{"id":39695,"date":"2026-03-05T17:44:29","date_gmt":"2026-03-05T17:44:29","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr\/uncategorized\/%ec%8a%a4%ed%83%a0%eb%8b%a4%eb%93%9c%ec%b0%a8%ed%83%80%eb%93%9c%ec%9d%98-%ed%83%88%ed%95%98-%eb%82%98%eb%94%a4%ec%9d%80-%ec%a4%91%eb%8f%99-%eb%b6%84%ec%9f%81%ec%9d%b4-%ed%8a%80%eb%a5%b4%ed%82%a4\/"},"modified":"2026-03-05T17:44:29","modified_gmt":"2026-03-05T17:44:29","slug":"%ec%8a%a4%ed%83%a0%eb%8b%a4%eb%93%9c%ec%b0%a8%ed%83%80%eb%93%9c%ec%9d%98-%ed%83%88%ed%95%98-%eb%82%98%eb%94%a4%ec%9d%80-%ec%a4%91%eb%8f%99-%eb%b6%84%ec%9f%81%ec%9d%b4-%ed%8a%80%eb%a5%b4%ed%82%a4","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/live-updates\/%ec%8a%a4%ed%83%a0%eb%8b%a4%eb%93%9c%ec%b0%a8%ed%83%80%eb%93%9c%ec%9d%98-%ed%83%88%ed%95%98-%eb%82%98%eb%94%a4%ec%9d%80-%ec%a4%91%eb%8f%99-%eb%b6%84%ec%9f%81%ec%9d%b4-%ed%8a%80%eb%a5%b4%ed%82%a4\/","title":{"rendered":"\uc2a4\ud0e0\ub2e4\ub4dc\ucc28\ud0c0\ub4dc\uc758 \ud0c8\ud558 \ub098\ub524\uc740 \uc911\ub3d9 \ubd84\uc7c1\uc774 \ud280\ub974\ud0a4\uc608\uc758 \uc778\ud50c\ub808\uc774\uc158\uacfc \uc804\ub9dd\uc744 \uc704\ud611\ud568\uc5d0 \ub530\ub77c \ud130\ud0a4\uc911\uc559\uc740\ud589(CBRT)\uc774 \uc2e0\uc911\ud55c \ud0dc\ub3c4\ub97c \ubcf4\uc774\uba70 \uae08\ub9ac \uc778\uc0c1\uc744 \uc7a0\uc2dc \uba48\ucd9c \uac83\uc73c\ub85c \uc608\uc0c1\ud55c\ub2e4"},"content":{"rendered":"\uc2a4\ud0e0\ub2e4\ub4dc\ucc28\ud0c0\ub4dc(Standard Chartered)\ub294 \ud280\ub974\ud0a4\uc608 \uacf5\ud654\uad6d \uc911\uc559\uc740\ud589(CBRT)\uc774 3\uc6d4\uc5d0 **\uc815\ucc45\uae08\ub9ac(\uc911\uc559\uc740\ud589\uc774 \uae30\uc900\uc73c\ub85c \uc0bc\ub294 \uae08\ub9ac)** \ub97c **37%\ub85c \ub3d9\uacb0(\ubc14\uafb8\uc9c0 \uc54a\uc74c)** \ud560 \uac83\uc73c\ub85c \ubcf8\ub2e4. \uc774\ub294 \uc55e\uc11c \uc608\uc0c1\ud588\ub358 **100bp \uc778\ud558(1%\ud3ec\uc778\ud2b8 \uc778\ud558)** \uc804\ub9dd\uc744 \ubc14\uafbc \uac83\uc774\ub2e4. \ub2e4\ub9cc \uc5f0\ub9d0 \uc804\ub9dd\uc740 **30%** \ub85c \uc720\uc9c0\ud588\ub2e4.\n\n\uc774 \uc804\ub9dd \ubcc0\ud654\ub294 \uc911\ub3d9 \ubd84\uc7c1 \uc704\ud5d8\uacfc \uc5f0\uacb0\ub41c\ub2e4. \ubd84\uc7c1\uc774 **\uc720\uac00(\uc11d\uc720 \uac00\uaca9)** \ub97c \uc62c\ub9ac\uba74 \ubb3c\uac00\uac00 \ub354 \uc624\ub97c \uc218 \uc788\uace0, **\uacbd\uc0c1\uc218\uc9c0(\uc218\ucd9c\u00b7\uc218\uc785\uacfc \uc11c\ube44\uc2a4 \uac70\ub798 \ub4f1 \ub300\uc678 \uac70\ub798\uc758 \uc21c\uc218\uc775)** \uc640 **\ud130\ud0a4 \ub9ac\ub77c\ud654(\ud280\ub974\ud0a4\uc608 \ud1b5\ud654, TRY)** \uc5d0 \ub300\ud55c \uc555\ubc15\ub3c4 \ucee4\uc9c8 \uc218 \uc788\ub2e4.\n\n

