{"id":41570,"date":"2026-03-18T09:44:36","date_gmt":"2026-03-18T09:44:36","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr\/uncategorized\/mufg%ec%9d%98-%eb%a7%88%ec%9d%b4%ed%81%b4-%ec%99%84%ec%9d%80-rba%ec%9d%98-25bp-%ea%b8%88%eb%a6%ac-%ec%9d%b8%ec%83%81%ec%9d%b4-%ea%b8%80%eb%a1%9c%eb%b2%8c-%eb%b0%8f-%ec%95%84%ec%8b%9c%ec%95%84\/"},"modified":"2026-03-18T09:44:36","modified_gmt":"2026-03-18T09:44:36","slug":"mufg%ec%9d%98-%eb%a7%88%ec%9d%b4%ed%81%b4-%ec%99%84%ec%9d%80-rba%ec%9d%98-25bp-%ea%b8%88%eb%a6%ac-%ec%9d%b8%ec%83%81%ec%9d%b4-%ea%b8%80%eb%a1%9c%eb%b2%8c-%eb%b0%8f-%ec%95%84%ec%8b%9c%ec%95%84","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/live-updates\/mufg%ec%9d%98-%eb%a7%88%ec%9d%b4%ed%81%b4-%ec%99%84%ec%9d%80-rba%ec%9d%98-25bp-%ea%b8%88%eb%a6%ac-%ec%9d%b8%ec%83%81%ec%9d%b4-%ea%b8%80%eb%a1%9c%eb%b2%8c-%eb%b0%8f-%ec%95%84%ec%8b%9c%ec%95%84\/","title":{"rendered":"MUFG\uc758 \ub9c8\uc774\ud074 \uc644\uc740 RBA\uc758 25bp \uae08\ub9ac \uc778\uc0c1\uc774 \uae00\ub85c\ubc8c \ubc0f \uc544\uc2dc\uc544 \uae08\ub9ac \uc7ac\uc870\uc815 \uc18d\uc5d0\uc11c \uad6d\ub0b4 \uc778\ud50c\ub808\uc774\uc158\uc744 \ubc18\uc601\ud55c\ub2e4\uace0 \ub9d0\ud55c\ub2e4"},"content":{"rendered":"\uc774\ub780 \uc804\uc7c1 \uc774\ud6c4 \uae00\ub85c\ubc8c \ubc0f \uc544\uc2dc\uc544 \uae08\ub9ac \uc2dc\uc7a5\uc740 **\uac00\uaca9\uc744 \ub2e4\uc2dc \ub9e4\uae30\uae30(\uc7ac\uac00\uaca9\ud654: \uc2dc\uc7a5\uc774 \uae08\ub9ac \uc804\ub9dd\uc744 \uc0c8 \uc815\ubcf4\uc5d0 \ub9de\ucdb0 \ube60\ub974\uac8c \uc218\uc815\ud558\uba70 \ucc44\uad8c\u00b7\uae08\ub9ac \uc0c1\ud488 \uac00\uaca9\uc774 \ubcc0\ud558\ub294 \ud604\uc0c1)** \ud588\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4. \uc774 \uc7ac\uac00\uaca9\ud654\ub294 \uc5ec\ub7ec \uc911\uc559\uc740\ud589\uc5d0 \ub300\ud55c \uae30\ub300\uc5d0 \uc601\ud5a5\uc744 \uc8fc\uc5c8\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4.\n\n\ud638\uc8fc\uc911\uc559\uc740\ud589(RBA\u00b7Reserve Bank of Australia)\uc740 **\uc815\ucc45\uae08\ub9ac(\uc911\uc559\uc740\ud589\uc774 \uc815\ud558\ub294 \uae30\uc900\uc774 \ub418\ub294 \uae08\ub9ac)** \ub97c **25bp(\ubca0\uc774\uc2dc\uc2a4\ud3ec\uc778\ud2b8: 1bp=0.01%p\uc774\ubbc0\ub85c 25bp=0.25%p)** \uc62c\ub838\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4. \uc774 \uacb0\uc815\uc740 **\uc778\ud50c\ub808\uc774\uc158(\ubb3c\uac00\uac00 \uc804\ubc18\uc801\uc73c\ub85c \uc624\ub974\ub294 \ud604\uc0c1)** \uc218\uc900\uacfc \uad6d\ub0b4 \uacbd\uc81c \uc5ec\uac74\uc774 \uc815\ucc45 \uacb0\uc815\uc744 \uc88c\uc6b0\ud55c\ub2e4\ub294 \uc810\uc744 \ubcf4\uc5ec\uc90d\ub2c8\ub2e4.