{"id":41481,"date":"2026-03-17T23:43:39","date_gmt":"2026-03-17T23:43:39","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr\/uncategorized\/%eb%af%b8%ea%b5%ad-52%ec%a3%bc%eb%ac%bc-%ea%b5%ad%ec%b1%84-%ec%9e%85%ec%b0%b0%ec%97%90%ec%84%9c-%eb%82%99%ec%b0%b0%ea%b8%88%eb%a6%ac%ea%b0%80-3-485%eb%a1%9c-%ec%83%81%ec%8a%b9%ec%a0%84\/"},"modified":"2026-03-17T23:43:39","modified_gmt":"2026-03-17T23:43:39","slug":"%eb%af%b8%ea%b5%ad-52%ec%a3%bc%eb%ac%bc-%ea%b5%ad%ec%b1%84-%ec%9e%85%ec%b0%b0%ec%97%90%ec%84%9c-%eb%82%99%ec%b0%b0%ea%b8%88%eb%a6%ac%ea%b0%80-3-485%eb%a1%9c-%ec%83%81%ec%8a%b9%ec%a0%84","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/live-updates\/%eb%af%b8%ea%b5%ad-52%ec%a3%bc%eb%ac%bc-%ea%b5%ad%ec%b1%84-%ec%9e%85%ec%b0%b0%ec%97%90%ec%84%9c-%eb%82%99%ec%b0%b0%ea%b8%88%eb%a6%ac%ea%b0%80-3-485%eb%a1%9c-%ec%83%81%ec%8a%b9%ec%a0%84\/","title":{"rendered":"\ubbf8\uad6d 52\uc8fc\ubb3c \uad6d\ucc44 \uc785\ucc30\uc5d0\uc11c \ub099\ucc30\uae08\ub9ac\uac00 3.485%\ub85c \uc0c1\uc2b9\u2026\uc804\ud68c 3.345%\uc5d0\uc11c \uc62c\ub77c"},"content":{"rendered":"\ubbf8\uad6d\uc740 52\uc8fc(1\ub144) \ub9cc\uae30 \uc7ac\ubb34\ubd80 \ub2e8\uae30\uad6d\ucc44(T-bill\u00b7Treasury bill, \ub9cc\uae30 1\ub144 \uc774\ud558\uc758 \uad6d\ucc44)\ub97c 3.485%\uc758 \ub099\ucc30\uae08\ub9ac\ub85c \ubc1c\ud589\ud588\ub2e4. \uc774\ub294 \uc9c1\uc804 \uc785\ucc30\uc758 3.345%\uc5d0\uc11c \uc0c1\uc2b9\ud55c \uc218\uc900\uc774\ub2e4.\n\n\uc774\ubc88 \ubcc0\ud654\ub294 \uc815\ubd80\uac00 1\ub144 \ub9cc\uae30 \uc790\uae08\uc744 \uc774\uc804\ubcf4\ub2e4 \ub354 \ub192\uc740 \uc218\uc775\ub960(=\ub354 \ub192\uc740 \uc774\uc790\uc728)\ub85c \uc870\ub2ec\ud588\ub2e4\ub294 \ub73b\uc774\ub2e4. 3.345%\uc5d0\uc11c 3.485%\ub85c 0.140%\ud3ec\uc778\ud2b8(percentage point\u00b7\ud37c\uc13c\ud2b8\ud3ec\uc778\ud2b8, % \uc790\uccb4\uc758 \ucc28\uc774) \uc62c\ub790\ub2e4.\n\n<h3>Higher For Longer Rates<\/h3>\n\ucd5c\uadfc 52\uc8fc\ubb3c \uc218\uc775\ub960\uc774 3.485%\ub85c \uc624\ub978 \uac83\uc740 \uc2dc\uc7a5\uc774 \u2018\uae08\ub9ac\uac00 \ub354 \uc624\ub798 \ub192\uc740 \uc218\uc900\uc5d0\uc11c \uc720\uc9c0\ub41c\ub2e4\u2019\uace0 \ubc18\uc601(\uac00\uaca9\uc5d0 \ubbf8\ub9ac \ud3ec\ud568)\ud558\uace0 \uc788\uc74c\uc744 \uc2dc\uc0ac\ud55c\ub2e4. \uc774\ub294 \uc9c0\ub09c\uc8fc \ubc1c\ud45c\ub41c 2026\ub144 2\uc6d4 \uc18c\ube44\uc790\ubb3c\uac00\uc9c0\uc218(CPI\u00b7Consumer Price Index, \uc18c\ube44\uc790\uac00\uaca9 \ubcc0\ub3d9\uc744 \ubcf4\uc5ec\uc8fc\ub294 \uc9c0\ud45c)\uc5d0\uc11c \uadfc\uc6d0\ubb3c\uac00(core inflation\u00b7\uc5d0\ub108\uc9c0\u00b7\uc2dd\ub8cc\ud488 \ub4f1 \ubcc0\ub3d9\uc131\uc774 \ud070 \ud488\ubaa9\uc744 \ube80 \ubb3c\uac00)\uac00 3.1%\ub85c \ub098\ud0c0\ub098, \uc608\uc0c1\ub9cc\ud07c \ube60\ub974\uac8c \ub454\ud654\ub418\uc9c0 \uc54a\uc740 \ub370 \ub530\ub978 \ud750\ub984\uc774\ub2e4. \uc774\ub294 \uc5f0\uc900(Fed\u00b7Federal Reserve, \ubbf8\uad6d \uc911\uc559\uc740\ud589)\uc758 \uc5ec\ub984 \uae08\ub9ac\uc778\ud558 \uae30\ub300\uac00 \uc131\uae09\ud560 \uc218 \uc788\ub2e4\ub294 \uc2e0\ud638\ub85c \ud574\uc11d\ub41c\ub2e4.\n\n\uae08\ub9ac \uc120\ubb3c(interest rate futures, \ud5a5\ud6c4 \uae30\uc900\uae08\ub9ac \uc218\uc900\uc744 \ub450\uace0 \uac70\ub798\ud558\ub294 \ud30c\uc0dd\uc0c1\ud488)\uc744 \uac70\ub798\ud558\ub294 \ud22c\uc790\uc790\uc5d0\uac8c\ub294 \uc911\uc694\ud55c \ubcc0\ud654\ub2e4. CME \ud398\ub4dc\uc6cc\uce58(CME FedWatch, \uae08\ub9ac\uc120\ubb3c \uac00\uaca9\uc744 \ubc14\ud0d5\uc73c\ub85c \ud5a5\ud6c4 \uae30\uc900\uae08\ub9ac \ud655\ub960\uc744 \ucd94\uc815\ud558\ub294 \uc9c0\ud45c)\uc5d0 \ub530\ub974\uba74 2026\ub144 5\uc6d4 \uae08\ub9ac\uc778\uc0c1 \uac00\ub2a5\uc131\uc774 40%\ub97c \ub118\uc5b4\uc130\ub2e4. \uc774\ub294 \ubd88\uacfc \ud55c \ub2ec \uc804 15% \uc218\uc900\uc5d0\uc11c \ud06c\uac8c \uc7ac\ud3c9\uac00\ub41c \uac83\uc774\ub2e4. \uc774\ub7f0 \ud658\uacbd\uc5d0\uc11c\ub294 \uc218\uc775\ub960 \uc0c1\uc2b9(=\ucc44\uad8c\uac00\uaca9 \ud558\ub77d)\uc5d0 \ubca0\ud305\ud558\ub294 \uc804\ub7b5\uc774 \uc720\ub9ac\ud560 \uc218 \uc788\ub2e4. \uc608\ub97c \ub4e4\uc5b4 \ubbf8 \uad6d\ucc44 ETF(\uc0c1\uc7a5\uc9c0\uc218\ud380\ub4dc)\uc778 TLT \uac19\uc740 \uc0c1\ud488\uc5d0 \ud48b\uc635\uc158(put option, \uc815\ud574\uc9c4 \uac00\uaca9\uc5d0 \ud314 \uc218 \uc788\ub294 \uad8c\ub9ac\ub85c \uac00\uaca9 \ud558\ub77d\uc5d0 \uc720\ub9ac)\uc744 \ub9e4\uc218\ud558\ub294 \ubc29\uc2dd\uc774\ub2e4.