{"id":39515,"date":"2026-03-03T23:44:58","date_gmt":"2026-03-03T23:44:58","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr\/uncategorized\/%ec%9b%8c%ec%8b%b1%ed%84%b4-dc%ec%97%90%ec%84%9c-%eb%89%b4%ec%9a%95-%ec%97%b0%eb%b0%a9%ec%a4%80%eb%b9%84%ec%9d%80%ed%96%89-%ec%b4%9d%ec%9e%ac-%ec%a1%b4-%ec%9c%8c%eb%a6%ac%ec%97%84%ec%8a%a4%eb%8a%94\/"},"modified":"2026-03-03T23:44:58","modified_gmt":"2026-03-03T23:44:58","slug":"%ec%9b%8c%ec%8b%b1%ed%84%b4-dc%ec%97%90%ec%84%9c-%eb%89%b4%ec%9a%95-%ec%97%b0%eb%b0%a9%ec%a4%80%eb%b9%84%ec%9d%80%ed%96%89-%ec%b4%9d%ec%9e%ac-%ec%a1%b4-%ec%9c%8c%eb%a6%ac%ec%97%84%ec%8a%a4%eb%8a%94","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/live-updates\/%ec%9b%8c%ec%8b%b1%ed%84%b4-dc%ec%97%90%ec%84%9c-%eb%89%b4%ec%9a%95-%ec%97%b0%eb%b0%a9%ec%a4%80%eb%b9%84%ec%9d%80%ed%96%89-%ec%b4%9d%ec%9e%ac-%ec%a1%b4-%ec%9c%8c%eb%a6%ac%ec%97%84%ec%8a%a4%eb%8a%94\/","title":{"rendered":"\uc6cc\uc2f1\ud134 DC\uc5d0\uc11c \ub274\uc695 \uc5f0\ubc29\uc900\ube44\uc740\ud589 \ucd1d\uc7ac \uc874 \uc70c\ub9ac\uc5c4\uc2a4\ub294 \ud5a5\ud6c4 \uae08\ub9ac \uc778\ud558\uac00 \ud1b5\ud654\uc815\ucc45\uc774 \uc9c0\ub098\uce58\uac8c \uae34\ucd95\uc801\uc73c\ub85c \ub418\ub294 \uac83\uc744 \ub9c9\uc744 \uac83\uc774\ub77c\uace0 \ub9d0\ud588\ub2e4."},"content":{"rendered":"\uc874 \uc70c\ub9ac\uc5c4\uc2a4 \ub274\uc695 \uc5f0\ubc29\uc900\ube44\uc740\ud589(Federal Reserve Bank of New York, \ub274\uc695 \uc5f0\uc900) \ucd1d\uc7ac\ub294 \ud654\uc694\uc77c \uc6cc\uc2f1\ud134 DC\uc5d0\uc11c \uc5f4\ub9b0 \ubbf8\uad6d \uc2e0\uc6a9\ud611\ub3d9\uc870\ud569(America\u2019s Credit Unions) \uc815\ubd80\uc5c5\ubb34 \ucf58\ud37c\ub7f0\uc2a4(Governmental Affairs Conference, \uc815\ucc45\u00b7\uaddc\uc81c \uad00\ub828 \ud68c\uc758)\uc5d0\uc11c \uc5f0\uc124\ud588\ub2e4. \uadf8\uc758 \uc0ac\uc804 \uc900\ube44 \ubc1c\uc5b8\uc5d0\ub294 \uc774\ub780 \ubd84\uc7c1\uc774 \uacbd\uc81c\uc5d0 \ubbf8\uce58\ub294 \uc601\ud5a5\uc740 \ud3ec\ud568\ub418\uc9c0 \uc54a\uc558\ub2e4.\n\n\uc70c\ub9ac\uc5c4\uc2a4\ub294 \ubb3c\uac00\uc0c1\uc2b9\ub960(\uc778\ud50c\ub808\uc774\uc158, \uc804\ubc18\uc801\uc778 \ubb3c\uac00\uac00 \uc624\ub974\ub294 \ud604\uc0c1)\uc774 \uacc4\uc18d \ub454\ud654\ud558\uba74, \uae30\uc900\uae08\ub9ac \ubaa9\ud45c(\uc815\ucc45\uae08\ub9ac \ubaa9\ud45c, \uc911\uc559\uc740\ud589\uc774 \ub9de\ucd94\ub824\ub294 \uae08\ub9ac \uc218\uc900)\ub97c \ucd94\uac00\ub85c \ub0b4\ub9b4 \ud544\uc694\uac00 \uacb0\uad6d \uc0dd\uae38 \uc218 \uc788\ub2e4\uace0 \ub9d0\ud588\ub2e4. \uadf8\ub294 \uc774\ud6c4\uc758 \uae08\ub9ac \uc778\ud558\ub294 \uc815\ucc45\uc774 \uc9c0\ub098\uce58\uac8c \ube61\ube61\ud574\uc9c0\ub294 \uac83(\uae08\ub9ac\uac00 \ub192\uc544 \uacbd\uc81c\ub97c \uacfc\ub3c4\ud558\uac8c \ub204\ub974\ub294 \uc0c1\ud0dc)\uc744 \ub9c9\uae30 \uc704\ud55c \uac83\uc774\ub77c\uace0 \ud588\uace0, \ud604\uc7ac \uc815\ucc45 \uc218\uc900\uc740 \uc801\uc808\ud558\ub2e4\uace0 \ub9d0\ud588\ub2e4.\n\n

Policy Rate Path<\/h3>\n\uadf8\ub294 \uc9c0\ub09c\ud574\uc758 \uae08\ub9ac \uc778\ud558\uac00 \uc5f0\uc900(Fed, \ubbf8\uad6d \uc911\uc559\uc740\ud589)\uc758 \u2018\ub450 \uac00\uc9c0 \ubaa9\ud45c(dual mandates)\u2019\uc778 \ubb3c\uac00 \uc548\uc815\uacfc \uace0\uc6a9 \uadf9\ub300\ud654\uc758 \uade0\ud615\uc744 \ub354 \uc798 \ub9de\ucdc4\ub2e4\uace0 \ub9d0\ud588\ub2e4. \ub610\ud55c \ucd5c\uadfc \ubb3c\uac00 \uc9c0\ud45c\uac00 \uae0d\uc815\uc801\uc774\uc5c8\ub2e4\uace0 \ud588\uace0, \ubb3c\uac00\uc0c1\uc2b9\ub960\uc774 \uc62c\ud574 2.5%\ub85c \ub454\ud654\ud55c \ub4a4 2027\ub144\uc5d0 2%\uac00 \ub420 \uac83\uc73c\ub85c \uc608\uc0c1\ud588\ub2e4.\n\n\uc70c\ub9ac\uc5c4\uc2a4\ub294 \uad00\uc138(\uc218\uc785\ud488\uc5d0 \ubd99\ub294 \uc138\uae08)\uac00 \ubb3c\uac00\uc0c1\uc2b9\uc744 \ub9cc\ub4e0 \uc911\uc694\ud55c \uc694\uc778\uc774\uc5c8\uc9c0\ub9cc, \uc774\ub7f0 \uc555\ub825\uc740 \uc62c\ud574 \uc57d\ud574\uc9c8 \uac83\uc774\ub77c\uace0 \ub9d0\ud588\ub2e4. \uadf8\ub294 \uad00\uc138\ub85c \uc778\ud55c \u20182\ucc28 \ud30c\uae09(second-round impact, \ucc98\uc74c \uc624\ub978 \uac00\uaca9\uc774 \uc784\uae08\u00b7\ub2e4\ub978 \uac00\uaca9\uc744 \ub2e4\uc2dc \ubc00\uc5b4 \uc62c\ub9ac\ub294 \uc5f0\uc1c4 \ud6a8\uacfc)\u2019\uc774 \uc9c0\uae08\uae4c\uc9c0\ub294 \ud06c\uc9c0 \uc54a\uc558\uace0, \uad00\uc138 \uc601\ud5a5\uc758 \ub300\ubd80\ubd84\uc774 \uad6d\ub0b4\uc5d0\uc11c \ub098\ud0c0\ub0ac\ub2e4\uace0 \ub367\ubd99\uc600\ub2e4.\n\n\uadf8\ub294 \uacbd\uc81c\uac00 \uacac\uc870\ud558\uace0 \uace0\uc6a9\uc2dc\uc7a5\uc774 \uc548\uc815\ub418\ub294 \uc911\uc774\ub77c\uace0 \ub9d0\ud588\ub2e4. \uc2e4\uc5c5\ub960(\uc77c\uc790\ub9ac\ub97c \ucc3e\ub294 \uc0ac\ub78c \uc911 \uc77c\uc790\ub9ac\uac00 \uc5c6\ub294 \ube44\uc728)\uc774 \uc62c\ud574\uc640 \ub0b4\ub144\uc5d0 \uc870\uae08 \ub354 \ub0b4\ub824\uac08 \uac83\uc73c\ub85c \ubd24\uace0, 2026\ub144 \uad6d\ub0b4\ucd1d\uc0dd\uc0b0(GDP, \ud55c \ub098\ub77c\uac00 \ub9cc\ub4e0 \uc7ac\ud654\u00b7\uc11c\ube44\uc2a4\uc758 \ucd1d\ud569) \uc131\uc7a5\ub960\uc744 2.5%\ub85c \uc804\ub9dd\ud588\ub2e4.\n\n

