{"id":41614,"date":"2026-03-18T15:44:02","date_gmt":"2026-03-18T15:44:02","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr\/uncategorized\/%ec%86%8c%ec%8b%9c%ec%97%90%ed%85%8c-%ec%a0%9c%eb%84%a4%eb%9e%84-%ec%97%b0%ec%a4%80%ec%9d%98-%ea%b8%b4%ec%b6%95%ec%a0%81-%ec%8b%a0%ed%98%b8%ec%99%80-sep%ec%9d%98-%eb%a7%a4%ed%8c%8c%ec%a0%81\/"},"modified":"2026-03-18T15:44:02","modified_gmt":"2026-03-18T15:44:02","slug":"%ec%86%8c%ec%8b%9c%ec%97%90%ed%85%8c-%ec%a0%9c%eb%84%a4%eb%9e%84-%ec%97%b0%ec%a4%80%ec%9d%98-%ea%b8%b4%ec%b6%95%ec%a0%81-%ec%8b%a0%ed%98%b8%ec%99%80-sep%ec%9d%98-%eb%a7%a4%ed%8c%8c%ec%a0%81","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/live-updates\/%ec%86%8c%ec%8b%9c%ec%97%90%ed%85%8c-%ec%a0%9c%eb%84%a4%eb%9e%84-%ec%97%b0%ec%a4%80%ec%9d%98-%ea%b8%b4%ec%b6%95%ec%a0%81-%ec%8b%a0%ed%98%b8%ec%99%80-sep%ec%9d%98-%eb%a7%a4%ed%8c%8c%ec%a0%81\/","title":{"rendered":"\uc18c\uc2dc\uc5d0\ud14c \uc81c\ub124\ub784 \u201c\uc5f0\uc900\uc758 \uae34\ucd95\uc801 \uc2e0\ud638\uc640 SEP\uc758 \ub9e4\ud30c\uc801 \ubcc0\ud654\ub85c \ub2ec\ub7ec, G10\u00b7\uc2e0\ud765\uad6d \ud1b5\ud654 \ub300\ube44 \uac15\uc138 \uac00\ub2a5\u201d"},"content":{"rendered":"\uc18c\uc2dc\uc5d0\ud14c \uc81c\ub124\ub784\uc740 \uc5f0\uc900(Federal Reserve, \ubbf8\uad6d \uc911\uc559\uc740\ud589)\uc774 **\uc57d\uac04 \uae34\ucd95\uc801(Restrictive)** \uc778 \ud0dc\ub3c4\ub97c \uc720\uc9c0\ud558\uace0, **\uacbd\uc81c\uc804\ub9dd\uc694\uc57d(SEP: Summary of Economic Projections, \uc5f0\uc900\uc774 \uc131\uc7a5\u00b7\ubb3c\uac00\u00b7\uc2e4\uc5c5\u00b7\uae08\ub9ac \uc804\ub9dd\uc744 \uc815\ub9ac\ud574 \uacf5\uac1c\ud558\ub294 \uc790\ub8cc)** \uc5d0\uc11c **\ub9e4\ud30c\uc801(Hawkish, \uae08\ub9ac\ub97c \ub354 \ub192\uac8c \uc720\uc9c0\ud558\uac70\ub098 \uc778\ud558\uc5d0 \uc2e0\uc911\ud55c \u2018\uae34\ucd95 \uc131\ud5a5\u2019)** \ubcc0\ud654\uac00 \ub098\uc62c \uac00\ub2a5\uc131\uc774 \uc788\uc5b4, \ubbf8 \ub2ec\ub7ec\uac00 **G10(\uc8fc\uc694 10\uac1c \uc120\uc9c4\uad6d \ud1b5\ud654 \ubb36\uc74c)** \uacfc **\uc2e0\ud765\uad6d(EM: Emerging Markets) \ud1b5\ud654** \ub300\ube44 \uc9c0\uc9c0(\uac15\uc138 \uc694\uc778)\ub97c \ubc1b\uc744 \uc218 \uc788\ub2e4\uace0 \ubcf8\ub2e4. \uc774 \uc740\ud589\uc740 \ud604\uc7ac \ubbf8\uad6d\uc758 **\uc815\ucc45\uae08\ub9ac \uc0c1\ub2e8(upper policy rate, \uae30\uc900\uae08\ub9ac \ubaa9\ud45c \ubc94\uc704\uc758 \uc717\uac12)** \uc744 3.75%\ub85c \uc81c\uc2dc\ud558\uba70, \ubbf8\uad6d\uc740 **\uc5d0\ub108\uc9c0 \uc218\ucd9c\uad6d** \uc774\ub77c\uc11c **\uc11d\uc720 \uacf5\uae09 \ucda9\uaca9(oil supply shock, \uacf5\uae09 \ucc28\uc9c8\ub85c \uc720\uac00\uac00 \uae09\ub4f1\ud558\ub294 \uc0c1\ud669)** \uc5d0 \ub35c \ub178\ucd9c\ub3fc \uc788\ub2e4\uace0 \ub367\ubd99\uc778\ub2e4.\n\n\uc740\ud589\uc740 \uc5f0\uc900\uc758 **\uc774\uc911 \ucc45\ubb34(dual mandate, \ubb3c\uac00 \uc548\uc815\uacfc \ucd5c\ub300 \uace0\uc6a9\uc774\ub77c\ub294 \ub450 \ubaa9\ud45c)** \ub54c\ubb38\uc5d0 \uad00\uc2ec\uc774 **\ubb3c\uac00(\uc778\ud50c\ub808\uc774\uc158)** \uc640 **\uace0\uc6a9** \uc5d0 \uc9d1\uc911\ub420 \uc218\ubc16\uc5d0 \uc5c6\ub2e4\uace0 \ub9d0\ud55c\ub2e4. \ub610\ud55c \uae30\ubcf8 \uc2dc\ub098\ub9ac\uc624\uc5d0\uc11c **2026\ub144 \uae08\ub9ac \uc810\ub3c4\ud45c(dot plot, FOMC \uc704\uc6d0\ub4e4\uc774 \uc0dd\uac01\ud558\ub294 \ud5a5\ud6c4 \uae08\ub9ac \uc218\uc900\uc744 \uc810\uc73c\ub85c \ud45c\uc2dc\ud55c \uac83)\uc758 \uc911\uc559\uac12(median)** \uc774 \uc5ec\uc804\ud788 **1\ud68c \uae08\ub9ac \uc778\ud558** \ub97c \uc2dc\uc0ac\ud55c\ub2e4\uace0 \ubcf8\ub2e4. \uc544\uc6b8\ub7ec **\uc720\uac00\uc758 4-\uc2dc\uadf8\ub9c8(4-sigma, \ud1b5\uacc4\uc801\uc73c\ub85c \ub9e4\uc6b0 \uc774\ub840\uc801\uc778 \u2018\uadf9\ub2e8\uc801 \ubcc0\ub3d9\u2019 \uc218\uc900)** \uae09\ub4f1\uc744 \uc5f0\uc900\uc774 \ud3c9\uac00\ud574\uc57c \ud560 \uc694\uc778\uc73c\ub85c \uc9c0\ubaa9\ud55c\ub2e4.\n\n

\uae34\ucd95\uc801 \uc5f0\uc900\uc774 \uc8fc\ub294 \ub2ec\ub7ec \uc9c0\uc9c0<\/h3>\n\ubcf4\uace0\uc11c\ub294 **\ubbf8\ub780(Miran)** \uacfc **\uc6d4\ub7ec(Waller)** \uac00 \ub2e4\uc2dc \ubc18\ub300 \uc758\uacac(dissent, \ub2e4\uc218 \uacb0\uc815\uacfc \ub2e4\ub978 \ud45c\uacb0) \uc744 \ub0b4\uace0 **\uae08\ub9ac \uc778\ud558** \ub97c \uc120\ud638\ud560 \uac00\ub2a5\uc131\uc774 \ud06c\ub2e4\uace0 \uc804\ud55c\ub2e4. \ub610\ud55c \ub450 \uc0ac\ub78c \uc911 \ub204\uad6c\ub4e0 **\ube44\ub458\uae30\ud30c\uc801(dovish, \uae08\ub9ac \uc778\ud558\uc5d0 \ub354 \uc6b0\ud638\uc801\uc778 \u2018\uc644\ud654 \uc131\ud5a5\u2019)** \uc785\uc7a5\uc744 \uac70\ub450\uba74 \ub2ec\ub7ec\uac00 \ubc18\uc751\ud560 \uc218 \uc788\ub2e4\uace0 \ub9d0\ud55c\ub2e4. \ud30c\uc6d4 \uc758\uc7a5\uc758 \uae30\uc790\ud68c\uacac\uc740 \uc774\uc804 \uba54\uc2dc\uc9c0\uc640 \ud06c\uac8c \ub2e4\ub974\uc9c0 \uc54a\uc744 \uac83\uc73c\ub85c \uc608\uc0c1\ud558\uba70, \ud604\uc7ac \uc815\ucc45\uc774 \uc801\uc808\ud558\ub2e4\ub294 \uc778\uc2dd\uc774 \uc720\uc9c0\ub418\uace0, \ud5a5\ud6c4 \uc778\ud558\ub294 **\ub178\ub3d9\uc2dc\uc7a5 \uc57d\ud654\uac00 \ub354 \ud655\uc778\ub420 \ub54c** \uacb0\uc815\ub420 \uc218 \uc788\ub2e4\uace0 \ubcf8\ub2e4.\n\n\ub610\ud55c \u201c**\uc678\ubd80 \uc704\ud5d8(outside risk, \uae30\ubcf8 \uc804\ub9dd \ubc16\uc5d0\uc11c \ubc1c\uc0dd\ud560 \uc218 \uc788\ub294 \ucd94\uac00 \uc704\ud5d8)**\u201d\uc73c\ub85c, **2026\ub144 PCE \ubb3c\uac00 \uc608\uc0c1\uce58(PCE inflation forecast, \uac1c\uc778\uc18c\ube44\uc9c0\ucd9c \ubb3c\uac00 \uc804\ub9dd\uce58)** \uac00 2.4%\uc5d0\uc11c \uc0c1\ud5a5 \uc870\uc815\ub420 \uc218 \uc788\ub2e4\uace0 \uc9c0\uc801\ud55c\ub2e4. \uadf8\ub807\uac8c \ub418\uba74 FOMC\uac00 **\uc608\uc0c1\ub41c 1\ud68c \uc778\ud558** \ub97c \uc9c0\uc6b8 \uc218 \uc788\ub2e4\uace0 \ub9d0\ud55c\ub2e4. \uc774\ub294 **USD\/G10(\ub2ec\ub7ec \ub300\ube44 G10 \ud1b5\ud654 \ud658\uc728)** \uacfc **USD\/EM(\ub2ec\ub7ec \ub300\ube44 \uc2e0\ud765\uad6d \ud1b5\ud654 \ud658\uc728)** \uc744 \ub04c\uc5b4\uc62c\ub9ac\uace0, \ubbf8 \uad6d\ucc44 \uc218\uc775\ub960 \uace1\uc120(Treasury curve, \ub9cc\uae30\ubcc4 \uad6d\ucc44 \uae08\ub9ac\uc758 \ud750\ub984)\uc744 **\ubd88 \ud50c\ub798\ud2b8\ub2dd(bull flattening, \uae08\ub9ac\uac00 \uc804\ubc18\uc801\uc73c\ub85c \ub0b4\ub824\uac00\uba70 \uc7a5\ub2e8\uae30 \uae08\ub9ac\ucc28\uac00 \uc904\uc5b4\ub4dc\ub294 \ud750\ub984)** \uc5d0\uc11c **\ubca0\uc5b4 \ud50c\ub798\ud2b8\ub2dd(bear flattening, \ub2e8\uae30 \uae08\ub9ac\uac00 \ub354 \ube68\ub9ac \uc62c\ub77c \uc7a5\ub2e8\uae30 \uae08\ub9ac\ucc28\uac00 \uc904\uc5b4\ub4dc\ub294 \ud750\ub984)** \uc73c\ub85c \ubc14\uafc0 \uc218 \uc788\ub2e4\uace0 \ub367\ubd99\uc778\ub2e4.