{"id":41842,"date":"2026-03-19T17:45:04","date_gmt":"2026-03-19T17:45:04","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr\/uncategorized\/%ec%9d%b4%eb%9e%80-%ec%a0%84%ec%9f%81%eb%b0%9c-%ec%97%90%eb%84%88%ec%a7%80-%ec%b6%a9%ea%b2%a9%ea%b3%bc-%ec%97%b0%ec%a4%80-%eb%a7%a4%ed%8c%8c-%ea%b8%b0%ec%a1%b0%ec%97%90-%ec%9c%84%ed%97%98%ec%9e%90\/"},"modified":"2026-03-19T17:45:04","modified_gmt":"2026-03-19T17:45:04","slug":"%ec%9d%b4%eb%9e%80-%ec%a0%84%ec%9f%81%eb%b0%9c-%ec%97%90%eb%84%88%ec%a7%80-%ec%b6%a9%ea%b2%a9%ea%b3%bc-%ec%97%b0%ec%a4%80-%eb%a7%a4%ed%8c%8c-%ea%b8%b0%ec%a1%b0%ec%97%90-%ec%9c%84%ed%97%98%ec%9e%90","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/live-updates\/%ec%9d%b4%eb%9e%80-%ec%a0%84%ec%9f%81%eb%b0%9c-%ec%97%90%eb%84%88%ec%a7%80-%ec%b6%a9%ea%b2%a9%ea%b3%bc-%ec%97%b0%ec%a4%80-%eb%a7%a4%ed%8c%8c-%ea%b8%b0%ec%a1%b0%ec%97%90-%ec%9c%84%ed%97%98%ec%9e%90\/","title":{"rendered":"\uc774\ub780 \uc804\uc7c1\ubc1c \uc5d0\ub108\uc9c0 \ucda9\uaca9\uacfc \uc5f0\uc900 \ub9e4\ud30c \uae30\uc870\uc5d0 \uc704\ud5d8\uc790\uc0b0 \uc555\ubc15\u2026\uc911\uc559\uc740\ud589\ub4e4 \uae34\ucd95 \uc18d \ub2ec\ub7ec \uac15\uc138"},"content":{"rendered":"\uc774\ub780 \uc804\uc7c1\uc774 \uc5d0\ub108\uc9c0 \uc778\ud504\ub77c\uc5d0 \ub300\ud55c \ucd94\uac00\uc801\uc778 \uc9c1\uc811 \ud0c0\uaca9\uc73c\ub85c \uc774\uc5b4\uc9c0\uba74\uc11c \ube0c\ub80c\ud2b8\uc720\uc640 \uc720\ub7fd \ucc9c\uc5f0\uac00\uc2a4 \uac00\uaca9\uc774 \uc0c1\uc2b9\ud588\ub2e4. \uc5d0\ub108\uc9c0 \ube44\uc6a9 \uc0c1\uc2b9, \uae34\ucd95\uc801\uc778(\uae08\ub9ac \uc778\ud558\uc5d0 \uc2e0\uc911\ud55c) \ubbf8 \uc5f0\ubc29\uc900\ube44\uc81c\ub3c4(Fed), \uadf8\ub9ac\uace0 \ub2e4\ub978 \uc911\uc559\uc740\ud589\ub4e4\uc758 \uae34\ucd95 \uc131\ud5a5\uc774 \uacb9\uce58\uba70 \uc704\ud5d8\uc790\uc0b0(\uc8fc\uc2dd\u00b7\uace0\uc704\ud5d8 \ucc44\uad8c \ub4f1)\uc5d0\ub294 \ubd80\ub2f4\uc774, \ubbf8 \ub2ec\ub7ec\uc5d0\ub294 \uc9c0\uc9c0\uac00 \ub098\ud0c0\ub0ac\ub2e4. \n\n\uc5f0\ubc29\uacf5\uac1c\uc2dc\uc7a5\uc704\uc6d0\ud68c(FOMC\u00b7Fed\uc758 \uae08\ub9ac \uacb0\uc815 \ud68c\uc758)\ub294 \uae08\ub9ac\ub97c \ub3d9\uacb0\ud588\uc9c0\ub9cc, \uc2dc\uc7a5\uc5d0\uc11c\ub294 \ub9e4\ud30c\uc801(\uc778\ud50c\ub808\uc774\uc158 \uc5b5\uc81c\ub97c \uc704\ud574 \uae08\ub9ac\ub97c \ub192\uac8c \uc720\uc9c0\ud558\ub824\ub294) \ub3d9\uacb0\ub85c \ud574\uc11d\ub410\ub2e4. \uc5f0\ubc29\uae30\uae08\uae08\ub9ac \uc120\ubb3c(Fed funds futures\u00b7\ud5a5\ud6c4 \uae30\uc900\uae08\ub9ac \uc218\uc900\uc5d0 \ub300\ud55c \uc2dc\uc7a5 \uae30\ub300\ub97c \ubc18\uc601\ud558\ub294 \ud30c\uc0dd\uc0c1\ud488)\uc740 \ud5a5\ud6c4 12\uac1c\uc6d4 \uc608\uc0c1 \uae08\ub9ac \uc778\ud558 \ud3ed\uc744 2\uc6d4 27\uc77c \uc774\uc804 -60bp(\ubca0\uc774\uc2dc\uc2a4\ud3ec\uc778\ud2b8\u00b70.01%p)\uc5d0\uc11c -9bp\ub85c \ud06c\uac8c \uc904\uc600\ub2e4. \n\n

Fed \uc804\ub9dd \ubcc0\ud654<\/h3>\nFed\ub294 \uacbd\uc81c \uc804\ub9dd\uc5d0 \ub300\ud55c \ubd88\ud655\uc2e4\uc131\uc774 \uc5ec\uc804\ud788 \ub192\ub2e4\uace0 \uc7ac\ud655\uc778\ud588\ub2e4. \uc5c5\ub370\uc774\ud2b8\ub41c \uc804\ub9dd\uc5d0\uc11c \uc2e4\uc9c8 GDP \uc131\uc7a5\ub960(\ubb3c\uac00\ub97c \uc81c\uc678\ud55c \uc131\uc7a5\ub960) \uc804\ub9dd\uc740 \uc804 \uad6c\uac04\uc5d0\uc11c \uc0c1\ud5a5\ub410\uace0, \uac1c\uc778\uc18c\ube44\uc9c0\ucd9c(PCE) \ubb3c\uac00(\uac00\uacc4 \uc18c\ube44\ub97c \ubc14\ud0d5\uc73c\ub85c \uacc4\uc0b0\ud558\ub294 Fed\uc758 \ud575\uc2ec \ubb3c\uac00 \uc9c0\ud45c)\uc640 \uadfc\uc6d0 PCE \ubb3c\uac00(\ubcc0\ub3d9\uc131\uc774 \ud070 \uc2dd\ud488\u00b7\uc5d0\ub108\uc9c0\ub97c \uc81c\uc678\ud55c \ubb3c\uac00)\ub97c 2026\ub144 2.7%\ub85c \uc62c\ub838\ub2e4. \ubb3c\uac00\ub294 2028\ub144\uc5d0 2.0%\ub85c \ubcf5\uadc0\ud560 \uac83\uc73c\ub85c \uc81c\uc2dc\ud588\ub2e4. \n\n\uc810\ub3c4\ud45c(dot plot\u00b7\uac01 FOMC \uc704\uc6d0\uc774 \uc608\uc0c1\ud558\ub294 \ud5a5\ud6c4 \uc815\ucc45\uae08\ub9ac \uc218\uc900\uc744 \uc810\uc73c\ub85c \ud45c\uc2dc\ud55c \ud45c)\ub294 2026\ub144 1\ud68c, 2027\ub144 1\ud68c\uc758 \uae08\ub9ac \uc778\ud558\ub97c \uc2dc\uc0ac\ud588\uc73c\uba70 2028\ub144 \uc804\ub9dd\uc740 \ubcc0\ub3d9\uc774 \uc5c6\uc5c8\ub2e4. \uc7a5\uae30\uae08\ub9ac \ucd94\uc815\uce58(\uc911\ub9bd\uae08\ub9ac\u00b7\uacbd\uae30\ub97c \uacfc\uc5f4\uc2dc\ud0a4\uc9c0\ub3c4 \uce68\uccb4\uc2dc\ud0a4\uc9c0\ub3c4 \uc54a\ub294\ub2e4\uace0 \ubcf4\ub294 \uc7a5\uae30 \uade0\ud615 \uae08\ub9ac)\ub294 12\uc6d4 3.0%\uc5d0\uc11c 3.125%\ub85c \uc0c1\uc2b9\ud588\ub2e4. \n\n\uc81c\ub86c \ud30c\uc6d4 Fed \uc758\uc7a5\uc740 \ud604\uc7ac \uc815\ucc45\uc774 \uc801\uc808\ud558\uba70 \uae08\ub9ac\ub294 \uc644\ub9cc\ud558\uac8c \uc81c\ud55c\uc801(\uacbd\uae30\uc5d0\ub294 \ubd80\ub2f4\uc744 \uc8fc\ub294 \uc218\uc900)\uc774\uc5b4\uc57c \ud55c\ub2e4\uace0 \ub9d0\ud588\ub2e4. \ub2e4\uc74c \uc870\uce58\uac00 \uae08\ub9ac \uc778\uc0c1\uc774 \ub420 \uac00\ub2a5\uc131\ub3c4 \ub17c\uc758\ub410\ub2e4\uace0 \ubc1d\ud614\ub2e4. \n\n

