{"id":39891,"date":"2026-03-06T10:44:59","date_gmt":"2026-03-06T10:44:59","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr\/uncategorized\/%eb%9d%bc%eb%b3%b4%eb%b1%85%ed%81%ac%ec%9d%98-%eb%9d%bc%eb%b3%b4%eb%a6%ac%ec%84%9c%ec%b9%98%eb%8a%94-%ec%a4%91%eb%8f%99-%ea%b8%b4%ec%9e%a5-%ea%b3%a0%ec%a1%b0-%ec%9c%a0%ea%b0%80-%ec%83%81%ec%8a%b9\/"},"modified":"2026-03-06T10:44:59","modified_gmt":"2026-03-06T10:44:59","slug":"%eb%9d%bc%eb%b3%b4%eb%b1%85%ed%81%ac%ec%9d%98-%eb%9d%bc%eb%b3%b4%eb%a6%ac%ec%84%9c%ec%b9%98%eb%8a%94-%ec%a4%91%eb%8f%99-%ea%b8%b4%ec%9e%a5-%ea%b3%a0%ec%a1%b0-%ec%9c%a0%ea%b0%80-%ec%83%81%ec%8a%b9","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/live-updates\/%eb%9d%bc%eb%b3%b4%eb%b1%85%ed%81%ac%ec%9d%98-%eb%9d%bc%eb%b3%b4%eb%a6%ac%ec%84%9c%ec%b9%98%eb%8a%94-%ec%a4%91%eb%8f%99-%ea%b8%b4%ec%9e%a5-%ea%b3%a0%ec%a1%b0-%ec%9c%a0%ea%b0%80-%ec%83%81%ec%8a%b9\/","title":{"rendered":"\ub77c\ubcf4\ubc45\ud06c\uc758 \ub77c\ubcf4\ub9ac\uc11c\uce58\ub294 \uc911\ub3d9 \uae34\uc7a5 \uace0\uc870, \uc720\uac00 \uc0c1\uc2b9\uacfc \uc720\ub7fd \uac00\uc2a4 \uac00\uaca9 \ubcc0\ud654\uac00 \uc720\ub85c\uc874\uc758 \uc778\ud50c\ub808\uc774\uc158\uacfc \uc131\uc7a5 \uc804\ub9dd\uc5d0 \uc5b4\ub5bb\uac8c \uc601\ud5a5\uc744 \ubbf8\uce58\ub294\uc9c0\ub97c \ubd84\uc11d\ud55c\ub2e4."},"content":{"rendered":"\ub77c\ubcf4\ubc45\ud06c(Rabobank)\uc758 \ub77c\ubcf4\ub9ac\uc11c\uce58(RaboResearch)\ub294 \uc911\ub3d9 \ubd84\uc7c1\uacfc \uadf8\uc5d0 \ub530\ub978 \ub354 \ub192\uc740 \uc720\uac00 \ubc0f \uc720\ub7fd \uac00\uc2a4 \uac00\uaca9\uc774 \uc720\ub85c\uc874(Eurozone, \uc720\ub85c\ud654\ub97c \uc4f0\ub294 \uad6d\uac00\ub4e4\uc758 \uacbd\uc81c\uad8c) \uacbd\uc81c\uc5d0 \uc5b4\ub5a4 \uc601\ud5a5\uc744 \uc904 \uc218 \uc788\ub294\uc9c0 \ubd84\uc11d\ud588\ub2e4. \uc5c5\ub370\uc774\ud2b8\ub41c \uae30\uc900 \uc2dc\ub098\ub9ac\uc624(baseline, \uac00\uc7a5 \uac00\ub2a5\uc131\uc774 \ub192\ub2e4\uace0 \uac00\uc815\ud55c \uae30\ubcf8 \uc804\ub9dd)\uc5d0 \ub530\ub974\uba74 2026\ub144 \ubb3c\uac00\uc0c1\uc2b9\ub960\uc740 \ubd84\uc7c1 \uc774\uc804 \uc804\ub9dd\ubcf4\ub2e4 \uc57d 0.5%p(\ud37c\uc13c\ud2b8\ud3ec\uc778\ud2b8, \ube44\uc728\uc758 \u2018\ucc28\uc774\u2019\ub97c \ub098\ud0c0\ub0b4\ub294 \ub2e8\uc704) \ub354 \ub192\uace0, \uc131\uc7a5\ub960\uc740 0.1%p \ub354 \ub0ae\ub2e4.