{"id":41587,"date":"2026-03-18T12:42:38","date_gmt":"2026-03-18T12:42:38","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr\/uncategorized\/%ec%bd%94%eb%a9%94%eb%a5%b4%ec%b8%a0%eb%b0%a9%ed%81%ac%ec%9d%98-%ed%94%bc%ec%8a%a4%ed%84%b0-%ec%9c%a0%eb%a1%9c-%eb%8b%ac%eb%9f%ac-%ec%98%b5%ec%85%98-%ec%a0%84%ec%9f%81-%ec%a0%84-%ed%8c%a8\/"},"modified":"2026-03-18T12:42:38","modified_gmt":"2026-03-18T12:42:38","slug":"%ec%bd%94%eb%a9%94%eb%a5%b4%ec%b8%a0%eb%b0%a9%ed%81%ac%ec%9d%98-%ed%94%bc%ec%8a%a4%ed%84%b0-%ec%9c%a0%eb%a1%9c-%eb%8b%ac%eb%9f%ac-%ec%98%b5%ec%85%98-%ec%a0%84%ec%9f%81-%ec%a0%84-%ed%8c%a8","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/live-updates\/%ec%bd%94%eb%a9%94%eb%a5%b4%ec%b8%a0%eb%b0%a9%ed%81%ac%ec%9d%98-%ed%94%bc%ec%8a%a4%ed%84%b0-%ec%9c%a0%eb%a1%9c-%eb%8b%ac%eb%9f%ac-%ec%98%b5%ec%85%98-%ec%a0%84%ec%9f%81-%ec%a0%84-%ed%8c%a8\/","title":{"rendered":"\ucf54\uba54\ub974\uce20\ubc29\ud06c\uc758 \ud53c\uc2a4\ud130 \u201c\uc720\ub85c\/\ub2ec\ub7ec \uc635\uc158, \uc804\uc7c1 \uc804 \ud328\ud134\uc73c\ub85c \ubcf5\uadc0\u2026\ubcc0\ub3d9\uc131\uacfc \ub9ac\uc2a4\ud06c\ub9ac\ubc84\uc124 \uc5ed\ud559 \uc7ac\uc870\uc815\u201d"},"content":{"rendered":"\ucf54\uba54\ub974\uce20\ubc29\ud06c(Commerzbank)\uc758 \ub9c8\uc774\ud074 \ud53c\uc2a4\ud130(Michael Pfister)\ub294 EUR\/USD(\uc720\ub85c\/\ub2ec\ub7ec) \uc635\uc158 \uc2dc\uc7a5\uc744 \uc810\uac80\ud558\uba70, **\ub0b4\uc7ac\ubcc0\ub3d9\uc131(implied volatility\u00b7\uc635\uc158 \uac00\uaca9\uc5d0 \ubc18\uc601\ub41c \ud5a5\ud6c4 \ubcc0\ub3d9\uc131 \uae30\ub300\uce58)**\uacfc **\ub9ac\uc2a4\ud06c \ub9ac\ubc84\uc124(risk reversals\u00b7\uac19\uc740 \ub9cc\uae30\uc5d0\uc11c \ucf5c\u00b7\ud48b \uac04 \uac00\uaca9 \ucc28\uc774\ub85c \uce21\uc815\ud558\ub294 \ubc29\ud5a5\uc131\/\ud5e4\uc9c0 \uc218\uc694 \uc9c0\ud45c)**\uc758 \uc5f0\ub3d9\uc774 \u2018\ub9ac\ubc84\ub808\uc774\uc158 \ub370\uc774(Liberation Day)\u2019 \uc774\uc804\uc5d0 \ubcf4\uc774\ub358 \ud328\ud134\uc73c\ub85c \ub418\ub3cc\uc544\uac00\uace0 \uc788\ub2e4\uace0 \ubc1d\ud614\ub2e4. \uadf8\ub294 4\uc6d4\uc5d0 \ub098\ud0c0\ub0ac\ub358 \ubcc0\ud654\uac00 EUR\/USD\ub9cc\uc758 \ud604\uc0c1\uc774 \uc544\ub2c8\uc5c8\uc9c0\ub9cc, \ub2e4\ub978 \ud1b5\ud654\uc30d\uc5d0\uc11c\ub294 \uc9c0\uc18d \uae30\uac04\uc774 \ub354 \uc9e7\uc558\ub2e4\uace0 \ub367\ubd99\uc600\ub2e4.