{"id":41040,"date":"2026-03-14T00:44:31","date_gmt":"2026-03-14T00:44:31","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr\/uncategorized\/%ec%a4%91%eb%8f%99-%ea%b8%b4%ec%9e%a5%ec%9d%b4-%ea%b3%a0%ec%a1%b0%eb%90%98%eb%8a%94-%ea%b0%80%ec%9a%b4%eb%8d%b0-dxy%eb%8a%94-10%ea%b0%9c%ec%9b%94-%eb%a7%8c%ec%9d%98-%ea%b3%a0%ec%a0%90%ec%97%90\/"},"modified":"2026-03-14T00:44:31","modified_gmt":"2026-03-14T00:44:31","slug":"%ec%a4%91%eb%8f%99-%ea%b8%b4%ec%9e%a5%ec%9d%b4-%ea%b3%a0%ec%a1%b0%eb%90%98%eb%8a%94-%ea%b0%80%ec%9a%b4%eb%8d%b0-dxy%eb%8a%94-10%ea%b0%9c%ec%9b%94-%eb%a7%8c%ec%9d%98-%ea%b3%a0%ec%a0%90%ec%97%90","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/live-updates\/%ec%a4%91%eb%8f%99-%ea%b8%b4%ec%9e%a5%ec%9d%b4-%ea%b3%a0%ec%a1%b0%eb%90%98%eb%8a%94-%ea%b0%80%ec%9a%b4%eb%8d%b0-dxy%eb%8a%94-10%ea%b0%9c%ec%9b%94-%eb%a7%8c%ec%9d%98-%ea%b3%a0%ec%a0%90%ec%97%90\/","title":{"rendered":"\uc911\ub3d9 \uae34\uc7a5\uc774 \uace0\uc870\ub418\ub294 \uac00\uc6b4\ub370 DXY\ub294 10\uac1c\uc6d4 \ub9cc\uc758 \uace0\uc810\uc5d0 \uadfc\uc811\ud558\uba70 \uc0c1\uc2b9\ud3ed\uc744 \ud655\ub300, 2\uc8fc \uc5f0\uc18d \uc8fc\uac04 \uc0c1\uc2b9\uc138\ub97c \ud655\uc815"},"content":{"rendered":"\ubbf8\uad6d \ub2ec\ub7ec \uc778\ub371\uc2a4(US Dollar Index, DXY)\ub294 \uae08\uc694\uc77c \uc0c1\uc2b9\ud588\uace0, \uc911\ub3d9 \uae34\uc7a5\uc774 \ub2ec\ub7ec \uc218\uc694\ub97c \ub298\ub9ac\uba74\uc11c 2\uc8fc \uc5f0\uc18d \uc8fc\uac04 \uc0c1\uc2b9\uc744 \uae30\ub85d\ud560 \ud750\ub984\uc774\ub2e4. \uc57d 100.32\uc5d0\uc11c \uac70\ub798\ub410\uc73c\uba70, 2025\ub144 5\uc6d4 \uc774\ud6c4\ub85c \ubcf4\ub358 \uc218\uc900\uc5d0 \uac00\uae5d\ub2e4. \n\n\ubbf8\uad6d-\uc774\ub780 \uc804\uc7c1\uc73c\ub85c \uc2dc\uc7a5\uc758 \uacbd\uacc4\uc2ec\uc774 \ucee4\uc9c0\uba74\uc11c \uc218\uc694\uac00 \ub298\uc5c8\ub2e4. \uc790\uae08\uc774 \uc720\ub3d9\uc131(\ud544\uc694\ud560 \ub54c \ud604\uae08\ucc98\ub7fc \ubc14\ub85c \uc4f8 \uc218 \uc788\ub294 \uc815\ub3c4)\uacfc \u2018\uc548\uc804 \uc790\uc0b0\u2019\uc73c\ub85c \uc778\uc2dd\ub418\ub294 \ub2ec\ub7ec\ub85c \uc774\ub3d9\ud588\ub2e4. \uc774 \uc9c0\uc218\ub294 6\uac1c \uc8fc\uc694 \ud1b5\ud654\ub85c \uc774\ub8e8\uc5b4\uc9c4 \ubc14\uc2a4\ucf13(\uc5ec\ub7ec \ud1b5\ud654\ub97c \ubb36\uc5b4 \ube44\uad50\ud558\ub294 \uad6c\uc131) \ub300\ube44 \ub2ec\ub7ec \uac00\uce58\ub97c \uce21\uc815\ud55c\ub2e4. \n\n

