u2019\u2026200\uc77c\uc120 \uc774\ud0c8\uc5d0 \ud558\ub77d\uc804\ud658 \ubb34\uac8c. \ub2e8\uae30 (ii) \ubc18\ub4f1 \ud6c4 6,079(38.2% \ub418\ub3cc\ub9bc) \ubaa9\ud45c \ubd80\uc0c1. VIX 24 \uc0c1\ud68c\ub85c \ubcc0\ub3d9\uc131 \ud655\ub300, \ud48b\u00b7\ubca0\uc5b4\ucf5c \uc804\ub7b5 \uc720\ud6a8.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-41983","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/41983","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=41983"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/41983\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=41983"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=41983"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=41983"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}