{"id":41867,"date":"2026-03-19T20:43:56","date_gmt":"2026-03-19T20:43:56","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr\/uncategorized\/%eb%9d%bc%ea%b0%80%eb%a5%b4%eb%93%9c-3%ec%9b%94-%ed%9a%8c%ec%9d%98%ec%97%90%ec%84%9c-ecb%ec%9d%98-%ea%b8%b0%ec%a4%80%ea%b8%88%eb%a6%ac-%eb%8f%99%ea%b2%b0-%ea%b2%b0%ec%a0%95-%eb%b0%b0%ea%b2%bd\/"},"modified":"2026-03-19T20:43:56","modified_gmt":"2026-03-19T20:43:56","slug":"%eb%9d%bc%ea%b0%80%eb%a5%b4%eb%93%9c-3%ec%9b%94-%ed%9a%8c%ec%9d%98%ec%97%90%ec%84%9c-ecb%ec%9d%98-%ea%b8%b0%ec%a4%80%ea%b8%88%eb%a6%ac-%eb%8f%99%ea%b2%b0-%ea%b2%b0%ec%a0%95-%eb%b0%b0%ea%b2%bd","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/live-updates\/%eb%9d%bc%ea%b0%80%eb%a5%b4%eb%93%9c-3%ec%9b%94-%ed%9a%8c%ec%9d%98%ec%97%90%ec%84%9c-ecb%ec%9d%98-%ea%b8%b0%ec%a4%80%ea%b8%88%eb%a6%ac-%eb%8f%99%ea%b2%b0-%ea%b2%b0%ec%a0%95-%eb%b0%b0%ea%b2%bd\/","title":{"rendered":"\ub77c\uac00\ub974\ub4dc, 3\uc6d4 \ud68c\uc758\uc5d0\uc11c ECB\uc758 \uae30\uc900\uae08\ub9ac \ub3d9\uacb0 \uacb0\uc815 \ubc30\uacbd\uc744 \uc124\uba85\ud558\uace0 \ud5a5\ud6c4 \uc815\ucc45 \ubc29\ud5a5\uc5d0 \uad00\ud55c \uae30\uc790\ub4e4\uc758 \uc9c8\ubb38\uc5d0 \ub2f5\ud558\ub2e4"},"content":{"rendered":"ECB(\uc720\ub7fd\uc911\uc559\uc740\ud589)\ub294 3\uc6d4 \ud68c\uc758\uc5d0\uc11c \uae08\ub9ac\ub97c \uadf8\ub300\ub85c \uc720\uc9c0\ud588\ub2e4. **\uc8fc\uc694 refinanc\u00ading rate(\uc2dc\uc911\uc740\ud589\uc5d0 \uc911\uc559\uc740\ud589\uc774 \ub2e8\uae30 \uc790\uae08\uc744 \ube4c\ub824\uc904 \ub54c \uc801\uc6a9\ud558\ub294 \uae30\uc900\uae08\ub9ac)**\ub294 2.15%, **marginal lending facility(\uc740\ud589\uc774 \uc911\uc559\uc740\ud589\uc5d0\uc11c \ud558\ub8fb\ubc24 \uae34\uae09\ub300\ucd9c\uc744 \ubc1b\uc744 \ub54c\uc758 \uae08\ub9ac)**\ub294 2.4%, **deposit facility(\uc740\ud589\uc774 \ub0a8\ub294 \ub3c8\uc744 \uc911\uc559\uc740\ud589\uc5d0 \ub9e1\uae38 \ub54c \ubc1b\ub294 \uae08\ub9ac)**\ub294 2%\ub2e4. \ub77c\uac00\ub974\ub4dc \ucd1d\uc7ac\ub294 \uacb0\uc815\uc774 \ub9cc\uc7a5\uc77c\uce58\uc600\ub2e4\uace0 \ub9d0\ud588\uace0, **\ub2e8\uae30\uae08\ub9ac(\ub9cc\uae30\uac00 \uc9e7\uc740 \uc2dc\uc7a5\uae08\ub9ac)**\uac00 \uc62c\ub790\ub2e4\uace0 \uc5b8\uae09\ud588\ub2e4.