\uc815\ucc45 \uc790\uae08\uc870\ub2ec \ubc29\uc2dd \ubcc0\ud654<\/h3>\n2026\ub144 3\uc6d4 1\uc77c, CBRT\ub294 **1\uc8fc\uc77c\ubb3c \ud658\ub9e4\uc870\uac74\ubd80\ucc44\uad8c(Repo) \uacbd\ub9e4(\uc911\uc559\uc740\ud589\uc774 \ub2e8\uae30 \uc790\uae08\uc744 \uacf5\uae09\ud558\ub294 \ubc29\uc2dd)** \ub97c \uc911\ub2e8\ud558\uace0, \ub300\uc2e0 **\uc775\uc77c\ubb3c \ub300\ucd9c\uae08\ub9ac(\ud558\ub8fb\ubc24 \uc790\uae08\uc5d0 \uc801\uc6a9\ub418\ub294 \uae08\ub9ac)** \uc778 **40%** \ub85c \uc790\uae08\uc744 \uacf5\uae09\ud558\uaca0\ub2e4\uace0 \ubc1d\ud614\ub2e4. \uc774\ub294 \uc815\ucc45\uae08\ub9ac\ubcf4\ub2e4 **300bp(3%\ud3ec\uc778\ud2b8)** \ub192\uc740 \uc218\uc900\uc774\ub77c\uace0 \uc124\uba85\ud588\uc73c\uba70, \uc885\ub8cc \uc2dc\uc810\uc740 \uc81c\uc2dc\ud558\uc9c0 \uc54a\uc558\ub2e4.\n\nCBRT\ub294 \ub610 **TRY \uacb0\uc81c \uc678\ud658(FX) \uc120\ub3c4 \ub9e4\ub3c4 \uac70\ub798(\ubbf8\ub798 \ud2b9\uc815 \uc2dc\uc810\uc5d0 \uc815\ud55c \ud658\uc728\ub85c \uc678\ud654\ub97c \ud314\uae30\ub85c \uacc4\uc57d\ud558\ub294 \uac70\ub798, \uacb0\uc81c\ub294 \ub9ac\ub77c\ub85c \ud568)** \ub97c \uc2e4\uc2dc\ud558\uaca0\ub2e4\uace0 \ubc1c\ud45c\ud588\ub2e4. \ubaa9\uc801\uc740 **\uc678\ud658\uc2dc\uc7a5(FX market, \ud1b5\ud654\uac00 \uac70\ub798\ub418\ub294 \uc2dc\uc7a5)** \uc774 \uc6d0\ud65c\ud788 \uc791\ub3d9\ud558\ub3c4\ub85d \ub3d5\ub294 \uac83\uc774\ub2e4.\n\n**\uc778\ud50c\ub808\uc774\uc158(\ubb3c\uac00\uac00 \uc804\ubc18\uc801\uc73c\ub85c \uc624\ub974\ub294 \ud604\uc0c1)** \ub3c4 \uae08\ub9ac \uc778\ud558\ub97c \uc5b4\ub835\uac8c \ud558\ub294 \uc694\uc778\uc73c\ub85c \uc81c\uc2dc\ub41c\ub2e4. 2\uc6d4 **\ud5e4\ub4dc\ub77c\uc778 CPI(\uc804\uccb4 \uc18c\ube44\uc790\ubb3c\uac00\uc9c0\uc218)** \ub294 \uc804\ub144 \ub300\ube44 **31.53%** \ub85c, 1\uc6d4\uc758 **30.65%** \uc5d0\uc11c \uc62c\ub790\ub2e4. **\uadfc\uc6d0\ubb3c\uac00(core inflation, \uc5d0\ub108\uc9c0\u00b7\uc2dd\ud488\ucc98\ub7fc \ubcc0\ub3d9\uc774 \ud070 \ud488\ubaa9\uc744 \ube80 \ubb3c\uac00)** \ub294 \uc9c0\ub09c 12\uac1c\uc6d4 \ub3d9\uc548 \uc57d **33%** \uc218\uc900\uc5d0 \uba38\ubb3c\ub800\ub2e4.