{"id":40536,"date":"2026-03-11T11:43:39","date_gmt":"2026-03-11T11:43:39","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr\/uncategorized\/%eb%9d%bc%eb%b3%b4%eb%b1%85%ed%81%ac-%ec%9c%a0%ea%b0%80-%ec%9d%b4%eb%9e%80%ec%9d%98-%ea%b3%b5%ea%b2%a9%ea%b3%bc-%ea%b1%b8%ed%94%84-%ec%a7%80%ec%97%ad-%ec%9d%b8%ed%94%84%eb%9d%bc-%ec%9c%84\/"},"modified":"2026-03-11T11:43:39","modified_gmt":"2026-03-11T11:43:39","slug":"%eb%9d%bc%eb%b3%b4%eb%b1%85%ed%81%ac-%ec%9c%a0%ea%b0%80-%ec%9d%b4%eb%9e%80%ec%9d%98-%ea%b3%b5%ea%b2%a9%ea%b3%bc-%ea%b1%b8%ed%94%84-%ec%a7%80%ec%97%ad-%ec%9d%b8%ed%94%84%eb%9d%bc-%ec%9c%84","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/live-updates\/%eb%9d%bc%eb%b3%b4%eb%b1%85%ed%81%ac-%ec%9c%a0%ea%b0%80-%ec%9d%b4%eb%9e%80%ec%9d%98-%ea%b3%b5%ea%b2%a9%ea%b3%bc-%ea%b1%b8%ed%94%84-%ec%a7%80%ec%97%ad-%ec%9d%b8%ed%94%84%eb%9d%bc-%ec%9c%84\/","title":{"rendered":"\ub77c\ubcf4\ubc45\ud06c \u201c\uc720\uac00, \uc774\ub780\uc758 \uacf5\uaca9\uacfc \uac78\ud504 \uc9c0\uc5ed \uc778\ud504\ub77c \uc704\ud611, \ubbf8\uad70 \uacf5\uc2b5 \uc18d \ud638\ub974\ubb34\uc988 \ub9ac\uc2a4\ud06c\ub97c \uacfc\uc18c\ubc18\uc601\u201d"},"content":{"rendered":"Rabobank RaboResearch\ub294 \uc774\ub780\uc758 \uac78\ud504 \uc9c0\uc5ed \uc5d0\ub108\uc9c0 \uc778\ud504\ub77c \uacf5\uaca9\uacfc \ubbf8\uad6d\uc758 \uacf5\uc2b5\uc774 \uc774\uc5b4\uc9c0\ub294 \uc0c1\ud669\uc5d0\uc11c, \uc720\uac00\uac00 \ud638\ub974\ubb34\uc988 \ud574\ud611(\uc911\ub3d9\uc5d0\uc11c \uc6d0\uc720 \uc218\uc1a1\uc774 \uc9d1\uc911\ub418\ub294 \ub9e4\uc6b0 \uc911\uc694\ud55c \ud574\uc0c1 \ud1b5\ub85c) \uc8fc\ubcc0\uc758 \ucee4\uc9c0\ub294 \uc704\ud5d8\uc744 \ucda9\ubd84\ud788 \ubc18\uc601\ud558\uc9c0 \ubabb\ud558\uace0 \uc788\ub2e4\uace0 \ubc1d\ud614\ub2e4. \ub610\ud55c \uc55e\uc73c\ub85c\uc758 \uc6d0\uc720 \uc218\uc1a1\ub7c9\uc740 \uc911\ub3d9 \uc804\uc7c1\uc774 \uc5b4\ub5a4 \ubc29\uc2dd\uc73c\ub85c \ub05d\ub098\ub294\uc9c0\uc5d0 \ub2ec\ub824 \uc788\ub2e4\uace0 \ud588\uc73c\uba70, IEA(\uad6d\uc81c\uc5d0\ub108\uc9c0\uae30\uad6c: \uc8fc\uc694 \uad6d\uac00\ub4e4\uc774 \ucc38\uc5ec\ud574 \uc5d0\ub108\uc9c0 \uc815\ucc45\uacfc \ube44\uc0c1 \ub300\uc751\uc744 \uc870\uc728\ud558\ub294 \uae30\uad6c)\uc758 \uc804\ub7b5\ube44\ucd95\uc720 \ubc29\ucd9c(\uc815\ubd80\uac00 \ube44\uc0c1\uc6a9\uc73c\ub85c \uc313\uc544\ub454 \uc6d0\uc720\ub97c \uc2dc\uc7a5\uc5d0 \ud478\ub294 \uac83)\uc774 \uc81c\ud55c\ub41c \uae30\uac04 \ub3d9\uc548 \uc555\ubc15\uc744 \uc904\uc77c \uc218 \uc788\ub2e4\uace0 \ub367\ubd99\uc600\ub2e4.