\n\n\ub77c\uac00\ub974\ub4dc \ucd1d\uc7ac\ub294 \uc804\uc7c1\uc774 **\uc6d0\uc790\uc7ac \uc2dc\uc7a5(\uc5d0\ub108\uc9c0\u00b7\uae08\uc18d\u00b7\ub18d\uc0b0\ubb3c \uac19\uc740 \uae30\ucd08 \uc0c1\ud488 \uc2dc\uc7a5)**\uc744 \ud754\ub4e4\uace0 **\uc2e0\ub8b0(\uac00\uacc4\u00b7\uae30\uc5c5\uc758 \uacbd\uc81c\uc5d0 \ub300\ud55c \uc2ec\ub9ac)**\ub97c \uc57d\ud654\uc2dc\ud0a4\uace0 \uc788\ub2e4\uace0 \ub9d0\ud588\ub2e4. \ub610\ud55c \uc911\ub3d9 \uc804\uc7c1\uc774 **\uae08\uc735\uc5ec\uac74(\ub3c8\uc744 \ube4c\ub9ac\uace0 \ud22c\uc790\ud558\uae30 \uc26c\uc6b4 \uc815\ub3c4: \uae08\ub9ac, \ub300\ucd9c \uc870\uac74, \uc2dc\uc7a5 \ubd84\uc704\uae30 \ub4f1)**\uc744 \ub354 \ube61\ube61\ud558\uac8c \ub9cc\ub4e4\uc5c8\ub2e4\uace0 \ud588\ub2e4. \uadf8\ub294 \uc131\uc7a5 \uc704\ud5d8\uc740 \ud558\ubc29(\uc131\uc7a5 \ub454\ud654 \ucabd)\uc73c\ub85c, \ubb3c\uac00 \uc704\ud5d8\uc740 \ub2e8\uae30\uc801\uc73c\ub85c \uc0c1\ubc29(\ubb3c\uac00 \uc0c1\uc2b9 \ucabd)\uc73c\ub85c \uae30\uc6b8\uc5b4\uc838 \uc788\ub2e4\uace0 \ub9d0\ud588\ub2e4.\n\n<h3>Inflation Outlook And Policy Signals<\/h3>\n\uadf8\ub294 \uc5d0\ub108\uc9c0 \uac00\uaca9\uc774 \ub2e8\uae30\uc801\uc73c\ub85c \ubb3c\uac00\uc0c1\uc2b9\ub960\uc744 2% \uc704\ub85c \ubc00\uc5b4 \uc62c\ub9b4 \uac83\uc73c\ub85c \uc608\uc0c1\ub41c\ub2e4\uace0 \ub9d0\ud588\ub2e4. \ub2e4\ub9cc **\uae30\uc870 \ubb3c\uac00(\uc77c\uc2dc\uc801 \ubcc0\ub3d9\uc774 \ud070 \ud488\ubaa9\uc744 \ube7c\uace0 \ubcf8 \ubb3c\uac00 \ud750\ub984)**\ub97c \ubcf4\uc5ec\uc8fc\ub294 \uc9c0\ud45c\ub4e4\uc740 2% \ubaa9\ud45c\uc640 \ub300\uccb4\ub85c \ub9de\ub294\ub2e4\uace0 \ud588\ub2e4. \ub610 \uae30\uc5c5 \uc774\uc775\uc774 \ud68c\ubcf5\ub410\uace0 **\ub178\ub3d9\ube44\uc6a9(\uc784\uae08\uacfc \uac01\uc885 \uace0\uc6a9 \uad00\ub828 \ube44\uc6a9)**\uc774 \uc62c\ub790\uc73c\uba70, **\uc784\uae08 \uc9c0\ud45c(\ud5a5\ud6c4 \uc784\uae08 \ud750\ub984\uc744 \ubcf4\uc5ec\uc8fc\ub294 \ud1b5\uacc4)**\ub294 \uc784\uae08 \uc0c1\uc2b9\uc138\uac00 \uacc4\uc18d \uc644\ud654\ub418\ub294 \ucabd\uc744 \uac00\ub9ac\ud0a8\ub2e4\uace0 \ub9d0\ud588\ub2e4.