{"id":41213,"date":"2026-03-16T13:46:08","date_gmt":"2026-03-16T13:46:08","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr\/uncategorized\/bbh%ec%9d%98-%ec%97%98%eb%a6%ac%ec%95%84%ec%8a%a4-%ed%95%98%eb%8b%a4%eb%93%9c%eb%8a%94-rba%ea%b0%80-%ea%b8%88%eb%a6%ac%eb%a5%bc-25bp-%ec%9d%b8%ec%83%81%ed%95%b4-4-10%eb%a1%9c-%ec%98%ac%eb%a6%b4\/"},"modified":"2026-03-16T13:46:08","modified_gmt":"2026-03-16T13:46:08","slug":"bbh%ec%9d%98-%ec%97%98%eb%a6%ac%ec%95%84%ec%8a%a4-%ed%95%98%eb%8b%a4%eb%93%9c%eb%8a%94-rba%ea%b0%80-%ea%b8%88%eb%a6%ac%eb%a5%bc-25bp-%ec%9d%b8%ec%83%81%ed%95%b4-4-10%eb%a1%9c-%ec%98%ac%eb%a6%b4","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/live-updates\/bbh%ec%9d%98-%ec%97%98%eb%a6%ac%ec%95%84%ec%8a%a4-%ed%95%98%eb%8b%a4%eb%93%9c%eb%8a%94-rba%ea%b0%80-%ea%b8%88%eb%a6%ac%eb%a5%bc-25bp-%ec%9d%b8%ec%83%81%ed%95%b4-4-10%eb%a1%9c-%ec%98%ac%eb%a6%b4\/","title":{"rendered":"BBH\uc758 \uc5d8\ub9ac\uc544\uc2a4 \ud558\ub2e4\ub4dc\ub294 RBA\uac00 \uae08\ub9ac\ub97c 25bp \uc778\uc0c1\ud574 4.10%\ub85c \uc62c\ub9b4 \uc218 \uc788\uc73c\uba70, \uc120\ubb3c\uc2dc\uc7a5\uc740 \uc778\uc0c1 \uac00\ub2a5\uc131\uc744 \uc18c\ud3ed \ub354 \ub192\uac8c \ubc18\uc601\ud558\uace0 \uc788\ub2e4\uace0 \ub9d0\ud588\ub2e4."},"content":{"rendered":"\ube0c\ub77c\uc6b4 \ube0c\ub77c\ub354\uc2a4 \ud574\ub9ac\uba3c(Brown Brothers Harriman)\uc758 \uc5d8\ub9ac\uc544\uc2a4 \ud558\ub2e4\ub4dc(Elias Haddad)\ub294 \ud638\uc8fc\uc911\uc559\uc740\ud589(Reserve Bank of Australia, RBA)\uc774 **\ud604\uae08\uae08\ub9ac \ubaa9\ud45c(cash rate target)**\ub97c 25bp(\ubca0\uc774\uc2dc\uc2a4 \ud3ec\uc778\ud2b8, 0.25%\ud3ec\uc778\ud2b8) \uc62c\ub824 **4.10%**\ub85c \ub9cc\ub4e4 \uac83\uc73c\ub85c \ubcf8\ub2e4. \uc774\ub294 \ub450 \ubc88 \uc5f0\uc18d \ud68c\uc758\uc5d0\uc11c\uc758 \uc778\uc0c1 \uc804\ub9dd\uc774\ub2e4. \ub2e4\ub9cc \uacb0\uc815\uc740 **\uc544\uc2ac\uc544\uc2ac\ud55c \uc0c1\ud669(close call, \uacb0\uc815\uc774 \ub9e4\uc6b0 \ud33d\ud33d\ud568)**\uc73c\ub85c \ubb18\uc0ac\ub418\uba70, **\ud604\uae08\uae08\ub9ac \uc120\ubb3c(cash rate futures, \uae30\uc900\uae08\ub9ac \uc218\uc900\uc744 \ubc18\uc601\ud558\ub294 \uc120\ubb3c \uac70\ub798)**\uc740 \uc778\uc0c1 \ud655\ub960\uc744 **53%**\ub85c \uc2dc\uc0ac\ud55c\ub2e4.