\n\n\uc774\ub780\uc740 \ubbf8\uad6d\uacfc \uc774\uc2a4\ub77c\uc5d8\uc774 \ubb3c\ub7ec\ub098\uae30 \uc804\uae4c\uc9c0 \u201c\ub2e8 1\ub9ac\ud130\ub3c4\u201d \uc11d\uc720\uac00 \ub098\uac00\uc9c0 \ubabb\ud558\uac8c \ud558\uaca0\ub2e4\uace0 \ud588\uace0, \ud638\ub974\ubb34\uc988 \ud574\ud611\uc5d0\uc11c \uae30\ub8b0 \ubd80\uc124\uc120(\ubc14\ub2e4\uc5d0 \uae30\ub8b0\ub97c \uc124\uce58\ud558\ub294 \uc120\ubc15)\uacfc \uace0\uc18d\uc815(\ube60\ub978 \uc18c\ud615 \uc120\ubc15)\uc744 \uac00\ub3d9 \uc911\uc774\ub77c\ub294 \ubcf4\ub3c4\ub3c4 \ub098\uc654\ub2e4. \ubbf8\uad6d\uc740 \uae30\ub8b0 \ubd80\uc124\uc120 16\ucc99\uc744 \ud30c\uad34\ud588\ub2e4\uace0 \ubc1d\ud614\uc73c\uba70, \ubcf4\uace0\uc11c\ub294 \ud574\ub2f9 \ud574\uc5ed\uc5d0 \ubbf8\uad6d, GCC(\uac78\ud504\ud611\ub825\ud68c\uc758: \uc0ac\uc6b0\ub514\uc544\ub77c\ube44\uc544 \ub4f1 \uac78\ud504 \uad6d\uac00\ub4e4\uc758 \ud611\uc758\uccb4), \uc720\ub7fd\uc758 \uc18c\ud574\ud568(\ubc14\ub2e4\uc758 \uae30\ub8b0\ub97c \ucc3e\uc544 \uc81c\uac70\ud558\ub294 \uad70\ud568)\uc774\ub098 \ucd08\uacc4\ud568\/\ucf54\ub974\ubcb3(\uc791\uc740 \uad70\ud568\uc73c\ub85c \uc5f0\uc548 \uacbd\ube44\uc640 \ud638\uc704\uc5d0 \uc4f0\uc784)\uc774 \ubcf4\uc774\uc9c0 \uc54a\ub294 \uc810\ub3c4 \uc9c0\uc801\ud588\ub2e4.\n\n<h3>Escalation Timeline And Market Signals<\/h3>\n\ubcf4\uace0\uc11c\ub294 \uc9c0\uae08\uae4c\uc9c0 \uac00\uc7a5 \uac15\ud55c \uc218\uc900\uc758 \ubbf8\uad6d \uacf5\uaca9\uc774 \uc5b4\uc81c \uc788\uc5c8\ub2e4\uace0 \uc5b8\uae09\ud588\ub2e4. \ub610\ud55c \uc774\uc2a4\ub77c\uc5d8 \uad6d\ubc29 \uad00\ub828 \ub9e4\uccb4\ub97c \uc778\uc6a9\ud574 \ubbf8\uad6d\uc774 \uc55e\uc73c\ub85c 1~2\uc8fc \ub3d9\uc548 \ud589\ub3d9\uc744 \ub354 \uac15\ud654\ud560 \uc218 \uc788\ub2e4\uace0 \ud588\uace0, \uc774\ub780 \uc815\uad8c\uc774 \ubb34\ub108\uc9c0\ub294 \ub370 \ucd5c\ub300 1\ub144\uc774 \uac78\ub9b4 \uc218 \uc788\ub2e4\uace0 \ubcf4\ub294 \uc774\uc2a4\ub77c\uc5d8 \uc815\ubd80 \ub0b4 \uc758\uacac\uc774 \uc788\ub2e4\ub294 \ubcf4\ub3c4\ub3c4 \uc804\ud588\ub2e4.