{"id":41641,"date":"2026-03-18T19:43:36","date_gmt":"2026-03-18T19:43:36","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr\/uncategorized\/%ec%8a%88%eb%a2%b0%eb%8d%94%eb%8a%94-%eb%8d%94-%eb%b9%84%ec%8b%bc-%ec%9c%a0%ea%b0%80%ec%99%80-%ec%99%84%ea%b0%95%ed%95%9c-%ec%9d%b8%ed%94%8c%eb%a0%88%ec%9d%b4%ec%85%98-%ea%b8%b0%eb%8c%80-%eb%95%8c\/"},"modified":"2026-03-18T19:43:36","modified_gmt":"2026-03-18T19:43:36","slug":"%ec%8a%88%eb%a2%b0%eb%8d%94%eb%8a%94-%eb%8d%94-%eb%b9%84%ec%8b%bc-%ec%9c%a0%ea%b0%80%ec%99%80-%ec%99%84%ea%b0%95%ed%95%9c-%ec%9d%b8%ed%94%8c%eb%a0%88%ec%9d%b4%ec%85%98-%ea%b8%b0%eb%8c%80-%eb%95%8c","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/live-updates\/%ec%8a%88%eb%a2%b0%eb%8d%94%eb%8a%94-%eb%8d%94-%eb%b9%84%ec%8b%bc-%ec%9c%a0%ea%b0%80%ec%99%80-%ec%99%84%ea%b0%95%ed%95%9c-%ec%9d%b8%ed%94%8c%eb%a0%88%ec%9d%b4%ec%85%98-%ea%b8%b0%eb%8c%80-%eb%95%8c\/","title":{"rendered":"\uc288\ub8b0\ub354\ub294 \ub354 \ube44\uc2fc \uc720\uac00\uc640 \uc644\uac15\ud55c \uc778\ud50c\ub808\uc774\uc158 \uae30\ub300 \ub54c\ubb38\uc5d0 \uae08\ub9ac \uc778\ud558\uac00 \uc9c0\uc5f0\ub418\uba74\uc11c \uc5f0\uc900\uc774 \uae08\ub9ac\ub97c \ub3d9\uacb0\ud558\uace0 \uc5f0\ub9d0 \uc778\ud558\ub97c \uae30\ub2e4\ub9b4 \uac83\uc73c\ub85c \uc608\uc0c1\ud55c\ub2e4"},"content":{"rendered":"ING\uc758 \ubca4\uc800\ubbfc \uc288\ub85c\ub354\ub294 \ubbf8 \uc5f0\ubc29\uc900\ube44\uc81c\ub3c4(Fed, \ubbf8\uad6d\uc758 \uc911\uc559\uc740\ud589)\uac00 3\uc6d4 FOMC \ud68c\uc758\uc5d0\uc11c **\uae30\uc900\uae08\ub9ac\ub97c \ub3d9\uacb0**\ud560 \uac83\uc73c\ub85c \ubcf8\ub2e4. \uc720\uac00 \uc0c1\uc2b9\uacfc \uc778\ud50c\ub808\uc774\uc158(\ubb3c\uac00 \uc0c1\uc2b9) \uae30\ub300\uac00 \ub192\uc740 \uc0c1\ud0dc\ub294 **\uae08\ub9ac \uc778\ud558(\uae08\ub9ac\ub97c \ub0b4\ub9ac\ub294 \uac83)** \ud544\uc694\uc131\uc744 \uc57d\ud558\uac8c \ub9cc\ub4dc\ub294 \uc694\uc778\uc73c\ub85c \uc124\uba85\ub41c\ub2e4.\n\n\uc2dc\uc7a5\uc740 \uc774\ubc88 \ud68c\uc758\uc5d0\uc11c \uc778\ud558\uac00 \uc5c6\uc744 \uac00\ub2a5\uc131\uc5d0 \ub9de\ucdb0 \uc6c0\uc9c1\uc774\uace0 \uc788\uc73c\uba70, **\uccab \ubc88\uc9f8 \uc778\ud558**\ub294 **\uc5f0\ub9d0\ucbe4**\uc5d0\uc57c \ucda9\ubd84\ud788 \ubc18\uc601\ub418\uace0 \uc788\ub2e4. \ub610 \uc2dc\uc7a5\uc740 **\uc5ec\ub984\ubd80\ud130** \uc778\ud558\uac00 \uc2dc\uc791\ub420 \uac00\ub2a5\uc131\uc774 \ucee4\uc9c0\uace0 \uc788\ub2e4\uace0 \ubcf8\ub2e4.