\n\n\uadf8\ub294 \uc774\uc804 \uad6d\uba74\uc5d0\uc11c\ub294 \ub0b4\uc7ac\ubcc0\ub3d9\uc131\uc774 \uc624\ub97c\uc218\ub85d **\ub2ec\ub7ec \uac15\uc138\uc5d0 \ub300\ube44\ud55c \ubcf4\ud638 \uc218\uc694(\ud5e4\uc9c0 \uc218\uc694)**\uac00 \ucee4\uc9c0\ub294 \uacbd\uc6b0\uac00 \ub9ce\uc558\ub2e4\uace0 \uc124\uba85\ud588\ub2e4. \uc774\ub294 **EUR-USD \ub9ac\uc2a4\ud06c \ub9ac\ubc84\uc124\uc774 \ub354 \ub9c8\uc774\ub108\uc2a4(\uc74c\uc758 \uac12)\ub85c \ub0b4\ub824\uac00\ub294 \ud604\uc0c1**\uc73c\ub85c \ub098\ud0c0\ub0ac\ub2e4\ub294 \uac83\uc774\ub2e4.\n\n<h3>Implied Volatility And Risk Reversals<\/h3>\n\uc774\ub780 \ubd84\uc7c1 \uc774\ud6c4\uc5d0\ub294 EUR\/USD\uc5d0\uc11c \uc774\ub7f0 \uad00\uacc4\uac00 \uc57d\ud574\uc84c\ub2e4\uace0 \uadf8\ub294 \ub9d0\ud588\ub2e4. \uadf8\ub294 \uc774\ub97c **\uc720\ub85c \uc57d\uc138(\ub2ec\ub7ec \uac15\uc138)\ub97c \ub4b7\ubc1b\uce68\ud558\ub294 \uc694\uc778**\ub4e4\uc774 \ucee4\uc9c0\uba74\uc11c, **\ub2ec\ub7ec \uac15\uc138\uc5d0 \ub300\ube44\ud558\ub294 \ud5e4\uc9c0 \uc218\uc694**\uac00 \ub298 \uc218 \uc788\uae30 \ub54c\ubb38\uc774\ub77c\uace0 \ud574\uc11d\ud588\ub2e4.\n\n\ub610 \uc2dc\uc7a5\uc740 \ub2ec\ub7ec\uac00 \ub2e4\uc2dc **\uc548\uc804\uc790\uc0b0(safe-haven\u00b7\ubd88\ud655\uc2e4\uc131\uc774 \ucee4\uc9c8 \ub54c \uc120\ud638\ub418\ub294 \uc790\uc0b0) \uc131\uaca9**\uc744 \uc720\uc9c0\ud558\ub294 \uc7a5\uae30 \uade0\ud615\uc73c\ub85c \ub3cc\uc544\uac08 \uc218 \uc788\ub2e4\uace0 \ud588\ub2e4. \uadf8\ub294 \uc774\ub7f0 \ud589\ub3d9 \uc591\uc2dd\uc774 \uc7a5\uae30\uc801\uc73c\ub85c \ubc14\ub00c\ub824\uba74 \ubcf4\ud1b5 **\ucda9\uaca9(\ubd88\ud655\uc2e4\uc131 \uc774\ubca4\ud2b8)**\uc774 \ubc18\ubcf5\uc801\uc73c\ub85c \ubc1c\uc0dd\ud574\uc57c \ud55c\ub2e4\uace0 \uc8fc\uc7a5\ud588\ub2e4.\n\n\uc2dc\uc7a5\uc5d0\uc11c\ub294 \ubd88\ud655\uc2e4\uc131 \uad6d\uba74\uc5d0\uc11c \ub2ec\ub7ec\uac00 \uac15\uc138\ub97c \ubcf4\uc774\ub294 \uc775\uc219\ud55c \ud328\ud134\uc73c\ub85c \ub418\ub3cc\uc544\uac00\ub294 \ubaa8\uc2b5\uc774 \uad00\ucc30\ub41c\ub2e4. \uc774\ub780 \ubd84\uc7c1 \uc774\ud6c4 EUR\/USD\uc758 \ub0b4\uc7ac\ubcc0\ub3d9\uc131\uc774 \ub2e4\uc2dc \ub192\uc544\uc9c0\uba74\uc11c, **\uc720\ub85c \ud558\ub77d\uc5d0 \ub300\ube44\ud55c \ud5e4\uc9c0 \uc218\uc694**\uc640 \uc7ac\ucc28 \ub9de\ubb3c\ub9ac\uace0 \uc788\ub2e4. 2025\ub144\uc5d0 \uc7a0\uc2dc \ud754\ub4e4\ub838\ub358 \uc7a5\uae30 \uc5ed\ud559\uad00\uacc4\uac00 \ubcf5\uc6d0\ub418\ub294 \ud750\ub984\uc774\ub77c\ub294 \ud3c9\uac00\ub2e4.