{"id":41555,"date":"2026-03-18T07:44:06","date_gmt":"2026-03-18T07:44:06","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr\/uncategorized\/rba%ec%9d%98-%eb%a7%a4%ed%8c%8c%ec%a0%81-%ea%b8%88%eb%a6%ac-%ec%9d%b8%ec%83%81-%ec%9d%b4%ed%9b%84-%ed%98%b8%ec%a3%bc%eb%8b%ac%eb%9f%ac%ea%b0%80-%ea%b0%95%ec%84%b8%eb%a5%bc-%eb%b3%b4%ec%9d%b4%eb%a9%b0\/"},"modified":"2026-03-18T07:44:06","modified_gmt":"2026-03-18T07:44:06","slug":"rba%ec%9d%98-%eb%a7%a4%ed%8c%8c%ec%a0%81-%ea%b8%88%eb%a6%ac-%ec%9d%b8%ec%83%81-%ec%9d%b4%ed%9b%84-%ed%98%b8%ec%a3%bc%eb%8b%ac%eb%9f%ac%ea%b0%80-%ea%b0%95%ec%84%b8%eb%a5%bc-%eb%b3%b4%ec%9d%b4%eb%a9%b0","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/live-updates\/rba%ec%9d%98-%eb%a7%a4%ed%8c%8c%ec%a0%81-%ea%b8%88%eb%a6%ac-%ec%9d%b8%ec%83%81-%ec%9d%b4%ed%9b%84-%ed%98%b8%ec%a3%bc%eb%8b%ac%eb%9f%ac%ea%b0%80-%ea%b0%95%ec%84%b8%eb%a5%bc-%eb%b3%b4%ec%9d%b4%eb%a9%b0\/","title":{"rendered":"RBA\uc758 \ub9e4\ud30c\uc801 \uae08\ub9ac \uc778\uc0c1 \uc774\ud6c4 \ud638\uc8fc\ub2ec\ub7ec\uac00 \uac15\uc138\ub97c \ubcf4\uc774\uba70, \uc5f0\uc900\uc758 \uacb0\uc815\uc744 \uc55e\ub450\uace0 AUD\/USD\uac00 0.7115 \ubd80\uadfc\uc73c\ub85c \uc0c1\uc2b9"},"content":{"rendered":"AUD\/USD\ub294 \uc218\uc694\uc77c \uc544\uc2dc\uc544 \uac70\ub798\uc5d0\uc11c \uc57d 0.7115\uae4c\uc9c0 \uc62c\ub790\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4. \ud638\uc8fc\ub2ec\ub7ec(AUD)\ub294 \ud638\uc8fc\uc911\uc559\uc740\ud589(RBA)\uc774 \uae30\uc900\uae08\ub9ac\ub97c 25bp \uc778\uc0c1\ud55c \ub4a4 \ubbf8\uad6d\ub2ec\ub7ec(USD) \ub300\ube44 \uac15\uc138\ub97c \ubcf4\uc600\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4. \n– **bp(\ubca0\uc774\uc2dc\uc2a4\ud3ec\uc778\ud2b8)**: \uae08\ub9ac \ubcc0\ud654\ub97c \ub098\ud0c0\ub0b4\ub294 \ub2e8\uc704\ub85c, **25bp = 0.25%p(\ud37c\uc13c\ud2b8\ud3ec\uc778\ud2b8)**\uc785\ub2c8\ub2e4.\n\nRBA\ub294 3\uc6d4 \ud68c\uc758\uc5d0\uc11c **\uacf5\uc2dd \ud604\uae08\uae08\ub9ac(Official Cash Rate)**\ub97c 3.85%\uc5d0\uc11c 4.10%\ub85c **25bp** \uc62c\ub838\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4. \uacf5\uc2dd \ud604\uae08\uae08\ub9ac\ub294 \uc911\uc559\uc740\ud589\uc774 \uc815\ud558\ub294 **\uae30\uc900\uae08\ub9ac(\uac00\uc7a5 \uae30\ubcf8\uc774 \ub418\ub294 \uae08\ub9ac)**\ub85c, \uc2dc\uc911 \uae08\ub9ac\uc5d0 \uc601\ud5a5\uc744 \uc90d\ub2c8\ub2e4. \uc774\ubc88 \uc778\uc0c1\uc740 2\uc6d4\uc758 25bp \uc778\uc0c1\uc5d0 \uc774\uc5b4 \uc62c\ud574 \ub450 \ubc88\uc9f8 \uc5f0\uc18d \uc778\uc0c1\uc785\ub2c8\ub2e4.\n\n

