{"id":41023,"date":"2026-03-13T22:45:30","date_gmt":"2026-03-13T22:45:30","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr\/uncategorized\/%ec%9c%84%ed%97%98%ed%9a%8c%ed%94%bc-%ec%8b%ac%eb%a6%ac%ea%b0%80-%eb%af%b8-%eb%8b%ac%eb%9f%ac%eb%a5%bc-%eb%81%8c%ec%96%b4%ec%98%ac%eb%a6%ac%eb%a9%b4%ec%84%9c-gbp-usd%eb%8a%94-4%ea%b1%b0%eb%9e%98\/"},"modified":"2026-03-13T22:45:30","modified_gmt":"2026-03-13T22:45:30","slug":"%ec%9c%84%ed%97%98%ed%9a%8c%ed%94%bc-%ec%8b%ac%eb%a6%ac%ea%b0%80-%eb%af%b8-%eb%8b%ac%eb%9f%ac%eb%a5%bc-%eb%81%8c%ec%96%b4%ec%98%ac%eb%a6%ac%eb%a9%b4%ec%84%9c-gbp-usd%eb%8a%94-4%ea%b1%b0%eb%9e%98","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/live-updates\/%ec%9c%84%ed%97%98%ed%9a%8c%ed%94%bc-%ec%8b%ac%eb%a6%ac%ea%b0%80-%eb%af%b8-%eb%8b%ac%eb%9f%ac%eb%a5%bc-%eb%81%8c%ec%96%b4%ec%98%ac%eb%a6%ac%eb%a9%b4%ec%84%9c-gbp-usd%eb%8a%94-4%ea%b1%b0%eb%9e%98\/","title":{"rendered":"\uc704\ud5d8\ud68c\ud53c \uc2ec\ub9ac\uac00 \ubbf8 \ub2ec\ub7ec\ub97c \ub04c\uc5b4\uc62c\ub9ac\uba74\uc11c GBP\/USD\ub294 4\uac70\ub798\uc77c \uc5f0\uc18d \ud558\ub77d\ud574 12\uc6d4 \ucd5c\uc800 \uc218\uc900\uc73c\ub85c \ub0b4\ub824\uac14\ub2e4."},"content":{"rendered":"GBP\/USD\ub294 1.3240 \ubd80\uadfc\uc5d0\uc11c \uac70\ub798\ub418\uc5c8\uace0, 4\uac70\ub798\uc77c \uc5f0\uc18d \ud558\ub77d\ud558\uba70 2025\ub144 12\uc6d4 3\uc77c \uc774\ud6c4 \ucd5c\uc800 \uc218\uc900\uc744 \uae30\ub85d\ud588\ub2e4. \uc774\ubc88 \uc6c0\uc9c1\uc784\uc740 \ub354 \uac15\ud574\uc9c4 \ubbf8\uad6d \ub2ec\ub7ec(US dollar: \ubbf8\uad6d \ud1b5\ud654)\uc640 \uc704\ud5d8\ud68c\ud53c(risk-off: \ud22c\uc790\uc790\ub4e4\uc774 \uc704\ud5d8\uc790\uc0b0\uc744 \uc904\uc774\uace0 \uc548\uc804\uc790\uc0b0\uc744 \uc120\ud638\ud558\ub294 \ubd84\uc704\uae30) \ud658\uacbd\uacfc \uad00\ub828\uc774 \uc788\uc5c8\ub2e4.\n\n\uc774\ub780 \uc804\uc7c1\uc73c\ub85c \uc720\uac00(oil prices: \uc6d0\uc720 \uac00\uaca9)\uac00 \uc0c1\uc2b9\ud574 \ub2e4\uc74c \uc8fc \uc815\ucc45\ud68c\uc758\ub97c \uc55e\ub450\uace0 \uc778\ud50c\ub808\uc774\uc158(inflation: \ubb3c\uac00\uac00 \uc804\ubc18\uc801\uc73c\ub85c \uc624\ub974\ub294 \ud604\uc0c1) \uc704\ud5d8\uc774 \ucee4\uc84c\ub2e4. \ubbf8\uad6d \uc5f0\ubc29\uc900\ube44\uc81c\ub3c4(Federal Reserve, Fed: \ubbf8\uad6d \uc911\uc559\uc740\ud589)\uc640 \uc601\uad6d \uc911\uc559\uc740\ud589(Bank of England, BoE: \uc601\uad6d \uc911\uc559\uc740\ud589)\uc740 \uae30\uc900\uae08\ub9ac(interest rate: \uc911\uc559\uc740\ud589\uc774 \uc815\ud558\ub294 \ub300\ud45c \uae08\ub9ac) \uacb0\uc815\uc744 \ubc1c\ud45c\ud560 \uc608\uc815\uc774\uba70, Fed\ub294 \uc5c5\ub370\uc774\ud2b8\ub41c \uc810\ub3c4\ud45c(Dot Plot: \uc704\uc6d0\ub4e4\uc774 \uc608\uc0c1\ud558\ub294 \ud5a5\ud6c4 \uae08\ub9ac \uc218\uc900\uc744 \uc810\uc73c\ub85c \ud45c\uc2dc\ud55c \uc790\ub8cc)\ub3c4 \uacf5\uac1c\ud560 \uc608\uc815\uc774\ub2e4.