\n\n\ub610\ud55c **\uc580 \ud750\ub8ec(Jan Groen)** \uc774 \ub354 \ub192\uc740 \ubb3c\uac00 \uacbd\ub85c(\uc778\ud50c\ub808\uc774\uc158 \uc804\ub9dd) \ub54c\ubb38\uc5d0 **2026\ub144 \uc778\ud558 \uc5c6\uc74c** \uacfc **2027\ub144 2\ud68c \uc778\ud558** \ub85c \uc804\ub9dd\uc744 \uc218\uc815\ud588\ub2e4\uace0 \uc804\ud55c\ub2e4.\n\n

\uc810\ub3c4\ud45c \uc704\ud5d8\uacfc \uace1\uc120(\ucee4\ube0c) \uc601\ud5a5<\/h3>\n\ub2e4\uac00\uc624\ub294 **\uc5f0\ubc29\uacf5\uac1c\uc2dc\uc7a5\uc704\uc6d0\ud68c(FOMC: Federal Open Market Committee, \uc5f0\uc900\uc758 \uae08\ub9ac \uacb0\uc815 \ud68c\uc758)** \uc758 \ud575\uc2ec\uc740 **\uc810\ub3c4\ud45c** \uc640 **2026\ub144 \ubb3c\uac00 \uc804\ub9dd** \uc774 \ub420 \uac83\uc774\ub2e4. 2025\ub144 \uc778\ud558\ub97c \ub0b4\ub0b4 \uae30\ub300\ud588\uc9c0\ub9cc \uc2e4\uc81c\ub85c\ub294 \uc5c6\uc5c8\ub358 \ub4a4, \uc62c\ud574 \uc608\uc815\ub41c **\ub2e8 1\ud68c\uc758 \uc778\ud558** \uac00 \uc0ad\uc81c\ub420 \uc704\ud5d8\uc774 \uc788\ub2e4\uace0 \ubcf8\ub2e4. \uc774\ub294 \uc2dc\uc7a5\uc774 \ubc1b\uc544\ub4e4\uc5ec\uc57c \ud560 **\ub9e4\ud30c\uc801 \uc2e0\ud638** \uac00 \ub420 \uc218 \uc788\ub2e4.\n\n\uc774 \uc704\ud5d8\uc740 \ubb3c\uac00\uac00 \ubaa9\ud45c\ubcf4\ub2e4 \uacc4\uc18d \ub192\uc740 \ub370\uc11c \ucee4\uc9c4\ub2e4. \ucd5c\uc2e0 **\uadfc\uc6d0 PCE(Core PCE, \ubcc0\ub3d9\uc774 \ud070 \uc2dd\ud488\u00b7\uc5d0\ub108\uc9c0\ub97c \ube80 PCE \ubb3c\uac00)** \uac00 2\uc6d4 \uae30\uc900 2.9%\ub85c \uc9c0\uc18d\ub418\uace0 \uc788\uae30 \ub54c\ubb38\uc774\ub2e4. \ub3d9\uc2dc\uc5d0 **WTI(\uc11c\ubd80\ud14d\uc0ac\uc2a4\uc0b0 \uc6d0\uc720, \ubbf8\uad6d \uae30\uc900 \uc720\uc885) \uac00\uaca9** \uc774 \ubc30\ub7f4\ub2f9 95\ub2ec\ub7ec\ub97c \ub118\ub294 \ucd5c\uadfc \uae09\ub4f1\ub3c4 \ubb3c\uac00 \uc804\ub9dd\uc744 \ub354 \uc5b4\ub835\uac8c \ub9cc\ub4e0\ub2e4. \uc5f0\uc900\uc758 \ubb3c\uac00 \uc804\ub9dd \uc0c1\ud5a5\uc774 \u201c\uc608\uc815\ub41c \uc778\ud558\u201d \uc0ad\uc81c\uc758 \uadfc\uac70\uac00 \ub420 \uc218 \uc788\ub2e4\ub294 \uc124\uba85\uc774\ub2e4.