\n\n\uc6d4\uc2a4\ud2b8\ub9ac\ud2b8\uc800\ub110\uc740 IEA\uac00 G7(\ubbf8\uad6d\u00b7\uc77c\ubcf8\u00b7\ub3c5\uc77c \ub4f1 \uc8fc\uc694 7\uac1c\uad6d) \uc57d\uc18d\uc744 \ub118\uc5b4\uc11c\ub294, \uc5ed\ub300 \ucd5c\ub300 \uaddc\ubaa8\uc758 \uc804\ub7b5\ube44\ucd95\uc720 \ubc29\ucd9c\uc744 \uc81c\uc548\ud560 \uc218 \uc788\ub2e4\uace0 \ubcf4\ub3c4\ud588\ub2e4. \ubcf4\uace0\uc11c\ub294 \ub610 \ud654\uba74\uc5d0 \ud45c\uc2dc\ub418\ub294 \uac00\uaca9(\uac70\ub798\uc18c\u00b7\uc120\ubb3c\uc2dc\uc7a5 \ub4f1 \uae08\uc735\uc2dc\uc7a5\uc5d0\uc11c \ubcf4\uc774\ub294 \uac00\uaca9)\uacfc \uc2e4\uc81c\ub85c \ubb3c\uac74\uc744 \uad6c\ud560 \uc218 \uc788\ub294 \uc815\ub3c4(\ud604\ubb3c \uc218\uae09: \uc2e4\uc81c \uc6d0\uc720\ub098 \uc81c\ud488\uc744 \uc9c0\uae08 \ub2f9\uc7a5 \ud655\ubcf4\ud560 \uc218 \uc788\ub294 \uc0c1\ud669) \uc0ac\uc774\uc5d0 \ucc28\uc774\uac00 \uc788\ub2e4\uace0 \ud588\uc73c\uba70, \uc720\ud669(\uc815\uc720 \uacfc\uc815\uc5d0\uc11c \ub098\uc624\ub294 \ubb3c\uc9c8\ub85c \ube44\ub8cc\u00b7\ud654\ud559 \uc6d0\ub8cc\ub85c \uc4f0\uc784), \ube44\ub8cc(\ub18d\uc5c5\uc5d0 \uc4f0\ub294 \uc601\uc591 \uc131\ubd84), \ud5ec\ub968(\uc0b0\uc5c5\u00b7\uc758\ub8cc \uc7a5\ube44\uc5d0 \uc4f0\ub294 \uae30\uccb4) \uac19\uc740 \uad00\ub828 \uc81c\ud488\ub3c4 \uc5b8\uae09\ud588\ub2e4.\n\n2025\ub144 \ud638\ub974\ubb34\uc988 \uc704\uae30\uc758 \uad50\ud6c8\ub3c4 \ub5a0\uc62c\ub9b4 \ud544\uc694\uac00 \uc788\ub2e4. \ub2f9\uc2dc \uc2dc\uc7a5\uc740 \uc774\ub780\uc758 \uacf5\uaca9\uacfc \ud574\uc0c1 \uc6b4\uc1a1 \ubcd1\ubaa9(\ubc30\uac00 \uc9c0\ub098\uac08 \uae38\uc774 \ub9c9\ud600 \ubb3c\ub958\uac00 \uc9c0\uc5f0\ub418\ub294 \uc0c1\ud669)\uc774\ub77c\ub294 \ubd84\uba85\ud55c \ud604\uc2e4 \uc704\ud5d8\uc744 \ubb34\uc2dc\ud588\ub2e4. \uadf8\ub54c \ud654\uba74\uc0c1 \uc720\uac00\ub294 \uace7 \ud3c9\ud654 \ud569\uc758\uac00 \uc774\ub904\uc9c8 \uac83\ucc98\ub7fc \ubcf4\uc600\uc9c0\ub9cc, \uc2e4\uc81c\ub85c\ub294 \ubbf8\uad70\uc758 \ud589\ub3d9\uc774 \uac15\ud574\uc9c0\uace0 \uc788\uc5c8\ub2e4. \uc774\ub294 \uae08\uc735\uc2dc\uc7a5(\uc11c\ub958\u00b7\uacc4\uc57d\uc73c\ub85c \uac70\ub798\ub418\ub294 \uc2dc\uc7a5)\uc774 \ud604\uc2e4(\uc2e4\uc81c \ubb3c\ub958\uc640 \uacf5\uae09)\uacfc \uc5b4\uae0b\ub0a0 \uc218 \uc788\uc74c\uc744 \ubcf4\uc5ec\uc900\ub2e4.\n\n\ud604\uc7ac \ube0c\ub80c\ud2b8\uc720(\uad6d\uc81c \uc720\uac00\uc758 \ub300\ud45c \uae30\uc900\uc774 \ub418\ub294 \uc6d0\uc720 \uc885\ub958)\ub294 \ubc30\ub7f4\ub2f9 85\ub2ec\ub7ec \uadfc\ucc98\uc5d0\uc11c \uac89\ubcf4\uae30\uc5d4 \uc548\uc815\uc801\uc73c\ub85c \uc6c0\uc9c1\uc774\uace0 \uc788\ub2e4. \ud558\uc9c0\ub9cc \uc774 \uac00\uaca9\uc740 \ucd5c\uadfc OPEC+(OPEC\uacfc \ub7ec\uc2dc\uc544 \ub4f1 \uc0b0\uc720\uad6d \ud611\uc758\uccb4)\uac00 \uc790\ubc1c\uc801 \uac10\uc0b0(\uc2a4\uc2a4\ub85c \uc0dd\uc0b0\ub7c9\uc744 \uc904\uc774\ub294 \uc870\uce58) 220\ub9cc \ubc30\ub7f4\/\uc77c\uc744 2\ubd84\uae30\uae4c\uc9c0 \uc5f0\uc7a5\ud558\uae30\ub85c \ud55c \uacb0\uc815\uc5d0 \uc758\ud574 \uc9c0\uc9c0\ub418\uace0 \uc788\ub2e4. \uadf8 \uacb0\uacfc \uacf5\uae09 \uc5ec\uc720(\uc5ec\ubd84\uc73c\ub85c \ub354 \uc0dd\uc0b0\ud560 \uc218 \uc788\ub294 \ub2a5\ub825)\uac00 \ud06c\uc9c0 \uc54a\uc544, \uc608\uc0c1\uce58 \ubabb\ud55c \uacf5\uae09 \ucc28\uc9c8(\uc0dd\uc0b0\u00b7\uc218\uc1a1 \ubb38\uc81c\ub85c \ubb3c\ub7c9\uc774 \uc904\uc5b4\ub4dc\ub294 \uc0c1\ud669)\uc744 \ud761\uc218\ud558\uae30 \uc5b4\ub835\ub2e4.\n\n2025\ub144\uacfc \ub2ec\ub9ac, \ub300\uaddc\ubaa8 \uc804\ub7b5\ube44\ucd95\uc720 \ubc29\ucd9c\uc774\ub77c\ub294 \uc644\ucda9 \uc7a5\uce58(\ucda9\uaca9\uc744 \uc904\uc774\ub294 \ubc29\ud328)\uac00 \uc9c0\uae08\uc740 \uc57d\ud558\ub2e4. \ub2f9\uc2dc \ubc29\ucd9c \uc774\ud6c4 \ubbf8\uad6d \uc7ac\uace0(\uc313\uc544\ub454 \uc6d0\uc720\u00b7\uc81c\ud488 \ubb3c\ub7c9)\uac00 45\ub144 \ub9cc\uc758 \ucd5c\uc800 \uc218\uc900\uc774\uae30 \ub54c\ubb38\uc774\ub2e4. \uc774\ubbf8 \uc120\uc0ac(\uc6d0\uc720\ub97c \uc2e4\uc5b4 \ub098\ub974\ub294 \ud574\uc6b4 \uc5c5\uacc4)\ub294 \uc704\ud5d8\uc744 \uac00\uaca9\uc5d0 \ubc18\uc601\ud558\uace0 \uc788\ub2e4. \ud638\ub974\ubb34\uc988 \ud1b5\uacfc \uc804\uc7c1 \uc704\ud5d8 \ud560\uc99d\ub8cc(\uc804\uc7c1 \uc704\ud5d8 \ub54c\ubb38\uc5d0 \ubcf4\ud5d8\ub8cc\uc5d0 \ubd99\ub294 \ucd94\uac00 \ube44\uc6a9)\ub294 \ucd5c\uadfc \ud55c \ub2ec \ub3d9\uc548 0.25% \uc870\uc6a9\ud788 \uc62c\ub790\ub294\ub370, \uc8fc\uc694 \uc720\uac00 \ud5e4\ub4dc\ub77c\uc778\uc740 \ube44\uad50\uc801 \ucc28\ubd84\ud588\ub2e4. \uc774\ub294 \uc2e4\ubb3c \uc2dc\uc7a5\uc774 \uc704\ud5d8\uc744 \ub354 \ud06c\uac8c \ubcf4\uace0 \uc788\uc74c\uc744 \uc2dc\uc0ac\ud55c\ub2e4.\n\n<h3>Options Positioning For Tail Risk<\/h3>\n\uc774\ub7f0 \uc0c1\ud669\uc740 \uc635\uc158 \uc2dc\uc7a5(\ubbf8\ub9ac \uc815\ud55c \uac00\uaca9\uc5d0 \ub098\uc911\uc5d0 \uc0b4 \uc218 \uc788\ub294 \uad8c\ub9ac \ub4f1\uc744 \uac70\ub798\ud558\ub294 \uc2dc\uc7a5)\uc5d0\uc11c \uae30\ud68c\uac00 \ub420 \uc218 \uc788\ub2e4. \ub0b4\uc7ac \ubcc0\ub3d9\uc131(\uc635\uc158 \uac00\uaca9\uc5d0 \ubc18\uc601\ub41c \u2018\uc55e\uc73c\ub85c \uac00\uaca9\uc774 \uc5bc\ub9c8\ub098 \ud754\ub4e4\ub9b4\uc9c0\u2019\uc5d0 \ub300\ud55c \uc2dc\uc7a5\uc758 \uc608\uc0c1)\uc774 \uc2e4\uc81c \ucde8\uc57d\uc131\uc5d0 \ube44\ud574 \ub0ae\uc544 \ubcf4\uc774\uae30 \ub54c\ubb38\uc774\ub2e4. \uae08\uc735\uc2dc\uc7a5\uc774 \uc608\uc0c1\ud558\uc9c0 \ubabb\ud55c \uae09\ub4f1\uc5d0 \ub300\ube44\ud558\ub824\uba74, \uc6d0\uc720 \uc7a5\uae30 \ucf5c\uc635\uc158(\uc55e\uc73c\ub85c \uc815\ud55c \uac00\uaca9\uc5d0 \uc0b4 \uc218 \uc788\ub294 \uad8c\ub9ac; \uac00\uaca9 \uae09\ub4f1 \uc2dc \uc774\uc775\uc774\ub098 \uc190\uc2e4 \ubc29\uc5b4\uc5d0 \ub3c4\uc6c0)\uc744 \ub9e4\uc218\ud558\ub294 \ubc29\uc548\uc744 \uace0\ub824\ud560 \ub9cc\ud558\ub2e4. \ud654\uba74\uc0c1 \uc548\uc815\ub41c \uac00\uaca9\uacfc, \uc2e4\uc81c \uc6d0\uc720 \ubb3c\ub7c9 \ubc0f \uc720\ud669\u00b7\ube44\ub8cc \uac19\uc740 \uad00\ub828 \uc81c\ud488\uc5d0 \ucee4\uc9c0\ub294 \uc704\ud5d8 \uc0ac\uc774\uc758 \uad34\ub9ac\ub294 \ub354 \uc774\uc0c1 \ubb34\uc2dc\ud558\uae30 \uc5b4\ub835\ub2e4.\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph-->\n<p><b>VT Markets \ub77c\uc774\ube0c \uacc4\uc815\uc744 \ub9cc\ub4e4\uace0 \uc9c0\uae08 \ubc14\ub85c <a href=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr\/trade-now\/\">\uac70\ub798<\/a>\ub97c \uc2dc\uc791\ud558\uc138\uc694.<\/b><\/p>\n<!-- \/wp:post-content -->","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>\ube0c\ub80c\ud2b8 85\ub2ec\ub7ec \u2018\ud3c9\uc628\u2019\uc740 \ucc29\uc2dc: \ud638\ub974\ubb34\uc988 \uae34\uc7a5\u00b7\uae30\ub8b0 \uc704\ud611\uacfc \ubbf8\u00b7\uc774\ub780 \ucda9\ub3cc\uc5d0 \ube44\ud574 \uc720\uac00\ub294 \uc704\ud5d8\uc744 \uacfc\uc18c\ubc18\uc601. IEA \ube44\ucd95\uc720 \ubc29\ucd9c\uc740 \ub2e8\uae30 \uc644\ucda9\ubfd0, \uc2e4\ubb3c \ubd80\uc871\u00b7\uc635\uc158 \uaf2c\ub9ac\uc704\ud5d8 \ud655\ub300. &#8211; vtmarkets.com<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":103,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-40536","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/40536","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/103"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=40536"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/40536\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=40536"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=40536"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=40536"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}