\n\n\uc774\ub7ec\ud55c \uc720\ub85c \uc57d\uc138 \ucabd\uc73c\ub85c\uc758 \ubcc0\ud654\uc5d0\ub294 \uae30\ucd08 \uc5ec\uac74(\ud380\ub354\uba58\ud138) \uce21\uba74\uc758 \uadfc\uac70\ub3c4 \uc788\ub2e4\ub294 \uc124\uba85\uc774\ub2e4. \uc774\ub2ec \ubc1c\ud45c\ub41c \ub3c5\uc77c IFO \uacbd\uae30\uae30\ud6c4\uc9c0\uc218\ub294 \uc608\uc0c1\uacfc \ub2ec\ub9ac 89.5\ub85c \ud558\ub77d\ud588\uace0, \uc720\ub85c\uc874 2026\ub144 1\ubd84\uae30 \uc131\uc7a5\ub960 \uc804\ub9dd\ub3c4 0.1%\ub85c \ud558\ud5a5 \uc870\uc815\ub410\ub2e4. \uc720\ub7fd \uacbd\uae30 \ub454\ud654\ub294 \uc720\ub85c \ubcf4\uc720 \ub9e4\ub825\uc744 \ub0ae\ucd98\ub2e4\ub294 \ubd84\uc11d\uc774\ub2e4.\n\n<h3>Options Market Implications<\/h3>\n\ubc18\uba74 \ubbf8\uad6d \uacbd\uc81c\ub294 \uc0c1\ub300\uc801\uc73c\ub85c \uacac\uc870\ud55c \ud750\ub984\uc744 \ubcf4\uc774\uba70 \ub2ec\ub7ec \ub9e4\ub825\uc744 \ub192\uc774\uace0 \uc788\ub2e4. 2026\ub144 2\uc6d4 \ubbf8\uad6d \ubb3c\uac00 \ubcf4\uace0\uc11c\ub294 3.3%\ub85c \ub0b4\ub824\uac00\uc9c0 \uc54a\uace0 \ubc84\ud2f0\ub294 \ubaa8\uc2b5\uc774\uc5c8\uace0, \uc774\uc5d0 \ub530\ub77c \uc5f0\uc900(Federal Reserve\u00b7\ubbf8 \uc911\uc559\uc740\ud589)\uc758 \ub2e8\uae30 \uae08\ub9ac \uc778\ud558 \uae30\ub300\uac00 \uc57d\ud574\uc9c0\uba74\uc11c \ubbf8\uad6d \uae08\ub9ac(\uc218\uc775\ub960) \uc0c1\ubc29 \uc694\uc778\uc774 \ub410\ub2e4. \ubbf8\uad6d\uacfc \uc720\ub85c\uc874\uc758 \uacbd\uae30 \uc804\ub9dd \ucc28\uc774\ub294 \ud658\uc728\uc5d0 \uac15\ud55c \ub3d9\uc778\uc774\ub77c\ub294 \ud574\uc11d\uc774\ub2e4.\n\n\uc635\uc158 \uc2dc\uc7a5\uc5d0\uc11c\ub3c4 \uc774\ub7f0 \uc2ec\ub9ac\uac00 \ud655\uc778\ub41c\ub2e4. EUR\/USD **1\uac1c\uc6d4 \ub9ac\uc2a4\ud06c \ub9ac\ubc84\uc124**\uc774 \ub354 \uae4a\uc740 \ub9c8\uc774\ub108\uc2a4\ub85c \ub0b4\ub824\uac00 \ucd5c\uadfc -0.60\uc744 \uae30\ub85d\ud588\ub294\ub370, \uc774\ub294 **\uc720\ub85c \ud558\ub77d\uc744 \ubc29\uc5b4\ud558\ub294 \ud48b\uc635\uc158(put\u00b7\uc815\ud574\uc9c4 \uac00\uaca9\uc5d0 \ud314 \uad8c\ub9ac)**\uc774 **\ucf5c\uc635\uc158(call\u00b7\uc815\ud574\uc9c4 \uac00\uaca9\uc5d0 \uc0b4 \uad8c\ub9ac)**\ubcf4\ub2e4 \ud6e8\uc52c \ube44\uc2f8\uc84c\ub2e4\ub294 \ub73b\uc774\ub2e4. \uc774\ub7f0 \uad00\uacc4\ub294 2025\ub144 4\uc6d4 \ubcc0\ud654\uac00 \uc2dc\uc791\ub41c \ub4a4\uc5d0\ub3c4 \uac15\ud654\ub41c \ubc14 \uc788\ub2e4.