{"id":41522,"date":"2026-03-18T04:43:33","date_gmt":"2026-03-18T04:43:33","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr\/uncategorized\/rba%ec%9d%98-%ec%98%88%ec%83%81%eb%90%9c-25bp-%ea%b8%88%eb%a6%ac-%ec%9d%b8%ec%83%81%ec%9c%bc%eb%a1%9c-%ed%98%b8%ec%a3%bc%eb%8b%ac%eb%9f%ac%ea%b0%80-%ea%b0%95%ec%84%b8%eb%a5%bc-%eb%b3%b4%ec%9d%b4\/"},"modified":"2026-03-18T04:43:33","modified_gmt":"2026-03-18T04:43:33","slug":"rba%ec%9d%98-%ec%98%88%ec%83%81%eb%90%9c-25bp-%ea%b8%88%eb%a6%ac-%ec%9d%b8%ec%83%81%ec%9c%bc%eb%a1%9c-%ed%98%b8%ec%a3%bc%eb%8b%ac%eb%9f%ac%ea%b0%80-%ea%b0%95%ec%84%b8%eb%a5%bc-%eb%b3%b4%ec%9d%b4","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/live-updates\/rba%ec%9d%98-%ec%98%88%ec%83%81%eb%90%9c-25bp-%ea%b8%88%eb%a6%ac-%ec%9d%b8%ec%83%81%ec%9c%bc%eb%a1%9c-%ed%98%b8%ec%a3%bc%eb%8b%ac%eb%9f%ac%ea%b0%80-%ea%b0%95%ec%84%b8%eb%a5%bc-%eb%b3%b4%ec%9d%b4\/","title":{"rendered":"RBA\uc758 \uc608\uc0c1\ub41c 25bp \uae08\ub9ac \uc778\uc0c1\uc73c\ub85c \ud638\uc8fc\ub2ec\ub7ec\uac00 \uac15\uc138\ub97c \ubcf4\uc774\uba70 AUD\/USD\uac00 \ub2e4\uc2dc \uc0c1\uc2b9\ud574 0.7104\uc5d0 \ub3c4\ub2ec, 0.48% \uc0c1\uc2b9"},"content":{"rendered":"\ud638\uc8fc \ub2ec\ub7ec(AUD)\ub294 \ud638\uc8fc\uc911\uc559\uc740\ud589(RBA, Reserve Bank of Australia)\uc774 \uae30\uc900\uae08\ub9ac\ub97c **25bp(\ubca0\uc774\uc2dc\uc2a4 \ud3ec\uc778\ud2b8, 0.01%p \ub2e8\uc704)** \uc62c\ub824 **4.10%**\ub85c \ub9cc\ub4e0 \ub4a4 \uc774\ud2c0\uc9f8 \uc62c\ub790\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4. \ud45c\uacb0\uc740 **5\ub300 4**\uc600\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4. **AUD\/USD(\ud638\uc8fc \ub2ec\ub7ec\/\ubbf8\uad6d \ub2ec\ub7ec \ud658\uc728)**\ub294 **0.7104**\ub85c **0.48%** \uc0c1\uc2b9\ud588\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4. \n\n\ubbf8\uad6d \uc8fc\uc2dd\uc740 \uc5f0\uc900(Fed, Federal Reserve)\uc758 \uacb0\uc815\uc744 \uc55e\ub450\uace0 **\uc704\ud5d8\uc120\ud638(risk appetite, \uc704\ud5d8 \uc790\uc0b0\uc744 \uc0ac\ub824\ub294 \uc131\ud5a5)**\uac00 \uac1c\uc120\ub418\uba70 **0.10%~0.47%** \uc0c1\uc2b9\ud588\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4. **\ubbf8\uad6d \ub2ec\ub7ec \uc9c0\uc218(US Dollar Index, \uc8fc\uc694 \ud1b5\ud654 \ub300\ube44 \ub2ec\ub7ec\uc758 \uc885\ud569 \uac00\uce58 \uc9c0\ud45c)**\ub294 \ud558\ub8e8 **0.29%** \ud558\ub77d\ud588\uace0 \uc8fc\uac04\uc73c\ub85c\ub294 \uac70\uc758 **1%** \ub0b4\ub838\uc73c\uba70, **99.57**\uc744 \uae30\ub85d\ud588\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4. \n\n

