{"id":40178,"date":"2026-03-09T15:44:38","date_gmt":"2026-03-09T15:44:38","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr\/uncategorized\/%eb%8f%84%ec%9d%b4%ec%b2%b4%eb%b0%a9%ed%81%ac-%ec%9d%b4%ec%bd%94%eb%85%b8%eb%af%b8%ec%8a%a4%ed%8a%b8-%ec%82%b0%ec%a0%9c%ec%9d%b4-%eb%9d%bc%ec%9e%90-%eb%8b%a4%ec%96%91%ed%95%9c-%ec%97%90%eb%84%88-2\/"},"modified":"2026-03-09T15:44:38","modified_gmt":"2026-03-09T15:44:38","slug":"%eb%8f%84%ec%9d%b4%ec%b2%b4%eb%b0%a9%ed%81%ac-%ec%9d%b4%ec%bd%94%eb%85%b8%eb%af%b8%ec%8a%a4%ed%8a%b8-%ec%82%b0%ec%a0%9c%ec%9d%b4-%eb%9d%bc%ec%9e%90-%eb%8b%a4%ec%96%91%ed%95%9c-%ec%97%90%eb%84%88-2","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/live-updates\/%eb%8f%84%ec%9d%b4%ec%b2%b4%eb%b0%a9%ed%81%ac-%ec%9d%b4%ec%bd%94%eb%85%b8%eb%af%b8%ec%8a%a4%ed%8a%b8-%ec%82%b0%ec%a0%9c%ec%9d%b4-%eb%9d%bc%ec%9e%90-%eb%8b%a4%ec%96%91%ed%95%9c-%ec%97%90%eb%84%88-2\/","title":{"rendered":"\ub3c4\uc774\uccb4\ubc29\ud06c \uc774\ucf54\ub178\ubbf8\uc2a4\ud2b8 \uc0b0\uc81c\uc774 \ub77c\uc790, \ub2e4\uc591\ud55c \uc5d0\ub108\uc9c0 \ucda9\uaca9 \uc2dc\ub098\ub9ac\uc624\uc5d0 \ub300\ud55c \uc601\ub780\uc740\ud589\uacfc \uc601\uad6d \uc815\ubd80\uc758 \ub300\uc751\uc744 \ud3c9\uac00\ud558\ub2e4"},"content":{"rendered":"\ub3c4\uc774\uccb4\ubc29\ud06c\ub294 \uc5d0\ub108\uc9c0 \ucda9\uaca9(\uc5d0\ub108\uc9c0 \uac00\uaca9\uc774 \uac11\uc790\uae30 \ud06c\uac8c \uc624\ub974\uac70\ub098 \ub0b4\ub824 \uacbd\uc81c\uc640 \ubb3c\uac00\uc5d0 \uc601\ud5a5\uc744 \uc8fc\ub294 \uc0c1\ud669)\uc774 \uc5b4\ub5a4 \ubc29\ud5a5\uc73c\ub85c \uc804\uac1c\ub418\ub290\ub0d0\uc5d0 \ub530\ub77c, \uc601\ub780\uc740\ud589(BOE, \uc601\uad6d\uc758 \uc911\uc559\uc740\ud589)\uacfc \uc601\uad6d \uc815\ubd80\uac00 \ucde8\ud560 \uc218 \uc788\ub294 \ub300\uc751\uc744 \uc138 \uac00\uc9c0\ub85c \uc81c\uc2dc\ud588\ub2e4. \uc2dc\ub098\ub9ac\uc624\ub294 \uc8fc\ub85c **\uae08\ub9ac \uc778\ud558(\uae30\uc900\uae08\ub9ac\ub97c \ub0ae\ucd94\ub294 \uc870\uce58) \uc2dc\uc810**\uacfc **\uac00\uacc4 \uc7ac\uc815 \uc9c0\uc6d0(\uc815\ubd80\uac00 \uc138\uae08\u00b7\ubcf4\uc870\uae08 \ub4f1\uc73c\ub85c \uac00\uacc4 \ubd80\ub2f4\uc744 \ub35c\uc5b4\uc8fc\ub294 \uac83) \uaddc\ubaa8**\uc5d0\uc11c \ucc28\uc774\uac00 \ub09c\ub2e4. \n\n\uc2dc\ub098\ub9ac\uc624 1\uc740 \ucda9\uaca9\uc774 \ube68\ub9ac \uc57d\ud574\uc9c4\ub2e4\uace0 \ubcf8\ub2e4. \uc601\ub780\uc740\ud589\uc774 **\uae30\uc900\uae08\ub9ac(\uc815\ucc45\uae08\ub9ac, \uc911\uc559\uc740\ud589\uc774 \uc815\ud558\ub294 \ub300\ud45c \uae08\ub9ac)**\ub97c \ub450 \ubc88 \uc778\ud558\ud574 **3.25%**\ub85c \ub0ae\ucd98\ub2e4. \ub2e4\uc74c \uc778\ud558\ub294 4\uc6d4\/6\uc6d4\ub85c \ubcf4\uace0, \uadf8\ub2e4\uc74c\uc740 7\uc6d4 \ub610\ub294 9\uc6d4(\ub2a6\uc5ec\ub984)\ub85c \ubcf8\ub2e4. \uc774 \uacbd\uc6b0 \uc815\ubd80\uc758 \ud070 \uc7ac\uc815 \uc870\uce58\ub294 \uc5c6\uc744 \uac83\uc73c\ub85c \uc608\uc0c1\ud55c\ub2e4. \n\n

Three Scenario Framework<\/h3> \n\uc2dc\ub098\ub9ac\uc624 2\ub3c4 \ub450 \ubc88 \uc778\ud558\ud574 3.25%\ub85c \uac04\ub2e4\ub294 \uc810\uc740 \uac19\uc9c0\ub9cc, \uc778\ud558 \uac04\uaca9\uc774 \ub354 \uae38\ub2e4. \ud55c \ubc88\uc740 \uc5ec\ub984, \ub610 \ud55c \ubc88\uc740 \uc5f0\ub9d0\u00b7\uc5f0\ucd08 \ubb34\ub835\uc774\ub2e4. \ub3d9\uc2dc\uc5d0 **\uc5f0\ub8cc\uc138(fuel duty, \ud718\ubc1c\uc720\u00b7\uacbd\uc720 \ub4f1\uc5d0 \ubd99\ub294 \uc138\uae08)** \uc9c0\uc6d0\uc774 \ud568\uaed8 \uac70\ub860\ub41c\ub2e4. \uc5f0\ub8cc\uc138\ub294 8\uc6d4\ubd80\ud130 \uc778\uc0c1\ub420 \uc608\uc815\uc774\uae30 \ub54c\ubb38\uc774\ub2e4. \n\n\uc2dc\ub098\ub9ac\uc624 3\uc740 \uc5d0\ub108\uc9c0 \uc704\uae30\uac00 \uc774\uc5b4\uc9c4\ub2e4\uace0 \ubcf8\ub2e4. \uadf8 \uacb0\uacfc **\ud1b5\ud654 \uc644\ud654(\uae08\ub9ac \uc778\ud558\ucc98\ub7fc \ub3c8\uc744 \ube4c\ub9ac\uae30 \uc27d\uac8c \ub9cc\ub4dc\ub294 \uc815\ucc45)**\uac00 \ub2a6\uc5b4\uc9c0\uace0, \uc815\ubd80\uc758 \uc7ac\uc815 \uc9c0\uc6d0\ub3c4 \ub354 \ucee4\uc9c4\ub2e4. \ub2e4\uc74c \uae08\ub9ac \uc778\ud558\ub294 **2026\ub144 4\ubd84\uae30(Q4-26, 2026\ub144 10~12\uc6d4)**\ub85c \ubc00\ub9b0\ub2e4. \ud55c\ud3b8 **\ucd5c\uc885 \uae08\ub9ac(terminal rate, \uc774\ubc88 \uc0ac\uc774\ud074\uc5d0\uc11c \uae08\ub9ac\uac00 \ub3c4\ub2ec\ud560 \uac83\uc73c\ub85c \ubcf4\ub294 \ucd5c\uace0 \uc218\uc900)** \uc804\ub9dd\uc740 3.25%\uc5d0\uc11c 3.5%\ub85c \uc62c\ub77c\uac04\ub2e4. \uc815\ubd80\ub294 **\uc5f0\ub8cc\uc138 \ub3d9\uacb0(freeze, \uc138\uae08\uc744 \uc62c\ub9ac\uc9c0 \uc54a\uace0 \uadf8\ub300\ub85c \ub450\ub294 \uac83)** \uc5f0\uc7a5\uc744 \uac80\ud1a0\ud558\uace0, **\uc5f0\ub8cc\uc138\ub97c \uc77c\uc2dc\uc801\uc73c\ub85c \uc778\ud558(temporary cut, \uc7a0\uae50 \ub0ae\ucd94\ub294 \uac83)**\ud558\ub294 \ubc29\uc548\ub3c4 \uace0\ub824\ud560 \uc218 \uc788\ub2e4. \n\n\ucd5c\uadfc \uc5d0\ub108\uc9c0 \uac00\uaca9 \uae09\ub4f1\uc740 \uc601\uad6d \uc815\ucc45 \ubc29\ud5a5\uc5d0 \ub300\ud55c \ubd88\uc548\uc744 \ud0a4\uc6b0\uace0 \uc788\ub2e4. \uc9c0\ub09c\uc8fc **\ube0c\ub80c\ud2b8\uc720 \uc120\ubb3c(Brent crude futures, \ubbf8\ub798 \uc778\ub3c4 \uc2dc\uc810\uc758 \uc720\uac00\ub97c \ubbf8\ub9ac \uc815\ud558\ub294 \uac70\ub798)**\uc774 \ubc30\ub7f4\ub2f9 92\ub2ec\ub7ec\ub97c \ub118\uc5c8\uace0, \uc601\uad6d **\uad6d\uac00\ud1b5\uacc4\uccad(ONS, \uc601\uad6d \uc815\ubd80 \ud1b5\uacc4 \uae30\uad00)** \ucd5c\uc2e0 \uc790\ub8cc\uc5d0\uc11c\ub294 **\uc778\ud50c\ub808\uc774\uc158(\ubb3c\uac00 \uc0c1\uc2b9\ub960)**\uc774 \uc608\uc0c1\uacfc \ub2ec\ub9ac 3.1%\ub85c \uc62c\ub77c \uc555\ubc15\uc774 \ucee4\uc84c\ub2e4. \uc774\ub7f0 \ubd88\ud655\uc2e4\uc131 \ub54c\ubb38\uc5d0 \uc55e\uc73c\ub85c \uba87 \ub2ec\uac04 \uae08\ub9ac \uacbd\ub85c\uac00 \uc5ec\ub7ec \uac08\ub798\ub85c \uac08\ub9b4 \uc218 \uc788\ub2e4. \n\n\uc774 \uc5d0\ub108\uc9c0 \uc0c1\ud669\uc774 \uc5b4\ub5bb\uac8c \uc804\uac1c\ub418\ub294\uc9c0\uac00 \uc601\ub780\uc740\ud589\uc758 \uae08\ub9ac \uc778\ud558 \uacb0\uc815\uc5d0 \uc9c1\uc811 \uc601\ud5a5\uc744 \uc900\ub2e4. \ube60\ub974\uac8c \uc9c4\uc815\ub418\ub294 \uacbd\uc6b0\ubd80\ud130 \uc7a5\uae30\ud654\ub418\ub294 \uacbd\uc6b0\uae4c\uc9c0, \uc138 \uac00\uc9c0 \ub69c\ub837\ud55c \uac00\ub2a5\uc131\uc774 \uc788\ub2e4. \uac01 \uc2dc\ub098\ub9ac\uc624\uc5d0\uc11c\ub294 **\uae08\ub9ac \uc2dc\uc7a5(\uad6d\ucc44\u00b7\uae08\ub9ac \ud30c\uc0dd\uc0c1\ud488 \ub4f1\uc774 \uac70\ub798\ub418\ub294 \uc2dc\uc7a5)**\uc5d0\uc11c\uc758 \ub300\uc751 \uc804\ub7b5\ub3c4 \ub2ec\ub77c\uc9c4\ub2e4. \n\n