\n\n<h3>Oil Shock And Uk Growth<\/h3>\n\uc77c\ubd80 \uacbd\uc81c\ud559\uc790\ub4e4\uc740 \ubc30\ub7f4\ub2f9 100\ub2ec\ub7ec \uc720\uac00\uac00 \uc5f0\ub8cc\ube44 \uc0c1\uc2b9\uc744 \ud1b5\ud574 \uc601\uad6d \uc18c\ube44\uc790\ubb3c\uac00\uc9c0\uc218(Consumer Price Index, CPI: \uc18c\ube44\uc790\uac00 \uc790\uc8fc \uc0ac\ub294 \uc0c1\ud488\u00b7\uc11c\ube44\uc2a4 \uac00\uaca9\uc744 \ubaa8\uc544 \ub9cc\ub4e0 \ubb3c\uac00\uc9c0\ud45c)\ub97c \uc57d 0.6%p \ub192\uc77c \uc218 \uc788\ub2e4\uace0 \ubcf8\ub2e4. \uc601\uad6d\uc5d0\uc11c\ub294 1\uc6d4 \uc6d4\uac04 GDP(Gross Domestic Product: \uad6d\ub0b4\ucd1d\uc0dd\uc0b0, \ud55c \ub098\ub77c\uc758 \uc0dd\uc0b0 \uaddc\ubaa8)\uac00 \uc804\uc6d4 \ub300\ube44 0%\ub85c, 12\uc6d4 0.1% \uc774\ud6c4 \ub454\ud654\ub410\ub2e4.\n\n\ubbf8\uad6d\uc5d0\uc11c\ub294 JOLTS(\uad6c\uc778\u00b7\uc774\uc9c1 \ud1b5\uacc4: \ucc44\uc6a9\uacf5\uace0 \uc218 \ub4f1 \uace0\uc6a9 \uc218\uc694\ub97c \ubcf4\uc5ec\uc8fc\ub294 \uc9c0\ud45c) \uad6c\uc778\uacf5\uace0(job openings: \uae30\uc5c5\uc774 \ucc44\uc6a9\ud558\ub824\uace0 \ub0b4\ub193\uc740 \uacf5\uace0 \uc218)\uac00 1\uc6d4 694\ub9cc 6\ucc9c \uac74\uc73c\ub85c, \uc55e\uc11c \ubcf4\uace0\ub41c 12\uc6d4 655\ub9cc \uac74\uc5d0\uc11c \uc99d\uac00\ud588\ub2e4. \uadfc\uc6d0 \uac1c\uc778\uc18c\ube44\uc9c0\ucd9c(Core Personal Consumption Expenditures, Core PCE: \ubcc0\ub3d9\uc774 \ud070 \uc2dd\ud488\u00b7\uc5d0\ub108\uc9c0\ub97c \uc81c\uc678\ud55c \ubb3c\uac00\uc9c0\ud45c) \ubb3c\uac00\ub294 1\uc6d4 3.1%\ub85c, 12\uc6d4 3.0%\uc5d0\uc11c \uc0c1\uc2b9\ud588\ub2e4.\n\n4\uc2dc\uac04 \ucc28\ud2b8\uc5d0\uc11c GBP\/USD\ub294 1.3241\uc5d0 \uc788\uc5c8\uace0 20\u00b7100\uae30\uac04 SMA(Simple Moving Average: \ub2e8\uc21c\uc774\ub3d9\ud3c9\uade0, \uc77c\uc815 \uae30\uac04 \uac00\uaca9\uc758 \ud3c9\uade0\uc120) \uc544\ub798\uc5d0\uc11c \uac70\ub798\ub410\ub2e4. \uc800\ud56d\uc120(resistance: \uac00\uaca9\uc774 \uc62c\ub77c\uac00\ub2e4 \ub9c9\ud788\uae30 \uc26c\uc6b4 \uad6c\uac04)\uc740 1.3289\uc640 1.3346, \uc9c0\uc9c0\uc120(support: \uac00\uaca9\uc774 \ub0b4\ub824\uac00\ub2e4 \uba48\ucd94\uae30 \uc26c\uc6b4 \uad6c\uac04)\uc740 1.3230\uc73c\ub85c \uc81c\uc2dc\ub410\uace0, RSI(Relative Strength Index: \uc0c1\ub300\uac15\ub3c4\uc9c0\uc218, \uacfc\ub9e4\uc218\u00b7\uacfc\ub9e4\ub3c4 \uc0c1\ud0dc\ub97c \ubcf4\ub294 \uc9c0\ud45c)\ub294 30 \ubd80\uadfc\uc5d0 \uba38\ubb3c\ub800\ub2e4.