{"id":41717,"date":"2026-03-19T03:43:58","date_gmt":"2026-03-19T03:43:58","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr\/uncategorized\/%ed%8c%8c%ec%9b%94%ec%9d%98-%ec%9d%b8%ed%94%8c%eb%a0%88%ec%9d%b4%ec%85%98-%ea%b2%bd%ea%b3%a0%eb%a1%9c-aud-usd%ea%b0%80-1-15-%ed%95%98%eb%9d%bd-0-7100-%eb%b6%80%ea%b7%bc%ec%97%90%ec%84%9c\/"},"modified":"2026-03-19T03:43:58","modified_gmt":"2026-03-19T03:43:58","slug":"%ed%8c%8c%ec%9b%94%ec%9d%98-%ec%9d%b8%ed%94%8c%eb%a0%88%ec%9d%b4%ec%85%98-%ea%b2%bd%ea%b3%a0%eb%a1%9c-aud-usd%ea%b0%80-1-15-%ed%95%98%eb%9d%bd-0-7100-%eb%b6%80%ea%b7%bc%ec%97%90%ec%84%9c","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/live-updates\/%ed%8c%8c%ec%9b%94%ec%9d%98-%ec%9d%b8%ed%94%8c%eb%a0%88%ec%9d%b4%ec%85%98-%ea%b2%bd%ea%b3%a0%eb%a1%9c-aud-usd%ea%b0%80-1-15-%ed%95%98%eb%9d%bd-0-7100-%eb%b6%80%ea%b7%bc%ec%97%90%ec%84%9c\/","title":{"rendered":"\ud30c\uc6d4\uc758 \uc778\ud50c\ub808\uc774\uc158 \uacbd\uace0\ub85c AUD\/USD\uac00 1.15% \ud558\ub77d\u2026 0.7100 \ubd80\uadfc\uc5d0\uc11c \uc800\ud56d\uc5d0 \ub9c9\ud600 0.7025 \uc218\uc900\uc5d0\uc11c \ub9c8\uac10"},"content":{"rendered":"AUD\/USD\ub294 \uc218\uc694\uc77c\uc5d0 \uc57d 1.15% \ud558\ub77d\ud558\uba70 0.7100 \ubd80\uadfc\uc5d0\uc11c \ub418\ub3cc\ub9bc(\uac00\uaca9\uc774 \ubabb \uc62c\ub77c\uac00\uace0 \ubc00\ub9bc)\uc774 \ub098\uc654\uace0, \uc7a0\uc2dc 0.7120 \uc704\uc5d0\uc11c \uac70\ub798\ub41c \ub4a4 0.7025 \uadfc\ucc98\uc5d0\uc11c \ub9c8\uac10\ud588\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4. \uc774\ubc88 \ud558\ub77d\uc73c\ub85c \uc5f0\ucd08 \ucd5c\uace0\uc810(\uc62c\ud574 \ub4e4\uc5b4 \uac00\uc7a5 \ub192\uc740 \uac12)\uc778 0.7190 \ubd80\uadfc\uc744 \ub2e4\uc2dc \ub118\uc9c0 \ubabb\ud588\ub358 \ud750\ub984\uc774 \uc7ac\ud655\uc778\ub410\uace0, \uc9c1\uc804 2\uac70\ub798\uc77c\uc758 \uc0c1\uc2b9\ubd84\ub3c4 \uc0ac\ub77c\uc84c\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4.\n\n\ubbf8\uad6d \uc911\uc559\uc740\ud589(Fed, \uc5f0\ubc29\uc900\ube44\uc81c\ub3c4)\uc740 \uae30\uc900\uae08\ub9ac\ub97c \uadf8\ub300\ub85c \ub480\uace0, \uc758\uc7a5 \uc81c\ub86c \ud30c\uc6d4\uc740 \ubb3c\uac00(\uc778\ud50c\ub808\uc774\uc158) \uc548\uc815\uc774 \uc608\uc0c1\ubcf4\ub2e4 \ub354\ub514\ub2e4\uace0 \ub9d0\ud588\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4. 