\n\n\uc720\ub85c\uc874 HICP(\uc870\ud654 \uc18c\ube44\uc790\ubb3c\uac00\uc9c0\uc218, EU \uad6d\uac00 \uac04 \ube44\uad50\uac00 \uac00\ub2a5\ud558\ub3c4\ub85d \uae30\uc900\uc744 \ub9de\ucd98 \ubb3c\uac00 \uc9c0\ud45c) \ubb3c\uac00\uc0c1\uc2b9\ub960\uc740 2026\ub144\uc5d0 \ud3c9\uade0 2.4%\ub97c \uae30\ub85d\ud55c \ub4a4 2027\ub144\uc5d0\ub294 1.9%\ub85c \ub0ae\uc544\uc9c8 \uac83\uc73c\ub85c \uc804\ub9dd\ud588\ub2e4. \ub610\ud55c \ubcf4\uace0\uc11c\ub294 \uac08\ub4f1\uc774 \ub354 \ucee4\uc9c0\ub294 \uac01 \uc2dc\ub098\ub9ac\uc624(scenario, \uc0c1\ud669\ubcc4 \uac00\uc815)\uac00 \uc131\uc7a5\ub960\uc744 \ucd94\uac00\ub85c 0.1%p \ub354 \uae4e\ub294\ub2e4\uace0 \ubc1d\ud614\ub2e4.\n\n<h3>\uc5d0\ub108\uc9c0 \ucda9\uaca9\uacfc \ubb3c\uac00 \uc804\ub9dd<\/h3>\n\uac00\uc7a5 \ucda9\uaca9\uc774 \ud070 \uc2dc\ub098\ub9ac\uc624\ub294 \ud575\uc2ec \uc5d0\ub108\uc9c0 \uc778\ud504\ub77c(infrastructure, \uc5d0\ub108\uc9c0 \uc0dd\uc0b0\u00b7\uc218\uc1a1\uc5d0 \ud544\uc694\ud55c \uc8fc\uc694 \uc2dc\uc124)\uac00 \uc7a5\uae30\uac04 \uba48\ucd94\ub294 \uacbd\uc6b0\uc774\uba70, \uc774\ub54c \ubb3c\uac00\uc0c1\uc2b9\ub960\uc740 5%\ub97c \ub118\ub294\ub2e4. 2026\ub144 \ub9d0\uc5d0\ub294 6%\ub97c \uc6c3\ub3c4\ub294 \uc218\uc900\uae4c\uc9c0 \uce58\uc19f\ub294\ub2e4.\n\n\ub124 \uac00\uc9c0 \uc2dc\ub098\ub9ac\uc624 \uac00\uc6b4\ub370 \u2018\ud575\uc2ec \uc5d0\ub108\uc9c0 \uc778\ud504\ub77c \ud30c\uad34\u2019\ub85c \uc124\uba85\ub41c \uc2dc\ub098\ub9ac\uc624 3\ub9cc \uacbd\uc81c\uc131\uc7a5\ub960\uc774 0.7%p \ud558\ub77d\ud558\ub294 \uac83\uc73c\ub85c \ub098\ud0c0\ub0ac\ub2e4. 4\ub300 \ud68c\uc6d0\uad6d(\uc720\ub85c\uc874\uc5d0\uc11c \uacbd\uc81c \uaddc\ubaa8\uac00 \ud070 4\uac1c \uad6d\uac00) \uae30\uc900\uc73c\ub85c\ub294 \ub3c5\uc77c\uacfc \uc774\ud0c8\ub9ac\uc544\uc758 \ud0c0\uaca9\uc774 \ud504\ub791\uc2a4\uc640 \uc2a4\ud398\uc778\ubcf4\ub2e4 \ub354 \ud070 \uac83\uc73c\ub85c \uc804\ub9dd\ub410\ub2e4.\n\n\ud574\ub2f9 \uae00\uc740 AI(\uc778\uacf5\uc9c0\ub2a5, \uc0ac\ub78c\uc758 \ud559\uc2b5\u00b7\ucd94\ub860\uc744 \ud749\ub0b4 \ub0b4\ub294 \ucef4\ud4e8\ud130 \uae30\uc220) \ub3c4\uad6c\ub85c \uc791\uc131\ub410\uace0 \ud3b8\uc9d1\uc790\uac00 \uac80\ud1a0\ud588\ub2e4\uace0 \uc801\uc5c8\ub2e4.