\n\nECB\ub294 \uc9c1\uc6d0 \uc804\ub9dd\uce58\uac00 3\uc6d4 11\uc77c\uae4c\uc9c0\uc758 \uc815\ubcf4\ub97c \ubc18\uc601\ud558\uba70, 12\uc6d4 \uc804\ub9dd\uce58\ubcf4\ub2e4 \ubb3c\uac00 \uc804\ub9dd\uc744 \uc62c\ub838\uace0 \ud2b9\ud788 2026\ub144\uc774 \ub354 \ud06c\uac8c \uc62c\ub790\ub2e4\uace0 \ubc1d\ud614\ub2e4. **\uc5d0\ub108\uc9c0\u00b7\uc2dd\ub8cc\ud488\uc744 \ube80 \ubb3c\uac00(\ubcc0\ub3d9\uc774 \ud070 \ud56d\ubaa9\uc744 \uc81c\uc678\ud574 \ubb3c\uac00\uc758 \uae30\ubcf8 \ud750\ub984\uc744 \ubcf4\ub824\ub294 \uc9c0\ud45c)**\ub294 2026\ub144 2.3%, 2027\ub144 2.2%, 2028\ub144 2.1%\ub85c \uc804\ub9dd\ub410\ub2e4. \uc131\uc7a5\uc740 2026\ub144 0.9%, 2027\ub144 1.3%, 2028\ub144 1.4%\ub85c \uc804\ub9dd\ub410\ub2e4.\n\nECB\ub294 **\ub370\uc774\ud130 \uae30\ubc18(\uacbd\uc81c\uc9c0\ud45c\ub97c \ubcf4\uace0 \ud310\ub2e8\ud558\ub294 \ubc29\uc2dd)**\uc73c\ub85c, \ud68c\uc758\ub9c8\ub2e4 \uacb0\uc815\ud558\uaca0\ub2e4\uace0 \ud588\uace0, **\uae08\ub9ac \uacbd\ub85c(\uc55e\uc73c\ub85c \uae08\ub9ac\ub97c \uc5b4\ub5bb\uac8c \uc6c0\uc9c1\uc77c\uc9c0\uc5d0 \ub300\ud55c \uc0ac\uc804 \uc57d\uc18d)**\ub294 \ubbf8\ub9ac \uc57d\uc18d\ud558\uc9c0 \uc54a\uaca0\ub2e4\uace0 \ubc1d\ud614\ub2e4. \ub610\ud55c **APP, PEPP(ECB\uc758 \uc790\uc0b0\ub9e4\uc785 \ud504\ub85c\uadf8\ub7a8: \ucc44\uad8c\uc744 \uc0ac\uc11c \uc2dc\uc7a5\uc5d0 \ub3c8\uc744 \uacf5\uae09\ud558\ub294 \uc815\ucc45)** \ubcf4\uc720\ubd84\uc740 **\ub9cc\uae30 \ub3c4\ub798(\ucc44\uad8c\uc774 \ub9cc\uae30\ub418\uc5b4 \uc6d0\uae08\uc774 \ub3cc\uc544\uc624\ub294 \uac83)** \uc2dc \uc7ac\ud22c\uc790\ud558\uc9c0 \uc54a\uc73c\uba74\uc11c \uc904\uc5b4\ub4e4 \uac83\uc774\ub77c\uace0 \ud588\ub2e4. \uacb0\uc815 \ud6c4 **EUR\/USD(\uc720\ub85c\/\ub2ec\ub7ec \ud658\uc728)**\ub294 0.45% \uc62c\ub77c 1.1500\uc774\uc5c8\ub2e4.