\n\n<h3>Fed Holds Rates<\/h3>\n\uad00\uc2ec\uc740 Fed\uc758 **\uc5c5\ub370\uc774\ud2b8\ub41c \uc804\ub9dd**\uc5d0 \uc3e0\ub9b4 \uac83\uc73c\ub85c \ubcf4\uc774\uba70, \uc5ec\uae30\uc5d0\ub294 \uc704\uc6d0\ub4e4\uc758 \uae08\ub9ac \uc804\ub9dd\uc744 \uc810\uc73c\ub85c \ud45c\uc2dc\ud55c **\ub3c4\ud2b8\ud50c\ub86f(Dot Plot, \uc704\uc6d0\ub4e4\uc774 \uc55e\uc73c\ub85c \uc801\uc815\ud558\ub2e4\uace0 \ubcf4\ub294 \uae08\ub9ac \uc218\uc900\uc744 \uc810\uc73c\ub85c \ub098\ud0c0\ub0b8 \ud45c)** \ub3c4 \ud3ec\ud568\ub41c\ub2e4. Fed\ub294 12\uc6d4\uc5d0 2026\ub144\uc5d0 1\ud68c\uc758 \uae08\ub9ac \uc778\ud558\ub97c, 2027\ub144\uc5d0 \ucd94\uac00\ub85c **25bp** \uc778\ud558\ub97c \uc608\uc0c1\ud588\ub2e4. (**bp, \ubca0\uc774\uc2dc\uc2a4\ud3ec\uc778\ud2b8\ub294 \uae08\ub9ac \ub2e8\uc704\ub85c 25bp\ub294 0.25%\ud3ec\uc778\ud2b8\ub97c \ub73b\ud568**)\n\nING \uc774\ucf54\ub178\ubbf8\uc2a4\ud2b8\ub4e4\uc740 \uc131\uc7a5\ub960 \uc804\ub9dd\uc740 \uc57d\uac04 \ub0ae\uc544\uc9c0\uace0, \uc778\ud50c\ub808\uc774\uc158 \uc804\ub9dd\uc740 \ub192\uc544\uc9c8 \uac83\uc73c\ub85c \ubcf8\ub2e4. \ub610\ud55c 2026\ub144 \uae08\ub9ac \uc778\ud558 \uc804\ub9dd\uc774 2027\ub144\uc73c\ub85c \ubbf8\ub904\uc9c8 \uac83\uc73c\ub85c \uc608\uc0c1\ud55c\ub2e4.\n\n\uc774\ubc88 \ud68c\uc758\uc5d0\uc11c\ub294 **\ub300\ucc28\ub300\uc870\ud45c(balance sheet, Fed\uac00 \ubcf4\uc720\ud55c \uad6d\ucc44\u00b7\uc99d\uad8c \ub4f1 \uc790\uc0b0\uacfc \uc9c0\uae09\uc900\ube44\uae08 \uac19\uc740 \ubd80\ucc44\ub97c \ud569\uce5c \u2018\uc790\uc0b0 \ubaa9\ub85d\u2019)** \uacc4\ud68d\ub3c4 \ub2e4\ub8f0 \uc218 \uc788\ub2e4. \ud604\uc7ac \ud55c\uc2dc\uc801\uc73c\ub85c \ub9e4\ub2ec **\ubbf8\ud654 400\uc5b5 \ub2ec\ub7ec** \uaddc\ubaa8\ub85c \uc9c4\ud589 \uc911\uc778 **\uc900\ube44\uae08 \uad00\ub9ac \ubaa9\uc801\uc758 \ub9e4\uc785(\uc740\ud589 \uc2dc\uc2a4\ud15c\uc5d0 \uc788\ub294 \ud604\uae08\uc131 \uc790\uae08\uc778 \u2018\uc900\ube44\uae08\u2019\uc744 \uc870\uc808\ud558\ub824\uace0 \ud558\ub294 \uc790\uc0b0 \ub9e4\uc785)** \uc18d\ub3c4\ub294 4\uc6d4\uc5d0 \uc904\uc5b4\ub4e4 \uac83\uc73c\ub85c \uc608\uc0c1\ub41c\ub2e4. \uae30\uc0ac\uc5d0\uc11c\ub294 