\n\n\uc2dc\uc7a5\uc740 \ucc98\uc74c\uc5d0 \uc774\ubc88 \uacb0\uc815\uc744 **5\ub300 4\ub85c \uc778\uc0c1 \ucc2c\uc131**\uc5d0 \uac00\uae4c\uc6b4 \ud45c\uacb0\ub85c \ud574\uc11d\ud588\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4. \uc774\ud6c4 \ubd88\ub85d(RBA) \ucd1d\uc7ac\uc758 \ubc1c\uc5b8\uc740 **\ub9e4\ud30c\uc801(hawkish: \ubb3c\uac00\ub97c \uc7a1\uae30 \uc704\ud574 \uae08\ub9ac\ub97c \ub354 \uc62c\ub9ac\uac70\ub098 \ub192\uc740 \uae08\ub9ac\ub97c \uc624\ub798 \uc720\uc9c0\ud558\ub824\ub294 \uc131\ud5a5)** \uc73c\ub85c \ubc1b\uc544\ub4e4\uc5ec\uc84c\uace0, \ub17c\uc758\uc758 \ucd08\uc810\uc774 \u201c\uc62c\ub9b4\uc9c0 \ub9d0\uc9c0\u201d\uac00 \uc544\ub2c8\ub77c \u201c\uc5b8\uc81c \uc62c\ub9b4\uc9c0\u201d\uc600\ub2e4\ub294 \ub73b\uc73c\ub85c \ud574\uc11d\ub410\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4.\n\n\uc624\ub298\ub0a0 \uc774 \uad50\ud6c8\uc740 \ub354\uc6b1 \uc911\uc694\ud569\ub2c8\ub2e4. \ud638\uc8fc\uc758 2026\ub144 2\uc6d4 **\uc6d4\uac04 CPI \uc9c0\ud45c(CPI: \uc18c\ube44\uc790\ubb3c\uac00\uc9c0\uc218, \uac00\uacc4\uac00 \uc0ac\ub294 \uc0c1\ud488\u00b7\uc11c\ube44\uc2a4 \uac00\uaca9 \ubcc0\ud654\ub97c \ub098\ud0c0\ub0c4)** \uac00 **3.8%**\ub85c \ubc1c\ud45c\ub410\ub294\ub370, \ubaa9\ud45c \ubc94\uc704\ub97c \ud06c\uac8c \uc6c3\ub3c4\ub294 \uc218\uc900\uc785\ub2c8\ub2e4. \uc774\ub294 2025\ub144\uc5d0 \ub098\ud0c0\ub098\uae30 \uc2dc\uc791\ud55c \ubb3c\uac00 \ubb38\uc81c\uac00 \uacc4\uc18d\ub418\uace0 \uc788\uc74c\uc744 \ubcf4\uc5ec\uc90d\ub2c8\ub2e4. \uadf8 \uacb0\uacfc \uc2dc\uc7a5\uc740 \uc62c\ud574 **\uae08\ub9ac \uc778\ud558**\ub97c \ub354 \uc774\uc0c1 \uae30\ub300\ud558\uc9c0 \uc54a\uac8c \ub410\uace0, \uc774\ub294 \uba87 \ub2ec \uc804\uacfc \ube44\uad50\ud574 \ud070 \ubcc0\ud654\uc785\ub2c8\ub2e4.\n\n\ubbf8\uad6d \uc5f0\ubc29\uc900\ube44\uc81c\ub3c4(Fed\u00b7Federal Reserve)\ub3c4 **\uae30\uc900\uae08\ub9ac(\uc911\uc559\uc740\ud589\uc758 \ub300\ud45c \uc815\ucc45\uae08\ub9ac)** \ub97c 5.50%\ub85c \uc720\uc9c0\ud558\uace0 \uc788\uc5b4, \uc138\uacc4\uc801\uc73c\ub85c\ub294 **\uae34\ucd95\uc801(restrictive: \uacbd\uae30\ubcf4\ub2e4 \ubb3c\uac00 \uc548\uc815\uc5d0 \ub354 \ubb34\uac8c\ub97c \ub450\ub294, \uae08\ub9ac\ub97c \ub192\uac8c \uc720\uc9c0\ud558\ub294)** \uc815\ucc45\uc744 \uc774\uc5b4\uac00\uae30\uc5d0 \uc720\ub9ac\ud55c \ud658\uacbd\uc785\ub2c8\ub2e4. \ub530\ub77c\uc11c \uc804\ubc18\uc801\uc73c\ub85c **\uae08\ub9ac\uac00 \ub354 \uc624\ub798 \ub192\uac8c \uc720\uc9c0\ub418\ub294 \ud658\uacbd(higher-for-longer: \uae08\ub9ac\uac00 \ube60\ub974\uac8c \ub0b4\ub824\uac00\uc9c0 \uc54a\ub294 \uc0c1\ud669)** \uc744 \uc608\uc0c1\ud574\uc57c \ud569\ub2c8\ub2e4.\n\n**\ud30c\uc0dd\uc0c1\ud488(derivatives: \uae30\ucd08\uc790\uc0b0\uc758 \uac00\uaca9\uc5d0 \ub530\ub77c \uac00\uce58\uac00 \uc6c0\uc9c1\uc774\ub294 \uacc4\uc57d, \uc608: \uc120\ubb3c\u00b7\uc635\uc158)** \ud2b8\ub808\uc774\ub354\uc5d0\uac8c\ub294 \uae08\ub9ac \ubcc0\ub3d9\uc774 \uacc4\uc18d \ud074 \uc218 \uc788\ub2e4\ub294 \uc2e0\ud638\uc785\ub2c8\ub2e4. **MOVE \uc9c0\uc218(MOVE index: \uad6d\ucc44 \uc2dc\uc7a5\uc758 \ubcc0\ub3d9\uc131, \uc989 \uac00\uaca9 \ud754\ub4e4\ub9bc \uc815\ub3c4\ub97c \ubcf4\uc5ec\uc8fc\ub294 \uc9c0\ud45c)** \ub294 \uc774\ubc88 \ub2ec \uc774\ubbf8 