Rba Signals Inflation Focus<\/h3>\nRBA\ub294 \ubb3c\uac00\uc0c1\uc2b9\ub960(\uc778\ud50c\ub808\uc774\uc158)\uc774 \uc5ec\uc804\ud788 \ub108\ubb34 \ub192\ub2e4\uace0 \ubc1d\ud614\uace0, \uc911\ub3d9 \ubd84\uc7c1\uacfc \uad00\ub828\ub41c \uc5d0\ub108\uc9c0 \ube44\uc6a9 \uc0c1\uc2b9\uc774 **2\ucc28 \ud30c\uae09 \ud6a8\uacfc**\ub97c \ub0b3\uc744 \uc218 \uc788\ub2e4\ub294 \uc810\uc744 \uc6b0\ub824\ud588\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4. \n– **2\ucc28 \ud30c\uae09 \ud6a8\uacfc(second-round effects)**: \uae30\ub984\uac12 \ub4f1 \ud2b9\uc815 \uac00\uaca9\uc774 \uc624\ub978 \ub4a4, \uadf8 \uc601\ud5a5\uc774 \uc784\uae08\u00b7\uc11c\ube44\uc2a4\u00b7\uc804\ubc18\uc801\uc778 \ubb3c\uac00\ub85c **\ucd94\uac00 \ud655\uc0b0**\ub418\ub294 \ud604\uc0c1\uc785\ub2c8\ub2e4. \n\ub610\ud55c RBA\ub294 \uc774\ubc88 \uacb0\uc815\uc774 \ud5a5\ud6c4 \uc815\ucc45\uc744 \ubbf8\ub9ac \uc815\ud574\ub454 \uace0\uc815\ub41c \uacbd\ub85c\ub294 \uc544\ub2c8\ub77c\uace0 \ud588\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4.\n\n\uc2dc\uc7a5\uc740 \ubbf8\uad6d \uc5f0\ubc29\uc900\ube44\uc81c\ub3c4(Fed)\uac00 \uc218\uc694\uc77c(3\uc6d4 \ud68c\uc758) \uae08\ub9ac\ub97c \ub3d9\uacb0\ud560 \uac83\uc73c\ub85c \uc608\uc0c1\ud558\uace0 \uc788\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4. \uc81c\ub86c \ud30c\uc6d4(Fed \uc758\uc7a5)\uc740 5\uc6d4 \uc784\uae30 \uc885\ub8cc\ub97c \uc55e\ub450\uace0 \uae30\uc790\ud68c\uacac\uc744 \ud560 \uc608\uc815\uc785\ub2c8\ub2e4.\n\n\uc77c\ubd80 \ubd84\uc11d\uac00\ub4e4\uc740 \uc9c0\uc815\ud559\uc801 \ubd88\ud655\uc2e4\uc131(\uad6d\uc81c \uc815\uc138 \uc704\ud5d8) \ub54c\ubb38\uc5d0 Fed\uac00 2026\ub144 10\uc6d4\uc774\ub098 12\uc6d4\uae4c\uc9c0 \uae08\ub9ac\ub97c \ub0b4\ub9ac\uc9c0 \uc54a\uc744 \uc218 \uc788\ub2e4\uace0 \ubd05\ub2c8\ub2e4. \n– **\uc9c0\uc815\ud559\uc801 \ubd88\ud655\uc2e4\uc131**: \uc804\uc7c1\u00b7\ubd84\uc7c1\u00b7\uad6d\uac00 \uac04 \uac08\ub4f1 \uac19\uc740 \uc0ac\uac74\uc774 \uacbd\uc81c\uc640 \uc2dc\uc7a5\uc5d0 \uc8fc\ub294 \ubd88\uc548 \uc694\uc18c\uc785\ub2c8\ub2e4. \nFed \uacb0\uc815\uc740 \uc218\uc694\uc77c \ub2a6\uac8c \ub098\uc635\ub2c8\ub2e4.