\n\n<h3>Positioning For Volatility<\/h3>\n\uc6b0\ub9ac\ub294 **VSTOXX \uc9c0\uc218(\uc720\ub85c\uc874 \ub300\ud45c \uc8fc\uac00\uc9c0\uc218\uc778 Euro Stoxx 50\uc758 \ubcc0\ub3d9\uc131, \uc989 \uac00\uaca9 \ucd9c\ub801\uc784\uc744 \uc218\uce58\ub85c \ub098\ud0c0\ub0b8 \uc9c0\ud45c)**\uac00 \uc9c0\ub09c \ud55c \ub2ec \ub3d9\uc548 30% \ub118\uac8c \uc62c\ub77c 24\ub97c \uc6c3\ub3c4\ub294 \uc218\uc900\uc5d0\uc11c \uac70\ub798\ub418\ub294 \uac83\uc744 \ubd24\ub2e4. \uc774\ub294 2024\ub144 \ub9d0 \uc2dc\uc7a5\uc774 \ud754\ub4e4\ub9ac\ub358 \ub54c \uc774\ud6c4 \uc624\ub79c\ub9cc\uc758 \uc218\uc900\uc774\ub2e4. \uc774\ub294 \ud22c\uc790\uc790\ub4e4\uc774 \uc720\ub7fd \uc8fc\uc2dd\uc2dc\uc7a5\uc774 \ud06c\uac8c \ud754\ub4e4\ub9b4 \uc218 \uc788\ub2e4\uace0 \ub300\ube44\ud558\uace0 \uc788\ub2e4\ub294 \ub73b\uc774\ub2e4. \uc8fc\uc694 \uc9c0\uc218\uc5d0\uc11c **\uc2a4\ud2b8\ub798\ub4e4(straddle: \uac19\uc740 \ub9cc\uae30\u00b7\uac19\uc740 \ud589\uc0ac\uac00\uc758 \ucf5c\uc635\uc158\uacfc \ud48b\uc635\uc158\uc744 \ud568\uaed8 \uc0ac\uc11c, \uc704\ub4e0 \uc544\ub798\ub4e0 \ud06c\uac8c \uc6c0\uc9c1\uc774\uba74 \uc774\uc775\uc744 \ub178\ub9ac\ub294 \uc804\ub7b5)**\uc774\ub098 **\uc2a4\ud2b8\ub7ad\uae00(strangle: \ub9cc\uae30\ub9cc \uac19\uace0 \ud589\uc0ac\uac00\uac00 \uc11c\ub85c \ub2e4\ub978 \ucf5c\u00b7\ud48b\uc744 \ud568\uaed8 \uc0ac\uc11c \ud070 \ubcc0\ub3d9\uc5d0 \ubca0\ud305\ud558\ub294 \uc804\ub7b5)**\uc744 \ub9e4\uc218\ud558\uba74, \ud3c9\ud654 \uc18c\uc2dd\uc73c\ub85c \uae09\ub4f1\ud558\ub4e0 \uc804\uc7c1\uc774 \ucee4\uc838 \uae09\ub77d\ud558\ub4e0 \uc218\uc775 \uae30\ud68c\ub97c \ub178\ub9b4 \uc218 \uc788\ub2e4.\n\n\uae08\ub9ac \uce21\uba74\uc5d0\uc11c\ub294 ECB\uac00 \ub3d9\uacb0\uc774\uc9c0\ub9cc, \uc5d0\ub108\uc9c0 \uac00\uaca9\uc774 \ubb3c\uac00\ub97c \ub354 \ubc00\uc5b4 \uc62c\ub9ac\uba74 **\ub9e4\ud30c\uc801(hawkish: \ubb3c\uac00\ub97c \uc7a1\uae30 \uc704\ud574 \uae08\ub9ac\ub97c \ub354 \uc62c\ub9ac\ub824\ub294 \uc131\ud5a5)**\uc73c\ub85c \uae5c\uc9dd \ubcc0\ud654\uac00 \ub098\uc62c \uc704\ud5d8\uc774 \ub354 \ud06c\ub2e4. **FRA(Forward Rate Agreement, \uae08\ub9ac\uc120\ub3c4\uacc4\uc57d: \ubbf8\ub798\uc758 \ud2b9\uc815 \uae30\uac04\uc5d0 \uc801\uc6a9\ub420 \uae08\ub9ac\ub97c \uc9c0\uae08 \ubbf8\ub9ac \uace0\uc815\ud558\ub294 \uacc4\uc57d)**\ub294 \uc774\uc81c 3\ubd84\uae30 \ub9d0\uae4c\uc9c0 **25bp(\ubca0\uc774\uc2dc\uc2a4\ud3ec\uc778\ud2b8: 0.01%p, 25bp=0.25%p)** \uc778\uc0c1\uc744 \ubc18\uc601\ud558\uace0 \uc788\ub294\ub370, \uc774\ub294 2\uc8fc \uc804\uacfc \ube44\uad50\ud558\uba74 \ud070 \ubcc0\ud654\ub2e4. \uc6b0\ub9ac\ub294 3~4\uc6d4 \ubb3c\uac00\uc5d0\uc11c \uc5d0\ub108\uc9c0 \ube44\uc6a9\uc774 **\ud575\uc2ec \ubb3c\uac00(core prices: \ubcc0\ub3d9\uc774 \ud070 \ud56d\ubaa9\uc744 \ube80 \ubb3c\uac00)**\ub85c \ubc88\uc9c0\ub294 \ubaa8\uc2b5\uc774 \ub098\uc624\uba74 \uc608\uc0c1\ubcf4\ub2e4 \ube60\ub978 \uae34\ucd95\uc5d0 \ub300\ube44\ud574 **EURIBOR \uc120\ubb3c \uc635\uc158(EURIBOR: \uc720\ub85c\uc874 \uc740\ud589 \uac04 \ub2e8\uae30\uae08\ub9ac \uae30\uc900 \uc911 \ud558\ub098, \uc120\ubb3c\/\uc635\uc158\uc740 \uc774\ub97c \uae30\ucd08\ub85c \ud55c \ud30c\uc0dd\uc0c1\ud488)**\uc744 \ud65c\uc6a9\ud560 \uc218 \uc788\ub2e4.\n\nEUR\/USD\ub294 \uc704\ud5d8\ud68c\ud53c \ubd84\uc704\uae30\uac00 \ub2ec\ub7ec\ub97c \uc720\ub9ac\ud558\uac8c \ub9cc\ub4dc\ub294 \ud750\ub984\uacfc, ECB\uac00 \ub354 \ub9e4\ud30c\uc801\uc73c\ub85c \ubc14\ub014 \uc218 \uc788\ub2e4\ub294 \uac00\ub2a5\uc131 \uc0ac\uc774\uc5d0 \ub07c\uc5ec \uc788\ub2e4. \ub2e4\ub9cc **\uc5f0\uc900(Federal Reserve, \ubbf8\uad6d \uc911\uc559\uc740\ud589)**\ub3c4 \uac15\uacbd\ud55c \uc785\uc7a5\uc744 \uc720\uc9c0\ud558\uace0 \uc788\uc5b4, \ub2e8\uae30\uc801\uc73c\ub85c\ub294 **\uc548\uc804\uc790\uc0b0(safe-haven: \ubd88\ud655\uc2e4\ud560 \ub54c \uc120\ud638\ub418\ub294 \uc790\uc0b0)**\uc73c\ub85c\uc11c \ub2ec\ub7ec\uc758 \ud798\uc774 \ub354 \ud06c\uac8c \uc791\uc6a9\ud560 \uac00\ub2a5\uc131\uc774 \ub192\ub2e4. \ud22c\uc790\uc790\ub4e4\uc740 \uc774\ub2ec \ucd08\ubd80\ud130 \uc911\uc694\ud558\uac8c \ubcf4\uc600\ub358 **\uc9c0\uc9c0\uc120(support level: \uac00\uaca9\uc774 \ub0b4\ub824\uc624\uba74 \ubc84\ud2f0\ub294 \uacbd\ud5a5\uc774 \uc788\ub294 \uad6c\uac04)** 1.1411 \uc544\ub798\ub85c \ub5a8\uc5b4\uc9c0\ub294 \uc704\ud5d8\uc744 \ub9c9\uae30 \uc704\ud574 **\ud48b\uc635\uc158(\uac00\uaca9 \ud558\ub77d \uc2dc \uc774\uc775\uc774 \ub098\uac70\ub098 \uc190\uc2e4\uc744 \ub9c9\ub294 \uad8c\ub9ac)**\uc744 \uc4f0\ub294 \ubaa8\uc2b5\uc774 \ubcf4\uc778\ub2e4.