{"id":41207,"date":"2026-03-16T13:44:09","date_gmt":"2026-03-16T13:44:09","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr\/uncategorized\/bbh%ec%9d%98-%ec%97%98%eb%a6%ac%ec%95%84%ec%8a%a4-%ed%95%98%eb%8b%a4%eb%93%9c-rba-%ea%b8%b0%ec%a4%80%ea%b8%88%eb%a6%ac-25bp-%ec%9d%b8%ec%83%81%ed%95%b4-4-10-%eb%90%a0-%ec%88%98%eb%8f%84\/"},"modified":"2026-03-16T13:44:09","modified_gmt":"2026-03-16T13:44:09","slug":"bbh%ec%9d%98-%ec%97%98%eb%a6%ac%ec%95%84%ec%8a%a4-%ed%95%98%eb%8b%a4%eb%93%9c-rba-%ea%b8%b0%ec%a4%80%ea%b8%88%eb%a6%ac-25bp-%ec%9d%b8%ec%83%81%ed%95%b4-4-10-%eb%90%a0-%ec%88%98%eb%8f%84","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/live-updates\/bbh%ec%9d%98-%ec%97%98%eb%a6%ac%ec%95%84%ec%8a%a4-%ed%95%98%eb%8b%a4%eb%93%9c-rba-%ea%b8%b0%ec%a4%80%ea%b8%88%eb%a6%ac-25bp-%ec%9d%b8%ec%83%81%ed%95%b4-4-10-%eb%90%a0-%ec%88%98%eb%8f%84\/","title":{"rendered":"BBH\uc758 \uc5d8\ub9ac\uc544\uc2a4 \ud558\ub2e4\ub4dc \u201cRBA, \uae30\uc900\uae08\ub9ac 25bp \uc778\uc0c1\ud574 4.10% \ub420 \uc218\ub3c4\u2026\uc120\ubb3c\uc2dc\uc7a5, \uc778\uc0c1 \uac00\ub2a5\uc131 \uc18c\ud3ed \uc6b0\uc704\u201d"},"content":{"rendered":"\ube0c\ub77c\uc6b4 \ube0c\ub77c\ub354\uc2a4 \ud574\ub9ac\uba3c(Brown Brothers Harriman)\uc758 \uc5d8\ub9ac\uc544\uc2a4 \ud558\ub2e4\ub4dc(Elias Haddad)\ub294 \ud638\uc8fc\uc911\uc559\uc740\ud589(RBA\u00b7Reserve Bank of Australia)\uc774 \ub450 \ucc28\ub840 \uc5f0\uc18d\uc73c\ub85c \uae30\uc900\uae08\ub9ac \ubaa9\ud45c\uce58(\ud604\uae08\uae08\ub9ac \ubaa9\ud45c\u00b7cash rate target)\ub97c 25bp(\ubca0\uc774\uc2dc\uc2a4\ud3ec\uc778\ud2b8\u00b70.25%\ud3ec\uc778\ud2b8) \uc778\uc0c1\ud574 4.10%\ub85c \uc62c\ub9b4 \uac83\uc73c\ub85c \uc608\uc0c1\ud588\ub2e4. \ub2e4\ub9cc \uc774\ubc88 \uacb0\uc815\uc740 \u2018\ubc15\ube59\u2019\uc73c\ub85c \ud3c9\uac00\ub418\uba70, \ud604\uae08\uae08\ub9ac \uc120\ubb3c(cash rate futures\u00b7\ud5a5\ud6c4 \uae30\uc900\uae08\ub9ac \uc218\uc900\uc744 \ubc18\uc601\ud558\ub294 \ud30c\uc0dd\uc0c1\ud488)\uc740 \uae08\ub9ac \uc778\uc0c1 \ud655\ub960\uc744 53%\ub85c \uc2dc\uc0ac\ud55c\ub2e4.