2026\ub144 \uadfc\uc6d0(\ud575\uc2ec) \ubb3c\uac00 \uc804\ub9dd\uce58\ub294 2.5%\uc5d0\uc11c 2.7%\ub85c \uc62c\ub77c\uac14\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4. \uc5ec\uae30\uc11c **\uadfc\uc6d0(\ud575\uc2ec) \ubb3c\uac00**\ub294 food(\uc2dd\ub8cc\ud488)\u00b7energy(\uc5d0\ub108\uc9c0)\ucc98\ub7fc \uac00\uaca9\uc774 \ud06c\uac8c \ud754\ub4e4\ub9ac\ub294 \ud56d\ubaa9\uc744 \uc81c\uc678\ud574, \ubb3c\uac00\uc758 \uae30\ubcf8 \ud750\ub984\uc744 \ubcf4\ub824\ub294 \uc9c0\ud45c\uc785\ub2c8\ub2e4. \ub610\ud55c \ubbf8\uad6d \uc0dd\uc0b0\uc790\ubb3c\uac00\uc9c0\uc218(PPI, \uae30\uc5c5\uc774 \ubb3c\uac74\uc744 \ud314 \ub54c\uc758 \uac00\uaca9 \uc218\uc900)\ub294 \uc804\uc6d4 \ub300\ube44 0.7%\ub85c \uc608\uc0c1(0.3%)\ubcf4\ub2e4 \ub192\uc558\uace0, \uc804\ub144 \ub300\ube44\ub294 3.4%\ub85c \uc774\uc804(2.9%)\ubcf4\ub2e4 \ub192\uc558\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4. **PPI**\ub294 \uc18c\ube44\uc790\ubb3c\uac00(CPI)\ubcf4\ub2e4 \uba3c\uc800 \uc6c0\uc9c1\uc77c \ub54c\uac00 \uc788\uc5b4 \ubb3c\uac00 \uc555\ub825\uc744 \uac00\ub2a0\ud558\ub294 \ub370 \uc4f0\uc785\ub2c8\ub2e4.\n\n

Fed And Rba Policy Divergence<\/h3>\n\ud638\uc8fc \uc911\uc559\uc740\ud589(RBA, \ud638\uc8fc\uc900\ube44\uc740\ud589)\uc740 5\u20134 \ud45c\uacb0\ub85c \uae08\ub9ac\ub97c 25bp(0.25%\ud3ec\uc778\ud2b8) \uc62c\ub824 4.10%\ub85c \ub9cc\ub4e4\uc5c8\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4. **bp(\ubca0\uc774\uc2dc\uc2a4 \ud3ec\uc778\ud2b8)**\ub294 \uae08\ub9ac \ubcc0\ud654\ub97c \ub098\ud0c0\ub0b4\ub294 \ub2e8\uc704\ub85c, 25bp\ub294 0.25%\ud3ec\uc778\ud2b8\uc785\ub2c8\ub2e4. RBA\ub294 \uacbd\uae30\uc758 **\uacf5\uae09 \ub2a5\ub825(\uc0dd\uc0b0\u00b7\uc778\ub825\u00b7\uc2dc\uc124 \uc5ec\ub825)**\uc774 \ubd80\uc871\ud55c \uc555\ub825\uacfc, \uc911\ub3d9 \ubd84\uc7c1\uacfc \uc5f0\uad00\ub41c \uc5d0\ub108\uc9c0 \uac00\uaca9 \uc601\ud5a5(\uae30\ub984\uac12 \uc0c1\uc2b9 \ub4f1)\uc744 \uc774\uc720\ub85c \ub4e4\uc5c8\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4. \ud638\uc8fc\uc758 2\uc6d4 \uace0\uc6a9\uc740 +20.3K(\uc57d 2\ub9cc 300\uba85 \uc99d\uac00), \uc2e4\uc5c5\ub960\uc740 4.1%\uac00 \uc608\uc0c1\ub418\uba70, RBA \uae08\uc735\uc548\uc815\ubcf4\uace0\uc11c\ub3c4 \ud568\uaed8 \ub098\uc635\ub2c8\ub2e4. **\uae08\uc735\uc548\uc815\ubcf4\uace0\uc11c**\ub294 \uac00\uacc4\ubd80\ucc44, \uc8fc\ud0dd\uc2dc\uc7a5, \uae08\uc735\uae30\uad00 \uc704\ud5d8 \uac19\uc740 \uae08\uc735 \uc2dc\uc2a4\ud15c\uc758 \uc704\ud5d8\uc744 \uc810\uac80\ud558\ub294 \ubcf4\uace0\uc11c\uc785\ub2c8\ub2e4.\n\nAUD\/USD\ub294 0.7022 \uadfc\ucc98\uc600\uace0, \uc9c0\uc9c0\uc120(\uac00\uaca9\uc774 \ubc84\ud2f0\uae30 \uc26c\uc6b4 \uad6c\uac04)\uc740 0.7010, \uadf8\ub2e4\uc74c 0.6960\uacfc 0.6900\uc785\ub2c8\ub2e4. \uc800\ud56d\uc120(\uac00\uaca9\uc774 \ub9c9\ud788\uae30 \uc26c\uc6b4 \uad6c\uac04)\uc740 0.7075\uc640 0.7120\uc774\uba70, \uadf8 \uc704\ub85c 0.7150\uacfc 0.7200\uc774 \uc788\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4.