{"id":40382,"date":"2026-03-10T16:44:38","date_gmt":"2026-03-10T16:44:38","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr\/uncategorized\/adp-%eb%8d%b0%ec%9d%b4%ed%84%b0%ec%97%90-%eb%94%b0%eb%a5%b4%eb%a9%b4-%eb%af%b8%ea%b5%ad%ec%9d%98-4%ec%a3%bc-%ec%9d%b4%eb%8f%99%ed%8f%89%ea%b7%a0-%ea%b3%a0%ec%9a%a9-%eb%b3%80%ed%99%94%eb%8a%94-15-5k\/"},"modified":"2026-03-10T16:44:38","modified_gmt":"2026-03-10T16:44:38","slug":"adp-%eb%8d%b0%ec%9d%b4%ed%84%b0%ec%97%90-%eb%94%b0%eb%a5%b4%eb%a9%b4-%eb%af%b8%ea%b5%ad%ec%9d%98-4%ec%a3%bc-%ec%9d%b4%eb%8f%99%ed%8f%89%ea%b7%a0-%ea%b3%a0%ec%9a%a9-%eb%b3%80%ed%99%94%eb%8a%94-15-5k","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/live-updates\/adp-%eb%8d%b0%ec%9d%b4%ed%84%b0%ec%97%90-%eb%94%b0%eb%a5%b4%eb%a9%b4-%eb%af%b8%ea%b5%ad%ec%9d%98-4%ec%a3%bc-%ec%9d%b4%eb%8f%99%ed%8f%89%ea%b7%a0-%ea%b3%a0%ec%9a%a9-%eb%b3%80%ed%99%94%eb%8a%94-15-5k\/","title":{"rendered":"ADP \ub370\uc774\ud130\uc5d0 \ub530\ub974\uba74 \ubbf8\uad6d\uc758 4\uc8fc \uc774\ub3d9\ud3c9\uade0 \uace0\uc6a9 \ubcc0\ud654\ub294 15.5K\ub85c, 12.8K\uc5d0\uc11c \uc0c1\uc2b9\ud588\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4."},"content":{"rendered":"\ubbf8\uad6d\uc758 ADP \uace0\uc6a9 \ubcc0\ud654(Employment Change) 4\uc8fc \ud3c9\uade0\uc740 2\uc6d4 14\uc77c \uae30\uc900 15.5K(\uc57d 1\ub9cc 5,500\uba85)\uc600\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4.\n\n\uc774\uc804 \uc218\uce58\ub294 12.8K(\uc57d 1\ub9cc 2,800\uba85)\uc600\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4.\n\n<h3>\ub178\ub3d9\uc2dc\uc7a5 \ud750\ub984\uc774 \uc57d\ud574\uc9d0<\/h3>\nADP \uace0\uc6a9 \uc218\uce58 4\uc8fc \ud3c9\uade0\uc774 15.5K\ub85c \uc18c\ud3ed \uc62c\ub77c\uac04 \uac83\uc740 \uc870\uc2ec\ud574\uc11c \ubd10\uc57c \ud569\ub2c8\ub2e4. \uc774 \uc22b\uc790\ub294 \uc5ed\uc0ac\uc801\uc73c\ub85c\ub3c4 \ub9e4\uc6b0 \ub0ae\uc740 \uc77c\uc790\ub9ac \uc99d\uac00 \uc18d\ub3c4\ub97c \ub73b\ud558\uba70, 2026\ub144 1\ubd84\uae30\uc5d0 \ub4e4\uc5b4\uc11c\uba74\uc11c \ub178\ub3d9\uc2dc\uc7a5\uc758 \ud798\uc774 \ub69c\ub837\ud558\uac8c \uc57d\ud574\uc9c0\uace0 \uc788\uc74c\uc744 \ubcf4\uc5ec\uc90d\ub2c8\ub2e4(\u2018\ubaa8\uba58\ud140\u2019=\ucd94\uc138\uac00 \uc774\uc5b4\uc9c0\ub294 \ud798). \uc774\ub7f0 \ud750\ub984\uc740 2025\ub144 \ud558\ubc18\uae30\ubd80\ud130 \uc774\uc5b4\uc9c4 \ud328\ud134\uacfc \uac19\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4.