{"id":39742,"date":"2026-03-06T04:44:59","date_gmt":"2026-03-06T04:44:59","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr\/uncategorized\/%eb%a6%ac%ec%8a%a4%ed%81%ac-%ed%9a%8c%ed%94%bc-%ec%8b%ac%eb%a6%ac%eb%a1%9c-nzd-usd%ea%b0%80-0-7-%ed%95%98%eb%9d%bd%ed%95%b4-0-5900%ec%84%a0-%ea%b7%bc%ec%b2%98%eb%a1%9c-%eb%82%b4%eb%a0%a4%ec%95%89\/"},"modified":"2026-03-06T04:44:59","modified_gmt":"2026-03-06T04:44:59","slug":"%eb%a6%ac%ec%8a%a4%ed%81%ac-%ed%9a%8c%ed%94%bc-%ec%8b%ac%eb%a6%ac%eb%a1%9c-nzd-usd%ea%b0%80-0-7-%ed%95%98%eb%9d%bd%ed%95%b4-0-5900%ec%84%a0-%ea%b7%bc%ec%b2%98%eb%a1%9c-%eb%82%b4%eb%a0%a4%ec%95%89","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/live-updates\/%eb%a6%ac%ec%8a%a4%ed%81%ac-%ed%9a%8c%ed%94%bc-%ec%8b%ac%eb%a6%ac%eb%a1%9c-nzd-usd%ea%b0%80-0-7-%ed%95%98%eb%9d%bd%ed%95%b4-0-5900%ec%84%a0-%ea%b7%bc%ec%b2%98%eb%a1%9c-%eb%82%b4%eb%a0%a4%ec%95%89\/","title":{"rendered":"\ub9ac\uc2a4\ud06c \ud68c\ud53c \uc2ec\ub9ac\ub85c NZD\/USD\uac00 0.7% \ud558\ub77d\ud574 0.5900\uc120 \uadfc\ucc98\ub85c \ub0b4\ub824\uc549\uc73c\uba70 2\uc6d4 \uc0c1\uc2b9\ubd84\uc744 \ubc18\ub0a9, \uac15\uc138 \ubaa8\uba58\ud140 \uc57d\ud654"},"content":{"rendered":"NZD\/USD\ub294 \ubaa9\uc694\uc77c\uc5d0 0.7% \uc774\uc0c1 \ud558\ub77d\ud574 0.5900 \ubd80\uadfc\uc5d0\uc11c \ub9c8\uac10\ud588\uc73c\uba70, 1\uc6d4 \ub9d0 \uc774\ud6c4 \ucd5c\uc800 \uc218\uc900\uc744 \uae30\ub85d\ud588\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4. 2\uc6d4 \ucd08 0.6090 \ubd80\uadfc\uc5d0\uc11c \uace0\uc810\uc744 \ucc0d\uc740 \ub4a4, 0.5920 \ubd80\uadfc\uc758 \uc9c0\uc9c0\uc120\uc774 \ubb34\ub108\uc9c0\uba74\uc11c 2\uc6d4 \uc0c1\uc2b9\ubd84 \ub300\ubd80\ubd84\uc744 \ub418\ub3cc\ub838\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4. (\uc9c0\uc9c0\uc120: \uac00\uaca9\uc774 \ub354 \ub0b4\ub824\uac00\uae30 \uc5b4\ub835\ub2e4\uace0 \uc5ec\uaca8\uc9c0\ub294 \uad6c\uac04)\n\nRBNZ(\ub274\uc9c8\ub79c\ub4dc \uc911\uc559\uc740\ud589)\ub294 2\uc6d4\uc5d0 \uacf5\uc2dd\uae08\ub9ac(Official Cash Rate, \uc911\uc559\uc740\ud589\uc774 \uc815\ud558\ub294 \uae30\uc900\uae08\ub9ac)\ub97c 2.25%\ub85c \ub3d9\uacb0\ud588\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4. \ub610\ud55c 2026\ub144 \ub9d0\uae4c\uc9c0 \uae08\ub9ac \uc778\uc0c1\uc774 \uc5c6\uc744 \uc218 \uc788\ub2e4\ub294 \uc2e0\ud638\ub97c \ubcf4\ub0c8\uace0, OIS(Overnight Index Swaps, \uc2dc\uc7a5\uc774 \uae30\ub300\ud558\ub294 \u2018\ud5a5\ud6c4 \uae30\uc900\uae08\ub9ac\u2019\ub97c \ubc18\uc601\ud558\ub294 \uae08\ub9ac \uac70\ub798)\uc758 \uae08\ub9ac \uae30\ub300\ub294 \uc57d 8bp(\ubca0\uc774\uc2dc\uc2a4 \ud3ec\uc778\ud2b8, 0.01%p) \ud558\ub77d\ud588\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4. 