{"id":40733,"date":"2026-03-12T11:42:45","date_gmt":"2026-03-12T11:42:45","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr\/uncategorized\/usd-inr-%eb%b3%b4%ed%95%a9%ec%84%b8-%ec%9c%a0%ec%a7%80%eb%a3%a8%ed%94%bc-%ec%95%bd%ec%84%b8%ea%b0%80-%ec%8b%a4%ec%88%98%eb%a1%9c-%ec%9e%ac%ea%b2%8c%ec%8b%9c%eb%90%9c-%eb%b6%84%ec%84%9d\/"},"modified":"2026-03-12T11:42:45","modified_gmt":"2026-03-12T11:42:45","slug":"usd-inr-%eb%b3%b4%ed%95%a9%ec%84%b8-%ec%9c%a0%ec%a7%80%eb%a3%a8%ed%94%bc-%ec%95%bd%ec%84%b8%ea%b0%80-%ec%8b%a4%ec%88%98%eb%a1%9c-%ec%9e%ac%ea%b2%8c%ec%8b%9c%eb%90%9c-%eb%b6%84%ec%84%9d","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/live-updates\/usd-inr-%eb%b3%b4%ed%95%a9%ec%84%b8-%ec%9c%a0%ec%a7%80%eb%a3%a8%ed%94%bc-%ec%95%bd%ec%84%b8%ea%b0%80-%ec%8b%a4%ec%88%98%eb%a1%9c-%ec%9e%ac%ea%b2%8c%ec%8b%9c%eb%90%9c-%eb%b6%84%ec%84%9d\/","title":{"rendered":"USD\/INR \ubcf4\ud569\uc138 \uc720\uc9c0\u2026\ub8e8\ud53c \uc57d\uc138\uac00 \uc2e4\uc218\ub85c \uc7ac\uac8c\uc2dc\ub41c \ubd84\uc11d \uc774\ud6c4 \uac1c\uc120\ub41c \uc2dc\uc7a5 \uc2ec\ub9ac\ub97c \uc0c1\uc1c4"},"content":{"rendered":"USD\/INR\uc740 \uc218\uc694\uc77c \ud070 \ubcc0\ub3d9 \uc5c6\uc774 \uac70\ub798\ub410\ub2e4. \ud5e4\uc9c0(\ud658\uc728 \ubcc0\ub3d9 \uc704\ud5d8\uc744 \uc904\uc774\uae30 \uc704\ud55c \uac70\ub798) \uc218\uc694\uc640 \uc678\uad6d\uc778 \ud3ec\ud2b8\ud3f4\ub9ac\uc624 \uc790\uae08 \uc720\ucd9c\uc774 \ub8e8\ud53c\uc5d0 \ubd80\ub2f4\uc744 \uc92c\ub2e4. \ub2e4\ub9cc \uad6d\uc81c\uc5d0\ub108\uc9c0\uae30\uad6c(IEA)\uac00 \uc0ac\uc0c1 \ucd5c\ub300 \uaddc\ubaa8\uc758 \ube44\ucd95\uc720 \ubc29\ucd9c\uc5d0 \ub098\uc124 \uc218 \uc788\ub2e4\ub294 \ubcf4\ub3c4\ub85c \uc720\uac00\uac00 \ud558\ub77d\ud558\uba74\uc11c \uc704\ud5d8\uc790\uc0b0 \uc120\ud638 \uc2ec\ub9ac\ub294 \uac1c\uc120\ub410\ub2e4.\n\n\ud2b8\ub808\uc774\ub354\ub4e4\uc740 \ub8e8\ud53c \uc57d\uc138\ub97c \uc81c\ud55c\ud558\uae30 \uc704\ud55c \uc778\ub3c4\uc911\uc559\uc740\ud589(RBI)\uc758 \uc2dc\uc7a5 \uac1c\uc785 \uac00\ub2a5\uc131\ub3c4 \uc8fc\uc2dc\ud588\ub2e4. \uc778\ub3c4 \uc99d\uc2dc\ub294 \uc57d\uc138\uc600\ub294\ub370, \uc911\ub3d9 \uc804\uc7c1\uc774 \uc5ec\uc804\ud788 \ud575\uc2ec \ubcc0\uc218\uc778 \uac00\uc6b4\ub370 \uc778\uacf5\uc9c0\ub2a5(AI)\uc774 IT \uc5c5\uc885\uc5d0 \ubbf8\uce60 \uc601\ud5a5\uc5d0 \ub300\ud55c \uc6b0\ub824\uac00 \ucee4\uc84c\ub2e4.\n\n