\uc11d\uc720 \uacf5\uae09 \uc704\ud5d8\uacfc \ub2ec\ub7ec \uc9c0\uc9c0<\/h3> \n\ud638\ub974\ubb34\uc988 \ud574\ud611(Strait of Hormuz, \uc8fc\uc694 \uc6d0\uc720 \ud574\uc0c1 \uc6b4\uc1a1\ub85c)\uacfc \uad00\ub828\ub41c \uc11d\uc720 \uacf5\uae09 \uc704\ud5d8\uc774 \uc720\uac00\ub97c \ub04c\uc5b4\uc62c\ub824 \uc778\ud50c\ub808\uc774\uc158(\ubb3c\uac00 \uc804\ubc18\uc758 \uc0c1\uc2b9) \uc6b0\ub824\ub97c \ub354\ud588\ub2e4. \uc804 \uc138\uacc4 \uc11d\uc720 \uac70\ub798\ub294 \ub300\ubd80\ubd84 \ubbf8 \ub2ec\ub7ec\ub85c \uac00\uaca9\uc774 \ub9e4\uaca8\uc9c0\ubbc0\ub85c, \uc5d0\ub108\uc9c0 \uac00\uaca9 \uc0c1\uc2b9\uc740 \ub2ec\ub7ec \uc218\uc694\ub97c \ud0a4\uc6b8 \uc218 \uc788\ub2e4. \n\n\uc5f0\uc900(Federal Reserve, \ubbf8\uad6d \uc911\uc559\uc740\ud589)\uc758 \uae30\uc900\uae08\ub9ac \uc778\ud558 \uae30\ub300\uac00 \uc57d\ud574\uc9c0\uba74\uc11c \ubbf8 \uad6d\ucc44 \uc218\uc775\ub960(\ucc44\uad8c \ubcf4\uc720\ub85c \uc5bb\ub294 \uc774\uc790 \uc218\uc900)\uc774 \uc62c\ub790\uace0, \ub2ec\ub7ec\ub97c \uc9c0\uc9c0\ud588\ub2e4. \ube14\ub8f8\ubc84\uadf8\uc5d0 \ub530\ub974\uba74 \uc2dc\uc7a5\uc740 12\uc6d4\uae4c\uc9c0 \uc57d 20bp(\ubca0\uc774\uc2dc\uc2a4\ud3ec\uc778\ud2b8, 0.01%p) \uc778\ud558\ub97c \ubc18\uc601\ud558\uace0 \uc788\uc73c\uba70, \ubd84\uc7c1 \uc774\uc804\uc5d0 50bp\ub97c \ub118\uac8c \ubcf4\ub358 \uae30\ub300\uc5d0\uc11c \ub0b4\ub824\uc654\ub2e4. \n\n\ub2e4\uc74c \uc8fc \uc5f0\uc900 \ud68c\uc758\ub85c \uad00\uc2ec\uc774 \uc774\ub3d9\ud558\uace0 \uc788\ub2e4. \uc810\ub3c4\ud45c(dot plot, \uc5f0\uc900 \uc704\uc6d0\ub4e4\uc774 \uc608\uc0c1\ud558\ub294 \ud5a5\ud6c4 \uae08\ub9ac \uacbd\ub85c\ub97c \uc810\uc73c\ub85c \ud45c\uc2dc\ud55c \uc790\ub8cc)\uc640 \uacbd\uc81c\uc804\ub9dd\uc694\uc57d(SEP, Summary of Economic Projections: \uc131\uc7a5\u00b7\ubb3c\uac00\u00b7\uc2e4\uc5c5\u00b7\uae08\ub9ac \uc804\ub9dd \ud45c)\uc774 \uc5c5\ub370\uc774\ud2b8\ub420 \uc218 \uc788\ub2e4. \ub2e4\ub9cc \ub2ec\ub7ec\ub294 \uc7a5\uae30\uc801\uc73c\ub85c \ubbf8\uad6d \ubb34\uc5ed \uc815\ucc45, \uc5f0\uc900 \ub3c5\ub9bd\uc131(\uc815\uce58 \uc601\ud5a5 \uc5c6\uc774 \ud1b5\ud654\uc815\ucc45\uc744 \uacb0\uc815\ud558\ub294 \ub2a5\ub825) \uc6b0\ub824, \uc815\ubd80 \ubd80\ucc44 \uc99d\uac00, \uc7ac\uc815 \uc804\ub9dd \ub4f1 \uc555\ub825\uc744 \uacc4\uc18d \ubc1b\ub294\ub2e4. \n\n\ubbf8 \ub2ec\ub7ec \uac15\uc138\uac00 \uc774\uc5b4\uc9c0\ub294 \ub9cc\ud07c, \ubcc0\ub3d9\uc131\uc774 \ub192\uc744 \ub54c \uc774\uc775\uc744 \ub178\ub9ac\ub294 \uc635\uc158 \uc804\ub7b5 \uc218\uc694\uac00 \uc774\uc5b4\uc9c8 \uc218 \uc788\ub2e4. CBOE \ubcc0\ub3d9\uc131 \uc9c0\uc218(VIX, \ubbf8\uad6d \uc8fc\uc2dd\uc2dc\uc7a5\uc758 \u2018\uacf5\ud3ec \uc9c0\uc218\u2019\ub85c \ubd88\ub9ac\ub294 \uae30\ub300 \ubcc0\ub3d9\uc131 \uc9c0\ud45c)\uac00 \ub192\uc740 \uc218\uc900\uc744 \uc720\uc9c0\ud588\uace0, \ucd5c\uadfc 28\uc744 \uc6c3\ub3cc\uc544 2022\ub144 \ucd08 \uc6b0\ud06c\ub77c\uc774\ub098 \uc804\uc7c1 \ubc1c\ubc1c \ub2f9\uc2dc\uc758 \uc2dc\uc7a5 \ubd88\uc548 \uc218\uc900\uc744 \ub5a0\uc62c\ub9ac\uac8c \ud55c\ub2e4. \uc774\ub294 \ubc29\ud5a5\uacfc \ubb34\uad00\ud558\uac8c \ud070 \uac00\uaca9 \ubcc0\ub3d9\uc5d0 \ubca0\ud305\ud558\ub294 \uc804\ub7b5\uc744 \uace0\ub824\ud560 \uc218 \uc788\uc74c\uc744 \ub73b\ud55c\ub2e4. \uc608\ub97c \ub4e4\uc5b4 EUR\/USD \uac19\uc740 \uc8fc\uc694 \ud1b5\ud654\uc30d\uc5d0 \uc2a4\ud2b8\ub798\ub4e4(straddle, \uac19\uc740 \ub9cc\uae30\u00b7\ud589\uc0ac\uac00\uc758 \ucf5c\uacfc \ud48b\uc744 \ub3d9\uc2dc\uc5d0 \ub9e4\uc218)\uc774\ub098 \uc2a4\ud2b8\ub7ad\uae00(strangle, \uc11c\ub85c \ub2e4\ub978 \ud589\uc0ac\uac00\uc758 \ucf5c\uacfc \ud48b\uc744 \ub3d9\uc2dc\uc5d0 \ub9e4\uc218)\uc744 \ub9e4\uc218\ud574 \ud070 \ubcc0\ub3d9\uc744 \ub178\ub9b4 \uc218 \uc788\ub2e4. \n\n

\uc9c1\uc811 \ub2ec\ub7ec \uac70\ub798\uc640 \ud3ec\uc9c0\uc154\ub2dd<\/h3> \n\ub2ec\ub7ec \uac15\uc138\uc5d0 \uc9c1\uc811 \ubca0\ud305\ud558\ub294 \uc804\ub7b5\uc740 \uc5ec\uc804\ud788 \ub9e4\ub825\uc801\uc774\uba70, DXY\ub294 100.00 \uc704\uc5d0\uc11c \uacac\uc870\ud558\ub2e4. \ud5a5\ud6c4 30~60\uc77c \ub9cc\uae30\uc758 \uc678\uac00\uaca9(out-of-the-money, \ud604\uc7ac \uac00\uaca9\uc5d0\uc11c \ub354 \ubd88\ub9ac\ud55c \ud589\uc0ac\uac00\uc758) \ub2ec\ub7ec \uc778\ub371\uc2a4 \ucf5c\uc635\uc158 \ub610\ub294 EUR\/USD \ud48b\uc635\uc158 \ub9e4\uc218\ub97c \uac80\ud1a0\ud558\uace0 \uc788\ub2e4. \ucd5c\uadfc CFTC \ub370\uc774\ud130(CFTC, \ubbf8\uad6d \uc0c1\ud488\uc120\ubb3c\uac70\ub798\uc704\uc6d0\ud68c: \uc120\ubb3c\u00b7\uc635\uc158 \uc2dc\uc7a5 \ud3ec\uc9c0\uc158\uc744 \uacf5\uac1c)\uac00 \uc774\ub97c \ub4b7\ubc1b\uce68\ud558\uba70, \ube44\uc0c1\uc5c5 \ubd80\ubb38(non-commercial, \uc8fc\ub85c \ud5e4\uc9c0 \ubaa9\uc801\uc774 \uc544\ub2cc \ud22c\uae30 \uc131\uaca9\uc758 \ucc38\uc5ec\uc790)\uc758 \ub2ec\ub7ec \uc21c\ub9e4\uc218(net long, \ub9e4\uc218 \ud3ec\uc9c0\uc158\uc774 \ub9e4\ub3c4\ubcf4\ub2e4 \ub9ce\uc740 \uc0c1\ud0dc)\uac00 2025\ub144 3\ubd84\uae30 \uc774\ud6c4 \ucd5c\uace0 \uc218\uc900\uc5d0 \ub3c4\ub2ec\ud588\uc74c\uc744 \ubcf4\uc5ec\uc900\ub2e4. \n\n\uc5f0\uc900\uc758 \uae08\ub9ac \uc778\ud558 \uae30\ub300\uac00 \uc57d\ud574\uc9c4 \uc810\uc740 \uae08\ub9ac \uc120\ubb3c(\ubbf8\ub798 \uae08\ub9ac \uc218\uc900\uc5d0 \ubca0\ud305\ud558\ub294 \ud30c\uc0dd\uc0c1\ud488)\uc5d0\uc11c \uae30\ud68c\uac00 \ub420 \uc218 \uc788\ub2e4. \uc774\ubc88 \uc8fc \uae30\uc900 CME\uc758 FedWatch \ud234(\uc815\ucc45\uae08\ub9ac \uc778\uc0c1\u00b7\ub3d9\uacb0\u00b7\uc778\ud558 \ud655\ub960\uc744 \uc2dc\uc7a5\uac00\uaca9\uc73c\ub85c \uacc4\uc0b0\ud574 \ubcf4\uc5ec\uc8fc\ub294 \ub3c4\uad6c)\uc740 3\ubd84\uae30 \uc774\uc804 \uae08\ub9ac \uc778\ud558 \ud655\ub960\uc744 10% \ubbf8\ub9cc\uc73c\ub85c \ubcf8\ub2e4. \uc774\ub294 \ubd84\uc7c1\uc774 \uaca9\ud654\ub418\uae30 \uc804\uc778 \uc791\ub144 \ub9d0, 75%\ub85c \ubcf4\ub358 \ud655\ub960\uc5d0\uc11c \ud06c\uac8c \ubc14\ub010 \uac83\uc774\ub2e4. \uc5ec\ub984\uae4c\uc9c0 \uc5f0\uc900\uc774 \uae34\ucd95\uc801(\uae08\ub9ac\ub97c \ub192\uac8c \uc720\uc9c0\ud574 \ubb3c\uac00\ub97c \uc7a1\ub294) \uc815\ucc45\uc744 \uc720\uc9c0\ud560 \uac83\uc5d0 \ubca0\ud305\ud558\ub824\uba74 9\uc6d4 SOFR \uc120\ubb3c\uc744 \ub9e4\ub3c4(\uac00\uaca9 \ud558\ub77d\uc5d0 \ubca0\ud305)\ud558\ub294 \ubc29\uc548\uc744 \uace0\ub824\ud560 \uc218 \uc788\ub2e4. SOFR(Secured Overnight Financing Rate, \ub2f4\ubcf4\ubd80 \uc775\uc77c \uc790\uae08\uc870\ub2ec \uae08\ub9ac)\uc740 \ub2ec\ub7ec \ub2e8\uae30\uae08\ub9ac\uc758 \uae30\uc900\uc5d0 \uac00\uae5d\ub2e4. \n\n\uc911\ub3d9\uc758 \uacf5\uae09 \ucc28\uc9c8\ub85c \uc5d0\ub108\uc9c0 \ud30c\uc0dd\uc0c1\ud488(\uc6d0\uc720\u00b7\uac00\uc2a4 \ub4f1 \uac00\uaca9\uc5d0 \uc5f0\ub3d9\ub41c \uc120\ubb3c\u00b7\uc635\uc158 \uac19\uc740 \uc0c1\ud488)\uc774 \ud575\uc2ec \uc774\uc288\uac00 \ub410\ub2e4. 5\uc6d4 \uc778\ub3c4\ubd84 \ube0c\ub80c\ud2b8\uc720 \uc120\ubb3c(Brent crude futures, \ubd81\ud574\uc0b0 \uc6d0\uc720 \uae30\uc900 \uc120\ubb3c)\uc774 \ubc30\ub7f4\ub2f9 115\ub2ec\ub7ec \uc704\uc5d0\uc11c \uc6c0\uc9c1\uc774\ub294 \uc0c1\ud669\uc5d0\uc11c, USO \uac19\uc740 \uc6d0\uc720 ETF(Exchange-Traded Fund, \uac70\ub798\uc18c\uc5d0\uc11c \uc8fc\uc2dd\ucc98\ub7fc \uc0ac\uace0\ud30c\ub294 \ud380\ub4dc)\uc758 \ucf5c\uc635\uc158 \ub9e4\uc218\ub294 \ucd94\uac00 \uc0c1\uc2b9\uc5d0 \ubca0\ud305\ud558\ub294 \uc9c1\uc811\uc801\uc778 \ubc29\ubc95\uc774\ub2e4. \ud638\ub974\ubb34\uc988 \ud574\ud611\uc774 \uc644\uc804\ud788 \ubd09\uc1c4\ub420 \uc704\ud5d8\uc774 \uc2dc\uc7a5\uac00\uaca9\uc5d0 \ucda9\ubd84\ud788 \ubc18\uc601\ub418\uc9c0 \uc54a\uc558\uc744 \uc218 \uc788\uc5b4, \ud06c\uac8c \uc624\ub97c \uc5ec\uc9c0\uac00 \ub0a8\uc544 \uc788\ub2e4. \n\n\ub2ec\ub7ec\uac00 \uac15\ud558\ub354\ub77c\ub3c4, \uc791\ub144 \ub9d0 \uc5b8\uae09\ub41c \uad6c\uc870\uc801 \uc5ed\ud48d(\uc911\uc7a5\uae30\uc801\uc73c\ub85c \ubd88\ub9ac\ud55c \uc694\uc778)\uc744 \ud5e4\uc9c0(\uc704\ud5d8\uc744 \uc904\uc774\uae30 \uc704\ud55c \ubc18\ub300 \ud3ec\uc9c0\uc158)\ud574\uc57c \ud55c\ub2e4. \ubbf8\uad6d \uc7ac\uc815 \uc6b0\ub824\ub85c \ud798\uc744 \uc5bb\ub294 \u2018\uac00\uce58 \ud6fc\uc190(debasement) \uc11c\uc0ac\u2019\ub294 \uae34\uc7a5\uc774 \uc644\ud654\ub418\uba74 \ub2e4\uc2dc \ube60\ub974\uac8c \ub5a0\uc624\ub97c \uc218 \uc788\ub2e4. \uc774\uc5d0 \ub300\ud55c \ubc29\uc5b4\ub85c, \ub2ec\ub7ec\uc5d0 \ub300\ud55c \uc2e0\ub8b0\uac00 \ud754\ub4e4\ub9b4 \ub54c \ubcf4\ud1b5 \uc624\ub974\ub294 \uae08\uc758 \uc7a5\uae30 \ub9cc\uae30 \ucf5c\uc635\uc158\uc744 \uc77c\ubd80 \ub9e4\uc218\ud574 \ubcf4\ud638 \uc7a5\uce58\ub97c \ub354\ud558\uace0 \uc788\ub2e4.\n\n\n

VT Markets \ub77c\uc774\ube0c \uacc4\uc815\uc744 \ub9cc\ub4e4\uace0 \uc9c0\uae08 \ubc14\ub85c \uac70\ub798<\/a>\ub97c \uc2dc\uc791\ud558\uc138\uc694.<\/b><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

\uc911\ub3d9 \uae34\uc7a5 \uace0\uc870\ub85c \uc548\uc804\uc790\uc0b0 \uc218\uc694\uac00 \ucee4\uc9c0\uba70 \ub2ec\ub7ec\uc9c0\uc218(DXY)\uac00 100\uc120 \ud68c\ubcf5, 2\uc8fc \uc5f0\uc18d \uc0c1\uc2b9\uc138. \uc720\uac00\u00b7\uc778\ud50c\ub808 \uc6b0\ub824\uc640 \uae08\ub9ac\uc778\ud558 \uae30\ub300 \ud6c4\ud1f4\uac00 \ub2ec\ub7ec\u00b7\ubcc0\ub3d9\uc131 \uc804\ub7b5(\uc635\uc158\u00b7SOFR\u00b7\uc6d0\uc720\u00b7\uae08)\uae4c\uc9c0 \uc790\uadf9. – vtmarkets.com<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":103,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-41040","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/41040","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/103"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=41040"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/41040\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=41040"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=41040"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=41040"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}