9\uc6d4 \uae08\ub9ac \uc778\uc0c1 \uac00\ub2a5\uc131\ub3c4 68%\uc5d0\uc11c \uc57d 40%\ub85c \ub0b4\ub824\uac14\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4.\n\n<h3>Monetary Policy Divergence<\/h3>\n\ud638\uc8fc RBA(\ud638\uc8fc \uc911\uc559\uc740\ud589)\uac00 2\uc6d4\uc5d0 \uae08\ub9ac\ub97c 3.85%\ub85c \uc62c\ub838\uace0 5\uc6d4 \ucd94\uac00 \uc778\uc0c1\ub3c4 \uac80\ud1a0\ud558\uba74\uc11c, \ud638\uc8fc\uc640\uc758 \uc815\ucc45 \ucc28\uc774(\ud1b5\ud654\uc815\ucc45 \ucc28\uc774)\uac00 \ub354 \ucee4\uc84c\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4. \uc774\ub85c \uc778\ud574 \ub274\uc9c8\ub79c\ub4dc \ub2ec\ub7ec\uc5d0 \ud558\ub77d \uc555\ub825\uc774 \ucee4\uc84c\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4. (\ud1b5\ud654\uc815\ucc45 \ucc28\uc774: \ub450 \ub098\ub77c \uc911\uc559\uc740\ud589\uc758 \uae08\ub9ac \ubc29\ud5a5\uc774 \ub2ec\ub77c \ud658\uc728\uc5d0 \uc601\ud5a5\uc744 \uc8fc\ub294 \uc0c1\ud669)\n\n\ud638\ub974\ubb34\uc988 \ud574\ud611(Strait of Hormuz)\uc774 \uc0ac\uc2e4\uc0c1 \ud3d0\uc1c4\ub41c \uac83\uc73c\ub85c \ubb18\uc0ac\ub418\uba74\uc11c \uc548\uc804\uc790\uc0b0 \uc120\ud638(safe-haven demand, \uc704\ud5d8\ud560 \ub54c \uc0c1\ub300\uc801\uc73c\ub85c \uc548\uc804\ud558\ub2e4\uace0 \uc5ec\uaca8\uc9c0\ub294 \uc790\uc0b0\uc744 \uc0ac\ub824\ub294 \uc218\uc694)\uac00 \ub2ec\ub7ec\ub97c \uc9c0\uc9c0\ud588\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4. \ubbf8\uad6d \uc6d0\uc720\ub294 \ubc30\ub7f4\ub2f9 80\ub2ec\ub7ec \uc704\ub85c \uc62c\ub77c 2024\ub144 \uc911\ubc18 \uc774\ud6c4 \ucc98\uc74c\uc73c\ub85c \ud574\ub2f9 \uc218\uc900\uc744 \ub118\uc5c8\uace0, \uc774\ub294 \ub274\uc9c8\ub79c\ub4dc\uc758 \uc6d0\uc720 \uc218\uc785 \ube44\uc6a9\uc744 \ub192\uc600\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4. (\uc548\uc804\uc790\uc0b0: \ubd88\ud655\uc2e4\uc131\uc774 \ucee4\uc9c8 \ub54c \uc0ac\ub78c\ub4e4\uc774 \uc120\ud638\ud558\ub294 \uc790\uc0b0. \uc5ec\uae30\uc11c\ub294 \ubbf8 \ub2ec\ub7ec\uac00 \uac15\ud574\uc9c0\ub294 \uc694\uc778\uc73c\ub85c \uc791\uc6a9)\n\n\uc5f0\uc900(Federal Reserve, \ubbf8\uad6d \uc911\uc559\uc740\ud589)\uc740 1\uc6d4\uc5d0 \uae08\ub9ac\ub97c 3.50%~3.75%\ub85c \ub3d9\uacb0\ud588\uc73c\uba70, \uc758\uc0ac\ub85d(minutes, \ud68c\uc758 \ub0b4\uc6a9\uc744 \uc815\ub9ac\ud55c \uae30\ub85d)\uc740 \ub9e4\ud30c\uc801(hawkish, \ubb3c\uac00\ub97c \uc7a1\uae30 \uc704\ud574 \uae08\ub9ac\ub97c \uc62c\ub9ac\uac70\ub098 \ub192\uc740 \uae08\ub9ac\ub97c \uc720\uc9c0\ud558\ub824\ub294 \uc131\ud5a5) \ubd84\uc704\uae30\ub97c \ubcf4\uc5ec\uc92c\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4. \ubbf8\uad6d \ube44\ub18d\uc5c5\ubd80\ubb38 \uace0\uc6a9(Non-Farm Payrolls, \ub18d\uc5c5\uc744 \uc81c\uc678\ud55c \ud55c \ub2ec \uc2e0\uaddc \uace0\uc6a9\uc790 \uc218)\uc740 2\uc6d4\uc5d0 \uc57d 6\ub9cc \uba85\uc73c\ub85c \uc804\ub9dd\ub418\uba70, 1\uc6d4 13\ub9cc \uba85\uc5d0\uc11c \uac10\uc18c\ud55c \uc218\uce58\uc785\ub2c8\ub2e4.