\n\n\uc6b0\ub9ac\ub294 RBA\uc640 Fed \uc0ac\uc774\uc5d0 \ub69c\ub837\ud55c \uc815\ucc45 \ucc28\uc774\uac00 \uc0dd\uae30\uace0 \uc788\ub2e4\uace0 \ubd05\ub2c8\ub2e4. RBA\ub294 \uc778\ud50c\ub808\uc774\uc158\uc744 \uc7a1\uae30 \uc704\ud574 \uae30\uc900\uae08\ub9ac\ub97c 4.10%\ub85c \uc62c\ub9b0 \ubc18\uba74, Fed\ub294 \uc624\ub298 \ub2a6\uac8c \uae08\ub9ac\ub97c \uadf8\ub300\ub85c \ub458 \uac00\ub2a5\uc131\uc774 \ud07d\ub2c8\ub2e4. \uc774\ucc98\ub7fc **\uae08\ub9ac \ucc28\uc774**\uac00 \ucee4\uc9c0\uba74 \uc77c\ubc18\uc801\uc73c\ub85c \ud638\uc8fc\ub2ec\ub7ec\uac00 \ubbf8\uad6d\ub2ec\ub7ec \ub300\ube44 \uc9c0\uc9c0(\ud558\ub77d\uc744 \ub9c9\uc544\uc8fc\ub294 \ud798)\ub97c \ubc1b\ub294 \uacbd\ud5a5\uc774 \uc788\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4.\n\n

Trading Implications For Audusd<\/h3>\nRBA\uc758 \uacb0\uc815\uc740 \ud638\uc8fc \uc778\ud50c\ub808\uc774\uc158\uc774 2025\ub144 \ub9d0 \uae30\uc900 3.8%\ub85c, \uc911\uc559\uc740\ud589 \ubaa9\ud45c \ubc94\uc704\ubcf4\ub2e4 \uc5ec\uc804\ud788 \ub192\uc558\ub2e4\ub294 \uc810\uc5d0\uc11c \uc774\ud574\ud560 \ub9cc\ud569\ub2c8\ub2e4. \ubc18\uba74 \ubbf8\uad6d \uacbd\uc81c\ub294 \ub454\ud654 \uc870\uc9d0\uc774 \uc788\uc73c\uba70, 2\uc6d4 \uace0\uc6a9\ubcf4\uace0\uc11c\ub294 19\ub9cc \uba85 \uc99d\uac00\ub85c \uacac\uc870\ud558\uc9c0\ub9cc \ubb3c\uac00\ub97c \uae09\uaca9\ud788 \uc790\uadf9\ud560 \uc218\uc900\uc740 \uc544\ub2c8\ub77c\ub294 \uc2e0\ud638\ub97c \uc90d\ub2c8\ub2e4. \n– **\ub454\ud654(moderation)**: \uc131\uc7a5 \uc18d\ub3c4\uac00 \uc9c0\ub098\uce58\uac8c \ube60\ub974\uc9c0 \uc54a\uace0 **\uc644\ub9cc\ud574\uc9c0\ub294** \uc0c1\ud0dc\uc785\ub2c8\ub2e4. \n\uc774\ub294 Fed\uac00 \uae08\ub9ac\ub97c \uc7a0\uc2dc \uba48\ucd94\uace0 \uae00\ub85c\ubc8c \uae34\uc7a5\uc758 \uc601\ud5a5\uc744 \ud3c9\uac00\ud560 \uc774\uc720\uac00 \ub429\ub2c8\ub2e4.\n\n\ud2b8\ub808\uc774\ub354 \uc785\uc7a5\uc5d0\uc11c\ub294 \ub2e8\uae30\uc801\uc73c\ub85c AUD\/USD\uc5d0 **\uc0c1\uc2b9(\uac15\uc138) \uad00\uc810**\uc744 \uc2dc\uc0ac\ud569\ub2c8\ub2e4. \ud5a5\ud6c4 \uba87 \uc8fc\uac04\uc758 \uc0c1\uc2b9 \ud750\ub984\uc5d0 \uae30\ub300\uc5b4 **\ud589\uc0ac\uac00(\uc2a4\ud2b8\ub77c\uc774\ud06c) 0.7200 \uadfc\ucc98\uc758 \ucf5c\uc635\uc158**\uc744 \ub9e4\uc218\ud558\ub294 \uc804\ub7b5\uc774 \ub420 \uc218 \uc788\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4. \n– **\uc635\uc158(option)**: \uc815\ud574\uc9c4 \uae30\uac04 \uc548\uc5d0 \ubbf8\ub9ac \uc815\ud55c \uac00\uaca9\uc73c\ub85c \uc0ac\uace0\ud314 \uc218 \uc788\ub294 \uad8c\ub9ac\uc785\ub2c8\ub2e4. \n– **\ucf5c\uc635\uc158(call option)**: \uac00\uaca9\uc774 \uc624\ub97c \ub54c \uc774\uc775\uc744 \uae30\ub300\ud558\ub294 \uc635\uc158(\uc0b4 \uad8c\ub9ac)\uc785\ub2c8\ub2e4. \n\uc774 \ubc29\uc2dd\uc740 \ucd5c\ub300 \uc190\uc2e4\uc744 \uc635\uc158\uc744 \uc0ac\uae30 \uc704\ud574 \uc9c0\ubd88\ud55c **\ud504\ub9ac\ubbf8\uc5c4(\uc635\uc158 \uac00\uaca9)**\uc73c\ub85c \uc81c\ud55c\ud560 \uc218 \uc788\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4.\n\n\ub2e4\ub9cc **\ub0b4\uc7ac\ubcc0\ub3d9\uc131(implied volatility)**\uc774 \ub192\uc544 \uc635\uc158 \uac00\uaca9\uc774 \ube44\uc2fc \uc810\uc744 \uace0\ub824\ud574\uc57c \ud569\ub2c8\ub2e4. \ud604\uc7ac 1\uac1c\uc6d4 \uc635\uc158\uc740 \uc57d 9.5% \uc218\uc900\uc758 \uc608\uc0c1 \ubcc0\ub3d9\uc744 \ubc18\uc601\ud558\uace0 \uc788\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4. \n– **\ub0b4\uc7ac\ubcc0\ub3d9\uc131**: \uc2dc\uc7a5\uc774 \uc55e\uc73c\ub85c\uc758 \uac00\uaca9 \ud754\ub4e4\ub9bc\uc744 \uc5bc\ub9c8\ub098 \ud06c\uac8c \uc608\uc0c1\ud558\ub294\uc9c0 \ub098\ud0c0\ub0b4\ub294 \uac12\uc73c\ub85c, \uc77c\ubc18\uc801\uc73c\ub85c \ub192\uc744\uc218\ub85d \uc635\uc158 \uac00\uaca9\uc774 \ube44\uc2f8\uc9d1\ub2c8\ub2e4. \n\ub610\ud55c \uc624\ub298 Fed\uac00 \uc608\uc0c1\ubcf4\ub2e4 \ub354 **\ub9e4\ud30c\uc801(hawkish)**\uc778 \ud0dc\ub3c4\ub97c \ubcf4\uc774\uba74(= \uae08\ub9ac\ub97c \ub354 \uc624\ub798 \ub192\uac8c \uc720\uc9c0\ud558\uaca0\ub2e4\ub294 \uc2e0\ud638) \uc774 \ud1b5\ud654\uc30d\uc758 \ubc29\ud5a5\uc774 \ubc14\ub014 \uc218 \uc788\ub294 \uc8fc\uc694 \uc704\ud5d8\uc785\ub2c8\ub2e4. \n– **\ub9e4\ud30c\uc801**: \ubb3c\uac00\ub97c \uc7a1\uae30 \uc704\ud574 \uae08\ub9ac\ub97c \ub192\uac8c \uc720\uc9c0\ud558\uac70\ub098 \uc62c\ub9ac\ub294 \ub370 \ub354 \uc801\uadf9\uc801\uc778 \uc131\ud5a5\uc785\ub2c8\ub2e4. \n\ube44\uc6a9\uacfc \uc704\ud5d8\uc744 \uc904\uc774\ub824\uba74 \ucf5c\uc635\uc158\uc744 \ub2e8\ub3c5\uc73c\ub85c \uc0ac\uae30\ubcf4\ub2e4 **\ubd88 \ucf5c \uc2a4\ud504\ub808\ub4dc(bull call spread)**\uac00 \ub354 \uc2e0\uc911\ud560 \uc218 \uc788\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4. \n– **\ubd88 \ucf5c \uc2a4\ud504\ub808\ub4dc**: \ucf5c\uc635\uc158\uc744 \ud558\ub098 \ub9e4\uc218\ud558\uace0, \ub354 \ub192\uc740 \ud589\uc0ac\uac00\uc758 \ucf5c\uc635\uc158\uc744 \ud558\ub098 \ub9e4\ub3c4\ud574 \ube44\uc6a9\uc744 \ub0ae\ucd94\ub294 \ubc29\ubc95(\ub300\uc2e0 \ucd5c\ub300 \uc774\uc775\ub3c4 \uc81c\ud55c\ub428)\uc785\ub2c8\ub2e4.