\n\n\uc911\uc559\uc740\ud589\uc758 \ucd5c\uadfc \uc870\uce58\ub294 \uc0ac\uc2e4\uc0c1 \uc790\uae08\uc870\ub2ec \ube44\uc6a9\uc744 40%\ub85c \uc62c\ub9b0 \uac83\uc73c\ub85c, \uc774\ub294 **\u2018\uc2a4\ud154\uc2a4 \uc778\uc0c1(\uac89\uc73c\ub85c\ub294 \uc815\ucc45\uae08\ub9ac\ub97c \uc62c\ub9ac\uc9c0 \uc54a\uc558\uc9c0\ub9cc \uc2e4\uc81c \uc2dc\uc7a5 \uae08\ub9ac \ubd80\ub2f4\uc744 \ub192\uc774\ub294 \ubc29\uc2dd)\u2019** \uc5d0 \ud574\ub2f9\ud55c\ub2e4. \uc774\ub85c \uc778\ud574 3\uc6d4 12\uc77c \ud68c\uc758\uc5d0 \ub300\ud55c \uc2dc\uc7a5\uc758 \uc608\uc0c1\ub3c4, \uc911\ub3d9 \uae34\uc7a5 \uace0\uc870\uc640 \uadf8 \ud30c\uae09\uc744 \uace0\ub824\ud574 **\uc778\ud558\ubcf4\ub2e4 37% \ub3d9\uacb0** \ucabd\uc73c\ub85c \ubc14\ub00c\uc5c8\ub2e4.\n\n

\uc2dc\uc7a5 \ubcc0\ub3d9\uc131 \uc804\ub9dd<\/h3>\n\ubd88\ud655\uc2e4\uc131 \ud655\ub300\ub294 **USD\/TRY \uc635\uc158\uc5d0\uc11c \ub0b4\uc7ac\ubcc0\ub3d9\uc131(implied volatility, \uc635\uc158 \uac00\uaca9\uc5d0 \ubc18\uc601\ub41c \u2018\uc55e\uc73c\ub85c\uc758 \ubcc0\ub3d9 \ud3ed\u2019 \uae30\ub300\uce58)** \uc744 \ub192\uc77c \uac83\uc73c\ub85c \uc608\uc0c1\ub41c\ub2e4. \ucd5c\uadfc **1\uac1c\uc6d4 \ub0b4\uc7ac\ubcc0\ub3d9\uc131** \uc740 **30%** \ubd80\uadfc\uae4c\uc9c0 \uc62c\ub77c \uc2a4\ud2b8\ub808\uc2a4\uac00 \ud070 \uc0c1\ud0dc\uc784\uc744 \uc2dc\uc0ac\ud55c\ub2e4. \ubcc0\ub3d9 \ud3ed\uc774 \ub354 \ucee4\uc9c8 \ub54c \uc720\ub9ac\ud55c \uc804\ub7b5\uc740, CBRT\uc758 \ubc29\uc5b4\uc801 \ub300\uc751\uacfc \uc9c0\uc815\ud559\uc801 \uc555\ub825\uc774 \ub9ac\ub77c\uc5d0 \ub3d9\uc2dc\uc5d0 \uc791\uc6a9\ud558\uba74 \uc774\uc775\uc744 \ubcfc \uc218 \uc788\ub2e4.\n\n\uc774\ub7f0 \uc704\ud5d8\uc740 \uc774\ubbf8 \uc2dc\uc7a5\uc5d0 \ub098\ud0c0\ub098\uace0 \uc788\ub2e4. **\ube0c\ub80c\ud2b8\uc720(\uad6d\uc81c \uc720\uac00 \uc9c0\ud45c \uc911 \ud558\ub098)** \ub294 \ubc30\ub7f4\ub2f9 95\ub2ec\ub7ec\ub97c \ub118\uc5b4\uc11c\uba70, **\uc5d0\ub108\uc9c0 \uc218\uc785\uad6d** \uc778 \ud280\ub974\ud0a4\uc608\uc758 \ubb3c\uac00 \uc704\ud5d8\uc744 \ud0a4\uc6e0\ub2e4. \ub610\ud55c **5\ub144\ubb3c CDS \uc2a4\ud504\ub808\ub4dc(Credit Default Swap, \uad6d\uac00\/\uae30\uc5c5 \ubd80\ub3c4 \uc704\ud5d8\uc5d0 \ub300\ud55c \ubcf4\ud5d8\ub8cc; \uc2a4\ud504\ub808\ub4dc\uac00 \ub113\uc5b4\uc9c0\uba74 \uc704\ud5d8 \uc778\uc2dd\uc774 \ucee4\uc84c\ub2e4\ub294 \ub73b)** \ub294 \uba70\uce60 \uc0ac\uc774 \uc57d **40bp** \ud655\ub300\ub3fc **345bp** \uac00 \ub418\uc5c8\uace0, \uc774\ub294 \ud130\ud0a4 \uc790\uc0b0\uc5d0 \uc694\uad6c\ub418\ub294 **\uc704\ud5d8 \ud504\ub9ac\ubbf8\uc5c4(\uc704\ud5d8\uc744 \uac10\uc218\ud558\ub294 \ub300\uac00\ub85c \ucd94\uac00\ub85c \uc694\uad6c\ub418\ub294 \uc218\uc775\ub960)** \uc774 \ub192\uc544\uc84c\uc74c\uc744 \ub73b\ud55c\ub2e4.