{"id":41271,"date":"2026-03-16T21:42:44","date_gmt":"2026-03-16T21:42:44","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr\/uncategorized\/inging%ec%9d%98-%ec%9b%8c%eb%9f%b0-%ed%8c%a8%ed%84%b0%ec%8a%a8-%ec%97%90%eb%84%88%ec%a7%80-%ec%8b%9c%ec%9e%a5-%ec%a0%84%eb%a7%9d-%ec%83%81%ed%96%a5-%ed%98%b8%eb%a5%b4%eb%ac%b4%ec%a6%88\/"},"modified":"2026-03-16T21:42:44","modified_gmt":"2026-03-16T21:42:44","slug":"inging%ec%9d%98-%ec%9b%8c%eb%9f%b0-%ed%8c%a8%ed%84%b0%ec%8a%a8-%ec%97%90%eb%84%88%ec%a7%80-%ec%8b%9c%ec%9e%a5-%ec%a0%84%eb%a7%9d-%ec%83%81%ed%96%a5-%ed%98%b8%eb%a5%b4%eb%ac%b4%ec%a6%88","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/live-updates\/inging%ec%9d%98-%ec%9b%8c%eb%9f%b0-%ed%8c%a8%ed%84%b0%ec%8a%a8-%ec%97%90%eb%84%88%ec%a7%80-%ec%8b%9c%ec%9e%a5-%ec%a0%84%eb%a7%9d-%ec%83%81%ed%96%a5-%ed%98%b8%eb%a5%b4%eb%ac%b4%ec%a6%88\/","title":{"rendered":"INGING\uc758 \uc6cc\ub7f0 \ud328\ud130\uc2a8, \uc5d0\ub108\uc9c0 \uc2dc\uc7a5 \uc804\ub9dd \uc0c1\ud5a5\u2026 \ud638\ub974\ubb34\uc988 \ud574\ud611 \ub2e8\uae30 \ud3d0\uc1c4 \uc804\ub9dd \ucca0\ud68c"},"content":{"rendered":"ING\uc758 \uc6cc\ub7f0 \ud328\ud130\uc2a8\uc740 \uae00\ub85c\ubc8c \uc5d0\ub108\uc9c0 \uc2dc\uc7a5\uc758 \uae30\ubcf8 \uc2dc\ub098\ub9ac\uc624\ub97c \uc218\uc815\ud558\uba74\uc11c, \uc55e\uc11c \ud3ec\ud568\ud588\ub358 \u2018\ud638\ub974\ubb34\uc988 \ud574\ud611\uc5d0\uc11c 2\uc8fc\uac04 \ucc28\uc9c8\u2019\uc774\ub77c\ub294 \uac00\uc815\uc744 \uc0ad\uc81c\ud588\ub2e4. \uc218\uc815\ub41c \uc2dc\ub098\ub9ac\uc624\ub294 \ucc28\uc9c8\uc774 3\uc6d4 \ub9d0\uc774\ub098 \uadf8 \uc774\ud6c4\uae4c\uc9c0 \uc774\uc5b4\uc9c0\uace0, 2~3\ubd84\uae30\uc5d0 \uac78\uccd0 \uc810\uc9c4\uc801\uc73c\ub85c \uc815\uc0c1\ud654\ub418\ub294 \ud750\ub984\uc744 \uc804\uc81c\ub85c \ud55c\ub2e4.\n\n\uae30\uc874 \uae30\ubcf8 \uc2dc\ub098\ub9ac\uc624\ub294 2\uc8fc\uac04 \uc644\uc804 \uc911\ub2e8 \uc774\ud6c4 3\uc6d4\uc5d0 \ud68c\ubcf5\uc774 \uc2dc\uc791\ub3fc 4\uc6d4\uc5d0\ub294 \uac70\uc758 \uc815\uc0c1 \uc218\uc900\uc758 \ubb3c\ub3d9\ub7c9(\uc218\uc1a1\ub7c9)\uc774 \ub3cc\uc544\uc628\ub2e4\uace0 \ubd24\ub2e4. \uadf8\ub7ec\ub098 \ubd84\uc7c1\uc774 3\uc8fc\ucc28\uc5d0 \uc811\uc5b4\ub4e4\uc5c8\ub294\ub370\ub3c4 \uc5d0\ub108\uc9c0 \uc218\uc1a1\uc774 \uc7ac\uac1c\ub418\uc9c0 \uc54a\uc544 \uc804\ub9dd\uc774 \ubc14\ub00c\uc5c8\ub2e4.