Rates And Market Positioning<\/h3>\n\uc778\ub3c4\uc758 1\ub144\ubb3c\u00b72\ub144\ubb3c OIS(\uc624\ubc84\ub098\uc774\ud2b8 \uc778\ub371\uc2a4 \uc2a4\uc640\ud504: \ubb34\ub2f4\ubcf4 \ud558\ub8e8\uc9dc\ub9ac \uae08\ub9ac\ub97c \uae30\uc900\uc73c\ub85c \uace0\uc815\uae08\ub9ac\uc640 \ubcc0\ub3d9\uae08\ub9ac\ub97c \uad50\ud658\ud558\ub294 \uae08\ub9ac \ud30c\uc0dd\uc0c1\ud488) \uae08\ub9ac\ub294 2\uc6d4 28\uc77c \ubd84\uc7c1 \uc774\ud6c4 \uac01\uac01 45bp(\ubca0\uc774\uc2dc\uc2a4\ud3ec\uc778\ud2b8: 0.01%\ud3ec\uc778\ud2b8) \uc774\uc0c1 \uc0c1\uc2b9\ud588\ub2e4. 10\ub144\ubb3c \uad6d\ucc44 \uae08\ub9ac\ub294 \uc6d4\uc694\uc77c\uae4c\uc9c0 11bp \uc62c\ub790\ub2e4\uac00 \uc774\ud6c4 \uc77c\ubd80 \uc0c1\uc2b9\ubd84\uc744 \ub418\ub3cc\ub838\uace0, \uc2a4\uc640\ud504 \uc2dc\uc7a5\uc740 \ud5a5\ud6c4 12\uac1c\uc6d4 \ub3d9\uc548 RBI\uac00 \uae30\uc900\uae08\ub9ac\ub97c \uc57d 2\ucc28\ub840 \uc778\uc0c1\ud560 \uac00\ub2a5\uc131\uc744 \uac00\uaca9\uc5d0 \ubc18\uc601\ud558\uace0 \uc788\ub2e4.\n\nWTI(\uc11c\ubd80\ud14d\uc0ac\uc2a4\uc0b0 \uc6d0\uc720)\ub294 \uc544\uc2dc\uc544 \uac70\ub798 \uc2dc\uac04\ub300 \ubc30\ub7f4\ub2f9 82.30\ub2ec\ub7ec \ubd80\uadfc\uc5d0\uc11c \uac70\ub798\ub410\ub2e4. IEA \uacc4\ud68d\uc740 2022\ub144 \ubc29\ucd9c\ub41c 1\uc5b58,200\ub9cc \ubc30\ub7f4\ubcf4\ub2e4 \ub354 \ud070 \uaddc\ubaa8\uac00 \ub420 \uc218 \uc788\ub2e4. \ub2e4\ub9cc \ud638\ub974\ubb34\uc988 \ud574\ud611\uc744 \ub458\ub7ec\uc2fc \uc704\ud5d8\uc774 \uc720\uac00 \ud558\ub77d \ud3ed\uc744 \uc81c\ud55c\ud560 \uc218 \uc788\ub2e4.\n\n\ubbf8\uad6d \ub2ec\ub7ec\ub294 \ubd84\uc7c1 \uad00\ub828 \ub274\uc2a4\uac00 \uc774\uc5b4\uc9c0\uba74\uc11c \uc548\uc804\uc790\uc0b0 \uc120\ud638(\uc704\uae30 \ub54c \uc0c1\ub300\uc801\uc73c\ub85c \uc548\uc804\ud558\ub2e4\uace0 \uc5ec\uaca8\uc9c0\ub294 \uc790\uc0b0\uc73c\ub85c \uc790\uae08\uc774 \ubab0\ub9ac\ub294 \ud604\uc0c1)\ub85c \uac15\uc138\ub97c \ubcf4\uc77c \uc218 \uc788\ub2e4. \uc5ec\uae30\uc5d0 \ubbf8\uad6d CPI(\uc18c\ube44\uc790\ubb3c\uac00\uc9c0\uc218)\uc640 \uae08\uc694\uc77c \ubc1c\ud45c\ub418\ub294 PCE(\uac1c\uc778\uc18c\ube44\uc9c0\ucd9c \ubb3c\uac00\uc9c0\uc218: \uc5f0\uc900\uc774 \uc911\uc2dc\ud558\ub294 \ubb3c\uac00 \uc9c0\ud45c)\ub3c4 \ub300\uae30\ud558\uace0 \uc788\ub2e4. USD\/INR\uc740 92.30 \ubd80\uadfc\uc5d0\uc11c \uac70\ub798\ub410\uc73c\uba70, \uc800\ud56d\uc120\uc740 92.81, \uc9c0\uc9c0\uc120\uc740 92.06\uacfc 91.30\uc73c\ub85c \uc81c\uc2dc\ub410\ub2e4. 14\uc77c RSI(\uc0c1\ub300\uac15\ub3c4\uc9c0\uc218: \uac00\uaca9 \uc0c1\uc2b9\u00b7\ud558\ub77d\uc758 \ud798\uc744 0~100\uc73c\ub85c \ub098\ud0c0\ub0b4 \uacfc\uc5f4 \uc5ec\ubd80\ub97c \ubcf4\ub294 \uc9c0\ud45c)\ub294 60\ub300 \uc911\ubc18\uc5d0 \uba38\ubb3c\ub800\ub2e4.\n\nWe recall how this time in 2025, geopolitical tensions sent USD\/INR surging towards its all-time high of 92.81 on fears of a wider conflict. Today, with the pair trading in a tighter range around 84.50, the market’s memory of that volatility is key. Last year’s foreign portfolio outflows, which reached over $4 billion in March 2025, have since reversed, with net inflows of $22 billion recorded for the year ending February 2026.