\n\n**4.10% \uc778\uc0c1**\uc774 \uae30\ubcf8 \uc2dc\ub098\ub9ac\uc624(base case, \uac00\uc7a5 \uac00\ub2a5\uc131\uc774 \ub192\ub2e4\uace0 \ubcf4\ub294 \uc2dc\ub098\ub9ac\uc624)\ub85c \uc81c\uc2dc\ub418\uba70, RBA\uac00 **\uae34\ucd95(tightens policy, \uae08\ub9ac\ub97c \uc62c\ub9ac\uac70\ub098 \uc720\ub3d9\uc131\uc744 \uc904\uc5ec \ubb3c\uac00\ub97c \uc7a1\ub294 \uc815\ucc45)**\uc5d0 \ub098\uc11c\uba74 **\ud638\uc8fc\ub2ec\ub7ec(Australian Dollar)**\uac00 \uc9c0\uc9c0(\uac00\uce58\uac00 \ubc84\ud2f0\uac70\ub098 \uac15\ud574\uc9d0)\ub420 \uc218 \uc788\ub2e4\uace0 \ubcf8\ub2e4. \ubc30\uacbd\uc740 \uad6d\ub0b4 **\uc778\ud50c\ub808\uc774\uc158(\ubb3c\uac00 \uc0c1\uc2b9)**\uc774 \uc5ec\uc804\ud788 \ub192\ub2e4\ub294 \uc810\uc774\ub2e4.\n\n<h3>Rba Decision Outlook<\/h3>\n\ud638\uc8fc\uc758 **\ud5e4\ub4dc\ub77c\uc778(\uc804\uccb4) \uc778\ud50c\ub808\uc774\uc158(headline inflation, \uc804\uccb4 \ud488\ubaa9\uc744 \ud3ec\ud568\ud55c \ubb3c\uac00\uc0c1\uc2b9\ub960)**\uc740 **\uc5d0\ub108\uc9c0 \ucda9\uaca9(energy shock, \uc5d0\ub108\uc9c0 \uac00\uaca9 \uae09\ub4f1 \uac19\uc740 \uc678\ubd80 \ucda9\uaca9)**\uc774 \ubc18\uc601\ub418\uae30 \uc804\ubd80\ud130 \uc804\ub144 \ub300\ube44 **3.8%**\ub85c \ubcf4\uace0\ub41c\ub2e4. RBA\uc758 \ub0b4\ubd80 \ubaa8\ub378\uc740 **\uc0b0\ucd9c\uac2d(output gap, \uc2e4\uc81c \uacbd\uc81c \uc0dd\uc0b0\uc774 \uc7a0\uc7ac \uc0dd\uc0b0\ubcf4\ub2e4 \uc5bc\ub9c8\ub098 \ub192\uac70\ub098 \ub0ae\uc740\uc9c0)**\uc774 **\ud50c\ub7ec\uc2a4(positive, \uacbd\uc81c\uac00 \uacfc\uc5f4 \ucabd)**\ub77c\uace0 \ubcf4\uba70, \uc774\ub294 **\uacf5\uae09 \uc5ec\ub825(capacity, \uae30\uc5c5\u00b7\ub178\ub3d9\uc2dc\uc7a5\uc774 \ub354 \uc0dd\uc0b0\ud560 \uc218 \uc788\ub294 \uc5ec\uc720)**\uc774 \uc904\uc5b4\ub4e0 \uc0c1\ud0dc, \uc989 **\uc81c\uc57d(constraints, \ubcd1\ubaa9\/\ud55c\uacc4)**\uacfc \uc5f0\uacb0\ub41c\ub2e4\uace0 \ud55c\ub2e4.\n\n\uc5f0\uc18d \uae08\ub9ac \uc778\uc0c1\uc73c\ub85c 4.10%\uc5d0 \ub3c4\ub2ec\ud560 \uac00\ub2a5\uc131\uc774 \ud06c\ub2e4\uace0 \ubcf4\uc9c0\ub9cc, \uc774\ub294 \ub9e4\uc6b0 \ud33d\ud33d\ud55c \ud310\ub2e8\uc774\ub2e4. \ud604\uae08\uae08\ub9ac \uc120\ubb3c \uc2dc\uc7a5 \uac00\uaca9\uc740 RBA\uac00 **25bp** \uc778\uc0c1\ud560 \ud655\ub960\uc744 **53%**\ub85c \ubc18\uc601\ud55c\ub2e4. \uc6b0\ub9ac\ub294 \uc778\uc0c1\uc774 \ud638\uc8fc\ub2ec\ub7ec\uc5d0 \ud544\uc694\ud55c \uc9c0\uc9c0 \ud6a8\uacfc\ub97c \uc904 \uc218 \uc788\ub2e4\uace0 \ubcf8\ub2e4.