\n\n<h3>Updated Base Case Assumptions<\/h3>\n\uc2dc\ub098\ub9ac\uc624 1(\uc0c8 \uae30\ubcf8 \uc2dc\ub098\ub9ac\uc624): \uaca9\uc804\uc774 \uc774\ub2ec \ub9d0\uae4c\uc9c0 \uc774\uc5b4\uc9c0\uba74\uc11c \ubb3c\ub3d9\ub7c9\uc774 3\uc6d4 \ub9d0\uae4c\uc9c0 \ub04a\uae34 \uc0c1\ud0dc\uac00 \uc9c0\uc18d\ub41c\ub2e4. \uc774\ud6c4 \uacf5\uaca9 \uac15\ub3c4\uac00 \ub0ae\uc544\uc9c0\uace0 \uc678\uad50\uc801 \uc811\ucd09\uc774 \ub298\uc5b4\ub098\uba74\uc11c 2\ubd84\uae30\uc5d0 \uc810\uc9c4\uc801 \ud68c\ubcf5\uc774 \ub098\ud0c0\ub09c\ub2e4.\n\n\uc0c1\ub958(Upstream\u00b7\uc6d0\uc720\u00b7\uac00\uc2a4\uc758 \ud0d0\uc0ac\u00b7\uac1c\ubc1c\u00b7\uc0dd\uc0b0) \uc0dd\uc0b0, \uc815\uc720\uc2dc\uc124, LNG(\uc561\ud654\ucc9c\uc5f0\uac00\uc2a4) \uc124\ube44\ub294 \uc800\uc7a5 \uc5ec\uac74\uc774 \uac1c\uc120\ub418\uba74\uc11c \uac00\ub3d9\ub960\uc744 \ub192\uc778\ub2e4. \ub610\ud55c \uc77c\ubd80 \uc6d0\uc720\ub294 \uac00\uc6a9\ud55c \ud30c\uc774\ud504\ub77c\uc778 \uc218\uc1a1 \ub2a5\ub825\uc744 \ud1b5\ud574 \ud638\ub974\ubb34\uc988\ub97c \uc6b0\ud68c\ud574 \uc774\ub3d9\ud55c\ub2e4. 3\ubd84\uae30 \ucd08\uc5d0\ub294 \ubb3c\ub3d9\ub7c9\uc774 \uac70\uc758 \uc815\uc0c1 \uc218\uc900\uc73c\ub85c \ub3cc\uc544\uc628\ub2e4.\n\n\uc2dc\ub098\ub9ac\uc624 2(\uac00\uc7a5 \ub099\uad00\uc801): 3\uc6d4 \ub9d0\uae4c\uc9c0 \uc218\uc1a1\uc774 \uac70\uc758 \uc804\uba74 \ucc28\uc9c8\uc744 \uacaa\uc9c0\ub9cc 4\uc6d4\ubd80\ud130 \uac1c\uc120\ub418\uace0, 5\uc6d4\uc5d0\ub294 \uacf5\uae09\uc774 \uac70\uc758 \uc815\uc0c1\uc73c\ub85c \ubcf5\uadc0\ud55c\ub2e4.\n\n\uc2dc\ub098\ub9ac\uc624 3: \uaca9\uc804\uc774 4\uc6d4\uae4c\uc9c0 \uc774\uc5b4\uc9c4 \ub4a4, \uc678\uad50\uac00 \uc81c\ud55c\ub41c \uc800\uac15\ub3c4 \ub300\uce58\ub85c \uc804\ud658\ub41c\ub2e4. \uc120\ubc15 \uacf5\uaca9\uc774 \uacc4\uc18d\ub418\uba74\uc11c \uc5d0\ub108\uc9c0 \uc218\uc1a1 \ucc28\uc9c8\uc774 \uc7a5\uae30\uac04 \uc9c0\uc18d\ub41c\ub2e4.