\n\n\ucf00\uc774\ube14(Cable: GBP\/USD \ud658\uc728\uc758 \uc2dc\uc7a5 \ubcc4\uce6d)\uc774 3\uac1c\uc6d4 \uc800\uc810\uc73c\ub85c \ub0b4\ub824\uc624\uba74\uc11c, \ud380\ub354\uba58\ud138 \uad34\ub9ac(fundamental divergence: \uacbd\uae30\u00b7\ubb3c\uac00\u00b7\uc815\ucc45 \ub4f1 \uae30\ucd08 \uc5ec\uac74\uc758 \ucc28\uc774)\ub85c \uc6c0\uc9c1\uc774\ub294 \ub69c\ub837\ud55c \ud558\ub77d \ucd94\uc138(bearish trend: \ud558\ub77d \ud750\ub984)\uac00 \ubcf4\uc778\ub2e4\uace0 \ubcf8\ub2e4. \uc601\uad6d\uc758 \uc57d\ud55c 0% GDP \uc131\uc7a5\ub960\uc740 \uac15\ud55c \ubbf8\uad6d \uad6c\uc778\uacf5\uace0\uc640 \uc27d\uac8c \uaebe\uc774\uc9c0 \uc54a\ub294(sticky: \uc798 \ub0b4\ub824\uac00\uc9c0 \uc54a\ub294) \uc778\ud50c\ub808\uc774\uc158\uacfc \ub300\ube44\ub41c\ub2e4. \ub530\ub77c\uc11c \uc8fc\uc694 \uc911\uc559\uc740\ud589 \ud68c\uc758\ub97c \uc55e\ub450\uace0 GBP\/USD\uc758 \ucd94\uac00 \ud558\ub77d \uac00\ub2a5\uc131\uc5d0 \ub300\ube44\ud574\uc57c \ud55c\ub2e4.\n\n<h3>Policy Divergence Trade Setup<\/h3>\n\uc9c4\ud589 \uc911\uc778 \uc774\ub780 \ubd84\uc7c1\uc740 BoE\uac00 \uc774\ubbf8 \uc815\uccb4\ub41c \uacbd\uc81c\ub97c \ub354 \ud574\uce58\uc9c0 \uc54a\uc73c\uba74\uc11c\ub294 \uc27d\uac8c \ud574\uacb0\ud558\uae30 \uc5b4\ub824\uc6b4 \uc778\ud50c\ub808\uc774\uc158 \ubb38\uc81c\ub97c \ub9cc\ub4e4\uace0 \uc788\ub2e4. \uc774\ub294 2022\ub144\uc5d0 \ubd24\ub358 \uc5d0\ub108\uc9c0 \uac00\uaca9 \ucda9\uaca9(energy price shock: \uc5d0\ub108\uc9c0 \uac00\uaca9\uc774 \uae09\ub4f1\ud574 \ubb3c\uac00\uc640 \uacbd\uc81c\uc5d0 \ud0c0\uaca9\uc744 \uc8fc\ub294 \uc0c1\ud669)\uc744 \ub5a0\uc62c\ub9ac\uac8c \ud558\uba70, \ub2f9\uc2dc \uc601\uad6d \uc18c\ube44\uc790\uc5d0\uac8c \ud070 \ubd80\ub2f4\uc744 \uc8fc\uace0 BoE\uc758 \uc815\ucc45 \uc120\ud0dd\uc9c0\ub97c \uc81c\ud55c\ud588\ub2e4. \uc774\ub7f0 \ud750\ub984\uc740 \ubbf8\uad6d \ub2ec\ub7ec\uc5d0 \uc720\ub9ac\ud55c\ub370, Fed\uac00 \ub9e4\ud30c\uc801(hawkish: \uae08\ub9ac\ub97c \ub192\uac8c \uc720\uc9c0\ud558\uac70\ub098 \uc62c\ub9ac\ub824\ub294 \uae30\uc870) \ud0dc\ub3c4\ub97c \uc720\uc9c0\ud560 \uc5ec\uc9c0\uac00 \ub354 \ud06c\uae30 \ub54c\ubb38\uc774\ub2e4.