{"id":40419,"date":"2026-03-10T21:43:23","date_gmt":"2026-03-10T21:43:23","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr\/uncategorized\/%ed%95%98%eb%8b%a4%eb%93%9c-%ec%9c%a0%ea%b0%80-%ed%95%98%eb%9d%bd%ec%97%90-%eb%85%b8%eb%a5%b4%ec%9b%a8%ec%9d%b4-%ed%81%ac%eb%a1%9c%eb%84%a4-%ec%95%bd%ec%84%b82%ec%9b%94-%eb%ac%bc\/"},"modified":"2026-03-10T21:43:23","modified_gmt":"2026-03-10T21:43:23","slug":"%ed%95%98%eb%8b%a4%eb%93%9c-%ec%9c%a0%ea%b0%80-%ed%95%98%eb%9d%bd%ec%97%90-%eb%85%b8%eb%a5%b4%ec%9b%a8%ec%9d%b4-%ed%81%ac%eb%a1%9c%eb%84%a4-%ec%95%bd%ec%84%b82%ec%9b%94-%eb%ac%bc","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/live-updates\/%ed%95%98%eb%8b%a4%eb%93%9c-%ec%9c%a0%ea%b0%80-%ed%95%98%eb%9d%bd%ec%97%90-%eb%85%b8%eb%a5%b4%ec%9b%a8%ec%9d%b4-%ed%81%ac%eb%a1%9c%eb%84%a4-%ec%95%bd%ec%84%b82%ec%9b%94-%eb%ac%bc\/","title":{"rendered":"\ud558\ub2e4\ub4dc \u201c\uc720\uac00 \ud558\ub77d\uc5d0 \ub178\ub974\uc6e8\uc774 \ud06c\ub85c\ub124 \uc57d\uc138\u20262\uc6d4 \ubb3c\uac00, \ub178\ub974\uc6e8\uc774 \uc911\uc559\uc740\ud589 \uc804\ub9dd \uc0c1\ud68c\ub85c \uae08\ub9ac \uc778\ud558 \ubd80\ub2f4\u201d"},"content":{"rendered":"\ub178\ub974\uc6e8\uc774 \ud06c\ub85c\ub124(NOK)\ub294 \uad6d\uc81c \uc720\uac00(\uc6d0\uc720 \uac00\uaca9) \ud558\ub77d\uacfc \ud568\uaed8 \uc57d\uc138\ub97c \ubcf4\uc600\uc9c0\ub9cc, \ub178\ub974\uc6e8\uc774\uc758 2\uc6d4 \ubb3c\uac00\uc0c1\uc2b9\ub960\uc740 \ub178\ub974\uc6e8\uc774 \uc911\uc559\uc740\ud589\uc778 \ub178\ub974\uac8c\uc2a4\ubc29\ud06c(Norges Bank)\uc758 \uc804\ub9dd\uce58\ub97c \uc6c3\ub3cc\uc558\ub2e4. \uc18c\ube44\uc790\ubb3c\uac00\uc9c0\uc218(CPI\u00b7\uac00\uacc4\uac00 \uc0ac\ub294 \uc0c1\ud488\u00b7\uc11c\ube44\uc2a4 \uac00\uaca9 \ubcc0\ud654\ub97c \ubcf4\uc5ec\uc8fc\ub294 \ub300\ud45c \ubb3c\uac00\uc9c0\ud45c) \uc0c1\uc2b9\ub960\uc740 \uc804\ub144 \ub300\ube44 2.7%\ub85c, 1\uc6d4 3.6%\uc5d0\uc11c \ub0ae\uc544\uc84c\ub2e4(\uc2dc\uc7a5 \uc608\uc0c1 2.8%, \ub178\ub974\uac8c\uc2a4\ubc29\ud06c 1.9%).