\n\n\uae30\uc900 \uc2dc\ub098\ub9ac\uc624(\uac00\uc7a5 \uac00\ub2a5\uc131\uc774 \ud070 \uc804\ub9dd)\ub294 4.10% \uc778\uc0c1\uc73c\ub85c \uc81c\uc2dc\ub410\uace0, RBA\uac00 \ud1b5\ud654\uc815\ucc45 \uae34\ucd95(\uae08\ub9ac \uc778\uc0c1 \ub4f1\uc73c\ub85c \uc218\uc694\ub97c \uc5b5\uc81c\ud558\ub294 \uc870\uce58)\uc5d0 \ub098\uc124 \uacbd\uc6b0 \ud638\uc8fc\ub2ec\ub7ec(AUD)\uac00 \uc9c0\uc9c0(\ud558\ub77d \uc555\ub825\uc774 \uc644\ud654\ub418\uac70\ub098 \uc0c1\uc2b9 \uc694\uc778\uc774 \uc0dd\uae40)\ub97c \ubc1b\uc744 \uac83\uc73c\ub85c \uc804\ub9dd\ub410\ub2e4. \ubc30\uacbd\uc73c\ub85c\ub294 \uad6d\ub0b4 \uc778\ud50c\ub808\uc774\uc158(\ubb3c\uac00 \uc0c1\uc2b9\ub960)\uc774 \uc5ec\uc804\ud788 \ub192\uc740 \uc810\uc774 \uac70\ub860\ub410\ub2e4.\n\n<h3>Rba Decision Outlook<\/h3>\n\ud638\uc8fc\uc758 \ud5e4\ub4dc\ub77c\uc778 \uc778\ud50c\ub808\uc774\uc158(\uc804\uccb4 \uc18c\ube44\uc790\ubb3c\uac00 \uc0c1\uc2b9\ub960)\uc740 \uc5d0\ub108\uc9c0 \ucda9\uaca9(\uc5d0\ub108\uc9c0 \uac00\uaca9 \uae09\ub4f1\uc73c\ub85c \ubb3c\uac00\uac00 \ucd94\uac00\ub85c \uc624\ub974\ub294 \uc0c1\ud669)\uc774 \ubcf8\uaca9\ud654\ub418\uae30 \uc804\uc784\uc5d0\ub3c4 \uc804\ub144 \ub300\ube44 3.8%\ub85c \uc804\ud574\uc84c\ub2e4. RBA \ub0b4\ubd80 \ubaa8\ud615(\uacbd\uc81c \ubcc0\uc218\ub97c \ub123\uc5b4 \uacbd\uae30\uc640 \ubb3c\uac00\ub97c \ucd94\uc815\ud558\ub294 \ubd84\uc11d \ub3c4\uad6c)\uc740 \ud50c\ub7ec\uc2a4 \uc0b0\ucd9c\uac2d(\uc2e4\uc81c \uc0dd\uc0b0\uc774 \uc7a0\uc7ac \uc0dd\uc0b0\uc744 \uc6c3\ub3c4\ub294 \uc0c1\ud0dc\ub85c, \uc218\uc694\uac00 \uacf5\uae09 \ub2a5\ub825\uc744 \ucd08\uacfc\ud574 \ubb3c\uac00 \uc555\ub825\uc774 \ucee4\uc9c8 \uc218 \uc788\uc74c)\uc744 \ubcf4\uc5ec\uc8fc\ub294 \uac83\uc73c\ub85c \uc54c\ub824\uc84c\uc73c\uba70, \uc774\ub294 \ub354 \ube61\ube61\ud574\uc9c4 \uc0dd\uc0b0\ub2a5\ub825 \uc81c\uc57d(\uacf5\uae09 \uc5ec\ub825 \ubd80\uc871)\uacfc \uc5f0\uad00\ub41c\ub2e4\uace0 \uc124\uba85\ub410\ub2e4.\n\n\ub450 \ud68c\uc758 \uc5f0\uc18d\uc73c\ub85c \uae30\uc900\uae08\ub9ac(\ud604\uae08\uae08\ub9ac \ubaa9\ud45c)\ub97c 4.10%\ub85c \uc62c\ub9b4 \uac00\ub2a5\uc131\uc774 \ub192\uc544 \ubcf4\uc774\uc9c0\ub9cc, \uc774\ubc88 \uacb0\uc815\uc740 \ubc15\ube59\uc73c\ub85c \ud310\ub2e8\ub41c\ub2e4. \ud604\uae08\uae08\ub9ac \uc120\ubb3c \uc2dc\uc7a5 \uac00\uaca9\uc740 \ud638\uc8fc\uc911\uc559\uc740\ud589\uc774 25bp \uc778\uc0c1\ud560 \ud655\ub960\uc744 53%\ub85c \ubc18\uc601\ud55c\ub2e4. \uae08\ub9ac \uc778\uc0c1\uc740 \ud638\uc8fc\ub2ec\ub7ec\uc5d0 \ud544\uc694\ud55c \ubc29\uc5b4\uc801 \uc9c0\uc9c0 \uc694\uc778\uc774 \ub420 \uc218 \uc788\ub2e4\ub294 \uacac\ud574\ub2e4.