\n\n<h3>Market Volatility Outlook<\/h3>\n\ucd08\uae30 \uac00\uc815\uc774\uc5c8\ub358 \u20182\uc8fc \ub9cc\uc758 \ube60\ub978 \ucc28\uc9c8 \ud574\uc18c\u2019\uac00 \uae68\uc9c4 \ub9cc\ud07c, \uc2dc\uc7a5 \ubcc0\ub3d9\uc131\uc740 \ub9e4\uc6b0 \ub192\uc740 \uc218\uc900\uc774 \uc774\uc5b4\uc9c8 \uac00\ub2a5\uc131\uc774 \ud06c\ub2e4. \ube0c\ub80c\ud2b8\uc720 \uc120\ubb3c\uc774 \ubc30\ub7f4\ub2f9 125\ub2ec\ub7ec\ub97c \ub118\uc5b4\uc11c\uc790 CBOE \uc6d0\uc720 \ubcc0\ub3d9\uc131 \uc9c0\uc218(OVX\u00b7\uc635\uc158 \uac00\uaca9\uc744 \ubc14\ud0d5\uc73c\ub85c \uc2dc\uc7a5\uc774 \uc608\uc0c1\ud558\ub294 \ud5a5\ud6c4 \ubcc0\ub3d9\uc131)\uac00 75\ub97c \uc6c3\ub3cc\uc558\ub2e4. \uc774\ub294 \uc2dc\uc7a5 \uc2a4\ud2b8\ub808\uc2a4\uac00 \ud06c\ub2e4\ub294 \uc2e0\ud638\ub2e4. 2\ubd84\uae30\uae4c\uc9c0 \uace0\ubcc0\ub3d9\uc131 \uad6d\uba74\uc774 \uc9c0\uc18d\ub420 \uc218 \uc788\ub2e4.\n\n\uc0c8 \uae30\ubcf8 \uc2dc\ub098\ub9ac\uc624(3\uc6d4 \ub9d0\uae4c\uc9c0 \ucc28\uc9c8, \uc774\ud6c4 \uc644\ub9cc\ud55c \ud68c\ubcf5)\uc5d0 \ub530\ub974\uba74, \uc6d0\uc720 \uc120\ubb3c\uace1\uc120\uc758 \ub2e8\uae30 \uad6c\uac04\uc740 \uac00\ud30c\ub978 \u2018\ubc31\uc6cc\ub370\uc774\uc158(backwardation)\u2019 \uc0c1\ud0dc\uac00 \uc774\uc5b4\uc9c8 \uc218 \uc788\ub2e4. \ubc31\uc6cc\ub370\uc774\uc158\uc740 \uadfc\uc6d4\ubb3c(\uac00\uae4c\uc6b4 \uc778\ub3c4\uc6d4) \uac00\uaca9\uc774 \uc6d0\uc6d4\ubb3c(\uba3c \uc778\ub3c4\uc6d4)\ubcf4\ub2e4 \ud06c\uac8c \ub192\uc740 \uad6c\uc870\ub85c, \ub2f9\uc7a5 \uacf5\uae09\uc774 \ubd80\uc871\ud558\ub2e4\ub294 \uc758\ubbf8\ub2e4. \ud638\ub974\ubb34\uc988 \ud574\ud611\uc740 \uae00\ub85c\ubc8c \uc11d\uc720 \uc18c\ube44\uc758 \uc57d 20%\uac00 \uc9c0\ub098\ub294 \ud575\uc2ec \ud1b5\ub85c\uc5ec\uc11c, \ub2e8\uae30 \ud504\ub9ac\ubbf8\uc5c4\uc774 \ucee4\uc9c8 \uc218 \uc788\ub2e4. \uc774\ub97c \uaca8\ub0e5\ud558\ub294 \uc804\ub7b5\uc73c\ub85c \u2018\uce98\ub9b0\ub354 \uc2a4\ud504\ub808\ub4dc(calendar spread\u00b7\ub9cc\uae30\uac00 \ub2e4\ub978 \uc120\ubb3c \uac04 \uac00\uaca9 \ucc28\uc774\uc5d0 \ubca0\ud305\ud558\ub294 \uac70\ub798)\u2019\uac00 \ud65c\uc6a9\ub420 \uc218 \uc788\ub2e4.