\n\n\ubcc0\ub3d9\uc131\uc774 \ud070 \ud488\ubaa9\uc744 \uc77c\ubd80 \uc81c\uc678\ud574 \uae30\uc870 \ubb3c\uac00\ub97c \ubcf4\uc5ec\uc8fc\ub294 \uadfc\uc6d0 CPI(Underlying CPI) \uc0c1\uc2b9\ub960\uc740 \uc804\ub144 \ub300\ube44 3.0%\ub85c 1\uc6d4 3.4%\uc5d0\uc11c \ub454\ud654\ud574 4\uac1c\uc6d4 \ub9cc\uc758 \ucd5c\uc800\uce58\ub97c \uae30\ub85d\ud588\ub2e4(\uc2dc\uc7a5 \uc608\uc0c1 3.0%, \ub178\ub974\uac8c\uc2a4\ubc29\ud06c 2.6%). \ub2e4\ub9cc \ubb3c\uac00\uac00 \uc911\uc559\uc740\ud589 \uc608\uc0c1\ubcf4\ub2e4 \uc5ec\uc804\ud788 \ub192\uc544, \ud1b5\ud654\uc815\ucc45(\uae30\uc900\uae08\ub9ac \uc6b4\uc6a9) \uc804\ub9dd\uc758 \ubd88\ud655\uc2e4\uc131\uc744 \ud0a4\uc6b4\ub2e4.\n\n

\uc815\ucc45 \uae30\ub300\uc640 \uc2dc\uc7a5 \uac00\uaca9 \ubc18\uc601<\/h3>\n1\uc6d4 \ub178\ub974\uac8c\uc2a4\ubc29\ud06c\ub294 \uae30\uc900\uae08\ub9ac\ub97c 25bp(\ubca0\uc774\uc2dc\uc2a4\ud3ec\uc778\ud2b8\u00b70.01%\ud3ec\uc778\ud2b8) \ud55c \ucc28\ub840 \uc778\ud558\ud574 4\ubd84\uae30(Q4) \uc815\ucc45\uae08\ub9ac\ub97c 3.75%\ub85c \ub0ae\ucd9c \uac83\uc73c\ub85c \uc804\ub9dd\ud588\ub2e4. \ud55c\ud3b8 \uae08\ub9ac\uc2a4\uc651(\uace0\uc815\uae08\ub9ac\uc640 \ubcc0\ub3d9\uae08\ub9ac\ub97c \uad50\ud658\ud558\ub294 \ud30c\uc0dd\uc0c1\ud488) \uc2dc\uc7a5\uc5d0\uc11c \uc77d\ud788\ub294 \uc2a4\uc651 \uace1\uc120(swaps curve)\uc740 \ud5a5\ud6c4 12\uac1c\uc6d4 \ub3d9\uc548 \uae08\ub9ac \uc778\uc0c1 \uac00\ub2a5\uc131\ub3c4 \uc18c\ud3ed \ubc18\uc601\ud558\uace0 \uc788\ub2e4.\n\n\ubcf4\uace0\uc11c\ub294 \uacbd\uae30 \ub0b4 \uc720\ud734(\ub0a8\ub294) \uc0dd\uc0b0\ub2a5\ub825\uc774 \ub298\uc5b4\ub098\uba74 \uc2dc\uc7a5\uc758 \uae08\ub9ac\uc778\ud558 \uae30\ub300\uac00 \uc870\uc815\ub420 \uc218 \uc788\ub2e4\uace0 \uc9c0\uc801\ud588\ub2e4. \ub178\ub974\uac8c\uc2a4\ubc29\ud06c\ub294 2026\ub144 \uc0b0\ucd9c\uac2d(output gap\u00b7\uc2e4\uc81c \uc0dd\uc0b0\uc774 \uc7a0\uc7ac \uc0dd\uc0b0\ub2a5\ub825 \ub300\ube44 \uc5bc\ub9c8\ub098 \uacfc\uc5f4\/\ubd80\uc9c4\ud55c\uc9c0 \ub098\ud0c0\ub0b4\ub294 \uc9c0\ud45c)\uc774 \uc7a0\uc7ac GDP \ub300\ube44 \ud3c9\uade0 -0.2%\uac00 \ub420 \uac83\uc73c\ub85c \ubd24\ub2e4. 2025\ub144 \uc804\ub9dd\uce58\ub294 0%\uc600\ub2e4.\n\n\uc774 \uae30\uc0ac\ub294 AI \ub3c4\uad6c\uc758 \ub3c4\uc6c0\uc744 \ubc1b\uc544 \uc791\uc131\ub418\uace0 \ud3b8\uc9d1\uc790\uc758 \uac80\ud1a0\ub97c \uac70\ucce4\ub2e4\uace0 \ubc1d\ud614\ub2e4.\n\n