\n\n\uc774 \uc0c1\ud669\uc740 2025\ub144 \uc911\ubc18, \ub192\uc740 \ubb3c\uac00\uac00 \uc815\ucc45\uc758 \ud575\uc2ec \ub3d9\uc778\uc774\uc5c8\ub358 \ub54c\uc640 \ube44\uc2b7\ud558\ub2e4. \ud604\uc7ac \ub370\uc774\ud130\ub97c \ubcf4\uba74, \ucd5c\uadfc \ubd84\uae30 \uc218\uce58\uc5d0\uc11c \ud5e4\ub4dc\ub77c\uc778 \uc778\ud50c\ub808\uc774\uc158\uc740 \uc804\ub144 \ub300\ube44 **3.6%**\ub85c \uc27d\uac8c \ub0b4\ub824\uc624\uc9c0 \uc54a\uace0 \uc788\uc73c\uba70, \uc774\ub294 RBA\uc758 **\ubaa9\ud45c \ubc94\uc704(target range, \uc911\uc559\uc740\ud589\uc774 \ubc14\ub78c\uc9c1\ud558\ub2e4\uace0 \ubcf4\ub294 \ubb3c\uac00 \uad6c\uac04)**\ub97c \ud06c\uac8c \uc6c3\ub3c8\ub2e4. \ud2b9\ud788 **\uc11c\ube44\uc2a4 \ubb3c\uac00(services, \uc11c\ube44\uc2a4 \ubd80\ubb38\uc758 \uac00\uaca9)**\uc5d0\uc11c \uc774\uc5b4\uc9c0\ub294 \uac00\uaca9 \uc555\ub825\uc740 \uc911\uc559\uc740\ud589\uc774 \ub2e4\uc2dc \ud589\ub3d9\ud574\uc57c \ud55c\ub2e4\ub294 \uadfc\uac70\uac00 \ub41c\ub2e4.\n\n<h3>Trading And Positioning Ideas<\/h3>\n\ud558\uc9c0\ub9cc \uc120\ubb3c \uc2dc\uc7a5\uc740 \ub2e4\uc74c \ud68c\uc758\uc5d0\uc11c \uc778\uc0c1 \uac00\ub2a5\uc131\uc744 \ub0ae\uac8c \ubcf4\uace0, \ub2e4\uc218 \ucc38\uc5ec\uc790\ub294 **\uae34 \ub3d9\uacb0(prolonged pause, \uae08\ub9ac\ub97c \ud55c\ub3d9\uc548 \uadf8\ub300\ub85c \ub450\ub294 \uac83)**\uc744 \uc608\uc0c1\ud55c\ub2e4. \uc9c0\uc18d\uc801\uc778 \ubb3c\uac00\uc640 \uc2dc\uc7a5 \uae30\ub300\uc758 \ucc28\uc774\ub294 \uae30\ud68c\uac00 \ub420 \uc218 \uc788\ub2e4. \uc2dc\uc7a5\uc740 RBA\uc758 \ubb3c\uac00 \ub300\uc751 \uc758\uc9c0\ub97c \uacfc\uc18c\ud3c9\uac00\ud558\ub294 \ub4ef\ud558\uba70, \uc774\ub294 \uc791\ub144\uc758 \uc911\uc694\ud55c \uc2dc\uc810\ub4e4\uacfc \ube44\uc2b7\ud558\ub2e4.