Inflation And Market Positioning<\/h3>\n\uc774\ub7f0 \uc2e0\uc911\ud55c \ud750\ub984\uc744 \ub4b7\ubc1b\uce68\ud558\ub294 \ubb3c\uac00 \uc0c1\ud669\uc740 \uae08\ub9ac \uc2a4\uc651(interest rate swaps, \uace0\uc815\uae08\ub9ac\uc640 \ubcc0\ub3d9\uae08\ub9ac \uc774\uc790\ub97c \uc11c\ub85c \ubc14\uafb8\ub294 \uacc4\uc57d) \uc2dc\uc7a5\uc758 \ubcc0\ub3d9\uc131(\uac00\uaca9\uc774 \ud06c\uac8c \ud754\ub4e4\ub9ac\ub294 \uc815\ub3c4)\uc744 \ub192\uc740 \uc218\uc900\uc73c\ub85c \uc720\uc9c0\uc2dc\ud0ac \uc218 \uc788\ub2e4. 2025\ub144\uc5d0 \uc804\ub144 \ub300\ube44 \uc18c\ube44\uc790\ubb3c\uac00\uc9c0\uc218(CPI, \uac00\uacc4\uac00 \uc0ac\ub294 \ubb3c\uac74\u00b7\uc11c\ube44\uc2a4 \uac00\uaca9 \ubcc0\ud654\ub97c \ubcf4\uc5ec\uc8fc\ub294 \uc9c0\ud45c)\uac00 \ud06c\uac8c \ub0b4\ub824\uac14\uc9c0\ub9cc, \ucd5c\uadfc 2026\ub144 2\uc6d4 \uc218\uce58\ub294 \uc11c\ube44\uc2a4 \uac00\uaca9 \uc601\ud5a5\uc73c\ub85c \uc804\uccb4 \ubb3c\uac00\uc0c1\uc2b9\ub960\uc774 2.8%\ub85c \uc798 \ub0b4\ub824\uac00\uc9c0 \uc54a\uc558\ub2e4. \uc774\ub7f0 2% \ubaa9\ud45c\ub97c \uc6c3\ub3c4\ub294 \ubb3c\uac00\uac00 \uacc4\uc18d\ub418\uba74, \ub2e8\uae30\ubb3c \ucc44\uad8c \uc120\ubb3c(front-month bond futures, \ub9cc\uae30\uac00 \uac00\uc7a5 \uac00\uae4c\uc6b4 \ucc44\uad8c \uc120\ubb3c)\uc758 \uc0c1\uc2b9 \uc5ec\ub825\uc740 \uc81c\ud55c\ub420 \uc218 \uc788\ub2e4.\n\n\uacbd\uc81c\uc758 \uae30\ubcf8 \ud750\ub984\uc740 \uc5ec\uc804\ud788 \uacac\uc870\ud558\ub2e4. 2025\ub144 4\ubd84\uae30 GDP\ub294 2.3% \uc131\uc7a5\ud588\uace0, 2026\ub144 2\uc6d4 \uc2e4\uc5c5\ub960\uc774 \ub0ae\uc740 3.7%\ub97c \uc720\uc9c0\ud574 \uace0\uc6a9 \uc57d\ud654 \ub54c\ubb38\uc5d0 \uc5f0\uc900\uc774 \uae08\ub9ac\ub97c \uae09\ud788 \ub0b4\ub9b4 \uc774\uc720\ub294 \ud06c\uc9c0 \uc54a\ub2e4. \uc774\ub7f0 \uac15\uc138\ub294 S&P 500 \uac19\uc740 \uc8fc\uac00\uc9c0\uc218(equity indices, \uc8fc\uc2dd\uc2dc\uc7a5 \uc804\uccb4\ub97c \ub300\ud45c\ud558\ub294 \uc9c0\ud45c)\uac00 \ud070 \ubc29\ud5a5\uc131 \uc6c0\uc9c1\uc784\ubcf4\ub2e4 \uc77c\uc815 \ubc94\uc704 \uc548\uc5d0\uc11c \uc6c0\uc9c1\uc77c \uac83\uc5d0 \ubca0\ud305\ud558\ub294 \uc635\uc158(options, \uc815\ud574\uc9c4 \uac00\uaca9\uc5d0 \uc0ac\uace0\ud314 \uc218 \uc788\ub294 \uad8c\ub9ac) \uc804\ub7b5\uc774 \uc720\ub9ac\ud560 \uc218 \uc788\uc74c\uc744 \uc2dc\uc0ac\ud55c\ub2e4.