\n\n\uc9c0\ub09c\uc8fc \ubc1c\ud45c\ub41c 2\uc6d4 \uacf5\uc2dd \ube44\ub18d\uc5c5 \uace0\uc6a9\uc9c0\ud45c(Non-Farm Payrolls, \ub18d\uc5c5\uc744 \ube80 \uc804\uccb4 \uace0\uc6a9 \ubcc0\ud654)\ub3c4 \uc774\ub7f0 \uc57d\uc138\ub97c \ud655\uc778\ud574 \uc92c\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4. \uc77c\uc790\ub9ac\ub294 8\ub9cc 5\ucc9c \uac1c\ub9cc \ub298\uc5c8\uace0, \uc2e4\uc5c5\ub960(\uc77c\uc790\ub9ac\ub97c \ucc3e\uace0 \uc788\uc9c0\ub9cc \ubabb \uad6c\ud55c \uc0ac\ub78c\uc758 \ube44\uc728)\uc740 4.1%\ub85c \uc18c\ud3ed \uc62c\ub77c\uac14\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4. \ub610 \ucd5c\uadfc JOLTS(\uad6c\uc778\u00b7\uc774\uc9c1 \ud1b5\uacc4, \ucc44\uc6a9 \uacf5\uace0\uc640 \uc774\uc9c1 \ub4f1\uc744 \ubcf4\uc5ec\uc8fc\ub294 \uc790\ub8cc)\uc5d0\uc11c\ub294 \uad6c\uc778(Job openings, \uae30\uc5c5\uc774 \ucc44\uc6a9\ud558\ub824\uace0 \uc62c\ub824\ub454 \uc790\ub9ac)\uc774 2022\ub144 \uc774\ud6c4 \ucc98\uc74c\uc73c\ub85c 800\ub9cc \uac74 \uc544\ub798\ub85c \ub0b4\ub824\uac14\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4. \uc774\ub7f0 \uc218\uce58\ub4e4\uc740 \uacbd\uae30\uac00 \ube60\ub974\uac8c \uc2dd\uace0 \uc788\ub2e4\ub294 \ub73b\uc785\ub2c8\ub2e4.\n\n\ub530\ub77c\uc11c \uc6b0\ub9ac\ub294 \ubbf8 \uc5f0\uc900(Federal Reserve, \ubbf8\uad6d \uc911\uc559\uc740\ud589)\uc774 \ub2e4\uc74c \ud68c\uc758\uc5d0\uc11c \ub354 \ube44\ub458\uae30\ud30c(dovish, \uae08\ub9ac\ub97c \ub0b4\ub9ac\uac70\ub098 \ub3c8\uc744 \ud480\uc5b4 \uacbd\uae30\ub97c \ub3d5\ub294 \ucabd)\ub85c \uae30\uc6b8 \uac00\ub2a5\uc131\uc774 \ud06c\ub2e4\uace0 \ubd05\ub2c8\ub2e4. \ube44\ub458\uae30\ud30c\uc758 \ubc18\ub300\ub294 \ub9e4\ud30c(hawkish, \uae08\ub9ac\ub97c \uc62c\ub824 \ubb3c\uac00\ub97c \uc7a1\ub294 \ucabd)\uc785\ub2c8\ub2e4. \ucd08\uc810\ub3c4 \ubb3c\uac00(\uc778\ud50c\ub808\uc774\uc158)\ubcf4\ub2e4 \uc131\uc7a5 \uc9c0\uc6d0\uc73c\ub85c \uc62e\uaca8\uac00\uba70, \uac00\uae4c\uc6b4 \uc2dc\uae30\uc5d0 \uae08\ub9ac \uc778\ud558 \uac00\ub2a5\uc131\uc774 \ucee4\uc9c8 \uc218 \uc788\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4. \uc2dc\uc7a5\ub3c4 \uc774\ub97c \ubc18\uc601\ud558\uace0 \uc788\ub294\ub370, CME FedWatch(\uae08\ub9ac\uc120\ubb3c \uac00\uaca9\uc744 \ubc14\ud0d5\uc73c\ub85c \uae08\ub9ac \uacb0\uc815\uc744 \ud655\ub960\ub85c \ubcf4\uc5ec\uc8fc\ub294 \uc9c0\ud45c)\uc5d0\uc11c\ub294 5\uc6d4 \ud68c\uc758\uc5d0\uc11c 25bp(\ubca0\uc774\uc2dc\uc2a4 \ud3ec\uc778\ud2b8, 0.01%p) \uc778\ud558 \ud655\ub960\uc774 70%\ub97c \ub118\ub294 \uac83\uc73c\ub85c \ub098\ud0c0\ub0a9\ub2c8\ub2e4.