\n\n\uc778\uc0c1\uc774 \uc2dc\uc7a5 \uc608\uc0c1\ubcf4\ub2e4 \ub354 \uac00\ub2a5\uc131\uc774 \ud06c\ub2e4\uace0 \ubcf4\ub294 \ud2b8\ub808\uc774\ub354\ub77c\uba74, \ub2e8\uae30 **AUD \ucf5c\uc635\uc158(call options, \ud2b9\uc815 \uac00\uaca9\uc5d0 \uc0b4 \uc218 \uc788\ub294 \uad8c\ub9ac)** \ub9e4\uc218\ub294 **\uc190\uc2e4\uc774 \uc81c\ud55c\ub41c(defined-risk, \ucd5c\ub300 \uc190\uc2e4\uc774 \ud504\ub9ac\ubbf8\uc5c4\uc73c\ub85c \uc81c\ud55c\ub428)** \ubc29\uc2dd\uc73c\ub85c \uac15\ud55c \ud1b5\ud654\uc5d0 \ubca0\ud305\ud560 \uc218 \uc788\ub2e4. RBA\uac00 **\ub9e4\ud30c\uc801(hawkish, \uae08\ub9ac \uc778\uc0c1\uc5d0 \ub354 \uc801\uadf9\uc801)**\uc778 \uae5c\uc9dd \uacb0\uc815\uc744 \ub0b4\ub9ac\uba74 \uc0c1\uc2b9\ubd84\uc744 \ub178\ub9b4 \uc218 \uc788\ub2e4. **\uc678\uac00\uaca9(out-of-the-money, \ud604\uc7ac \uac00\uaca9\uc5d0\uc11c \uba40\uc5b4\uc9c4 \ud589\uc0ac\uac00)**\uc758 AUD **\ud48b\uc635\uc158(put options, \ud2b9\uc815 \uac00\uaca9\uc5d0 \ud314 \uc218 \uc788\ub294 \uad8c\ub9ac)**\uc744 \ub9e4\ub3c4\ud574 **\ud504\ub9ac\ubbf8\uc5c4(premium, \uc635\uc158 \uac00\uaca9\/\ubc1b\ub294 \ub3c8)**\uc744 \ubc1b\ub294 \uc804\ub7b5\ub3c4 \uc788\ub2e4. \uc774\ub294 \ud1b5\ud654 \ud558\ub77d \ud3ed\uc774 \uc81c\ud55c\uc801\uc774\ub77c\uace0 \ubcf4\ub294 \uad00\uc810\uc5d0 \uae30\ubc18\ud55c\ub2e4.\n\n\uc774\ubc88\uc774 \ud33d\ud33d\ud55c \ud310\ub2e8\uc774\ub77c\uba74, RBA \ud68c\uc758\ub97c \uc55e\ub450\uace0 AUD\uc758 **\ub0b4\uc7ac \ubcc0\ub3d9\uc131(implied volatility, \uc635\uc158 \uac00\uaca9\uc5d0 \ubc18\uc601\ub41c \uc2dc\uc7a5\uc758 \ubcc0\ub3d9 \uc608\uc0c1\uce58)**\uc774 \uc624\ub97c \uc218 \uc788\ub2e4. **\ub871 \uc2a4\ud2b8\ub798\ub4e4(long straddle, \uac19\uc740 \ud589\uc0ac\uac00\u00b7\ub9cc\uae30\uc758 \ucf5c\uacfc \ud48b\uc744 \ud568\uaed8 \ub9e4\uc218)**\uc740 \ud6a8\uacfc\uc801\uc77c \uc218 \uc788\ub2e4. \uc774\ub294 \uae08\ub9ac \uc778\uc0c1 \uae5c\uc9dd \uacb0\uc815\uc774\ub098 \uc608\uc0c1\ubcf4\ub2e4 **\ube44\ub458\uae30\ud30c\uc801(dovish, \uae08\ub9ac \uc778\uc0c1\uc5d0 \uc2e0\uc911\ud558\uac70\ub098 \uc644\ud654\uc801)**\uc778 \ubc1c\uc5b8 \ub4f1\uc73c\ub85c \uc5b4\ub290 \ucabd\uc774\ub4e0 \ud070 \uac00\uaca9 \ubcc0\ub3d9\uc774 \ub098\uc624\uba74 \uc774\uc775\uc744 \ubcfc \uc218 \uc788\ub294 \ud3ec\uc9c0\uc158\uc774\ub2e4.