\n\n\uc55e\uc73c\ub85c\ub3c4 \ud30c\uc6d4 \uc758\uc7a5\uc758 \uc784\uae30 \uc885\ub8cc(5\uc6d4)\ub97c \uc55e\ub450\uace0 \ubbf8\uad6d\ub2ec\ub7ec\ub97c \ub458\ub7ec\uc2fc \ubd88\ud655\uc2e4\uc131\uc740 \uc774\uc5b4\uc9c8 \uc218 \uc788\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4. \uc2dc\uc7a5\uc740 \uccab Fed \uae08\ub9ac \uc778\ud558 \uc2dc\uc810\uc744 2026\ub144 \ub9d0\ub85c \ub2a6\ucdb0 \uc7a1\uace0 \uc788\uc73c\uba70, \uc774\ub294 \ub2ec\ub7ec\uc5d0 \uc77c\uc815\ud55c \ud558\ubc29 \uc81c\ud55c(\ubc84\ud300\ubaa9)\uc744 \uc904 \uc218 \uc788\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4. \ub530\ub77c\uc11c AUD\/USD\uc758 \uc0c1\uc2b9\uc740 \uae09\ub4f1\ubcf4\ub2e4\ub294 **\uc644\ub9cc\ud55c \uc6b0\uc0c1\ud5a5**\uc774 \ub420 \uac00\ub2a5\uc131\uc774 \uc788\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4.\n\n\n

VT Markets \ub77c\uc774\ube0c \uacc4\uc815\uc744 \ub9cc\ub4e4\uace0 \uc9c0\uae08 \ubc14\ub85c \uac70\ub798<\/a>\ub97c \uc2dc\uc791\ud558\uc138\uc694.<\/b><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

\uae5c\uc9dd \uae08\ub9ac\ucc28\uac00 AUD\/USD\ub97c \ubc00\uc5b4\uc62c\ub9b0\ub2e4: RBA\uac00 25bp \uc778\uc0c1\ud574 4.10%\ub85c \uc62c\ub9ac\uba70 \uc778\ud50c\ub808 \ub300\uc751. Fed\ub294 \ub3d9\uacb0 \uc608\uc0c1. \uc635\uc158\uc740 \uac15\uc138\uc9c0\ub9cc \ubcc0\ub3d9\uc131\u00b7\ub9e4\ud30c \ub9ac\uc2a4\ud06c \uacbd\uacc4. – vtmarkets.com<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":103,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-41555","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/41555","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/103"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=41555"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/41555\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=41555"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=41555"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=41555"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}