\n\n\ub2e4\ub9cc, 1\ub144 \uc804\uc5d0\ub294 \ub35c \uc8fc\ubaa9\ubc1b\ub358 \ub300\uc678 \uc704\ud5d8\uc774 \uc774\uc81c\ub294 \ubd80\uac01\ub418\uace0 \uc788\ub2e4. \ud638\ub974\ubb34\uc988 \ud574\ud611(Strait of Hormuz, \uc911\ub3d9 \uc6d0\uc720 \uc218\uc1a1\uc758 \ud575\uc2ec \ud1b5\ub85c) \uae34\uc7a5\uc774 \ub2e4\uc2dc \ucee4\uc9c0\uba74\uc11c \ube0c\ub80c\ud2b8\uc720(Brent crude, \uad6d\uc81c \uc720\uac00\uc758 \ub300\ud45c \uae30\uc900)\uac00 \ubc30\ub7f4\ub2f9 90\ub2ec\ub7ec\ub97c \ub118\uc5c8\uace0, \uc774\ub294 \ubb3c\uac00\ub97c \uc7a1\uc73c\ub824\ub294 \uc5f0\uc900\uc5d0 \ubd80\ub2f4\uc774 \ub41c\ub2e4. \uc5d0\ub108\uc9c0 ETF(\uc0c1\uc7a5\uc9c0\uc218\ud380\ub4dc, \uc8fc\uc2dd\ucc98\ub7fc \uac70\ub798\ub418\ub294 \ud380\ub4dc)\uc5d0 \ub300\ud55c \uc7a5\uae30 \ucf5c(long calls, \uac00\uaca9\uc774 \uc624\ub97c \ub54c \uc774\uc775\uc774 \ub098\ub294 \ub9e4\uc218 \uad8c\ub9ac)\uc740 \uc704\ud5d8\uc744 \uc904\uc774\ub294 \ud5e4\uc9c0(hedge, \uc190\uc2e4 \uc704\ud5d8\uc744 \uc904\uc774\uae30 \uc704\ud55c \uac70\ub798)\ub85c \uace0\ub824\ud560 \ub9cc\ud558\ub2e4. \uc774\ub294 2025\ub144 \uad00\uc138\ubc1c \ubb3c\uac00 \uc555\ub825\uc774 \uc9c0\ub098\uac00\uba74 \uc904\uc5b4\ub4e4 \uac83\uc73c\ub85c \uc5ec\uaca8\uc84c\ub358 \uacf5\uae09 \uce21 \ubb3c\uac00(supply-side inflation, \uacf5\uae09 \ucc28\uc9c8\ub85c \ube44\uc6a9\uc774 \uc62c\ub77c \uc0dd\uae30\ub294 \ubb3c\uac00 \uc0c1\uc2b9) \uc704\ud5d8\uc774 \ub2e4\uc2dc \ub098\ud0c0\ub0a0 \uc218 \uc788\uc74c\uc744 \ub73b\ud55c\ub2e4.\n\n\n

VT Markets \ub77c\uc774\ube0c \uacc4\uc815\uc744 \ub9cc\ub4e4\uace0 \uc9c0\uae08 \ubc14\ub85c \uac70\ub798<\/a>\ub97c \uc2dc\uc791\ud558\uc138\uc694.<\/b><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

\ub274\uc695 Fed \uc70c\ub9ac\uc5c4\uc2a4\ub294 \uc778\ud50c\ub808\uc774\uc158 \uc644\ud654 \uc2dc \uae08\ub9ac \uc778\ud558\uac00 \ud544\uc694\ud558\ub418, \uacfc\ub3c4\ud55c \uae34\ucd95 \ubc29\uc9c0 \ubaa9\uc801\uc774\ub77c \ubc1d\ud614\ub2e4. \uad00\uc138\ubc1c \ubb3c\uac00 \uc555\ub825\uc740 \ub454\ud654 \uc804\ub9dd. \uadf8\ub7ec\ub098 2.8% \ubb3c\uac00\u00b7\uc720\uac00 \uae09\ub4f1\uc774 \ubcc0\uc218. – vtmarkets.com<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":103,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-39515","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/39515","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/103"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=39515"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/39515\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=39515"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=39515"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=39515"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}