\n\n6~7\uc6d4 \ub9cc\uae30\uc758 \ucf5c\uc635\uc158(\uc0b4 \uad8c\ub9ac) \ub9e4\uc218\ub294 \u2018\uc815\uc0c1 \ubb3c\ub3d9\ub7c9 \ubcf5\uadc0\uac00 3\ubd84\uae30 \ucd08\uae4c\uc9c0 \uc9c0\uc5f0\ub420 \uc218 \uc788\ub2e4\u2019\ub294 \uc218\uc815\ub41c \uc2dc\uac01\uacfc \ub9de\ub2ff\uc544 \uc788\ub2e4. \ub2e4\ub9cc \ub0b4\uc7ac\ubcc0\ub3d9\uc131(implied volatility\u00b7\uc635\uc158 \uac00\uaca9\uc5d0 \ubc18\uc601\ub41c \uc2dc\uc7a5\uc758 \uc608\uc0c1 \ubcc0\ub3d9\uc131)\uc774 \ub192\uc544 \uc635\uc158 \uac00\uaca9(\ud504\ub9ac\ubbf8\uc5c4)\uc774 \ube44\uc2f8\ub2e4. \uadf8\ub7fc\uc5d0\ub3c4 \ubd84\uc7c1\uc774 \ub354 \uaca9\ud654\ub418\uba74 \uac00\uaca9\uc774 \ucd94\uac00 \uae09\ub4f1\ud560 \uc704\ud5d8\uc774 \uc2e4\uc81c\ub85c \uc874\uc7ac\ud55c\ub2e4\ub294 \ub73b\uc774\uae30\ub3c4 \ud558\ub2e4. \ub9ce\uc740 \ud22c\uc790\uc790\uc5d0\uac8c\ub294 \ud070 \ud3ed\uc758 \uc0c1\ubc29 \uc6c0\uc9c1\uc784 \uac00\ub2a5\uc131\uc774 \ube44\uc2fc \ud504\ub9ac\ubbf8\uc5c4 \ubd80\ub2f4\ubcf4\ub2e4 \ub354 \uc911\uc694\ud574\uc9c8 \uc218 \uc788\ub2e4.\n\n2022\ub144 \uacf5\uae09 \ucda9\uaca9 \ub54c \uc2dc\uc7a5 \ubc18\uc751\uc744 \ubcf4\uba74, \ucd08\uae30 \uac00\uaca9 \uc6c0\uc9c1\uc784\uc740 \uae09\uaca9\ud588\uace0 \uc608\uc0c1\ubcf4\ub2e4 \uc624\ub798 \uc774\uc5b4\uc84c\ub2e4. \ub2f9\uc2dc \uadfc\uc6d4\ubb3c \uac00\uaca9\uc774 \ubd88\uacfc \uba87 \uc8fc \ub9cc\uc5d0 30% \uc774\uc0c1 \uc0c1\uc2b9\ud574 \ub9ce\uc740 \ucc38\uc5ec\uc790\uac00 \ub300\uc751\uc5d0 \uc2e4\ud328\ud588\ub2e4. \uc774 \uc804\ub840\ub294 \uc774\ubc88\uc5d0\ub3c4 \u2018\ube60\ub978 \ud574\uacb0\u2019\uc744 \uc804\uc81c\ub85c \ud558\ub294 \uac83\uc740 \uac00\ub2a5\uc131\uc774 \ub0ae\uace0 \uc704\ud5d8\uc774 \ud070 \uc120\ud0dd\uc77c \uc218 \uc788\uc74c\uc744 \uc2dc\uc0ac\ud55c\ub2e4.