\n\n\uc774\ubc88 \uad6d\uba74\uc740 2025\ub144 \uc911\ubc18 \uace0\ubb3c\uac00\uac00 \uc815\ucc45(\uae08\ub9ac \uacb0\uc815)\uc758 \ud575\uc2ec \ub3d9\uc778\uc774\uc5c8\ub358 \uc2dc\uae30\uc640 \uc720\uc0ac\ud558\ub2e4\ub294 \ud3c9\uac00\ub2e4. \ucd5c\uadfc \ubd84\uae30(3\uac1c\uc6d4) \uc9c0\ud45c\ub97c \ubcf4\uba74 \ud5e4\ub4dc\ub77c\uc778 \ubb3c\uac00\uc0c1\uc2b9\ub960\uc774 \uc804\ub144 \ub300\ube44 3.6%\ub85c \uc644\uace0\ud558\uac8c \ub192\uc740 \uc218\uc900\uc744 \uc720\uc9c0\ud558\uace0 \uc788\uc73c\uba70, \uc774\ub294 RBA \ubaa9\ud45c \ubc94\uc704(\uc608\uc0c1 \ubb3c\uac00\uc0c1\uc2b9\ub960\uc744 2~3%\ub85c \uc720\ub3c4\ud558\ub824\ub294 \uc815\ucc45 \ubaa9\ud45c)\ub97c \ud06c\uac8c \uc6c3\ub3c8\ub2e4. \ud2b9\ud788 \uc11c\ube44\uc2a4 \ubb3c\uac00(\uc784\uae08\u00b7\uc784\ub300\ub8cc \ub4f1\uc73c\ub85c \ub048\uc801\ud558\uac8c \uc624\ub974\ub294 \uacbd\ud5a5)\uc758 \uc9c0\uc18d\uc801 \uc555\ub825\uc774 \uc911\uc559\uc740\ud589\uc758 \ucd94\uac00 \ub300\uc751 \ud544\uc694\uc131\uc744 \ub4b7\ubc1b\uce68\ud55c\ub2e4.\n\n<h3>Trading And Positioning Ideas<\/h3>\n\ubc18\uba74 \uc120\ubb3c \uc2dc\uc7a5\uc740 \ub2e4\uc74c \ud68c\uc758\uc5d0\uc11c \uae08\ub9ac \uc778\uc0c1 \uac00\ub2a5\uc131\uc744 \uc81c\ud55c\uc801\uc73c\ub85c\ub9cc \ubc18\uc601\ud558\uace0, \uc2dc\uc7a5 \ucc38\uac00\uc790 \ub2e4\uc218\ub294 \uc7a5\uae30 \ub3d9\uacb0(\uae08\ub9ac\ub97c \uc624\ub7ab\ub3d9\uc548 \uadf8\ub300\ub85c \ub450\ub294 \uc804\ub9dd)\uc744 \uc608\uc0c1\ud558\uace0 \uc788\ub2e4. \uc774\ub7f0 \uad34\ub9ac(\uc2e4\uc81c \ubb3c\uac00 \ud750\ub984\uacfc \uc2dc\uc7a5 \uae30\ub300\uc758 \ubd88\uc77c\uce58)\ub294 \uae30\ud68c\uac00 \ub420 \uc218 \uc788\ub2e4. \uc2dc\uc7a5\uc774 RBA\uc758 \uc778\ud50c\ub808\uc774\uc158 \ub300\uc751 \uc758\uc9c0(\ubb3c\uac00\ub97c \uc7a1\uae30 \uc704\ud574 \ub354 \ub192\uc740 \uae08\ub9ac\ub97c \uc720\uc9c0\ud558\uac70\ub098 \ucd94\uac00 \uc778\uc0c1\ud560 \uc758\uc9c0)\ub97c \uacfc\uc18c\ud3c9\uac00\ud558\uace0 \uc788\ub2e4\ub294 \ud574\uc11d\uc774\ub2e4.\n\n\uae08\ub9ac \uc778\uc0c1\uc774 \uc2dc\uc7a5\uc774 \ubcf4\ub294 \uac83\ubcf4\ub2e4 \ub354 \uc720\ub825\ud558\ub2e4\uace0 \ud310\ub2e8\ud558\ub294 \ud22c\uc790\uc790\ub77c\uba74, \ub2e8\uae30 \ud638\uc8fc\ub2ec\ub7ec \ucf5c\uc635\uc158(AUD call option\u00b7\uc815\ud574\uc9c4 \uac00\uaca9\uc5d0 \ud638\uc8fc\ub2ec\ub7ec\ub97c \uc0b4 \uc218 \uc788\ub294 \uad8c\ub9ac)\uc744 \ub9e4\uc218\ud558\ub294 \ubc29\uc2dd\uc774 \uc190\uc2e4 \ud55c\ub3c4\ub97c \ud1b5\uc81c\ud558\ub294(\uc815\uc758\ub41c \uc704\ud5d8\u00b7defined-risk) \ud3ec\uc9c0\uc158 \uc804\ub7b5\uc774 \ub420 \uc218 \uc788\ub2e4. \uc774\ub294 RBA\uac00 \ub9e4\ud30c\uc801(\ubb3c\uac00 \uc5b5\uc81c\ub97c \uc704\ud574 \uae08\ub9ac\ub97c \ub354 \uc62c\ub9ac\uac70\ub098 \uc624\ub798 \uc720\uc9c0\ud558\uaca0\ub2e4\ub294 \uc131\ud5a5) \u2018\uc11c\ud504\ub77c\uc774\uc988\u2019\ub97c \ub0b4\ub193\uc744 \ub54c \ud638\uc8fc\ub2ec\ub7ec \uac15\uc138\uc5d0 \ub530\ub978 \uc774\uc775 \uac00\ub2a5\uc131\uc744 \ub178\ub9b0\ub2e4. \uc678\uac00\uaca9(out-of-the-money\u00b7\ud604\uc7ac \uac00\uaca9\ubcf4\ub2e4 \ubd88\ub9ac\ud55c \ud589\uc0ac\uac00) \ud638\uc8fc\ub2ec\ub7ec \ud48b\uc635\uc158(AUD put option\u00b7\uc815\ud574\uc9c4 \uac00\uaca9\uc5d0 \ud314 \uc218 \uc788\ub294 \uad8c\ub9ac)\uc744 \ub9e4\ub3c4\ud574 \ud504\ub9ac\ubbf8\uc5c4(\uc635\uc158 \uac00\uaca9)\uc744 \ubc1b\ub294 \uc804\ub7b5\ub3c4 \uc81c\uc2dc\ub418\ub294\ub370, \uc774\ub294 \ud1b5\ud654 \ud558\ub77d \uc5ec\uc9c0\uac00 \uc81c\ud55c\uc801\uc774\ub77c\ub294 \uc2dc\uac01\uc5d0 \uae30\ubc18\ud55c\ub2e4.\n\n\uc774\ubc88 \uacb0\uc815\uc774 \ubc15\ube59\uc73c\ub85c \uc5ec\uaca8\uc9c0\ub294 \ub9cc\ud07c, RBA \ud68c\uc758\ub97c \uc55e\ub450\uace0 \ud638\uc8fc\ub2ec\ub7ec \ub0b4\uc7ac\ubcc0\ub3d9\uc131(implied volatility\u00b7\uc635\uc158 \uac00\uaca9\uc5d0 \ubc18\uc601\ub41c \ud5a5\ud6c4 \ubcc0\ub3d9\uc131 \uae30\ub300)\uc774 \uc0c1\uc2b9\ud560 \uac00\ub2a5\uc131\uc774 \uc788\ub2e4. \uac19\uc740 \ud589\uc0ac\uac00\uc640 \ub9cc\uae30\uc758 \ucf5c\uc635\uc158\uacfc \ud48b\uc635\uc158\uc744 \ub3d9\uc2dc\uc5d0 \ub9e4\uc218\ud558\ub294 \ub871 \uc2a4\ud2b8\ub798\ub4e4(long straddle) \uc804\ub7b5\uc740 \uc5b4\ub290 \ubc29\ud5a5\uc774\ub4e0 \ud070 \uac00\uaca9 \ubcc0\ub3d9\uc774 \ubc1c\uc0dd\ud560 \ub54c \uc218\uc775\uc744 \ub178\ub9b4 \uc218 \uc788\ub2e4. \uc989, \uae5c\uc9dd \uc778\uc0c1\uc774\ub098 \uc608\uc0c1\ubcf4\ub2e4 \ube44\ub458\uae30\ud30c\uc801(dovish\u00b7\uae08\ub9ac \uc778\uc0c1\uc5d0 \uc2e0\uc911\ud558\uace0 \uc644\ud654\uc801 \uc131\ud5a5) \ubc1c\uc5b8\uc73c\ub85c \ud070 \uc6c0\uc9c1\uc784\uc774 \ub098\uc624\uba74 \ud6a8\uacfc\uc801\uc77c \uc218 \uc788\ub2e4.