\n\n\uae08\ub9ac \uc2dc\uc7a5\uc5d0\uc11c\ub294 \ub9ac\ub77c\uc758 **\uc120\ubb3c\ud658(\ub610\ub294 \ud3ec\uc6cc\ub4dc) \uace1\uc120(forward curve, \ub9cc\uae30\ubcc4 \uc608\uc0c1 \ud658\uc728\/\uae08\ub9ac \uc218\uc900\uc774 \ubc18\uc601\ub41c \uad6c\uc870)** \uc774 **\u2018\ub354 \uc624\ub798 \ub192\uc740 \uae08\ub9ac\u2019** \uacbd\ub85c\ub97c \ubc18\uc601\ud558\ub3c4\ub85d \uc7ac\uc870\uc815\ub420 \uc218 \uc788\uc5b4, \uae30\uc874\uc758 **\uc644\ud654(\uae08\ub9ac \uc778\ud558) \ud3ec\uc9c0\uc158(\ud22c\uc790\uc790\uac00 \uc7a1\uc544 \ub454 \uac70\ub798 \ubc29\ud5a5)** \uc744 \uccad\uc0b0\ud574\uc57c \ud560 \uc218 \uc788\ub2e4. \uc774\ub7f0 \ubcc0\ud654\uc5d0\uc11c\ub294 \ub2e8\uae30 **\uc774\uc790\uc728 \uc2a4\uc651(interest rate swap, \ubcc0\ub3d9\uae08\ub9ac\uc640 \uace0\uc815\uae08\ub9ac\ub97c \uc11c\ub85c \uad50\ud658\ud558\ub294 \uacc4\uc57d)** \uc5d0\uc11c **\uace0\uc815\uae08\ub9ac\ub97c \uc9c0\uae09(pay fixed, \uace0\uc815\uae08\ub9ac \uc9c0\uae09\u00b7\ubcc0\ub3d9\uae08\ub9ac \uc218\ucde8 \ud3ec\uc9c0\uc158)** \ud558\ub294 \uac83\uc774 \ub354 \ub17c\ub9ac\uc801\uc778 \ub300\uc751\uc73c\ub85c \uc124\uba85\ub41c\ub2e4.\n\n\n

VT Markets \ub77c\uc774\ube0c \uacc4\uc815\uc744 \ub9cc\ub4e4\uace0 \uc9c0\uae08 \ubc14\ub85c \uac70\ub798<\/a>\ub97c \uc2dc\uc791\ud558\uc138\uc694.<\/b><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

\uc911\ub3d9 \ub9ac\uc2a4\ud06c\uac00 \ud280\ub974\ud0a4\uc608 \uc2dc\uc7a5\uc744 \ud754\ub4e0\ub2e4: \uc2a4\ud0e0\ub2e4\ub4dc\ucc28\ud0c0\ub4dc\ub294 CBRT\uac00 3\uc6d4 \uc815\ucc45\uae08\ub9ac 37% \ub3d9\uacb0(\uae30\uc874 100bp \uc778\ud558 \ucca0\ud68c) \uc804\ub9dd. 40% \uc624\ubc84\ub098\uc774\ud2b8\ub85c \u2018\uc740\ubc00\ud55c \uae34\ucd95\u2019, \uc720\uac00\u00b7\ubb3c\uac00\u00b7USD\/TRY \ubcc0\ub3d9\uc131 \uc555\ub825 \ud655\ub300. – vtmarkets.com<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":103,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-39695","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/39695","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/103"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=39695"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/39695\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=39695"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=39695"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=39695"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}