\n\n\uc911\ub3d9\ubc1c \uc5d0\ub108\uc9c0 \ucda9\uaca9\uc774 \uacbd\uc81c \ud658\uacbd\uc744 \ubc14\uafb8\uba74\uc11c, \uc6b0\ub9ac\ub294 \uc720\ub85c\uc874 \uc804\ub9dd\uc744 \uc870\uc815\ud558\uace0 \uc788\ub2e4. \ube0c\ub80c\ud2b8\uc720(Brent crude, \uad6d\uc81c \uc720\uac00\uc758 \ub300\ud45c \uae30\uc900) \uac00\uaca9\uc774 \ucd5c\uadfc 95\ub2ec\ub7ec\uae4c\uc9c0 \uc62c\ub790\uace0, TTF \uac00\uc2a4 \uc120\ubb3c(TTF gas futures, \ub124\ub35c\ub780\ub4dc TTF \uac70\ub798\uc18c \uae30\uc900\uc758 \uc720\ub7fd \uac00\uc2a4 \uac00\uaca9 \uc120\ubb3c)\uc774 45\uc720\ub85c\/MWh(\uba54\uac00\uc640\ud2b8\uc2dc, \uc804\ub825\u00b7\uac00\uc2a4 \uac70\ub798\uc5d0\uc11c \uc4f0\ub294 \uc5d0\ub108\uc9c0 \ub2e8\uc704) \uc704\uc5d0\uc11c \uac70\ub798\ub418\uba74\uc11c, \uc6b0\ub9ac \ubaa8\ub378(model, \ub370\uc774\ud130\ub97c \ubc14\ud0d5\uc73c\ub85c \uacb0\uacfc\ub97c \uc608\uce21\ud558\ub294 \uacc4\uc0b0 \uccb4\uacc4)\uc740 2026\ub144 \ud3c9\uade0 \ubb3c\uac00\uc0c1\uc2b9\ub960\uc744 2.4%\ub85c \uac00\ub9ac\ud0a8\ub2e4. \uc774\ub294 \uc9c0\uc815\ud559\uc801 \uc0ac\uac74(geopolitical events, \uad6d\uac00 \uac04 \uac08\ub4f1 \ub4f1 \uad6d\uc81c \uc815\uce58 \uc694\uc778)\uc774 \uad6d\ub0b4 \ubb3c\uac00\uc5d0 \uac15\ud558\uac8c \uc601\ud5a5\uc744 \uc900\ub2e4\ub294 \ub73b\uc774\ub2e4.\n\n<h3>\uc131\uc7a5 \uc704\ud5d8\uacfc \uc2dc\uc7a5 \uc601\ud5a5<\/h3>\n\uc720\ub85c\uc2a4\ud0c0\ud2b8(Eurostat, EU \ud1b5\uacc4\uae30\uad00)\uac00 \ub0b4\ub193\uc740 \ucd5c\uadfc \uc18d\ubcf4 \ucd94\uc815\uce58(flash estimate, \ube60\ub974\uac8c \uc0b0\ucd9c\ud55c \uc7a0\uc815 \ud1b5\uacc4)\uc5d0\uc11c 2\uc6d4 HICP \ubb3c\uac00\uc0c1\uc2b9\ub960\uc774 2.7%\ub85c \ub098\ud0c0\ub098, \uc774\ub7f0 \uc0c1\uc2b9 \ud750\ub984\uc744 \ud655\uc778\ud574 \uc900\ub2e4. \uc774\ub294 ECB(\uc720\ub7fd\uc911\uc559\uc740\ud589)\uc758 2% \ubaa9\ud45c\uc5d0\uc11c \ub354 \uba40\uc5b4\uc9c4 \uc218\uce58\ub2e4. \uadf8 \uacb0\uacfc \uae08\ub9ac \uc2dc\uc7a5(interest rate markets, \uae08\ub9ac \uc218\uc900\uc744 \ubc18\uc601\ud574 \ucc44\uad8c\u00b7\ud30c\uc0dd\uc0c1\ud488 \ub4f1\uc774 \uac70\ub798\ub418\ub294 \uc2dc\uc7a5)\uc740 \uc62c\ud574 \ub0a8\uc544 \uc788\ub358 \uae08\ub9ac \uc778\ud558 \uae30\ub300\ub97c \ube60\ub974\uac8c \uc9c0\uc6b0\uace0 \uc788\ub2e4. \uc774\ub7f0 \uc0c1\ud669\uc740 2022\ub144\uc5d0 \uc911\uc559\uc740\ud589\ub4e4\uc774 \uacaa\uc5c8\ub358 \uc5b4\ub824\uc6b4 \uc815\ucc45 \uc120\ud0dd\uc744 \ub5a0\uc62c\ub9ac\uac8c \ud55c\ub2e4.