\n\n\ud22c\uc790\uc790\ub294 \uae08\ub9ac\uc120\ubb3c(interest rate futures\u00b7\ud5a5\ud6c4 \uae08\ub9ac\/\ucc44\uad8c \uc218\uc775\ub960 \ubcc0\ud654\ub97c \uac70\ub798\ud558\ub294 \ud30c\uc0dd\uc0c1\ud488)\uc744 \ud1b5\ud574 RBA\uc758 \uae08\ub9ac \uacbd\ub85c(\ud5a5\ud6c4 \uc778\uc0c1\u00b7\ub3d9\uacb0\u00b7\uc778\ud558 \ubc29\ud5a5)\uc5d0 \ub300\ud55c \uacac\ud574\ub97c \ud45c\ud604\ud560 \uc218\ub3c4 \uc788\ub2e4. \ub9e4\ud30c\uc801 \uc11c\ud504\ub77c\uc774\uc988\ub97c \uc608\uc0c1\ud55c\ub2e4\uba74, \ud638\uc8fc 3\ub144\ubb3c \uad6d\ucc44\uc120\ubb3c(Australian 3-year government bond futures)\uc744 \ub9e4\ub3c4(\uc20f\u00b7shorting)\ud558\ub294 \uc804\ub7b5\uc774 \uae08\ub9ac \uc0c1\uc2b9(\uc218\uc775\ub960 \uc0c1\uc2b9)\uc5d0 \uc9c1\uc811 \ubca0\ud305\ud558\ub294 \ubc29\ubc95\uc774 \ub41c\ub2e4. \uc774\ub294 \uc911\uc559\uc740\ud589\uc774 \uc2dc\uc7a5\uc774 \ud604\uc7ac \ubc18\uc601\ud558\ub294 \uac83\ubcf4\ub2e4 \ub354 \uc624\ub7ab\ub3d9\uc548 \ub192\uc740 \uae08\ub9ac\ub97c \uc720\uc9c0\ud574\uc57c \ud55c\ub2e4\ub294 \uc2e0\ud638\ub97c \uc904 \uacbd\uc6b0(\u2018higher for longer\u2019) \ucc44\uad8c \uac00\uaca9\uc774 \ud558\ub77d\ud558\uace0 \uc218\uc775\ub960\uc774 \uc624\ub974\ub294 \ud750\ub984\uc5d0\uc11c \uc774\uc775\uc744 \ubcfc \uc218 \uc788\ub2e4.\n<p>\n\n<p><strong>\uc9c0\uae08 \ubc14\ub85c \uac70\ub798\ub97c \uc2dc\uc791\ud558\uc138\uc694 &#8211; VT Markets \uc2e4\uacc4\uc88c\ub97c \uac1c\uc124\ud558\ub824\uba74 <a href=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr\/trade-now\/\">\uc5ec\uae30<\/a>\ub97c \ud074\ub9ad\ud558\uc138\uc694 <\/strong> <\/p>\n<!-- \/wp:post-content -->","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>\u201cRBA \ub610 \uc62c\ub9b0\ub2e4?\u201d 25bp \uc778\uc0c1\ud574 \ud604\uae08\uae08\ub9ac 4.10% \uc804\ub9dd\uc774 \uc6b0\uc138\ud558\uc9c0\ub9cc \ubc15\ube59. \uc120\ubb3c\uc740 \ud655\ub960 53% \ubc18\uc601. \uace0\ubb3c\uac00\u00b7\uc11c\ube44\uc2a4 \ubb3c\uac00 \uc555\ub825\uc5d0 \ud638\uc8fc\ub2ec\ub7ec \uc9c0\uc9c0 \uae30\ub300.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-41207","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/41207","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=41207"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/41207\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=41207"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=41207"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=41207"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}