Rates Market Positioning<\/h3> \n\uc5d0\ub108\uc9c0 \ucda9\uaca9\uc774 \ube68\ub9ac \uc57d\ud574\uc9c4\ub2e4\uace0 \ubcf8\ub2e4\uba74, \uae30\uc900\uc740 \uc5ec\uc804\ud788 \u2018\ub450 \ubc88 \uc778\ud558\u2019\ub2e4. 2025\ub144\uc5d0 \uc788\uc5c8\ub358 \uc815\ucc45 \uc644\ud654\ub97c \ub5a0\uc62c\ub9ac\uba74, \ube44\uc2b7\ud55c \ud750\ub984\uc5d0\uc11c\ub294 2\ubd84\uae30(4~6\uc6d4) \uc778\ud558\uc5d0 \ub9de\ucdb0 \uc900\ube44\ud558\ub294 \ucabd\uc774 \uc790\uc5f0\uc2a4\ub7fd\uace0, \uc2dc\uc810\uc740 6\uc6d4\uc774 \uc720\ub825\ud558\ub2e4. \uc774\ub294 \ud604\uc7ac \uc2dc\uc7a5\uc774 \u2018\uc778\ud558\uac00 \ub2a6\uc5b4\uc9c4\ub2e4\u2019\uace0 \ubcf4\ub294 \uac00\uaca9 \ubc18\uc601\uc774 \uc9c0\ub098\uce58\uac8c \uc870\uc2ec\uc2a4\ub7fd\ub2e4\ub294 \ub73b\uc774\ub2e4. \n\n\ubc18\ub300\ub85c \ucda9\uaca9\uc774 \ub354 \uc624\ub798 \uac00\uba74 \uae08\ub9ac \uc778\ud558 \uc2dc\uc810\uc740 \ub4a4\ub85c \ubc00\ub9ac\uace0, **\uc5f0\ub8cc\uc138 \uc644\ud654 \uac19\uc740 \uc7ac\uc815 \uc9c0\uc6d0** \uac00\ub2a5\uc131\ub3c4 \ucee4\uc9c4\ub2e4. \uc774 \uacbd\uc6b0 \uc5ec\ub984\uc5d0 \ud55c \ubc88, \uc5f0\ub9d0 \ubb34\ub835\uc5d0 \ud55c \ubc88\ub9cc \uc778\ud558\ud560 \uac83\uc73c\ub85c \ubcf8\ub2e4. \uc774\ub294 \uc2dc\uc7a5\uc774 \ub354 \ube60\ub978 \uc644\ud654\ub97c \uae30\ub300\ud558\ub294 \uac83\uacfc \ubc18\ub300\ub85c \uac00\ub294 \uc804\ub7b5\uc73c\ub85c, **\ub2e8\uae30 \uad6c\uac04 \uae08\ub9ac \uc120\ubb3c(\uc55e\ucabd \ub9cc\uae30\uc758 \uae08\ub9ac \uacc4\uc57d, \uac00\uae4c\uc6b4 \uc2dc\uc810 \uae08\ub9ac\ub97c \ubc18\uc601)**\uc744 \ub9e4\ub3c4\ud574 \uc2dc\uc7a5\uc758 \ub099\uad00\uc801 \uc778\ud558 \uc77c\uc815\uc5d0 \ubc18\ub300\ud558\ub294 \ubca0\ud305\uc744 \uc2dc\uc0ac\ud55c\ub2e4. \n\n\uc5d0\ub108\uc9c0 \uc704\uae30\uac00 \ub354 \uc545\ud654\ub418\uba74 \uc804\ub9dd \uc790\uccb4\uac00 \ub2ec\ub77c\uc838 **\ubcc0\ub3d9\uc131(\uac00\uaca9\uc774 \ud06c\uac8c \uc624\ub974\ub0b4\ub9ac\ub294 \uc815\ub3c4)**\uc744 \ud65c\uc6a9\ud558\ub294 \uc804\ub7b5\uc774 \ub9e4\ub825\uc801\uc77c \uc218 \uc788\ub2e4. \uc601\ub780\uc740\ud589\uc740 2026\ub144 4\ubd84\uae30\uae4c\uc9c0 \uc778\ud558\ub97c \ubbf8\ub8f0 \uac00\ub2a5\uc131\uc774 \ud06c\uace0, \uc608\uc0c1 \ucd5c\uc885 \uae08\ub9ac\ub294 3.25%\uc5d0\uc11c 3.5%\ub85c \uc62c\ub77c\uac08 \uc218 \uc788\ub2e4. \uc774\ub7f0 \uacb0\uacfc \ucc28\uc774\uac00 \ucee4\uc9c0\uba74 **SONIA \uc120\ubb3c \uc635\uc158(options on SONIA futures, \uc601\uad6d \ubb34\ub2f4\ubcf4 \uc775\uc77c\uae08\ub9ac \uc9c0\ud45c\uc778 SONIA\ub97c \ubc14\ud0d5\uc73c\ub85c \ud55c \uc120\ubb3c\uc5d0 \ub300\ud55c \u2018\uc0b4 \uad8c\ub9ac\/\ud314 \uad8c\ub9ac\u2019 \uacc4\uc57d)**\ucc98\ub7fc, \uae08\ub9ac\uac00 \uc5b4\ub290 \ubc29\ud5a5\uc73c\ub85c\ub4e0 \ud06c\uac8c \uc6c0\uc9c1\uc77c \ub54c \uc720\ub9ac\ud55c \ub3c4\uad6c\uac00 \ub3c4\uc6c0\uc774 \ub420 \uc218 \uc788\ub2e4.\n\n\n

VT Markets \ub77c\uc774\ube0c \uacc4\uc815\uc744 \ub9cc\ub4e4\uace0 \uc9c0\uae08 \ubc14\ub85c \uac70\ub798<\/a>\ub97c \uc2dc\uc791\ud558\uc138\uc694.<\/b><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

\uc5d0\ub108\uc9c0 \uac00\uaca9 \uae09\ub4f1\uc774 \uc601\uad6d \uae08\ub9ac\uc758 \uac08\ub9bc\uae38\uc744 \ub9cc\ub4e0\ub2e4: DB\ub294 \u2460\ube60\ub978 \uc9c4\uc815\u20144~6\uc6d4\u00b77~9\uc6d4 2\ud68c \uc778\ud558 3.25% \u2461\uc644\ub9cc\u2014\uc5ec\ub984\u00b7\uc5f0\ub9d0 2\ud68c+\uc720\ub958\uc138 \uc9c0\uc6d0 \u2462\uc7a5\uae30\u2014Q4-26\ub85c \uc9c0\uc5f0, 3.5%\u00b7\ub300\uaddc\ubaa8 \uc7ac\uc815, \uc635\uc158\u00b7\ubcc0\ub3d9\uc131 \uc804\ub7b5. – vtmarkets.com<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":103,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-40178","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/40178","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/103"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=40178"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/40178\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=40178"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=40178"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=40178"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}