\n\n\ub3d9\uc2dc\uc5d0 \uacbd\uae30 \ud65c\ub3d9\uc740 \uc57d\ud574\uc9c0\uace0 \uc788\uc73c\uba70, 2026\ub144 \uc131\uc7a5\ub960 \uae30\uc900 \uc804\ub9dd\ub3c4 0.1%p \ub0ae\uc544\uc84c\ub2e4. \uc774\ub294 \uc9c0\ub09c\uc8fc \uc608\uc0c1\uacfc \ub2ec\ub9ac \ud558\ub77d\ud55c \ub3c5\uc77c Ifo \uae30\uc5c5\uacbd\uae30\uc9c0\uc218(Ifo Business Climate Index, \ub3c5\uc77c \uae30\uc5c5\ub4e4\uc758 \uacbd\uae30 \uccb4\uac10\uc744 \ubcf4\uc5ec\uc8fc\ub294 \uc9c0\ud45c)\ub85c\ub3c4 \ub4b7\ubc1b\uce68\ub418\uba70, \uc81c\uc870\uc5c5 \uc2ec\ub9ac(sentiment, \uae30\uc5c5\u00b7\uc18c\ube44\uc790\uc758 \uccb4\uac10 \ubd84\uc704\uae30)\uac00 \uc704\ucd95\ub418\uace0 \uc788\uc74c\uc744 \uc2dc\uc0ac\ud55c\ub2e4. \ubb3c\uac00 \uc0c1\uc2b9\uacfc \uc131\uc7a5 \ub454\ud654\uac00 \ud568\uaed8 \ub098\ud0c0\ub098 \uc55e\uc73c\ub85c \uc5b4\ub824\uc6b4 \uc2dc\uae30\uac00 \ub420 \uc218 \uc788\uc74c\uc744 \ubcf4\uc5ec\uc900\ub2e4.\n\n\uc774\uc81c \ud575\uc2ec \uc5d0\ub108\uc9c0 \uc778\ud504\ub77c\uac00 \uc190\uc0c1\ub418\ub294 \ub354 \ub098\uc05c \uc2dc\ub098\ub9ac\uc624\ub77c\ub294 \ud070 \uaf2c\ub9ac\uc704\ud5d8(tail risk, \ubc1c\uc0dd \ud655\ub960\uc740 \ub0ae\uc9c0\ub9cc \ubc1c\uc0dd\ud558\uba74 \ud53c\ud574\uac00 \ud070 \uc704\ud5d8)\ub3c4 \uace0\ub824\ud574\uc57c \ud55c\ub2e4. \uc774\ub7f0 \uacbd\uc6b0 \ubb3c\uac00\uc0c1\uc2b9\ub960\uc740 5%\ub97c \ub118\ub294 \uc218\uc900\uae4c\uc9c0 \uce58\uc19f\uc744 \uc218 \uc788\uc73c\uba70, \uacbd\uc81c\uc131\uc7a5\ub960\uc740 \ucd5c\ub300 0.7%p \ud558\ub77d\ud574 \uacbd\uae30\uce68\uccb4(recession, \uacbd\uc81c\ud65c\ub3d9\uc774 \uc804\ubc18\uc801\uc73c\ub85c \uc904\uc5b4\ub4dc\ub294 \uc0c1\ud0dc)\ub97c \uac70\uc758 \ud655\uc2e4\ud788 \ubd80\ub97c \uc218 \uc788\ub2e4. \ubcc0\ub3d9\uc131\uc774 \ub9e4\uc6b0 \ucee4\uc9c8 \uc218 \uc788\uc5b4, \uae09\uaca9\ud55c \uc2dc\uc7a5 \uc6c0\uc9c1\uc784\uc5d0 \ub300\ube44\ud558\ub294 \uc635\uc158(options, \uc815\ud574\uc9c4 \uac00\uaca9\uc5d0 \uc0ac\uace0\ud314 \uad8c\ub9ac\ub97c \uac70\ub798\ud558\ub294 \ud30c\uc0dd\uc0c1\ud488) \uc218\uc694\uac00 \ucee4\uc9c0\uace0 \uc788\ub2e4.