NOK \uac70\ub798 \uc2dc\uc0ac\uc810<\/h3>\n\uc9c0\ub09c\ud574 \ub0b4\ub0b4 \ub354 \ud575\uc2ec\uc801\uc778 \ud750\ub984\uc740 \ub048\uc9c8\uae34 \uc778\ud50c\ub808\uc774\uc158(\ubb3c\uac00 \uc0c1\uc2b9)\uc774 \ub178\ub974\uac8c\uc2a4\ubc29\ud06c\uc758 \ud1b5\ud654\uc644\ud654(\uae08\ub9ac \uc778\ud558) \uc5ec\uc9c0\ub97c \uc81c\ud55c\ud588\ub2e4\ub294 \uc810\uc774\ub2e4.\n\n2025\ub144 \ub0b4\ub0b4 \ub178\ub974\uac8c\uc2a4\ubc29\ud06c\ub294 4\ubd84\uae30\uae4c\uc9c0 \uc2dc\uc7a5\uc774 \ubc18\uc601\ud588\ub358 \uae08\ub9ac \uc778\ud558\ub97c \ub2e8\ud589\ud558\uc9c0 \uc54a\uc558\ub2e4. \ub300\uc2e0 \uadfc\uc6d0 \uc778\ud50c\ub808\uc774\uc158\uc774 \uc27d\uac8c \uaebe\uc774\uc9c0 \uc54a\uc544 2025\ub144 \ud558\ubc18\uae30 \ud3c9\uade0 3.1%\ub97c \uae30\ub85d\ud588\uace0, \uc774\uc5d0 \uc815\ucc45\uae08\ub9ac\ub97c 4.00%\ub85c \ub3d9\uacb0\ud588\ub2e4. \uc791\ub144 \ub9d0\ubd80\ud130 \uae08\ub9ac \uc778\ud558\ub97c \uc2dc\uc791\ud55c \uc720\ub7fd\uc911\uc559\uc740\ud589(ECB)\uacfc\uc758 \uc815\ucc45 \ubc29\ud5a5 \ucc28\uc774\ub294 \ud06c\ub85c\ub124\ub97c \uc9c0\uc9c0\ud55c \ud575\uc2ec \uc694\uc778\uc73c\ub85c \uaf3d\ud78c\ub2e4.\n\n2025\ub144 \ucd08 \uc720\uac00 \ud558\ub77d\uc5d0 \ub300\ud55c \uc6b0\ub824\ub3c4 \uacb0\uacfc\uc801\uc73c\ub85c \uc77c\uc2dc\uc801\uc774\uc5c8\ub2e4. \ube0c\ub80c\ud2b8\uc720(Brent\u00b7\ubd81\ud574\uc0b0 \uc6d0\uc720\ub85c \uad6d\uc81c \uc720\uac00\uc758 \ub300\ud45c \ubca4\uce58\ub9c8\ud06c)\ub294 \uc870\uc815 \uc774\ud6c4 \ud68c\ubcf5\ud574 \uc791\ub144 \ub9d0 \ubc30\ub7f4\ub2f9 85\ub2ec\ub7ec \uc120\uc73c\ub85c \ub418\ub3cc\uc544\uac00\uba70 NOK\uc5d0 \uc6b0\ud638\uc801\uc778 \ud658\uacbd\uc744 \ub9cc\ub4e4\uc5c8\ub2e4. \uc720\uac00 \uac15\uc138\ub294 \uad6d\ub0b4 \uacbd\uae30 \ub454\ud654 \uc6b0\ub824 \uc77c\ubd80\ub97c \uc0c1\uc1c4\ud588\ub2e4.