\n\n\uc8fc\uac00\uc9c0\uc218 \ud30c\uc0dd\uc0c1\ud488(derivative, \uae30\ucd08\uc790\uc0b0 \uac00\uaca9\uc5d0 \ub530\ub77c \uac00\uce58\uac00 \uc6c0\uc9c1\uc774\ub294 \uacc4\uc57d: \uc635\uc158\u00b7\uc120\ubb3c \ub4f1) \uac70\ub798\uc790\uc5d0\uac8c\ub294 \u201c\ub098\uc05c \ub274\uc2a4\uac00 \uc624\ud788\ub824 \uc88b\uc740 \ub274\uc2a4\u201d\uac00 \ub418\ub294 \uc7a5(\uacbd\uae30 \uc57d\uc138 \u2192 \uae08\ub9ac \uc778\ud558 \uae30\ub300 \u2192 \uc8fc\uac00 \uc0c1\uc2b9)\uc744 \uc5fc\ub450\uc5d0 \ub454 \ud3ec\uc9c0\uc158\uc774 \uc720\ub9ac\ud560 \uc218 \uc788\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4. \uc608\ub97c \ub4e4\uc5b4 S&#038;P 500 \uac19\uc740 \uc9c0\uc218\uc5d0\uc11c SPX(\ubbf8\uad6d S&#038;P 500 \uc9c0\uc218 \uc635\uc158) \ucf5c \uc2a4\ud504\ub808\ub4dc(\ucf5c\uc635\uc158\uc744 \uc0ac\uace0 \ub354 \ub192\uc740 \ud589\uc0ac\uac00\uc758 \ucf5c\uc635\uc158\uc744 \ud30c\ub294 \uc870\ud569)\ub97c 4\uc6d4 \ub610\ub294 5\uc6d4 \ub9cc\uae30(expiration, \uc635\uc158\uc774 \ub05d\ub098\ub294 \ub0a0\uc9dc)\ub85c \uad6c\uc131\ud558\uba74, \uc644\ud654\uc801 \ud1b5\ud654\uc815\ucc45(central bank policy, \uc911\uc559\uc740\ud589\uc758 \uae08\ub9ac\u00b7\uc720\ub3d9\uc131 \uc815\ucc45) \uae30\ub300\uc5d0 \ub530\ub978 \uc0c1\uc2b9\uc744 \ub178\ub9b4 \uc218 \uc788\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4. \ubcc0\ub3d9\uc131\uc740 VIX(\uc8fc\uc2dd\uc2dc\uc7a5\uc758 \uacf5\ud3ec\uc9c0\uc218\ub85c \ubd88\ub9ac\ub294 \ubcc0\ub3d9\uc131 \uc9c0\uc218)\uac00 \uc544\uc9c1 15 \uc544\ub798\ub85c \ub0ae\uc740 \ud3b8\uc774\ub77c \uc635\uc158 \ud504\ub9ac\ubbf8\uc5c4(premium, \uc635\uc158 \uac00\uaca9)\uc774 \uc544\uc9c1\uc740 \uc0c1\ub300\uc801\uc73c\ub85c \uc2f8\uac8c \ub290\uaef4\uc9c8 \uc218 \uc788\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4.\n\n<h3>\ub2ec\ub7ec \uc57d\uc138 \uc555\ub825\uc774 \ucee4\uc9d0<\/h3>\n\uc774\ub7f0 \ud658\uacbd\uc740 \ubbf8\uad6d \ub2ec\ub7ec\uc5d0\ub3c4 \ubd88\ub9ac\ud560 \uc218 \uc788\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4. \uae08\ub9ac \uaca9\ucc28(interest rate differentials, \ub098\ub77c\ubcc4 \uae08\ub9ac \ucc28\uc774)\uac00 \ub2e4\ub978 \uc8fc\uc694 \ud1b5\ud654 \ub300\ube44 \uc904\uc5b4\ub4e4\uba74 \ub2ec\ub7ec \uac15\uc138 \uc694\uc778\uc774 \uc57d\ud574\uc9c0\uae30 \ub54c\ubb38\uc785\ub2c8\ub2e4. \uac70\ub798\uc790\ub294 DXY(\ubbf8\uad6d \ub2ec\ub7ec \uc778\ub371\uc2a4, \ub2ec\ub7ec\ub97c \uc5ec\ub7ec \ud1b5\ud654 \ubc14\uc2a4\ucf13\uacfc \ube44\uad50\ud55c \uc9c0\uc218) \ud48b\uc635\uc158(\uac00\uaca9\uc774 \ub0b4\ub824\uac00\uba74 \uc774\uc775\uc774 \ub098\ub294 \uc635\uc158)\uc744 \uc0ac\uac70\ub098, EUR\/USD \uc120\ubb3c\ub85c \uc720\ub85c \ucf5c\uc635\uc158(\uc720\ub85c\uac00 \uc624\ub974\uba74 \uc774\uc775)\uc744 \uace0\ub824\ud560 \uc218 \uc788\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4. \uc774\ub7f0 \uc6c0\uc9c1\uc784\uc740 2025\ub144 \ub9d0 \uc5f0\uc900\uc758 \ubc29\ud5a5 \uc804\ud658(pivot, \uc815\ucc45 \ubc29\ud5a5\uc744 \ubc14\uafb8\ub294 \uac83) \uc2e0\ud638\uac00 \ucc98\uc74c \ub098\uc624\uae30 \uc2dc\uc791\ud588\uc744 \ub54c\ub3c4 \uad00\uc2ec\uc744 \ubc1b\uc558\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4.\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph-->\n<p><b>VT Markets \ub77c\uc774\ube0c \uacc4\uc815\uc744 \ub9cc\ub4e4\uace0 \uc9c0\uae08 \ubc14\ub85c <a href=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr\/trade-now\/\">\uac70\ub798<\/a>\ub97c \uc2dc\uc791\ud558\uc138\uc694.<\/b><\/p>\n<!-- \/wp:post-content -->","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>ADP 4\uc8fc \ud3c9\uade0 \uace0\uc6a9 15.5K\ub85c \uc18c\ud3ed \uc0c1\uc2b9\ud588\uc9c0\ub9cc \uc5ed\uc0ac\uc801 \uc800\uc810\uc785\ub2c8\ub2e4. NFP\u00b7JOLTS\ub3c4 \ub0c9\uac01 \ud655\uc778. Fed \uae08\ub9ac\uc778\ud558 \uae30\ub300 \ud655\uc0b0. \uc8fc\uc2dd \uc635\uc158\u00b7\ucc44\uad8c \uac15\uc138, \ub2ec\ub7ec \uc57d\uc138 \uc555\ub825. &#8211; vtmarkets.com<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":103,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-40382","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/40382","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/103"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=40382"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/40382\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=40382"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=40382"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=40382"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}