\uc2dc\uc7a5\uc5d0 \ub300\ud55c \ub9e4\ub9e4 \uc2dc\uc0ac\uc810<\/h3>\n\uc2dc\uc7a5\uc740 \uae08\ub9ac \uc778\ud558 \uae30\ub300\ub97c \ube60\ub974\uac8c \ub418\ub3cc\ub9ac\ub294 \uc911\uc774\uc5b4\uc11c \ub2ec\ub7ec \uac15\uc138 \uc9c0\uc18d\uc5d0 \ub300\ube44\ud560 \ud544\uc694\uac00 \uc788\ub2e4. \ub2ec\ub7ec\uc778\ub371\uc2a4(DXY\u00b7\ub2ec\ub7ec\uac00 \uc720\ub85c \ub4f1 \uc8fc\uc694 \ud1b5\ud654 \ub300\ube44 \uc5bc\ub9c8\ub098 \uac15\ud55c\uc9c0 \ubcf4\uc5ec\uc8fc\ub294 \uc9c0\uc218)\ub294 \uc5f0\ub9d0 \uc774\ud6c4 \ucd5c\uace0 \uc218\uc900\uc73c\ub85c \uc62c\ub790\ub2e4. \ub2ec\ub7ec \ucf5c\uc635\uc158(\ud2b9\uc815 \uac00\uaca9\uc5d0 \uc0b4 \uc218 \uc788\ub294 \uad8c\ub9ac) \ub9e4\uc218 \ub610\ub294 \uc720\ub85c \uac19\uc740 \ud1b5\ud654\uc758 \ud48b\uc635\uc158(\ud2b9\uc815 \uac00\uaca9\uc5d0 \ud314 \uc218 \uc788\ub294 \uad8c\ub9ac) \ub9e4\uc218\uac00 \ub300\uc548\uc774 \ub420 \uc218 \uc788\ub2e4. \n\n\uc5d0\ub108\uc9c0 \uc778\ud504\ub77c\uac00 \uc9c1\uc811 \ud0c0\uaca9\uc744 \ubc1b\ub294 \ub9cc\ud07c \uc720\uac00 \uc0c1\uc2b9\uc5d0 \ubca0\ud305\ud558\ub294 \uc218\uc694\ub3c4 \ucee4\uc9c8 \uc218 \uc788\ub2e4. \ube0c\ub80c\ud2b8\uc720\ub294 \ubc30\ub7f4\ub2f9 115\ub2ec\ub7ec\ub97c \ub118\uc5b4\uc130\ub2e4. \uc720\uac00 \uad00\ub828 ETF(\uc0c1\uc7a5\uc9c0\uc218\ud380\ub4dc\u00b7\uc9c0\uc218\ub098 \uc0c1\ud488 \uac00\uaca9\uc744 \ucd94\uc885\ud558\ub3c4\ub85d \uac70\ub798\uc18c\uc5d0 \uc0c1\uc7a5\ub41c \ud380\ub4dc) \ucf5c\uc635\uc158\uc744 \ud65c\uc6a9\ud558\uba74 \uc9c0\uc815\ud559\uc801 \uae34\uc7a5\uc774 \uc774\uc5b4\uc9c8 \ub54c \ucd94\uac00 \uae09\ub4f1\uc5d0 \ub178\ucd9c\ub420 \uc218 \uc788\ub2e4. \n\n\uc8fc\uc2dd\uc2dc\uc7a5\uc5d0\uc11c\ub294 \ucd94\uac00 \ud558\ub77d\uacfc \ubcc0\ub3d9\uc131 \ud655\ub300\uc5d0 \ub300\ube44\ud574\uc57c \ud55c\ub2e4. S&P500 \uc9c0\uc218\ub294 Fed\uc758 \ub9e4\ud30c\uc801 \uba54\uc2dc\uc9c0 \uc774\ud6c4 4% \uc774\uc0c1 \ud558\ub77d\ud588\uace0, \ub192\uc740 \uc5d0\ub108\uc9c0 \ube44\uc6a9\uc740 \uae30\uc5c5 \uc774\uc775(\uc2e4\uc801)\uc5d0 \ubd80\ub2f4\uc774\ub2e4. SPY(\ubbf8\uad6d S&P500 \ucd94\uc885 ETF)\ub098 QQQ(\ub098\uc2a4\ub2e5100 \ucd94\uc885 ETF) \uac19\uc740 \uc8fc\uc694 \uc9c0\uc218 ETF\uc758 \ud48b\uc635\uc158\uc774 \ubc29\uc5b4 \ub610\ub294 \ud558\ub77d \ubca0\ud305 \uc218\ub2e8\uc774 \ub420 \uc218 \uc788\ub2e4. \n\nFed\uc758 \uc804\ub9dd\uacfc \ud30c\uc6d4 \ubc1c\uc5b8\uc740 \uc815\ucc45 \uc644\ud654(\uae08\ub9ac \uc778\ud558)\ub85c \uc804\ud658\ud558\uae30 \uc704\ud55c \uc870\uac74\uc774 \uae4c\ub2e4\ub86d\ub2e4\ub294 \uc758\ubbf8\ub2e4. \uae08\ub9ac \uc778\uc0c1 \uac00\ub2a5\uc131\uae4c\uc9c0 \uc5b8\uae09\ub41c \ub9cc\ud07c \ucc44\uad8c\uae08\ub9ac(\uc218\uc775\ub960\u00b7\uc2dc\uc7a5 \uae08\ub9ac)\ub294 \uc0c1\uc2b9 \uc555\ub825\uc744 \ubc1b\uae30 \uc27d\uace0, \uc774\ub294 \ucc44\uad8c \uac00\uaca9 \ud558\ub77d\uc744 \ub73b\ud55c\ub2e4. \uc7a5\uae30\ucc44(\ub9cc\uae30\uac00 \uae34 \ucc44\uad8c)\uc5d0\ub294 \ubd88\ub9ac\ud558\uba70, TLT(\ubbf8\uad6d \uc7a5\uae30 \uad6d\ucc44 ETF) \ud48b\uc635\uc158 \ub4f1\uc73c\ub85c \ub300\uc751\ud558\ub294 \ubc29\uc2dd\uc774 \uac70\ub860\ub420 \uc218 \uc788\ub2e4. \n\n\ubd88\ud655\uc2e4\uc131\uc774 \ucee4\uc9c4 \ub9cc\ud07c \ubcc0\ub3d9\uc131\ub3c4 \ub192\uc740 \uc218\uc900\uc744 \uc720\uc9c0\ud560 \uac00\ub2a5\uc131\uc774 \ud06c\ub2e4. VIX \uc9c0\uc218(\ubcc0\ub3d9\uc131 \uc9c0\uc218\u00b7S&P500 \uc635\uc158 \uac00\uaca9\uc73c\ub85c \uacc4\uc0b0\ud558\ub294 \uc2dc\uc7a5 \uacf5\ud3ec \uc9c0\ud45c)\ub294 \uc9c0\ub09c\uc8fc\uc5d0\ub9cc \uc57d 20% \uae09\ub4f1\ud588\ub2e4. VIX \ucf5c\uc635\uc158\uc740 \ubcc0\ub3d9\uc131 \uc0c1\uc2b9\uc5d0 \uc9c1\uc811\uc801\uc73c\ub85c \ub300\uc751\ud558\ub294 \uc218\ub2e8\uc774 \ub420 \uc218 \uc788\ub2e4.\n

\n\n

\uc9c0\uae08 \ubc14\ub85c \uac70\ub798\ub97c \uc2dc\uc791\ud558\uc138\uc694 – VT Markets \uc2e4\uacc4\uc88c\ub97c \uac1c\uc124\ud558\ub824\uba74 \uc5ec\uae30<\/a>\ub97c \ud074\ub9ad\ud558\uc138\uc694 <\/strong> <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

\u2018\uc911\ub3d9\ubc1c \uc5d0\ub108\uc9c0 \uc1fc\ud06c\u2019\uc5d0 \uc2dc\uc7a5 \ud754\ub4e4\u2026\uc720\uac00\u00b7\uac00\uc2a4 \uae09\ub4f1 \uc18d Fed \ub9e4\ud30c\uc801 \ub3d9\uacb0\ub85c \ub2ec\ub7ec \uac15\uc138, \uc704\ud5d8\uc790\uc0b0 \uc555\ubc15. \uae08\ub9ac\uc778\ud558 \uae30\ub300 \uae09\ud6c4\ud1f4\uc5d0 \uc8fc\uc2dd\u00b7\uc7a5\uae30\ucc44\u00b7\ubcc0\ub3d9\uc131 \ub300\uc751 \uc804\ub7b5 \ubd80\uac01.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-41842","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/41842","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=41842"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/41842\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=41842"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=41842"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=41842"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}