\n\n2026\ub144 3\uc6d4 \ud604\uc7ac\ub3c4 \uc0c1\ud669\uc740 \ubcf5\uc7a1\ud558\ub2e4. \uacbd\uae30\ub294 \ub454\ud654 \uc870\uc9d0\uc774 \ub098\ud0c0\ub098 \uc0b0\ucd9c\uac2d\uc774 \ub9c8\uc774\ub108\uc2a4\ub85c \ud655\uc778\ub410\uc9c0\ub9cc, \ubb3c\uac00\uac00 2% \ubaa9\ud45c\ub85c \ub69c\ub837\ud558\uac8c \ub0b4\ub824\uc624\uc9c0 \ubabb\ud558\uace0 \uc788\ub2e4. \uacbd\uae30 \ub454\ud654\uc640 \ub192\uc740 \ubb3c\uac00\uac00 \ub3d9\uc2dc\uc5d0 \ub098\ud0c0\ub098\ub294 \uc774 \uae34\uc7a5\uc740 \ubd88\ud655\uc2e4\uc131\uc744 \ud0a4\uc6b0\uba70, EUR\/NOK \uac19\uc740 \ud1b5\ud654\uc30d(\ub450 \ud1b5\ud654\uc758 \ud658\uc728)\uc5d0\uc11c \ubcc0\ub3d9\uc131 \ud655\ub300\ub97c \uc720\ubc1c\ud558\uae30 \uc26c\uc6b4 \ud658\uacbd\uc774\ub2e4.\n\n\ud30c\uc0dd\uc0c1\ud488(\uae30\ucd08\uc790\uc0b0 \uac00\uaca9\uc5d0 \uc5f0\ub3d9\ub418\ub294 \uae08\uc735\uc0c1\ud488) \ud22c\uc790\uc790 \uad00\uc810\uc5d0\uc11c\ub294 \ud070 \uac00\uaca9 \ubcc0\ub3d9\uc5d0\uc11c \uc774\uc775\uc744 \ub178\ub9ac\ub294 \uc635\uc158 \uc804\ub7b5\uc774 \ub9e4\ub825\uc801\uc77c \uc218 \uc788\ub2e4. EUR\/NOK\uac00 \uc218 \uc8fc\uac04 11.50~11.70\uc758 \ube44\uad50\uc801 \uc881\uc740 \ubc94\uc704\uc5d0 \uac07\ud788\uba74\uc11c \ub0b4\uc7ac\ubcc0\ub3d9\uc131(implied volatility\u00b7\uc635\uc158 \uac00\uaca9\uc5d0 \ubc18\uc601\ub41c \u2018\uc608\uc0c1 \ubcc0\ub3d9\uc131\u2019)\uc740 \ub0ae\uc740 \ud3b8\uc774\ub2e4. \uc2a4\ud2b8\ub798\ub4e4(straddle\u00b7\uac19\uc740 \ud589\uc0ac\uac00\/\ub9cc\uae30\uc758 \ucf5c\uc635\uc158\uacfc \ud48b\uc635\uc158\uc744 \ub3d9\uc2dc\uc5d0 \ub9e4\uc218)\uc774\ub098 \uc2a4\ud2b8\ub7ad\uae00(strangle\u00b7\uc11c\ub85c \ub2e4\ub978 \ud589\uc0ac\uac00\uc758 \ucf5c\u00b7\ud48b\uc744 \ub3d9\uc2dc\uc5d0 \ub9e4\uc218)\uc744 \ud1b5\ud574 \ub2e4\uc74c \ubb3c\uac00 \uc9c0\ud45c \ubc1c\ud45c\ub098 \ub178\ub974\uac8c\uc2a4\ubc29\ud06c \ud68c\uc758\ub97c \uc55e\ub450\uace0 \ubcc0\ub3d9\uc131 \ud655\ub300(\ubc15\uc2a4\uad8c \uc774\ud0c8)\uc5d0 \ub300\ube44\ud558\ub294 \uc804\ub7b5\uc774 \ube44\uc6a9 \uce21\uba74\uc5d0\uc11c \ud6a8\uc728\uc801\uc77c \uc218 \uc788\ub2e4.