{"id":41315,"date":"2026-03-17T03:43:36","date_gmt":"2026-03-17T03:43:36","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr\/uncategorized\/%ec%a4%91%ea%b5%ad%ec%9d%98-%ea%b2%ac%ec%a1%b0%ed%95%9c-%ec%a7%80%ed%91%9c%ea%b0%80-%ec%a0%84%eb%a7%9d%ec%9d%84-%eb%81%8c%ec%96%b4%ec%98%ac%eb%a6%ac%eb%a9%b0-nzd-usd%ea%b0%80-4%ea%b1%b0%eb%9e%98\/"},"modified":"2026-03-17T03:43:36","modified_gmt":"2026-03-17T03:43:36","slug":"%ec%a4%91%ea%b5%ad%ec%9d%98-%ea%b2%ac%ec%a1%b0%ed%95%9c-%ec%a7%80%ed%91%9c%ea%b0%80-%ec%a0%84%eb%a7%9d%ec%9d%84-%eb%81%8c%ec%96%b4%ec%98%ac%eb%a6%ac%eb%a9%b0-nzd-usd%ea%b0%80-4%ea%b1%b0%eb%9e%98","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/live-updates\/%ec%a4%91%ea%b5%ad%ec%9d%98-%ea%b2%ac%ec%a1%b0%ed%95%9c-%ec%a7%80%ed%91%9c%ea%b0%80-%ec%a0%84%eb%a7%9d%ec%9d%84-%eb%81%8c%ec%96%b4%ec%98%ac%eb%a6%ac%eb%a9%b0-nzd-usd%ea%b0%80-4%ea%b1%b0%eb%9e%98\/","title":{"rendered":"\uc911\uad6d\uc758 \uacac\uc870\ud55c \uc9c0\ud45c\uac00 \uc804\ub9dd\uc744 \ub04c\uc5b4\uc62c\ub9ac\uba70 NZD\/USD\uac00 4\uac70\ub798\uc77c \uc5f0\uc18d \ud558\ub77d \ud6c4 0.5860 \ubd80\uadfc\uc5d0\uc11c \ubc18\ub4f1"},"content":{"rendered":"NZD\/USD\ub294 4\uac70\ub798\uc77c \uc5f0\uc18d \ud558\ub77d \ud6c4 0.5860 \ubd80\uadfc\uc5d0\uc11c \uac70\ub798\ub410\ub2e4. \uc774\ubc88 \uc6c0\uc9c1\uc784\uc740 \uc911\uad6d \uc9c0\ud45c\uac00 \uc608\uc0c1\ubcf4\ub2e4 \uc88b\uac8c \ub098\uc628 \ub4a4 \ub098\ud0c0\ub0ac\ub2e4. \uc911\uad6d\uc740 \ub274\uc9c8\ub79c\ub4dc \ubb34\uc5ed\uc5d0 \uc911\uc694\ud55c \uc5f0\uacb0\uace0\ub9ac\ub2e4.\n\n\uc911\uad6d \uad6d\uac00\ud1b5\uacc4\uad6d(National Bureau of Statistics)\uc740 2\uc6d4 \uc18c\ub9e4\ud310\ub9e4(Retail Sales, \uc0ac\ub78c\ub4e4\uc774 \uc0c1\uc810\u00b7\uc628\ub77c\uc778\uc5d0\uc11c \uc0b0 \uc0c1\ud488\/\uc11c\ube44\uc2a4\uc758 \ud310\ub9e4\uc561)\uac00 \uc804\ub144 \ub300\ube44 2.8% \uc99d\uac00\ud588\ub2e4\uace0 \ubc1d\ud614\ub2e4. \uc774\ub294 \uc608\uc0c1\uce58 2.5%\uc640 \uc774\uc804\uce58 0.9%\ub97c \uc6c3\ub3cc\uc558\ub2e4.\n\n