12\uc6d4 \uc911\uc21c \uc774\ud6c4 \ub300\ucc28\ub300\uc870\ud45c\uac00 **\uc21c(\u7d14) 1,300\uc5b5 \ub2ec\ub7ec** \ub298\uc5c8\ub2e4\uace0 \uc5b8\uae09\ud558\uba70, \uc774\ub97c **\uc720\ud6a8 \uc5f0\ubc29\uae30\uae08\uae08\ub9ac(Fed funds effective rate, \uc740\ud589\ub4e4\uc774 \ud558\ub8e8\uc9dc\ub9ac \uc790\uae08\uc744 \uc11c\ub85c \ube4c\ub824\uc904 \ub54c \uc2e4\uc81c\ub85c \ud615\uc131\ub418\ub294 \ud3c9\uade0 \uae08\ub9ac)** \uc640 \uc5f0\uacb0\ud574 \uc124\uba85\ud55c\ub2e4.\n\n<h3>Trading Implications<\/h3>\n**\ud30c\uc0dd\uc0c1\ud488(derivatives, \uc8fc\uc2dd\u00b7\ucc44\uad8c\u00b7\uae08\ub9ac \uac19\uc740 \u2018\uae30\ucd08\uc790\uc0b0\u2019 \uac00\uaca9\uc5d0 \ub530\ub77c \uac00\uce58\uac00 \uc6c0\uc9c1\uc774\ub294 \uacc4\uc57d)** \ud2b8\ub808\uc774\ub354\uc5d0\uac8c \uc774\ub7f0 **\ub9e4\ud30c\uc801(hawkish, \ubb3c\uac00\ub97c \uc7a1\uae30 \uc704\ud574 \uae08\ub9ac\ub97c \uc27d\uac8c \ub0b4\ub9ac\uc9c0 \uc54a\uaca0\ub2e4\ub294 \ucabd)** \ubd84\uc704\uae30\ub294 \ub2e8\uae30\uc801\uc73c\ub85c \uae08\ub9ac\uac00 \ub192\uc740 \uc218\uc900\uc744 \uc720\uc9c0\ud560 \uac00\ub2a5\uc131\uc5d0 \ub9de\ucd98 \ud3ec\uc9c0\uc158\uc744 \uc2dc\uc0ac\ud55c\ub2e4. \uad6d\ucc44 \uc120\ubb3c\uc5d0\uc11c \ub9cc\uae30\uac00 \uc9e7\uc740 **\ud48b \uc635\uc158(put, \ud2b9\uc815 \uac00\uaca9\uc5d0 \u2018\ud314 \uad8c\ub9ac\u2019)** \uc744 \ud30c\ub294 \uc804\ub7b5\uc740, \ub3d9\uacb0 \uc804\ub9dd\uc774 \ub110\ub9ac \ud37c\uc838 \uc788\ub2e4\ub294 \uc810\uc5d0\uc11c **\ud504\ub9ac\ubbf8\uc5c4(premium, \uc635\uc158\uc744 \ud314 \ub54c \ubc1b\ub294 \ub3c8)** \uc744 \uc5bb\ub294 \ubc29\ubc95\uc774 \ub420 \uc218 \uc788\ub2e4. \uc774 \uac70\ub798\ub294 Fed\uac00 **\ube44\ub458\uae30\ud30c\uc801(dovish, \uae08\ub9ac\ub97c \ub0b4\ub9ac\uac70\ub098 \uc644\ud654\uc801\uc73c\ub85c \ubc14\ub00c\ub294 \uac83)** \uc73c\ub85c \uac11\uc790\uae30 \ub3cc\uc544\uc11c\uc9c0 \uc54a\uc744 \uac83\uc774\ub77c\ub294 \uad00\uc810\uc5d0\uc11c \uc774\uc775\uc774 \ub09c\ub2e4.