\n\nThe threatened supply disruption through the Strait of Hormuz in 2025 was a major driver, but the IEA’s record reserve release ultimately capped the rally in oil prices. This provided crucial support for the Rupee, preventing a more severe depreciation. With Brent crude now hovering around a more stable $86 per barrel, implied volatility on INR options is significantly lower than the highs seen during the first quarter of 2025.\n\n

Lessons From Last Year<\/h3>\n2025\ub144\uc744 \ub3cc\uc544\ubcf4\uba74 \uc2a4\uc640\ud504 \uc2dc\uc7a5\uc740 RBI\uc758 \uae30\uc900\uae08\ub9ac \uc778\uc0c1\uc744 \uac70\uc758 2\ucc28\ub840 \ubc18\uc601\ud558\uace0 \uc788\uc5c8\ub2e4. \uadf8\ub7ec\ub098 2025\ub144 \ud558\ubc18\uae30\ub85c \uac08\uc218\ub85d \ubb3c\uac00 \uc0c1\uc2b9\uc138\uac00 \uc608\uc0c1\ubcf4\ub2e4 \ube60\ub974\uac8c \ub454\ud654\ub418\uba74\uc11c RBI\ub294 \uae08\ub9ac\ub97c \ub3d9\uacb0\ud588\uace0, \uc62c\ud574\ub3c4 \uac19\uc740 \uae30\uc870\ub97c \uc720\uc9c0\ud558\uace0 \uc788\ub2e4. \uc791\ub144\ucc98\ub7fc \uc2dc\uc7a5\uc758 \uae30\ub300\uc640 \uc911\uc559\uc740\ud589\uc758 \uc2e4\uc81c \uc815\ucc45\uc774 \uac08\ub9b4 \uc218 \uc788\ub2e4\ub294 \uc810\uc740, \uc9c0\uae08\ub3c4 \uacfc\ub3c4\ud55c \uc815\ucc45 \ubcc0\ud654\ub97c \uc55e\uc11c \ubc18\uc601\ud558\ub294 \ub370 \uc2e0\uc911\ud560 \ud544\uc694\uac00 \uc788\ub2e4\ub294 \ub73b\uc774\ub2e4.\n\n2025\ub144 \ubd84\uc7c1 \uad6d\uba74\uc5d0\uc11c \ubbf8\uad6d \ub2ec\ub7ec\uc758 \uc548\uc804\uc790\uc0b0 \uc120\ud638\ub294 \uac15\ub825\ud588\uc9c0\ub9cc \uc77c\uc2dc\uc801\uc774\uc5c8\ub2e4. \ud604\uc7ac\ub294 \ub2e4\uc2dc \uae08\ub9ac \uaca9\ucc28(\uad6d\uac00 \uac04 \uae08\ub9ac \uc218\uc900 \ucc28\uc774)\uac00 \ud575\uc2ec \uc694\uc778\uc73c\ub85c \ubd80\uac01\ub418\uace0 \uc788\uc73c\uba70, \ucd5c\uadfc \ubbf8\uad6d \ube44\ub18d\uc5c5\ubd80\ubb38 \uace0\uc6a9(\ub18d\uc5c5\uc744 \uc81c\uc678\ud55c \uc2e0\uaddc \uace0\uc6a9\uc790 \uc218) \uc9c0\ud45c\uc5d0\uc11c \uc9c0\ub09c\ub2ec 21\ub9cc5,000\uba85 \uc99d\uac00\ub85c \uace0\uc6a9\uc774 \uacac\uc870\ud558\uac8c \ub098\ud0c0\ub098 \uc5f0\uc900(Fed)\uc774 \uae34\ucd95 \uc131\ud5a5(\uc778\ud50c\ub808\uc774\uc158 \uc5b5\uc81c\ub97c \uc704\ud574 \uae08\ub9ac \uc778\uc0c1\uc5d0 \uc6b0\ud638\uc801\uc778 \ud0dc\ub3c4)\uc744 \uc720\uc9c0\ud560 \uc5ec\uc9c0\uac00 \ucee4\uc84c\ub2e4. \uc774\ub294 \uc791\ub144\uacfc \uac19\uc740 \uc9c0\uc815\ud559\uc801 \uacf5\ud3ec\uac00 \uc5c6\ub354\ub77c\ub3c4 USD\/INR \ucf5c\uc635\uc158(\ud2b9\uc815 \uac00\uaca9\uc5d0 \uc0b4 \uc218 \uc788\ub294 \uad8c\ub9ac)\uc744 \ud65c\uc6a9\ud55c \ub2ec\ub7ec \uac15\uc138 \ud3ec\uc9c0\uc158\uc774 \ub9e4\ub825\uc801\uc77c \uc218 \uc788\uc74c\uc744 \uc2dc\uc0ac\ud55c\ub2e4.