Risk Sentiment Improves<\/h3>\n\uc704\ud5d8\uc120\ud638(Risk sentiment, \ud22c\uc790\uc790\ub4e4\uc774 \uc704\ud5d8 \uc790\uc0b0\uc744 \ub354 \uc0b4\uc9c0\/\ud53c\ud560\uc9c0\uc5d0 \ub300\ud55c \ubd84\uc704\uae30)\ub294 \ubbf8\uad6d\uc774 \ud638\ub974\ubb34\uc988 \ud574\ud611(Strait of Hormuz, \uc911\ub3d9\uc758 \uc8fc\uc694 \uc6d0\uc720 \uc218\uc1a1\ub85c)\uc5d0\uc11c \uc120\ubc15\uc744 \ud638\uc704(escort, \uc548\uc804\uc744 \uc704\ud574 \ud568\uaed8 \uc774\ub3d9)\ud560 \uad6d\uc81c \uadf8\ub8f9\uc744 \ub9cc\ub4e4 \uc218 \uc788\ub2e4\ub294 \ubcf4\ub3c4 \uc774\ud6c4 \uac1c\uc120\ub410\ub2e4. \uc911\ub3d9 \uc804\uc7c1\uc774 \uacc4\uc18d \uc8fc\ubaa9\ubc1b\ub294 \uac00\uc6b4\ub370, \ubbf8\uad6d \ub2ec\ub7ec(US Dollar)\ub294 \uc57d\uc138\uc600\ub2e4.\n\n\uc2dc\uc7a5\uc740 4\uc6d4 8\uc77c\ub85c \uc608\uc815\ub41c \ub274\uc9c8\ub79c\ub4dc \uc911\uc559\uc740\ud589(Reserve Bank of New Zealand, RBNZ)\uc758 \uae08\ub9ac \uacb0\uc815(rate decision, \uae30\uc900\uae08\ub9ac\ub97c \uc62c\ub9b4\uc9c0\/\ub0b4\ub9b4\uc9c0\/\uc720\uc9c0\ud560\uc9c0 \uacb0\uc815)\uc744 \uc9c0\ucf1c\ubcf4\uace0 \uc788\ub2e4. \uc2dc\uc7a5 \uc608\uc0c1(pricing, \uc2dc\uc7a5 \uac00\uaca9\uc5d0 \ubc18\uc601\ub41c \uae30\ub300)\uc744 \ubcf4\uba74 9\uc6d4\ucbe4 25bp \uc778\uc0c1 \uac00\ub2a5\uc131\uc774 \ud06c\uba70, \uc5f0\ub9d0\uae4c\uc9c0 \ucd94\uac00 \uc778\uc0c1 \uac00\ub2a5\uc131\ub3c4 \uc788\ub2e4. (bp=\ubca0\uc774\uc2dc\uc2a4\ud3ec\uc778\ud2b8, \uae08\ub9ac 0.01%p)\n\n4\uc2dc\uac04 \ucc28\ud2b8(4-hour chart, 4\uc2dc\uac04 \ub2e8\uc704\ub85c \uac00\uaca9\uc744 \ud45c\uc2dc\ud55c \ucc28\ud2b8)\uc5d0\uc11c \uac00\uaca9\uc740 0.5800 \uc544\ub798\uc5d0\uc11c \ubc18\ub4f1\ud55c \ub4a4 0.5839\ub97c \ub2e4\uc2dc \ud68c\ubcf5\ud558\uba70 0.5860\uc5d0 \uc788\uc5c8\ub2e4. 20\uae30\uac04 SMA(20-period SMA, \ucd5c\uadfc 20\uac1c \uad6c\uac04\uc758 \ub2e8\uc21c\uc774\ub3d9\ud3c9\uade0\uc120) 0.5848 \uc704\uc5d0 \uc788\uc5c8\uc9c0\ub9cc, 100\uae30\uac04 SMA(\ucd5c\uadfc 100\uac1c \uad6c\uac04\uc758 \ub2e8\uc21c\uc774\ub3d9\ud3c9\uade0\uc120) 0.5924 \ubd80\uadfc \uc544\ub798\uc5d0 \uc788\uc5c8\ub2e4.