\n\nNZD\/USD\ub294 0.5898\uc5d0\uc11c \uac70\ub798\ub410\uace0, \uc9c0\uc9c0\uc120\uc740 0.5890~0.5900 \ubd80\uadfc, \uadf8\ub2e4\uc74c 0.5850\uacfc 0.5800\uc785\ub2c8\ub2e4. \uc800\ud56d\uc120(resistance, \uac00\uaca9\uc774 \ub354 \uc624\ub974\uae30 \uc5b4\ub835\ub2e4\uace0 \uc5ec\uaca8\uc9c0\ub294 \uad6c\uac04)\uc740 0.5950, \uadf8\ub2e4\uc74c 0.6000\uacfc 0.6050\uc5d0 \uc788\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4.\n\n<h3>Trade Bias And Key Risks<\/h3>\n\ud604\uc7ac \uc2dc\uc7a5 \ud658\uacbd\uc740 NZD\/USD\uc5d0\uc11c \ub9e4\ub3c4(\ud558\ub77d\uc5d0 \ubca0\ud305) \ud3ec\uc9c0\uc158\uc5d0 \uc720\ub9ac\ud569\ub2c8\ub2e4. \ud638\ub974\ubb34\uc988 \ud574\ud611 \uc704\uae30\uc5d0\uc11c \ube44\ub86f\ub41c \uc9c0\uc815\ud559\uc801 \uae34\uc7a5(\uad6d\uac00 \uac04 \uac08\ub4f1)\uc774 \uc804\ud615\uc801\uc778 \u2018\uc548\uc804\uc73c\ub85c\uc758 \uc774\ub3d9\u2019(flight to safety, \uc704\ud5d8\uc790\uc0b0\uc744 \ud314\uace0 \uc548\uc804\ud558\ub2e4\uace0 \ub290\ub07c\ub294 \uc790\uc0b0\uc744 \uc0ac\ub294 \ud750\ub984)\uc744 \ub9cc\ub4e4\uace0, \ubbf8 \ub2ec\ub7ec\ub97c \uac15\ud558\uac8c \ud558\uba70 \ub274\uc9c8\ub79c\ub4dc \ub2ec\ub7ec\ucc98\ub7fc \uc704\ud5d8\uc5d0 \ubbfc\uac10\ud55c \ud1b5\ud654\uc5d0 \ubd88\ub9ac\ud558\uac8c \uc791\uc6a9\ud569\ub2c8\ub2e4. \uc6b0\ub9ac\ub294 \uc804\ubc18\uc801\uc778 \uc704\ud5d8 \ud68c\ud53c(risk aversion, \uc704\ud5d8\uc744 \ud53c\ud558\ub824\ub294 \ubd84\uc704\uae30)\uac00 \uc774\uc5b4\uc9c0\ub294 \ud55c \uc774 \ud750\ub984\uc774 \uacc4\uc18d\ub420 \uac00\ub2a5\uc131\uc774 \uc788\ub2e4\uace0 \ubd05\ub2c8\ub2e4.\n\n\uc911\uc559\uc740\ud589 \uac04 \ud1b5\ud654\uc815\ucc45 \ucc28\uc774\ub294 \uc774 \ud558\ub77d \uc804\ub9dd\uc744 \ub4b7\ubc1b\uce68\ud558\ub294 \ud575\uc2ec \uc694\uc778\uc785\ub2c8\ub2e4. RBNZ\uc758 \uc644\ud654\uc801(dovish, \uae08\ub9ac\ub97c \uc62c\ub9ac\uae30\ubcf4\ub2e4 \ub0ae\uac8c \uc720\uc9c0\ud558\ub824\ub294 \uc131\ud5a5) \ud0dc\ub3c4(2.25% \ub3d9\uacb0)\ub294 \uc5f0\uc900\uc758 \ub9e4\ud30c\uc801 \uae30\uc870 \ubc0f 3.50% \uc774\uc0c1\uc758 \uae08\ub9ac\uc640 \ub300\uc870\ub429\ub2c8\ub2e4. \uc774 \uae08\ub9ac \ucc28\uc774(interest rate differential, \ub450 \ub098\ub77c \uae08\ub9ac\uc758 \uaca9\ucc28)\ub294 2024\ub144 \ub9d0 \uc774\ud6c4 \uac00\uc7a5 \ud070 \uc218\uc900\uc73c\ub85c, \ub274\uc9c8\ub79c\ub4dc \ub2ec\ub7ec\ubcf4\ub2e4 \ubbf8 \ub2ec\ub7ec\ub97c \ubcf4\uc720\ud558\ub294 \ud3b8\uc774 \uc774\uc790 \uce21\uba74\uc5d0\uc11c \ub354 \uc720\ub9ac\ud558\uac8c \ub9cc\ub4ed\ub2c8\ub2e4.