\n\n\ub354 \uba3c \uc2dc\uc810\uc5d0\uc11c\ub294 Fed\uc758 \uc0c8 \uc804\ub9dd\uc774 \ud575\uc2ec\uc774\uba70, \uae08\ub9ac \uc778\ud558 \uc2dc\uc810\uc774 \ub2a6\ucdb0\uc9c8 \uac83\uc73c\ub85c \ubcf8\ub2e4. \uc774\ub294 2024\ub144\uc5d0 \uc2dc\uc7a5\uc774 Fed \uc644\ud654 \uae30\ub300\ub97c \uae09\ud788 \uc904\uc600\ub358 \ubd84\uc704\uae30 \ubcc0\ud654\uc640 \ube44\uc2b7\ud558\ub2e4. **SOFR \uc120\ubb3c(SOFR futures, \ubbf8\uad6d\uc758 \ub2e8\uae30 \uae08\ub9ac \uc9c0\ud45c\uc778 SOFR\uc744 \uae30\uc900\uc73c\ub85c \ud55c \uae08\ub9ac \uc120\ubb3c)** \uc5d0\uc11c **\uce98\ub9b0\ub354 \uc2a4\ud504\ub808\ub4dc(calendar spread, \ub9cc\uae30\uac00 \ub2e4\ub978 \ub450 \uacc4\uc57d\uc744 \ub3d9\uc2dc\uc5d0 \uc0ac\uace0\ud30c\ub294 \uac70\ub798)** \ub97c \ud65c\uc6a9\ud574, \uc2dc\uac04\uc774 \uc9c0\ub098\uba70 **\uc218\uc775\ub960\uace1\uc120\uc774 \ub354 \uac00\ud314\ub77c\uc9c0\ub294 \uac83(steeper yield curve, \uc7a5\uae30\uae08\ub9ac\uac00 \ub2e8\uae30\uae08\ub9ac\ubcf4\ub2e4 \ub354 \ub192\uc544\uc9c0\ub294 \ubc29\ud5a5)** \uc5d0 \ubca0\ud305\ud558\uba74\uc11c \uc774\ub7f0 \uc9c0\uc5f0\uc5d0 \ub300\ube44\ud560 \uc218 \uc788\ub2e4.\n\n\ubd88\ud655\uc2e4\ud55c \ud658\uacbd\uc744 \uace0\ub824\ud558\uba74, \ud30c\uc6d4 \uc758\uc7a5\uc740 \uc911\uc559\uc740\ud589\uc774 \uc7a5\uae30 \uc804\ub9dd\uc5d0 \ub300\ud574 \ud655\uc2e0\uc774 \ud06c\uc9c0 \uc54a\ub2e4\ub294 \uc810\uc744 \uac15\uc870\ud560 \uac00\ub2a5\uc131\uc774 \ub192\ub2e4. \uc774\ub294 **\ubcc0\ub3d9\uc131(volatility, \uac00\uaca9\uc774 \ud06c\uac8c \ud754\ub4e4\ub9ac\ub294 \uc815\ub3c4)** \uc774 \uacc4\uc18d \uc911\uc694\ud55c \uc774\uc288\uac00 \ub41c\ub2e4\ub294 \ub73b\uc774\ub2e4. **MOVE \uc9c0\uc218(MOVE Index, \ucc44\uad8c\uc2dc\uc7a5\uc758 \ubcc0\ub3d9\uc131\uc744 \ubcf4\uc5ec\uc8fc\ub294 \uc9c0\uc218)** \ub294 \uc791\ub144 \uc800\uc810 \ub300\ube44 \uc774\ubbf8 15% \uc774\uc0c1 \uc62c\ub790\uace0, \ud5a5\ud6c4 \uc9c0\ud45c \ubc1c\ud45c \ub4a4 \ud070 \uc6c0\uc9c1\uc784\uc5d0 \ub300\ube44\ud558\ub824\uba74 \ucc44\uad8c ETF\uc5d0\uc11c **\uc2a4\ud2b8\ub798\ub4e4(straddle, \uac19\uc740 \ub9cc\uae30\u00b7\uc11c\ub85c \uac19\uc740 \uac00\uaca9\uc758 \ucf5c\uacfc \ud48b\uc744 \ud568\uaed8 \uc0ac\uc11c \ud070 \ubcc0\ub3d9\uc5d0 \ub300\ube44\ud558\ub294 \uc804\ub7b5)** \uc744 \ub9e4\uc218\ud558\ub294 \uac19\uc740 \ubc29\ubc95\uc774 \ubc29\uc5b4\uc5d0 \ub3c4\uc6c0\uc774 \ub420 \uc218 \uc788\ub2e4.