\n\nRSI(RSI, \uc0c1\ub300\uac15\ub3c4\uc9c0\uc218: \uac00\uaca9 \uc0c1\uc2b9\/\ud558\ub77d\uc758 \ud798\uc744 0~100\uc73c\ub85c \ubcf4\uc5ec\uc8fc\ub294 \uc9c0\ud45c)\ub294 50\uc73c\ub85c \ub3cc\uc544\uc654\uc9c0\ub9cc \ud798\uc774 \uc57d\ud574\uc84c\ub2e4. \uc800\ud56d\uc120(resistance, \uc624\ub974\uae30 \uc5b4\ub824\uc6b4 \uac00\uaca9\ub300)\uc740 0.5869\ub85c \ubcf4\uc600\uace0, \uc9c0\uc9c0\uc120(support, \ub0b4\ub824\uac00\uae30 \uc5b4\ub824\uc6b4 \uac00\uaca9\ub300)\uc740 0.5839\uc640 0.5794\uc600\ub2e4. 0.5869\ub97c \ud655\uc2e4\ud788 \ub118\uc73c\uba74 0.5920 \ubd80\uadfc\uc774 \ub2e4\uc74c \ubaa9\ud45c \uad6c\uac04\uc774 \ub420 \uc218 \uc788\ub2e4.\n\n

Options Strategy Considerations<\/h3>\n\ud604\uc7ac \ud0a4\uc704(Kiwi, \ub274\uc9c8\ub79c\ub4dc \ub2ec\ub7ec NZD\uc758 \ubcc4\uce6d)\ub294 \uc870\uc2ec\uc2a4\ub7ec\uc6b4 \ud68c\ubcf5\uc744 \ubcf4\uc774\uace0 \uc788\uc73c\uba70, \uc8fc\ub41c \uc774\uc720\ub294 \uc911\uad6d \uacbd\uc81c \uc9c0\ud45c\uac00 \uc608\uc0c1\ubcf4\ub2e4 \uc88b\uc558\uae30 \ub54c\ubb38\uc774\ub2e4. \uad6d\uac00\ud1b5\uacc4\uad6d\uc740 2\uc6d4 \uc18c\ub9e4\ud310\ub9e4\uac00 \uc804\ub144 \ub300\ube44 2.8% \uc99d\uac00\ud588\ub2e4\uace0 \ubc1c\ud45c\ud588\uace0, \uc0b0\uc5c5\uc0dd\uc0b0(industrial production, \uacf5\uc7a5\u00b7\uc81c\uc870\uc5c5 \uc0dd\uc0b0\ub7c9 \uc9c0\ud45c)\ub3c4 \uac1c\uc120\ub410\ub2e4. \ub274\uc9c8\ub79c\ub4dc\uc640 \uc911\uad6d\uc758 \ubb34\uc5ed \uad00\uacc4\uac00 \uac00\uae4c\uc6cc \uc774\ub7f0 \uc9c0\ud45c\ub294 \ub274\uc9c8\ub79c\ub4dc \ub2ec\ub7ec\uc5d0 \ub3c4\uc6c0\uc774 \ub41c\ub2e4.\n\n4\uc6d4 8\uc77c RBNZ \ud68c\uc758\uac00 \uc774\uc81c \uac00\uc7a5 \uc911\uc694\ud55c \uc77c\uc815\uc774\ub2e4. \uacfc\uac70\ub97c \ubcf4\uba74, \uc138\uacc4 \uc131\uc7a5 \ub454\ud654 \uc6b0\ub824\uac00 \ucee4\uc9c0\uba74\uc11c RBNZ\ub294 2025\ub144 \ub300\ubd80\ubd84 \uae30\uac04 \uae08\ub9ac\ub97c \ub3d9\uacb0(hold rates steady, \uae08\ub9ac\ub97c \uadf8\ub300\ub85c \uc720\uc9c0)\ud588\ub2e4. \uc774\uc81c \uc2dc\uc7a5\uc740 9\uc6d4\uae4c\uc9c0 25bp \uc778\uc0c1\uc744 \ubc18\uc601\ud558\uace0 \uc788\uc5b4, \ubcc0\ub3d9\uc131(volatility, \uac00\uaca9\uc774 \ud06c\uac8c \ud754\ub4e4\ub9ac\ub294 \uc815\ub3c4) \ud655\ub300\uc5d0 \ub300\ube44\ud560 \ud544\uc694\uac00 \uc788\ub2e4.