\n\n\ub274\uc9c8\ub79c\ub4dc\uc758 \ucde8\uc57d\uc810\ub3c4 \ub354 \ub450\ub4dc\ub7ec\uc9c0\uace0 \uc788\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4. \ubbf8\uad6d \uc6d0\uc720 \uac00\uaca9\uc774 \ubc30\ub7f4\ub2f9 80\ub2ec\ub7ec \uc704\uc5d0\uc11c \uc720\uc9c0\ub418\uba74, \uc5d0\ub108\uc9c0\ub97c \uc21c\uc218\uc785(net energy importer, \uc5d0\ub108\uc9c0\ub97c \uc218\uc785\uc774 \ub354 \ub9ce\uc740 \ub098\ub77c)\ud558\ub294 \ub274\uc9c8\ub79c\ub4dc \uacbd\uc81c\uc5d0 \ubd80\ub2f4\uc774 \ucee4\uc9d1\ub2c8\ub2e4. \ub610\ud55c \uc774\ubc88 \uc8fc GDT(Global Dairy Trade, \uc720\uc81c\ud488 \uad6d\uc81c \uacbd\ub9e4)\uc5d0\uc11c \uac00\uaca9\uc774 1.4% \ucd94\uac00 \ud558\ub77d\ud574 \ub274\uc9c8\ub79c\ub4dc\uc758 \ud575\uc2ec \uc218\ucd9c \ubd80\ubb38 \uc57d\uc138\ub97c \uc2dc\uc0ac\ud588\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4.\n\n\uac15\ud55c \ud558\ub77d \ud750\ub984\uc744 \uace0\ub824\ud558\uba74, \ud589\uc0ac\uac00(strike price, \uc635\uc158\uc5d0\uc11c \uc0ac\uace0\ud314 \uac00\uaca9) 0.5850 \uc774\ud558\uc758 NZD\/USD \ud48b\uc635\uc158(put options, \ud2b9\uc815 \uac00\uaca9\uc5d0 \u2018\ud314 \uc218 \uc788\ub294 \uad8c\ub9ac\u2019\ub85c \ud558\ub77d\uc5d0 \uc720\ub9ac\ud55c \uc635\uc158) \ub9e4\uc218\ub97c \uac80\ud1a0\ud560 \uc218 \uc788\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4. \uc635\uc158(options, \ud2b9\uc815 \uac00\uaca9\uc5d0 \uc0ac\uace0\ud314 \uc218 \uc788\ub294 \uad8c\ub9ac)\uc740 \ucd5c\ub300 \uc190\uc2e4\uc744 \uc81c\ud55c\ud574 \uc8fc\ubbc0\ub85c, \uc624\ub298 \uc2dc\uc7a5\uc758 \uad00\uc2ec\uc774 \ud070 \ubbf8\uad6d \ube44\ub18d\uc5c5\ubd80\ubb38 \uace0\uc6a9(NFP) \ubc1c\ud45c\ub97c \uc55e\ub450\uace0 \ub354 \uc2e0\uc911\ud55c \ubc29\ubc95\uc774 \ub420 \uc218 \uc788\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4. 0.5900 \uc9c0\uc9c0\uc120 \uc544\ub798\ub85c \uc77c\uc77c \uc885\uac00(daily close, \ud558\ub8e8 \uac70\ub798\uac00 \ub05d\ub0a0 \ub54c \uac00\uaca9)\uac00 \ud655\uc778\ub418\uba74, \uc774\ub7f0 \ud3ec\uc9c0\uc158\uc744 \uc2dc\uc791\ud558\uac70\ub098 \ub298\ub9ac\ub294 \uc2e0\ud638\uac00 \ub420 \uc218 \uc788\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4.