\n\n2025\ub144\uc758 \uc0c1\uc2b9 \ucc44\ub110(\uac00\uaca9\uc774 \uc6b0\uc0c1\ud5a5\ud558\uba70 \uc77c\uc815 \ubc94\uc704 \uc548\uc5d0\uc11c \uc6c0\uc9c1\uc774\ub294 \ud750\ub984)\uc740 \uadf8\ud574 \ud6c4\ubc18 \uae68\uc84c\uc9c0\ub9cc, 92.81 \uace0\uc810\uc740 \uc2ec\ub9ac\uc801 \uc800\ud56d\uc73c\ub85c \ub0a8\uc544 \uc788\ub2e4. \ud604\uc7ac\ub294 \ubc15\uc2a4\uad8c(\uc77c\uc815 \ubc94\uc704 \ub0b4 \ud6a1\ubcf4) \uc2e0\ud638\uac00 \ub098\ud0c0\ub098\uace0 \uc788\uc73c\uba70, 1\uac1c\uc6d4\ubb3c \uc635\uc158\uc758 \ub0b4\uc7ac\ubcc0\ub3d9\uc131(\uc635\uc158 \uac00\uaca9\uc5d0 \ubc18\uc601\ub41c \ud5a5\ud6c4 \ubcc0\ub3d9\uc131 \uae30\ub300\uce58)\uc740 4.2%\uae4c\uc9c0 \ub0b4\ub824 \uc791\ub144\uc758 \ub450 \uc790\ub9bf\uc218 \uace0\uc810 \ub300\ube44 \ud06c\uac8c \ub0ae\ub2e4. \ubcc0\ub3d9\uc131\uc774 \ub0ae\uc740 \ud658\uacbd\uc5d0\uc11c\ub294 83.75\uc640 85.25\uc5d0 \ud589\uc0ac\uac00\uaca9\uc744 \ub454 \uc2a4\ud2b8\ub7ad\uae00 \ub9e4\ub3c4(\uc11c\ub85c \ub2e4\ub978 \ud589\uc0ac\uac00\uc758 \ucf5c\u00b7\ud48b \uc635\uc158\uc744 \ub3d9\uc2dc\uc5d0 \ub9e4\ub3c4\ud574 \ud504\ub9ac\ubbf8\uc5c4\uc744 \ubc1b\ub294 \uc804\ub7b5)\ub97c \ud1b5\ud574 \ud5a5\ud6c4 \uba87 \uc8fc\uac04 \ud504\ub9ac\ubbf8\uc5c4(\uc635\uc158 \uac00\uaca9)\uc744 \ud655\ubcf4\ud558\ub294 \uc804\ub7b5\ub3c4 \uace0\ub824\ub420 \uc218 \uc788\ub2e4.\n

\n\n

\uc9c0\uae08 \ubc14\ub85c \uac70\ub798\ub97c \uc2dc\uc791\ud558\uc138\uc694 – VT Markets \uc2e4\uacc4\uc88c\ub97c \uac1c\uc124\ud558\ub824\uba74 \uc5ec\uae30<\/a>\ub97c \ud074\ub9ad\ud558\uc138\uc694 <\/strong> <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

\u201c\ub8e8\ud53c, \uc720\uac00 \ud558\ub77d vs \uc790\uae08\uc720\ucd9c \uc904\ub2e4\ub9ac\uae30\u201d\u2026USD\/INR \ubcf4\ud569 \uc18d \ud5e4\uc9c0\uc218\uc694\u00b7\uc678\uad6d\uc778 \uc720\ucd9c \ubd80\ub2f4, IEA \ube44\ucd95\uc720 \ubc29\ucd9c \uae30\ub300\uac00 \uc704\ud5d8\uc120\ud638 \uac1c\uc120. RBI \uac1c\uc785\u00b7\ubbf8 CPI\/PCE, 92.81 \uc800\ud56d\u00b792.06 \uc9c0\uc9c0 \uc8fc\ubaa9.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-40733","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/40733","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=40733"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/40733\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=40733"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=40733"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=40733"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}