\n\n4\ub300 \uacbd\uc81c\ub97c \ubcf4\uba74, \uc6b0\ub9ac\ub294 \ub3c5\uc77c\uacfc \uc774\ud0c8\ub9ac\uc544\uac00 \ud504\ub791\uc2a4\uc640 \uc2a4\ud398\uc778\ubcf4\ub2e4 \uc774 \uc5d0\ub108\uc9c0 \ucda9\uaca9\uc758 \ubd80\ub2f4\uc744 \ub354 \ud06c\uac8c \uc9c8 \uac83\uc73c\ub85c \ubcf8\ub2e4. \uc5d0\ub108\uc9c0 \uc218\uc785\uc5d0 \ub300\ud55c \uc0b0\uc5c5 \uc758\uc874\ub3c4\uac00 \ub354 \ub192\uc544 \ud2b9\ud788 \ucde8\uc57d\ud558\uae30 \ub54c\ubb38\uc774\ub2e4. \uc774\ub294 2022\ub144\uc5d0 \uc2dc\uc791\ub41c \uc5d0\ub108\uc9c0 \uc704\uae30 \ub54c\ub3c4 \ub098\ud0c0\ub09c \ud328\ud134\uc774\ub2e4. \uc774\ub7f0 \ucc28\uc774\ub294 \uc0c1\ub300\uac00\uce58 \uac70\ub798(relative value trades, \ub450 \uc790\uc0b0\uc758 \u2018\uc0c1\ub300\uc801 \uc131\uacfc \ucc28\uc774\u2019\uc5d0 \ubca0\ud305\ud558\ub294 \uac70\ub798) \uae30\ud68c\ub97c \uc2dc\uc0ac\ud558\uba70, \ud504\ub791\uc2a4 \uc790\uc0b0 \ub300\ube44 \ub3c5\uc77c\uc758 \ubd80\uc9c4\uc5d0 \ubca0\ud305\ud558\ub294 \uc804\ub7b5\uc744 \uc758\ubbf8\ud55c\ub2e4.\n\n<b><a href=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/trade-now\/\">VT Markets \uc2e4\uac70\ub798 \uacc4\uc815\uc744 \ub9cc\ub4e4\uace0<\/a>\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/myaccount.vtmarkets.com\/login\">\uc9c0\uae08 \uac70\ub798\ub97c \uc2dc\uc791\ud558\uc138\uc694<\/a>. <\/b>\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph-->\n<p><b>VT Markets \ub77c\uc774\ube0c \uacc4\uc815\uc744 \ub9cc\ub4e4\uace0 \uc9c0\uae08 \ubc14\ub85c <a href=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr\/trade-now\/\">\uac70\ub798<\/a>\ub97c \uc2dc\uc791\ud558\uc138\uc694.<\/b><\/p>\n<!-- \/wp:post-content -->","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>\uc911\ub3d9 \uac08\ub4f1\ubc1c \uc5d0\ub108\uc9c0 \ucda9\uaca9\uc774 \uc720\ub85c\uc874\uc744 \ud754\ub4e0\ub2e4: RaboResearch\ub294 2026\ub144 \uc778\ud50c\ub808 2.4%(+0.5%p), \uc131\uc7a5 -0.1%p \uc804\ub9dd. \ucd5c\uc545\uc5d4 \uc778\ud50c\ub808 5~6%\u00b7\uc131\uc7a5 -0.7%p, \ub3c5\uc77c\u00b7\uc774\ud0c8\ub9ac\uc544 \ud0c0\uaca9. &#8211; vtmarkets.com<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":103,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-39891","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/39891","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/103"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=39891"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/39891\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=39891"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=39891"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=39891"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}