\n\n\ud638\uc8fc\ub2ec\ub7ec(AUD)\uc5d0 \uc601\ud5a5\uc744 \uc8fc\ub294 \uc694\uc778\uc73c\ub85c\ub294 RBA \uae08\ub9ac, \uc911\uad6d \uc218\uc694, \ubb3c\uac00, \uc131\uc7a5(\uacbd\uae30), \ubb34\uc5ed\uc218\uc9c0(\uc218\ucd9c-\uc218\uc785 \ucc28\uc774), \uc704\ud5d8\uc120\ud638 \uc2ec\ub9ac(\ud22c\uc790\uc790\ub4e4\uc774 \uc704\ud5d8\uc790\uc0b0\uc744 \uc88b\uc544\ud558\ub294\uc9c0), \uadf8\ub9ac\uace0 \ucca0\uad11\uc11d\uc774 \uc788\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4. \ucca0\uad11\uc11d\uc740 2021\ub144\uc5d0 \uc5f0\uac04 \uc57d 1180\uc5b5 \ub2ec\ub7ec \uaddc\ubaa8\ub85c \ud3c9\uac00\ub410\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4. RBA\ub294 \ubb3c\uac00\uc0c1\uc2b9\ub960 2\u20133%\ub97c \ubaa9\ud45c\ub85c \ud558\uba70, \ud544\uc694\ud558\uba74 **\uc591\uc801\uc644\ud654(QE)**\ub098 **\uc591\uc801\uae34\ucd95(QT)**\uc744 \uc4f8 \uc218 \uc788\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4. **\uc591\uc801\uc644\ud654**\ub294 \uc911\uc559\uc740\ud589\uc774 \ucc44\uad8c \ub4f1\uc744 \uc0ac\uc11c \uc2dc\uc7a5\uc5d0 \ub3c8\uc744 \ub354 \ud480\uc5b4 \uae08\ub9ac\ub97c \ub0ae\ucd94\uace0 \uacbd\uae30\ub97c \ub3d5\ub294 \uc815\ucc45\uc774\uace0, **\uc591\uc801\uae34\ucd95**\uc740 \ubc18\ub300\ub85c \ubcf4\uc720 \uc790\uc0b0\uc744 \uc904\uc774\uac70\ub098 \uc7ac\ud22c\uc790\ub97c \uba48\ucdb0 \uc2dc\uc7a5\uc758 \ub3c8\uc744 \uc904\uc774\ub294 \uc815\ucc45\uc785\ub2c8\ub2e4.\n\nLooking back at the analysis from 2025, we can see the market was grappling with a hawkish Federal Reserve and a Reserve Bank of Australia that was still raising rates. The rejection of AUD\/USD from the 0.7100 level at that time was a significant warning. Today, with the pair trading near 0.6550, those concerns from last year have clearly materialized and intensified.\n\n

Outlook And Trading Implications<\/h3>\n2025\ub144\uc5d0 Fed\uac00 2026\ub144 \uadfc\uc6d0 \ubb3c\uac00\uac00 \ub354 \ub192\uc544\uc9c8 \uc218 \uc788\ub2e4\uace0 \ubcf8 \uc804\ub9dd\uc740 \ub9de\uc544\ub5a8\uc5b4\uc84c\uace0, 2026\ub144 2\uc6d4 \ucd5c\uc2e0 \uc790\ub8cc\uc5d0\uc11c\ub3c4 \ubbf8\uad6d \uadfc\uc6d0 CPI(\uc18c\ube44\uc790\ubb3c\uac00 \uc0c1\uc2b9\ub960)\uac00 \uc804\ub144 \ub300\ube44 3.8%\ub85c \uc27d\uac8c \ub0b4\ub824\uc624\uc9c0 \uc54a\uace0 \uc788\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4. \uc774 \ub54c\ubb38\uc5d0 \ubbf8\uad6d \ub2ec\ub7ec\uac00 \uac15\uc138\ub97c \uc720\uc9c0\ud558\uace0 \uc788\uace0, \uae08\ub9ac \uc778\ud558\uac00 \ub354 \ub4a4\ub85c \ubc00\ub9ac\uace0 \uc788\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4. \ud2b8\ub808\uc774\ub354\ub294 AUD\/USD\uac00 \uc624\ub97c \ub54c\ub9c8\ub2e4 \ud558\ub77d\uc5d0 \ubca0\ud305\ud560 \uae30\ud68c\ub85c \ubcfc \uc218 \uc788\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4. \uc608\ub97c \ub4e4\uc5b4 **\ud48b\uc635\uc158 \ub9e4\uc218**(\uac00\uaca9 \ud558\ub77d \uc2dc \uc774\uc775\uc774 \ub098\ub294 \uad8c\ub9ac)\ub098 **\ubca0\uc5b4 \ucf5c \uc2a4\ud504\ub808\ub4dc**(\ub354 \ub0ae\uc740 \ud589\uc0ac\uac00\uc758 \ucf5c\uc744 \ud314\uace0 \ub354 \ub192\uc740 \ud589\uc0ac\uac00\uc758 \ucf5c\uc744 \uc0ac\uc11c, \uc0c1\uc2b9\uc744 \uc81c\ud55c\uc801\uc73c\ub85c \ub9c9\ub294 \uad6c\uc870)\ub97c \ud65c\uc6a9\ud560 \uc218 \uc788\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4. **\uc635\uc158**\uc740 \ud2b9\uc815 \uac00\uaca9(\ud589\uc0ac\uac00)\uc5d0 \uc0b4 \uad8c\ub9ac(\ucf5c) \ub610\ub294 \ud314 \uad8c\ub9ac(\ud48b)\ub97c \ub9d0\ud569\ub2c8\ub2e4.\n\n\ud638\uc8fc\uc5d0\uc11c\ub294 2025\ub144 \ucd08 RBA\uc758 \uae08\ub9ac \uc778\uc0c1 \uc774\ud6c4 \uc0c1\ud669\uc774 \ubc14\ub00c\uc5c8\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4. 2026\ub144 2\uc6d4 \uace0\uc6a9\ubcf4\uace0\uc11c\uc5d0\uc11c \uc2e4\uc5c5\ub960\uc740 4.2%\ub85c \uc18c\ud3ed \uc62c\ub790\uace0, \ucd5c\uadfc GDP(\uad6d\ub0b4\ucd1d\uc0dd\uc0b0, \ud55c \ub098\ub77c\uac00 \uc77c\uc815 \uae30\uac04\uc5d0 \ub9cc\ub4e0 \ubd80\uac00\uac00\uce58\uc758 \ud569) \uc790\ub8cc\ub294 \uacbd\uae30 \ub454\ud654\uac00 \ub69c\ub837\ud568\uc744 \ubcf4\uc5ec\uc90d\ub2c8\ub2e4. \ubbf8\uad6d Fed\ub294 \uc5ec\uc804\ud788 \ub9e4\ud30c(\uae08\ub9ac \uc778\uc0c1\u00b7\uace0\uae08\ub9ac\ub97c \uc120\ud638)\uc778 \ubc18\uba74, RBA\ub294 \ube44\ub458\uae30\ud30c(\uae08\ub9ac \uc778\ud558\u00b7\uc644\ud654 \ucabd)\ub85c \uae30\uc6b8\uace0 \uc788\uc5b4, \uc774\ub7f0 \uc815\ucc45 \ucc28\uc774\uac00 \ud638\uc8fc\ub2ec\ub7ec\uc5d0 \uc9c0\uc18d\uc801\uc778 \ud558\ub77d \uc555\ub825\uc73c\ub85c \uc791\uc6a9\ud569\ub2c8\ub2e4.\n\n\ub610\ud55c \uc791\ub144 \uc774\ud6c4 \ud638\uc8fc\ub2ec\ub7ec \uac15\uc138\ub97c \uc9c0\ud0f1\ud558\ub358 \ud575\uc2ec \uc694\uc778 \ub450 \uac00\uc9c0\uac00 \uc57d\ud574\uc84c\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4. \uc8fc\uc694 \uc218\ucd9c\ud488\uc778 \ucca0\uad11\uc11d \uac00\uaca9\uc740 \uc218\uc694 \uc6b0\ub824\ub85c \ud1a4\ub2f9 100\ub2ec\ub7ec \uc544\ub798\ub85c \ub0b4\ub824\uac00, \uba87 \ub2ec \ub9cc\uc5d0 \ucc98\uc74c\uc73c\ub85c 100\ub2ec\ub7ec\ub97c \ubc11\ub3cc\uc558\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4. \uc911\uad6d\uc758 \uacbd\uae30 \ud68c\ubcf5\ub3c4 \ub354\ub518\ub370, \ucd5c\uadfc \uc81c\uc870\uc5c5 PMI(\uad6c\ub9e4\uad00\ub9ac\uc790\uc9c0\uc218, \uae30\uc5c5 \uad6c\ub9e4 \ub2f4\ub2f9\uc790 \uc124\ubb38\uc73c\ub85c \uacbd\uae30\uc758 \ud655\uc7a5\u00b7\uc704\ucd95\uc744 \ubcf4\ub294 \uc9c0\ud45c)\uac00 49.1\ub85c \uc5ec\uc804\ud788 \uc704\ucd95 \uad6c\uac04(\ubcf4\ud1b5 50 \ubbf8\ub9cc)\uc744 \ub098\ud0c0\ub0c5\ub2c8\ub2e4.