\n\n\uae30\uc220\uc801 \ud750\ub984\uc774 \uc644\ub9cc\ud55c \ud68c\ubcf5\uc744 \ubcf4\uc5ec\uc8fc\ub294 \ub9cc\ud07c, 0.5920 \uc800\ud56d \uad6c\uac04\uae4c\uc9c0 \uc81c\ud55c\uc801\uc778 \uc0c1\uc2b9\uc744 \uc608\uc0c1\ud558\ub294 \uacbd\uc6b0 \ubd88 \ucf5c \uc2a4\ud504\ub808\ub4dc(bull call spread, \ucf5c\uc635\uc158\uc744 \ud558\ub098 \uc0ac\uace0 \ub354 \ub192\uc740 \ud589\uc0ac\uac00\uc758 \ucf5c\uc635\uc158\uc744 \ud558\ub098 \ud30c\ub294 \uc804\ub7b5)\uac00 \ube44\uad50\uc801 \ud569\ub9ac\uc801\uc77c \uc218 \uc788\ub2e4. \uc774 \uc804\ub7b5\uc740 \uc0c1\uc2b9 \uc2dc \uc774\uc775\uc744 \ub178\ub9ac\uba74\uc11c \uc190\uc2e4 \ubc94\uc704\ub97c \uc815\ud574 \ub9ac\uc2a4\ud06c\ub97c \ud1b5\uc81c\ud55c\ub2e4(defining our risk, \uc190\uc2e4 \ud55c\ub3c4\ub97c \uc81c\ud55c). \ub2e8\uc21c\ud788 \ucf5c\uc635\uc158\uc744 \ub9e4\uc218\ud558\ub294 \uac83\ubcf4\ub2e4 \ube44\uc6a9(cost, \ud504\ub9ac\ubbf8\uc5c4)\uc774 \ub0ae\uc544, \ud68c\ubcf5\uc774 \uc544\uc9c1 \uc57d\ud55c \uc0c1\ud669\uc5d0\uc11c \ubd80\ub2f4\uc774 \ub35c\ud558\ub2e4. (\ucf5c\uc635\uc158=\uc815\ud574\uc9c4 \uac00\uaca9\uc5d0 \uc0b4 \uc218 \uc788\ub294 \uad8c\ub9ac)\n\n\ub610\ud55c \ubbf8\uad6d \ub2ec\ub7ec \uce21\uba74\ub3c4 \ubd10\uc57c \ud55c\ub2e4. \ucd5c\uadfc \ub2ec\ub7ec\ub294 \uc57d\uc138\ub2e4. 2\uc6d4 \ubbf8\uad6d CPI(Consumer Price Index, \uc18c\ube44\uc790\ubb3c\uac00\uc9c0\uc218: \ubb3c\uac00 \uc0c1\uc2b9\ub960 \uc9c0\ud45c)\ub294 2.9%\ub85c \uc18c\ud3ed \ub454\ud654\ud574, \uc2dc\uc7a5\uc740 \uc5f0\uc900(Federal Reserve, \ubbf8\uad6d \uc911\uc559\uc740\ud589)\uc758 \uacf5\uaca9\uc801\uc778 \uae34\ucd95(tightening, \uae08\ub9ac\ub97c \uc62c\ub9ac\uac70\ub098 \uc720\ub3d9\uc131\uc744 \uc904\uc774\ub294 \uc815\ucc45) \uae30\ub300\ub97c \ub0ae\ucdc4\ub2e4. \uc774\ub7f0 \ud658\uacbd\uc740 \ub2f9\ubd84\uac04 NZD\/USD \uac19\uc740 \ud1b5\ud654\uc30d(pair, \ub450 \ud1b5\ud654\uc758 \ud658\uc728)\uc5d0 \ub3c4\uc6c0\uc774 \ub41c\ub2e4.