\n\n\uc8fc\uc2dd\uc2dc\uc7a5\uc5d0\uc11c\ub294 \uae08\ub9ac \uc0c1\uc2b9\uc774 \uae30\uc5c5\uac00\uce58(valuation, \ubbf8\ub798 \uc774\uc775\uc744 \ud604\uc7ac \uac00\uce58\ub85c \ud658\uc0b0\ud55c \uac12)\uc5d0 \ubd80\ub2f4\uc744 \uc8fc\uba70, \ud2b9\ud788 \uc131\uc7a5\uc8fc\u00b7\uae30\uc220\uc8fc\uc5d0 \ud0c0\uaca9\uc774 \ud06c\ub2e4. \ub098\uc2a4\ub2e5100(NASDAQ 100, \ubbf8\uad6d \ub300\ud615 \uae30\uc220\uc8fc \uc911\uc2ec \uc9c0\uc218)\uc740 \uc774\ubc88 \uc785\ucc30 \uacb0\uacfc \uc774\ud6c4 2% \uc870\uc815\uc744 \uc774\ubbf8 \uacaa\uc5c8\ub294\ub370, \uc870\ub2ec\ube44\uc6a9 \uc0c1\uc2b9\uc774 \ud5a5\ud6c4 \uc774\uc775 \uc804\ub9dd\uc5d0 \ubd80\uc815\uc801\uc73c\ub85c \uc791\uc6a9\ud558\uae30 \ub54c\ubb38\uc774\ub2e4. \uc8fc\uc694 \uc9c0\uc218\uc5d0\uc11c \ub2e8\uae30 \ud48b\uc635\uc158 \ub9e4\uc218(\ud5e4\uc9c0\u00b7hedging, \uc190\uc2e4\uc744 \uc904\uc774\uae30 \uc704\ud55c \ubc29\uc5b4 \uac70\ub798)\uac00 \ub298\uc5b4\ub098\ub294 \ubaa8\uc2b5\ub3c4 \ub098\ud0c0\ub098\uace0 \uc788\ub2e4.\n\n\uc774\ub294 2022\ub144 \ub0b4\ub0b4 \uad00\ucc30\ub410\ub358 \ud750\ub984\uacfc \ub2ee\uc558\ub2e4. \ub2f9\uc2dc\uc5d0\ub294 \uc778\ud50c\ub808\uc774\uc158(\ubb3c\uac00\uc0c1\uc2b9)\uc774 \uc9c0\uc18d\ub418\uba70 \uc5f0\uc900\uc774 \ube60\ub974\uac8c \uae08\ub9ac\ub97c \uc62c\ub838\uace0, \uc704\ud5d8\uc790\uc0b0(risk assets\u00b7\uc8fc\uc2dd \ub4f1 \uac00\uaca9 \ubcc0\ub3d9\uc774 \ud070 \uc790\uc0b0)\uc758 \uac00\uaca9\uc774 \uae09\uaca9\ud788 \ub2e4\uc2dc \ub9e4\uaca8\uc84c\ub2e4(\ub9ac\ud504\ub77c\uc774\uc2f1\u00b7repricing). \uae08\ub9ac\uac00 \ub192\uc544\uc9c0\uba74 \ubb34\uc704\ud5d8 \uae08\ub9ac(risk-free rate\u00b7\uad6d\ucc44\ucc98\ub7fc \uc2e0\uc6a9\uc704\ud5d8\uc774 \uac70\uc758 \uc5c6\ub294 \uc790\uc0b0\uc758 \uc218\uc775\ub960)\uc758 \ub9e4\ub825\uc774 \ucee4\uc838 \uc8fc\uc2dd\uc5d0 \ubd88\ub9ac\ud558\uac8c \uc791\uc6a9\ud560 \uc218 \uc788\ub2e4\ub294 \uc810\uc774 \ub4dc\ub7ec\ub09c \uc0ac\ub840\ub2e4. \uc774\ubc88\uc5d0\ub294 \ubcc0\ub3d9\uc131\uc9c0\uc218(VIX\u00b7CBOE Volatility Index, \uc635\uc158 \uac00\uaca9\uc744 \ubc14\ud0d5\uc73c\ub85c \uc2dc\uc7a5 \ubd88\uc548 \uc2ec\ub9ac\ub97c \ub098\ud0c0\ub0b4\ub294 \uc9c0\ud45c)\uac00 2\uc8fc \uc804 15\uc5d0\uc11c 19\ub85c \uc0c1\uc2b9\ud574 \ubd88\uc548 \uc2ec\ub9ac\uac00 \ucee4\uc9c0\uace0 \uc788\uc74c\uc744 \ubcf4\uc5ec\uc900\ub2e4.