\n\nBoE\uac00 \ube44\ub458\uae30\ud30c\uc801 \ub3d9\uacb0(dovish hold: \uae08\ub9ac\ub97c \uc62c\ub9ac\uc9c0 \uc54a\uace0 \uc720\uc9c0\ud558\uba74\uc11c\ub3c4 \uc644\ud654 \ucabd \uc2e0\ud638\ub97c \uc8fc\ub294 \uacb0\uc815)\uc774 \ub098\uc62c \uac83\uc774\ub77c\ub294 \uc608\uc0c1\uc5d0 \ub530\ub77c, GBP\/USD \ud48b\uc635\uc158(put option: \uc815\ud574\uc9c4 \uac00\uaca9\uc5d0 \ud314 \uc218 \uc788\ub294 \uad8c\ub9ac)\uc744 \ub9e4\uc218\ud558\ub294 \uac83\uc774 \uac00\uc7a5 \ud6a8\uacfc\uc801\uc778 \uc804\ub7b5\uc774\ub77c\uace0 \ubcf8\ub2e4. 1.3200 \uc2ec\ub9ac\uc801 \uc218\uc900(psychological level: \ub9ce\uc740 \ucc38\uac00\uc790\uac00 \uc22b\uc790 \uc790\uccb4\ub97c \uae30\uc900\uc73c\ub85c \uc758\uc2dd\ud558\ub294 \uac00\uaca9) \uc544\ub798\uc758 \ud589\uc0ac\uac00(strike: \uc635\uc158\uc5d0\uc11c \uc815\ud574\uc9c4 \ub9e4\uc218\u00b7\ub9e4\ub3c4 \uac00\uaca9)\ub97c \ub178\ub9ac\uace0 3\uc6d4 \ub9d0 \ub9cc\uae30(expiration: \uc635\uc158\uc774 \ub05d\ub098\ub294 \ub0a0\uc9dc)\ub97c \uc120\ud0dd\ud558\uba74, \ub2e4\uc74c \uc8fc \ud68c\uc758\uc5d0 \ub300\ud55c \ubd80\uc815\uc801 \ubc18\uc751\uc744 \ud3ec\ucc29\ud560 \uc218 \uc788\ub2e4. \uc774 \ubc29\uc2dd\uc740 \uc190\uc775 \ubc94\uc704\uac00 \ubbf8\ub9ac \uc815\ud574\uc9c4(risk-defined: \ucd5c\ub300 \uc190\uc2e4\uc774 \uc81c\ud55c\ub41c) \ud615\ud0dc\ub85c \ud30c\uc6b4\ub4dc \uc57d\uc138\ub97c \ud65c\uc6a9\ud560 \uc218 \uc788\ub2e4.\n\n\ucd5c\uadfc \uc2dc\uc7a5 \ub370\uc774\ud130\ub3c4 \uc774 \uad00\uc810\uc744 \ub4b7\ubc1b\uce68\ud55c\ub2e4. GBP\/USD\uc758 1\uac1c\uc6d4 \ub9ac\uc2a4\ud06c \ub9ac\ubc84\uc124(risk reversals: \ucf5c\uacfc \ud48b\uc758 \ubcc0\ub3d9\uc131 \ucc28\uc774\ub85c \uc2dc\uc7a5\uc774 \uc5b4\ub290 \ucabd \uc704\ud5d8\uc744 \ub354 \ud06c\uac8c \ubcf4\ub294\uc9c0 \ubcf4\uc5ec\uc8fc\ub294 \uc9c0\ud45c)\uc774 2025\ub144 4\ubd84\uae30 \uc774\ud6c4 \ud48b \ucabd\uc73c\ub85c \uac00\uc7a5 \ud06c\uac8c \uae30\uc6b8\uc5b4 \uc788\ub2e4. \uc774\ub294 \uae30\uad00 \ud2b8\ub808\uc774\ub354(institutional traders: \uc740\ud589\u00b7\uc790\uc0b0\uc6b4\uc6a9\uc0ac \ub4f1 \ud070 \uc790\uae08\uc73c\ub85c \uac70\ub798\ud558\ub294 \ucc38\uac00\uc790)\ub4e4\uc774 \ud558\ub77d \ubc29\uc5b4(downside protection: \uac00\uaca9 \ud558\ub77d\uc5d0 \ub300\ube44\ud558\ub294 \uc218\ub2e8)\ub97c \uc801\uadf9\uc801\uc73c\ub85c \ub9e4\uc218\ud558\uace0 \uc788\uc74c\uc744 \ub73b\ud55c\ub2e4. \uc774\ub7f0 \uc2ec\ub9ac\uc5d0 \ub9de\ucdb0\uc57c \ud558\uba70, \ub354 \ub0ae\uc740 \ud658\uc728\uc5d0 \ub300\ud55c \uc2dc\uc7a5\uc758 \ud655\uc2e0\uc774 \ud06c\ub2e4\ub294 \uc2e0\ud638\ub2e4.