Rba Decision And Market Reaction<\/h3> \n\ubbf8\uc178 \ubd88\ub85d RBA \ucd1d\uc7ac\ub294 \uc774\ubc88 \ud45c\uacb0\uc774 **\ubc29\ud5a5**\ubcf4\ub2e4 **\uc2dc\uc810**\uc758 \ubb38\uc81c\ub97c \ubc18\uc601\ud55c\ub2e4\uace0 \ub9d0\ud588\uace0, **5\uc6d4\uae4c\uc9c0 \ub3d9\uacb0**\ud558\ub294 \ubc29\uc548\ub3c4 \ub17c\uc758\ub410\ub2e4\uace0 \uc5b8\uae09\ud588\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4. \uc774\ub294 **\ucd94\uac00 \ub370\uc774\ud130(\uc9c0\ud45c)**\ub97c \ub354 \uae30\ub2e4\ub824\uc57c \ud558\uace0, **\uc911\ub3d9 \ubd84\uc7c1**\uacfc \uad00\ub828\ud55c **\ubd88\ud655\uc2e4\uc131(\uc55e\ub0a0\uc744 \uc608\uce21\ud558\uae30 \uc5b4\ub824\uc6c0)**\uc774 \uc788\uae30 \ub54c\ubb38\uc774\ub77c\uace0 \uc5f0\uacb0\ud574 \uc124\uba85\ud588\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4. \n\n\ubbf8\uad6d \ub370\uc774\ud130\uc5d0\uc11c **ADP \uace0\uc6a9\ubcc0\ud654(\ubbfc\uac04 \uace0\uc6a9\uc744 \ucd94\uc815\ud558\ub294 \uc9c0\ud45c)**\uc758 **4\uc8fc \ud3c9\uade0**\uc740 **14.75K(\uc57d 1\ub9cc 4,750\uba85)**\uc5d0\uc11c **9K(\uc57d 9,000\uba85)**\ub85c \ub5a8\uc5b4\uc84c\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4. **2\uc6d4 \uc7a0\uc815 \uc8fc\ud0dd\ub9e4\ub9e4(Pending Home Sales, \uacc4\uc57d\uc740 \ud588\uc9c0\ub9cc \uc544\uc9c1 \uac70\ub798\uac00 \ub05d\ub098\uc9c0 \uc54a\uc740 \uc8fc\ud0dd \ub9e4\ub9e4 \uc9c0\ud45c)**\ub294 1\uc6d4 **-1%** \uc774\ud6c4 **\uc804\uc6d4 \ub300\ube44 1.8%(month-on-month, \uc804\ub2ec \ub300\ube44)** \uc0c1\uc2b9\ud588\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4. \n\n\uc5f0\uc900 \ud68c\uc758\ub294 **3\uc6d4 17\uc77c** \uc2dc\uc791\ud574 \uc218\uc694\uc77c\uc5d0 **\uc131\uba85**\uacfc **\uc218\uc815\ub41c \uc804\ub9dd(\uacbd\uc81c\u00b7\uae08\ub9ac \uc804\ub9dd\uce58)**\uc744 \ub0b4\uace0 \ub05d\ub0a9\ub2c8\ub2e4. \uc2dc\uc7a5\uc740 3\uc6d4\uc5d0\ub294 **\ub3d9\uacb0**\uc744 \uc608\uc0c1\ud558\uba70, \uc62c\ud574 \ud6c4\ubc18\uc5d0 **25bp \uc778\ud558** 1\ud68c\ub97c \ubc18\uc601\ud558\uace0 \uc788\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4. \uc774\ud6c4 \uc81c\ub86c \ud30c\uc6d4 \uc758\uc7a5\uc758 **\uae30\uc790\ud68c\uacac(press conference)**\uc774 \uc774\uc5b4\uc9d1\ub2c8\ub2e4. \n\n\uae30\uc220\uc801\uc73c\ub85c(\ucc28\ud2b8 \uae30\uc900\uc73c\ub85c), **AUD\/USD**\ub294 **50\/100\/200\uc77c \uc774\ub3d9\ud3c9\uade0\uc120(moving average, \uc77c\uc815 \uae30\uac04 \uac00\uaca9\uc758 \ud3c9\uade0\uc744 \uc774\uc5b4 \ub9cc\ub4e0 \ucd94\uc138\uc120)**\uc774 \uc788\ub294 **0.69** \ubd80\uadfc \uc704\uc5d0 \uc788\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4. **RSI(\uc0c1\ub300\uac15\ub3c4\uc9c0\uc218, \uac00\uaca9\uc774 \uacfc\uc5f4\/\uce68\uccb4\uc778\uc9c0 \ubcf4\ub294 \uc9c0\ud45c)**\ub294 **55** \ubd80\uadfc\uc785\ub2c8\ub2e4. **\uc9c0\uc9c0\uc120(support, \uac00\uaca9\uc774 \uc798 \uc548 \ub0b4\ub824\uac00\ub824\ub294 \uad6c\uac04)**\uc740 **0.7040**\uacfc **0.6980**, **\uc800\ud56d\uc120(resistance, \uac00\uaca9\uc774 \uc798 \ubabb \uc62c\ub77c\uac00\ub824\ub294 \uad6c\uac04)**\uc740 **0.7150**\uacfc **0.7210**\uc785\ub2c8\ub2e4. \n\n

Policy Divergence And Trading Implications<\/h3> \n\uc0c1\ud669\uc740 2025\ub144 \uc774\ub9d8\ub54c\uc640 \ud06c\uac8c \ub2ec\ub77c\uc84c\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4. 2025\ub144\uc5d0\ub294 RBA\uac00 \uae08\ub9ac\ub97c \uc62c\ub9b0 \ub4a4 \ud638\uc8fc \ub2ec\ub7ec\uac00 0.7100 \uc704\uc5d0\uc11c \uac70\ub798\ub418\ub358 \ub54c\uac00 \uc788\uc5c8\uc9c0\ub9cc, \uc9c0\uae08\uc740 0.6550 \ubd80\uadfc\uc5d0\uc11c \ud798\uaca8\uc6cc\ud569\ub2c8\ub2e4. \uc774\ub7f0 \uc57d\uc138\ub294 \uc9c0\ub09c 1\ub144 \ub3d9\uc548 \ucee4\uc9c4 **\uc911\uc559\uc740\ud589 \uc815\ucc45\uc758 \ucc28\uc774(policy divergence, \ub098\ub77c\ubcc4 \uae08\ub9ac\u00b7\uc815\ucc45 \ubc29\ud5a5\uc774 \ub2ec\ub77c\uc9c0\ub294 \ud604\uc0c1)**\ub97c \ubc18\uc601\ud569\ub2c8\ub2e4. \n\n\uc9c0\ub09c\ud574 RBA\ub294 **\ub9e4\ud30c\uc801(hawkish, \ubb3c\uac00\ub97c \uc7a1\uae30 \uc704\ud574 \uae08\ub9ac\ub97c \ub354 \uc62c\ub9ac\ub824\ub294 \uc131\ud5a5)** \ub17c\uc7c1 \uc18d\uc5d0\uc11c \uae30\uc900\uae08\ub9ac\ub97c 4.10%\uae4c\uc9c0 \uc62c\ub9ac\uace0 \uc788\uc5c8\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4. \uc9c0\uae08 \uae08\ub9ac\ub294 3.60%\uc774\uace0, \uc911\uc559\uc740\ud589\uc758 \ub9d0\ud22c\ub294 \ub354 **\uc870\uc2ec\uc2a4\ub7fd\uace0(cautious, \uc11c\ub450\ub974\uc9c0 \uc54a\uaca0\ub2e4\ub294 \ub73b)** \uc2e0\uc911\ud569\ub2c8\ub2e4. \ucd5c\uadfc **\ubd84\uae30 CPI(\uc18c\ube44\uc790\ubb3c\uac00\uc9c0\uc218, \ubb3c\uac00\ub97c \ubcf4\uc5ec\uc8fc\ub294 \ub300\ud45c \uc9c0\ud45c)**\ub294 **\ubb3c\uac00\uc0c1\uc2b9\ub960\uc774 3.4%**\ub85c \ub0ae\uc544\uc84c\ub2e4\uace0 \ub098\ud0c0\ub0ac\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4. \uc774\ub294 \ub2e4\uc74c \uc870\uce58\uac00 \uc778\uc0c1\ubcf4\ub2e4 **\uc778\ud558**\uc77c \uac00\ub2a5\uc131\uc774 \ub354 \ud06c\ub2e4\ub294 \ub73b\uc774\uba70, \ud1b5\ud654\uc5d0 \uacc4\uc18d \ubd80\ub2f4\uc774 \ub420 \uc218 \uc788\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4. \n\n\ud55c\ud3b8 2025\ub144 3\uc6d4\uc5d0 100 \uc544\ub798\uc600\ub358 **\ubbf8\uad6d \ub2ec\ub7ec \uc9c0\uc218**\ub294 \uc9c0\uae08 **104.50** \ubd80\uadfc\uc5d0\uc11c \uac15\ud558\uac8c \uac70\ub798\ub418\uace0 \uc788\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4. \uc774\ub7f0 \uac15\uc138\ub294 \uc5f0\uc900\uc774 **\uae08\ub9ac\ub97c 5.00~5.25%** \ubc94\uc704\ub85c \uc720\uc9c0\ud558\uba74\uc11c **\uadfc\uc6d0 \uc778\ud50c\ub808\uc774\uc158(core inflation, \uc77c\uc2dc\uc801 \ubcc0\ub3d9\uc774 \ud070 \ud488\ubaa9\uc744 \uc81c\uc678\ud55c \ubb3c\uac00)**\uc774 \uc27d\uac8c \ub0b4\ub824\uac00\uc9c0 \uc54a\uace0, \uace0\uc6a9\ub3c4 \uc608\uc0c1\ubcf4\ub2e4 \ud2bc\ud2bc\ud558\ub2e4\uace0 \ubcf8 \ub370\uc11c \ub098\uc635\ub2c8\ub2e4. \uc9c0\ub09c\ub2ec\uc5d0\ub294 \uc77c\uc790\ub9ac\uac00 **25\ub9cc \uac1c \uc774\uc0c1** \ub298\uc5c8\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4. \uc2dc\uc7a5\uc774 \uae30\ub300\ud558\ub358 **\ub2e8 \ud55c \ubc88\uc758 \uae08\ub9ac \uc778\ud558** \uae30\ub300\ub294 \uc0ac\ub77c\uc84c\uace0, \uc5f0\uc900\uc740 **\ub354 \uc624\ub798 \ub192\uc740 \uae08\ub9ac(higher for longer, \uae08\ub9ac\ub97c \ube68\ub9ac \ub0b4\ub9ac\uc9c0 \uc54a\uaca0\ub2e4\ub294 \uae30\uc870)** \ucabd\uc73c\ub85c \ub9d0\ud558\uace0 \uc788\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4. \n\n**\ud30c\uc0dd\uc0c1\ud488(derivatives, \uac00\uce58\uac00 \ud658\uc728\u00b7\uae08\ub9ac \uac19\uc740 \uae30\ucd08\uc790\uc0b0 \uc6c0\uc9c1\uc784\uc5d0 \ub530\ub77c \ub2ec\ub77c\uc9c0\ub294 \uc0c1\ud488)** \uac70\ub798\uc790 \uad00\uc810\uc5d0\uc11c, \uc774\ub7f0 \ud658\uacbd\uc5d0\uc11c\ub294 AUD\/USD\uac00 \uc624\ub97c \ub54c\ub9c8\ub2e4 \ud30c\ub294 \uc804\ub7b5\uc774 \ud575\uc2ec\uc73c\ub85c \ubcf4\uc785\ub2c8\ub2e4. **\ud48b\uc635\uc158(put option, \uc815\ud574\uc9c4 \uac00\uaca9\uc5d0 \ud314 \uad8c\ub9ac)**\uc744 \uc0ac\uba74 AUD\/USD \ucd94\uac00 \ud558\ub77d\uc5d0\uc11c \uc774\uc775\uc744 \ub178\ub9ac\uba74\uc11c **\uc704\ud5d8\uc744 \uc81c\ud55c(\uc190\uc2e4\uc744 \ubbf8\ub9ac \uc815\ud574\ub450\ub294 \ud6a8\uacfc)**\ud560 \uc218 \uc788\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4. \ub354 \uc911\ub9bd\uc801\uc774\uc9c0\ub9cc \uc57d\uc138\ub85c \ubcf4\ub294 \uacbd\uc6b0, **\uc678\uac00\uaca9(out-of-the-money, \uc9c0\uae08 \uac00\uaca9\ubcf4\ub2e4 \ubd88\ub9ac\ud55c \ud589\uc0ac\uac00\uaca9)**\uc758 **\ucf5c \uc2a4\ud504\ub808\ub4dc(call spread, \ucf5c\uc635\uc158\uc744 \uc0ac\uace0\/\ud30c\ub294 \uc870\ud569)**\ub97c \ud314\uc544, \ud658\uc728\uc774 \uc704\uc5d0\uc11c \ub9c9\ud788\ub294 \ub3d9\uc548 **\ud504\ub9ac\ubbf8\uc5c4(premium, \uc635\uc158 \uac00\uaca9)**\uc744 \ubc1b\ub294 \ubc29\ubc95\ub3c4 \uc4f8 \uc218 \uc788\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4. \n\n\ucc28\ud2b8\ub97c \ubcf4\uba74, 2025\ub144\uc5d0 \ubcf4\ub358 **0.6900 \uc9c0\uc9c0\uc120**\uc740 \uc774\uc81c \uba3c \uacfc\uac70\uc785\ub2c8\ub2e4. \uc9c0\uae08\uc740 **0.6500 \uc2ec\ub9ac\uc801 \uac00\uaca9\ub300(psychological level, \uc0ac\ub78c\ub4e4\uc774 \uc758\ubbf8\ub97c \ud06c\uac8c \ub450\ub294 \ubc18\uc62c\ub9bc \uc22b\uc790 \uad6c\uac04)**\uac00 \ud575\uc2ec\uc774\uba70, \uc774 \uc218\uc900\uc774 \uae68\uc9c0\uba74 2025\ub144 \ub9d0 \uc800\uc810 \ucabd\uc73c\ub85c \ube60\ub974\uac8c \uc6c0\uc9c1\uc77c \uc218 \uc788\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4. \ubc18\ub4f1\uc774 \ub098\uc624\ub354\ub77c\ub3c4 **50\uc77c \uc774\ub3d9\ud3c9\uade0\uc120**\uc774 \uc788\ub294 **0.6620** \ubd80\uadfc\uc5d0\uc11c \uac15\ud55c \uc800\ud56d\uc744 \ubc1b\uc744 \uac00\ub2a5\uc131\uc774 \ud07d\ub2c8\ub2e4.\n\n\n

VT Markets \ub77c\uc774\ube0c \uacc4\uc815\uc744 \ub9cc\ub4e4\uace0 \uc9c0\uae08 \ubc14\ub85c \uac70\ub798<\/a>\ub97c \uc2dc\uc791\ud558\uc138\uc694.<\/b><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

RBA \uae08\ub9ac 4.10% \uc778\uc0c1\uc5d0 AUD\/USD\uac00 0.7100\ub300 \uc0c1\uc2b9\ud588\uc9c0\ub9cc, \uc774\ud6c4 \uc815\ucc45 \uc5c7\uac08\ub9bc\uc73c\ub85c 0.6550 \ubd80\uadfc \uc57d\uc138. Fed \uace0\uae08\ub9ac\u00b7\ub2ec\ub7ec \uac15\uc138 \uc18d, \uae09\ub4f1 \ub9e4\ub3c4\u00b7\ud48b\uc635\uc158 \uc804\ub7b5 \ubd80\uac01. – vtmarkets.com<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":103,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-41522","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/41522","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/103"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=41522"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/41522\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=41522"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=41522"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=41522"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}