\n\n\uc55e\uc73c\ub85c \uba87 \uc8fc \ub3d9\uc548\uc740 \ub2ec\ub7ec \uac15\uc138\uac00 \uc774\uc5b4\uc9c0\uac70\ub098 \uc7ac\uac1c\ub420 \uac00\ub2a5\uc131\uc5d0 \ub300\ube44\ud558\ub294 \ud3ec\uc9c0\uc154\ub2dd\uc774 \ud569\ub9ac\uc801\uc774\ub77c\ub294 \uc758\ubbf8\ub2e4. **\ub2ec\ub7ec \uac15\uc138\uc5d0 \ub300\ube44\ud55c \ud5e4\uc9c0**\ub294 \ub354 \uc774\uc0c1 \uc18c\uc218 \uc758\uacac\uc774 \uc544\ub2c8\ub77c, \uc2dc\uc7a5\uc774 \ub418\ucc3e\uc740 \uade0\ud615\uacfc \ub9de\ub2ff\uc544 \uc788\ub2e4\ub294 \uc810\uc744 \ud2b8\ub808\uc774\ub354\ub4e4\uc774 \uace0\ub824\ud560 \ud544\uc694\uac00 \uc788\ub2e4. \ub530\ub77c\uc11c EUR\/USD \ud558\ub77d\uc5d0 \uc720\ub9ac\ud55c \uc804\ub7b5, \uc608\ub97c \ub4e4\uc5b4 **\ud48b \ub9e4\uc218** \ub610\ub294 **\ud48b \uc2a4\ud504\ub808\ub4dc(put spread\u00b7\uc11c\ub85c \ub2e4\ub978 \ud589\uc0ac\uac00\uc758 \ud48b\uc744 \ud568\uaed8 \ub9e4\uc218\u00b7\ub9e4\ub3c4\ud574 \ube44\uc6a9\uacfc \uc190\uc775\uc744 \uc870\uc808\ud558\ub294 \uc804\ub7b5)**\ub294 \ud604\uc7ac \uc635\uc158 \uac00\uaca9\uacfc \uac70\uc2dc \ud658\uacbd\uc5d0 \ub354 \ubd80\ud569\ud55c\ub2e4.\n<p>\n\n<p><strong>\uc9c0\uae08 \ubc14\ub85c \uac70\ub798\ub97c \uc2dc\uc791\ud558\uc138\uc694 &#8211; VT Markets \uc2e4\uacc4\uc88c\ub97c \uac1c\uc124\ud558\ub824\uba74 <a href=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr\/trade-now\/\">\uc5ec\uae30<\/a>\ub97c \ud074\ub9ad\ud558\uc138\uc694 <\/strong> <\/p>\n<!-- \/wp:post-content -->","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>\u201c\ub2ec\ub7ec \uc548\uc804\uc790\uc0b0 \uadc0\ud658?\u201d EUR\/USD \uc635\uc158\uc11c \ub0b4\uc7ac\ubcc0\ub3d9\uc131 \uc0c1\uc2b9\uacfc \ub9ac\uc2a4\ud06c\ub9ac\ubc84\uc124 \uc74c(-)\ud655\ub300 \uc7ac\uc5f0. \uc720\ub7fd \uacbd\uae30\ub454\ud654\u00b7\ubbf8\uad6d \ubb3c\uac00 \ubc84\ud300\uc5d0 \uc720\ub85c \uc57d\uc138 \ud5e4\uc9c0 \ud655\ub300, 1\uac1c\uc6d4 RR -0.60. \ud48b \uc804\ub7b5 \ubd80\uac01.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-41587","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/41587","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=41587"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/41587\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=41587"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=41587"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=41587"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}