\n\n\uc804\uccb4 \uc0c1\ud669\uc758 \ud575\uc2ec\uc740 \uc720\uac00\ub2e4. **ICE Futures Europe(\uc720\ub7fd \uc6d0\uc790\uc7ac \uc120\ubb3c\uac70\ub798\uc18c)** \uc790\ub8cc\uc5d0 \ub530\ub974\uba74 \ubd84\uc7c1 \uc774\ud6c4 \uc720\uac00\ub294 \ubc30\ub7f4\ub2f9 110\ub2ec\ub7ec\ub97c \ub118\uae30\uba70 15% \ub6f0\uc5c8\ub2e4. 2022\ub144 \uc5d0\ub108\uc9c0 \uc704\uae30\ub97c \ub5a0\uc62c\ub9ac\uba74, \uc5d0\ub108\uc9c0 \ucda9\uaca9\uc740 \uacbd\uae30\uce68\uccb4 \uc704\ud5d8\uc774 \uc788\ub354\ub77c\ub3c4 \uc911\uc559\uc740\ud589\uc774 \ube60\ub974\uac8c \uc6c0\uc9c1\uc774\uac8c \ub9cc\ub4e4 \uc218 \uc788\ub2e4. \ub530\ub77c\uc11c **\ube0c\ub80c\ud2b8\uc720 \uc120\ubb3c \ucf5c\uc635\uc158(Brent crude futures call options: \ube0c\ub80c\ud2b8\uc720 \uac00\uaca9\uc774 \uc624\ub97c \ub54c \uc774\uc775\uc744 \ub178\ub9ac\ub294 \uad8c\ub9ac)**\uc744 \uc4f0\ub294 \uac83\uc740 ECB\uac00 \uc9c0\uae08 \uc801\uadf9\uc801\uc73c\ub85c \uac00\uc815\ud558\ub294 **\uc2ec\uac01\ud55c \uc2dc\ub098\ub9ac\uc624(severe scenario: \uc0c1\ud669\uc774 \ub354 \uc545\ud654\ub418\ub294 \uac00\uc815)**\uc5d0 \uc9c1\uc811 \ubca0\ud305\ud558\ub294 \ubc29\ubc95\uc774\ub2e4.\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph-->\n<p><b>VT Markets \ub77c\uc774\ube0c \uacc4\uc815\uc744 \ub9cc\ub4e4\uace0 \uc9c0\uae08 \ubc14\ub85c <a href=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr\/trade-now\/\">\uac70\ub798<\/a>\ub97c \uc2dc\uc791\ud558\uc138\uc694.<\/b><\/p>\n<!-- \/wp:post-content -->","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>ECB, \uae08\ub9ac \ub3d9\uacb0\uc778\ub370 \uc2dc\uc7a5\uc740 \ud3ed\ud48d \uc804\uc57c? \uc804\uc7c1\u00b7\uc720\uac00 \uae09\ub4f1\uc774 \uc778\ud50c\ub808 \uc0c1\ubc29, \uc131\uc7a5 \ud558\ubc29 \ud0a4\uc6b0\uba70 \ubcc0\ub3d9\uc131 \ud655\ub300. 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