\n\nIEA(\uad6d\uc81c\uc5d0\ub108\uc9c0\uae30\uad6c) \ud68c\uc6d0\uad6d\uc774 \uc804\ub7b5\ube44\ucd95\uc720(SPR\u00b7\uad6d\uac00\uac00 \ube44\uc0c1\uc2dc\ub97c \ub300\ube44\ud574 \ubcf4\uc720\ud558\ub294 \uc6d0\uc720 \ube44\ucd95\ubd84) 6,000\ub9cc \ubc30\ub7f4\uc744 \uacf5\ub3d9 \ubc29\ucd9c\ud558\uaca0\ub2e4\uace0 \ubc1d\ud78c \uc810\uc740 \ub2e8\uae30\uc801\uc73c\ub85c \uac00\uaca9 \uc0c1\ub2e8\uc744 \uc81c\ud55c\ud560 \uc218 \uc788\ub2e4. \ub2e4\ub9cc \uc774 \ubb3c\ub7c9\uc740 \ucc28\uc9c8 \uaddc\ubaa8\uc5d0 \ube44\ud574 \uc791\uace0, \ud638\ub974\ubb34\uc988 \ud574\ud611\uc774\ub77c\ub294 \ubb3c\ub9ac\uc801 \ubcd1\ubaa9(\ud1b5\ub85c\uac00 \ub9c9\ud600 \ubc1c\uc0dd\ud558\ub294 \uc218\uc1a1 \ud55c\uacc4)\uc744 \ud574\uc18c\ud558\uc9c0 \ubabb\ud55c\ub2e4. \ub530\ub77c\uc11c SPR \ubc29\ucd9c\uc740 \u2018\uc704\uae30\uac00 \ub05d\ub0ac\ub2e4\u2019\ub294 \uc2e0\ud638\ub77c\uae30\ubcf4\ub2e4, \uac00\uaca9\uc774 \uc870\uae08 \ub0b4\ub824\uc62c \ub54c \ub871(\uc0c1\uc2b9) \ud3ec\uc9c0\uc158\uc744 \uc7a1\uc744 \uae30\ud68c\ub85c \ubcf4\ub294 \uc2dc\uac01\uc774 \ud544\uc694\ud558\ub2e4.\n<p>\n\n<p><strong>\uc9c0\uae08 \ubc14\ub85c \uac70\ub798\ub97c \uc2dc\uc791\ud558\uc138\uc694 &#8211; VT Markets \uc2e4\uacc4\uc88c\ub97c \uac1c\uc124\ud558\ub824\uba74 <a href=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr\/trade-now\/\">\uc5ec\uae30<\/a>\ub97c \ud074\ub9ad\ud558\uc138\uc694 <\/strong> <\/p>\n<!-- \/wp:post-content -->","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>\ud638\ub974\ubb34\uc988 \ucc28\uc9c8 \u20182\uc8fc \ub0b4 \ud574\uc18c\u2019 \uac00\uc815\uc774 \uae68\uc84c\ub2e4. ING\ub294 \ucc28\uc9c8\uc774 3\uc6d4 \ub9d0 \uc774\ud6c4\uae4c\uc9c0 \uc774\uc5b4\uc9c0\uace0 2~3\ubd84\uae30 \uc810\uc9c4 \uc815\uc0c1\ud654\ub97c \uc0c8 \uae30\ubcf8\uc73c\ub85c \uc81c\uc2dc, \uc720\uac00 \ubcc0\ub3d9\uc131\u00b7\ubc31\uc6cc\ub370\uc774\uc158 \ud655\ub300 \uacbd\uace0.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-41271","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/41271","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=41271"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/41271\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=41271"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=41271"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=41271"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}