\n\n\uc774\ub7f0 \uc0c1\ud669\uc5d0\uc11c\ub294 \ubc18\ub4f1\uc774 \ud06c\uc9c0 \uc54a\uace0, \uc624\ub97c \ub54c\ub9c8\ub2e4 \ub9e4\ub3c4(\ud314\ub824\uc11c \ub2e4\uc2dc \ub0b4\ub824\uac10)\uac00 \ub098\uc62c \uac00\ub2a5\uc131\uc774 \ud07d\ub2c8\ub2e4. 0.6900\uc740 2025\ub144\uc5d0\ub294 \uc9c0\uc9c0\uc120 \ud6c4\ubcf4\ub85c \ubcf4\uc600\uc9c0\ub9cc, \uc774\uc81c\ub294 \uc7a5\uae30\uc801\uc73c\ub85c \uc911\uc694\ud55c \uc800\ud56d \uad6c\uac04\uc73c\ub85c \ubcf4\ub294 \ud3b8\uc774 \ub354 \ud0c0\ub2f9\ud569\ub2c8\ub2e4. \ubc15\uc2a4\uad8c(\ubc94\uc704 \uc548\uc5d0\uc11c \uc624\ub974\ub0b4\ub9bc) \ub610\ub294 \ucd94\uac00 \ud558\ub77d\uc5d0 \uc720\ub9ac\ud55c \uc804\ub7b5, \uc608\ub97c \ub4e4\uc5b4 **\uc678\uac00\uaca9(out-of-the-money) \ucf5c\uc635\uc158 \ub9e4\ub3c4**(\ud604\uc7ac \uac00\uaca9\ubcf4\ub2e4 \ud6e8\uc52c \uc704\uc758 \ud589\uc0ac\uac00 \ucf5c\uc744 \ud314\uc544 \ud504\ub9ac\ubbf8\uc5c4\uc744 \ubc1b\ub294 \ubc29\uc2dd)\ub294 \ud5a5\ud6c4 \uba87 \uc8fc\uc5d0 \uac78\uccd0 \uace0\ub824\ud560 \ub9cc\ud569\ub2c8\ub2e4. **\uc678\uac00\uaca9**\uc740 \uc635\uc158\uc758 \ud589\uc0ac\uac00\uac00 \ud604\uc7ac \uac00\uaca9\uacfc \uba40\uc5b4, \ub2f9\uc7a5 \uc774\uc775\uc774 \ub098\uae30 \uc5b4\ub824\uc6b4 \uc0c1\ud0dc\ub97c \ub73b\ud569\ub2c8\ub2e4.\n\n\n

VT Markets \ub77c\uc774\ube0c \uacc4\uc815\uc744 \ub9cc\ub4e4\uace0 \uc9c0\uae08 \ubc14\ub85c \uac70\ub798<\/a>\ub97c \uc2dc\uc791\ud558\uc138\uc694.<\/b><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

0.7100 \ub3cc\ud30c \uc2e4\ud328 \ud6c4 AUD\/USD 1.15% \uae09\ub77d, \uc5f0\uc911 \uace0\uc810 \uc7ac\uc2dc\ud5d8 \uc88c\uc808. Fed \uc778\ud50c\ub808 \uacbd\uace0\ub85c \ub2ec\ub7ec \uac15\uc138 \uc9c0\uc18d, RBA\ub294 \ub454\ud654 \uc870\uc9d0. \ubc18\ub4f1\uc740 \ub9e4\ub3c4 \uae30\ud68c, 0.6900\uc740 \uc800\ud56d. – vtmarkets.com<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":103,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-41717","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/41717","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/103"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=41717"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/41717\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=41717"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=41717"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=41717"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}