\n\n\ub610\ud55c \ubbf8\uad6d \ucabd \uacbd\uc81c\uc9c0\ud45c\ub294 \ub2ec\ub7ec \uac15\uc138\ub97c \uacc4\uc18d \uc815\ub2f9\ud654\ud55c\ub2e4. \uc5b4\uc81c \ub098\uc628 \uc8fc\uac04 \uc2e4\uc5c5\uc218\ub2f9 \uccad\uad6c(weekly jobless claims: \uc2e4\uc5c5\ubcf4\ud5d8 \uc2e0\uccad \uac74\uc218) \uc218\uce58\uac00 \ub178\ub3d9\uc2dc\uc7a5(labor market: \uace0\uc6a9\u00b7\uc2e4\uc5c5 \uc0c1\ud669)\uc774 \ub9e4\uc6b0 \ud0c0\uc774\ud2b8(tight: \uc778\ub825\uc774 \ubd80\uc871\ud574 \uc784\uae08\u00b7\ubb3c\uac00 \uc555\ub825\uc774 \uc0dd\uae30\uae30 \uc26c\uc6b4 \uc0c1\ud0dc)\ud568\uc744 \ubcf4\uc5ec\uc92c\ub2e4. 3%\ub97c \ub118\ub294 \uacac\uc870\ud55c \uadfc\uc6d0 PCE\ub294 Fed\uac00 \uc0c8 \uc810\ub3c4\ud45c\uc5d0\uc11c \uc784\ubc15\ud55c \uae08\ub9ac \uc778\ud558(rate cuts: \uae30\uc900\uae08\ub9ac \uc778\ud558)\ub97c \uc2dc\uc0ac\ud560 \uc774\uc720\ub97c \uc904\uc778\ub2e4. Fed\uc640 BoE\uc758 \uc774\ub7f0 \uc815\ucc45 \uad34\ub9ac(policy divergence: \uc911\uc559\uc740\ud589 \uc815\ucc45 \ubc29\ud5a5 \ucc28\uc774)\uac00 \uc774\ubc88 \uac70\ub798\uc758 \ud575\uc2ec \ucd09\ub9e4(catalyst: \uac00\uaca9 \uc6c0\uc9c1\uc784\uc744 \uc720\ubc1c\ud558\ub294 \uc694\uc778)\ub2e4.\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph-->\n<p><b>VT Markets \ub77c\uc774\ube0c \uacc4\uc815\uc744 \ub9cc\ub4e4\uace0 \uc9c0\uae08 \ubc14\ub85c <a href=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr\/trade-now\/\">\uac70\ub798<\/a>\ub97c \uc2dc\uc791\ud558\uc138\uc694.<\/b><\/p>\n<!-- \/wp:post-content -->","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>\ud30c\uc6b4\ub4dc\/\ub2ec\ub7ec 1.3240\uae4c\uc9c0 4\uc77c\uc9f8 \ud558\ub77d, 3\uac1c\uc6d4 \uc800\uc810. \uc774\ub780 \uc804\uc7c1\ubc1c \uc720\uac00 \uae09\ub4f1\uc774 \uc778\ud50c\ub808 \uc6b0\ub824 \ud655\uc0b0. \uc601\uad6d \uc131\uc7a5 \uc815\uccb4 vs \ubbf8\uad6d \uace0\uc6a9\u00b7\ubb3c\uac00 \uacac\uc870\ub85c \uc815\ucc45 \uad34\ub9ac, BoE \ud68c\uc758 \uc55e\ub454 \ucd94\uac00 \ud558\ub77d \ubca0\ud305. &#8211; vtmarkets.com<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":103,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-41023","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/41023","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/103"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=41023"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/41023\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=41023"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=41023"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=41023"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}