\n\n\ud2b8\ub808\uc774\ub354\ub294 **\uae08\ub9ac \uc120\ubb3c(interest rate futures, \ubbf8\ub798 \uae08\ub9ac \uc218\uc900\uc5d0 \uc5f0\ub3d9\ub418\ub294 \uc120\ubb3c)**\ub85c RBA\uc758 \uacbd\ub85c\uc5d0 \ub300\ud55c \uacac\ud574\ub97c \ud45c\ud604\ud560 \uc218\ub3c4 \uc788\ub2e4. \ub9e4\ud30c\uc801 \uae5c\uc9dd \uacb0\uc815\uc774 \ub098\uc62c \uac83\uc73c\ub85c \uc608\uc0c1\ud55c\ub2e4\uba74, **\ud638\uc8fc 3\ub144\ubb3c \uad6d\ucc44 \uc120\ubb3c(Australian 3-year government bond futures)**\uc744 **\uc20f(shorting, \ub9e4\ub3c4 \ud3ec\uc9c0\uc158\uc744 \uc7a1\ub294 \uac83)**\ud558\ub294 \uac83\uc774 **\uc218\uc775\ub960(yields, \ucc44\uad8c \uae08\ub9ac)** \uc0c1\uc2b9\uc5d0 \uc9c1\uc811 \ubca0\ud305\ud558\ub294 \ubc29\ubc95\uc774\ub2e4. \uc911\uc559\uc740\ud589\uc774 \uc2dc\uc7a5\uc774 \uc608\uc0c1\ud558\ub294 \uac83\ubcf4\ub2e4 \uae08\ub9ac\ub97c **\ub354 \ub192\uac8c, \ub354 \uc624\ub798(higher for longer, \uace0\uae08\ub9ac\ub97c \uc7a5\uae30\uac04 \uc720\uc9c0)** \uac00\uc838\uac00\uc57c \ud55c\ub2e4\uace0 \uc2dc\uc0ac\ud558\uba74 \uc774 \ud3ec\uc9c0\uc158\uc740 \uc774\uc775\uc744 \ubcfc \uc218 \uc788\ub2e4.\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph-->\n<p><b>VT Markets \ub77c\uc774\ube0c \uacc4\uc815\uc744 \ub9cc\ub4e4\uace0 \uc9c0\uae08 \ubc14\ub85c <a href=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr\/trade-now\/\">\uac70\ub798<\/a>\ub97c \uc2dc\uc791\ud558\uc138\uc694.<\/b><\/p>\n<!-- \/wp:post-content -->","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>\ud638\uc8fc\ub2ec\ub7ec \ud5a5\ubc29\uc740 RBA\uc5d0 \ub2ec\ub838\ub2e4: BBH \uc5d8\ub9ac\uc544\uc2a4 \ud558\ub2e4\ub4dc\ub294 2\ud68c \uc5f0\uc18d 25bp \uc778\uc0c1\uc73c\ub85c \uae08\ub9ac 4.10% \uc804\ub9dd. \uc778\ud50c\ub808 3.6~3.8%\uc640 53% \ud655\ub960, \uc635\uc158\u00b7\uc120\ubb3c \uc804\ub7b5 \uc81c\uc2dc. &#8211; vtmarkets.com<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":103,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-41213","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/41213","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/103"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=41213"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/41213\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=41213"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=41213"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=41213"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}