\n\n\ub2e4\ub9cc \uc5f0\uc900\uc740 **\uc644\uc804\uace0\uc6a9(\ucd5c\ub300 \uace0\uc6a9) \ubaa9\ud45c** \ub3c4 \ud568\uaed8 \uace0\ub824\ud574\uc57c \ud55c\ub2e4. 2\uc6d4 \uace0\uc6a9\ubcf4\uace0\uc11c\ub294 \uc608\uc0c1\ubcf4\ub2e4 \uc57d\ud574 \uc2e0\uaddc \uace0\uc6a9\uc774 9\ub9cc5\ucc9c \uba85\uc5d0 \uadf8\ucce4\uace0, \uc2e4\uc5c5\ub960\uc740 4.2%\ub85c \uc62c\ub790\ub2e4. \uc774\ub294 \ube44\ub458\uae30\ud30c \uc704\uc6d0\ub4e4\uc5d0\uac8c \ub9e4\ud30c\uc801 \uc870\uce58\ub97c \ubbf8\ub8e8\uc790\ub294 \uac15\ud55c \uadfc\uac70\uac00 \ub41c\ub2e4. \ubaa9\ud45c\ub97c \uc6c3\ub3c4\ub294 \ubb3c\uac00\uc640 \ub454\ud654\ub418\ub294 \ub178\ub3d9\uc2dc\uc7a5 \uc0ac\uc774\uc758 \uae34\uc7a5\uc774 \ud575\uc2ec \ubd88\ud655\uc2e4\uc131\uc744 \ub9cc\ub4e0\ub2e4.\n\n**\ud30c\uc0dd\uc0c1\ud488(derivatives, \uae30\ucd08\uc790\uc0b0 \uac00\uaca9\uc5d0 \ub530\ub77c \uac00\uce58\uac00 \uc6c0\uc9c1\uc774\ub294 \uae08\uc735\uc0c1\ud488)** \uac70\ub798\uc790 \uad00\uc810\uc5d0\uc11c\ub294, \uc720\ub85c(Euro)\ub098 \uc5d4(Yen) \ub300\ube44 **\ubbf8 \ub2ec\ub7ec \ucf5c\uc635\uc158(call option, \ub9cc\uae30\uae4c\uc9c0 \uc815\ud574\uc9c4 \uac00\uaca9\uc73c\ub85c \u2018\uc0b4 \uc218 \uc788\ub294 \uad8c\ub9ac\u2019)** \uc744 \ub9e4\uc218\ud558\ub294 \uc804\ub7b5\uc774 \ud0c0\ub2f9\ud558\ub2e4\uace0 \ubcf8\ub2e4. \uc774\ub294 \uc5f0\uc900\uc774 2026\ub144 \uc778\ud558\ub97c \uc5c6\uc560\ub294 **\ub9e4\ud30c\uc801 \uae5c\uc9dd \ubcc0\ud654** \uac00 \ub098\uc62c \ub54c \uc774\uc775\uc744 \ub178\ub9ac\ub418, **\uc190\uc2e4 \ud55c\ub3c4\ub97c \uc815\ud574(defined-risk, \uc635\uc158 \ud504\ub9ac\ubbf8\uc5c4 \ub4f1\uc73c\ub85c \ucd5c\ub300 \uc190\uc2e4\uc774 \uc81c\ud55c\ub418\ub294 \uad6c\uc870)** \ub300\uc751\ud560 \uc218 \uc788\ub294 \ubc29\ubc95\uc774\ub2e4. \uc989 \ub2ec\ub7ec \uac15\uc138 \uc2dc \uc0c1\uc2b9 \uc5ec\uc9c0\uac00 \uc788\uace0, \uc5f0\uc900\uc774 \uae30\uc874 \uc548\ub0b4\ub97c \uc720\uc9c0\ud558\ub354\ub77c\ub3c4 \uc190\uc2e4\uc740 \uc81c\ud55c\ub41c\ub2e4.