\n\n4\uc6d4 RBNZ \ubc1c\ud45c\uac00 \uac00\uae4c\uc6cc\uc9c8\uc218\ub85d, NZD \uc635\uc158\uc758 1\uac1c\uc6d4 \ub0b4\uc7ac\ubcc0\ub3d9\uc131(one-month implied volatility, \uc635\uc158 \uac00\uaca9\uc5d0 \ubc18\uc601\ub41c \uc55e\uc73c\ub85c\uc758 \ubcc0\ub3d9\uc131 \uae30\ub300)\uc774 \uc624\ub97c \uc218 \uc788\ub2e4. \ub871 \ud3ec\uc9c0\uc158(long positions, \uc0c1\uc2b9\uc5d0 \ubca0\ud305\ud55c \ud3ec\uc9c0\uc158)\uc744 \ubcf4\uc720\ud55c \ud2b8\ub808\uc774\ub354\ub77c\uba74 0.5839 \uc9c0\uc9c0\uc120 \uc544\ub798 \ud589\uc0ac\uac00(strike, \uc635\uc158\uc744 \uc0ac\uace0\ud314 \uc218 \uc788\ub294 \uc815\ud574\uc9c4 \uac00\uaca9)\uc758 \ud48b\uc635\uc158(put, \uc815\ud574\uc9c4 \uac00\uaca9\uc5d0 \ud314 \uc218 \uc788\ub294 \uad8c\ub9ac)\uc744 \ub9e4\uc218\ud574 \ud5e4\uc9c0(hedge, \uc190\uc2e4\uc744 \uc904\uc774\uae30 \uc704\ud55c \ubcf4\ud638)\ub85c \ud65c\uc6a9\ud560 \uc218 \uc788\ub2e4. 0.5794\ub97c \ud655\uc2e4\ud788 \ud558\ud5a5 \ub3cc\ud30c(clean break, \ub69c\ub837\ud558\uac8c \ub0b4\ub824\uac10)\ud558\uba74 \uc774\ubc88 \uac15\uc138\uac00 \uc2e4\ud328\ud588\ub2e4\ub294 \uc2e0\ud638\uac00 \ub420 \uc218 \uc788\ub2e4.\n\n\n

VT Markets \ub77c\uc774\ube0c \uacc4\uc815\uc744 \ub9cc\ub4e4\uace0 \uc9c0\uae08 \ubc14\ub85c \uac70\ub798<\/a>\ub97c \uc2dc\uc791\ud558\uc138\uc694.<\/b><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

4\uc77c \uc5f0\uc18d \ud558\ub77d\ud55c NZD\/USD, \ubc18\uc804 \uae30\ud68c? \uc911\uad6d 2\uc6d4 \uc18c\ub9e4\ud310\ub9e4 2.8%\ub85c \ud638\uc870, \uc704\ud5d8\uc120\ud638 \uac1c\uc120\uacfc \ub2ec\ub7ec \uc57d\uc138\uc5d0 0.5860 \ubc18\ub4f1. 4\uc6d4 RBNZ \uc55e\ub450\uace0 \ubcc0\ub3d9\uc131\u00b7\uc800\ud56d 0.5869\/\ubaa9\ud45c 0.5920 \uc8fc\ubaa9. \uc635\uc158\uc740 \ubd88\ucf5c\uc2a4\ud504\ub808\ub4dc\u00b7\ud48b\ud5e4\uc9c0 \uace0\ub824. – vtmarkets.com<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":103,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-41315","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/41315","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/103"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=41315"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/41315\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=41315"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=41315"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=41315"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}