115\ud3ec\uc778\ud2b8\ub97c \ub118\uc5c8\uace0, \uc774\ub294 \ubd88\ud655\uc2e4\uc131\uc744 \ubc18\uc601\ud569\ub2c8\ub2e4. \uc774\uc5d0 \ub530\ub77c **\uac00\uaca9 \ubcc0\ub3d9\uc73c\ub85c \uc774\uc775\uc744 \ub178\ub9ac\ub294 \uc804\ub7b5**(\uc608: \ucc44\uad8c \uc120\ubb3c\uc5d0 \ub300\ud55c **\ub871 \uc2a4\ud2b8\ub798\ub4e4(long straddle: \uac19\uc740 \ub9cc\uae30\u00b7\uac19\uc740 \ud589\uc0ac\uac00\uc758 \ucf5c\uc635\uc158\uacfc \ud48b\uc635\uc158\uc744 \ub3d9\uc2dc\uc5d0 \uc0ac\uc11c, \uc5b4\ub290 \ubc29\ud5a5\uc774\ub4e0 \ud06c\uac8c \uc6c0\uc9c1\uc774\uba74 \uc774\uc775\uc744 \ub178\ub9ac\ub294 \uc804\ub7b5)**)\uc744 \uace0\ub824\ud560 \uc218 \uc788\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4.\n\n\ud2b9\ud788 \ud638\uc8fc\ub2ec\ub7ec\ub294 \ub9e4\ud30c\uc801\uc778 RBA\uc758 \uc601\ud5a5\uc73c\ub85c \uc9c0\uc9c0\ub97c \ubc1b\uc744 \uac00\ub2a5\uc131\uc774 \uc788\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4. **AUD\/USD \ucf5c\uc635\uc158(call option: \uc815\ud574\uc9c4 \uac00\uaca9\uc5d0 \ub098\uc911\uc5d0 \uc0b4 \uc218 \uc788\ub294 \uad8c\ub9ac)** \uc744 \ud65c\uc6a9\ud558\uba74 \uc81c\ud55c\ub41c \uc704\ud5d8\uc73c\ub85c \uc0c1\uc2b9 \uac00\ub2a5\uc131\uc5d0 \ub178\ucd9c\ub420 \uc218 \uc788\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4. 2025\ub144\uc5d0 \ubd88\ub85d \ucd1d\uc7ac\uac00 \ubcf4\uc600\ub358 \ub9e4\ud30c\uc801 \ubc1c\uc5b8\uc740, \uc624\ub298\ub0a0 \uc911\uc559\uc740\ud589\uc758 \uc785\uc7a5\uc5d0\ub3c4 \uadf8\ub300\ub85c \uc774\uc5b4\uc9c0\ub294 \ub4ef\ud569\ub2c8\ub2e4.\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph-->\n<p><b>VT Markets \ub77c\uc774\ube0c \uacc4\uc815\uc744 \ub9cc\ub4e4\uace0 \uc9c0\uae08 \ubc14\ub85c <a href=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr\/trade-now\/\">\uac70\ub798<\/a>\ub97c \uc2dc\uc791\ud558\uc138\uc694.<\/b><\/p>\n<!-- \/wp:post-content -->","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>\uc774\ub780 \uc804\uc7c1 \ud6c4 \uae08\ub9ac \uc7ac\uac00\uaca9! RBA 25bp \uc778\uc0c1\uacfc \ub9e4\ud30c\uc801 \uc2e0\ud638\ub85c \ud638\uc8fc CPI 3.8% \uace0\ucc29, \uae08\ub9ac\uc778\ud558 \uae30\ub300 \uc18c\uba78. \uc5f0\uc900 5.50% \ub3d9\uacb0 \uc18d \ubcc0\ub3d9\uc131(MOVE 115+) \ud655\ub300; \ucc44\uad8c \uc2a4\ud2b8\ub798\ub4e4\u00b7AUD\/USD \ucf5c \uc720\ub9dd. &#8211; vtmarkets.com<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":103,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-41570","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/41570","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/103"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=41570"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/41570\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=41570"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=41570"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=41570"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}