\n\n\ucd5c\uadfc WTI \uc6d0\uc720 \uac00\uaca9\uc774 \ubc30\ub7f4\ub2f9 90\ub2ec\ub7ec\ub97c \ub118\uc740 \uae09\ub4f1\uc740 \uc774\ub7f0 \ubb3c\uac00 \ubd88\uc548\uc758 \uc8fc\uc694 \uc6d0\uc778\uc774\ub2e4. \uc774\ub7f0 \uc5d0\ub108\uc9c0 \uac00\uaca9 \ucda9\uaca9\uc740 Fed\uac00 \ub354 \uc870\uc2ec\uc2a4\ub7fd\uac8c, **\u201c\ub192\uc740 \uae08\ub9ac\ub97c \ub354 \uc624\ub798(higher for longer, \uae08\ub9ac\ub97c \ube68\ub9ac \ub0b4\ub9ac\uc9c0 \uc54a\uace0 \uc624\ub798 \uc720\uc9c0)\u201d** \uc720\uc9c0\ud560 \uadfc\uac70\ub97c \uac15\ud654\ud55c\ub2e4. \uc5d0\ub108\uc9c0 \uac00\uaca9\uc774 \ub354 \uc624\ub97c \uac00\ub2a5\uc131\uc5d0 \ub300\ube44\ud558\ub824\uba74, \uc8fc\uc694 \uc5d0\ub108\uc9c0 \uc139\ud130 ETF\uc758 **\ucf5c \uc635\uc158(call, \ud2b9\uc815 \uac00\uaca9\uc5d0 \u2018\uc0b4 \uad8c\ub9ac\u2019)** \uc73c\ub85c \uc704\ud5d8\uc744 \uc77c\ubd80 \uc0c1\uc1c4(\ud5e4\uc9c0)\ud558\ub294 \ubc29\ubc95\ub3c4 \uace0\ub824\ud560 \uc218 \uc788\ub2e4.\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph-->\n<p><b>VT Markets \ub77c\uc774\ube0c \uacc4\uc815\uc744 \ub9cc\ub4e4\uace0 \uc9c0\uae08 \ubc14\ub85c <a href=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr\/trade-now\/\">\uac70\ub798<\/a>\ub97c \uc2dc\uc791\ud558\uc138\uc694.<\/b><\/p>\n<!-- \/wp:post-content -->","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>\uc778\ud50c\ub808\u00b7\uc720\uac00\uac00 \ubc1c\ubaa9 \uc7a1\ub294\ub2e4: 3\uc6d4 FOMC\ub294 \uae08\ub9ac \ub3d9\uacb0 \uc804\ub9dd. \uc810\ub3c4\ud45c\ub294 \uc131\uc7a5\u2193\u00b7\ubb3c\uac00\u2191, 2026 \uc778\ud558\uac00 2027\ub85c \ubc00\ub9b4 \uc218. \ucc44\uad8c\uae08\ub9ac\u00b7\ubcc0\ub3d9\uc131 \uc0c1\ubc29, \ud30c\uc0dd\uc740 \u2018\uace0\uae08\ub9ac \uc9c0\uc18d\u2019 \ubca0\ud305. &#8211; vtmarkets.com<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":103,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-41641","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/41641","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/103"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=41641"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/41641\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=41641"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=41641"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=41641"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}