\n\n\uc774\ub7f0 \uc815\ucc45 \ubcc0\ud654\ub294 \ubbf8 \uad6d\ucc44 \uc218\uc775\ub960 \uace1\uc120\ub3c4 \ubc14\uafc0 \uc218 \uc788\uc73c\uba70, \ub2e8\uae30 \uae08\ub9ac\uac00 \uc7a5\uae30 \uae08\ub9ac\ubcf4\ub2e4 \ub354 \ube68\ub9ac \uc624\ub974\ub294 **\ubca0\uc5b4 \ud50c\ub798\ud2b8\ub2dd** \uac00\ub2a5\uc131\uc774 \ud06c\ub2e4. \uc774\uc5d0 \ub530\ub77c **\uae08\ub9ac \uc120\ubb3c(interest rate futures, \uae08\ub9ac \uc218\uc900\uc5d0 \uc5f0\ub3d9\ub418\ub294 \uc120\ubb3c \uacc4\uc57d)** \uc5d0\uc11c **2\ub144\ubb3c\uacfc 10\ub144\ubb3c \uae08\ub9ac\ucc28(\uc2a4\ud504\ub808\ub4dc, \ub450 \uae08\ub9ac\uc758 \ucc28\uc774)** \ucd95\uc18c\ub85c \uc774\uc775\uc744 \ubcf4\ub294 \ud3ec\uc9c0\uc158\uc744 \uace0\ub824\ud558\uace0 \uc788\ub2e4\uace0 \ub9d0\ud55c\ub2e4.\n\n\n

VT Markets \ub77c\uc774\ube0c \uacc4\uc815\uc744 \ub9cc\ub4e4\uace0 \uc9c0\uae08 \ubc14\ub85c \uac70\ub798<\/a>\ub97c \uc2dc\uc791\ud558\uc138\uc694.<\/b><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

\uc5f0\uc900\uc758 \u2018\uc644\ub9cc\ud55c \uae34\ucd95\u2019 \uc720\uc9c0\uc640 SEP\uc758 \ub9e4\ud30c\uc801 \uc218\uc815 \uac00\ub2a5\uc131\uc774 \ub2ec\ub7ec \uac15\uc138\ub97c \uc9c0\uc9c0\ud55c\ub2e4. 2026\ub144 \uc810\ub3c4\ud45c\uc758 \ub2e8\uc77c \uc778\ud558 \uc0ad\uc81c, \uc720\uac00 \uae09\ub4f1, \uc778\ud50c\ub808 \uc0c1\ud5a5 \uc2dc \ub2ec\ub7ec\u00b7\uae08\ub9ac\uace1\uc120(\ubca0\uc5b4 \ud50c\ub798\ud2b8\ub2dd) \ubcc0\ub3d9 \ud655\ub300. – vtmarkets.com<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":103,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-41614","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/41614","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/103"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=41614"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/41614\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=41614"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=41614"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=41614"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}