\n\nNFP \ubc1c\ud45c\uac00 \uac00\uc7a5 \ud070 \uc774\ubca4\ud2b8 \uc704\ud5d8(event risk, \ubc1c\ud45c \ud558\ub098\ub85c \uac00\uaca9\uc774 \ud06c\uac8c \uc6c0\uc9c1\uc77c \uc218 \uc788\ub294 \uc704\ud5d8)\uc785\ub2c8\ub2e4. \uc804\ub9dd\uce58\uac00 6\ub9cc \uba85\uc73c\ub85c \uc57d\ud574 \ub2e8\uae30 \uae09\ub4f1(temporary spike, \uc7a0\uae50 \ud280\uc5b4 \uc624\ub974\ub294 \uc6c0\uc9c1\uc784)\uc774 \ub098\uc62c \uc218 \uc788\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4. \ub2e4\ub9cc 2025\ub144\uc5d0 \uc2dc\uc7a5\uc774 \uace0\uc6a9 \uc9c0\ud45c\uac00 \uc57d\ud574\ub3c4 \ubb3c\uac00 \ud750\ub984\uc774 \ub354 \uc911\uc694\ud558\ub2e4\uace0 \ubcf4\uace0 \ud06c\uac8c \ubc18\uc751\ud558\uc9c0 \uc54a\uc558\ub358 \uc2dc\uae30\ub3c4 \uc788\uc5c8\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4. NFP\uac00 \uc608\uc0c1\ubcf4\ub2e4 \uac15\ud558\uba74 \ud558\ub77d(\ub9e4\ub3c4)\uc774 \ub354 \ube68\ub77c\uc9c8 \uc218 \uc788\uace0, \uc608\uc0c1\ubcf4\ub2e4 \uc57d\ud558\uba74 \uae09\ub77d\uc774 \uc9c4\uc815\ub41c \ub4a4 \uc0c8 \ub9e4\ub3c4 \ud3ec\uc9c0\uc158\uc744 \uc7a1\uae30 \uc88b\uc740 \uac00\uaca9\uc744 \uc904 \uc218\ub3c4 \uc788\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4.\n\n<b><a href=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/trade-now\/\">VT Markets \uc2e4\uacc4\uc88c\ub97c \uac1c\uc124<\/a>\u00a0\ud558\uace0\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/myaccount.vtmarkets.com\/login\">\uc9c0\uae08 \uac70\ub798\ub97c \uc2dc\uc791<\/a>\ud558\uc138\uc694. <\/b>\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph-->\n<p><b>VT Markets \ub77c\uc774\ube0c \uacc4\uc815\uc744 \ub9cc\ub4e4\uace0 \uc9c0\uae08 \ubc14\ub85c <a href=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr\/trade-now\/\">\uac70\ub798<\/a>\ub97c \uc2dc\uc791\ud558\uc138\uc694.<\/b><\/p>\n<!-- \/wp:post-content -->","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>\ud0a4\uc704\ub2ec\ub7ec \uae09\ub77d, \ub354 \ub5a8\uc5b4\uc9c8\uae4c? NZD\/USD\ub294 0.5900\uc120\uae4c\uc9c0 \ubc00\ub9ac\uba70 1\uc6d4 \ub9d0 \ucd5c\uc800. RBNZ \ube44\ub458\uae30\u00b7RBA\/\uc5f0\uc900 \ub9e4\ud30c, \ud638\ub974\ubb34\uc988 \uae34\uc7a5\uacfc \uc720\uac00\u00b7\ub099\ub18d \uc57d\uc138\uac00 \ud558\ubc29 \uc555\ub825. \ub2e8\uae30 \uc20f \uc6b0\uc138. &#8211; vtmarkets.com<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":103,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-39742","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/39742","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/103"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=39742"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/39742\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=39742"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=39742"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=39742"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}