\n\n\ub610 \ub178\ub974\uac8c\uc2a4\ubc29\ud06c\uac00 \uc8fc\uc694\uad6d\ubcf4\ub2e4 \ub354 \uc624\ub7ab\ub3d9\uc548 \ub192\uc740 \uae08\ub9ac\ub97c \uc720\uc9c0\ud560 \uac83\uc73c\ub85c \ubcf4\ub294 \ud22c\uc790\uc790\ub77c\uba74 \uc120\ub3c4\uc2dc\uc7a5(Forward market\u00b7\ubbf8\ub798 \ud2b9\uc815 \uc2dc\uc810\uc5d0 \ubbf8\ub9ac \uc815\ud55c \ud658\uc728\ub85c \uac70\ub798\ud558\ub294 \uc2dc\uc7a5)\ub3c4 \uad00\uc2ec \ub300\uc0c1\uc774\ub2e4. \uae08\ub9ac\ucc28(interest rate differential\u00b7\ub450 \ub098\ub77c \uae08\ub9ac \uaca9\ucc28)\uac00 \uacc4\uc18d \ud06c\ub85c\ub124\uc5d0 \uc720\ub9ac\ud574 \uc720\ub85c \ub300\ube44 NOK \ub9e4\uc218 \ud3ec\uc9c0\uc158\uc744 \ubcf4\uc720\ud558\uba74 \uc774\uc790\uc218\uc775 \uc131\uaca9\uc758 \uc218\uc775\uc744 \uc5bb\uc744 \uc218 \uc788\ub2e4. \uc774\ub7f0 \uce90\ub9ac \ud2b8\ub808\uc774\ub4dc(carry trade\u00b7\uae08\ub9ac\uac00 \ub192\uc740 \ud1b5\ud654\ub97c \ub9e4\uc218\ud558\uace0 \ub0ae\uc740 \ud1b5\ud654\ub97c \ub9e4\ub3c4\ud574 \uae08\ub9ac\ucc28 \uc218\uc775\uc744 \ub178\ub9ac\ub294 \uac70\ub798)\ub294 \uc2dc\uc7a5\uc774 \ub178\ub974\uc6e8\uc774\uc758 \uc784\ubc15\ud55c \uae08\ub9ac \uc778\ud558\ub97c \uacf5\uaca9\uc801\uc73c\ub85c \ubc18\uc601\ud558\uae30 \uc2dc\uc791\ud558\uc9c0\ub9cc \uc54a\uc73c\uba74 \uc720\ud6a8\ud558\ub2e4.\n

\n\n

\uc9c0\uae08 \ubc14\ub85c \uac70\ub798\ub97c \uc2dc\uc791\ud558\uc138\uc694 – VT Markets \uc2e4\uacc4\uc88c\ub97c \uac1c\uc124\ud558\ub824\uba74 \uc5ec\uae30<\/a>\ub97c \ud074\ub9ad\ud558\uc138\uc694 <\/strong> <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

\u2018\uc720\uac00 \ub0b4\ub838\ub294\ub370 \ubb3c\uac00\ub294 \ub192\ub2e4\u2019\u2026NOK \uc57d\uc138 \uc18d 2\uc6d4 CPI 2.7%\ub85c \ub178\ub974\uac8c\uc2a4\ubc29\ud06c \uc804\ub9dd \uc0c1\ud68c. \uae08\ub9ac\uc778\ud558 \ubd88\ud655\uc2e4\uc131 \ud655\ub300, \uc2a4\uc651\uc740 \uc778\uc0c1 \uac00\ub2a5\uc131\ub3c4. EUR\/NOK \ubcc0\ub3d9\uc131 \uc804\ub7b5\u00b7\uce90\ub9ac \uc8fc\ubaa9.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-40419","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/40419","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=40419"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/40419\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=40419"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=40419"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=40419"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}