\n\n<h3>Dollar Strength Continues<\/h3>\n\ubbf8\uad6d \uae08\ub9ac \uc804\ub9dd\uc774 \uac15\ud574\uc9c0\uba74\uc11c \ub2ec\ub7ec\ub3c4 \uac15\uc138\ub97c \ubcf4\uc774\uace0 \uc788\ub2e4. \ub2ec\ub7ec\uc778\ub371\uc2a4(DXY\u00b7U.S. Dollar Index, \uc8fc\uc694 6\uac1c \ud1b5\ud654 \ub300\ube44 \ub2ec\ub7ec \uac00\uce58\ub97c \ub098\ud0c0\ub0b4\ub294 \uc9c0\uc218)\ub294 105.50 \uc800\ud56d\uc120(resistance level, \uc0c1\uc2b9 \uc2dc \ub9c9\ud790 \uc218 \uc788\ub294 \uac00\uaca9\ub300)\uc744 \ub3cc\ud30c\ud588\ub2e4. \uc774\ub294 \ub354 \ub192\uc740 \uc218\uc775\ub960\uc744 \uc8fc\ub294 \ubbf8\uad6d \uc790\uc0b0\uc73c\ub85c \uc790\uae08\uc774 \uc720\uc785(capital flows, \ud22c\uc790\uc790\uae08 \uc774\ub3d9)\ub41c \uc601\ud5a5\uc774\ub2e4. \uc678\ud658 \ud2b8\ub808\uc774\ub354\ub294 \ud2b9\ud788 \ub2e4\ub978 \uad6d\uac00 \uc911\uc559\uc740\ud589\uc774 \ub354 \ube68\ub9ac \uc644\ud654(ease policy\u00b7\uae08\ub9ac \uc778\ud558 \ub4f1 \ud1b5\ud654\uc815\ucc45\uc744 \ub290\uc2a8\ud558\uac8c \ud568)\uc5d0 \ub098\uc124 \uac83\uc73c\ub85c \uc608\uc0c1\ub418\ub294 \ud1b5\ud654 \ub300\ube44 \ub2ec\ub7ec \uac15\uc138\uac00 \uc774\uc5b4\uc9c0\ub294\uc9c0 \uc8fc\uc2dc\ud560 \ud544\uc694\uac00 \uc788\ub2e4.\n<p>\n\n<p><strong>\uc9c0\uae08 \ubc14\ub85c \uac70\ub798\ub97c \uc2dc\uc791\ud558\uc138\uc694 &#8211; VT Markets \uc2e4\uacc4\uc88c\ub97c \uac1c\uc124\ud558\ub824\uba74 <a href=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr\/trade-now\/\">\uc5ec\uae30<\/a>\ub97c \ud074\ub9ad\ud558\uc138\uc694 <\/strong> <\/p>\n<!-- \/wp:post-content -->","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>\ubbf8 52\uc8fc T-bill \uae08\ub9ac 3.485%\ub85c 0.14%p \uc0c1\uc2b9\u2026\u2018\uace0\uae08\ub9ac \uc7a5\uae30\ud654\u2019 \ubca0\ud305 \ud655\uc0b0. CPI \ub454\ud654 \uc9c0\uc5f0\uc5d0 \uc778\ud558 \uae30\ub300 \ud6c4\ud1f4, \ub2ec\ub7ec \uac15\uc138\u00b7\uc8fc\uc2dd \ubc38\ub958 \ubd80\ub2f4, \ud5e4\uc9c0 \uc218\uc694\u2191.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-41481","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/41481","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=41481"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/41481\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=41481"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=41481"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=41481"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}